[Note: Part 1, posted last night, gave us an intro to the simulation methodology]
by Marshall Flores
With that out of the way, let’s begin our simulation. “Hold on to your butts.” I’m going to divide the entire BP nomination process into three rounds, each round consisting of multiple steps.
Round 1: Initial Allocation, Victory Threshold, and the Surplus Rule
We begin the first round of voting by separating the 505 top 10 lists I’ve compiled into piles of films receiving #1 votes. It turns out that although 357 films received votes from this sample of lists, only 80 films received #1 votes. The top 20 leaders in terms of #1 votes are:
After we sort the ballots by their #1s, we then have to perform a few calculations. First, we’ll determine the initial victory threshold, the level of #1 support a film needs to get BP nominated off-the-bat. The victory threshold is approximately 9.1% of the total ballots cast (which is then rounded up to the nearest whole number), so 0.091 * 505 = 46 #1 votes.