We’ll leave the nominees listed in this post as a reminder of who the BFCA passed over in favor of the winners (noted in * bold).

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Inside Llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks
* 12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Christian Bale – American Hustle
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
* Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford – All Is Lost

* Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench – Philomena
Brie Larson – Short Term 12
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl – Rush
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
* Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Scarlett Johansson – Her
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
* Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb – Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Asa Butterfield – Ender’s Game
* Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue Is the Warmest Color
Liam James – The Way Way Back
Sophie Nelisse – The Book Thief
Tye Sheridan – Mud

* American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

* Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze – Her
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Eric Singer and David O. Russell – American Hustle
Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine
* Spike Jonze – Her
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis
Bob Nelson – Nebraska

Tracy Letts – August: Osage County
Richard Linklater & Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke – Before Midnight
Billy Ray – Captain Phillips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope – Philomena
* John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter – The Wolf of Wall Street

* Emmanuel Lubezki – Gravity
Bruno Delbonnel – Inside Llewyn Davis
Phedon Papamichael – Nebraska
Roger Deakins – Prisoners
Sean Bobbitt – 12 Years a Slave

Andy Nicholson (Production Designer), Rosie Goodwin (Set Decorator) – Gravity
* Catherine Martin (Production Designer), Beverley Dunn (Set Decorator) – The Great Gatsby
K.K. Barrett (Production Designer), Gene Serdena (Set Decorator) – Her
Dan Hennah (Production Designer), Ra Vincent (Set Decorator) – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Adam Stockhausen (Production Designer), Alice Baker (Set Decorator) – 12 Years a Slave

Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers – American Hustle
Christopher Rouse – Captain Phillips
* Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger – Gravity
Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill – Rush
Joe Walker – 12 Years a Slave
Thelma Schoonmaker – The Wolf of Wall Street

Michael Wilkinson – American Hustle
* Catherine Martin – The Great Gatsby
Bob Buck, Lesley Burkes-Harding, Ann Maskrey, Richard Taylor – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Daniel Orlandi – Saving Mr. Banks
Patricia Norris – 12 Years a Slave

* American Hustle
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
12 Years a Slave

* Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek into Darkness

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
* Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Iron Man 3
* Lone Survivor
Star Trek into Darkness

Henry Cavill – Man of Steel
Robert Downey Jr. – Iron Man 3
Brad Pitt – World War Z
* Mark Wahlberg – Lone Survivor

* Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Jennifer Lawrence – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Evangeline Lilly – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Gwyneth Paltrow – Iron Man 3

* American Hustle
Enough Said
The Heat
This Is the End
The Way Way Back
The World’s End

Christian Bale – American Hustle
* Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Simon Pegg – The World’s End
Sam Rockwell – The Way Way Back

* Amy Adams – American Hustle
Sandra Bullock – The Heat
Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Enough Said
Melissa McCarthy – The Heat

The Conjuring
* Gravity
Star Trek into Darkness
World War Z

* Blue Is the Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past

The Act of Killing
Stories We Tell
Tim’s Vermeer
* 20 Feet from Stardom

Atlas – Coldplay – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Happy – Pharrell Williams – Despicable Me 2
* Let It Go – Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez – Frozen
Ordinary Love – U2 – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Please Mr. Kennedy – Justin Timberlake/Oscar Isaac/Adam Driver – Inside Llewyn Davis
Young and Beautiful – Lana Del Rey – The Great Gatsby

* Steven Price – Gravity
Arcade Fire – Her
Thomas Newman – Saving Mr. Banks
Hans Zimmer – 12 Years a Slave

Load More Related Articles
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  • Ra S.


  • phantom

    DiCaprio continues his winning streak. If he wins Bafta, he’ll win the Oscar. Just a hunch.

  • Akumax

    Plaese, someone can help me with a link to a streaming?

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Gerwig didn’t a fuck about this

  • phantom


    There is a link in the previous comments section, looks legit.

  • GoOnNow

    any live stream link? Thanks 😛

  • Bryce Forestieri

    WTF. Couldn’t they just give it to THE WORLD’S END. Bunch of blowjobs

  • Bryce Forestieri
  • edkargir

    If Leo wins the oscar I will throw up .

  • Bryce Forestieri

    People, get some new material for tomorrow’s speeches. Everyone repeating themselves.

  • superkk

    i wanna see how bafta plays out but im becoming confident leo/adams will take home the oscars. depends on bafta though…

  • I was in the other thread talking to myself. The site is doing that thing where you have to refresh on the main page again instead of just hitting “home” or whatever.

  • david

    Larson will beat Blanchett tonight for the second time head to head

  • Eloy

    Amy Adams Best Comedy Actress!!!!

  • Akumax

    thank you phantom!

  • I feel like Mark Wahlberg is overdressed.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    I miss marky mark

  • Akumax


  • Oooo….. Sandy is a potty mouth.

  • GoOnNow

    Thanks for the link Brycee

  • A.J

    Lol at people commenting thinking that these comedy awards count. Adams and DiCaprio were both predetermined to win these when nominations were announced. Nothing to see here and they were both snubbed in the big categories.

  • phantom


    I’m sorry your months-long championing of Brie Larson didn’t result an Oscar nomination but now it is time to let go, she will not beat Blanchett or anyone else tonight. Her reward is this nomination and all the great future roles the Short Term 12 exposure will bring her.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Bullock is so consistently chill

  • Bryce Forestieri


  • There are just too many people there.

    So the cast of AH is missing their fearless leader, the Bale.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    It’s all CW presenters?

  • Leave david alone.

  • Tom Hanks was asking Matthew McConaughey what it’s like to be a popular actor. He can’t remember.

    lol j/k

    You guys should like try posting and stuff.

  • what did I miss in the last 10 minutes? (phone call)

  • Damn. Oprah lost weight again. She thought she was getting that nom.

  • what did I miss in the last 10 minutes?

    First I talked to myself in the other thread. Now in this one.

  • were you funny? anything I can steal and use in a tweet?

  • have they seriously only handed out 4 awards so far? — 40 more categories to go?

  • were you funny?


    I think they give out some off camera. It’s a really bad show so far even though nearly everyone is there and gussied up.

  • Akumax

    Ryan, they gave Best foreign film to Blue…

  • Akumax

    and ensemble to American Hustle

  • Pepper

    “Tom Hanks was asking Matthew McConaughey what it’s like to be a popular actor. He can’t remember.”

    Shall we compare the grosses of the films they starred in this year?

  • Raphael

    DiCaprio 🙂 YEAH!!!! Thats what i’m talking about!!!!!

  • Pepper you could like try a sense of humor. j/k means “just kidding” you know. 😛 I’ve been saying no one likes Tom Hanks for weeks and it’s hilarious because everyone likes Tom Hanks. See what I did there?

  • Akumax

    I just had to picture M streep peeing … no no thanks… no

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Yay. I saw 5 seasons of Supernatural and don’t remember why stopped

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Let it go? I wanted Lana del Rey at the Oscars :/

  • Eloy

    I have a fear… In 2003 Adrien Brody is the only of the list Without an Oscar.
    Michael Caine, Nicolas Cage and Daniel Day Lewis have 1 and Nicholson 3.

    This year the only of the list is Amy Adams… David O’Russel wins again????

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Liam James FTW!

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Wow this is some ghetto award for the best performance of the year by a woman. Good job, America.

  • Akumax

    she is there! why didn’t she went up to receive the best foreign film award???

  • Oh she’s very French.

  • Eloy


  • Claudiu Dobre

    “Wow this is some ghetto award for the best performance of the year by a woman. Good job, America.”

    I’m just glad I got to see Adele win something – she’s cool… and so deserving!…

  • Bryce Forestieri

    She’ll win the Caesar, I bet

  • david

    I love ya your one of the few on here who’s opinion I respect, but I still believe that Larson can win and she was robbed of an Oscar nom fact!!!!! As was Keith Stanfield for best original song that was a bigger robbery!!!!

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Will Leto tell the Brazilian joke *again*?

  • Vily

    Did Leo give a speech? How was it? He must be oozing with confidence and joy after an amazing week:

    Getting the BAFTA nod
    Winning the Globe
    Getting the Oscar nod
    Winning the BFCA Best Comedy Actor

    4/4 baby! Yes!! Same for Amy!

  • Eloy

    Jared Leto wins best supporting actor!

  • phantom


    All right, whatever suits you better

  • phantom

    Uh-oh Leto is so winning that Oscar.

  • phantom

    YAY Lupita !!!

  • Yeah Lupita’s gonna win Best Dressed all season.

  • Aragorn

    Oprah cries over any black actor/actress winning anything…

  • Ra S.


  • Aragorn

    She is soooooo pretty!!! and this comes from a gay guy!

  • Bryce Forestieri

    That was some speech from Lupita Nyong’o. So powerful

  • Claudiu Dobre

    Lupita, babyyyyyyyyyyyy!!! Nice speech, too (even though she totally forgot Oprah)…

  • scary

    Jennifer got Golden Globes.
    Lupita gets Critics’ Choice.
    June will get SAG.
    Sally will get BAFTA.

  • Aragorn

    I dont think Jennifer Lawrence will win Oscar…I think it is Lupita’s to lose…However, I also think that Lupita or Jennifer could be the only major win for their movies….So, anything is possible…As long as Amy does not win! I feel sorry as I really like her since her Junebug performance bu she should not win over Cate B.

  • Bob Burns

    Lupita gave the best awards speech this season.

  • Beautiful speech and beautiful woman, but did Lupita just acknowledge all the nominees except Oprah? That’s gonna hurt in the morning.

  • Mike

    David, give it up.. you’re almost delusional at this point

  • Mike

    Lupita is so beautiful, and she deserves that Oscar

  • Jerry Grant

    Lupita won?? So there IS a serious chance at the Oscars!!

  • Aragorn

    How come Sandra Bullock got nominated for best actress in an action movie but Gravity didnt get Best Action Movie nod???? I think they really wanted to award Sandra tonight! Otherwise it should have gone to J.Lawrence for Hunger Games

  • Bryce Forestieri

    I think Lupita almost said Sally Hawkins in her speech

  • David, give it up.. you’re almost delusional at this point

    I hate bullies.

  • Aragorn

    and this host is just horrible!!! she is not funny at all…the more she tries to be funny, the worse she gets….

  • As I said on twitter, they should get rock stars to host this show. That room is too big for normal people to handle. At the very least they can get an actor who’s played a rock star.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    That stupid narration on those beautiful clips of the trilogy. Some garbage production!

  • edkargir

    Before midnight should have been nominated for best picture. Much better than Wolf and Philomena

  • Aragorn

    The lowest grossing trilogy…that was funny:)

  • Bob Burns

    that was in character

  • Akumax

    I don’t think so!!!! Before Midnight is NOT much better than The Wolf of Philomania!

  • Hipper

    every year i tell myself this show is as bad as i remember, and every year i’m proved wrong. this “awards” show is so embarrassing, no wonder they squeeze it in every year between SAG and GG so people are already in LA to attend.

    i mean, hollywood’s hottest star award? yikes. this is a slight step up from the people’s choice award here…

  • Aragorn

    That stupid host!! Now repeating the same unfunny jokes!

  • Akumax

    I LOVE U!

  • Aragorn

    Alfonso Cuaron…very deservedly so….

  • After the Oscar noms this morning I kinda thought GRAVITY was the new frontrunner. If this keeps going this way I’ll definitely think it.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Screenplay wins relegated to a clip. That’s it. I’m done with this bullshit.

  • Akumax

    so, Her for best screenplay

  • Akari

    I’m happy with both the original and adapted screenplay.

  • Akumax

    You are right Bryce… “Screenplay wins relegated to a clip. That’s it. I’m done with this bullshit”

  • joe

    The worlds end shouldve won best comedy
    evangline lilly shouldve son best actress un a action movie
    Lone survivor shouldve won best action movie

  • phantom

    Glad for Jonze and Ridley, very deserving winners !

  • Aragorn

    They didnt need that host at all…They could have used that time to recognize screenplay awards during the telecast

  • Claudiu Dobre

    :)) That’s unreal… The host is the chick from Friends (she was in 2-3 episodes in Season 2 or 3, I think). Had no idea who she was before I looked her up. Didn’t recognize her.

  • Aragorn

    Joe, Lone Survivor in fact won the best action movie…they announced it when Mark Wahlberg was walking to stage to pick his award!

  • With its BFCA win tonight, “Let It Go” is now the “locked” predicted winner for AD’s Original Song model. Some of you can put away your pitchforks now. 🙂

    Also, 20 Feet to Stardom takes the lead in AD’s Documentary model with its win tonight as well.

  • representDLV

    This host is so hard to watch. I cringe every time she opens her mouth.

  • She looks like lettuce!

  • Aragorn

    Probably MMC or Bruce Dern

  • Aragorn

    Matthew!!! and now he even has his own catchy “alright alright alright” thing! He is the one to beat at the Oscar, imo….Maybe Leo can do that with some good and smart strategy

  • edkargir

    Chiwetell got robbed . Mathew is very good in Dallas.

  • Akari

    Matthew will win the oscar. I don’t mind if he wins. (He was my second choice after Chiwetel)

  • Aragorn

    OK…Maybe after this quite lengthy and boring speech, Acedemy voters may change their mind:)

  • Ra S.

    it is going to be Matthew or Leo

  • Aragorn

    Matthew is my second choice after Leo…

  • Akumax

    Gravity!!!! Best editing, Best Cinematography and Best VFX

    NOW go for it… Best Picture…

  • superkk

    *yawn* matthew and jared really need to work on their speeches. almost fell asleep during this horrible show….

  • Jay

    Hooray Lupita! I’m getting a little obsessed with her . . . and I LOVE it!

  • Akari

    Chiwetel has a chance of winning the oscar. If he wins the sag and the bafta (Like Kevin Spacey in American Beauty.)

  • bennett

    I wonder what’s the point about nominating Blackfish as one of the five best documentaries of the year and when it comes to sell tv advertising you take money from SeaWorld and invite your watchers to like SeaWorld.

    I guess this people from BFCA didn’t watch Blackfish or just didn’t get the point of it. Or simply don’t care about ideas.

  • Claudiu Dobre

    Yeah, looks like both Actor races are completely locked, even pre-SAG.

  • Jerry Grant

    12 Years wins screenplay (over WOWS), and American Hustle doesn’t.

    ^Clue #1 that 12 Years is winning Best Picture here

  • Aragorn

    Yes, Cate the Great!!! Genius who goes by the name of Cate Blanchett!:)

  • I’ve always wondered why more people don’t bring their kids.

    And the march begins! Go Cate!!!

  • Ra S.

    Jerry Grant, Gravity won Directing and Editing could also win picture ^_^

  • Kansiov

    @Claudiu Dobre

    Matthew doesn’t have a BAFTA nomination, that could sting.

  • Patrick

    Jerry Grant, well, AH did beat 12YAS in ensemble, where they were directly in competition. Despite that, I agree that 12YAS is most likely winning picture here.

  • Claudiu Dobre

    Honestly, if 12 Years doesn’t win, I hope Gravity gets the BP Oscar – that, at least, I can understand, as opposed to AH…

  • Aragorn

    I think either Gravity or 12 Years a Slave will win this…or this could be my wishful thinking:)

  • Claudiu Dobre

    “Matthew doesn’t have a BAFTA nomination, that could sting.”

    Yeah, but he’s winning everywhere else and his character is just so perfect for the Academy’s tastes in acting (not that I don’t think he did a great job).

  • Jerry Grant

    Of course AH won Best Ensemble. That’s because it had the best and most memorable ensemble of the year. It’s also why all four actors were nominated at the Oscars. But that doesn’t mean it’s the best picture; it’s not, and everyone knows it.

  • Claudiu Dobre

    Oh, yeah, it was later, like season 9 or season 10…

  • Aragorn

    I wonder why they decided to have Meryl Streep hand out the Best Director while Julia Roberts give the biggest award of the night?

  • Aragorn

    It is still a contender!!!

  • Well. There it is. No more hand wringing now.

  • JP

    Everything would be working perfect for 12 Years a Slave weren’t the underperformance in the Oscar nominations.

  • Ra S.

    I hope Gravity wins PGA and DGA just to shake up the race lol

  • Jerry Grant

    Did 12 Years win?

  • Patrick

    Sweet. My weather forecast is still accurate:
    12YAS wins BFCA, AH wins SAG, Gravity wins DGA and BAFTA.

  • WW

    Ryan, I believe ”The Great Gatsby” won Costume Design, not ”American Hustle.”

  • I wonder why they decided to have Meryl Streep hand out the Best Director while Julia Roberts give the biggest award of the night?

    Because Meryl had to go and ask Hanks what McConaughey said it was like to be a popular actor. 😛

  • Mike

    Aragorn, I would have it the other way.. but Meryl and Julia still remains the two most influential female movie stars of the past 40 years.

  • Akari

    Matthew can either follow the foot step of George Clooney (win critics choice and golden globe but lost the oscar) or Sandra Bullock (win the oscar without being nom for a bafta)

  • phantom

    If the SAG Ensemble goes to 12 Years a Slave, it WILL win Best Picture. If it goes to American Hustle, we have a real race to look forward to.

  • Bob Burns

    PGA is the tiebreaker.

  • WW, thanks!

  • I know this is a place of predictions and all that, but am I the only one that still thinks that one award has no bearing over another award?

    Meaning if 95% of actors who won Award A also won Award B, and Current Actor just won Award A, it means nothing about him winning or losing Award B. Am I the only one who thinks that?

  • Yvette

    Cate, MMC, Leto.

  • Aragorn


    that is what I thought…I believe there is an untold hierarchy when it comes to stars handing out awards, but again you never know…

  • JP, 12YAS got 9 friggin’ Oscar nominations. It’s ok, relax.

  • Sasha/Ryan – don’t you feel “bad” for the Academy in a way about the choices they have to make. Granted, I put the “bad” in huge huge quotation marks but still. Some of these precursors are such bs. They have three different best picture categories so they don’t have to make the hard choice between the smart movie (12 years/gravity/wolf) and the easy movie (hustle). They can just punt by giving everyone love.

    The Academy has a much harder choice to make–and I mean they end up being cowards, but in this sense they just reflect a broader industry made up of the critics choices and golden globes types that do not want to have to decide the hard questions. They are those cowards too.

  • phantom

    By the way, people, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The Golden Globe / Critics Choice awards help with perception but aren’t necessarily great Oscar-predictors, not one member who voters for those two is also an Oscar voter unlike many Guild and Bafta voters.

    George Clooney (The Descendants) and Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) won the Golden Globe (in Drama no less) AND the Critics Choice, making them the early frontrunners and then they both lost to the SAG / BAFTA winners.

  • Aragorn

    I think still the biggest winner of the night is Gravity if we go with the number of awards it won! Not sure about the final numbers though

  • Jerry Grant

    12 Years!!!!!!

    Guys, let’s face it. It’s winning Best Picture at the Oscars. I thought I was going nuts. Depictions of AH being “the one that everyone loves this year” and “the frontrunner” has just been wrong, stemming from a misunderstanding of the widespread admiration of the movie. I would have nominated those four actors too, and it makes perfect sense that it has 10 nominations, but it’s not my–or most people’s–#1 for the year. In fact, I don’t know anybody (except David Denby) who put AH at #1. Anyhow, very gratified that our frontrunner is made clear.

  • Claudiu Dobre

    Anybody think this win for 12 Years (+maybe the Lupita and Screenplay wins) has any real significance for the BP race?

  • Jerry Grant

    American Hustle will win SAG ensemble, and that won’t matter. It’s the best acting ensemble, but it’s not the best picture. Simple as that.

  • Patrick

    “PGA is the tiebreaker.” – Bob Burns


  • Scott

    Leo had less formidable competition. Matthew is still the front runner and deservedly so.

  • Aragorn

    I know this is not the right place but I just saw this and wanted to share…I hope it will happen as this country needs to do something with all the guns..

  • JP

    @ Simone

    It’s good. But it was definitely not supposed to get less nominations than American Hustle. It was supposed to get at least 11 nominations and could easily reach 13.

    It lost two sound bids to The Hobbit, a score bid to the Arcade Fire (deservingly so actually) and a cinematography bid to Prisoners and The Grandmasters. A nomination in score would be a clear sign of strength… it’s a mono-theme-Incpetion-simillar score, but if it had broad support it would have gotten in.

    9 is good but considering it’s a period film, it definitely underperformed compared to American Hustle, that only didn’t score 11 because the make-up branch crazily snubbed it.

  • Patrick

    Just a reminder that the memberships of the HFPA (100) and the BFCA (250) tell us virtually nothing about the consensus favorite of the 6000 members of AMPAS.

  • Yvette

    Harvey is on Piers Morgan – getting a head start on the Oscar campaign.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Great sign for 12 YEARS I agree, but sticking to my guns that PGA is the new truth-teller and it may very well be 12 YEARS (as I predicted), but whatever wins, it’ll be it.

  • Guanyu

    Hard to tell how important these awards are at the moment but they do seem to bolster 12 years and slow the Hustle momemtum (assuming anyone is paying attention to these awards, i’ve no clue as to their relevence.)

    Lupita winning was cool I guess.
    Bafta could be crucial this year.

  • representDLV

    I just think Gravity is superior to 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle. After watching 12YAS and AH, I felt disappointed. I felt like I was supposed to like 12YAS because of its subject matter and I was supposed to like AH because of its cast. But both were good movies that could have been great. When I saw Gravity, I was blown away. It’s the only film I was excited to see again and recommend to my friends.

  • Aragorn

    No matter how much Harvey tries, Philomena is not winning Best Picture…neither is Meryl Streep (even though she is good!)…Julia Roberts win would be shocking though:))

  • JP

    This could be a unique Oscars total tally

    Gravity: 7
    12 YAS: 2 or 3 (Picture, Screenplay and maybe Lupita)
    American Hustle: 1 or 2 (Screenplay and Lawrence)
    Dallas Buyers Club: 3

    Gravity with 4 Oscars ahead of the 2nd highest winner… and will still not win Best Picture.

  • JP

    Harvey will get U2 the Oscars they should have since Gangs of New York.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    I’m just glad that even though I don’t take my own predicting seriously I never ever (I think) said 12 YEARS would not win Best Picture, and never ever suggested GRAVITY or HUSTLE would/could win. That’s something.

  • Patrick

    JP, that’s probably the “safest” scenario for Oscar voters, considering that Cuaron, McQueen and Russell would all walk away with Oscars. Now just let Her win Original Song so that Jonze can win one too.

  • Chris138

    Looks almost identical to the Golden Globes in the major categories. It’s so odd seeing these wins spread out so much. I’ll be surprised if 12 Years a Slave wins at the Oscars that it will only go home with two or three Oscars. It just seems so… low.

  • g

    Great show, Aisha Tyler was great. Loved lupita she was so cute when she won. So happy 12 years won bp!

  • ObamaWins

    Sasha, are you still being a defeatist now? Your predictions were totally off. AH didn’t sweep, did it? Not only it didn’t sweep, it lost writing, directing, and acting. Maybe you should be more optimistic from now on.

  • Jeremy

    Don’t make too much of this, the PGA will decide all, etc

  • Robert A.

    “Guys, let’s face it. It’s winning Best Picture at the Oscars. I thought I was going nuts. Depictions of AH being “the one that everyone loves this year” and “the frontrunner” has just been wrong, stemming from a misunderstanding of the widespread admiration of the movie.”

    I think it’s too soon to call the race until we start hearing from the guilds, but I know what you mean, Jerry Grant. I also was baffled when people started declaring American Hustle the likely winner almost from out of nowhere. The problem for AH is this: most BP winners need to win at least one of director/screenplay/editing. AH was supposed to be the original screenplay winner, but Her has been beating it recently. If AH can’t win original screenplay, and if Cuaron is indeed as far out front in director as people think, then what does AH have to win to vault it to a BP prize? Editing is doubtful (wasn’t even nominated for editing at BAFTA). The only acting award it has a chance at winning is supporting actress, and it’s not going to win much (if anything) in the techies. So…how does it win BP on so little? At least 12 Years is all but guaranteed a screenplay win, has a decent chance at an acting award, and could perhaps pick up a techie or to. (And we need to hear from DGA to confirm if Cuaron is the likely director winner).

    I’m cautiously optimistic for 12 Years a Slave, but I need to see it win PGA before I get more than cautiously optimistic. I will point out that 12 Years has won a whole crapload of BP prizes from critics as well as BP from the Globes and now BFCA. No other movie so far this season has won as many BP citations as 12 Years a Slave. But Gravity’s strength in the directing and editing categories as well as several likely techie wins make it the biggest threat to 12 Years, I still think, not AH.

    The guilds, as always, will give us the full picture.

  • Jason Travis

    For the millionth time:

    12 Years a Slave did NOT underperform in Nominations!

    – 9 nods including ALL Key categories it was expected in. Cinematography and Score snubs do not count as underperforming. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King was expected to WIN Cinematography in 2003- it lost the nod, then won all 11 of it’s nominations.

    – It won Best Picture now at Golden Globes and BFCA.

    – It’s still a Drama, something American Hustle is not marketed as (despite not being funny at all).

    I find it crazy that just LAST YEAR, Argo gets only 7 nods including NO best director and people touted Lincoln, Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook as the movies to beat. Seriously people, have you not learned how the Oscars roll?

    And Ryan- Props to you for your Headline statement today regarding 12 Years: Washington FUCKING Post! Amen.

  • ObamaWins

    Agreef. Robert A and Jason Travis.

  • ObamaWins

    Gravity is this year’s Life of Pi. It will win directing, visual effects, cinematography, sound, sound editing.

  • joe

    Happy gravity wins the most awards tonight.

  • Jerry Grant

    I agree, Robert A. It’s about the PGA at this point.

    But I think the good money’s on 12 Years at the PGA. I just never agreed that AH’s ensemble and nomination showing solidified it as #1. I have thought that Sasha’s (and others’) argument that it is “the new Argo” that “everyone likes” has been wrong, partly because of a misreading of the movie and the _way_ that people like it. It has spawned an overexaggeration of the “big bad American movie that doesn’t deserve to win Best Picture but wins Best Picture.” In fact, it’s not that kind of movie at all. It’s weirder. Lots of people hate it. It’s fun. It doesn’t compare in importance or artistry to this year’s real winner. 12 Years is the important movie, like Schindler’s List, like Return of the King, like No Country, like Hurt Locker.

  • Claudiu Dobre

    Robert, this same exact shit came up last year in the Argo-Lincoln debate: how Argo couldn’t win because it wasn’t winning any other important awards. And then, of course, it started winning Screenplay everywhere (So, yeah, 12 Years is NOT all but guaranteed a Screenplay win) and then everything else. And it didn’t even have a Best Director nomination, which AH does.
    This “what else is it winning” stuff is by far the weakest argument for something not winning Best Picture at the Oscars. If they like it enough for BP, they INEVITABLY will make it so that it somehow does win some other major award as well. It stands to reason.

    I think y’all are being way too optimistic for 12 Years after these two wins – the situation has improved, but not by that much. The only thing that has changed is that we’re all slightly less sure of what’s winning the PGA than before the Globes and whether or not it can actually be 12 Years. But, other than that, these two wins don’t mean jack shit… And it’s still entirely conceivable that Hustle will even sweep the guilds. It’s not even particularly unlikely!
    I think the noms announced earlier today are far more relevant. Something outside the top two in nominations winning BP is so, so rare and twice in a row – it’s probably not happened for 70 years or something… And they’re especially relevant because they could have EASILY NOT snubbed 12 Years in those extra categories, had they really loved it so much.

  • Claudiu Dobre

    Jerry, I honestly have no idea why you keep hanging on to this belief that “artistry” and quality have anything to do with what the Academy awards Best Picture. It’s noble and I admire the passion, but I’ve seen too many folks think like that and be disappointed in the end pretty much every single time over the years.
    I will be quite happy for you (and myself) if 12 Years a Slave does end up winning the big one, but I’ll never delude myself into thinking it was actually about its artistic merits. Just coincidence…
    And No Country was the important movie – not sure what you mean by that, but I don’t think that can be right, not in that year…

  • SallyinChicago

    Where’s the final list of winners? I have the CW, but it’s not on the telly.

  • Jason Travis

    @Claudiu: The difference is that ARGO won Best Picture (Drama) and BFCA Best Picture, the same awards 12 Years a Slave just won. So can’t really see where you’re going, except yes American Hustle won Comedy Picture at the Globes.

    I would understand if 12 Years a Slave was going the Lincoln route, almost winning top award and than losing. But it’s not- it’s winning. Even if it loses PGA and SAG, it’s now competitive for the Oscar. Regardless of the hype. Voters have over a month now to look at the absurdity of American Hustle’s overhaul of undeserved nods (in particular, Christian Bale taking Redford’s slot). But that’s my opinion of course.

    The reality is that this is a wide open race. But I don’t see AH being the Best Picture winner. Also, David O. Russell may get the nominations, but he’s a very VERY Controversial figure. Best Director is going to Cuaron or McQueen. Best Screenplay is probably going to Her. Blanchett and McConaughey/DiCaprio are lead wins. Leto is Supporting Actor. Lawrence is duking it out now with Lupita for Supporting Actress. AH ain’t no way in hell a Best Picture winner.

  • Bob Burns

    Nyong’o did herself the most good, tonight.

    Lubezki is my bottom line this year.

  • Jerry Grant

    “I will be quite happy for you (and myself) if 12 Years a Slave does end up winning the big one, but I’ll never delude myself into thinking it was actually about its artistic merits. Just coincidence…”

    ^This is an interesting philosophy, Claudiu, and I just can’t agree with it. I may not agree with King’s Speech, The Artist, or Argo winning, but I can understand it. And I can understand that it’s not coincidence. And I can understand that they have merit, and the way in which voters see them as having merit. There’s no set of rules to these things, but when a movie “clicks” as “good” and as “a winner,” it does so for a reason, not randomness. So the fun of this is often tracing _the way_ that voters evaluate and decide what is best. But it’s not random, and not coincidence. And 12 Years wouldn’t win because of “coincidence.”

    My claim is that _the way_ that 12 Years is a good and important and award-worthy movie will, among voters, trump _the way_ that American Hustle is regarded as a good and award-worthy movie this year. I happen to agree with the idea that 12 Years should win. But I try not to let that get in the way of my predictions, imperfect as they are. (Though I’ve been happily somewhat strong with my predictions so far–75 nominations correct today, Golden Globes almost entirely correct).

  • Jerry Grant

    Yes to Jason Travis and Robert A. and ObamaWins

  • John C.

    Everything that has happened so far this season leads to the only conclusion: 12YAS is the heavy favorite. I don’t know why, but this is really the only place that has been constantly pushing the “American Hustle is the favorite” narrative. What the hell has AH won? Best Comedy at GG’s? No big surprise. Won’t be a surprise if it wins SAG either, but thats it.

    Obviously PGA will have a huge say… but for now, if 12YAS loses Best Picture… that will be a MASSIVE upset. If 12YAS wins SAG OR PGA, I think its officially over.

  • Robert A.

    And Claudiu, I said “if” American Hustle can’t win original screenplay. I was offering a hypothetical. Her does seem to be giving it competition, so my point is, if AH can’t win screenplay, it’s probably not your BP winner. Obviously AH could still win original screenplay at the Oscars, and I still think it has a good chance of doing so. But it doesn’t have the firm grip on this category I thought it would have.

    On the other hand, I stand by my belief that 12 Years a Slave is all but guaranteed a best adapted screenplay win. Its competition is Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, and WoWS. I don’t see how it loses, frankly. I think a win for 12 Years here is about as obvious as the wins for Leto in supporting and Blanchett in lead actress.

    And Jason, I agree with you about the 12 Years/Lincoln comparisons. One of the most tired arguments is when people say, “12 Years is this year’s Lincoln,” completely overlooking that Lincoln won almost no BP prizes the entire season, while 12 Years leads the pack for BP wins. Doesn’t mean that 12 Years will win BP at the Oscars, but comparing its performance to Lincoln is just kind of silly.

  • Claudiu Dobre

    I knew you wouldn’t get the “coincidence” comment… It was a bit vague, so it’s my fault. I meant coincidence as in “it just happened that they liked the most artistically accomplished movie that year”. I think, given their track record, it’s safe to say that, as a group, their tastes are less than impressive and trustworthy when it comes to deciding which movie will stand the test of time because of its artistic qualities. So why should we assume that when they do get it right it’s because somehow they’re suddenly, for a year or two, less “safe” or “mainstream”, more intelligent and artistic?… Their decision process as a group is obviously based on a number of factors, most of them political and popularity-related, the least of which is artistic worth…

    As for the state of the race:
    1. NOTHING that loses all three SAG, PGA and DGA, is EVER competitive (don’t cite 1995, it was the first SAG year and obviously an anomaly). Can you please tell me which of these 12 Years a Slave is a favorite to win? Maybe PGA, although I can’t really see a strong argument for it – but would that even be enough, when Gravity is almost definitely winning the DGA and Hustle the SAG? Then how is it the frontrunner? And I’ve never denied it was in the game – at least until the guilds announce. I just said it was now the underdog, which is debatable, perhaps, but there’s no real question of it being any kind of a big favorite, like some people seem to think.

    2. Who says it has to go the Lincoln route?! I brought up Lincoln in a different debate, the one about “what else can it win”. There are many ways to lose Best Picture… It can just go the 12 Years a Slave route – winning Globe, BFCA (who are obviously completely irrelevant compared to the guilds – Argo didn’t win last year because of the Globes and BFCA, it won because of the guilds) and then nothing else.

    3. I did happen to mention the number of noms stat – how only 3 movies outside the top 2 in nominations have won Best Picture in the last 31 years, and this happening in consecutive years is pretty much unheard of. Is that not more relevant than two wins with under-500 voter groups? You can’t just keep using Argo as an argument against everything – if anything, Argo pulling off all that weird shit last year makes it FAR LESS LIKELY that anything remotely close to that will happen again this year.

    So no, just winning BP at the Globes and Critics Choice, without winning Director, is sadly not nearly enough to ensure 12 Years will even stay in the race all the way to the end, let alone ever manage to become any kind of a significant favorite (unless it sweeps the guilds, which I’d love, but won’t happen).

  • Claudiu Dobre

    And Robert – you’re probably right about Screenplay. I forgot it had such weak competition. Not to say it CAN’T lose (when they want to shut you out, they shut you out), but it’s looking very good.

  • JP

    Argo didn’t underperform quantitatively. Actually it overperformed. It was expected to get Picture, Director, Writing, Editing, Score and Alan Arkin. It was snubbed in Director but got the two sound nominations that virtually nobody was predicting. 12 Years a Slave didn’t get in a single category this way. It’s the opposite: it was snubbed in categories the vast majority was predicting it would get nominated.

    Remember: Argo was not a period film that was supposed to score 11-12 nominations. 12 Years a Slave is this kind of film.

  • WW

    I imagine ”12 Years a Slave” will get a big boost at the BAFTAs, where it could sweep. With all the British talent involved, like London-born Steve McQueen, it’s sure to be a hometown favorite. Chiwetel Ejiofor, who’s also London-born, and Michael Fassbender could easily win because their toughest Academy Award competition didn’t even get BAFTA nods: Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto.

    ”Philomena” probably would get Best British Film. The BAFTAs are given out Feb. 16, just about a week before the Oscar balloting ends.

  • Zach

    It’s going to be another spread-out year, which is befitting the quality and diversity of the nominees. I don’t understand how 12 Years a Slave can win a Best Picture award but its lead actor loses, given how central Ejiofor is to the film’s resonance. But that would be in a normal year. Everyone knew McConaughey was coming this year (Leo too). The physical changes he underwent still gravely noticeable. Dallas Buyers Club is not Blue Jasmine, a one-woman show with enough support to get a second acting nod, but a Best Picture, Screenplay, and Editing nominee. McConaughey wins SAG and Oscar, and Ejiofor has to settle for BAFTA. It’s just weird that the Best Picture will actually go to the film they feel they HAVE to reward rather than the one they necessarily like the most.

    And Lupita wins. But if Her wins screenplay, Hustle would go home empty-handed. And everyone likes Her. Hustle might have to settle for a random Production Design win?? Like last year when Lincoln beat Anna Karenina because, on paper, it was an easy switch

  • Chris

    Just wait for the guilds. But I have a feeling even those won’t help. Except SAG will clear up Best Supporting Actress.

    However , the academy will look to award Hustle somewhere and Supporting actress is the only category it can easily win regardless of SAG.

  • Jason Travis

    Best Picture Winners that had a Central Lead losing/not nominated, that still won:

    Dances with Wolves (1990)
    Unforgiven (1992)
    Schindler’s List (1993)
    Braveheart (1995)
    The English Patient (1996)
    Titanic (1997)
    A Beautiful Mind (2001)
    Chicago (2002)
    The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
    Crash (2005)
    The Departed (2006)
    Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
    The Hurt Locker (2009)
    Argo (2012)

    Ejiofor not winning Best Actor doesn’t mean beans for 12 Years a Slave’s chances.

    What’s REALLY crazy- is had 12 Years lost the Globe/BFCA, we’d hear “Told you it wasn’t a favorite.” Now its WINNING those, and still the same arguments.

    Lupita’s winning BFCA is a small triumph; it will be better if she wins SAG. Still, even if Lawrence prevails at SAG and BAFTA, the Oscars are more open to upsets in the supporting races. To win a back to back award is no easy task. But Lawrence benefits from being in a Best Picture frontrunner, easily the strongest to win an acting award from that movie, and the It girl of Hollywood. SAG is Saturday. Then we wait for BAFTA, and then the Oscars aren’t until March 2nd. Time will tell.

  • Buford T Justice

    They are crazy for 12 YAS over here in the UK …IT WILL SWEEP BAFTA

    However , the smoking gun for me is BALE ( 100-1 at the bookies )being nominated ; it is the ”canary in the coalmine ” …the fact that they could nominate him over much superior competition is CLEARLY indicitive of the love for A H …I wish it wasn’t so , but it is ….BALE has torpedoed 12 YAS and I’m jumping ship

    The win tonight for 12 YAS keeps it afloat TEMPORARILY, but it’s a doomed sinking ship

  • Zach

    Lupita is the new it girl though. That cape. And now this speech. She wants it; they all want it for her. JLaw just won and won’t be the least bit upset. SAG should have gone gaga for Hustle, but then Silver Linings or Lincoln should have beaten Argo at SAG last year. Instead it has become another Best Picture award. And the SAG nominations — and final ballots — come in so early before voters have a chance to see the late releases. JLaw is the only actor nominated from Hustle, this for a film that accomplished the rare feat of 4 acting nominations in all 4 categories. It’s Silver Linings all over again. Except Slave doesn’t need Ejiofor to win the big prize. Dallas Buyers’ shocking Ensemble nomination means 2 acting awards.

    Plus Slave is so heavy-hitting. My votes would actually go to JLaw and probably Ejiofor, but when they play the clips, Nyong’o looks so dramatic next to JLaw, whereas Ejiofor isn’t the one being raped and whipped. And then you see McConaughey and all that weight loss, and how thin he still looks now. This has an Oscar win written all over it, for a big star finally taking the dramatic plunge, like Erin Brockovich and The Blind Side.

    To me it seems iffy to give Best Picture to Slave and not award Ejiofor not because it’s unprecedented but because he’s the commanding lead of the movie. But both actors from Slave don’t have to win for the film to take Best Picture, probably just one.

  • Zach

    And Cuaron can probably win Director over McQueen. Expect a Picture-Director split if Cuaron wins the DGA, because it would be a big deal for Gravity to top both Slave and Hustle for Best Picture. The clout of Sandy and Clooney can help him get that award where a less popular team would fail. The respect for the artistry, a la Pi last year. I only wonder why this kind of spreading around of the awards didn’t happen when The King’s Speech swept. Nolan was so undeservedly snubbed for Inception. Black Swan and The Social Network were just too downbeat, too pessimistic, too critical of society, I suppose. 12YAS is stark and unsentimental, but not without a silver lining. The Wolf of Wall Street is the one that’s too dark, too polarizing for the win.

    I don’t think this is like last year, where the Academy will feel the need to throw its Best Picture extra wins that it doesn’t need or deserve. Slave will be that rare Best Picture that they feel obligated to award despite not really loving. But they won’t overdo it because they don’t feel like they have to. A critically acclaimed film about American slavery need not win Editing or even every acting category over another important film about AIDS.

    The one political decision is how to reward Hustle, and it may have to be in Production Design if they are deadset on giving Her screenplay and Lupita supporting. But if Chiwetel wins the SAG, then they may just be willing to give JLaw the Oscar again, but I doubt it, and I now doubt Chiwetel wins anything but the BAFTA.

  • David

    Go Aussies!! yay for Cate and Catherine Martin’s costume design for Gatsby!! For Cate, I say just give her the Oscar now!!

  • ObamaWins

    “The win tonight for 12 YAS keeps it afloat TEMPORARILY, but it’s a doomed sinking ship”
    When it wins PGA, and possibly SAG tomorrow night, maybe you will change your mind.

  • Akumax

    I start to think it could be like that year Cabaret won 8 Oscars but not Best Picture, The Godfather won BP.
    Gravity, in my opinion, could really win: Best Director, Best VFX, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Score, Best Sound (both category) for a total of 7.

    American Hustle can win BP but then? I don’t think it can win a lot more… not even best screenplay against Her. J Law? ANd the film has not a nom for makeup&hair… costume maybe but that’s all. For a total of 2 or 3 Oscars…

    12 years a slave can win BP but then? Lupita Nyong’o and screenplay, nothing else… I actually think the film can win only best screenplay and best picture, total of 2.

  • julian the emperor

    Trust me, in addition to winning this (as I predicted) 12 Years will take the PGA and the BAFTA.

    If AH manages to take SAG ensemble and Gravity takes DGA we still have quite a race on our hands.

    If AH takes PGA I think that would make it the frontrunner, if 12 Years, on the other hand, takes SAG in addition to PGA the race is almost over.

    Gravity taking DGA is only indicative of this being a very obvious example of a split year between director and picture. I know Sasha says you should never predict a split, but this year it would be foolish not to. Even seasoned prognosticators seem to have given up on the idea of predicting the same film winning bd and bp almost per reflex.

  • Bob Burns

    PGA can surprise…. I still remember the shock when Moulin Rouge won….and Little Miss Sunshine, but I’ll be shocked if AH loses PGA.

    My guess is that AH wins PGA and that the BP race becomes boring. If Gravity or 12 Years wins we’re wide open, which would be fun.

  • Ra S.

    Was there a film that has won nothing else but Best Picture?

    If so, then either 12 Years or American Hustle could be that.

  • edkargir

    Grand Hotel received only 1nomination best picture and won. It will not happen again.

  • Zooey

    Come on, don’t pretend that 12 Years A Slave isn’t a contender in many categories. Chiwetel isn’t out of the race. He could very well win SAG and BAFTA seems to be a lock.Lupita is extremely competitive. Screenplay is a near-lock. And then you have a possibility in Production Design. And of course NYFCC winner Steve McQueen could win the DGA. It’s not a sure thing that Cuaron will take the DGA. So 12 Years A Slave could win more than just three.

    And then again, Gravity has a few BIG holes in its narrative. It’s 3D, sci-fi. It has no writing nomination and how many films have won without one? I can think of Titanic, but was a different story. Even Gladiator got a nod. And Gravity lacks a SAG nod in ensemble. Only one film has ever won without one – Braveheart.

  • murtaza

    Well BFCA comedy actor/actress doesn’t mean a shit..

  • Thomas

    Chiwetel Ejiofor, Lupita Nyong’o and Michael Fassbender must win the Oscar of performances because they are the best of 2013.

  • Bob Burns

    check out Chiwetel in Kinky Boots (the film). I believe anyone familiar with him from that role would be inclined to vote for him for 12 Years.

  • Pete

    I’m learning towards there being no split between picture and director. If AG takes PGA and SAG, then Cuaron’s grip on director slips pretty hard. Argo, Artist, and King’s Speech demonstrated the “me too” quality of the guilds.

    I just don’t see AH winning picture but not director.

  • richard crawford

    I saw Sartre twice in Paris. “Jean Paul”, I said…”Are we not M E N ?
    We are D E V O…”

  • Even seasoned prognosticators seem to have given up on the idea of predicting the same film winning bd and bp almost per reflex.

    And with the exception of last year due to the date change chaos, these seasoned prognosticators have been wrong in their split predictions, time and time again. Avatar/Cameron and Hurt Locker/Bigelow. King’s Speech/Hooper and Social Network/Fincher. Million Dollar Baby/Eastwood vs. Aviator/Marty. Etc.

  • SallyinChicago

    Are there video clips somewhere?

  • Tero Heikkinen

    It’s more probable that split will happen and should be expected. Cuarón/12 Years I see happening now, but Gravity would be a pleasant no split winner. 12 Years is sort of safe Academy choice, Gravity would be genre-wise more interesting, AH would be Crash Part Deux.

    Just watched the BFCA show and I want to see Lupita and Cate win (and they just may), because they are deserving and would give great speeches, too. Men could go differently, DBC may not get both, so Leto-DiCaprio is possible. McConaughey-NOT Leto would be interesting.

  • MWeyer

    Adams getting the award in comedy might help her chances out. I know, still Blanchett’s race to lose but if ‘Hustle” gains more momentum, Adams might be the likely of the four actors to win (again, the fact she’s the only one in her category without an Oscar already is going to win some sympathy votes) can play in her favor.

  • I agree with Thomas “Chiwetel Ejiofor, Lupita Nyong’o and Michael Fassbender must win the Oscar of performances because they are the best of 2013.”

    12YAS is still going strong, and these actors will be rewarded.

  • Buford T Justice

    The ARGO -AMERICAN HUSTLE comparison is largely correct

    Both were/are coming from behind to challenge the status of the front runner LINCOLN/12 YAS…both had momentum …both were default choices ….meaning that the frontrunners had failed to satify and impress the voters …both were seen as the least objectionable , a movie for consensus , the least devisive

    12 YAS is stronger than LINCOLN was , but American Hustle is stronger than Argo was , with 4 acting noms 9 (only one has a real chance of winning )

    Both ARGO and AH capture the 1970’s nostalgia well with the music , clothes and big hair , a decade that most Academy voters lived through and probably have fond memories of the sweet bird of youth

    The main difference is that this year it is a three horse race where GRAVITY could sneak a victory

  • Reichdome back with AVENGEANCE

    Well..Well.. in a echo of the farcical manner in which the oscar noms were deligated…the self important self righteous overbloated critics choice awards have handed down a furfy of a result for the best pic winner. Only 3 critics choice awards for 12 years a slave…aND Gravity well done to it well deerved for the director Mr. Cuaron. He a genius for his vision ..and clearly both oscar and the critics choice are all in one voice behind Gravity.

    12 years is and deserves to have a battle royale on its hands in a red hot oscar contest.

    12 years is overrated cos of the categories it has missed out on in the oscaers it is without doubt i sorry to say this years most overhyped film.

    The fact that Gravity and American Hustle lead the nominations combines with Cuaron’s consistent best director win…he wins the DGA and well in theory if oscar new the notion of consistency in decision making from guilds right through to their main awards, then history says the winner of the upcoming DGA awards is more important for chances of that film for best picture…than say….the winner of the PGA awards.

    Furthermore the fact that Gravity won the most awards in the critics choice..bodes a greater chance for oscar to finally break the 50 foot thick ice to recognize a science genre based film 6 critics choice awards.

    I foresee big problems for 12 yrs a slave…getting more loive from critics than awards season in truth…look at the inconsistency of cluster of awards it has won.

    Furthermore if OScar are fairdingkom in tuning in to a globalized audience than surely Gravity should win. Taking into account the context of American Hustle with with its consistent acting wins is a very dangerous contender…a film that really cannot be flawed bout a rarer even than what 12 years covers…ther enot been a film of te quality of American Hustle i hate to say it but films bout slavery pfftt..they come up with another one soon.

    American Hustle is a revival of Hollywoods 1970’s era but with innovative approach to story telling auithenticity rivalled by precise writing and meticulous detailing…indeed rare. But Gravity is a rarer event film..and i hope it wins as it will expose the folly of the bfca for what it is along with the critics cirlces farce farce FARCE!

    And the public are sick and tired of it. Even if myt preferred film won, in critics choice/ circles etc, fact of matter is i dont care…let drop repoirting Sasha over the pointless critics choice merry go round…and focus on the guilds/ BAFTA and oscar…

    It is oscar that will crash back down to earth with a mother of all thuds that wil shatter it dwindling credibiltiy in the eyes of a public audienc eit betrayed time and time again most years after year…by not embracing a truly most rarest of event films.the groundbreaking masterpiece nobody can fualt that is GRAVITY..i look forward to seeing oscar snub it not…if they knew what good for them they not pay lip service anymore to critics groups self righteous importance of trash

  • keifer

    I actually think their major choices will reflect the Oscars on March 2.

    Best Makeup – none of the films the Critics choice listed are Oscar nominated, but the Oscar will undoubtedly go to “Dallas Buyer’s Club” because of its Best Picture nomination.

    Other than that, I think they’ve basically nailed every category to win at the Oscars.

  • Reichdome back with AVENGEANCE

    If they do Keifer they will put off more audience viewers than ever and pple will left to wonder “why oh why do i bother having faiht my preferred film will win” year after year…disenchantment is HUUUGE esp if either GRavity or Hustle do not win you watch…will oscar risk that? only when they reach panic stage like they are this year snubbing past african american wrtiers, producers, actors all working together in one film will they declare “this is overdue make hisotry day” give us a break from your b.s oscar

  • julian the emperor

    I’m not sure many Americans would agree with you, Tero, about 12 YAS being the safe choice for bp. I see your point, and in a formal sense I agree with you. But there is more to a discussion about what constitutes a safe choice than pure aesthetics.

    Gravity would be a bold choice indeed in many ways, 12 YAS mostly in a political/cultural/sociological context.
    AH? I think it’s better than Crash, mostly because it dares to be fun (which is fine with me, I just don’t think it makes it an obvious Oscar winner).

    But, ultimately, I feel pretty confident that 12YAS is going to win the big one, though I find myself rooting just a bit for Gravity (12YAS still sight unseen, mind you, it premieres over here on the 20th of february…)

  • Kane

    I generally like Crash. But American Hustle is way better. It’s been pretty easy to hate on David O. Russell films lately after he was seen as largely unrewarded for his earlier work. That’s how you know, between this year and last, his films are serious threats for best picture. Russell is another Tom Hooper (not in style) but every time a movie comes out the knives will be at the ready. This comes from someone who places American Hustle maybe 5th on the BP list. Go 12 Years!

  • JPNS Viewer

    Lupita Nyong’o gives a heartfelt acceptance speech at the Critics Choice. She looks genuinely excited to receive the honor as well. Good for her.
    (Those who take care of her wardrobe gets Kudos from me as well. She looks gorgeous both in this event and at Golden Globes.)

    Cate Blanchett, as expected, has finally garnered another trophy. Such a beautiful speech with no bull yet nonetheless charming. (I’ll be very glad if either Cate or Amy garners the Oscar statuette this year. But it looks like Cate is about to be going all the way upon stage.)

    And I also fancy the astronaut’s acceptance speech. She’s funny without coming off as being pretentious.
    “I’m an action hero.” LOL. Good one, Sandra.

  • Gravity is an action movie? I had no idea.

  • JPNS Viewer

    “Those who take care of her wardrobe gets some Kudos from me as well.”

    I meant to say, get, not gets.

    And by the way, this is probably a high time for them — the Academy members/voters — to give Dave O. Russell what he’s been, I suppose, longing for. [Don’t throw bricks, thanks]

  • JPNS Viewer


    That’s why the joke worked so well. : )

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Julian, Tero,

    I agree 12 YEARS is a “safe” choice. Whatever that means. Yes beyond aesthetics (which is everything to me because it’s cinema, well written or not it’s in the execution where whatever significance is achieved or not). In fact any other choice they make (e.g. HUSTLE, GRAVITY) but 12 YEARS would surely be accompanied with backlash. Now, it is safe, but it apparently is the right choice (or one of the right choices). I myself didn’t embrace it, but it has universal critical acclaim. So who’d to say they are only rewarding it because it’s “important”? It’s already been acknowledge by most contemporaries as a great movie. Whether it wins or not. Whether it “ought” to win or not. And I am a real American.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    I too like AMERICAN HUSTLE more than any Best Picture winner since THE HURT LOCKER.

  • Lupita! Vogue DID just choose her as their “It” girl! Yes, they did! Flawless speech. She cried. I cried. Oprah cried. Oprah stood up and applauded! A standing O from Lady O! Not easy to get.

    Lupita’s performance was grade A++++ and PLUS she was playing a woman, an unsung, real, tragic woman who actually lived. Some one wrote to me this morning on my blog, “What happens to Patsie? Once Solomon goes…”? Truth is we don’t know. We’ll never know. She could either keel over in the fields, like the poor slave we saw did at the end of the film, or she being so suicidal as shown, maybe she did the deed herself that she asked Solomon to do.

    But she’s Master Epps favorite…so he’ll keep her around. And then the Civil War comes. She could runaway. She was feisty enough.

    We’ll never know. BUt she lives on through Lupita’s great interpretation of her frightening life…

    And Fox Searchlight stepped up to the plate and created two new TV ads for “Slave”, One featured Chiwetel and Lupita with their names spelled out and correctly pronounced by the announcer in Voice Over, and a second using Martin Luther King’s great speeches as the audio over the great visuals of the movie. It was VERY powerful.

    Lupita could really turn it all around in her category. She could go on to win everything. She’s certainly showing the viewers everywhere she goes that she has the right stuff.

    JLaw is SOOO last year.

  • Claudiu Dobre

    ““The win tonight for 12 YAS keeps it afloat TEMPORARILY, but it’s a doomed sinking ship”
    When it wins PGA, and possibly SAG tomorrow night, maybe you will change your mind.”

    “When” that happens we will ALL immediately change our minds. But right now it’s not a question of “when”, but of “if”. What will YOU do “when” AH wins those instead? Will you not change YOUR mind? It’s easy to make unsubstantiated “threats” this way…

    “I start to think it could be like that year Cabaret won 8 Oscars but not Best Picture”

    That’s a very inspired comparison! Hadn’t thought of that.

    “I just don’t see AH winning picture but not director.”

    And I, honestly, can’t picture Russell winning either the DGA or the Oscar, when they have both Cuaron and McQueen who are so much easier to award in that category, for various reasons. Doesn’t mean it’s not winning Best Picture, though – a split is overdue.

    “The main difference is that this year it is a three horse race where GRAVITY could sneak a victory”

    That’s only partially true, if at all; last year there was Life of Pi, which, aside from losing Director to Affleck almost everywhere (but Ang Lee still being the favorite for the Oscar, which I correctly predicted and won bets on, because Affleck wasn’t nominated), was about the same as Gravity is now (perhaps not as hailed, though) – it was likely winning Director, it wasn’t SAG nominated (no great ensemble) and was winning a lot of technical awards. So yeah, while definitely not identical, the situations are actually very similar. If last year was any kind of a race (which it probably wasn’t), then it definitely wasn’t just Argo vs. Lincoln. And if Life of Pi in fact had 0 chances last year, like you’re saying, then so does Gravity this year, because its main competitors are statistically even stronger than Argo (who had no Director nomination). It’s not that easy to tell which is the case, though…

    “And with the exception of last year due to the date change chaos, these seasoned prognosticators have been wrong in their split predictions, time and time again. Avatar/Cameron and Hurt Locker/Bigelow. King’s Speech/Hooper and Social Network/Fincher. Million Dollar Baby/Eastwood vs. Aviator/Marty. Etc.”

    What you’re implying, roughly, is that there’s a very good chance that whatever wins the DGA will also win the PGA and, very likely, also the SAG Ensemble. Another sweep – could this year really get that boring as well?

    “I generally like Crash.”

    Me too. 🙂

  • Bryce,

    I liked at least 5 nominees this year better than the last 3 Best Picture winners.

    12 Years A Slave
    American Hustle
    The Wolf Of Wall Street

    So the Academy has 5 chances to improve their winners’ circle this year!

  • Only 8 of the last 23 Best Picture winners (since 1990) were in my top 5 of the year:

    No Country For Old Men
    The Departed
    Slumdog Millionaire
    Million Dollar Baby
    LOTR: The Return Of The King
    Schindler’s List
    The Silence Of The Lambs

    But 17 of them made my top 10, so that’s worth noting. The other movies that made my 10 were:

    The Artist
    The Hurt Locker
    American Beauty
    Forrest Gump
    Dances With Wolves

  • Crash, Chicago and The King’s Speech all failed to crack my top 20, so its safe to say I’d consider those to be the 3 weakest Best Picture winners since 1990, followed closely by A Beautiful Mind (#18 on my list). The English Patient was my #12 film, so not exactly “weak”, but if you wanted a 5th weakest to make that 5 I’d go with that one. The Silence Of The Lambs is the only film since 1990 to get my top spot, with the next closest being Schindler’s List, which was #2 for me that year.

    Best Picture Winners Since 1990 in order from Strongest to Weakest (based solely on their rankings on my annual lists):

    1. The Silence Of The Lambs
    2. Schindler’s List
    3. Unforgiven
    4. No Country For Old Men
    5. The Departed
    6. Million Dollar Baby
    7. Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    8. Slumdog Millionaire
    9. Braveheart
    10. The Hurt Locker
    11. Titanic
    12. The Artist
    13. Gladiator
    14. American Beauty
    15. Dances With Wolves
    16. Forrest Gump
    17. Argo
    18. Shakespeare In Love
    19. The English Patient
    20. A Beautiful Mind
    21. The King’s Speech
    22. Chicago
    23. Crash

  • Chris

    2 things:

    1: Everyone keeps bringing up McConaughey and Leto not getting BAFTA Nominations. Did Dallas Buyers Club actually play in England? If not it would be rather difficult for them to score noms.

    2: I think there is one scenario that no one is really talking about that if happened this weekend would probably seal the race for one film. Most of us are in agreement that Cuaron is going to win DGA. If Gravity were to win PGA as well I think the Oscar race would be all but over.

    12 Years is certainly still very much one of the two favorites. If it loses both PGA and SAG though I think it very possibly could become “this year’s Lincoln”.

  • If 12 Years A Slave, Her or The Wolf Of Wall Street won somehow, they would instantly be in the top 7 of that list above. If Hustle or Gravity wins they’d still be in the top 10. To me whoever wins its gonna be a really strong Best Picture winner. One of the top 10 strongest of the last 25 years.

  • Also: take note how the 3 strongest on that list were all CONSECUTIVE winners. 1991-93 surely was a golden moment in Oscar history.

  • It almost seemed like they had taste for a minute there!

  • steve50

    I liked at least 5 nominees this year better than the last 3 Best Picture winners.

    See you and raise you, Chris – I think the entire slate this year is better than the last three winners.

    Outstanding year.

  • Jerry Grant

    I actually liked last year more than this year (my top 3–Lincoln, Amour, Zero Dark Thirty–are a stronger batch than this year’s top 3–All Is Lost, 12 Years a Slave, Wolf of Wall Street).

    And I like American Hustle about as much as Argo. Both very positive good solid movies in my mind. Argo is a more “perfect” movie (I have agreed with Sasha on that word as describing Argo). But American Hustle actually has people that are fascinating, performances that are astonishing. I am likely to re-watch AH far more than I re-watch Argo. Both are ending up being my #7 or so of that year. Solid enough to make in the top ten, memorable, and lovable. AH fell short of masterpiece when it got a little too long and messy; Argo was never going to be a masterpiece, just a really good movie.

  • Jerry Grant

    Considering only fictional films. This year’s _actual_ #1 is The Act of Killing, which is as good as anything.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Chris, fun. I don’t remember how each did on my lists (a few I didn’t include at all) so I’m just doing a straight-up ranking of the last 23 Best Pic winners.


    7. TITANIC

    Liked a lot


    Liked Ok

    16. ARGO

    Didn’t like, hated, didn’t care for, etc

    20. THE ARTIST
    22. CRASH
    23. CHICAGO

  • The win tonight for 12 YAS keeps it afloat TEMPORARILY, but it’s a doomed sinking ship

    Alright, Buford T Jutice, you got my attention.

    I’m now wondering how closely you’re acquainted with that suspicious concern-troll benny tarleton — the guy who was passively-aggessively undermining 12 Years a Slave for weeks before we called him out on his not-so-hidden agenda. Has anyone ever seen the two of you in the same room together?

  • steve50

    Bryce and Chris Price – if you guys want a real challenge, try the BP ranking set-up on Erik Lundegaard’s site. I did it last year and my results must be archived in there somewhere.

    Starts out easy, then gets tough.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Steve, challenge accepted!

  • steve50

    Good! I just found my list on there. Maybe tomorrow I’ll open a forum thread and post it there (so we don’t hijack the show on this thread)

  • austin111

    12 Years a Slave should win if only to make up for the shameful omission of Fruitvale Station, an incredible story for our times. Both films were and are eloquent statements of the dreadful tragedy of slavery and the incredible damage that it left in it’s wake. One can’t help but meditate on the wounds inflicted on our country that have yet to heal and seem doomed to stay with us forever. Both are art and have been torn from the fabric of our republic.

  • austin111

    American Hustle, as likeable as it may be, is only a mere entertainment. Nothing more, really. Well acted. Not much more. It will generally be forgotten down the road, just as other choices by AMPAS have.

  • Claudiu Dobre

    Steve, that is way too hard… I have a clear and uniform rating system for all movies I watch and I still think I’d have a super-hard time doing that. 🙂


    “I think there is one scenario that no one is really talking about that if happened this weekend would probably seal the race for one film. Most of us are in agreement that Cuaron is going to win DGA. If Gravity were to win PGA as well I think the Oscar race would be all but over.”

    Mostly correct, but I would note that the PGA+DGA combination has lost Best Picture before – 3 times out of 18, actually, which is 16.6% of the time: Brokeback Mountain, Saving Private Ryan, Apollo 13 – and while BBM and A13 had been snubbed by the Academy for Editing and Director, respectively, Saving Private Ryan had no such problems and still lost to the SAG winner. So, overall, not a particularly safe percentage to be betting against – unless we’ve just decided 100% that whatever wins the PGA in any given year (since the voting procedure is the same as for the Oscars) will ALWAYS win Best Picture, which, however, I find to be a little premature, given the still small sample size, even though I do expect it to be fully confirmed in the future.

    And especially not if Gravity is the PGA+DGA winner, because that one does seem like an absolutely ideal candidate to become the 4th exception – no Screenplay nomination, non-Academy friendly genre, no ensemble and respective SAG nomination, no major Best Picture wins pre-guilds… That seems like tons of reasons for doubt to me. I’d say the race is anything but over in your scenario, no matter whether AH or 12YAS wins the SAG Ensemble. And if AH wins SAG Ensemble, I honestly would still see it as the favorite, even against a PGA&DGA-winning Gravity, for all the reasons stated above. Honestly, maybe even 12 Years…

    In addition – I don’t think it’s all that clear that Cuaron is winning the DGA. People have already pointed out the “out of nowhere” Hooper win in 2011 and I’m sure there are other examples (too lazy to research it right now). Cuaron is the favorite based on what we know now, yes, but that’s about it. He’s not a lock by any means.

    Actually, DGA+SAG is the strongest two-guild combination, mathematically speaking – there is only one exception out of 8 instances, for 12.5%: Apollo 13. Every other movie to win the SAG Ensemble and DGA also won the Oscar for Best Picture that year. PGA+SAG is a bit less accurate, with 28.5% exceptions, 2/9 – Apollo 13 and Little Miss Sunshine; it must be noted, however, that both of these movies failed to obtain a Best Director Oscar nomination. Factor that in and it’s clear that SAG+DGA (with no Oscar snubs) would be the strongest combination; but PGA+SAG is much more likely to happen this year and, if either AH or 12YAS win both of those, they (and especially AH, because it’s also in the top 2 for Oscar nominations), not having been snubbed for anything, will be in the same position as The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, The Return of the King, Chicago and American Beauty (those six, and ONLY those six), which were all complete and utter locks for Best Picture (even if, perhaps, some people decided to foolishly ignore the stats instead) and all, of course, won. In that case, a Cuaron win at the DGA would be nothing more than a clear sign of a split. And yes, if 12 Years loses both the PGA and SAG (to American Hustle), it’s done – but that’s not really big news to anyone…

    Of course, by the time the DGA announces, we’ll already know what movie has won the other two, so the only truly relevant stat would be the 2-vs-1 guild stat, with all involved being Best Picture nominees. That one goes like this: PGA+DGA vs. SAG: 3-2; PGA+SAG vs. DGA: 0-1; DGA+SAG vs PGA: 0-0 (never happened). So, as you can see, SURPRISINGLY UNCLEAR… The obvious conclusion to be drawn here is that 2/3 guild wins, while a good sign, are most certainly NOWHERE NEAR enough to win Best Picture, unless other factors (read: Oscar snubs) are involved. And since AH and 12YAS have no such problems and Gravity isn’t getting more than 2/3 and does – see above -, the only thing that is clear right now is that Gravity can NEVER be dubbed the clear favorite (or any kind of favorite, really) at any point during this race, as long as one of its two main rivals wins the SAG Ensemble award, which seems like a given.

  • Claudiu Dobre

    OK, Bryce, I’ll do that one too (but changing the lower category definitions a bit). Ordered alphabetically within each category:

    Loved – most of them, because this includes my favorite decade for BP winners:


    Liked a lot:


    Liked OK:


    Didn’t like too much:


    Didn’t care for at all:


  • Karen

    There is another factor involving 12YAS that I was thinking & wondering about. There have been references that Academy voters were hesitant in viewing the film, hence the lower than expected number of nominations. It could happen that in the 6 week period, some of these folks decide to actually break down & see the film. Depending on their responses, it could affect the race.

  • Karen

    Sorry I hit send before checking spelling &didn’t finish post.

    As far as the guilds go, it probably has been a rare scenario that there are this many good films in competition. I would not be surprised if there is an unexpected win here. It would definitely make the race all that more exciting. If its AH for everything, then its pretty much game over.

  • Claudiu Dobre

    Good point, Karen.

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