Oscar Podcast episode 20 with Craig Kennedy and Ryan Adams — we talk about our Oscar predictions, such as they are.

Vulture offers up Four Oscar tactics that work:

Oscar Tactic No. 3: Act humble — even if you’re not. (Especially if you’re not.)
Humility — even false humility, given the outsize egos of so many male Academy members — is essential. Says our first consultant, “I was working with an Oscar-nominated actress recently, and she told me she went to the Sorbonne … I was like, ‘Wow! That’s a great nugget — we should use that in interviews and press materials,’ and she was immediately like, ‘Whatever you do, do not tell people I went to the Sorbonne!’ And she was right: This is a town that doesn’t appreciate or reward smart women … It probably hurt Sharon Stone’s career immeasurably when she claimed she was in MENSA.”

Dick Gordon of The Story talks to one of the people who hid away with Canadians during the real Argo story. It’s interesting to see just how far from the truth Argo really is – as in, the real hero was probably Ken Taylor. Nonetheless, the movie is a celebration of that time, of Hollywood.

Oh, and His Royal Highness will be attending the ceremony:


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  • Castle Wilson

    the ARtist + huGO = ARGO

  • Antoinette

    I’m hoping that they called in Nicholson to do stunt singing for Crowe.

  • 1. ‘Lincoln’ wins actor, director, supporting actor. If The Academy steps back and wisens up Kushner could also win. If the Academy is really stupid it gets just one.

    2. ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ could take two – sound, Original; Screenplay. I don’t think that Jessica Chastain can get it. Mark Boal is more likely to win.

    3. The techs get split evenly between ‘Les Miserables’ and ‘Life Of Pi’.

    4. The three films from Weinstein get just one Oscar.

    5. Whoever gets best director will be sneered at by fans of the other films because Affleck wasn’t there.

  • The Dude

    While campaigning helps, there’s plenty of cases in which an actor won with minimum campaigning- Monique and Cristian Bale are good examples. Judi Dench usually doesn’t even shows up for anything but the BAFTAs and Oscars.

    And sometimes campaigning too hard might make you look desperate.

  • Susan

    Thank you for the enjoyable surprises I find on Awards Daily, be it insightful analyses of the Oscar season, digressive opinions, thought provoking videos, or amusing photographs like the one in this post, that remind me of artists and films of seasons past. I return each year for many reasons – including the surprises and challenges and memories.

    Thank you too for being a part of my 2013 Oscar night experience.

    aka Haroldsmaude

  • daveinprogress

    Luv hearing you guys, thanks for this.

    The unpredictible nature of this year’s race is making this year’s presentation the most interesting and exciting for MANY years. It reminds me of telecasts back when i was a kid, and I knew next to nothing about the contenders or the pre-cursors. The wide open races that they were to me threw up so many surprises.

    Ironically, the more I know, the less I really know how to predict it. Even with all the wonderful insights discovered here and shared perspectives, this year more than any other, it is like fumbling in the dark. But it’s been a fun time. It’s been so insightful to have so many other views to bounce off.

  • Christophe

    lol, I have no idea why Americans think La Sorbonne is such a big deal! We have intensive prep schools and private schools that are much more renowned in France and in the business world than our public universities (“schools preparing for unemployment”) yet when I wanted to find an internship in Hollywood I needed to get an equivalence certificate from La Sorbonne in order to be taken seriously.

  • Koleś

    Jack’s showing up? I’m f*cking watching.

  • Christophe

    If I had known that beforehand, I would have gone directly to La Sorbonne with the other slackers instead of toiling from 6am to midnight in a stupid prep school, only to realize it doesn’t mean a thing in the world of filmmaking where glitz and name recognition is all that counts 🙂

  • Christophe

    #1 Show your hunger – “Marion Cotillard moved into the Chateau Marmont and let everyone know she wanted it.” If the distributor pays for it, then you can’t blame her, who wouldn’t want to stay there for free?

    #2 Be a beautiful woman – Emmanuelle Riva is also “actually still a babe” even ghough she’s over 80.

    #3 Act Humble – Jessica Chastain’s speech at the GG reeked a little of desperation but it wasn’t entitlement! What do we care if she wasn’t on the map before? She worked her ass off trying to find roles on TV and dead-end films without having Hollywood’s PR machine behind her back, that’s much more admirable than spending all those years within the studio system with all the attention and money it provides.

    #4 It’s my turn – the Academy honorary award might be the most impressive of all: Welles, Chaplin, Renoir, Kurosawa, O’Toole, Bacall…


  • Rob Y


    You seem to gravitate to the fact that no film with 11 or more nominations have earned more than 5 Oscars without picking up Picture. The implication is that if you start winning a lot of Oscars that you must get the support for picture. Cabaret had 8 out of 10. Sure it did not get 11 noms, so your stat is correct, but it seems kinda disingenuous to not consider that film as a counterexample. It’s an outlier definitely though.

  • Paul Voorhies

    A supporting actor question: Was Chris Waltz not nominated for a SAG for Django because he was placed in the lead category, or was he snubbed for supporting outright? Anyone, anyone??

  • The J Viewer

    Thanks for doing the latest podcast and some of the final predictions.

    [Still listening at the moment but here’s the deal] At 1:19 give or take, re a question about a famous costume designer/nominee who passed away reportedly on January 21, 2012, her name was Eiko ISHIOKA [R.I.P], an illustrious Japanese costume/graphic designer and art director. She won a Grammy for the artwork she’d created for Mile Davis’ album Tutu, as well as an Academy Award for Best Costume Design for Bram Stoker’s Dracula, among other nominated and victory pieces.

    This year, she is nominated for Mirror Mirror as well.

    (I guess from the Oscars context Ryan(?) is talking about this lady.)

    Cheers. : )

  • The J Viewer

    Clarification: “At 1:19 give or take” = At 1:19:xx give or take.

  • steve50

    Loved the last podcast, guys, esp. “shit parade”. It’s amazing that you all sound pretty much resigned to what’s going to happen, then that spark of hope ignites, voices get higher and faster, then – clunk – back to reality.

    Always enjoy them.

    So Jack is back. I’d love it if he was presenting Best Picture, opens the envelope, and says “Brokeback Mountain” as a joke. If he does present BP, frontrunners will be crapping their pants given the history.

  • Pierre de Plume

    Paul Voorhies — I seem to recall reading that SAG voters didn’t receive screeners of Django until late – or maybe not at all.

    About the podcast:

    Long as it is, this discussion held my interest throughout. (On a side note, I love the sound of all your voices, and Ryan seems to be losing his accent.)

    As emotionally difficult as this season has been (for Lincoln fans), the unpredictability has been something of a consolation. Thing is, when all is said and done, Oscar always seems to make wierd sense when placed against the past.

    I’m gonna stick up for The Artist — a film that I originally wasn’t impressed with but that resonated emotionally a great deal upon subsequent viewing when I accepted the romantic angle — so the film has that going for it even though it wasn’t the best of the year.
    Your discussion of the good feelings one is left with when leaving the theater reminds me that my feelings after Lincoln were quite deep and kept me enthralled for 45 minutes. For all the wonderment of Life of Pi, though, I think we should remember that, despite its excellence, the film really takes the viewer through an emotional ringer, one that isn’t that pleasant at times; I believe this could diminish its status with more casual viewers as a “feel good” movie.

    Regarding Argo backlash — I think it’s already begun. (Not much of a shelf life.)
    In the sound editing category, I’m leaning toward Skyfall, which as I understand won the CAS awards that relate more to this category. Some are saying Pi will win because it’s the same team that won for Hugo last year. I don’t understand why this factor would necessarily lead to a repeat win. My guess is that people enjoyed Skyfall as a Bond film that’s a cut above the rest from a filmmaking standpoint. Also, with Bond getting special treatment this year (50 year anniversary), its stature among voters could give it the edge. And besides, the film’s sound editing was not only immaculate but “loud,” which seems to help with the voters.
    Sasha — didn’t you seem the Reel Geezers do their recent clip where they talk about Argo? The woman liked it and thinks it will win while the man did not care for it and is “afraid” and resigned to its inevitable win.

    Last year’s live action short, God of Love, I believe was a student film — it had the “cool” factor going for it. I think voters may prefer this year’s Curfew because it’s more of a feel-good effort and features the triple threat: writing/directing/acting. Buzhkashi Boys, though compelling in its back story, is rough around the edges and has that awful goat factor.

    I was less impressed with this year’s animated shorts, mostly because they seemed so dependent on sentiment while I tend to prefer more experimental stuff.

    Great commentary!

  • Ryman

    Always love listening to you guys talk and hearing your predictions. That’s what inspired me to create a last minute YouTube channel and make a video doing a 40 minute breakdown on what I think could win the Oscar for each category. For whoever chooses to watch this, enjoy.

    Ryman’s Oscar Predictions

  • Ryan Adams

    “(On a side note, I love the sound of all your voices, and Ryan seems to be losing his accent.)”

    Aw, that’s so nice.

    About my accent, do you mean I’m losing the southern twang or the opposite — does it seem the twang creeping in more often? I think I heard myself sounding, um, Lincolnesqe? a couple of times in the middle of recording.

    The South comes out when I’m feeling sleepier or gloomier. I was both that night.

  • CMG

    Also re: the podcast. First of all, excellent podcast.

    Argo backlash can only go so far because most people will not engage in deep discussions about it because it is not a deep movie to even people who like it. It’s like trying to talk to somebody deeply about Forrest Gump.

    I’m just glad, even briefly, we acknowledge how terribly uninteresting Affleck (different from outright terrible, he looked like he was sleepwalking and disappeared in his scenes with Arkin and Goodman) was in the leading role and how terribly under-written the hostages were. Yet somehow it wins for writing and Affleck got a BAFTA nod. There are supporting characters in Zero Dark Thirty where I can see a whole movie about them being more interesting than Affleck’s Tony Mendez.

    I still cannot believe Kushner loses. People are complaining about what is not there than what is there and the ending. Terrio’s script is getting away with under-written roles and completely manufacturing an ending that, unlike Lincoln, is much different from the historical document that also is so self-congratulatory.

    Also, I still don’t mind The Artist winning last year. My favorite movie last year was Take Shelter (followed by Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Melancholia) and my favorite nominee was Tree of Life but The Artist was fine for me, even as it was a very light, charming film. The only people who I can think were a bit bummed by The Artist’s ascendancy were partisans of Hugo who felt like Scorsese made a riskier film that while not a pastiche was also very much about the history of film.

    I was once of the crowd who loved There Will Be Blood more than No Country but over time I think it was a worthy Best Picture winner and among the worthiest. It will be bitter for PTA fans because that will probably be the closest he gets because now he is a pretty polarizing film maker.

    Also remember, Gladiator beat Traffic. Even as a Zero Dark Thirty fan who thought its shot for Best Picture chances would not have disappeared this dramatically, that Traffic lost to that made me very cynical of it actually winning. I agree with Arshwin Pinto that Zero Dark Thirty has a shot at 2 but in a separate categories of Editing/Sound Editing and Screenplay than somehow winning 2 tech awards or Actress and Screenplay.

  • steve50

    Almost forgot – IFMCA gave out their awards on Thursday:

    • LIFE OF PI, music by Mychael Danna



    • LINCOLN, music by John Williams

    • TED, music by Walter Murphy

    • SKYFALL, music by Thomas Newman

    • JOHN CARTER, music by Michael Giacchino

    • RISE OF THE GUARDIANS, music by Alexandre Desplat

    • “The Impossible Main Title” from THE IMPOSSIBLE, music by Fernando Velázquez

  • The J Viewer

    [+Semi-final Round of My Own (AD) Predictions]

    This is what I’ve come up with for my predictions so far. Still, I need to re-check it to rid it of wishful thinking elements as much as possible prior to submission.

    Number of Wins (categories +unspecified for now):

    Pi 5
    Argo 3
    Les Mis 3
    Lincoln 2
    Amour 2 *possibly down to 1 and in process giving away the spot to SLP in the final*
    Django 1
    Mirror Mirror 1

    [Plus the other seven categories won by other — for now — unnamed titles.]

  • Jason

    Sorry if it has already been posted, but are the Oscars going to be live streamed on the web this year? Very few people I know have cable television.

  • Pierre de Plume

    About my accent, do you mean I’m losing the southern twang or the opposite —

    Ryan, you didn’t sound as Southern to me as in the past. I don’t know whether you consider that a good thing or a bad thing, but I’ve always thought appealing the slight wisp of a Southern gentlemen in your voice.

  • PaulH

    And on the opposite end of things, Twilight Breaking Dawn Part 2 swept the 2013 Razzies, winning 7 to Adam Sandler’s That’s My Boy’s 2. Twilight’s ‘winners’: Worst Picture, Worst Actress (K-Stew), Worst Supporting Actor (Taylor Lautner), Worst Director (Bill Condon), Worst Screen Couple (Lautner and MacKenzie Foy), Worst Screen Ensemble. That’s My Boy scored losses in Worst Actor (Adam Sandler) and Worst Screenplay. Battleshit took the other Razzie (Rihanna, Worst Supporting Actress)

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