I think it’s kind of funny that every year we go through the whole Best Picture, Best Director is going to split thing. Remember when it was going to be Kathryn Bigelow for Director and Avatar for Best Picture? The thing about splits to know is that they happen so rarely and when they do it is almost impossible to see them coming. No one could have predicted Saving Private Ryan to win Director but not Picture, for instance. Crash? Chariots of Fire? These were all unpredictable splits. How about Steven Soderbergh beating Ridley Scott and Ang Lee in 2000? Someone might have been able to spit in the wind, have a hunch and then claim victory by having that made that call – but really, that would have been a blind guess. You would not have seen a consensus form like you’re seeing now at Gurus of Gold:
A similar dynamic is playing out at Gold Derby.
The ballots are counted for Best Picture as preferential ballots – a process I feel like I have to relearn every year. But that process usually means a generally favored films will win over a deeply passionate choice that is, in any way, divisive. Best Director is counted as a weighted ballot, like the rest of the categories at the Oscars. Passion can sometimes win out there. Remember, we have more than five nominees for Best Picture. You really can’t factor in split years when there were five Best Picture contenders and weighted ballots. You have to factor in both things – passion (Best Director) and generally favored all around (Best Picture).
It seems like we go through this every year lately and yet the pundits continue to be confident that not only will a split occur but one that could be seen from a mile away. Either that, or they think Best Picture will be one or the other and they’re hedging their bets. I believe that they will not split Best Picture and Best Director but that if one wins one, it will handily win the other. In other words, if there is enough passionate support for Alfonso Cuaron in Best Director, Gravity is destined to win Best Picture. Why would 12 Years a Slave win Picture but not director?
The Producers Guild will likely be the decider, just as it has been since 2009, when Oscar changed up to the preferential ballot. The PGA’s preferential ballot chose The Hurt Locker, so did the DGA, so did Oscar. The PGA’s preferential ballot chose The King’s Speech, so did DGA, so did Oscar. The PGA’s preferential ballot chose The Artist, so did DGA and Oscar – same went for Argo, even without a Ben Affleck nomination. Why would 2013 be any different?
If the PGA goes for Gravity and the DGA goes for McQueen, that could indicate that a split might be underfoot – or the opposite could happen – the PGA goes for 12 Years a Slave and the DGA goes for Cuaron you might see the kind of split playing out that the gurus are predicting. MORE LIKELY HOWEVER is that if one film is strong enough to beat the other with the producers, it will be strong enough to beat the other with the directors.
The only way to look at Oscar history is to pick the years where there were more than five Best Picture nominees against five director nominees:
1943
- SONG OF BERNADETTE – 12 nominations – wins 4: Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography and Score, nominated for editing
- FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS – 9 nominations, including editing, but no director, no screenplay, 1 win for supporting.
- CASABLANCA-8 nominations. 3 wins for Picture, Director, Screenplay, 2 acting nominations, editing
- MADAME CURIE – 7 nominations, including acting, but no director, writer or editing.
- THE MORE THE MERRIER – 6 nominations, including writing, acting and directing, won Supporting Actor, no editing.
- THE HUMAN COMEDY – 5 nominations, 1 win (for writing, William Saroyan), including director, no editing
- HEAVEN CAN WAIT – 3 nominations, including director, no editing, no screenplay
- WATCH ON THE RHINE – 4 nominations, including writing (Dashiell Hammett) and acting, 1 win, acting. NY Film critics pick for Best Pic.
- IN WHICH WE SERVE – 2 nominations (one honorary win for Noel Coward), screenplay nom, no editing.
- THE OX BOW INCIDENT – 1 nomination
1942
- MRS. MINIVER – nominated for 12 Oscars – 6 wins for Picture, Director (Wyler), Screenplay, Actress & Supporting Actress, & Cinematography
- THE PRIDE OF THE YANKEES – 11 nominations – 1 solitary Oscar win for Best Editing
- YANKEE DOODLE DANDY – 8 nominations, including Director (Curtiz) – 3 wins, including Best Actor (Cagney)
- RANDOM HARVEST – 7 Oscar nominations, including Best Director – 0 wins
- THE TALK OF THE TOWN – 7 nominations, 0 wins
- THE MAGNIFICENT AMBERSONS – 4 nominations, including Cinematography & Supporting Actress (Agnes Morehead)
- WAKE ISLAND – 4 nominations, including Director
- THE PIED PIPER – nominated for 3 Oscars, including Best Actor
- THE 49th PARALLEL – 3 nominations – won Best Writing, Original Story (but lost Best Writing, Screenplay).
- KINGS ROW – 3 nominations, including Best Director
1941 (a.k.a. “the year that will live in infamy”)
- SERGEANT YORK – 11 nominations – 2 wins, Editing & Actor (Cooper)
- HOW GREEN WAS MY VALLEY – 10 nominations – 5 wins, for Best Picture, Director (Ford), Cinematography, Art Direction, Best Supp Actor (Crisp)
- CITIZEN KANE – 10 nominations – 1 win for Screenplay (Welles & Mankiewicz) – NY Film critics pick for Best Picture
- THE LITTLE FOXES – 9 nominations – 0 wins
- HERE COMES MR. JORDAN – 7 nominations – 2 wins, for Best Story, Best Screenplay
- HOLD BACK THE DAWN – 6 nominations
- BLOSSOMS IN THE DUST – 4 nominations – 1 win
- THE MALTESE FALCON – 3 nominations
- ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN – and living up to its title: 1 nomination
- SUSPICION– 3 nominations – 1 win, Actress (Joan Fontaine)
1940 -SPLIT
- REBECCA – 11 nominations, including Hitchcock’s 1st Oscar nom, Editing & Screenplay – only 2 wins, for Best Picture and Cinematography
- THE GRAPES OF WRATH – 7 nominations, including Screenplay & Editing – 2 wins, including Best Director (Ford)
- THE LETTER – 7 nominations – 0 wins
- FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT – 6 nominations -0 wins
- THE LONG VOYAGE HOME – 6 nominations – 0 wins
- OUR TOWN – 6 nominations – 0 wins
- THE PHILADELPHIA STORY – 6 nominations – 2 wins, including Screenplay
- THE GREAT DICTATOR – 5 nominations – 0 wins
- KITTY FOYLE – 5 nominatins – 1 win, Actress (Ginger Rogers)
- ALL THIS, AND HEAVEN TOO – 3 nominations – 0 wins
* (Best Editing in 1940 went to North West Mounted Police — so AMPAS was all over the map)
1939
- GONE WITH THE WIND – 13 nominations – 8 wins, for Best Director, Screenplay, Editing, Actress, Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography
- MR. SMITH GOES TO WASHINGTON – 11 noms – 1 win, Original Story
- WUTHERING HEIGHTS – 8 noms – 1 win, for b&w Cinematography (Toland)
- GOODBYE, MR. CHIPS – 7 noms – 1 win, Best Actor (Donat)
- STAGECOACH – 7 noms – 2 wins, incl. Supporting Actor
- THE WIZARD OF OZ – 6 noms – for Score & Song
- LOVE AFFAIR – 6 noms – 0 wins
- NINOTCHKA – 4 noms – 0 wins
- OF MICE AND MEN – 4 noms – 0 wins
- DARK VICTORY – 3 noms – 0 wins
1938
- YOU CAN’T TAKE IT WITH YOU – 7 nominations – 2 wins, including Best Director (Capra)
- ALEXANDER’S RAGTIME BAND – 6 noms – 1 win
- BOYS TOWN – 5 noms – 2 wins, Best Supp Actor & Screenplay
- JEZEBEL – 5 noms – 2 wins, incl. Best Actress (Davis)
- FOUR DAUGHTERS – 5 noms – 0 wins
- PYGMALION 4 noms – 1 win, Screenplay
- THE ADVENTURES OF ROBIN HOOD – 4 nominations – 3 wins, incl. Best Editing
- THE CITADEL – 4 noms
- TEST PILOT – 3 noms – 0 wins
- GRAND ILLUSION – 1 nomination
1937 — SPLIT
- THE LIFE OF EMILE ZOLA – 10 nominations, including Director & Actor – 3 wins, including Best Screenplay
- LOST HORIZON – 7 noms – 2 wins, incl. Best Editing
- A STAR IS BORN – 8 noms – 2 wins
- IN OLD CHICAGO – 6 noms – 2 wins
- THE GOOD EARTH – 5 noms – 2 wins, Actress (Rainer) & Cinematography (Freund)
- ONE HUNDRED MEN AND A GIRL – 5 noms – 1 win
- THE AWFUL TRUTH – 5 nominations, incl Screenplay & Editing – 1 win, Best Director (McCarey)
- CAPTAINS COURAGEOUS – 4 noms – 1 win, Actor (Tracy)
- DEAD END – 4 noms – 0 wins
- STAGE DOOR – 4 noms
1936 – SPLIT
- THE GREAT ZIEGFELD – 7 nominations – 3 wins, incl. “Best Dance Direction” (hmm)
ANTHONY ADVERSE – 7 noms – 4 wins, incl. Best Editing - DODSWORTH – 7 noms – 1 win
- SAN FRANCISCO – 6 noms – 1 win
- MR. DEEDS GOES TO TOWN – 5 noms, incl. Screenplay – 1 win, Best Director (Capra)
- ROMEO AND JULIET – 4 noms – 0 wins
- THE STORY OF LOUIS PASTEUR – 4 noms – 3 wins, incl. Best Story & Best Screenplay
- THREE SMART GIRLS – 3 noms – 0 wins
- A TALE OF TWO CITIES – 2 wins – 0 wins
- LIBELED LADY – 1 nom – 0 wins
1935 – SPLIT
- MUTINY ON THE BOUNTY – 8 nominations, – 1 win, Best Picture
- NAUGHTY MARIETTA – 8 noms – 2 wins
- THE LIVES OF A BENGAL LANCER – 8 noms – 2 wins
- THE INFORMER – 6 noms, incl Editing – 4 wins, including Director (Ford) & Screenplay
- CAPTAIN BLOOD – 5 noms – 0 wins
- LES MIS√âRABLES – 4 noms – 0 wins
- A MIDSUMMER NIGHT’S DREAM – 4 noms – 2 wins, incl. Editing
- TOP HAT – 4 noms – 0 wins
- BROADWAY MELODY OF 1936 – 3 noms – 1 win
- DAVID COPPERFIELD – 3 noms – 0 wins
- ALICE ADAMS – 2 noms – 0 wins
- RUGGLES OF RED GAP – 1 nom – o wins
1934
- ONE NIGHT OF LOVE – 6 noms – 2 wins
- IT HAPPENED ONE NIGHT – nominated for 5 Oscars – won all 5, incl Director (Capra)
- CLEOPATRA – 5 noms – 1 win, Cinematography
- THE GAY DIVORC√âE – 5 noms – 1 win
- THE THIN MAN – 4 noms – 0 wins
- VIVA VILLA! – 4 noms – 1 win
- IMITATION OF LIFE – 3 noms – 0 wins
- FLIRTATION WALK – 2 noms – 0 wins
- THE WHITE PARADE – 2 noms – 0 wins
- THE BARRETTS OF WIMPOLE STREET – 2 noms – 0 wins
- HERE COMES THE NAVY – 1 nom – 0 wins
- THE HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILD – 1 nom
*(the 1934 Oscar for Best Editing went to Eskimo)
1932-33
- CAVALCADE – 4 nominations – 3 wins, incl. Best Director
- A FAREWELL TO ARMS – 2 noms – 0 wins
- 42ND STREET – 4 noms – 0 wins
- I AM A FUGITIVE FROM A CHAIN GANG – 3 noms – 0 wins
- LADY FOR A DAY – 4 noms – 0 wins
- LITTLE WOMEN – 3 noms – 1 win
- THE PRIVATE LIFE OF HENRY VIII – 2 noms – 1 win, Actor (Laughton)
- SHE DONE HIM WRONG – 1 nom – 0 wins
- SMILIN’ THROUGH – 1 nom – 0 wins
- STATE FAIR – 1 nom – 0 wins
Generally speaking, a split seems to occur when voters feel obligated to reward a film they really didn’t like that much, or not as much – and they give their “love” vote to what people consider a lesser, but more likable movie overall. 12 Years a Slave would probably be the film voters felt obliged to vote for where Gravity would be the film that is more likable overall, wouldn’t you say? So those predicting a split vote – almost all of the Gurus of Gold and Gold Derby people – seem to have it pegged in a backwards fashion. The bottom line is this: if voters in the DGA love Cuaron’s film enough to give him Best Director, with 14,500 voters choosing him over Steve McQueen or David O. Russell (should they be nominated), you can bet Gravity will have more than enough momentum to go ahead and then win Best Picture.
My best guess on a split vote, however, would easily give McQueen the edge in director and Gravity in Best Picture. But from what I know of the way these votes have gone down lately there won’t be a split. And if there is one it will be something you don’t see yet – like what Pete Hammond is predicting, American Hustle to win Best Picture as the popular vote and either McQueen or Cuaron will win Best Director.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/video-sandra-bullock-george-clooney-667545
^^ Gravity featurette. I just plain forgot what great cinematography this was.
My prediction is that “12 Years A Slave” wins Best Picture and McQueen wins Best Director. I agree with Sasha in saying that there doesn’t seem to be any particular reason why a split would happen, so when in Rome, go with Oscar history and predict the usual BP/BD connection.
Now, this doesn’t mean the other illustrious directors are going to be left out in the cold. Don’t forget that Cuaron co-edited his film, so I can see some voters awarding McQueen and also tossing Cuaron a bone by giving he and Mark Sanger the Editing Oscar. There’s also the forthcoming battle royale in Best Original Screenplay……we could see Russell, Jonze or the Coens pick up an Oscar in that category rather than as Best Director.
Funny, if 2012 was kind of a rehash year of past Oscar winner, 2013 could see a lot of new faces get their first Academy Awards. We have Ejiofor (or maybe DiCaprio), Nyong’o, Leto, McQueen, Cuaron (in editing), Russell or Jonze (in original screenplay), Lubezki (good lord, is this guy overdue)…..heck, even Brad Pitt could get himself on the Oscar board for co-producing 12 Years A Slave.
The Peter Jackson – Cuaron comparison isn’t perfect. One directed a trilogy and one didn’t. The time spent was comparable. (Did Cuaron waste time needlessly? I don’t know how long it should take to make something like “Gravity.”) I’m just saying that time spent on a project *could* be *a* factor.
It seems to me that the Academy likes it’s winning movies to be a bit upmarket , a bit historical , polished ,art-housish Looking back over the last few years at the best picture winners there seems to me to be an arc of continuity that starts with Slumdog and then sweeps through The Artist , then The Kings Speech , then Argo and is now pointing directly at 12 YAS …the folks who voted for a thoughtful , somewhat cultured movie like the Kings Speech are not going to be much impressed with the ”sound and fury ” of Gravity
I also concur with the very early comment about Soderburgh winning over GLADIATOR. That, too, was a case of a director who could not be denied, and whom everyone was predicting to win, even IF they weren’t following it up with a TRAFFIC pic win.
HER like the SOCIAL NETWORK primarily appeals to the younger crowd , but those 60-ish white male voters who make the majority at the Academy are not going to be much impressed with it When some folks try and predict the Oscars they tend to overlook the crucial age group of the voters ….folks who are over 60 look at the world in a completely different way to those who are under 30 or even under 40 and that to me explains the appeal of AMOUR and NEBRASKA ; they can easily identify with the old man in Amour and ”Woody ” in Nebraska as he goes on his Don Quixote journey into the heartland and into the shipwreck of old age …those folks are not going to be too impressed with the noise and special effects of Gravity or the ”glamour of Wolf ” they are looking for something more profound and meaningful than that
Just wanted to quickly comment: (a) I do think the possibility of a split this year is high, in whatever form it takes (I’m thinking SLAVE for Pic, but GRAVITY for director) and (b) in 1981, when CHARIOTS OF FIRE won, everyone was at least predicting Beatty as Best Director; on pic, there was no clear consensus (it was difficult to imagine REDS as a best pic winner at that point in history), but everyone KNEW Beatty was going to walk away with an Academy Award; all of this makes that race somewhat unique.
American Hustle and WOLF are similar insomuch that they both try and glamorise THEFT…the ABSCAM SCANDAL was no laughing matter and the creeps involved in it belonged in prison and in a similar way those predatory wolves of Wall Street are no people to be admired , but are scoundrals who make a living ripping people off
Both of these movies lack the pure moral message of 12 YAS and that’s just one of the reasons why I think it will win B P
The problem with American Hustle is that it’s too clever for it’s own good ; it’s plot is over complex and converluted that many folks will need to see twice to fully understand it ….any con/ caper that needs to be seen twice has failed as it leaves the audience frustrated and confused ; a movie should unfold and reveal it’self and leave the audience satisfied and fulfilled like a fine wine or three course meal
True, but given the legacy Peter Jackson legacy he created with three BP-nominated movies, he was kind of a given, thereby kinda disqualifying the comparison. Given that, Cameron is as good a parallel example.
I am a big fan of the work of both Cauron and especially McQueen, so if they can monopolise BP & BD, I will be very happy. I also love Greengrass, Scorsese & the Coens, so this is evolving into one of my favourite BD fields ever (although I never rated Russell all that highly). Last year was rather awesome for BD as well.
Personally, whilst Argo wasn’t a world beater, it was easily my favourite winner since No Country. No Country is also the best winner since Silence of the Lambs (both unconventional), although I am a fan of Titanic as well.
Her continues to be the intriguing one for me. It is clearly going for BP and not worrying too much about BD, whilst American Hustle is slightly more Director-focused. Still, it’s almost January, and barely anyone has even seen Her yet, so it would be highly unusual. But if there is a 3rd party in this race, a late dark horse, for me Her is the one. It’s chances are remote, but for me it is the only film capable of genuinely breaking up the 12YAS-Gravity dominance. An AH win is just too disturbing.
^But, Cameron had already won for “Titanic” and by 2009, many of his peers had come to dislike him.
^By that rationale, your better parallel would not be Peter Jackson in 2003, who never had much competition, but actually James Cameron in 2009. And by your rationale, you would have predicted Cameron and would have been wrong.
I see Peter Jackson as a parallel to Cuaron. (The LOTR trilogy is not my cup of tea, but anywho.) Jackson spent years on the project, much like Cuaron has with “Gravity.” There wasn’t a split in 2003, but in 2013, I can imagine a number of voters thinking that “12YAS” is a better film than “Gravity,” so we’ll pick “12YAS” for BP, but “Gravity” was such an effort that we’ll pick Cuaron for BD.
I just saw American Hustle, and this better win the SAG, at least. I can see it losing Best Picture to 12YAS, but it’s an easy, breezy, beautiful cover girl of a movie. Not just Scorsese-lite but elements of The Sting and Boogie Nights as well. So much dialogue. I think screenplay is a lock unless WOWS is as good and starts gaining.
And I agree Bradley Cooper is totally getting a nomination. The SAG Supporting Actor lineup is the lineup most were predicting a few months ago, but they’ll surely drop one of the weaker performances — Abdi (probably not), Bruhl (wouldn’t surprise me, even when he gets BAFTA and has all the precursors), even Gandolfini (who knows?). It’s a shame about JLaw; this is the movie she should be winning for, especially given the competition, as weak as Best Lead Actress was last year.
Christian Bale: never count him out. Brilliant as always, though I can see why in a competitive year he would be left out. But he’s brilliant as always, and the transformation is incredible.
Finally, Amy Adams is getting ripped off. I’m sure the 5 Lead Actress frontrunners are all strong, and they look incredible on paper. But having seen Gravity (and being a huge Ellen Ripley fan), I’m not sure how I feel about Bullock sailing through a nomination while Adams gets barely Golden Globe and BFCA Comedy nominations. She DOES have an arc, though just not the most drastic or full-circle on. Yes, she’s eye candy to an extent, and a reactionary, supportive character. That’s why she’s being misplaced in Lead. You think she’s co-lead until Bradly Cooper shows up, and by the end her total screentime and number of lines don’t seem much more than his. And he’s being campaigned in Supporting, fairly enough. Plus, there’s enough to this performance: Adams has a couple great scenes in the first half and middle which are truly more a showcase of the writing than her acting, but again convey a three-dimensional, strong-willed character. I don’t know who would deserve to be kicked out of Supporting for Adams’s sake, but it would be nice for it to happen. Julia Roberts may also be category fraud, but seems just as worthy of a nomination. Oprah was the best part of The Butler and in a baitier type of role than Adams’s, but Adams has much more to do, much better material to work with. I haven’t seen June Squibb yet, but I’m sure she’s a scene-stealer for what she has to work with. And I’m not over the moon about Lupita Nyong’o because her part was kind of small and cliched, but she has to be nominated, at least.
Yeah McQueen strikes me as quite the opposite of Mahler. But surely not Chopin either. McQueen’s uncomfortable dwellings on silence and openness would demand a parallel to Modernists, from Satie to the mid-late 20th c. minimalists.
I still haven’t seen American Hustle. But ever since I saw Flirting with Disaster, I knew I associated with this director and he would be my guy. (Along with PTA, who was more promising at the time, and shortly thereafter Jonze, who is even more so my guy, my favorite contemporary visual visionary.) My next favorite has been ubdoubtedly Silver Linings. What a bunch of folks (on this forum) understate about Russell is the extent to which his freshness inspires young filmmakers, and not in some stylistic Tarantino sense, but in the sense of provoking interest in spontaneity and positivity. I thoroughly support that.
Despite Argo winning, I thought last year was a huge success for the Oscars nomination-wise. Lincoln, Amour, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook, Django Unchained, and Life of Pi were all essentially my favorites of the year. (My other pet favorite that didn’t get discussed much was the brilliant Seven Psychopaths. For those who are literarily inclined, McDonagh is a treasure trove of brilliance, and not just in a comedic, but profoundly serious (Irish absurdist tragic) sense.)
Cuaron’s work on Gravity is like conducting Tchaikovsky – big, romantic, with lots of sensory details .
+1
McQueen is always more Mahler – serious & thought-provoking – and I assume his work on 12 Years continues this.
Eh
McQueen = Chopin ??
Just one more point re: AMERICAN HUSTLE. Bradley Cooper must be nominated for Best Supporting Actor, I don’t care who they have leave out (Hint: not Daniel Bruhl)
Jerry,
To me it’s not about GRAVITY vs. 12 YEARS. In fact I wish GRAVITY wasn’t a Best Picture contender. I’d be content with Cuaron being a lock for a Best Director nomination. I’d be happy with that. I don’t need what I think is the best to win Best Picture, never have. I have several other films I’d rather see win Best Picture than 12 YEARS. I really hope AMERICAN HUSTLE takes off and becomes the main “competition” because then 90% of the GRAVITY dismissals will evaporate…because it’s all about the awards. Except then maybe I’ll be defending AMERICAN HUSTLE which I don’t nearly love as much as GRAVITY but do think is Russell’s best since THREE KINGS. THE FIGHTER and SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK were tighter films, but this one is the closest he’s been back to that FLIRTING WITH DISASTER mode, and yeah he’s all over again ripping off Scorsese, Capra and even Wells, but who doesn’t? By the way only 3 out of the 9 nominees from last year made my top 10 and among them your favorites.
Top 10, ’12
1. AMOUR, Michael Haneke
2. IN THE FAMILY, Patrick Wang
3. MOONRISE KINGDOM, Wes Anderson
4. NO, Pablo Larrain
5. DJANGO UNCHAINED, Quentin Tarantino
6. THE MASTER, Paul Thomas Anderson
7. LINCOLN, Steven Spielberg
8. CLOUD ATLAS, Andy & Lana Wachowski
PROMETHEUS, Ridley Scott
9. THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER, Stephen Chbosky
10. LOOPER, Rian Johnson
Bryce I do agree that 12 Years is not as great as some are saying. But to me, Gravity is not the great one either (though I really appreciate your steadfast defenses! I don’t doubt you see more in the movie than most of us.) I haven’t seen *the* truly great film this year that was Lincoln and Amour last year. I’m expecting that Her might be the one, though haven’t seen it yet. But at this point among the contenders I just have to side with 12 Years, and would be glad to see it win.
As important as 12 YEARS might be, it just isn’t a great movie. How about those of us who have to get over -yet again- not having anything remotely decent win Best Picture since 2009?
Gravity is being weakened by AH. Also, the people that love AH also love Her — this is the young forward-looking contingent that (rightfully) see Russell’s and Jonze’s respective film languages as showing a future path for character-based filmmaking.
But no one of those movies emerges from the pack to compete with the importance of 12 Years. (I agree with Sasha in the comparison to Return of the King.) And for that reason we have to predict McQueen as well.
Stop that bullshit about the artistically superior film winning directing. Tom Hooper won best directing for The King’s Speech and he defeated Fincher’s The Social Network.
Ron Howard won over Robert Altman and David Lynch (Gosford Park and Mullholland Drive).
Cameron beat Curtis Hanson.
And the list could go on forever.
And the often mentioned Polanski win should be seen as part of the larger scheme of 2003 and the political situation surrounding the 75th Oscars. I’ve always thought it was the reason for all the wins for The Pianist, Almodovar, 8 Mile etc.
OMG, I have memories of the 75th Oscars. That’s 11 years ago. Being already in the 20’s I really would love to go back to the kid I was back then. The Oscars used to surprise me. Sometimes.
@ Tony
The first thing I said to my old Ma as we left the theater was “I can’t believe she put metal in the science oven!’
As an example of why American Hustle weakens Gravity is over at Gold Derby where most of the experts have 12 YAS as number 1 and up until recently virtually all of them had Gravity as number 2 leading to the obvious conclusion that Gravity was a serious threat , but with the entry of AH the number 2 spot is being split between A H and Gravity ; virtually no one has A H winning just a close second with Gravity
I think that 12 YAS is now increasing it’s lead and leaving both A H and Gravity behind and i’m willing to risk a large ammount of money on that at the Bookies as it seems to me to be unbeatable
JS, I was quoted half-correctly. I had stated that ever since the DGA adopted the same awards calendar Oscar uses starting in 1950 (because in the previous year there was a bit of a debacle of the 1948 and 1949 DGA winners both competing for the 1949 Best Director Oscar), there hadn’t been back-to-back Pic/Director splits.
But as you rightfully point out, that’s not quite the case – Ford and Stevens (who were the Spielberg and Lee of being on the receiving end of splits multiple times before, well, Spielberg and Lee) did indeed win in the back-to-back split years of 1951-1952, but their films didn’t win BP. I think my mind just fogged over Greatest Show on Earth winning BP in 1952, lol.
So the power of my initial stat is a little diminished. Still, back-to-back splits occurring only once in 62 years (and the last occurrence happening in what can be still considered the DGAs infancy) is pretty significant. Again, I equate this with the 71 year trend in which no BP winner has won less than 3 Oscars and not win at least one of director/writing/acting as well.
Can it happen again? Absolutely. Will it? As of now, I don’t think so. But we’ll see how it pans out.
MultipleStatsgasm, gasm #3, please.
“AH” probably won’t win BP, but, as I quoted in another thread, the “science oven” should be the line of the year: “Bring something into this house that’s going to take all the nutrition out of our food, and then light our house on fire? Thank God for me.”
I guess I go back to why I think THE HURT LOCKER is a much more profound reflection of our times than ZERO DARK THIRTY, I’d even argue the former is even more informative. One is art, the other is pseudo-journalism. Oh wait you guys were talking about GRAVITY.
I tend to think there won’t be a split but I’m also concerned that the Academy might find 12 Years “too difficult.” It’s hard to imagine that Cuaron – or his film – would win simply because it’s tech-heavy and has only 2 cast members (the Ang Lee/Pi situation is different). That leaves American Hustle, which I haven’t seen yet. It’s possible AH and McQueen could win in a split but I’ll have to see AH first before deciding.
I tend to think there won’t be a split but I’m also concerned that the Academy might find 12 Years “too difficult.” It’s hard to imagine that Cuaron – or his film – would win simply because it’s tech-heavy and has only 2 cast members (the Ang Lee/Pi situation is different). That leaves American Hustle, which I haven’t seen yet. It’s possible AH and McQueen could win in a split but I’ll have to see AH first before deciding.
I think they’re going to have to get over themselves with 12 Years the way they had to with Return of the King. Clearly many did not like that movie but it was an achievement they couldn’t ignore. I agree with all of your points. The way the critics are responding to American Hustle is, to me, one of the most surprising things about this year. The only model I can think of to predict its win is to say it is Chicago and 12 years is The Pianist. But it isn’t really Chicago because it has a very complicated plot that never really makes sense. I swear, sometimes I think critics only like movies that perplex them because they see so many movies that don’t.
A BP/BD split usually occurs when a more easily digestible film is going to win BP, but the Academy wants to recognize a superior artistic achievement. For that reason, I think 12YAS will take both because it fits the prophile of a winner, but has a master’s style. Of course, tech support might push Cuaron over the top. However, I find it very offensive to chalk a McQueen win, if it happens, to the fact that he’s black. If they felt so compelled, they would’ve awarded Spike Lee years ago.
A BP/BD split usually occurs when a more easily digestible film is going to win BP, but the Academy wants to recognize a superior artistic achievement.
People say that every year. It never pans out. Never. Not when people predict it. The movie that wins director will win picture.
I don’t know anything about Steve McQueen other than his filmography, but that alone is enough to make me confident that whether he wins for 12YAS or not, he’ll be making plenty more awards worthy movies on a whole range of topics.
I think that Spike Lee is truly interested and passionate only when he’s making movies involving race relations. I agree, Sally, that he seems more self-absorbed than most directors.
American Hustle went into the race quite strongly and diminished the chances of a Gravity win for obvious reasons.
^^ I’m not getting a good vibe for AH as BP….when you go to the message boards at IMDB, no one particularly liked the movie, or thought it was such a great movie.
I wish his movie was about something other than slavery. Does anyone else feel that way?
^^ I can see all the Black directors & actors ( Spike lee esp) coming out and saying, yeh they finally awarded best picture for “slavery”.
There are times I wish Spike would champion other black producers and directors….I wish he would become the new “Siskel & Ebert” and step out and say, “this is a good movie, go see THIS movie” instead of thumping his own all the time.
First – I like the way Buford T Justice’s mind works and I also agree with his posts, but with one little caveat:
Cuaron and McQueen are both favourites of mine. Cuaron’s work on Gravity is like conducting Tchaikovsky – big, romantic, with lots of sensory details . McQueen is always more Mahler – serious & thought-provoking – and I assume his work on 12 Years continues this. Both are proficient, but while I tend to favour the latter, the former is far more populist.
Can’t be unhappy in a year where Cuaron, McQueen, Jonze, the Coens and Scorsese are all serious contenders for the BD slots. Oscar logistics being what they are, probably one or two of them will be bumped by Russell and someone else.
My mind tells me that a split is unlikely, but gut instinct does not agree. If, by chance, there is no split, it will be all or nothing for one of these two directors.
@Buford – I agree with all your comments. Nothing to add really.
American Hustle went into the race quite strongly and diminished the chances of a Gravity win for obvious reasons.
One more observation and question (before I call today quits)
Isn’t in funny that both front-runners for both Best Picture and Best Direct (same two movies granted) came out in (American) theaters in October. Is October becoming the new December??….
Just to clarify:
Labor Day and Lone Survivor, wild card films for my own opinion, not that of the AMPAS voters.
I guess one of the main questions to now ask is this:
If there is a split between Best Director and Best Picture, is everyone or even anyone going to be dissapointed?
Having not seen any December released films yet, I would pick it this way:
BP – Gravity
BD – Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Now, tomorrow I am planning on seeing American Hustle, and I hope to soon see The Wolf of Wall Street (after Christmas day of course), and Inside Llewyn Davis. The main wild card films in the race for me are Labor Day and Lone Survivor.
TOM O’NEIL from Gold Derby made an interesting point insomuch that Gravity is such a technical marvel that it will get support from the tech workers in the Guilds …it would be interesting if someone with that type of expertese in the Tech guilds could address this notion
I think that American Hustle takes away Gravity voters ; generallly speaking , the folks who like 12YAS for whatever reason are firm in their belief that it should win and I suspect that the Gravity voters are more likely to be swayed or seduced by the siren song of A H …call it the gravitas factor or even the weight of political correctness , or even duty
GRAVITY lacks gravitas
By claiming that no Hispanic has ever won a Directing Oscar is similar to no black man is bogus ; the critical difference being is that Cuaron has made a movie that is politically /racially neutral , while McQueen’s is an explosive movie , specifically , about the generational crime against black folk and as such there is a critical difference of gravitas
Indeed , 12 YAS attempts to bring the past alive to resurect the dead and to pronounce ” We are here to bear witness for those no longer living ”
I agree with that, Buford. Two very different alternatives, both appealing, split votes and help 12YAS stay in the lead. On the other hand, AH and 12YAS could both split votes as the actors’ films, leaving the technical masterpiece to come out ahead, but when has that ever happened before?
I suspect that the entry of American Hustle in the race actually helps 12 YAS and weakens Gravity …instead of there being a co favorite or strong second place runner there are now two weaker seconds as I suspect that A H takes more votes from Gravity than 12 YAS
I have no factual evidence for this , just an intuitive hunch
And even in the split years, the Best Director choice is usually the film/director they respect the most, the one that their brain tells them is right, while Best Picture is what the heart wants. With almost every split, except arguably Godfather and Cabaret, Best Director goes to the more elitist, intellectual choice. Even with Argo vs. Pi, you could at least argue that Pi was more philosophical than Argo. And Cabaret was heavy stuff for a musical, with Nazis and homosexuality and all.
Cuaron could definitely win. Russell probably won’t win (Director). But I think McQueen is the frontrunner unless Cuaron sweeps the precursors and/or 12YAS itself somehow loses the momentum.
For those of us paying attention , the lack of a SAG nomme for REDFORD was decisive , as was the lack of a nomme for Oprah in the Golden Globes …indeed , it seems quite clear to me that both EJIOFOR and NYONGO will easily win an Oscar as they personify ,PERFECTLY ,two very sympathetic victims of slavery
The B D race is very , very difficult to call , but I think the fact that no black man has ever won a directing Oscar will be just enough to tip the scales in favor of McQueen ….try to imagine Oscar night with Ejiofor and Nyongo on stage after winning their oscars and 12 YAS winning B P and then no Mcqueen to take the directing Oscar ; it’s difficult to imagine because it’s unlikely to happen as there will be an irrisistable momentum to reward McQueen
@Al Robinson, Silver Linings was too slight. A comedy. I suspect American Hustle will face the same problem, though he has a great shot for the screenplay, especially since he’ll be seen as overdue and having produced one of the most likable contenders.
Yes, Ang Lee won, but we all know that had Affleck been nominated, he would’ve won. Because that was the film and those were the people the voters wanted to honor. Maybe Argo itself wouldn’t have won Best Picture had Affleck been nominated, but it probably still would’ve, given how strongly the backlash registered all season long, given Argo’s unprecedented awards-season sweep for a film without a Best Director nomination.
But the bottom line is that the Academy will go with an, if not THE, actors’ film over a technical accomplishment, unless those coincide, the film is sweeping everything anyway, or their hand is forced (i.e., Ang Lee).
Folks who claimed that 12 YAS was ”too violent ”and difficult to watch are talking utter rubbish …..the Academy liked the ultra violent NO COUNTRY , GLADIATOR and SCHINDLER’S LIST …they even like Tarantino’s blood splattered movies and considering that NYONGO is very likely to win BSA for her portrayal of a victim of rape and wipping it seems to me that the so called ”violence ”is not a handicap , but a major selling point for the movie creating the most iconic moments
Well Said Jonathan, “here here”! 🙂
Correct me if I’m wrong, but wouldn’t Alfonso Cuarón be the first Latin American director to win if he took home the gold? He was born in Mexico City and McQueen in London. All of this “let’s reward McQueen because he would be the first black director to win” is stupid. They would be firsts for both. McQueen just happens to be darker-skinned. I loved both 12 Years and Gravity and I think it would be most appropriate to hand 12 Years picture and Cuarón director. McQueen gets his highly-praised film honored with picture and Cuarón gets his seven year dedication to Gravity honored with director.
I’ve been getting the glitches all day. This is the first time it looked normal. It’s been mostly black screen with just small pics and links. And the top topic was still State of the Race part 2. It only updated now.
Anyway, I saw AMERICAN HUSTLE today. It’s my new favorite but it’s still not perfect. I’ve still got room for a new favorite before this year is over, so we shall see. The performances were amazing though. I do wonder if I missed some things. There was a lot of conning going on and I might have become confused. lol I usually don’t need a second viewing but maybe this time.
Having now seen the three consensus frontrunner films to win Best Picture, Gravity, American Hustle, and 12 Years a Slave, I have no doubt in my mind which of the three stands out as the best and should take the Oscars:
It’s 12 Years a Slave. And I would vote it to win Best Picture and Best Director. No Split. Yes, it has an air of importance, but there is powerhouse direction to back it up, the work of an artist. The juxtaposition of images, the silences and the louds, the shot composition and execution, the staging. It moved me unlike the other two, but is really backed up by exceptional artistry and vision.
But to be fair, the glitches have not all happened today. They have happened over the last few weeks. But most of the glitches are very minor, and not worth saying anything over.
daveinprogress,
Yes, I have seen all kinds of glitches. And I am also on Google Chrome.
(Sorry AD). He asked the question, and I wanted to answer him.
Sorry for the double entry.I am having lots of difficulty both seeing the site and then sending an entry. I switched to Google Chrome which was better then it crashed too. I was only seeing some of the data and it was not updating. Not sure how many others having trouble also.
I believe the word that every year is trying to find is the: consensus.
I don’t know if this year will have a consensus Best Picture or Best Director. I have so far seen reasons to believe that Her, American Hustle, Gravity, or 12 Years a Slave can win for Best Picture and / or Best Director. To me, that is not a consensus. Or at least there isn’t one yet. There may not be when all is said and done. >.<
Looking at the last decade or so, it has been a mix of directors being rewarded for bold visions, Ang Lee, Kathryn Bigelow, Peter Jackson and a few for AMPAS not having had the kahunas to reward them earlier – Coens, Marty, Only a couple i perceive as an actors movie – Million Dollar Baby, King’s Speech = hardly visionary pieces of celluloid. It is pretty hard to conclude about this category or BP either. If there is a compelling narrative that forms sometimes as late as the end of the race itself, then a Slumdog or Artist will prevail. I think this year’s is still unfolding. It will obviously come to two or three. Looks like Gravity, AH and 12years. Time tells!
Looking at the last decade or so, it has been a mix of directors being rewarded for bold visions, Ang Lee, Kathryn Bigelow, Peter Jackson and a few for not having had the kahunas to reward them earlier – Coens, Marty, Only a couple i perceive as an actors movie – Million Dollar Baby, King’s Speech = hardly visionary pieces of celluloid. It is pretty hard to conclude about this category or BP either. If there is a compelling narrative that forms sometimes as late as the end of the race itself, then a Slumdog or Artist will prevail. I think this year’s is still unfolding. It will obviously come to two or three. Looks like Gravity, AH and 12years. Time tells!
Heck, even the great Woody Allen has only won Best Director once, and he always seems to get his actor’s nominated, or even win.
(Woody Allen won BD in 1977 for Annie Hall, which he also won BP)
“The Academy loves movies that showcase actors, even/especially in the Best Director race.”
Zach,
That may be, but then how come David O. Russell hasn’t won BD yet?
Her is a more interesting sci-fi movie than Gravity.
I’ll take:
PPM for “Blowin’ in the Wind”
Patsy Cline for “Crazy” and
Patti Smith for “Because the Night.”
I agree, as much as Cuaron’s praise is deserved, they won’t turn down the chance to honor a black director for the first time, for the first and only great movie about slavery, and a movie with actual actors, at this point in U.S. history, if they’re already awarding the movie. Count up those factors.
I’ll agree with Eladola, though, that even in 2000 I knew that Gladiator would win Picture but not Director? (And why was that?) I’ll confess that it was my first year of Oscarwatching as well, and I surely thought that Ang Lee would win as the artsy choice, with the DGA behind him. Soderbergh was considered a surprise, but in hindsight, of course not. And rule of thumb: the Academy loves movies that showcase actors, even/especially in the Best Director race.
Personally no. But that’s because I’m such a big fan of all three, especially Bob Dylan, that I wouldn’t want to hear anyone else sing their songs. All three of those performers are very definitive in their style. Only they can do real justice to their own songs. 🙂
Al,
It’s all good. 🙂
—
O.O.T. (tangent from “Llewyn”): Does anybody else think think that Bob Dylan, as well as Willie Nelson and Bruce Springsteen, should write songs then give them to others to sing?
Tony, my last comment wasn’t directed at you. It just so happened that my comment appeared 1 minute after yours.
I mean, just look at last year when Ang Lee won Best Director for Life of Pi.
I’m not pro-“Gravity” for BP, but I can see the academy picking Cuaron for BD, because it took so long for him to make it.
I can see the academy picking Cuaron for BD, because it took so long for him to make it.
I’ve always felt that the PGA in particular sometimes awards extra points for perseverance, difficulty, overcoming obstacles, struggles to get movies made. Obe example is Little Miss Sunshine, which has mediocre onscreen production values by any mrasure but the backstory of the hardscrabble husband and wife producers pushed it into the nomination circle.
Now in terms of Best Director, they way I’ve tended to look at it is that the voters should pick the movie that was the best mix of technical and storytelling. 12 Years a Slave is geared more towards Best Picture, while Gravity is then geared more towards Best Director. The technicality of making Gravity appears to have been much more difficult than making 12 Years a Slave, which looks to have only needed good editing.
I just re-read my own comment, and I think it may have been a bit confusing.
Easy: Best Picture is better than Best Director (if you only win 1 of them)
Easy: To finally award a black director, it would be nice if the movie wasn’t about slavery.
One thing though about the idea that the academy members will not be able to pass up the opportunity to finally reward a black director with Best Director, I think that if they give Steve McQueen Best Picture, that’s almost better than Best Director. The one problem I have with all of that is that I wish if they are going to reward Steve McQueen with either BP or BD, I wish his movie was about something other than slavery. Does anyone else feel that way?
Kinda tough to be accused of racism if Chewetel and Lupita win, but not McQueen.
—
O.T. “Llewyn” has lots of style, but a bit short on substance. I’m going to be judgmental for a moment (shocker!) — IRL I dislike couch surfing Llewyn types.
When 12 YAS wins BP , BA , BSActress , B screenplay it’s going to be very , very , VERY difficult not to reward Mcqueen , even if he doesn’t deserve it …..the Academy voters are not going to miss an opportunity to make history and if they do ignore him they will leave themselves open to bogus accusations of racism
McQueen will win Best Director
Also, it would be silly to suggest that a split can happen every other year (as it did in 1998, 2000, and 2002 — and 2005) but not consecutively. Did the Academy “return to normal” and then changed, and then “returned to normal” and then changed, and then “returned to normal” for two years, and then changed, and then “returned to normal”? 😉
But I see your larger argument, and you’re probably correct about 12 Years.
Unlikely Hood,
Picture and Director split in both 1948 and 1949, and in 1951 and 1952. Perhaps you meant, “in the last 56 years”?
But, at the same time, I could see a scenario where American Hustle breaks through in either category. David O. Russell seems to be climbing the proverbial Oscar mountain to the top.
^^ I cannot see AH as BP. I mean it’s ARGO 2.0 and we just had a “like” movie win last year. I can see David Russell winning for best screenplay. The story took a lot of attention to follow….although at times the acting was a bit over the top. Great ensemble.
I think that 12 Years a Slave will win BP
I think that Alfonso Cuaron will win BD for Gravity
I think this is absolutely the kind of year where a split happens. The critics have so much to choose from. But, at the same time, I could see a scenario where American Hustle breaks through in either category. David O. Russell seems to be climbing the proverbial Oscar mountain to the top.
Splits are so last year, literally! Make this a solid win for Gravity, BP & BD together!
My rationale:
Gravity is in the #3 slot for BP, not #2. AH is #2.
I think those who vote for 12 Years for BP will also vote for McQueen. It’s a historic vote.
Cuaron has the Ang Lee spot, but Lee was in luck last year because Affleck wasn’t nominated. McQueen will be nominated.
Some of Gravity’s gravitas is diminishing with the rise of AH.
12 Years for BP and BD.
Back from seeing Amer Hustle….does Christian Bale know how good an actor he is?
Movie could have shaved about 10-15 minutes off….2-1/2 hrs is too doggone long….that’s why I won’t see Wolf in the theaters (3hrs). Who has that kind of time?
AH got a little boring in the middle and I started watching time…but it had a nice kick and twist near the end. But after it was over, I thought — great screenplay….but do I care about any of these people and what happened to them? Nope. But it was a good movie.
I think it is not 12 YRS vs. Gravity. It is 12YRS vs. AH.
Gravity is in the third place just ahead of Her, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis and still a long shot for a BP or BD win.
Paddy, thanks for correcting my Mexican directors confusion. 😉 I shook Guillermo’s hand at the TIFF Gravity premiere.
Marshall pointed out that in the 66 years since the DGA awards began, a BD/BP split has never happened 2 years in a row. Technically, last year was a split. Perhaps there’s some desire to “return to normal” in that 66-year history. Rules are made to be broken, as we’ve seen, but I smell a 12YAS plurality in these two categories.
Agreed. I’ve been saying for a while that these split predicts and results are making it less likely for either film to happen because that is not consensus.
I think 12 Years wins either both or neither. In the event of a split I agree it will be Cuaron and Hustle.
Simone, Alfonso Cuaron didn’t direct Pan’s Labyrinth. Guillermo del Toro did.
Pan’s Labyrinth was Del toro’s, And they were both competing the same year anyways 😉
I don’t see a split. It’s McQueen and 12 Years for both. I love Cuaron and wish he could have gotten Best Director for Children of Men or Pan’s labyrinth, but not for Gravity.
You had me till you said Soderbergh was a surprise.
Even as a pre “Oscar watch” 14 year old i knew that one was coming
(I copied this from my other posting on the Nevada critics winners)
Here are the splits so far (with Gravity winning Director, 12YAS winning film unless otherwise noted):
Online Film Critics Society
NY Critics Online
LA Critics (film went to Her)
San Diego Critics (film went to Her)
DC Film Critics
Phoenix Critics
Detroit Critics (film went to Her)
Houston Critics
San Fran Critics
Kansas (although a tie in Director for Gravity and 12YAS)
Dallas Fort Worth Critics
Austin Critics (film went to Her)
Toronto Critics (film went to Inside Llewyn Davis)
Nevada
Village Voice (dir went to 12YAS and film went to Inside Llewyn)
NY Film Critics (dir went to 12YAS and film went to American Hustle)