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Independent Spirit Awards predictions

beasts wild

It’s widely believed and often proven that winning an Independent Spirit Award the day before the Academy Awards is the kiss of death for nominees on Oscar Night.   In a year as topsy-turvy as this, it remains to be seen whether that conventional wisdom will hold true again this weekend.  Sasha, Craig and I didn’t talk with each other in advance about how each of us were leaning and our conflicting instincts have caused us to split off in 3 different directions. You can find our predictions after the cut, as well as a complete list of the Spirit Awards nominees so you can get your own guesses on record in the comments.

The Independent Spirit Awards will be broadcast on IFC at 10 p.m. ET and 2 hours later on the West Coast at 10 p.m. PT — since they still don’t have a handle on this whole concept of how “we all have the internet now.”  Doesn’t much matter since the ceremony itself will be held earlier in the day beginning on the red carpet around noon.

Our predictions after the cut.

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Sasha Stone’s picks:

BEST FEATURE
Silver Linings Playbook

BEST DIRECTOR
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST SCREENPLAY
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST FIRST FEATURE
The Perks of Being a Wallflower

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Rashida Jones & Will McCormack, Celeste and Jesse Forever

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
Middle of Nowhere

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST MALE LEAD
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Ann Dowd, Compliance
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST DOCUMENTARY
How to Survive a Plague

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Amour (France), Michael Haneke
=====Craig Kennedy’s picks:

Picture: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Director: Benh Zeitlin
Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom
First Feature: Perks of Being a Wallflower
First Screenplay: Robot and Franky
Cassavetes: The Color Wheel
Female Lead: Mary Elizabeth Winstead
Male Lead: Jack Black
Supporting Female: Helen Hunt
Supporting Male: Matthew McConaughey
Cinematography: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Documentary: The Invisible War
International: Amour
Paget Producers: Nobody Walks
Someone to Watch: Pincus, David Fenster
Truer than Fiction: Leviathan
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Ryan Adams’ picks:

BEST FEATURE
Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST DIRECTOR
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST SCREENPLAY
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On

BEST FIRST FEATURE
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Stephen Chbosky (director);  Lianne Halfon, John Malkovich, Russell Smith (producers)

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Derek Connolly, Safety Not Guaranteed

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
Middle of Nowhere
Ava DuVernay (writer-director-producer); Howard Barish, Paul Garnes (producers)

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere

BEST MALE LEAD
Matthew McConaughey, Killer Joe

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Michael Péna, End of Watch

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roman Vasyanov, End of Watch

BEST DOCUMENTARY
How to Survive a Plague

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Amour (France), Michael Haneke

16th ANNUAL PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD
Prince Avalanche, Derrick Tseng (producer)

19th ANNUAL SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD
Electrick Children, Rebecca Thomas (director)

STELLA ARTOIS TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD
Leviathan, Lucien Castaing-Taylor and Véréna Paravel (directors)

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2013 Spirit Awards, complete list of nominees

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BEST FEATURE
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Michael Gottwald, Dan Janvey & Josh Penn (producers)
Bernie
Liz Glotzer, Richard Linklater, David McFadzean, Dete Meserve, Judd Payne, Celine Rattray, Martin Shafer, Ginger Sledge, Matt Williams (producers)
Keep the Lights On
Marie Therese Guirgis, Lucas Joaquin, Ira Sachs (producers)
Moonrise Kingdom
Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales, Scott Rudin (producers)
Silver Linings Playbook
Bruce Cohen, Donna Gigliotti, Jonathan Gordon (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Julia Loktev, The Loneliest Planet
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST SCREENPLAY
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks
Martin McDonagh, Seven Psychopaths
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On

BEST FIRST FEATURE
(Award given to the director and producer)
Fill the Void
Rama Burshtein (director); Assaf Amir (producer)
Gimme the Loot
Adam Leon (director); Dominic Buchanan, Natalie Difford, Jamund Washington (producers)
Safety Not Guaranteed
Colin Trevorrow (director); Derek Connolly, Stephanie Langhoff, Peter Saraf, Colin Trevorrow, Marc Turtletaub (producers)
Sound of My Voice
Zal Batmanglij (director); Brit Marling, Hans Ritter, Shelley Surpin (producers)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Stephen Chbosky (director);  Lianne Halfon, John Malkovich, Russell Smith (producers)

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Rama Burshtein, Fill the Void
Derek Connolly, Safety Not Guaranteed
Christopher Ford, Robot & Frank
Rashida Jones & Will McCormack, Celeste and Jesse Forever
Jonathan Lisecki, Gayby

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
(Given to the best feature made for under $500,000. Award given to the writer, director, and producer. Executive Producers are not awarded.)
Breakfast with Curtis
Laura Colella (writer-director-producer)
Middle of Nowhere
Ava DuVernay (writer-director-producer); Howard Barish, Paul Garnes (producers)
Mosquita y Mari
Aurora Guerrero (writer-director); Chad Burris (producer)
Starlet
Sean Baker (writer-director); Chris Bergoch (writer); Blake Ashman-Kipervaser, Kevin Chinoy, Patrick Cunningham, Chris Maybach, Francesca Silvestri (producers)
The Color Wheel
Alex Ross Perry (writer-director-producer); Carlen Altman (writer)

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Linda Cardellini, Return
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

BEST MALE LEAD
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Thure Lindhardt, Keep the Lights On
Matthew McConaughey, Killer Joe
Wendell Pierce, Four

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Rosemarie DeWitt, Your Sister’s Sister
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Brit Marling, Sound of My Voice
Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
David Oyelowo, Middle of Nowhere
Michael Péna, End of Watch
Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths
Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Yoni Brook, Valley of Saints
Lol Crawley, Here
Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Roman Vasyanov, End of Watch
Robert Yeoman, Moonrise Kingdom

BEST DOCUMENTARY
(Award given to the director and producer)
How to Survive a Plague
David France (director); David France, Howard Gertler (producers)
Marina Abramović: The Artist is Present
Matthew Akers (director); Maro Chermayeff, Jeff Dupre (producers)
The Central Park Five
Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon (directors-producers)
The Invisible War
Kirby Dick (director); Tanner King Barklow, Amy Ziering (producers)
The Waiting Room
Peter Nicks (director-producer); Linda Davis, William B. Hirsch (producers)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
(Award given to the director)
Amour (France), Michael Haneke
Once Upon A Time in Anatolia (Turkey), Nuri Bilge Ceylan
Rust And Bone (France/Belgium), Jacques Audiard
Sister (Switzerland), Ursula Meier
War Witch (Democratic Republic of Congo), Kim Nguyen

16th ANNUAL PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD
(The 16th annual Piaget Producers Award honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources demonstrate the creativity, tenacity, and vision required to produce quality, independent films. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant funded by Piaget.)
Nobody Walks, Alicia Van Couvering (producer)
Prince Avalanche, Derrick Tseng (producer)
Stones in the Sun, Mynette Louie (producer)

19th ANNUAL SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD
(The 19th annual Someone to Watch Award recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet received appropriate recognition. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant.)
Pincus, David Fenster (director)
Gimme the Loot, Adam Leon (director)
Electrick Children, Rebecca Thomas (director)

STELLA ARTOIS TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD
(The 18th annual Truer Than Fiction Award is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant.)
Leviathan, Lucien Castaing-Taylor and Véréna Paravel (directors)
The Waiting Room, Peter Nicks (director)
Only the Young, Jason Tippet & Elizabeth Mims (directors)

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD
(Given to one film’s director, casting director, and its ensemble cast)
Starlet, Sean Baker (director); Julia Kim (casting director); Dree Hemingway, Besedka Johnson, Karren Karagulian, Stella Maeve, James Ransone (cast)