–>Nate Silver takes a crack at Oscar predictions by offering up the general consensus. He admits that in many categories there is just no way of knowing for sure. The only thing he doesn’t factor in in his stats is Academy history itself and relies completely, as so many now do, on precursors. This year’s Oscars will pit precursor strength against Academy history and the Academy will likely lose.
–>Despite Lincoln taking an unusual pummeling from some reporters at the NY Times this year, my pal David Carr among them, their readers, by an enormous majority, pick Lincoln as the winner. New York Times readers are my people. Most people “out there” are going to be shocked when Argo is picked because they haven’t been following the drama. No one in a sane world would ever believe that this year went down the way it did unless they lived through it, which we all are currently doing, mind-bogglingly, unrelentingly.
More than 75,000 readers haven’t waited on her guidance to start their ballots. Even though “Argo” has surged among Hollywood insiders, the reader choice is clearly for “Lincoln” for best picture, director, actor and adapted screenplay.
–> 17 Unusual Oscar Records [TIME]
–>Ethan Hawke On the Oscars:
“People want to turn everything in this country into a competition,” he tellsGotham (via The New York Post), so “it’s clear who the winner is and who the loser is. … It’s why they like to announce the grosses of movies, because it’s a way of saying, ‘This one is No. 1.'”
He continues: “It’s so asinine … if you look at how many forgettable, stupid movies have won Oscars and how many mediocre performers have Oscars above their fireplace. Making a priority of chasing these fake carrots and money and dubious accolades, I think it’s really destructive.”
Maybe this signals a swing back to the days when stars didn’t believe in showing up at awards shows. When I was a young woman no respectable actor went to the Golden Globes. Heck, now they all go to the Critics Choice.
–>Infographic – 14 things you didn’t know about the Oscars
EDIT I NEED TO ADD IMPORTANT TO CONTEXTUALIZE THIS POINT ABOVE: “-effectively abandoning the core principle that rational and makes sense that a film that does not win best director as well as best picture AND A MAIN ACTOR AWARD OR ALTERNATIVELY AT LEAST 3 TECH ACHIEVE AWARDS at least is not a deserving winner only a deserving contender”
that what i meant
re the title of that article: ‘oscar turns its back on the rules’ how about this one?
quite bemusing, amusing and extremely sad for the passionate movie going public.
But i add to that they most certainly right for oscar are:
-abandoning 3/4 of a century old principle that the most nominated film wins and most of the time deserves to win best pic and the big ones
-abandoning common sense and logic= a film that is both universally acclaimed and embraced with upmost enthusiasm by the public is a deserved oscar winner
-abandoning common sense of the principal that AMPAS stands for academy or motion picture arts and sciences meaning in translation the best of the best is either memorable in ensuring years to come or is innovative or groundvbreaking or bold
-abandoning the principle that films for best pic winner is not determined by celebrity status or iowe u nonsense, but rather the director that put the most time effort and energy and the hype by the public and critics leading to it and the pay off and outcome is as good as the speculation.
-effectively abandoning the core principle that rational and makes sense that a film that does not win best director as well as best picture at least is not a deserving winner only a deserving contender
-potentially risk of jeopardizing oscars integrity and repuation to the public that incidentally propr up it ratings by giving barely 3 oscars at the most to the best pic winner with potentially only one or 2 of those ‘big’ awards
-abandoning the wisdom that the fiilm that wins a balance between most acting awards and tech awards shoudl win best picture.
I predict lincoln will win 3 oscars sadly not best pic but i really hope i wrong…and that will tie it with the so called best picture bullshit of the year which in itself only will win 3 and i wonder has there been any time in oscar history where the best picture film winner wins only as muany awards as the runner up?
See, I’d argue that Kevin O’Connell and Greg P. Russell’s losing streaks have actually helped their fame. Let’s be honest, sound editing is a pretty anonymous job — would YOU know these guys’ names were it not for their 0-for-20 and 0-for-16 records?
Thanks for taking some of the heat, Ryan. Still doesn’t justify my attitude, which was really something akin to red flag waving. It didn’t even occur to me to Email either of you, even though I’ve been coming to this site routinely since Year 1.
When Riva didn’t move at all for 10 days after the BAFTA win, I kinda went ape shit.
Point taken.
I’m sorry, Sasha. I didn’t mean it personally. I guess I get a little nuts like everyone does this time of year. I’ll take your Email suggestion into account. Thanks. I’m really not a dick……..I do have OCD though.
Paul Voorhies,
I’ll shoulder some of the blame. I saw a couple of your reminders in the comments and always forgot to follow up on them. But yes, an email is always the best way to get our attention about site issues that need attending.
“Also, that ’14 things you didn’t know about the Oscars’ thing features several things I did know, and at least one thing that’s not even true: Peter O’Toole is not the biggest loser. Compare his eight losses to Kevin O’Connell’s 20. Hmm I wonder…”
I was about to write almost the exact words. I don’t think we’ve seen a factual infographic this year. Not one. Anyone care to make one? O’Toole has it better than a few of THIS year’s nominees alone.
And yes, those are facts that many people know.
Because she was probably trying to ACCURATELY predict the race. It wasn’t until the BAFTA win that people were seriously considering her for the win. Up until then it Chastain vs. Lawrence. When Chastain got knocked out of the race, the buzz shifted solely to Lawrence, until Riva’s BAFTA win. Slowly, over the past two weeks, buzz has been building for her, and I guess Sasha is going out on a limb and predicting her for the win. Doesn’t mean she wasn’t on the bandwagon, just meant she didn’t think she had a realistic shot until post-BAFTA buzz.
I still think she’ll move it back to Lawrence by gametime, and probably rightfully so.
Then why has Rmanuelle Riva been sitting at 5 for the last 2 months????? Duh. It wasn’t until this week that Sasha moved her even a notch, and that’s only after I made, like, 10 comments about how STOO-PID it was that she was sitting there at 5.
Then why has Rmanuelle Riva been sitting at 5 for the last 2 months????? Duh. It wasn’t until this week that Sasha moved her even a notch, and that’s only after I made, like, 10 comments about how STOO-PID it was that she was sitting there at 5.
It was laziness. Nothing more. Your comments were appreciated, I suppose, but next time you should write me an email. You don’t get dick points for that, though, but it is more efficient.
Paul Voorhies,
Sasha’s been banging the “Amour” drum all season. Maybe “you’re just getting it now”?
So, she’s just “getting” the Amour thing now?
ethan hawke says chasing Oscar is destructive. probably humiliating too (campaigning I mean), but it is still an honor to win it. if you don’t like Hollywood what are you doing there? people can survive without your acting. and I like Hawke, but comments like this make me angry, because people think they are cool if they trash on something other people care about. I personally don’t believe in best in art. it’s all matter of taste. for me Oscars are fun, but if I were a filmmaker (pipe dream)I would be honored to win, even though I wouldn’t agree on making an Oscar-bait movie just to win it.
Paul Voorhies, you are a fool. Sasha saw Amour last May, before you did. Do I have to tell you a third time?
Thomas Newman wrote a beautiful haunting score for White Oleander. It’s short but dreamily ambient.
My favorite obscure soundtrack is by Miles Davis for the film Siesta.
My favorite well known soundtrack is Jerry Goldsmith’s Chinatown with John Barry’s Body Heat a close second.
Hawke as quoted by THR: ‘”It’s so asinine … if you look at how many forgettable, stupid movies have won Oscars and how many mediocre performers have Oscars above their fireplace. Making a priority of chasing these fake carrots and money and dubious accolades, I think it’s really destructive.”’
—
Hawke gave a good performance in Training Day and, thanks to their great on-screen chemistry, contributed in part to Washington’s success that year (in addition to — what we many of us do believe to be another factor — the BAFTA backstage[?] incident concerning a third party). Hawke’s thriller flick is reportedly slated to be released in US in May this year as well.
Apparently, he’s STILL WORKING inside the studios rather than going indie, not to mention Oscars BP winners are neither really stupid or that bad. So, the way I see it, he was simply being too harsh, careless, and rude to the hands […]. He could have been more careful next time.
(Yes, sometimes “they” made bad choices; but “stupid movies”??? Come on, Mr. Hawke….)
When these people put these “facts” and information together, you’d think they’d at least do more than a cursory research job. It’s sad to see how little people know about the Oscars and yet still get paid to “report” about them.
For “biggest loser,” I saw that Kevin O’Connell was mentioned above, but Roger Deakins is 0 for 10 and Thomas Newman is 0 for 11 — so there’s at two more bigger losers than Peter O’Toole.
Then on the TIME site, they only list Billy Wilder as having won for producing, writing, and directing in a single year despite the fact that the Coens, James Brooks, Peter Jackson, and Francis Coppola accomplished the same feat. And if you want to get really picky, Brooks was the first person to do all three solo.
I should look for more Oscar reporting/writing freelance work…
Uh-oh!! Emanuelle Riva from 5 to 2 to 1, with a bullet, in just the last few days. Looks like somebody just saw Amour this week.
I loved Riva’s performance, but I love Lawrence as well. Jennifer may be too far ahead already, but if the votes were coming in next week, I think Riva might take it. It’ll be Nip/Tuck.
@PaulH here. Here you have, my friend, your BA winner of this year she and her crocodile tears love you back
http://25.media.tumblr.com/f25e183717a4f0bec0fa8b4a803f910b/tumblr_mh4t36ESBM1rddilvo1_500.gif
Well, Nate Silver’s on board Team Lawrence, so that’s good enough for me to seal the deal. He did pick the 2012 election down to the last delegate for president.
@Paddy I was just pointing out something that was on CNN at the exact same time that I opened this page. I thought Sasha might be interested. My bad.
Ethan Hawke is a good case of ‘love the message, hate the messenger’. His whole thespian with doing stage work and writing poetry makes me think he did not have to stretch much to play Troy in Reality Bites.
And speaking of the old Oscars, I feel like when the awards telecast was split between New York and LA, when a lot of actors were in NY for theater or whatever, there was clearly a smug since of superiority in the New York side from reading the history on the awards show. You’d know that if they still had that all of the actors would be at the NY party to be taken more serious or want validation in being surrounded by the thespians than industry people.
Kate Authur’s piece of going to the 1979 Oscars as a kid on Buzzfeed was wonderful. The Richard Dreyfuss tidbit and observation of his behavior that night was juicy.
Anybody who puts Peter O’Toole and the word “loser” in the same sentence is a…loser. He never won, true, because he was never the flavor of the month. Somebody “lost” because of that, but it wasn’t Mr O’Toole.
I’d like to read the whole content on the links provided first before making a comment.
And I haven’t finished it yet.
That said, (my comment) for now: Paddy Mullholland — kudos — is correct: Kevin O’Connell might not be as well known […] since, naturally, he is working behind the scene, but doubtless he’s the most unfortunate nominee. (I guess they’ve cited O’Toole’s name because of their carelessness, and that as Christophe’s also pointed out, his is more of a household name. Still, in the name of accuracy, Mullholland’s finding is correct.)
—
A la Arnie’s Terminator, I say: AAAl BEE BACHK (after checking out all the links properly)….xD
^^I guess they meant the biggest “famous” loser. I’m not sure their readers know or care about Kevin O’Connell even though they totally should!
“their readers, by an enormous majority, pick Lincoln as the winner. ”
68% of the readers picked something other than Lincoln.
Also, that ’14 things you didn’t know about the Oscars’ thing features several things I did know, and at least one thing that’s not even true: Peter O’Toole is not the biggest loser. Compare his eight losses to Kevin O’Connell’s 20. Hmm I wonder…
Yiiiiiieeeeeeaaaahhhhhhhh… Jesse Williams might argue with you, Antoinette, on Django Unchained’s ‘black saviour’.
There was a black savior in Django? I thought it was Obi-Wan, I mean Christoph.
2013. The year when a movie about Lincoln is criticized for having a white savior.
I was going to say at least now we know one thespian who won’t be nominated again any time soon, but then I remembered Joaquin Phoenix, so I guess we can safely add Ethan Hawke to our 2013/14 Oscar predictions.
As for Nate Silver, it’s really nice of him to give it a try, nevertheless his work on predicting elections is based on hard statistical data: polls and demographics, whereas we don’t have that kind of official numbers in the oscar race, only rumors, unless you consider the guild awards as polls, even though most guild members are not part of the Academy.
On CNN they’re talking about LINCOLN and other Oscary movies where the black people have a white savior. And how it’s important to winning an Oscar. They’re saying a movie with a black savior, like DJANGO, would never make it but something like LINCOLN or THE HELP is more favorable.
Well there goes Ethan Hawke’s (already slim) chances of receiving some Academy love for “Before Midnight.” Or maybe he can Phoenix his way in. Anyway, I like his sentiments.