Very happy to see that a lot of #NYFF tweeters share what I can now say is my huge enthusiasm about and admiration for Spike Jonze’s Her.
— Mark Harris (@MarkHarrisNYC) October 12, 2013
What’s the most Asmovian, romantic piece of writing from William Gibson? Spike Jonze’s Her fits that bill. #NYFF
— Matt Patches (@misterpatches) October 12, 2013
Her: a wonderfully strange, touching look at false intimacy and, possibly, the future. #NYFF
— The Film Stage (@TheFilmStage) October 12, 2013
@AwardsDaily oh man. Wrung out and brimming. #Her
— Joanna Langfield (@Joannalangfield) October 12, 2013
were
So, NEIGHBORING SOUNDS. It’s good man. So good I want to see it again, soon! Best things it’s got going for it are honesty, humility, and authenticity –so much more to discuss, but doubt many here care. A good understanding of the descriptive power of the camera, but to casual viewers the cinematography will seem cheap, so that’s another thing it’s got going against it. The committee would have to be on near DOGTOOTH mode for it be nominated. ★★★★½
Next up: THE HUNT
went to see Captain Phillips last night, and as much as everyone has talked about the last 15 minutes of the film to be Tom Hanks’ finest performance, I was still not prepared for what I witnessed. It was a scene, unlike any other scene that I’ve seen before…and if Hanks had not won 2 Oscars prior to this, he would easily be the front runner in this year’s race.
But, I am looking forward to seeing Her, it’s the movie that I’ve been anticipating the most this fall.
Joaquin Phoenix is facing M-A-S-S-I-V-E competition. Right now Chiwetel Ejiofor, Matthew McConaughey, Tom Hanks, Robert Redford seem strong bets and for the fifth slot there is also Hugh Jackman, Bruce Dern, Forest Whitaker, Michael B. Jordan, Oscar Isaac, also the unseens particularly Leonardo DiCaprio and Christian Bale (to a lesser extent George Clooney, Michael Fassbender, Josh Brolin), not to mention the dark horses Ralph Fiennes and Idris Elba.
I have a hunch about Jackman. Career-best reviews for a strong film that did (unspectacularly) well at the Box Office, the role is flashy and the kind the Actors Branch tends to eat up AND most importantly Oscar-wise, he has already hit the campaign trail and he hit it HARD…and that after two (!) lifetime achievement awards a few weeks ago.
Bottom line : Unless an unexpected unseen surprises or a dark horse emerges, I think the highly competitive Best Actor race is down to those 12 highlighted above.
I agree with you a lot of the time but on Jackman I could not disagree more. He’s an afterthought in my mind.
I will be extremely shocked if his name is called nomination morning.
Pete Hammond reports that WB is planning a serious Oscar campaign for Scarlett Johansson in supporting actress and he seems to believe she actually has a shot at making history. I agree, if critical praise continues and BO doesn’t disappoint, she could gain traction here. She not only has the ‘first ever voice performance getting an acting nod’ and the ‘oh my god, one of the most beautiful women and she impressed with a performance without a single shot of her’ narrative, she is also an actress who though turned to tentpoles and made questionable career choices in recent years, started out extremely strong (The Horse Whisperer, The Man Who Wasn’t There, Ghost World) and was widely expected to get an Oscar nod a long time ago (Lost in Translation, Girl with a Pearl Earring, Match Point).
Add the fact that she worked with the a lot of the best / most high-profile people (Robert Redford, The Coens, Sofia Coppola, Woody Allen, Brian de Palma, Christopher Nolan, Joss Whedon, Cameron Crowe ,Bill Murray, John Travolta, Helen Hunt, Penelope Cruz, Javier Bardem, Hugh Jackman, Ewan McGregor, Hilary Swank, Christian Bale, Natalie Portman, Ben Affleck, Bradley Cooper, Gwyneth Paltrow, Robert Downey Jr., Matt Damon, Anthony Hopkins, Helen Mirren, Julianne Moore) and suddenly it sounds perfectly reasonable to expect her to have the kind of wide industry support necessary to pull off something historic like this.
P.S. If Johansson emerges as a viable contender and Adams’ role won’t be considered ‘substantial enough’ for strong consideration, not to mention now facing internal competition, expect latter to be moved to supporting for ‘Hustle’. However the film will play out, considering it is a big ensemble, it will be a perfectly believable category change.
I have always thought AA in AH just doesn’t have the feel of a leading lady with that type of movie and group of actors. I think it makes more sense that she try for AH in supporting.
Not trying to be one of those “Oh, I’ve read the script” guys, but I did read the script, and even though it was probably changed (not uncommon for O. Russell films, but the changes that were reported on the web were to expand J Law’s part), it would be WAY off to see Adams in supporting. She’s going to sink her teeth in an excellent LEADING role and will most likely be nomination-worthy, pity that the field it’s too tight this year and she’ll be left off.
I don’t doubt for a second what you say but basically if she isn’t the titular character with 90% of the screentime, there IS room for category change / confusion / fraud…and apparently even if one IS the titular character (Mud) with 90% of screentime (Hailee Steinfeld), they can mess with the placement. So watch out for that Amy Adams lead campaign, because I have a strong hunch it won’t happen.
A LOT of recent supporting actress nominees (Helen Hunt, Bérénice Bejo, Hailee Steinfeld, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Cate Blanchett (Notes),Rachel Weisz, Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore (The Hours), Catherine Zeta-Jones, Kate Hudson, Jennifer Connelly etc.) were the FEMALE leads or co-leads in their respective films, but in the end campaign strategies decided their category placement and now that it seems Adams won’t be strong in supporting for ‘Her’, I would bet the studio will jump on the opportunity to avoid the crowded lead race and campaign her in the category she has been nominated in four (!) times since the 2005/2006 season. At this point it seems arguably wiser to face internal competition (Amy Adams vs. Jennifer Lawrence) than the elite sextet of Academy darlings carrying their respective films and vying for a slot in Best Actress (Blanchett, Dench, Bullock, Thompson, Streep, Winslet). Sight unseen that’s what may hurt Adams the most : she may be phenomenal but still she may not carry her film, a big ensemble with a bunch of strong, flashy co-lead roles.
That’s a pussy. A lady’s pussy
Just came from NYFF screening, as well. Unbelievable film. Wonderful acting — Johansson is wonderful, Phoenix is just unbelievable. Great look and sound to the film, as well.
Tough to say if older Academy members will be able to accept and relate to this film. Hopefully, it will get a fair shake and be considered for best film, best actor and original screenplay, at least.
But not for Adams in supporting huh?
I thought Adams was very good and has a shot, but that category looks packed.
She certainly could be added to Sasha’s existing list of Nyong’o (12 Yrs..), Winfrey (The Butler), Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis), Squibb (Nebraska), Spencer (Fruitvale) and Hawkins (Blue Jasmine).
In Scott Feinberg’s most recent list, he has Nyong’o, Winfrey, and Hawkins from films already screened. Additionally, he has Lawrence (American Hustle) and Roberts (August: Osage County).
After seeing Nebraska earlier today, I thought June Squibb was great and the crowd loved her. So, she would probably be more likely to bump someone from Feinberg’s list ahead of Mulligan or Adams’ wonderful but less showy best friend role in Her.
I think, at this point, supporting actress is WAYYYYYYYY more fluid than best actress.
Ugh cell phone typos. You get the point
Just came from the NYFF screening. Without question one of my favorite films of all time. I NEVER say that. If you like Eternal Sunshine you’ll love it. Not saying it will any Oscars but boy should it.I’ve seen 12 yeats, gravity, etc. and this is my favorite
And if I mildly liked Eternal Sunshine but think Adaptation easily Jonze’s best film?
In a just world, nominations all around. Just came from NYFF screening. sublime. no words.
This is an answer to PJ’s latest comment. Apparently I can’t reply to his reply.
Anyway, I never EVER said McConaughey was a safe bet last year. I was far removed from that very small group of people (didn’t get around to see Magic Mike). Just a few weeks ago before Dallas Buyers Club screened at TIFF, I started to think he was gonna fall by the way side. After the raves that came thereafter, I thought Dern was gonna fall by the way side. Then the raves returned for him. McConaughey is one of the safest bets in a category with two near locks (Ejiofor and Redford), one incredibly strong contender (Hanks) and then two spots which could go to:
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Bale doesn’t seem to be the focus of any of the, admittedly non-critic, reviews we’ve seen of AH so far. DiCaprio has an unfortunately bad history with the Academy. Her might be too quirky and too much of a low-key movie for AMPAS. Dern is in a Payne film. McConaughey has unqualified raves for a physically transformative role about AIDS.
Anyone from my list can get in, but Phoenix will have to fight A LOT HARDER than those other 3 names you mentioned to get in.
Also, it doesn’t matter if Leto is on tour in november. People will dee DBC for McConaughey. What matters is that he’s there for Oscar Season. But no, DBC will not get a BP nom. But neither will Her.
You do know that Her is a WB movie, right? Low key is a more apt description for this indie film about AIDs movie you keep touting. I don’t understand how someone who hasn’t hit a single precursor ever is a “safe bet” for anything. But I guess we play different kinds of poker.
Also, you may want to know that McConaughey is not showing up for a SAG Q & A screening of his own movie on Oct. 16th. Also, McConaughey has 0 (ZERO) history with the Academy. There was a great article on this very blog about test screening reactions. In the end, they don’t mean anything. If you want to focus your predicts on them, well, again we play different kinds of poker.
Jordan’s issues are same as McConaughey’s except he even has age factor against him. Jordan would need to hit SAG to get in but with Phoenix emerging that just about killed his chances entirely.
Dern is in a Payne movie is not a sufficient enough argument when reviews for film, while good, are worst of career. Sideways 94 MC, About Schmidt 85, Descendants 84 MC, Nebraska 78 MC. Paramount could also pivot him to supporting if they choose.
Anyways, Her is at 100%% on RT with a 9.2 average. These aren’t just tweets that are rapturous.
I am in no way saying HER isn’t good, it sounds like it’s quite great and I can’t wait to see it.
However, you lose credibility when part of your reasoning is saying ‘well it’s at 9.2 on RT and 100%. That is after FIVE reviews. :-\
I hope like hell it’s AVERAGING over 90 on Metacritic. RT is fluff.
Her opens 96 on MetaCritic with 2 100s out of 5. Extrapolating, it could possibly get 19 100s over 48 reviews. You lose “credibility” when you are blind to info that’s right in front of your eyes.
What the sam hell are you talking about Peeeeej. All I was saying was that you’re silly to use five RT reviews to make a point. Could it end up with an overall 9.2 after 100 reviews? YES! But using a sample of five, or even two for that matter from Metacritic, is just…stupid.
It’s gonna get a lot of perfect 100’s no question. And I hope it does. My point is that YOUR point would be much more justified when those numbers are higher. Simmer down fella.
PJ, the reviews we saw of Dallas Buyers Club weren’t of test screenings. They were of festival screenings. People have been touting DBC for about a year now (ever since that first photo came in).
Now, I’d like to make three points:
1) Her is one of my most anticipated films of the year. I want it to succeed and if Joaquin were nominated, I’d be thrilled
2) When I say Her is a low key film, I meant that it isn’t one of those BIG Oscar films which is paid a lot of attention to because it is expected to get a lot of noms.
3) What you said was that Phoenix would have to fight much less for a nomination than McConaughey, Dern or Jordan. That’s the point I was contesting. Phoenix won’t campaign for his film, he hasn’t got a very oscar baity role and he probably won’t be in a BP nominee. He can get in (by the end of the year I’ll probably be saying he should get in) but to say that his road to a nomination is easier than those other 3 guys is ridiculous. You look at them and you see there’s a pretty straight line that could be drawn between this performance and an oscar nomination. With Phoenix the road is longer and curvier and with a lot of “ifs” still unanswered.
It will be interesting to see how the Academy will react to ‘Her’ if critics embrace it, and maybe even the audience.
1. They can make Jonze settle for a script nod and that’s it.
2. They can also appreciate the performances (Phoenix, Adams) and that’s it.
3. They can do all those AND give it a filler slot in Best Picture.
4. Embrace it completely and make it a top5 player (Director nod for Jonze).
5. Consider it the safe (not as grim as ‘Twelve’, not as ‘spacey’ as Gravity) but still edgy choice, and make it the big winner.
Well..we may have educated guesses about these options once we have an idea what critics actually think…just remember how Les Misérables started its run with ‘rapturous tweets’ from first screenings, and we all know how that one ended.
Of course, there’s another option–“Her” walks away without a single nomination on Oscar morning, not even for screenplay. But a screenplay nomination does look like the movie’s strongest shot at a nod.
“if critics embrace it, and maybe even the audience.”
Les Miz ended up winning 3 Oscars, which ain’t half bad.
You’re right, it did rather well…considering critics were lukewarm at best and it failed to receive directing and writing nominations. I meant that from a film that was (though briefly) considered the BP frontrunner as late as late November, in the end it didn’t even come close.
Much as I love the guy, I highly doubt Spike Jonze is ever going to make a Best Picture winner. Not a dig, just a total clash in sensibility. I think most of AMPAS were shamed into voting for things like ADAPTATION and BEING JOHN MALKOVICH so they could still seem hip/relevant.
People have been rapturous about everything. I think we’re really going to have to wait until Christmas this time.
I had a good vibe about this one for a while now, it’s nice to see early whispers are strong…now we have to see how early reviews will go.
I have a feeling Amy Adams may have better material to work with here than in ‘American Hustle’, so I think if anything, latter could help her case in supporting than the other way around. The supporting races are all over the place, so there is plenty of room for her to emerge as a surprise frontrunner, meanwhile the lead actress race seems pretty tight as it is and ‘Hustle’ seems like an ensemble piece, one that won’t be just all about her which could hurt her because the others films (Blue Jasmine, Gravity, Philomena, Saving Mr. Banks, Labor Day, Short Term 12, Blue is the Warmest Color) ARE all about the LEADS who happen to be female and even if Adams will be the FEMALE lead in ‘Hustle’ it does look like the film will be all about the men. Then again I haven’t seen it – nobody has – so who knows.
P.S. Streep’s ‘ensemble case’ is different. First off, that film is ALL about the women and second, she has been widely considered as the best among all of them.
I thought I read somewhere that Adams’ role in “Her” is relatively small. My memory of this is vague, though, so don’t quote me on it.
This is an angry little thread isn’t it?
Good news about the positive early reaction…
I hear Gaga’s a lock for Machete Kills.
Superb piece by The Washington Post’s David Ignatius on ‘GRAVITY’ and the federal government shutdown
I am looking forward to seeing this movie. For some reason Joaquin gives me chills whenever i see the trailer…a surprise nomination???
Also, even though it seems a small supporting role, this movie may help Amy Adams to get a nod for American Hustle by just putting her in front of voters twice and showing her range….
this movie may help Amy Adams to get a nod for American Hustle by just putting her in front of voters twice and showing her range
I knowww but who gets the boot? Judi Dench please.
Bryce
Where still saying dench is a lock I don’t think so,there are at least 8-9 actresses that have a shot at a nomination if you think that all 5spots are “locked” that’s your opinion we will see Jan 16
Here we go some critics say good thinks about a movie and now people say Joaquin phoenix is a lock!!!!! Jesus!!!!
Yet you haven’t seen it so you have no idea if they are right or wrong so why be all huffy?
People need to stop jumping on the “x is a lock” bandwagon the moment a film premieres. I am really looking forward to Her, in fact it may be my most anticipated film of the fall, but this is getting ridiculous.
Phoenix’s performance looks to be fairly subtle, which isn’t what the Academy goes for at all in male performances, and the Academy has never nominated a Jonze film for BP before, despite the fact that he’s a brilliant filmmaker. They don’t generally like auteurs. A movie can be great and still be overlooked at Oscar time.
thank you for this post. it has been so annoying to come to this site this year. every week to read someones post..oh so and so has no shot because best actor.actress is locked up. umm theres still two months left so stfu seriously lol. it has been so annoying to read. but yeah in any case no one got the memo..theres still roughly two months left so just enjoy the ride for what it is..an oscar race lol.
Joaquin Phoenix is now a lock? I guess FOXCATCHER team was onto something.
As much as I adored Joaquin’s performance in The Master last year and am really looking forward to seeing “Her”, there is no way he’s a lock for a nomination. He will have to fight tooth and nail to get in, and I don’t think he personally cares so…
He has to fight a lot less then Bruce Dern, Michael B. Jordan, and Matthew McConaughey.
No he freaking doesn’t!!!
Where did you get that idea from? McConaughey is one of the safest bets of the category, Jordan is in a probable BP nominee and Dern has the veteran factor.
How in the world does Phoenix have to fight less than these guys to get in?
Oh! McConaughey is a safe bet? Like he was last year when he couldn’t hit a single precursor? And his film won’t get a BP nod or BSA since Leto will be overseas on tour with 30 Seconds to Mars the entire month of November?
Oh! Jordan is gonna be a BP film? Like Jamie Foxx was in Django? And to make maters worse Jordan like McConaughey both haven’t even been nominated before. Please tell when this starts looking like a lock to you.
Dern has a veteran factor? So do you think this is Phoenix’s first nomination or something?