David Poland, over at Movie City News, has divided up the predictions into “seen” and “unseen.” I know, shocker. What, predicting movies people have actually seen? Gravity lands on top for the second time since the Gurus began. It appears, at this stage of the Oscar race, to be down to Gravity vs. 12 Years a Slave. They couldn’t be more different. The only similarity they share is both directors are not American. The reason for the enthusiasm for Gravity, btw, is that people keep reporting on how Academy members “loved” Gravity. Gurus of Gold is here.
Thing about Gurus of Gold is that, for the most part, you can bet dollars to donuts that the winner is on either of these two charts. The odds are usually, since 2004, that the film will have been seen already. If there is a sea change in how Best Picture is won, the winner will be among those that haven’t been seen. Things like this never seem possible until they happen. There is still enough time for another movie to catch fire and win the whole thing. Here’s the trick: whatever it is it has to be better than Gravity or 12 Years a Slave. If any other movie moves ahead of those two, whether it’s seen or not, it will be because it is the general audience crowdpleaser or because the voters want to recognize a beloved, unrewarded director (like Alexander Payne or David O. Russell or even George Clooney).
Full charts after the cut.
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Would be so funny if The Book Thief betrayed all expectations and came out of nowhere to sweep up all the awards.
Just saw 12 Years A Slave today. I’d been waiting over a year to see this project come to fruition. Thankfully the film lived up to my already high expectations. It was beautiful, tragic, haunting and unflinching. I think the film is brilliant. It will definitely stay with me for a long time to come…the eerie silence of the fields; the churning of the seas; the lash of the whip; the power in a hymn. I can’t imagine that any other film this year will have touched me so profoundly. Watching Gravity with all of its visual splendor does not come close to the awe I felt upon leaving the theater today.
I also think “Inside Llewyn Davis” will end up in the mid-90’s range.
It’s “12 Years a Slave” vs. “Gravity” for Best Picture, and nothing else comes close. Both films have the narrative to win. People and groups will start to side with each film. It’s gonna be one heck of a race, but both are worthy. I suppose even a split in Director/Picture is viable.
I don’t have the stats ready to prove this assertion, but it’s becoming quite clear that this year, the number of extremely high scores on Metacritic must be at an all time high. What a great year for movies, apparently.
Yes…and more than apparently, the word ‘rapturous’–usually preceding the word “applause” is the most overused word of the last several months at least. Let’s just hope it’s for good reason.
So true, I was about to write about that.
97 – 12 Years a Slave (around 15 reviews still to come)
96 – Gravity
94 – Before Midnight
90 – Stories We Tell
89 – All is Lost (around 20 reviews still to come)
85 – Fruitvale Station
85 – Short Term 12
83 – Captain Phillips
82 – Frances Ha / The Spectacular Now
79 – Enough Said / In a World…
78 – Blue Jasmine
And since it is still only mid-October, just imagine that MOST prestige pics have yet to be released this year, so at least a few more ninetysomethings are definitely in the cards…
You know, it’s really amazing heading over to Metacritic and seeing 3 films that have such high numbers…normally you’d see one, maybe two, at a time and that’s only a few times a year. This has been a helluva year for movies.
I’ve seen half of the 26 movies listed, and by mid November I should have seen almost all of them. Watching 12YAS tonight, I will post reactions later.
I’m guessing that you’re well-connected and/or have attended a lot of the film festivals because my reaction to “I’ve seen half those films on that list…” ….otherwise, is “HOW THE HELL DID YOU PULL OFF THAT STUNT?”
I wonder what all you posters bemoaning a possible Gravity BP win are going to think once the Saving Mr. Banks train starts rolling.
do you want us to answer one by one?
for me, it depends on what I think of Saving Mr Banks when I see it.
I might be singing supercalifragilisticexpialidocious
I didn’t realize you were bemoaning a Gravity BP win.
I’m not.
I’ve only seen one movie this year so far that I think is worthy of Best Picture — but that’s just because I have to wait longer to see movies than others have already seen.
I’m not invested in anything winning yet. All I’ve seen that I care deeply about are Gravity and Captain Phillips. But that’s going to change soon. I’m not attached to anything yet.
I just don’t like the idea of anyone being mocked for having a favorite movie already.
Its going to be very, very interesting for me to see the reactions to Saving Mr. Banks and The Monuments Men when they are released. For the record, Banks is a major player, and Monuments Men is DOA. But there are going to be people out there that are going to be sooooooooo mad about those two things.
Well I, for one, am totally anticipating Saving Mr. Banks. In fact, it’s my most anticipated movie of the year. I don’t know if it will stand a chance to win Best Picture, but I honestly don’t care. It seems like a movie I would enjoy watching.
Saying ‘Gravity’ is like ‘Avatar’ since they both rely on CGI is like comparing ‘Shane’ to ‘Dr. Cyclops’ since they’re both in Technicolor.
Good to see “the book thief” getting some love
Gravity, seen. 12 Years, not yet and still waiting.
To suspend the reality: between these two films I couldn’t manage to see how Gravity could garner the Oscar BP; for now, I’ll settle for 12 Years instead regardless of the latter’s sight unseen.
(But it’s nice at least that Gravity’s director reportedly hadn’t yielded to the respective studio’s urge otherwise to change the storyline allegedly in light of commerce during production. Good for the film and us viewers, I believe.)
P.S. Thank UFO Gods Blue Jasmine still managed to hang in there at no. 10. . . . [phew]
For the record, I’ll consider myself to have the last laugh, naturally the loudest, too, if Blue Jasmine could manage to garner at least 5 noms up. [Not impossible] Rock on, Mr. Allen. And Ms. Blanchett.
OK, Sasha has switched as well. Only Anne Thompson is predicting 12 YEARS A SLAVE, and I mean out of the pundits who have a reputation for being perfectly attuned-to/informed-of AMPAS sensibilities + have knowledge of on-the-ground developments.
What do you mean, “Sasha switched it”? Not sure but I have 12 Years predicted to win.
Oh, never mind. Totally disregard this comment. When I head over to the gurus website, all the pundits’ names appear dragged one column to the right creating an illusion. I was mistakenly attributing Kris Tapley’s predictions to you. My bad.
Julianne Moore really!!!!!!!!!!!!
OT : First CARRIE reviews arrived and they are not that bad. If the final consensus stays on this competent/good/mediocre level AND the film makes money as it is expected to, I think Julianne Moore – widely considered one of the best Oscarless actresses – could easily emerge as a major threat in supporting actress for playing the iconic part of Margaret White. It also helps that the category is all over the place right now : there is a stunning newcomer (Nyong’O), a powerful veteran who recently won the Honorary Oscar (Oprah) and basically it seems to be all up for grabs after them. Long story short, there is plenty of room for an overdue player like Moore …although if American Hustle is a hit and Adams is placed in supporting for it now that her turn in ‘Her’ doesn’t seem to gain much traction, she may have the edge in the end. Thoughts ?
FYC – Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
I doubt Sony has the time, energy, or money to mount a campaign for a complete nonstarter when they already have 3 Oscar bait movies on their plate and someone else more then capable to get nommed in the category.
Right! American Hustle, Captain Phillips and The Monuments Men, not many female performances, but I guess they will concentrate their forces on JLaw and Blanchett for supp. actress, they wouldn’t take the risk of splitting votes. BTW I have these 3 films among my BP predix, how crazy would that be if they all made it in? has it ever happened for one studio?
Clooney and Payne each have two Oscars sitting on their mantles, so it’s hard for either of them to fit the “unrewarded” label. And I’m not sure Russell fits the “beloved” label given his past reputation.
In my view, the race is mostly over. 12 Years A Slave or Gravity will be your Best Picture winner of 2013, it’s just a question of which one makes it over the finish line.
If Gravity were to win Best Picture it would be like equating the Oscars with the MTV Movie Awards.
MTV Movie Award for Best Movie winners:
TERMINATOR 2: JUDGMENT DAY
MENACE II SOCIETY
SE7EN
PULP FICTION
SCREAM
THE MATIX
TLOTR: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
TLOTR: THE TWO TOWERS
THE AVENGERS
I’ll take them over Academy Ward Best Picture Winners: We all know which ones, yeah that many of them.
It’s nice that you failed to mention the 4 Twilight wins, the Tranformer win, the Pirates of the Caribbean win. And let’s not even get into the nominees of that MTV award. The BP line-ups at the Oscars nearly always have one or more of the best films of the year nominated. Last year, Amour, ZD30 and Lincoln were nominated. In 2011, The Tree of Life, Midnight in Paris and Hugo were nominated. And in 2010, the line up was quite something to behold…
EXACTLY !…Gravity will win the tech awards and nothing else
Of the movies listed above, I will admit that I have only seen 4 of them. However, I have seen Gravity and I am very surprised at the attention that it is getting over all. First of all I did not get the impression that anyone walked out of the theater going “Wow…what a great story!”. If anything, it should be compared to another big time 3D movie from several years ago, Avatar. Both movies were spectacular in terms of visual effects but it clearly is not one of the best stories of the year, which I believe was a big reason why Hurt Locker knocked off Avatar in 2009.
As an over all film, I think the best picture of the year was Blue Jasmine. Now granted, I have not had a chance to see 12 Years a Slave yet because it (as well as several others) hasn’t been released in the States and my opinion could very well change. But I definitely think that Jasmine was a better film then The Butler and just slightly better then Captain Phillips.
Both performances of Cate Blanchett and Tom Hanks are two of the best I have ever seen on screen. Not only should they get credit for portraying their characters the way they did, but both the directors and editing team should be recognized as well. Woody Allen and Paul Greengrass did an amazing job helping both of their lead actors get to where they needed to be and anyone who has ever acted in front of a screen knows that a perfomance is made and lost on the editing floor. Take into account the screenplays for both and I think (in my opinion) that Jasmine and Phillips are locks for a Best Picture Nomination
Absolutely agree on the GRAVITY – AVATAR parallel (not so much on BLUE JASMINE). Many of the same words have been used to describe GRAVITY that were also attributed to Cameron’s film – “Breakthrough”, “Game-Changer”, “Like nothing you’ve seen before” etc. etc.
A mere four years later? How many folks still consider AVATAR all that great? Is anybody really all that excited at the prospect of not one, but, two Pandora sequels?
I like GRAVITY better than AVATAR, but, both will be looked at as technical achievements down the road, but, rarely as masterpieces.
I think the difference to a lot of people is that Gravity is also an acting showcase. Sandra’s performance wasn’t masked with blue GGI like the whole cast of Avatar.
Gravity allows for spectacular achievements technically and also in the performances, without compromising one side. I think Life of Pi could have done even better if the lead was already an established name, or we got to know him better in the public eye. Gravity feels like the first full blown CGI fest where the acting is talked about just as much as the special effects.
thank you patrick for some words of dissent about ‘gravity’. someone did post recently here in a.d. about not being wowed by it/not being as wowed as the hype would have thought him to believe and he was politely made fun of.
hey, maybe some people aren’t gonna like this film or have even a 5% interest in even seeing it.how about that ??? la la la…. 🙂
blasphemer!
🙂
Karger has always had 12 Years at #1. Jeff Wells ran a piece about it.
I am glad to see August… falling. That movie just smells like bait to me.
The Book Thief already had its World Premiere, here is an interesting , Oscar-centric piece about it written by Pete Hammond :
http://www.deadline.com/2013/10/can-20ths-under-the-radar-entry-the-book-thief-steal-a-spot-in-the-oscar-race/
I would be so excited if this movie made a splash, not only because I was talking about it months ago, but because it would mean that not everything is completely predictable.
Our AD friend ‘tr’ has the honor of being the first reader at AwardsDaily to mention “Twelve Years a Slave” on New Year’s Day 2012 when I posted “Looking ahead to the movies of 2012”
tr asked:
“When is Twelve Years a Slave being released? 2012 or 2013?”
The days after Oscar night, Feb 28, 2012, ATR suggested:
“You should include Twelve Years a Slave, McQueen’s period pic about slavery with Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender, and Brad Pitt.”
(that was when I posted “The Most Anticipated Movies of 2012”)
steve50 set us straight:
“Unfortunately, we have to wait until 2013. I’m sure it will be a stunner that will all but erase the GWTW mentality that’s gripped us since ’39.”
By mid-2012, rufussondheim, you had taught us all to stop spelling out Twelve. Your comments along with with those of steve50 have been the most fervently consistently supportive every month since we first began posting casting news last summer, 2012.
I like what Mattoc said in August, 2012:
Good research, Ryan.
It may go back even further – it was around the Shame release when I first heard about McQueen/Fassbender’s next venture.
For many of us, this has been the lo-o-n-ngest Xmas Eve … ever.
Mattoc – possible the best post to have appeared on this site.
Could be. All I can do is search for the title of the movie in the comment archives.
So you’re right — if anybody referred to 12 Years obliquely in 2011 then it would be hard to locate without the keyword Slave (145,000 comments archived)
I hope Ryan never finds when I admitted to masturbating to Tim Tebow interview footage.
that Tebow comment plays on a continual loop for the lost souls in spam purgatory.
I believe you …your avatar looks like you were caught red handed ”flagrante delicto ” choking the chicken
And Moses did say to Pharaoh ” PHARAOH !…Let that chicken go ” !
bryce’s comment about tebow has got to be a contender for best post on this site. encore !!!!! 😉
I was talking about the Book Thief there.
But yeah, it was all Steve50 who got me to watch Hunger and Shame and then read the book. So all my effusiveness is due to him. But he’s not like me so he would never gush about being early on the 12 years bandwagon.
Heck, I still recall being the only person to think The Departed had a shot 6 months before its release. It was then that I realized that nearly everyone in this business is guilty of groupthink and are the biggest bandwagon jumpers I know. Very few people actually think for themselves.
Sasha is the only one I know of who does. And that’s why this is the only movie site I bother reading.
yep, I traced my confusion already. I’d lost the plot earlier today because I was trying to follow along on wordpress mobile. It doesn’t show nested replies.
But it’s good to hear about how little my presence has to do with you guys being here!
🙂
JUst be aware that at any minute I am going to start championing Into the Woods for Next year and for Anna Kendrick to win something (either lead or supporting)
Somebody (?) tweeted the other day about McQueen wanting to do a musical and the Coens wanted an opera.
If it wasn’t a joke, maybe rufus has his director for Assassins.
Joel Coen:
“You always hesitate to mention these things when you are in the middle of them, because sometimes they just go in a drawer and never surface again and then people ask ‘what ever happened to that thing’ for the next 20 years…We are writing something right now where the main character is an opera singer.”
McQueen:
So you’ve covered a hunger strike, sex addiction and an epic about slavery. Do you ever want to do something lighter, or does that not interest you at all?
McQueen: I’ll do a musical next. I want to do a musical, that’s what I want to do.
Any ideas?
McQueen: I’m thinking about it, but I want to do a musical with Michael.
Can he sing?
McQueen: Oh yeah, he can sing really good! Oh my God, what was that guy’s name? [He starts singing, “What a Fool Believes,” which is awesome.] Michael McDonald? Oh God, he does a fantastic Michael McDonald.
Holeee …..!
See, Ryan – you’re presence here is appreciated. Thanks for confirming!
I could be wrong but I think Dave Karger just switched.
Also, isn’t it nice to know they’ve actually SEEN the films? Otherwise, it’s just, well, guessing.
Hey now…Karger isn’t predicting GRAVITY!! Isn’t he like infallible right? OK we can now stop trashing Cuaron’s film. It was never gonna win so stop tripping.