It’s widely believed and often proven that winning an Independent Spirit Award the day before the Academy Awards is the kiss of death for nominees on Oscar Night. In a year as topsy-turvy as this, it remains to be seen whether that conventional wisdom will hold true again this weekend. Sasha, Craig and I didn’t talk with each other in advance about how each of us were leaning and our conflicting instincts have caused us to split off in 3 different directions. You can find our predictions after the cut, as well as a complete list of the Spirit Awards nominees so you can get your own guesses on record in the comments.
The Independent Spirit Awards will be broadcast on IFC at 10 p.m. ET and 2 hours later on the West Coast at 10 p.m. PT — since they still don’t have a handle on this whole concept of how “we all have the internet now.” Doesn’t much matter since the ceremony itself will be held earlier in the day beginning on the red carpet around noon.
Our predictions after the cut.