Guest Post by Wayne Bonner-Bell:
In the past few years, we have spent time wondering how the Oscar race would fold out. Would “Social Network” beat “The Kings Speech?” Would “The Artist” and “Argo” hold up under pressure from not only other films, but from their apparent lightweight nature? As we have been having this discussion, something very special has been happening on a smaller screen (sometimes much smaller) in our home. While some could argue that the last three best picture winners were lightweights, no one could argue about the immense storytelling that has been coming out of the television set. Many have called this the new golden age of television. Although comedy might be in a bit of flux, television drama has never been better. As the primetime Emmy nominations approach, I thought it only appropriate to take a look at the contenders for televisions biggest prize. I figure that we can tackle the comedy categories later this month. Last year’s nominees have an asterisk.
Best Drama Series
The Contenders:
Homeland* (Last year’s winner)
Mad Men*
Breaking Bad*
Downton Abbey*
Game of Thrones*
Boardwalk Empire*
The Good Wife
Justified
The Newsroom
House of Cards
The Americans
Homeland probably will win everything again – but it doesn’t deserve it. Same goes for last year.
I don’t really have “predictions”, because the emmys are getting very unpredictable lately, but I do have a list of which shows I think SHOULD win:
Drama Series
1. Breaking Bad
2. Mad Men
3. Game of Thrones
4. Homeland
5. Boardwalk Empire
6. Justified
Honorable mentions: The Americans, Downton Abbey
This will be the year that Justified finally gets it’s just due. Many would agree that it’s the most well-written show on television.
Justified (predicted winner)
Southland
The Americans
Homeland
Breaking Bad
I love the Newsroom – it is intelligent, funny, provocative and lean in its structures. Career best from Jeff Daniels. It will get a number of noms.
Definitely agree that TV is where it’s at for great american storytelling right now, it’s definitely not filling up the multiplexes.
That being said, don’t count out comedy, there are some great gems out there. Parks and Rec, Happy Endings, VEEP, Community, Archer, and Louie are all pumping out hilarious, original content. But mainstream, popular comedy is all crap admittedly, Big Bang Theory, 21/2 Men, 2 Broke Girls, Mike and Molly etc. Traditional Sitcoms need to go the way of the dodo already!
As far as the actors are concerned, I’d predict:
Lead Actor
1) Damian Lewis, Homeland
2) Bryan Cranston
3) Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
4) Jon Hamm, Mad Men
5) Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
6) Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Alt: Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Lead Actress
1) Claire Danes, Homeland
2) Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
3) Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
4) Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
5) Robin Wright, House of Cards
6) Glenn Close, Damages
Alt: Keri Russell, The Americans (with Kerry Washington right next to her)
Supporting Actor
1) Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
2) Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
3) Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
4) Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
5) Sam Waterston, The Newsroom
6) Corey Stoll, House of Cards
Alt: Rob James-Collier, Downton Abbey
Supporting Actress
1) Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
2) Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
3) Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
4) Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
5) Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
6) Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey
Alt: Morena Baccarin, Homeland
Guest Actor
1) Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife
2) Nathan Lane, The Good Wife
3) Dylan Baker, The Good Wife
4) Ray Romano, Parenthood
5) Rupert Friend, Homeland
6) Jim Beaver, Justified
Alt: Matthew Perry, The Good Wife
Guest Actress
1) Shirley MacLaine, Downton Abbey
2) Jane Fonda, The Newsroom
3) Stockard Channing, The Good Wife
4) Martha Plimpton, The Good Wife
5) Joan Cusack, Shameless
6) Carrie Preston, The Good Wife
Alt: Laura Fraser, Breaking Bad
American Horror Story is continuing to submit in the Miniseries field.
Currently would predict:
1) Homeland
2) Breaking Bad
3) Mad Men
4) Downton Abbey
5) Game of Thrones
6) House of Cards
Alt:
Boardwalk Empire
The Newsroom
The Americans
The Good Wife
Justified
I’m really unsure on that 6th spot. House of Cards has some top pedigree, but the acclaim hasn’t been overwhelming positive, if the AV Club and Metacrtic are anything to go by. It seems unwise to underestimate Boardwalk Empire after they got in last year and pulled off that surprise win for Directing, but then again, The Newsroom is a fresher pony that HBO could push into the race (despite the mixed thoughts on several elements of the first season). Ultimately, I’m leaving them both out for now, but the appearance of neither would not shock me (heck, we could have the exact same set of nominees as last year).
I guess The Americans could pull through, but FX hasn’t had much success getting shows into that category (aside from Damages). Justified has the “hillbilly” factor (as Tom O’Neil puts it), so voters likely aren’t going to reward it, even if it did deliver one of its best seasons. Good Wife seems on the out. It had a good year, but good probably is not enough, given the steep competition.
“The Good Wife” should make the cut simply because it’s a brilliantly written show with stunning performances, not just because the networks want to see something on the list. That being said, it’s probably network televisions only chance.
Julianna Marguiles is remarkable and is definitely getting a nomination. Whether or not she’ll beat Claire Danes (last years winner) is still up in the air. The Emmy’s have a tendency to award the same actor at least two years in a row.
“Downton Abbey” is another brilliant program and I hope it lands itself in every single category.
If I had my druthers, Best Drama would look like this:
“The Good Wife”
“Homeland”
“Downton Abbey”
“American Horror Story” (unless that goes the mini-series route)
As for the last two (or three) spots, who knows and I don’t really watch or like any of the other shows getting tossed around. 🙂
Of the contenders, I only watch Breaking Bad, Mad Men, Homeland and Game Of Thrones regularly. I gave Newsroom four episodes before giving up…..it would be a legit shame if that garbage pile steals a nomination from something more worthy.
From my ‘big four,’ I think Cranston, Paul, Hamm, Moss, Slattery, Danes, Lewis and Dinklage are all locks for nominations. I would love to see these others get recognized in the supporting categories…
Mad Men….Vincent Kartheiser (unbelievable that he hasn’t been nominated yet for playing the utterly hateable Pete Campbell)
Breaking Bad…Laura Fraser (really stood out as an interesting new addition to the Breaking Bad world last season)
Game Of Thrones….Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Gwen Christie, Natalie Dormer, Diana Rigg, Charles Dance, Conleth Hill, Lena Headey (so many great choices from this show but these ones have stood out the most thus far this season)
Homeland…Mandy Patinkin (hard to believe a big name like him got snubbed last year)
I would say :
Mad Men
Game of Thrones
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
The Americans
Would live for any if the top 3 to win.
I like The Americans as much as anybody, but it won’t get nominated and neither will Justified. FX gets the shaft come Emmy-time.
How The Shield only picked up 1 Emmy over the years is a mystery.
If I could pick it would be:
Breaking Bad (remember it is the 8 episodes last summer up for this year)
Mad Men
The Americans
Justified
Southland
And I’ll throw Game of Thrones in there since that seems to be getting universal praise (although it has become the blind-spot because keeping track is complicated)
But Downton Abbey (it got really bad this season), Homeland (good lord that show had an Emmy hangover), and The Newsroom are certain to take the spots of Justified, Southland, and The Americans.
People want to bring up House of Cards but I think it’ll get acting nominations in all four categories and in directing but the scripts were lousy and I think there is a purity by the Emmys in not falling for Netflix products as of yet. At least with Arrested Development there is familiarity because that is just a brand getting regenerated.
The Good Wife could get in because of the simple fact industry people want to put one network show on the list. That said, I think Sorkin’s The Newsroom, although on HBO, fits because that show is nostalgic and mythic about the good ol’ days of the 3 network shows than anybody in the category.
As for acting:
Regina King and Shawn Hatosy need to get attention for their excellent work on Southland.
Elisabeth Moss in lead category is great.
If Dame Maggie Smith takes from not only her Downton cast-members and also Christina Hendricks again, my eyes might roll out of my head. Can we just accept her throwing out zingers isn’t acting and that she is never going to come to these awards shows so stop knocking yourself out whenever a screen-actor goes to the small-screen.
If Claire Dane wins for her 35 facial tics per frame again along with Damian ‘I act by given uneven breathing patterns’ Lewis, then it will be a boring ceremony because the Emmys locked in on both drama and comedy is just the worst. Sorry I like my CIA/undercover people to be steely and cold and not clinically insane.
Southland has been a critical darling for quite some time (not awards but reviews) and if there’s ever a show that could fill the “Friday Night Lights surprise/deserving/at long last spot” it’s this show.
Breaking Bad
Justified
Game of Thrones
Homeland
Mad Men
That’s if I was doing the voting.
It’ll prob be Breaking Bad, Mad Men, Homeland, Boardwalk Empire, Downton Abbey
The Americans is so freakin’ good!! I hope it gets in!
I won’t bother to predict the Emmys, but if I had it my way the nominees would be (6 nominees?)
1. BREAKING BAD
1. GAME OF THRONES
3. MAD MEN
4. THE WALKING DEAD (not particularly crazy about it anymore but given those other shows I has to be there)
5. SONS OF ANARCHY
6. JUSTIFIED/SPARTACUS: WAR OF THE DAMNED
Winner: I can’t fucking decide, BREAKING BAD vs GAME OF THRONES
Guilty pleasure: TEEN WOLF
-I saw the first two episodes of THE AMERICANS, and it’s really bad
-HOMELAND had its moments season 1, now I don’t see why people keep watching that
-I liked the first season of DOWNTOWN ABBEY, but Season 2 was so terrible I couldn’t get through it and left mid-season and haven’t come back.
-BOARDWALK EMPIRE is just weak nowadays
-THE NEWSROOM is boring
-I’ve never seen THE GOOD WIFE. I don’t even know what channel that’s on. Should I?
-HOUSE OF CARDS was good, but not Top 6 (nominees) for me
-When are we getting more SHERLOCK? Never since Cumberbatch is now a movie star I guess 🙁
Yes sir, definitely give The Good Wife a shot. It’s far more clever, and humorous, than you might imagine. And it’s highly addicting. It doesn’t just focus on the courtroom but also the politics of her husband.
I’m confident that Homeland, Mad Men and Breaking Bad are most definitely in. I feel Downton will miss somehow and the 4th and 5th spots will go to Boardwalk and Game of Thrones…I can’t remember if there’s a 6th nominee. Then it’ll go to Downton. The Good Wife and Justified are great but will stick with acting nods, The Newsroom I feel will be forgotten, The Americans and House of Cards will miss in the Drama Series but freshman shows that are great will get writing and directing nods for the pilots. This has been a great year for continuing shows.
FYC: Game of Thrones in every category. Even the ones it doesn’t qualify for. Make up new ones for it. GIVE THIS SHOW EVERY AWARD.