This afternoon I will drive from Los Angeles to Telluride making a few stops along the way. Telluride film festival is set to announce their lineup on Wednesday, the day before the festival begins. It is officially the start of Oscar season, a race that is then shaped and reshaped by the Venice films fest, Toronto and New York. By the time those festivals all end, Best Picture should be in sight, unless we’re looking at a unique year.
For at least the past decade, the Best Picture winner has usually been spotted much earlier than it used to be, back before the Oscar race was picked and scavenged to its bones. It used to be that a film could be released in December and still manage to win Best Picture. Now it always seems like the more ambitious projects are given over to too much speculation and the reliable stand-bys win. In reality-TV they call this “flying under the radar.”