In looking over this year’s race for Best Actor, several names are emerging from the very crowded field. You’ll notice that many of the Best Actor frontrunners will be appearing in films that will ultimately be the Best Picture frontrunners as well.
Still, within this closed world, Gravity will be a strong contender and features a female lead. Kate Winslet is also the lead in Jason Reitman’s Labor Day. Cate Blanchett still dominates the field as Jasmine in Woody Allen’s finest film since Crimes and Misdemeanors, Blue Jasmine. But for the most part, we’re looking, always, at stories that surround a male lead. The human experience, it seems, is defined by Hollywood as just that. At least, that’s what people seem to buy tickets for.
The theme of survival dominates many of the strongest contenders, or facing life’s meaning while barreling towards towards the end. In the mix are also films about identity and success. In the full spectrum human experience of the modern man it seems there are unlimited avenues to explore. Would that the same variety could be applied to females. As it is, the studio requested Sandra Bullock’s character in Gravity to be male. Cuaron refused. The rest is history.
The season started with Forest Whitaker getting much acclaim for his performance in The Butler. Whitaker must volley between playing a deferential black butler to playing a strong husband and father. It’s a mesmerizing turn, heartbreaking as the film concludes. He was joined by Michael B. Jordan who gives an exceptional performance in Fruitvale Station.
But the race tipped in Robert Redford‘s favor when All is Lost premiered at Cannes. Redford carries the entire film almost completely without dialogue. It is his most raw and accomplished performance of his many decades acting and directing in Hollywood. He was matched by Bruce Dern in Nebraska, with a touching performance of an asshole who is coming of old age. Telluride launched Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave. A fierce and unflinching portrayal of Solomon Northrup a freed slave thrust back into imprisonment. His is the kind of performance you can’t turn away from and one that haunts you long after the film ends, this because director Steve McQueen includes a scene where Ejiofor stares directly into the camera’s lens for a prolonged take (for which McQueen is famous). He is looking directly at us.
Ejiofor’s strong competition will include Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club, which just received notice out of Toronto. McConaughey famously lost a serious amount of weight for the character who is dying of AIDS. McConaughey is very much at the top of the many lists as the one to watch for the big prize not just for work in this film, but his masterful, memorable performance in Mud. He enters the race this year with three memorable performances from last year, none of which received an Oscar nomination. To date, McConaughey has never been nominated for an Oscar.
Then there’s Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips. Hanks has won twice and nominated three additional times. He also has Saving Mr. Banks coming up. But Hanks is undeniable in Captain Phillips. Oscar Issac in Inside gives one of the best performances of the year so far, complete with singing with his own voice. Isaac’s is one of those that doesn’t fit into a category except – yet another brilliant incarnation by the Coen brothers.
Performances still waiting in the wings – Leonardo DiCaprio in Wolf of Wall Street and Christian Bale in American Hustle. How they will shift the race can’t be known. With the Oscars it’s always better to go with what you know right now rather than what you don’t know. To that end, many are declaring 12 Years a Slave the frontrunner to win Best Picture. To do that, it will have to have Slumdog-like appeal. McQueen will have to be the kind of winner that makes you feel good every time he wins. The film will likely thunder through the critics awards, winning everything. Though I’ve been doing this long to declare any film the winner right now (it also does the film no favors) that is a decent declaration to make. Old timers in this game have learned their lessons in that regard. You can’t ever live down those sort of dramatic claims if they don’t pay off in the end, which this one might.
Either way, Best Actor might look like this:
Frontrunners:
Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford in All is Lost
Forest Whitaker in The Butler
Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips
Close behind:
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
Hugh Jackman, Prisoners
Benedict Cumberbatch, the Fifth Estate
Waiting to be seen:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Josh Brolin, Oldboy
Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Ben Stiller, the Secret Life of Walter Mitty
The sticking point here seems to be which of the yet to be seen performances will bump the top five so far, and whether Bruce Dern can make the cut, or whether he’ll be put in supporting to make his chances for a nomination greater.
It’ll be the veterans(Redford,Dern,Hanks) against the newcomers(Ejiofer and McConaughey).
I have just read the best actor list and it is just crazy!! It might be the strongest lineup I have ever seen.
Movies are closely matched this year and that makes the prediction even more difficult. There is not a clear Best Picture favorite right now and I think we have to just wait till the end of November to predict a reliable top five.
Of course an actor in a BP or BD nominated movie would have the edge over competition. That’s a key factor.
My guess:
Chiwetel Ejiofor
Matthew McConaughey
Robert Redford
Bruce Dern
Leonardo Dicaprio
Pretty logical list apart from DiCaprio. I prefer replacing with Oscar Isaac.
I, on the other hand, would add Leonardo DiCaprio a second time for his breathtaking performance in The Great Gatsby.
I saw an early screening of The Butler back in May and feel that Whitaker’s performance is lackluster–mainly because he doesn’t have much to do, but also because he is overshadowed by Winfrey.
I really don’t think he deserves a nomination this time around–especially when there are so many other deserving performances in the mix.
Hanks seems like a really “in the moment” prediction. Where is the passion going to come from? Remember critics can only choose one winner and they already have a full plate to choose from: Dern, McCounghey, Ejiofor, maybe someone else unseen. It just seems like a complete nonstarter.
Seriously, I can’t see why anybody would not see Redford, unless surprise, has this in the bag already. Not the nom, but the win. Just consider he has NEVER won for acting, and that he certainly is a better actor than his nomination count tells us. It’s probably the last chance to make him a competitive winner in his main cathegory, plus he’s extremely likeable, due, and also a legend of independent film,thanks to his Sundance… add to this, rave reviews praising him, and that the role is a complete tour de force already put to the test… Whatever competition he faces, there’s always a excuse for a “next year”, either already won (Hanks, Whittaker) to “plenty of time yet to win” (Eijofor, Hemsworth – how is nobody counting him on?). If you analyse the competition, it’ll be a miracle that Redford doesn’t win.
Hey Tim obviously you didn’t see the performance of brie Larson in ‘short term 12’ many critics say its the best female lead performance of the year and it will give Brie Larson an Oscar nomination
I admire the way every time you repeat it, David, you make it sound like it’s the first time you mention it…
I would have been annoyed, if it wasn’t such a worthy cause…
Redford, Ejiofor, and McConaughey are in.
But I think 4 and 5 there’s really no way to predict. Whitaker is in a very shaky position. It’s not a *big powerful* role, except if you watch closely, which people probably won’t do. “Butler” may be forgotten except for BP by the time Oscars come around. And at this point Hanks seems like a good guess (I would love it!), but Dern, DiCaprio, Carrell (if not supporting), Elba, Isaac, Phoenix, Bale, Jackman — just too many other options. Cannot underestimate any of them.
I hope we get that great female-driven film tomorrow with the premiere of August: Osage County at TIFF! Two of the best female roles written in the last decade.
Where the last few years have had very strong performances by women that I wanted to see, this year it seems to be all about the men. Every single one of the movies look compelling. Other than Blue Jasmine, which I saw Friday night, the actress driven movies haven’t been as strong as they were last year.
I guess there is still time, and August: Osage County is still out there, which is a big one. Maybe I just haven’t been keeping up with my films this year!
I think for the most part the top 4 spots are set in the best actor category:
1robert Redford
2.Matthew mcconagheuy
3.chitwel ejiofor
4.Leonardo DiCaprio
I think the fifth spot. Could go to dern, Jackman,hanks,cumberbatch or a dark horse nomination
Redford is in the top 5, period. They have never been able to resist a “stunt” from anyone with a name – Holly Hunter in the Piano, Pacino in Scent, etc. He’s in
First reactions to ‘Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom’ out. Looks like Elba and Harris are officially in the mix of possible awards contenders. Harris’ performance seems to be getting more acclaim. Supporting Actress right now looks like: Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave; Meryl Streep (August: Osage County); Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle); Naomie Harris (Mandela); & Oprah Winfrey (The Butler). All are going to need to campaign hard, though.
It’s far too early to predict Naomie Harris. If anything, the mediocre reviews for the film (among them a 2/5 from The Guardian) doesn’t bode well for the actors.
Lawrence is pure speculation at this point. And let’s wait and see if Streep really goes supporting…
It could as well be like this: Spencer, Winfrey, Diaz, June Squibb and Nyong’o (alt: Martindale)
Julian, it’ll be a cold day in hell if the Academy nominates three black actresses in one category.
Joseph
Did you see ‘short term 12? And the astonishing performance by Brie Larson? I think she has one of the best actress spots nailed down
Saw Ejiofor and McConaughey at TIFF yesterday and I prefer Ejifor. Beyond moved and can`t stop thinking about it. The film is more Haneke than Spielberg so it might not go all the way to best picture. If it did Ejiofor would win. I think Redford or McConaghey will win. My money`s on Redford now.
Best Actress is also crowded as we know with superstar names. Saw Winslet at TIFF yesterday also. I think in a crowded year she will be left out. Other performances (Blanchett, Dench) and other movies (August, Gravity) will be bigger players. Her and the film will be too subdued.
“more Haneke than Spielberg” great way to put it. So true.
That’s true john I thought for would’ve been a slam dunk I think Franco has a great chance a nom his performance was just phenomenal and I think Keith Stanfield is a dark horse? All the critics are talking about his performance
If the studio puts forward a campaign, God knows it made very good money, I would have thought that Harrison Ford in “42” would have been a no brainer nomination in Supporting.
Hes a Hollywood legend in a good role with a great performance in a well-received, money-making, Academy friendly movie. Problem is, its been gone since the Spring.
Oh shit that’s so gonna happen and all…
I thought Ford was fantastic as well. I hope this happens.
just smell the aged testosterone…. must be awards season
Let me throw out some other names who I feel deserving of nominations especially in the supporting actor category: James Franco ‘spring breakers’ his performance was breathtaking I can still hear him saying ‘spring break’ spring break forever’ Harrison ford ’42’ he was fabulous as Branch Rickey and Keith Stanfield ‘short term 12’ he stole every seen he was in
I thought that James Franco was miscast in a film I personally didn’t even care about. To me it was a mess where Harmony Korine tried to be Terrence Malick or Nicolas Winding Refn or *add any arthouse director*, and he simply is not. I know some critics liked Spring Breakers very much, but audiences seemed to hate it. Anyway, Academy members will not even watch the film (or if they put in the dvd, they’d stop watching after 15-20 minutes), so no chance for Franco – even if he deserved the nomination.
Thanks for a good read, Sasha.
“…because director Steve McQueen includes a scene where Ejiofor stares directly into the camera’s lens for a prolonged take (for which McQueen is famous). He is looking directly at us….”
It seems McQueen is pulling Ozu. Good for him, I guess.
By the way, McConaughey is seemingly pulling De Niro, Bale et al as well. Good for him, too….
—
But I am still awaiting anything new about American Hustle. (Good job to all involved for keeping things clandestine despite the teasers.)
Jonathan Demme does close-ups in a weird way, and I love it. The actors (often characters that are meaningless to the plot even, like the guy who is among the first to realise that Tom Hanks’ character has AIDS) staring almost at you, not quite directly, but close. It has to do with camera technics, as the background is unfocused. This happens in almost every Demme movie at some point (maybe in all of them), and surely increased the tension between the lead characters in The Silence of the Lambs, making Demme the right director for that film.
I guess you should not even try it if you can’t do it right. It can take the viewer out of the movie. Extreme close-ups are very dangerous.
Tero, good to see you back!
Interesting that you’ve mentioned cinematic beauty of sort in both Philadelphia and Silence of the Lambs. To me most part of the credit in terms of cinematography goes to the talented Japanese American cinematographer Tak (Taku) FUJIMOTO (his filmography also including The Sixth Sense, and Signs). (I don’t remember those scenes in Philadelphia you’ve mentioned; I guess I have to watch it again. Sorry.)
Re close-up, just to give a few names or more in random: Hilary Swank, Jessica Chastain, Kate Winslet, Charlize Theron and — don’t laugh — Lindsay Lohan. (And the list goes on.)
Well, since close-up has proven integral a part to emotional expression, those names, I trust, would likely give us quality close-up shots if given a chance to work with someone blessed in directing and cinematography. . . .
Anyway, I have yet to see 12 Years, but given what Sasha’s said, it seems to me the director has put it (close-up and the likes) into good use — my guess being, middle close-up of sort, with head and shoulders seen. I am hoping the lead actor has done justice to it because close-up is so powerful when it comes to thesps’ emotional expressions.
The supporting category too is exceptionally strong. Advance reviews for Daniel Bruhl as Niki Lauda in RUSH suggests he could be the man to beat. Add to this list Tom Hanks playing Walt Disney in SAVING MR BANKS (an Hollywood legend playing a Hollywood legend), Micheal Fassbender in 12 YEARS A SLAVE (an actor who read the telephone directory and still be compelling) and Robert DeNiro in AMERICAN HUSTLE (he got nominated for what I thought was quite an ordinary performance in SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK). We don’t know whether Steve Carrell will be Actor or Supporting Actor for FOXCATCHER,
Damn, I didn’t realise that Best Actor was this strong until you guys pointed it out. Maybe the only time when women are “happy” that this industry is so male-centric is when they are nominated for an Oscar (yes, often these same lucky women who get the best scripts). There’s no Meryl Streep in men, someone who almost automatically gets in. There’s just too much to choose from.
Foreign actors are definitely out this year, so Mads Mikkelsen and others won’t get in.
I know, winning the third Oscar is not difficult today for these selected actors and actresses, but I can’t see Tom Hanks getting it even if he was the best of the bunch. He has other stuff (lifetime achievement awards being rather young still, loads of money and fame). I think that Academy members see it as he has enough glory with those two trophies from the 90’s. Then again, he knows everybody in Hollywood.
Right now, the category is all over the place, but it’s the Oscars, in January we’ll know the winner. Maybe even before the nominations are out.
In the last decade, I think the only years when Best Actor winner was not “known” beforehand was when Sean Penn was winning. Both Bill Murray and Mickey Rourke could have upset, but Sean was still the frontrunner in both cases. Maybe it felt like that just because Sean in his personal life is a rather difficult person, but Academy clearly doesn’t care.
Would be refreshing to see this category unpredictable.
I think that’s absolutely true, Tero. The two Sean Penn wins were very, very close calls. I actually rooted for the opposition on both occasions, but there you go.
Sean Penn is hard to love, right? I admire him as an actor, though. As a person he seems deeply flawed (and as a political activist downright ridiculous, being chummy with Hugo Chavez et al…). Oh well.
But it’s very true, we need more tight races in the acting categories. I think that McConaughey will emerge as the clear frontrunner in a couple of months’ time, but for now it seems really open…Redford and Ejiofor especially seem like tough competition (without having seen the movie, I find myself rooting for Oscar Isaac, but I don’t think he’ll make it…)
The first Sean Penn win wasn’t close. You gotta be a Bill Murray-t-shirt wearer to believe otherwise
I’m that Bill Murray t-shirt wearer, then…:)
“As it is, the studio requested Sandra Bullock’s character to be male. Cuaron refused. The rest is history.”
Yet another reason to see and support this film. Bullock for BEST ACTOR! She’s got the biggest balls in Hollywood.
I guess Leo DiCarpaccio will have to wait another year. Based on trailers alone, his performance looks like same old same old, not meaty enough to compete i
…with so much greatness. The odds of seing him win a honorary Oscar are soon going to beat the odds of his winning a competitive one.
Watermelons
Dude the best actress isn’t sown up for winslet she might not even get nominated I think there are 3 spots that’s are locked up
1.brie Larson ‘short term 12’ her performance is to good for her to be left out
2cate blanchett ‘blue jasmine’
3.Sandra bullock ‘gravity’
Isn’t Carell considered supporting on Foxcatcher? I really hope he gives the performance of a lifetime and gets well deserved recognition in case of doing so (not to mention that Sup. Actor looks kinda weak this year)
I think Redford, Hanks and Ejiofor are locks. The other 2 are going to be flip-flopping around critics circles and other awards until the Oscar nominations come.
I agree with everyone who thinks Redford and Ejiofor are very likely going to be nominated. It’s hard for me to imagine a scenario where either gent gets left off the big list. McConaughey also looks like a safe bet, although I suppose we need to wait until we hear a little more about how the film is received in general. Bruce Dern also looks solid–right now I predict that he’s in as well.
Which leaves that tricky final slot. I haven’t seen Captain Phillips, but why do I feel like Tom Hanks could get passed over? Hanks is so…1990s/early 2000s, and he’s been so rewarded in this category already that he might be an easy one to dismiss when the race gets crowded. I don’t think Jackman will happen, or Clooney, and Oscar Isaac is probably worthy but just feels like a long shot. I can’t tell what Bale’s chances are like yet. I don’t see Ilba happening, and Carrell is going to have to be tremendous in order to break through, I think.
And it’s somewhat difficult to imagine that Harvey won’t get one of his ponies into this category. You know he’ll fight for it, which is probably good news for Whitaker and Jordan. I could see one of them making the cut (not both).
HIGHLY LIKELY: Robert Redford. Chiwetal Ejiofor.
GOOD BETS: Matthew M. Bruce Dern.
ON THE CUSP: Forrest Whitaker. Michael B. Jordan.
WILD CARDS/COULD SHAKE THINGS UP ONCE WE KNOW MORE: DiCaprio (but I have my doubts). Christian Bale. Maybe Carrell (but again, he’s going to have to be more than good).
MY BLIND SPOT: Tom Hanks (I’m just not feeling it).
Most of the rest, I think, have uphill battles. Then again, it is only September!
Quite simply, this looks like the most stacked year for Best Actor in recent memory. Having only seen a handful of the major contenders’ performances, Michael B. Jordan is my current frontrunner. To think that there are (or will be) five performances better than Jordan’s this year is astonishing.
Was everyone else as underwhelmed as I was by the trailer for “Long Walk to Freedom?”
Is that why nobody seems to be giving Idris Ilba a serious chance at a nod?
Something about that project just seems to be off. Ilba usually has great screen presence, yet in the clips I’ve seen, he seems strangely charisma-free.
If you’re going to play a person as iconic as Mandela, that simply won’t do.
I dont think Hanks will be nominated because the movie may be too political for the academy. And Hanks still feels overly rewarded me think
Matthew McConaughey has momentum from last year and keeps getting bigger for each film: Mud and now Dallas Buyers Club. Ejiofer in the hands of Steve McQueen sounds like a strong combo. Redford´s solo show is interesting and different. So we have a gay man with aids, a slave telling his story from a non american point of view and an old man sailing solo
Will the Academy reward two black male actors in the best actor category? Forest Whitaker, Idris Elba or Michael B. Jordan
Christian Bale can be auto nominated since they finally has open their gate for him. Like the Academy did with Johnny Depp who got nominated just for sneezing in front of the camera 3 times a raw
Actually, Mathew McConaughey’s character is a straight man with AIDS…
I think everything is too crowded this year for an actor score a double nomination. I don’t even need to watch SMB to say Tom Hanks is a virtual lock for a Best Supporting Actor nomination regardless of the quality of that film. I can’t really see him getting double-nominated… even if being… well… Tom Hanks.
I don’t see Whitaker getting in. The only safe nominee is Ejiofor. McCounaughey, Redford and Dern are very likely. Dern is not missing this nomination. And then the last spot… apparently Idris Elba delivered (what is not exactly a surprise), Joaquim Phoenix, Leo but… I think Steve Carell will earthquake this already crazy race and score the 5th spot.
If they go for the veteran, the winner won’t be Redford (a 3rd Oscar in such a competitive year… don’t see this happening) but Dern. If they don’t, Ejiofor will join Poitier, Washington, Foxx and Whitaker.
It’s merciful of the Oscar Gods to give us such a dynamic Best Actor race considering the Best Actress race is all but sewn up for the Oscar-winning star of Labor Day, Kate “The Great” Winslet (Irish, Titanic)
*Iris, not Irish, and I forgot to sign my post!
-Watermelons
If Leonard Dicaprio can make it into the top 5 he has a very good chance at winning.
Ms. Winslet’s performance was the third best one in her film in an Oscar bait type role, which is very similar to Cate Blanchett’s character in Blue Jasmine. That was the best performance of Josh Brolin’s career.
I’m pretty certain Oscar Isaac will be in my top 5 of the year. So sad he doesn’t seem to stand a chance. So much stuff has already been seen, so far I can only vouch for Michael B. Jordan and he’d make a fine nominee!
OT: I just devouredVery Recent History: An Entirely Factual Account of a Year (c. AD 2009) in a Large City, probably the hottest book of the year, super turned on all the way through. If you’re into slightly-douchey mysterious bad boys in need of someone like me (or you). Get it!
Don’t know whether this year’s slate should be considered a dream for the depth or a nighmare for overabundance. Selecting a “winner” almost seems silly at this point. Even seeing all the performances when the gates open will be a challenge.
I’d guess that Sasha’s top five seem reasonably safe at this point, but how can one dismiss Isaac, Dern or Jordan? Hopefully the various critics groups will spread the wealth evenly before Academy politics creates casualties and annoints an inevitable winner weeks before the show.
It the best time of year for Oscar watching – hopes are high and cynicism hasn’t raised its head yet.
Somehow I think that this means THE ‘BURBS, starring Hanks and Dern, is officially one of the all-time greatest films ever. But then again I already knew that. I can’t tell you how many times my Old Ma and I have said “There go the goddamn brownies.” Greatest line in film history.
I’ve only seen THE BUTLER out of these so I don’t have an informed opinion, but my guess is Dern should breakthrough since everyone loves him right? It’s a shame they never expanded the acting categories to either include 7 nominees each or a third Featured Actor category. I’ve been begging for years but alas.
Hanks, Redford, and Whitaker will get snubbed. Leonardo DiCaprio will get nominated for sure, and might even win. Christian Bale will get nominated for either Out of the Furnace or American Hustle. Ejiofer will barely makes it as a nominee I think, and Jackman hopefully makes it in along with Bruce Dern. McConaughey might even get snubbed, you never know.
I think both Redford and Ejiofor are relatively safe, I can’t see either of them missing.
How come no longer one is talking about the performance of john Gallagher Jr ‘short term 12’ he is fabulous and deserves consideration
McQueen doesn’t seem like a schmoozer. He was a bit prickly at the TIFF press conference over simple questions. The actors are a different story, and Brad Pitt behind the scenes. But you can’t just hide the director.
Yikes! This category is a nightmare to predict. Especially considering I haven’t seen any of the contenders. I’ll say…
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
3. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
4. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
5. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
—
6. Robert Redford, All Is Lost
7. Christian Bale, American Hustle
This is a really good analysis of the Best Actor race Sasha! Ejiofor, mcConaughey and Redford seem to be pretty safe bets at this point. Hanks is getting incredible reviews out of Captain Phillips (a kind of film where performances usually aren’t singled out). And it feels wrong to predict this category without having one of Weinstein’s contenders in the mix. That is: Whitaker, Jordan and Elba.
There are really only two major questions we need answering at this point:
1. Can Bruce Dern make it into a top 5. It was coolly received at Cannes but got really good word in Telluride.
2. Can Leonardo DiCaprio FINALLY get his first nomination since 2006 for Blood Diamond. He’s making a Scorsese movie which is a strong BP contender. I would have nominated Leo for Django Unchained and probably Revolutionary Road. He also gave a really good performance in Inception which was a very strong year for Best Actor so I’m not sure if I would have gotten him in.
Of course we still don’t know how Foxcatcher will do, or Her, or Walter Mitty or Saving Mr Banks (though Hanks is supporting in Banks, the movie doing good would only help his case for Best Actor).
Also, I think Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman) and Daniel Brühl (Rush) deserve mentions because their performances received rave reviews, I would be also shocked if the ridiculously talented Michael Fassbender (The Counselor) didn’t make waves and Academy-favorite George Clooney (The Monuments Men) didn’t get at least on the radar.
I fear DiCaprio won’t win let alone be nominated this year… stocking up on Kleenex already.
And to think, the amount of tissues you’ll use will probably break his heart as an environmentalist. You’d better just get a beach towel.
Oh… now I accidentally invoked The Beach. smh
I think Ejiofor is in the lead, and the momentum the film has will keep him there. Worth pointing out that with two other likely acting nominations from the film, he will benefit as neither Hanks or Redford will have that. The rather predictable “race baiting” backlash that is already beginning to bubble up in blog comments will do nothing but strengthen the films position (especially once Bill O’Reilly or Breitbart get on that topic).
Off topic, but it certainly is shaping up to be one of the most fascinating Best Director races in years.
The connection with the directors is hardly OT, Pete – I think you’ve nailed the reason for vast field of great performances.
All these guys have done much lesser work (some for years, even decades) under directors that can’t come near the scope of what we have this year.
Right material + the right director – just wind ’em up and turn ’em loose.
It will be a brutal year in Best Actor. I think Carell, Phoenix and Jackman will make the cut but that would mean only Ejiofor and McConaughey made it from your top5…and that feels pretty unrealistic. Then again a few weeks ago I thought Jordan would get the nod without a hitch…damn what will go down here in the next few months ?!
Absolutely no way Redford gets left out. Dern, maybe. But no way Redford. That film is adored and he’s the only one in it.
I think Redford is the frontrunner now – I realize there’s a lot of heat for Ejiofor, but his film premiered what, a week ago? All Is Lost premiered in May, and Redford hasn’t lost any momentum, plus the film and his backstory are going to be hard to beat.
I know it’s hard to imagine, as I said, it feels unrealistic for me, too…but then again, already recognized veterans usually have a tough time at the Oscars. Nicholson didn’t even get a nomination for The Departed and they managed to snub Robert Duvall (Get low) despite strong reviews, buzz and precursors. And to be fair, Redford’s performance is adored, the film is ‘only’ liked at the moment: its early MC-score is 74, that’s ‘The Impossible’ level a.k.a. decent enough not to hurt the acting contender but in the long run not spectacular enough to help him/her go all the way. IF the final critical consensus will be stronger, the BoxOffice at least decent by indie standards AND the Academy decides to embrace the film in general (at least another nod in a main category), THEN I will be convinced he will make the top5 and may even win…until then I am utterly baffled because frankly I have no idea how the Academy will snub 19 of these 24 actors : Chiwetel Ejiofor (Twelve Years a Slave), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), Hugh Jackman (Prisoners), Joaquin Phoenix (Her), Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips), Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Robert Redford (All Is Lost), Steve Carrell (Foxcatcher), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman), Christian Bale (American Hustle OR Out of the Furnace), George Clooney (The Monuments Men), Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis), Michael Fassbender (The Counselor), Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty), Daniel Brühl (Rush), Josh Brolin (Oldboy), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Fifth Estate), Colin Firth (The Railway Man), Josh Brolin (Oldboy), Idris Elba (Mandela : Long Walk to Freedom), Mark Wahlberg (Lone Survivor)
And those were just the name actors playing the flashy parts a.k.a. I made the horrible assumption that quieter/less dramatic performances won’t even come close to making a dent and that includes Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight), Miles Teller (The Spectacular Now), Casey Affleck (Ain’t Them Bodies Saints), Mathieu Amalric (La Vénus à la fourrure), James McAvoy (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby) and James Corden (One Chance).
At this point, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say they’re snubbing:
jackman
fiennes
clooney
isaac
fassbender (he has 12 YAS)
bruhl (is going supporting)
Brolin (word is the movie isn’t good, and you have him on your list twice)
Firth (we’ll see)
Wahlberg (don’t even know why he’s on the list)
Nor Whitaker, nor Hanks, nor Redford, yes Brude Dern, yes Ejiofor, yes Firth, yes Elba, yes Jordan, etc
Well if Redford’s role is that strong, he wins the Oscar just based on his longevity.
There needs to be about 2 more slots for actors this year instead of the usual 5.