Pic taken from Boiseweekly
The fate of Best Picture is now in the hands of the PGA. As we barrel towards the final deadline for Oscar ballots, there are still three films that are vying for the big prize. Like most years in the era of preferential ballot, all eyes are on the Producers Guild. The Producers Guild use the preferential ballot with ten slots. The Academy will use the preferential ballot with nine slots. The SAG and the DGA go with a weighted ballot and five slots.
Since 2009, no film has won the Producers Guild and not won the Oscar for Best Picture. For that matter, no film has won the DGA and not won Best Picture. Since Oscar expanded its slate to more than five, and pushed their date back a month, there is no real difference between the big guilds and the Academy. The BAFTA is reliable, too, but only in so much as there are so many British voters in the Academy now their choices blend together.
What you see now with Best Picture is a “generally favorable film” winning. A passion vote does not really pay off with a preferential ballot. Broad support works better. Divisive films do not have a chance and split votes between Picture and Director nearly impossible.
Says Marshall Flores:
A split vote is defined as when the chances of winning for multiple candidates are reduced because they’re so similar to each other and, as a result, get reduced support from their backers. This gives an opportunity for the contender who is different to play spoiler and win without a majority of the votes. The potential for vote splitting is greatly reduced under instant-runoff voting, because the winner by construction must have broad support from the majority of voters, i.e. it must be the consensus choice.
Up until now, the biggest voting block we’ve seen with critics would be the Southeastern Film Critics and the Critics Choice – both of them have memberships larger than the roughly 100 to 150 voters in the other groups. But the Producers Guild, with its preferential ballot and its 4,500 membership means that you will see the broad consensus unlike anything you’ve ever seen.
The three films up for the win are: American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. It is telling that Alfonso Cuaron and not Steve McQueen has been picking up director. If you’re going to reward either films shouldn’t their director correspond with picture? No, says the narrative that was put in place early on by the pundits. They were predicting a split and I suspect that the voters up to now have also reflected that early prediction.
Even if Alfonso Cuaron wins the Directors Guild, that doesn’t guarantee there will be a split at the Oscars, or that Cuaron and Gravity will take the Picture/Director prize. Best Picture right now seems to be a big fat question mark, as it was on the eve of the Producers Guild last year. This year reminds me a lot of 2009, when Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker won the PGA and the DGA just after Avatar won the Globe. There were some, including Movie City News’ David Poland, who still believed there would be a split at the Oscars and that Avatar would take Best Picture and Bigelow would take Best Director. Similarly, some thought Martin Scorsese would win Director for Hugo while The Artist won Best Picture. Nope, said the big guilds, both will win the PGA, the DGA and eventually the Oscar.
Therefore, it is surprising to me that people are so confidently predicting a split.
The Producers Guild will announce Sunday night. By then, we will have already known the results of the SAG ensemble award. Sometimes they align, as they did last year when Argo beat Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln for ensemble. Or in 2011, when The Help beat The Artist. But the Producers Guild is where to look to find out what will win Oscar’s Best Picture and that’s because of the preferential ballot.
Gold Derby’s experts are predicting Gravity to win. But I don’t think it will. I think it’s down to American Hustle versus 12 Years a Slave. Since I still think 12 Years a Slave is going to win Best Picture I have no choice but to predict it to win the PGA. This, because it will have many number one votes and if it isn’t number 1 it will be number 2. That would also fit with Hustle but I suspect Gravity is a #1 film if it’s anything. I could be totally wrong. What are you predicting?
“Dustin – agreed. It is not a distant possibility.”
Except that it’s not…
I think winning the PGA would probably seal the deal for American Hustle’s victory at the Oscars and it would almost do so for 12 Years a Slave. If Gravity wins, who knows (although at the very least it will make the Best Picture race a true 3 horse situation instead of being American Hustle v. 12YAS).
Dustin – agreed. It is not a distant possibility.
Give me those apples right now.
What time does PGA gets announced tomorrow? (EST)
All three films cancel each other out and the REAL best picture of the year The Wolf of Wall Street wins Best Picture and Best Director. How ya like dem apples?
Gravity was not going to be nominated for ensemble with only two people in the cast. That’s why it did not get an ensemble nomination.
I expect AH to win SAG ensemble as its an actors movie and comedies have won that award against some very good dramatic ensembles. See Full Monty and Little Miss Sunshine.
I would be very surprised if a film other then American Hustle or Gravity won PGA. I think Gravity is also the most likely film to win DGA.
phantom, let’s just ignore each other. k thx bye
Gravity isn’t nominated for Best Ensemble because it’s a One-Woman show with George Clooney coming in for a drink- literally. The idea that Best Ensemble = Best Picture is ludicrous! Best Ensemble does not always equate Best Picture, as we have seen in the past.
The race is far from over, and I can’t wait to see the jaws drop on March 2nd.
I don’t understand the logic that because there hasn’t been a DGA/Oscar split since the institution of the preferential ballot, it simply can’t happen. We’ve only had preferential ballot since 2009, hardly long enough to make grand statements about what can or can’t happen. A split was uncommon before, so it /will/ still be uncommon, but the conditions are aligning perfectly for a split to occur. Cuaron seems unstoppable at this point, but at the same time Gravity doesn’t have the same momentum overall. I feel like Cuaron takes DGA, 12 Years get PGA, and at the Oscars we have a 12 Year/Cuaron split. It makes perfect sense.
“The last and only time two splits in a row happened during the DGA era (when the DGA has been using the same calendar as Oscar) was 1951-1952, 60 years ago. So no, it isn’t uncommon – it’s *more* than uncommon.”
Last year split esentially doesn’t count. It was an anomaly due to the Academy having closed the nomination process before DGA nominees were announced. Had Affleck being nominated he would have won, there’s no doubt about it.
What it is in fact truly uncommon is that only 2 of the 5 oscar best director nominees had a DGA nod.
Yeah, I don’t, I’ll admit it. I mean, it has its good parts (interesting little details that show glimpses of smart writing), but I simply can’t get behind the forced dialogue (or the failed character development attempts) and it just takes me out of it.
It’s brilliant in almost every other aspect and, like I said, it took me two viewings and a bit of reading in-between to fully appreciate it – although I do think it’s reached its maximum rating with me now -, so it’s all the more a shame… Could have been perfect.
But yeah, I really wouldn’t mind so much anymore if it won Best Picture anymore. It’s just that I think 12 Years is pretty much perfect (the supposed flaws others are pointing out I simply disagree with) and it would be so unbelievable for my favorite movie since Inception to actually win it!
Claudiu
No worries. I tend to be overly precious about GRAVITY and it’s brilliant minimalist screenplay 🙂
“My eyes are brown” 4eva!
“Such is the pity” you don’t see what I see. Cheers man.
Oh, Bryce, come on, now you’re exaggerating! 🙂 I was half joking anyway but, yeah, mostly, what I meant was that, at least, since Bullock was SAG nominated, it means her Oscar nomination isn’t a surprise, like I originally thought. Which is good (for me) because it means Gravity didn’t in fact get a surprise acting nomination that could have been an indicator of unusually strong support.
Anyway, I have to say, I’m now (as opposed to the beginning of the race) rooting for Gravity if it goes down to a heads-up vs. American Hustle alone, because, like I said, I understand them wanting to award it far more than I do AH. Plus I just saw it again last night and, while I found the dialogue to be even more atrocious than the first time around, it did make a better impression in every other department. Now I just think it’s a flawed near-masterpiece and, with a half-decent script (and better acting), I’m sure I actually would have loved it.
Ina Hark – thank you for the much better phrasing of the point I myself probably wasn’t able to articulate properly!
Thank you Marshall & Claudiu.
I would really love to talk about Inside Llewyn Davis instead of American Hustle at this stage of the race. It is really hard to believe it fell behind Philomena in a normal voting process.
The SAGs can mislead because they not only reflect actors’ voting but more often than not mean Best *Ensemble*
rather than Best Picture. If you don’t have a film with great performances by leads and supporting players, and a critical mass of the latter, you aren’t going to win. Movies that turn on a couple of brilliant performances or that rely more on other factors than acting for their primary impact still have a chance with PGA/BAFTA/Oscar. That said, Gravity still seems to me the long-shot among the big three for BP.
Bullock not nominated for SAG = No support from actors
Bullock nominated for SAG = Bullock’s Oscar nomination is meaningless
I don’t care about your truths.
“… Cabaret also won 7 Oscars…”
Cabaret won 8 Oscars.
“LOL you can have it, dude. You obviously care a lot.”
That I do, that I do… 🙂
But you’re probably wrong about me – I don’t want “it” if I haven’t earned it. I always welcome people pointing out my errors in judgement – I know most people don’t, but I do. I care about the truth, not about proving (correctly or not) that I’m right, which is a temporary but ultimately useless satisfaction.
Sammy – I know the question wasn’t for me, but I’d like to attempt an answer anyway. I think it’s because of the balance at the top in these last three years.
2011 had no real stand-outs involved in the Best Picture nomination race, with A LOT of good but not great movies (with maybe 1-2 exceptions, if you really HAVE to count The Tree of Life as a masterpiece), whereas 2012 and 2013 have both had an unusual number of very strong movies – both leading to there being a very large number of contenders not separated by much in the way of artistic worth and, I would say logically, a greater likelihood of there being more, rather than fewer, Best Picture nominees.
I don’t think this level of consistency can be maintained indefinitely, though, and I’m pretty sure we’ll see a year with 7 or less very soon – that is, if those guys who did the simulations for previous years reported their results correctly and there were, indeed, years with 5, 6 and 7 projected nominees in the past.
I guess that means it’s not such a big deal she was nominated for the Oscar. Cool!
LOL you can have it, dude. You obviously care a lot.
Marshall – Why do we end up with nine nominees each year? I believe it was less than nine this year and the Academy used its wildcards for one or two films. What do you think?
As I indicated in our Statsgasm BP simulation, since AMPAS voters are not required to rank beyond their #1 choice when nominating BP, I’m guessing that there is a high percentage of exhausted ballots in the 2nd round of voting, where the films that are eliminated from contention cannot have their votes transferred to another and are effectively thrown out all together. This lowers the total number of votes in play, which also lowers the 5% number a film needs to get nominated in the 3rd and final round of voting.
In the simulation only 2.3% of the ballots were thrown out, but that was enough to lower the 5% threshold enough for Blue Is the Warmest Color to sneak a nomination. I’ve been looking at some real-world election results using instant-runoff voting and the exhausted ballot rate has been as high as 10% in some cases. We obviously don’t know what the real rate is, but I’m sure it’s definitely a factor in why we’ve been seeing 9 nominees for 3 years straight.
OK Bryce, that’s fair. That’s how I perceived it but, as the one who detailed that point first (at least I think I was), I felt obligated to defend it.
So she was – LOOOL! Now THAT I forgot… That’s why I need to check stuff before I write (and I usually do, but I was a bit time-pressed on this occasion). My memory isn’t on par with my documentation. 😀
I guess that means it’s not such a big deal she was nominated for the Oscar. Cool!
Marshall – I knew it had happened, but I didn’t think it was so long ago. So yeah, I guess it’s very uncommon, but I also think there’s a very strong chance it happens again this year if Cuaron gets the DGA. Don’t see why not. Last year was crazy and, had they had the opportunity, the Academy members would have DEFINITELY voted for Affleck…
Marshall – Why do we end up with nine nominees each year? I believe it was less than nine this year and the Academy used its wildcards for one or two films. What do you think?
Claudiu,
Actually, nobody said that quote. It was just a composite of an attitude a perceived throughout the threat. Wasn’t really addressing you in particular. Honestly, as things stand this moment I do believe GRAVITY is 3rd in line for Best Pic, but if tomorrow it pulls off a win at the PGA, which I don’t think is happening, then I’ll have a reason to be much more optimistic.
If there was so much support for Gravity from the actors, Bullock would have been nominated at the SAG as well.
She was.
(two of those in a row aren’t actually all that uncommon, if I recall correctly)
The last and only time two splits in a row happened during the DGA era (when the DGA has been using the same calendar as Oscar) was 1951-1952, 60 years ago. So no, it isn’t uncommon – it’s *more* than uncommon.
Marcus – American Hustle has no momentum in Original Screenplay. HER is crushing AH in that category – Golden Globe + BFCA…
“The good thing this year is that this SAG comparison doesn’t apply for Gravity:there is no ensemble just one lead performance and a cameo.”
That is, of course, a flawed argument – the problem is PRECISELY the lack of an ensemble (just like it was for Life of Pi and others before it, such as Avatar). Most people here seem to get that… The actors branch, the largest of them all, needs strong performances to get behind. The SAG Ensemble snub is so powerful an indicator of Oscar Best Picture trouble for this exact reason, that it shows there isn’t enough support from the largest voting branch for the movie itself (because of the reason I just gave), which might be (I don’t have the figures) as much as twice as large as all of the technical branches combined.
If there was so much support for Gravity from the actors, Bullock would have been nominated at the SAG as well. And possibly Clooney as well.
OK, so it’s not as strong an argument against Gravity as it was against, say, Hugo, and the Bullock inclusion is telling (which is why I’m not completely ruling out a Gravity win); but to say that it’s not an important argument nonetheless is quite incorrect.
Add to this the screenplay problem, the fact that it’s not won anything major yet in Best Picture, and you have a movie that’s actually in even more trouble than Argo was last year (and has no powerful underdog/snub narrative to help it along – people actually AGREE with the screenplay snub). The only SLIM chance Gravity has of winning Best Picture (and the only reason it’s not yet out of the race) is that it might be perceived as the new Titanic, a technically groundbreaking adventure epic. But even that scenario has obvious faults in logic – this is an effects-driven space movie, whereas Titanic was a historical movie. However, if it doesn’t win the PGA, even if Cuaron gets the DGA, I’m almost positive both he and the movie will lose at the Oscars.
And, like I said, even PGA+DGA wins wouldn’t be enough to make it an uncontested favorite against the SAG winner. It would make a split somewhat more likely, though. I guess saying that if the PGA and the DGA both go to Gravity, then it becomes the slight favorite, is a valid point, but to say that “it’s over”, like half the people posting here have been trumpeting, is just dead wrong and it’s getting annoying, to be honest.
@JS – yes, Gladiator. 🙂 You found it… Gravity will be the worst positioned in case of a 3-way guild split because both 12 Years and AH, who won’t have been snubbed in anything major, like Gravity for screenplay and SAG Best Ensemble, will have both proven that they have major support (as opposed to, say, Lincoln and Life of Pi last year), Gravity will have won no major Best Picture precursors and will also have to overcome the genre issue. Do you need more arguments? Gravity BADLY needs to win the PGA to prove it has enough support to overcome all of these hurdles. Argo’s win despite the director snub last year didn’t come out of nowhere – it had to win practically every single precursor to prove that it had the support to compensate for it and, even then, you still couldn’t really be too sure it would win.
@Robin Write – I think you’re the one who needs to stop being childish… How many of the examples you just gave were effects-driven space movies? Your categories are much too specific. The point made was about landmark space movies and how the Academy consistently snubs them for the win in the major categories. The Right Stuff, Apollo 13, 2001: A Space Odyssey, Star Wars, Alien, Aliens… What is your counter-example of a space movie that has actually won Best Picture? (Clue: there aren’t any.)
““GRAVITY wins PGA + DGA = still in the worst possible position to win, whatever wins SAG ensemble has the edge”
I’m not sure who but someone said that in this thread, someone did.”
Bryce, you might want to recheck what I said – I said it was still probably not even the favorite, given the screenplay and SAG snubs and the lack of any major precursor BP wins. A debatable favorite at best.
Trust me, I am smart enough to realize when I’ve said something stupid, especially if someone points it out to me, but this is obviously not the case.
“I’m too gloomed out to look up whether or not Slumdog Millionaire got a SAG ensemble nomination.”
Of course it did. It’s verified, Ryan – I have tables, I’m not speaking out of memory here. Braveheart is the only BP winner without a SAG Ensemble nomination since such nominations have existed.
“I think some of you guys are a little funny in the head.
A freaking CGI space movie winning Best Picture over a landmark drama about slavery and an ensemble comedy loved by the acting community?
Really?”
Finally some sense…
I’d also like to point out a flaw in my own logic – I said earlier that the DGA/BD Oscar split was overdue, but I forgot about Affleck winning the DGA last year. Doesn’t change things too much (two of those in a row aren’t actually all that uncommon, if I recall correctly), but it’s a mistake nonetheless.
You’d rank it #1 and Gravity/AH #8 and #9. You love both Cuáron and McQueen, but want the former for the win: rank him #1 and McQueen #5.
That’s the obvious strategic way to ensure a win under preferential balloting, but it only works under the assumption that the average AMPAS voter is sophisticated enough to vote tactically. And it’s a *very strong* assumption to make.
“GRAVITY wins PGA + DGA = still in the worst possible position to win, whatever wins SAG ensemble has the edge”
I’m not sure who but someone said that in this thread, someone did.
“Therefore, it is surprising to me that people are so confidently predicting a split.”
It is surprising if you just think about when it happened by “accident” (Crash/Brokeback). It’s not the case this year. They WANT it to happen. The HFPA did, the BFCA did, DGA/PGA will, BAFTA will and THE ACADEMY WILL.
Give this some thoughts: the math behind the preferencial ballots influences the nominations, not the win. It’s too simple: being an Academy voter, what would you do if you (even loving the 3 movies) wanted 12 Years for the win? You’d rank it #1 and Gravity/AH #8 and #9. You love both Cuáron and McQueen, but want the former for the win: rank him #1 and McQueen #5.
Think about it, Sasha. That’s how IT WILL HAPPEN!
Let’s put it this way, If Gravity wins the PGA tomorrow night it may not necessarily be completely over but just about. For those who keep bringing up Avatar here’s a little trivia question for you. What does Gravity have that neither Avatar, nor Hugo nor Life of Pi have? Answer: An acting nomination. To say the actors aren’t behind the movie when it has one star, one extended cameo and a couple of people who are literally in the film for less than 5 minutes is a bit of a reach. Obviously it’s not going to get an Ensemble SAG Nomination. The thing I look at is it’s probably going to win DGA. It will undoubtedly win the majority of the techs. There is no “poor Ben didn’t get nominated” narrative this year. The film has the most nominations. There are definite signs that Gravity will win.
Would be kinda funny if AH just ended up being Silver Linings Playbook 2.0 and walk away with just one trophy at the end. It got the same 8 nominations SLP got(BP, BD, the four acting, Editing, Screenplay), plus two more because its in the 70s, so production and costume design. But everybody just sees 10 noms > 9 noms and freak out, lol, omg the Academy really liked it its over!
“I’m too gloomed out to look up whether or not Slumdog Millionaire got a SAG ensemble nomination.”
Not only did it get a nomination, it won SAG Ensemble.
ok thanks, I knew there was some repressed thing about that Slumdog situation that was causing me anxiety.
It’s likely that a lot of people in the Academy have not even bothered to watch 12YAS; I hear this often. Though it may lead in #1s, Gravity would not be far behind in #1s (similar to the AwardsDaily results). The key difference is that Gravity has been seen by almost everyone, allowing it to nab more #2s than 12YAS.
And to reiterate, there are only 100 members in the HFPA and 250 members in the BFCA; they’re barely an indicator of the 6000 members of AMPAS. Let’s wait for the PGA…
Gravity’s lack of SAG ensemble is not an argument. Gravity was as eligible for the SAG ensemble as 12YAS was eligible for the WGA.
I’m too gloomed out to look up whether or not Slumdog Millionaire got a SAG ensemble nomination.
@ Gustavo H. Razera
“I think some of you guys are a little funny in the head.
A freaking CGI space movie winning Best Picture over a landmark drama about slavery and an ensemble comedy loved by the acting community?
Really?”
A small movie about a nobody boxer winning Best Picture over well-acclaimed political thriller and a superbly written and acted TV drama?
A running movie wins Best Picture over Warren Beatty epic?
A old lady and black chauffeur wins Best Picture over disabled vietnam veteran, a seize the day kind of teacher, a magic old baseball dreamer, and a British cerebral palsy sufferer?
Violent, suspense thriller about woman-skinner and face-eater wins Best Picture over classic beauty-lies-within love story, glossy Vegas gangster biopic, and president assassination investigation movie?
Forrest and Jenny wins Best Picture over Miss Mia Wallace and Vincent Vega?
Facepainting wins Best Picture over talking pig, trapped in space, Jane Austen, and a postman?
Richard Gere wins Best Picture over Daniel Day Lewis, Meryl Streep, Ian McKellan and Roman Polanski?
Crash wins Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain?
Regal stammering wins Best Picture over Facebook.
No Best Director nominee wins Best Picture over Best Director nominees and other no Best Director nominees?
Let’s stop being childish and get some persepctive… 🙂
upset.
“Don’t confuse the pretty sentences Buford T Justice writes with objective insight. “Buford T Justice” is “benny tarleton” — he’s been playing this game using different IDs for weeks.”
Wait, he’s that Benny Tarleton guy? Thanks, Ryan. Duly noted.
“The nomination of Christian Bale into the most competitive category of all is indeed the smoking gun , the canary in the coalmine , that warns us of the looming threat of American Hustle ;I wish it wasn’t so , but it simply is ”
Maybe. But remember that Silver Linings Playback also got a quite unexpected acting nomination last year, and that meant nothing in the long run. (True, however, that Best Supporting Actress wasn’t as competitive as Best Actor is this year.) But I’m confused by one other thing, Buford. Didn’t you say in some thread that 12 Years is going to sweep at BAFTA? Christian Bale was nominated for Best Actor at BAFTA, too, over stronger competition. So Bale’s nomination is the smoking gun that heralds 12 Years defeat at the Oscars, but it’s not a smoking gun at BAFTA where 12 Years a Slave (you predict) will win mightily. What’s the reasoning for that? Bale is English so they had to nominate him? McQueen is British so they feel they have to reward 12 Years a Slave? *scratches head*
“American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave are the most likely, let’s be honest, to come away with absolutely nothing at all.”
Not true with 12 Years, which is a formidable frontrunner for adapted screenplay. I would argue that a screenplay win for 12 Years is more certain than a Cuaron win in director. What else will win adapted–Before Midnight? Captain Phillips? Philomena? WoWS?
“A freaking CGI space movie winning Best Picture over a landmark drama about slavery and an ensemble comedy loved by the acting community?
Really?”
Remember this is the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences that we’re talking about.
Don’t confuse the pretty sentences Buford T Justice writes with objective insight. “Buford T Justice” is “benny tarleton” — he’s been playing this game using different IDs for weeks. He showed up to undermine 12 Years a Slave two months ago and everything he posts is done in methodical but clumsily transparent service of that one single mission.
I think some of you guys are a little funny in the head.
A freaking CGI space movie winning Best Picture over a landmark drama about slavery and an ensemble comedy loved by the acting community?
Really?
Traffic must be the unluckiest movie to not win Best Picture {apart from Cabarat obviously} when you take into consideration wins for Directing, Acting, Screenwriting, and Editing…
Oh – here we go: Gladiator won PGA, Traffic won SAG, and Crouching Tiger won DGA. But in that case, I’d just say Crouching Tiger was a foreign language film, and leave it at that. 😉
“We could well have 12 Years winning the PGA, AH the SAG and Gravity the DGA, and in this case I think Gravity would be the worst placed of the bunch, and 12 Years the best positioned (this exact situation has appeared 3 times in the past and the SAG winner never got Best Picture).”
2004 = PGA: Aviator, SAG: Sideways, DGA: Million Dollar Baby
2001 = PGS: Moulin Rouge, SAG: Gosford Park, DGA: A Beautiful Mind
I don’t see any other instances in which the PGA and DGA went to different movies in the SAG era. The Crying Game won PGA, but that was before SAG was handing out awards.
But what do you notice about the winners? As you point out, the SAG winner doesn’t win the Oscar. But you think that Gravity would be the “worst placed of the bunch”? The DGA winner is the won that historically wins Best Picture in this scenario!
Gravity will win DGA and Oscar Best Director. I think it is perceived very much as a “director’s achievement” — the conception and realization of this film that is both vast (set in space) and at the same time very intimate and small (essentially one character lost in one pinpoint of space). The intense and singular focus of the film is, I think, credited to the director (rightly or wrongly).
I for one found Gravity to be utterly mediocre — perfectly entertaining, and a technical achievement, but nothing more — but it will win those awards. But it will never win the PGA or Best Picture.
Rob Y, exactly… you are so right.
Gravity is the film embraced and nominated by more branches this year:
Music Branch!!! only Gravity and no AH and no 12
Actors Branch
Directors Branch
Producers Branch
Cinematographers Branch!!!! only Gravity and no AH and no 12
Designers Brunch Gravity
Visual Effects Branch!!! only Gravity and no AH and no 12
Sound Branch!!! only Gravity and no AH and no 12
Film Editors Branch
I do think Gravity probably needs to win the PGA and/or DGA to take it to the Oscar win more than 12 Years A Slave or American Hustle do. However, as I have said from the start, I feel Gravity looks to be favorite anyway so the Guilds {not so much SAG} can only confirm this to some extent.
I don’t think on this occasion the lack of Screenplay hinders Gravity either – let history be made once more. The same way I feel Lawrence is potentially American Hustle’s best chance of a win, and does not therefore strengthen it’s Best Picture chances necessarily.
American Hustle and 12 Years A Slave are the most likely, let’s be honest, to come away with absolutely nothing at all. Though the Best Supporting Actress two-horse race makes it near impossible that both will. All three of those films can still take Best Picture with or without Acting wins – at SAG or the Oscars {the Ensemble award could be key}.
So PGA then, this looks only to swing what we think is the front-runner into this direction or that. For me, if Gravity wins, it could well be all over, with it likely also to sweep technical categories {which won’t change if it does not take PGA}. If 12 Years A Slave wins, the split is on, and this might just push the film back into the lead for Best Picture. Just. If American Hustle takes it, which it won’t, then 12 Years A Slave is gone.
Also, to add, if Rush takes Stunt Ensemble it will have no reflection on Best Picture at the Oscars whatsoever… 🙂
‘American Hustle’ seems like the most likely front-runner for Best Picture, since it also has momentum in other categories like Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay. ’12 Years a Slave’ has all the momentum in the Best Picture category throughout the precursors, but that’s about it. Everything else the film is up for has other projected front-runners. ‘Gravity’ is nearly a sure bet for Best Director, just based on momentum. What I’m really interested in is Best Actor. Matthew McConaughey seems to have the best chance of winning that one, but not by much. He is in fierce competition with Chitewel Ejiofor, and Leonardo DiCaprio for this prize. Best Supporting Actor? D’UH! Jared Leto. Best Supporting Actress could be the tie-breaker between ‘Slave’ and ‘Hustle.’ Jennifer Lawrence has the most momentum, thus far. But Lupita Nyong’o is nipping at her heels after her Critics Choice win. The SAG will give a better indication of who Academy voters might go for. That could also push either ‘Slave’ or ‘Hustle’ into a better position to take Best Picture. This years Academy Awards are going to be interesting.
Gravity is this year Avatar. It has yet to win Best picture. If anything it should have won the globe just like avatar did. The race is between 12 and AH.
If Gravity is Macbeth’s ” A Story told by an idiot filled with sound and fury , but signifying nothing ”
… then American Hustle is ” Much ado about nothing ” !
…then 12 YAS is Hamlet’s ” THE PLAY’S THE THING ! …and therein catch the conscience of a King ”
But will this latter day Hamlet catch the conscience of the great American middle class ?… will ”white guilt ” burden their voting conscience ?… hereby lies the mystery of things
So one branch does not nominate it, and everything is for naught? It has the most nominations (tied with Hustle). It has more branches nominating it than any other film. How exactly does that make it spent?
With no screenplay nomme i’m making an educated guess that Gravity is a spent force and the race is down to 12 YAS and American Hustle
I don’t think there will be a BP/BD split …winner takes it all !
“If it wins best picture at the Oscars, it’ll become only the second film post-SAG to make it without a SAG ensemble nomination.”
The good thing this year is that this SAG comparison doesn’t apply for Gravity:there is no ensemble just one lead performance and a cameo. So, this Gravity peculiarity make things more unpredictable. Another gift Gravity gave us is an achievement in directing which is above competition! I’m here watching and I could be wrong but I consider almost impossible that someone but Cuaron wins DGA and Oscar BD.
SAG tonight will “only” clarify which film is the one going against Gravity for the Best Picture Oscar.
If American Hustle wins SAG and PGA then it will be clear it is the favorite movie by the industry and it will probably win BP.
I like the fact that people are interpreting Gravity’s lack of a SAG Ensemble Award to mean that it’s destined to lose BP. Let’s put this into the right context. There are only two actors on screen in the entire film; that’s not much of an ensemble. From a different perspective 50% of its actors earned an individual nomination. That must mean that it has to win Best Pic .
If the film had a sizable cast and missed ensemble then one could read something into it, not with just two.
I see 12 years taking the PGA and best picture at the oscars. Hustle could win the sag but 12 years does have an A list cast with 3 acting nods and actors love Brad Pitt.
I think Gravity is going to win PGA and DGA.
And Dallas Buyers Club has a real chance for winning the SAG Ensemble.
Well said, Jason Travis!
Argo is not comparable to American Hustle except maybe the 70s nostalgia and Ben Affleck’s wig.
For one thing, Argo was a slicker, better made film that had a gripping story and WORTHY wins for Film Editing and Adapted Screenplay. I loved Lincoln’s script and it definitely should have won, but Chris Terrio’s writing was also amazing: funny, witty, quick and about the writer’s guild; this was a writer’s movie. On top of that, Argo had the sentiment of Poor Ben going for it all season long. The BAFTA wins clearly showed that they wanted to rally behind the Affleck Train.
American Hustle is not witty or charming; it’s brassy and hollow. Biased I may be, but look at the evidence: only 1 SAG acting nomination, and likely to lose Oscar nods for it’s actors to the likes of DiCaprio/McConaughey, Blanchett, Leto and Nyong’o. Russell winning director??? Not with that reputation he has, and criminal charges coming towards him. Her losing Screenplay? I think not. Perhaps AH will win in one category: Best Campaign- oh but that’s not an official Oscar category is it? Well I’ll be damned- looks like this bomb will go 0/10 and join the likes of Gangs of New York and True Grit, recent bloated films that sadly missed out on the big night.
In fact, with the rise of Dallas Buyers Club- and that film making it in surprise categories of Screenplay (which I correctly predicted) and Film Editing, I would bet that it too will have more passion by March 2nd then this big oogly mess. And while haters will say 12 Years a Slave missed out on Cinematography and Score, didn’t American Hustle miss out on Makeup & Hairstyling??? An award it seemed destined to WIN? Let’s all sit down for a minute, drink our black coffee and just relax for a few weeks. Even if PGA and SAG go Hustle’s way, I have a feeling true Oscar voters won’t buy into the scam of American Hustle.
12 YAS will indeed sweep at BAFTA , but it aint going to win PGA or SAG
If Hanks had been nominated instead of BALE I would of given 12 YAS the benifit of the doubt , but not now as it’s simply an indictor too obvious to ignore
For those of us paying attention to the BAFTA nominations last year when LINCOLN was percieved as the frontrunner , it was the dramatic inclusion of Ben Afleck into the best actor category that tipped us off that ARGO had real love and momentum …AND SO IT WAS !
In a similar dramatic way the inclusion of CHRISTIAN BALE should warn us of the strength , momentum and affection for the American Hustle …a victory of the frivolous over the important , of mere entertainment over historical gravitas …they did it last year with Argo , so why not this year too ?
So far 12 years has won the big prize at the globe and BFCA. It’s going to take the PGA and we all know how huge it will do at BAFTA. That mean it will have won 4 of the 5 bif races for best picture before the oscars.
@ Marshall Flores,
GRAVITY doesn’t have the genre bias, the lack of a writing nomination only. It has another hurdle on its way.
If it wins best picture at the Oscars, it’ll become only the second film post-SAG to make it without a SAG ensemble nomination. Until now only Braveheart has achieved this. It doesn’t have the Golden Globe for best drama or the Critics’ Choice win either, which makes its win even less likely. It’ll end up with zero SAG wins as well.
There are indeed eerie similarities between American Hustle and Argo
Both capture the nostalgia for the 1970’s very well , with the music , clothes and big hair , both lack the gravitas of the frontrunner ; both came strong late in the race to challenge the favorite ;both were default choices when the Academy was having trouble embracing the historical masterpiece …both were consensus choices when the favorite was percieved as being too devisive ..both were the the least objectionable and easy to digest …both look to me like they win by default
I think this weekend is decisive and will decide the race …given the strength of the actors in American Hustle no one else is going to win ensemble at the SAGs and if it then goes on to win PGA then it’s CHECKMATE …I really hope this doesn’t happen as it is , like ARGO ,an average movie unworthy of BP, but I suspect it will
The nomination of Christian Bale into the most competitive category of all is indeed the smoking gun , the canary in the coalmine , that warns us of the looming threat of American Hustle ;I wish it wasn’t so , but it simply is
American Hustle is peaking just at the moment when 12 YAS and GRAVITY are running out of steam and will , I predict ,win SAG and PGA…..furthermore , it’s highly unlikely that a director wins with only tech oscars, therefore , I also predict that RUSSELL wins B D
Ergo , American Hustle wins both BP , BD and best screenplay ….GRAVITY wins the techs and 12 YAS wins screenplay , best support actress and possibly, maybe , best actor
Antoinette
Crapity ? WOW, you are such a bully.
PREDICTIONS FOR THE OSCARS
As of January 18, 2014
_____________________________________________
Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Original Screenplay: Her
Cinematography: Gravity
Art Direction: Gravity
Sound: Gravity
Sound-Editing: Gravity
Visual Effects: Gravity
Costume Design: 12 Years a Slave
Makeup: Dallas Buyers Club
Film Editing: Gravity
Original Score: Gravity
Song: Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Foreign Film: The Great Beauty
“if, by any chance, he doesn’t and Steve McQueen wins DGA, then 12 Years a Slave is going to win BP for sure (Even if Cuaron prevails at the Oscars)”
That’s also a plausible outcome that a lot of people aren’t considering.
“If Gravity wins PGA I don’t see how it can lose DGA and the Oscars for BD and BP.”
That’s unfounded, but I’ve already done the stats and explained the reasons once today, in another thread, so I won’t go through them again. Gravity would at most be a marginal favorite over the SAG winner (provided it’s AH or 12YAS) if it won both the PGA and DGA.
“if 12 Years a Slave or maybe Dallas Buyers Club win SAG ensemble then AH is not strong enough to win BP at the Oscars.”
Agreed – seems like a very logical assumption.
“Wings, Broadway Melody, Grand Hotel, Cavalcade, Hamlet, Sound of Music, and Titanic all won BP without a screenplay nod. 8/85 – rare, yes, but it also has happened twice as often as a film winning BP without a director nod.”
And how many of those happened in the last 45 years?… Whereas the Director thing has now happened twice in 25 years. So… what Robert said! Plus – what Ryan said! 🙂
“I think using statistics/precursors to predict Oscar nominations is far, far more difficult challenge to undertake than predicting Oscar winners. If someone is brave enough to do that, more power to them. But I’m not that masochistic, er, math-ochistic.”
I feel the exact same way, to the letter.
I guess it’s a good sign for 12 Years a Slave that in all of the last 3 years when people were predicting splits (I mean 2010-2012, because last year the split was pretty inevitable) the Academy went not for the more established director, like Cuaron and Russell are this year, and like Scorsese, Fincher and Cameron were in their respective years, but rather for the newcomer to the Oscar arena, which, in this case, would be McQueen (and before, Hazanavicius, Hooper and Bigelow), also awarding the film Best Picture in the process…
And, anyway, like many people are saying, it’s clear that no consensus has formed this year – nothing is sweeping the important awards -, as opposed to last year, when Argo dominated. It seems unlikely any movie will win all 3 guilds, which tells me Cuaron will probably win the DGA (seems the most logical inference) – but lose the Oscar to whoever wins BP; like I said, that happens roughly 20% of the time and it’s not happened for far longer than four years now, so it’s way overdue. And two splits in a row at the Oscars also seem very unlikely, especially given how much backlash they got last year for the Affleck snub. Sasha’s right about this one.
That’s the scenario I think will play out this year. We could well have 12 Years winning the PGA, AH the SAG and Gravity the DGA, and in this case I think Gravity would be the worst placed of the bunch, and 12 Years the best positioned (this exact situation has appeared 3 times in the past and the SAG winner never got Best Picture). However, I just don’t know who’s winning the PGA and SAG right now, really – they’re very hard to predict. But I’m relatively confident about Cuaron winning the DGA.
So, to sum up, my prediction is that whatever wins the PGA also wins the SAG but loses the DGA to Cuaron, and then goes on to win both BP and BD at the Oscars. I guess the logical favorite for this scenario is American Hustle, with 12 Years a Slave only slightly behind. There are many, many other possibilities, depending on who wins what guild, but this is the one I think is most likely right now.
My head says 12 Years will win, my gut says Gravity will take the PGA, so I’m going with my gut. I have to say, it’s been a great race so far, here’s hoping it doesn’t crash fast like when The King’s Speech stopped all The Social Network momentum by taking the PGA and SAG in a weekend, and the DGA soon after.
I agree with Brian S. that the guilds and SAG may well have unique winners. Right now I’m feeling 12 Years for PGA, Hustle for SAG ensemble, and DGA for Cuaron. (I could also see PGA and SAG reversing those picks.) I am not feeling Gravity for Oscar BP. It is rightly not nominated for its script and is essentially a one-actor show. That’s going to make it shed a lot of votes from the acting and writing branches, although the directors and tech branches will come out strongly for it.
If Hustle wins PGA and WGA for original screenplay that may be it. But if it loses either of those plus doesn’t get SAG ensemble then things are looking up for 12 Years. I can also see a Globes redux where 12 Years wins BP but little else.
Sasha and the people here are severely underestimating Gravity.
I do agree with the prediction that is taking both PGA and the Oscars, seems like the perfect middle of the road between 12 Years and Hustle, not to mention it has the techs and the money on it’s side.
And I why on Earth American Hustle has bigger chances when it only has a real shot at Screenplay? That’s just silly.
I have a three-split prediction: SAG for Hustle, PGA for Slave, DGA for Gravity. I don’t think the winner of the PGA will outright win Best Picture because not all winners won the PGA. The winner will be the favorite entering Oscar night. This version has happened before: look up the 2001 winners. I just think the actors loved Hustle, producers would want to go for 12 Years, and directors can’t ignore the cutting edge work by Cuaron in Gravity.
Split seems assured this year. I can’t see Cuaron losing Best Director, his work was so innovative, cutting edge and unique, he really separates himself from the rest of the pack this year.
Most likely scenario: 12YAS Best Picture, Gravity Best Director
Unfortunately, I think that CRAPITY has the momentum right now. But this season has been so back and forth that could change a couple times before Monday. We shall see.
Also I don’t think what happened last year should count that much. Because it was really driven by sympathy for Ben Affleck. Most years you don’t have people voting because they want to make something up to someone with a Best Picture prize. That was a freak occurrence, imo.
[i]What you see now with Best Picture is a “generally favorable film” winning. A passion vote does not really pay off with a preferential ballot. Broad support works better. Divisive films do not have a chance and split votes between Picture and Director nearly impossible.
Says Marshall Flores:
“A split vote is defined as when the chances of winning for multiple candidates are reduced because they’re so similar to each other and, as a result, get reduced support from their backers. This gives an opportunity for the contender who is different to play spoiler and win without a majority of the votes. The potential for vote splitting is greatly reduced under instant-runoff voting, because the winner by construction must have broad support from the majority of voters, i.e. it must be the consensus choice.”[/i]
What Marshall is describing is “splitting the vote” (when two contenders in the same category are similar and a third candidate wins in a surprise because votes are split). But what Sasha is describing is a split between the winners of two different categories.
She’s arguing that a preferential ballot would cause two different categories to have the same winner? That doesn’t make sense at all. It might make sense if both categories used a preferential ballot, but I don’t believe they do. Picture will go to a consensus pick, not a passion pick, as Marshall correctly points out. But director can easily go to a passion pick.
12 Years a Slave looks good to go- when it won Best Picture (Drama) you could FEEL the heat and passion in the room. Ditto for BFCA. American Hustle is a shallow, empty marketing ploy- designed to do nothing but earn pointless acting nominations. I was so happy my favorites made the acting races (DiCaprio, Streep, Blanchett, Hawkins) but it seemed to mean nothing when you’re looking at the American Hustle cast making it- especially Bale!
Even if 12 Years a Slave loses Picture at PGA to American Hustle, we still have a month to go. Things could change. Granted, we have not had a true upset in Best Picture since Crash won back in 2005. And before that, I can’t see there being an upset in Picture since Shakespeare in Love. So truthfully, who knows this year.
I know it’s ridiculous to predict a split, but it seemed as though most of the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globe wins were greeted in the room with joy. This is a strong year for film and everyone knows it. I sense the admiration for Cuaron — something that’s palpable on this site even among those who would sooner crown 12YAS or WOWS — should not be underestimated. It reminds me of how Ang Lee was treated last year. I always think it weird when “that” kind of movie wins Director, knowing how they felt about Spielberg (and George Lucas, and now Christopher Nolan), but perhaps those movies were seen as mostly popcorn films (ridiculous when you’re talking Close Encounters and E.T.), whereas Pi and Gravity are “high art.” Maybe these men — Lee, Cuaron, James Cameron as always, Guillermo Del Toro if he can make the right film, and even Peter Jackson if he can get out of his hobbit phase — maybe these men are our new John Fords and David Leans, maybe these CGI-heavy, futuristic fantasies the new epics. And Hollywood loves an epic.
But I still say 12YAS wins SAG over Hustle or else how on Earth did none of the other 3 get an individual nomination? Cooper AND Hill lost out to Bruhl AND Gandolfini, and guess what, Cooper and Hill deserved their Oscar nominations! Blame it on the early return date for the SAG ballots, but in that case, I’ll wager that the votes too came in early, and that helps 12YAS and hurts Hustle. But if 12YAS wins Ensemble and Lupita beats JLaw and yet McConaughey STILL beats Ejiofor, which I’m predicting based on DBC’s Ensemble nom and the critics going for McConaughey, then Best Actor is done.
All I can say is thank GOD for a non-predictable year.
I think 12 Years of Slave is going to win ensemble and supporting actress. PGA will go to 12 Years of Slave.
Even though it’s being predicted that American Hustle will likely take the ensemble award or possibly 12 Years a Slave, but imagine if Dallas Buyers Club came out of nowhere and took the prize tomorrow night. That would make these awards even harder to predict.
Remembering Moulin Rouge and Little Miss Sunshine makes me hesitate to predict, but…. I think AH will take PGA. I also think that if it wins it will be a step up from the last three years. Faint praise, from me, anyway. Totally agree with Sasha about 12 Years and Wolf.
What I would really like to see is for Oscar to split from the guilds…. AH gets PGA, Gravity gets DGA and 12 Years (or Wolf) gets Oscar BP. I say this because the month between PGA and Oscar has become boring, because PGA has become such a powerful precursor.
btw: I wonder if AH is peaking early….. peaking right for the guilds but too soon for Oscar.
I think that American Hustle is going to win SAG ensemble but if 12 Years a Slave or maybe Dallas Buyers Club win SAG ensemble then AH is not strong enough to win BP at the Oscars. That is something the SAG Awards will say.
If Gravity wins PGA I don’t see how it can lose DGA and the Oscars for BD and BP. That is something PGA will say. If AH or 12 win PGA then we are going to see a split because I think Cuaron is going to win DGA and BD Oscar no matter what. The film that wins PGA between AH and 12 will be the BP winner at the Oscars.
So, I’m sure that Cuaron will win DGA but if, by any chance, he doesn’t and Steve McQueen wins DGA, then 12 Years a Slave is going to win BP for sure (Even if Cuaron prevails at the Oscars)
I predict Gravity will win PGA, DGA and Oscar.
I predict American Hustle will win SAG
I predict 12 Years a Slave will win Bafta
Sure there must be SOME logic behind it all, but considering there was a major snub in every main category this year (except adapted screenplay)
I think using statistics/precursors to predict Oscar nominations is far, far more difficult challenge to undertake than predicting Oscar winners. If someone is brave enough to do that, more power to them. But I’m not that masochistic, er, math-ochistic. 😉
“Wings, Broadway Melody, Grand Hotel, Cavalcade, Hamlet, Sound of Music, and Titanic all won BP without a screenplay nod.”
Wow, there have only been seven cases in the Academy’s entire history, and four of those happened in the first six years, when movies could win BP without winning any other awards (Grand Hotel). Those early years aren’t exactly comparable to today’s Academy. Very interesting stat, though.
I’m pretty sure Oscar predictions are still not something you can perfect with any kind of scientific theory.
I certainly don’t think that either. As I keep saying, statistical prediction is as much art as it is science.
“I’ve just over-educated enough to be able to use math in order to verify them and give them an estimated weight.”
Hmm..hah ? Sure there must be SOME logic behind it all, but considering there was a major snub in every main category this year (except adapted screenplay), I’m pretty sure Oscar predictions are still not something you can perfect with any kind of scientific theory.
Your own stuff seems so meticulous and I’m just like, eh, 25% chance
My stuff still very much relies on the various rules-of-thumb we longtime Oscar-watchers have used. I’ve just over-educated enough to be able to use math in order to verify them and give them an estimated weight. 😉
Haha no making fun of myself! Your own stuff seems so meticulous and I’m just like, eh, 25% chance
So when they predict a split and it happens it’s not the one they predicted so that leaves us with something like AMERICAN HUSTLE wins BP McQueen wins BD. And yet I could see that happening. You heard it here first.
How’s that for shoddy statistics work Marshall?!
I hope that you’re not implying anything about the quality of my own work there, Jerry.
Personally, I view the tendency to always predict a split in the exact same way as always predicting the U.S./world economy is going to crash into recession (Peter Schiff is like the best example of this). Eventually, a broken clock is still right twice a day. 🙂
Forget the 25%. The interesting lesson from recent history is that if it really feels like a split year, you have a 50% chance of being correct. Correct on the details… that’s much lower.
You could confidently predict a split most years. For instance: 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. You would have been right half the time, four times, and not necessarily in the right ways (Soderbergh for director instead of Lee, Polanski for Director rather than Scorsese, Crash for BP rather than Little Miss Sunshine, Lee for Director rather than Spielberg?) So I say on a year that feels like a split feels very possible, you have about a 25% chance of being correct.
How’s that for shoddy statistics work Marshall?!
After all is said and done, don’t you just get giddy at the idea of Alfonso Cuaron, Steve McQueen, David O. Russell, Spike Jonze, Emmanuel Lubezki and maybe Thomas Newman or Alexandre Desplat all getting their first Oscars in one night?
PS. You can throw Brad Pitt in there too if you want.
OT :
As quietly as possible, but Blue Jasmine crossed 100M worldwide ! Only the second Woody Allen film to pull that off. Actually there is a good chance that this awards season the films of ALL Best Actress nominees will reach that mark which is pretty rare, I don’t even believe it has ever happened before. Gravity, Blue Jasmine and American Hustle have already covered it, Philomena is destined to follow (already at 60M and the Weinstein-push / proper Oscar buzz has barely started for this one) and August : Osage County shouldn’t be far off, either.
Honorable mention to Emma Thompson whose film will also most certainly reach that mark and who – as a 55-year old British dame – headlined a well-received American studio film that also happened to be a prestige pic about a piece of iconic American film history…and the Academy somehow managed to miss all that.
Wouldn’t it be interesting if all the major guild awards (save the individual acting categories at SAG) went different ways?
That would be amazing, Paddy, and perfectly just.
It has been a year where it’s very difficult for everybody to jump onto one wagon. There’s more than one winner this year – hell, some were left out that we’ll be talking about for years.
I love American Hustle but 12 Years a Slave has Best PIcture in the bag. No doubter.
BP: 12YaS
BD: Cuaron
Done deal
I remember in 2000 that Gladiator was slated to win and Ang Lee was slated to win for Crouching Tiger. The results were different and yet it was still a split.
I remember in 2002 some were predicting Chicago to win BP and Scorsese to win Best Director. A split did occur, but I’m pretty sure no one predicted Polanski. I myself thought Polanski had a chance after the Pianist won at the BAFTAs, but didn’t have the courage to outright predict it and went with Scorsese too (Christ, 10 years ago already?)
Also the unlikeliest of all scenarios…
How do you come up with that?
Just an opinion. You’re welcome to disagree.
As (Dr) Rob Y pointed out yesterday, before this year, there have been 14 films that “hit the cycle” with all 4 acting categories. Of the 13 that were BP nominated, only *two* ended up winning – Mrs. Miniver and From Here to Eternity. Hitting the cycle is quite the accomplishment, but historically, the correlation with BP is very tenuous.
Also the unlikeliest of all scenarios…
How do you come up with that?
Has anyone ever predicted a split that actually happened?
I remember in 2000 that Gladiator was slated to win and Ang Lee was slated to win for Crouching Tiger. The results were different and yet it was still a split.
Although a strong case could be made that Gravity is right up the PGA voters’ alley, I think 12 Years a Slave will win in the end. I also think it will win the SAG Ensemble, too. I can see why a lot of people think American Hustle has that one in the bag – and it very well could be the case – but in my opinion, the fact it received only one individual nod compared to the three 12 Years a Slave got, suggests that they had considerably greater appreciaton for the latter…or at least I hope so.
I meant, Cuarón, not Curaon.
Eh it’s a win either way for me if Cuaron or McQueen were to the win the DGA/Oscar as it would be making history and both would be deserving as both films would be remembered. So I can kind of see the distinction in this case for a split. It’s the same way some of us thought that Fincher might still win even if King’s Speech took the big prize. Sadly it didn’t work out like that. I just hope Russell doesn’t win. I know he’s accomplished something interesting. Getting all acting accolades in each category. Even if he isn’t all that likable there are many actors that will want to work with him. Sadly the performances are only so good due to a lack of direction, lack of good writing, and a lack of experience(Lawrence’s case. Miscasting. Blame Russell really). Cuaron and McQueen are people we will talk about 50 years from now. Russell….I don’t know anymore.
The fact that the voters love American Hustle enough to nominate the film’s male and female actors in all four available categories, in my opinion, really says something.
Yes, SLP didn’t make it to the top in either BP or BD. But I find Hustle better than SLP, to begin with.
For now, I believe Hustle has even a slightly higher chance than 12 Years and Gravity in BP category.
I’m not sure about BD but for the time being I’m going to give Curaon [sp] an advantage over the other two fellow nominees.
Wings, Broadway Melody, Grand Hotel, Cavalcade, Hamlet, Sound of Music, and Titanic all won BP without a screenplay nod. 8/85 – rare, yes, but it also has happened twice as often as a film winning BP without a director nod.
Wings, Broadway Melody, Grand Hotel, Cavalcade, Hamlet, Sound of Music, and Titanic all won BP without a screenplay nod.
And what do all those movies have in common? Excluding Hamlet, they were all massively popular blockbuster money machines. Just like Gravity.
When a movie sells 75 million tickets it’s attracting a lot of moviegoers who don’t need no stinkin screenplay.
Therefore the definition of shocker.
Gravity all the way!!
Jerry, I don’t know, man. Has anyone ever predicted a split that actually happened? I’m not a good AMPAS historian so I couldn’t tell you. But I guess I could justify the split by thinking even though GRAVITY’s support in the Actors’ branch might be mild. Virtually everyone else will vote for Cuaron (directors, cinematographers, editors, sound mixers/editors, vfx people, etc) and that’s how he would get the edge? Of course I don’t literally mean every tech person in AMPAS, but a super overwhelming majority of them.
Gravity will work in the preferential ballot situation. It is universally well liked, and I can see that it would have the most number of Number 2 votes.
Also the unlikeliest of all scenarios, I realize, and that would be a true shocker at this point, is GRAVITY winning BP. And don’t jump down my throat with dissections/deconstructions of GRAVITY –I’ve read enough of them for the next 10 years. But anyways, I do see both 12 YEARS A SLAVE and AMERICAN HUSTLE as being the kind of fare that the “traditionalists” would support for one reason or another (this of course does not reflect on the films’ quality, that’s not my point). Both have very high profiles, admittedly for different reasons so they could both be considered “big enough”; one is very beloved and very important and the other is also very beloved and “safe”. Now I don’t know how large this group is (i.e. traditionalists), but I bet they have given the edge to most Best Picture winners in the whole history of AMPAS. So what if these two films that IMO appeal to the aforementioned demo end up splitting that vote, and GRAVITY literally sneaks in with just enough support.
The biggest detriment to a Gravity BP win–other than the whole genre bias thing–is that it doesn’t have a screenplay nomination. It’s rare for a movie to win BP without at least getting nominated in screenplay.
On the positive side for Gravity, it sort of fits into the type of movie that has overcome that handicap in the past–the popular blockbuster (Titanic, The Sound of Music).
I fear it’s gonna be American hustle. I really do. I hope I’m wrong.
Incidentally yesterday’s podcast had me thinking about sexism and the dominating male story winning BP. Have you gone back and checked how often best actor aligns with best picture vs best actress aligning? It’s like 3-1. Not even close.
In fact many best actress winners are for otherwise shitty movies not even in the BP race. That basically never happens for Best Actor.
A telling stat IMO.
Does that mean it’s Chiwetel or Bale? Maybe not but we will see
I think Gravity is totally out. Just me. Cuarón might take Director, but then again I feel like that’s been fairly a lock at this point.
I also think we’ll know who Best Picture is going to based off the result in the Best Supporting Actress race. If Jennifer Lawrence gets back-to-back Oscar wins, then I think that means the Academy loves American Hustle enough to award it Best Picture.
Also, I really have no idea, but maybe AACTA uses a preferential ballot as well? Since Australia’s elections are preferential.
I really think that Gravity will work in the preferential ballot situation. It is universally well liked, and I can see that it would have the most number of Number 2 votes.
I agree with you on most likely scenario, Bryce. But I think your “Very Unlikely” is actually “Somewhat Feasible”. Cuaron’s been winning all the director precursors while the same voting body has been awarding 12 Years the Picture precursors. I don’t think it’s “very unlikely” there’s a split, even though I know they’re rare. I still agree in predicting McQueen to prevail, at least for the time being.
My gut feeling is for Oscar night
Most likely scenario: 12 YEARS A SLAVE wins BP and BD
Biggest threat: AMERICAN HUSTLE wins BP and BD
Very unlikely: 12 YEARS A SLAVE wins BP GRAVITY wins BD
Not ever happening: AMERICAN HUSTLE wins BP GRAVITY wins BD
The fate of Best Picture is now in the hands of the PGA
I guess it’s not in their hands, but I think they are the best predictors.
Predictions
Winner: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Alternative: AMERICAN HUSTLE (if they like it just an iota more than my current estimation (lol) it will win. It’s just going to be #2 I sooo many ballots and #1 in many others)
Stunner: GRAVITY
Though not a critics group, it’s worth noting that the 2000 members of AACTA picked Gravity over AH and 12YAS.
It’s going to look very strange if Gravity wins both DGA + PGA (and probably ACE), wins the 6 tech awards it’s currently favored to win (Cinematography, Editing, Score, VFX, both Sounds), Cuaron wins Director, and *still* loses BP. But then again, Cabaret also won 7 Oscars, including Best Director and Best Actress, and we’ve generally accepted AMPAS splitting the laurels that year, because, well, The Godfather. But Godfather had won the DGA that year too…
Wouldn’t it be interesting if all the major guild awards (save the individual acting categories at SAG) went different ways? Like SAG Ensemble Cast went to American Hustle, WGA went with Her and The Wolf of Wall Street, and PGA and DGA split between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity (one to one and the other to the other, either way around). Definitely conceivable. And most unlike last year, when Argo fever was so ridiculously widespread that the film won the PGA, the DGA, the WGA and the SAG Ensemble Cast…
“A passion vote does not really pay off with a preferential ballot. Broad support works better. Divisive films do not have a chance and split votes between Picture and Director nearly impossible.”
^This is why 12 Years is winning both the PGA and the Oscar for Best Picture. Nobody’s negative about 12 Years. Plenty are negative about American Hustle. Goldderby’s predicting Gravity? I just don’t buy it. Where’s the evidence?
I also agree Sasha’s mantra that it is unwise and insensible to predict a BP/BD split. It would make a lot of sense to predict McQueen at DGA and at the Oscars. However. Ugh I don’t know. The safe money is still on Cuaron for Director I think… Won’t the Academy see this as an opportunity to reward several movies? But they could have done that in 2009 with Avatar and Bigelow, or 2010 with King’s Speech and Fincher, or 2011 with The Artist and Scorsese. And they didn’t. Still. Cuaron’s winning everything. This one’s tough.
No matter which way I twist and turn and hem and haw and contemplate … I think the final outcome will be very, very close between these 3 films.
I never thought of the possibility that Gravity could win PGA and DGA and not win Best Picture. Interesting.
Producing and directing are two different skills, so there are two different awards to acknowledge them. I don’t understand why someone want to force the Academy to give these two different awards always to the same film. Even if you don’t like Gravity you can’t deny Cuaron’s craftsmanship in directing.
The recent years when PGA and Oscar results differed (Little Miss Sunshine and Moulin Rouge) were in years before they started using the preferential ballot that Oscar also uses to determine BP. I wonder if the preferential ballot decreases the chances of a split in the PGA and Oscar results. (I’m not math-y enough to know the answer to this question.)
I’m going to predict 12 Years a Slave because if it’s going to win the Oscar for BP, I think it probably needs to win this first. And I want 12 Years to win, damnit!
So I’m going all in on 12 Years a Slave and hoping for the best.
Another great piece, Sasha. 🙂 But didn’t you write a couple of days ago that you were sure American Hustle was going to win Best Picture? In this article you say “I still think 12 Years a Slave” will win best picture. Did the Critics Choice change your mind? 🙂
It’d be nice for “Gravity” to win… just to make it even more of a three-horse race until the bitter end.
The short 5 year streak of the PGA and Oscar was preceded by some pretty glaring disagreements, though. There was no way Little Miss Sunshine, The Crying Game or Moulin Rouge were going to win BP with Oscar voters.
Based on that, I’m thinking the PGA and Oscar are overdue for conflicting results, especially in a year like this when you can throw a dart and pick a worthy winner.
SAG will go Hustle unless they rewatch the other contenders and come to their senses.
I think both the PGA and the DGA will go with Gravity/Cuaron, but that will still not damage 12 Years’ chances on Oscar night (or American Hustle’s chances, for that matter). Gravity will not win the Oscar for BP.