This year’s Oscar race is not different from most in the last twenty years. Best Picture is driven by two major factors: Director and Actor. The strong leading man has driven the Best Picture winner for the past seven years. You have to go back to Million Dollar Baby, or I suppose, Crash to find a year when the Best Picture winner wasn’t anchored by a strong leading male, whether or not that actor was nominated or not. The male narrative is key these days, with the giant consensus votes ruling the Best Picture race.
So much has changed since Oscar pushed its date back one month. You would have had to be blogging the Oscars 24/7 for 15 years to notice this. You would have to be able to remember what it was like before. Back when Million Dollar Baby won, the date shift was just starting to take effect. Since then, two things have happened beyond a shadow of a doubt — films released late in the year do not win and all of the films that do win are dominated by the male narrative.
This could just be coincidence, of course. Maybe the only movies worth rewarding are driven by a strong male lead. And maybe we will see a late-breaking film win this year, thus breaking the pattern that has been set since Million Dollar Baby. Either way, this is the way the Oscars have been going for a while now.
Argo – Ben Affleck’s CIA agent makes good by bringing hostages home.
The Artist – Jean DuJardin’s silent film star fails at talkies then finds success.
The King’s Speech – Colin Firth overcomes his stutter, learns how to speak in public, wins the war.
The Hurt Locker – Jeremy Renner dives into the Iraq war, comes out, goes back in.
Slumdog Millionaire – Dev Patel is a poor Indian who becomes rich and gets the girl of his dreams.
No Country for Old Men – Josh Brolin finds a satchel. Anton Chigurh kills him anyway.
Tommy Lee Jones is too old and too slow to protect him.
The Departed – Leonardo DiCaprio is a double agent for a crooked police force – gets caught between doing what’s right and knowing who’s wrong, gets shot.
Crash – an ensemble cast that I don’t remember well enough to say what it was about.
Million Dollar Baby – Clint Eastwood finds and trains a young female boxer who dies.
Return of the King – because Frodo.
Chicago – TWO FEMALES FINALLY
It isn’t that Best Picture hasn’t always been mostly dominated by male narratives – it’s that the strong female-driven movies started to fail to catch fire at the box-office around the mid-90s and once that happened, there has never been much of an economic incentive to get those films made.
With Sandra Bullock now killing it at the box office, with Melissa McCarthy, Kristen Stewart, Jennifer Lawrence all pulling in high numbers, it’s possible things might be changing overall in Hollywood. But that doesn’t mean anything will change with the Oscar race. Let’s look at the potential nominees this year:
12 Years a Slave – a brilliant ensemble here, with plenty of richly drawn female supporting roles. But it is the narrative of Solomon Northup, who spends 12 years having to pretend to be a slave.
Nebraska – despite many vibrant supporting players, like June Squibb in particular, Nebraska is the story of a man’s life seen in the rearview mirror. Did his dreams ever come true? What is the sum of a life? His son helps him figure out who he is and what he’s always wanted.
Captain Phillips – Tom Hanks battles the pirates amid an all male cast. A brilliantly told story with two strong forces in Hanks and the breakout star Barkhad Abdi.
The Butler – Forest Whitaker and David Oyelowo gives two of the year’s best performances as representatives of different eras during the Civil Rights movement.
Inside Llewyn Davis – The amazing Oscar Isaac as Llewyn Davis in one of the best films of the year.
All is Lost – Robert Redford’s unforgettable survival story.
Her – Joaquin Phoenix looking for his perfect love in a machine.
Dallas Buyers Club – Matthew McConaughey goes underground to help AIDS patients survive a little longer.
Fruitvale Station – Michael B. Jordan plays the young Oscar Grant on the last day of his precious life.
Lone Survivor – Mark Wahlberg is the last surviving member of a failed assassination mission.
And the upcoming American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street.
The exceptions? The big one is Gravity. Alfonso Cuaron fought to keep Sandra Bullock the lead, despite one studio’s insistence that she be changed to a he. Bullock is pushing 50, compared to Scarlett Johansson or Natalie Portman, the other actresses being considered for the part. It has held onto the number one spot at the box office for three straight weeks. Sure, George Clooney helps to sell it. His mere presence allows the films to put the popular star on posters, which doesn’t put the burden entirely on Bullock to open but still, in a desert you appreciate every drop of water you can get.
The other exceptions would be Before Midnight, which is solidly about Julie Delpy’s character as much as it is about Ethan Hawke’s. And Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, which turns entirely on Cate Blanchett’s inner world. There’s Blue is the Warmest Colour – which seems to be the only kind of film about women the status quo can get behind. Saving Mr. Banks and Philomena round out the rest.
So why does it seem like now, since the date for the Oscar ceremony was pushed back, that male narrative succeed and movies have to have been seen early to win?
What has changed since 2003? More blogs, more critics, more voices, Twitter, Facebook. It is easier now than it’s ever been for a backlash to form, thus selecting a film out, even a deserving film. Despite what we’d all like to believe, we live in a male-centric culture – it isn’t even that men themselves are responsible for this – women are too. Women sometimes hate women. Women often drag other women down. Note the way the Sandra Bullock character has been dismantled by women. Note the way films like Argo (which has paper dolls for female characters) and The King’s Speech are thoroughly embraced by women? The truth about us is that we are more comfortable with films that fortify the base of our society — the one that tells us that men are more important than we are. We have to admit this about ourselves.
Women and other minorities comes with baggage instantly. Jessica Chastain was not emotional enough in Zero Dark Thirty. Sandra Bullock was too emotional in Gravity. Such scrutiny is never placed on the male leads. Would anyone have ever said “Ben Affleck wasn’t emotional enough in Argo” or “Jean DuJardin was too emotional in The Artist”?
What happens when the Best Picture consensus starts to form is that it backs up Hollywood’s cynical ideas about what makes a movie work: films that turn on the leading male figure. The thousands of people who vote every year determine this, even if the critics awards run counter to it. By the time you get to the Oscar race, the boat is moving too fast to turn it around.
The Producers Guild – 4,700
The Directors Guild – 14,500
The Screen Actors Guild – 100,000
The Academy 6,000
Now that the Oscars are decided a whole month earlier, a consensus has to build before the year even comes to a close. With those kinds of numbers, you are looking starkly at what the majority rules. The Oscar race hasn’t always been built this way. It’s a relatively new phenom, helped along by social networking. The Producers Guild was never very influential until now. Ditto the Screen Actors Guild. Only the Directors Guild has had influence.
I write this only to say that you can pretty much set your watch by these two factors now – Best Picture will be a film that’s been seen earlier than December, and it will feature a strong central male lead. I will be curious to see if either of these rules are shattered this year.