WGA PREDICTION CONTEST
It is sometimes the case that scripts that are ineligible for the WGA can go on to win the Oscar. It depends on whether that film is a Best Picture frontrunner or not, like The King’s Speech for instance. The general rule of thumb with screenplay, of course, is that the hotter the Best Picture contender the more likely it is to win for its screenplay, witness the debacle of last year where Tony Kushner’s marvelous screenplay was supplanted by Chris Terrio’s very charming and entertaining Argo. There is and never will be a question in my mind as to which script should have won last year — but Argo’s script was certainly the kind of script lots of people like – snappy dialogue, memorable and quotable lines, etc.
The bottom line is that at WGA or at Oscar, Best Picture tends to lead the way. Usually when predicting these awards you have to think about Best Picture and work back from there. The exceptions to this are those screenwriters who are famous for being great, like Charlie Kaufman. But generally speaking, a screenplay win can either be a confirmation of the film that is going to win Best Picture or a consolation prize for a film voters liked but not enough to award it the big prize.
This year, the supposed frontrunner for Best Picture, according to pundits, is 12 Years a Slave — they falsely believe that the Academy is going to split the awards giving Gravity director and 12 Years picture. I will be stunned if that happens as it’s never happened before. Best Picture, in a split vote scenario, has always gone to the film voters “like” (Crash, Shakespeare in Love, Chariots of Fire, Gladiator) while director goes to the more somber, serious film – Brokeback Mountain, Traffic, The Pianist, Reds, and on and on it goes. Nonetheless, that Best Picture heat could give John Ridley the win for the Oscar for 12 Years a Slave should that scenario play out. Look, the truth is, anything can happen. After the Affleck snub and subsequent win of Argo last year that kind of meant all bets were off where patterns and stats are concerned. But let’s assume 12 Years really is the frontrunner to win. It probably isn’t just going to win Best Picture and Supporting Actress. My dear pundit friends ask yourselves when was the last time that happened? It probably also isn’t going to win Picture, Supporting Actress and Screenplay, although Argo really did only win 3 Oscars last year.
But let’s just assume 12 Years is your Adapted Screenplay winner at the Oscars — it wasn’t eligible for the WGA. Gravity was eligible but not nominated for either. That suddenly means we are flying blind in adapted because none of the nominees have Best Picture heat. That means you have to go with buzz and word of mouth. To my mind there are two films that can win adapted – The Wolf of Wall Street and Before Midnight. I can envision a situation where either film wins but I’m going to tip my hat in the direction of Wolf, given that it is the film with the most Best Picture heat heading into the race. I’ll still predict 12 Years to win in adapted at the Oscars (Ridley would be the second African American to win in that category. Ever.)
But the Wolf win could signal an Oscar win for that screenplay too, a la Django Unchained last year. Django did not have to compete with Argo, however. Different categories. But if the Academy is really going to only give 12 Years a Slave Supporting Actress (which you can bet dollars to donuts they are most likely to do) Wolf could pull in a screenplay win at the Oscars too.
In the original category, you are 5/5 matched with Oscar. That makes it very very likely the WGA win will equal the Oscar win. It really looks to be down to two – American Hustle and Her. Hustle has, by far, the most Best Picture heat. It has snappy dialogue and is beloved. Moreover, if Hustle wins, David O. Russell can at last collect an Oscar. His actors keep winning but thus far, he’s gone home empty handed. I suspect that Her will give Russell some upset, however, both at the WGA and the Oscars.
You also have to watch out for Dallas Buyers Club. That film could surprise everyone and win, as could any of them, truth be told. But knowing this race how I do — my final predictions for WGA would be:
Adapted: Wolf of Wall Street (alt Before Midnight)
Original: American Hustle (alt Her)
You can enter our contest if you like and predict for yourself.
WGA | Oscar
2013 | 2013 |
Original | |
American Hustle | American Hustle |
Blue Jasmine | Blue Jasmine |
Dallas Buyers Club | Dallas Buyers Club |
Her | Her |
Nebraska | Nebraska |
Adapted | |
August: Osage County | 12 Years a Slave |
Before Midnight | Before Midnight |
Captain Phillips | Captain Phillips |
Lone Survivor | Steve Coogan, Philomena |
The Wolf of Wall Street | The Wolf of Wall Street |
2012 | |
Original | Original |
Zero Dark Thirty | Zero Dark Thirty |
Flight | Flight |
Looper | Amour |
The Master | Django Unchained |
Moonrise Kingdom | Moonrise Kingdom |
Adapted | |
Argo | Argo |
Life of Pi | Life of Pi |
Lincoln | Lincoln |
The Perks of being a Wallflower | Beasts of the Southern Wild |
Silver Linings Playbook | Silver Linings Playbook |
2011 | |
Win Win | The Artist* |
Bridesmaids | Bridesmaids |
50 50 | Margin Call |
Young Adult | A Separation |
Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris* |
Adapted | Adapted |
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | The Ides of March |
Moneyball | Moneyball* |
The Help | Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy |
The Descendants | The Descendants* |
Hugo | Hugo* |
2010 | 2010 |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Black Swan | The King’s Speech+ |
Please Give | Another Year |
The Fighter | The Fighter* |
The Kids Are All Right | The Kids Are All Right* |
Inception | Inception* |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Social Network | The Social Network* |
127 Hours | 127 Hours* |
True Grit | True Grit* |
I Love You Philip Morris | Winter’s Bone* |
The Town | Toy Story 3* |
2009 | 2009 |
Original WGA | Oscars |
The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker+ |
A Serious Man | A Serious Man* |
500 Days of Summer | Up* |
The Hangover | The Messenger |
Avatar | Inglourious Basterds* |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Up in the Air | Up in the Air* |
Crazy Heart | In the Loop |
Star Trek | District 9* |
Precious | Precious* |
Julie & Julia | An Education* |
2008 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Milk | Milk* |
Burn After Reading | Frozen River |
The Visitor | Happy-Go-Lucky |
The Wrestler | In Bruges |
Vicky Cristina Barcelona | Wall-E |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Doubt | Doubt |
Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon* |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button* |
The Dark Knight | The Reader* |
2007 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Diablo Cody, Juno* | Diablo Cody, Juno* |
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton* |
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages | Tamara Jenkins, The Savages |
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl | Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl |
Judd Apatow, Knocked Up | Brad Bird, Ratatouille |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood* |
Joel, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men | Joel, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men+ |
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Sarah Polley, Away from Her |
James Vanderbilt, Zodiac | Christopher Hampton Atonement* |
2006 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Babel | Babel* |
The Queen | The Queen * |
Stranger than Fiction | Letters from Iwo Jima* |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine * |
United 93 | Pan’s Labyrinth |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Departed | The Departed+ |
Thank You for Smoking | Notes on a Scandal |
Little Children | Little Children |
Borat | Borat |
Devil Wears Prada | Children of Men |
2005 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
40 Year Old Virgin | Syriana |
Crash+ | Crash+ |
Cinderella Man | Match Point |
Good Night, and Good Luck | Good Night * |
Squid and the Whale | Squid and the Whale |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain* |
Capote | Capote* |
Constant Gardener | Constant Gardener |
History of Violence | History of Violence |
Syriana | Munich* |
2004 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
The Aviator | The Aviator* |
Eternal Sunshine | Eternal Sunshine |
Garden State | Vera Drake |
Hotel Rwanda | Hotel Rwanda |
Kinsey | The Incredibles |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Before Sunset | Before Sunset |
Mean Girls | Finding Neverland* |
Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby+ |
Sideways | Sideways* |
Motorcycle Diaries | Motorcycle Diaries |
2003 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Bend it Like Beckham | The Barbarian Invasions |
Dirty Pretty Things | Dirty Pretty Things |
In America | In America |
Lost in Translation | Lost in Translation* |
The Station Agent | Finding Nemo |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
American Splendor | American Splendor |
Cold Mountain | City of God |
ROTK | ROTK* |
Mystic River | Mystic River * |
Seabiscuit | Seabiscuit* |
2002 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Far From Heaven | Far From Heaven |
Gangs of New York | Gangs of New York* |
Antwone Fisher | Talk to Her |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | Greek Wedding |
Bowling for Columbine | Y Tu Mama Tambien |
Chicago | Chicago+ |
The Hours | The Hours* |
About Schmidt | The Pianist* |
Adaptation | Adaptation |
About a Boy | About a Boy |
2001 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Gosford Park* | Gosford Park* |
The Man Who Wasn’t There | Amelie |
Monster’s Ball | Monster’s Ball |
Moulin Rouge | Memento |
The Royal Tenenbaums | The Royal Tenenbaums |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind+ |
Black Hawk Down | Shrek |
Bridget Jones’s Diary | In the Bedroom* |
Ghost World | Ghost World |
The Fellowship of the Ring | Fellowship of the Ring* |
2000 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Erin Brockovich | Erin Brockovich* |
Almost Famous | Almost Famous |
Best In Show | Gladiator+ |
Billy Elliot | Billy Elliot |
You Can Count On Me | You Can Count On Me |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* |
Chocolat | Chocolat* |
High Fidelity | O Brother Where Art Thou? |
Traffic | Traffic* |
Wonder Boys | Wonder Boys |
1999 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
American Beauty | American Beauty+ |
Being John Malkovich | Being John Malkovich |
Magnolia | Magnolia |
The Sixth Sense | The Sixth Sense* |
Three Kings | Topsy-Turvy |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Cider House Rules | The Cider House Rules* |
Election | Election |
The Insider | The Insider* |
October Sky | The Green Mile* |
The Talented Mr. Ripley | The Talented Mr. Ripley |
1998 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Bulworth | Bulworth |
The Opposite of Sex | Life Is Beautiful * |
Shakespeare In Love* | Shakespeare In Love+ |
Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan* |
The Truman Show | The Truman Show |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Gods and Monsters | Gods and Monsters |
A Civil Action | The Thin Red Line* |
Primary Colors | Primary Colors |
A Simple Plan | A Simple Plan |
Out Of Sight* | Out Of Sight |
WINNERS CHART
+Won Best Picture
*nominated for Best Pic
WGA | OSCAR
2008: Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Milk | Milk* |
2007: No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men+ |
Juno | Juno* |
2006: The Departed | The Departed+ |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine* |
2005:Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain* |
Crash | Crash+ |
2004: Eternal Sunshine | Eternal Sunshine |
Sideways | Sideways* |
2003: Lost in Translation | Lost in Translation* |
American Splendor | Return of the King+ |
2002: The Hours* | The Pianist* |
Bowling for Columbine | Talk to Her |
2001: A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind+ |
Gosford Park | Gosford Park* |
2000: Traffic | Traffic* |
You Can Count on Me | Almost Famous |
1999: American Beauty | American Beauty+ |
Election | The Cider House Rules* |
1998:Shakespeare in Love | Shakespeare in Love+ |
Out of Sight | Gods and Monsters |
1997: L.A. Confidential | L.A. Confidential* |
As Good as it Gets | Good Will Hunting* |
1996: Sling Blade | Sling Blade |
Fargo | Fargo* |
1995: Braveheart | The Usual Suspects |
Sense and Sensibility | Sense and Sensibility* |
1994: Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump+ |
Four Weddings/Funeral | Pulp Fiction* |
1993: Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List+ |
The Piano | The Piano* |
1992: The Crying Game | The Crying Game * |
The Player | Howards End* |
1991: The Silence of the Lambs | The Silence of the Lambs+ |
Thelma and Louise | Thelma and Louise |
1990: Dances with Wolves | Dances with Wolves+ |
Avalon | Ghost* |
1989: Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy+ |
Crimes and Misdemeanors | Dead Poets Society* |
1988: Dangerous Liaisons | Dangerous Liaisons* |
Bull Durham | Rain Man+ |
1987: Roxanne | The Last Emperor+ |
Moonstruck | Moonstruck* |
1986: A Room with a View | A Room with a View* |
Hannah and Her Sisters | Hannah and her Sisters* |
1985: Witness | Witness* |
Prizzi’s Honor | Out of Africa+ |
1984: The Killing Fields | Amadeus+ |
Broadway Danny Rose | Places in the Heart* |
1983: Tender Mercies | Tender Mercies* |
Reuben, Reuben | Terms of Endearment+ |
1982: Missing | Missing* |
Tootsie | Gandhi+ |
1981: Reds | Chariots of Fire+ |
On Golden Pond | On Golden Pond * |
Rich and Famous | |
Arthur | |
1980:Ordinary People | Ordinary People+ |
Airplane, Private Benjamin | |
Melvin and Howard | Melvin and Howard |
1979: Kramer vs. Kramer | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ |
Breaking Away | Breaking Away* |
The China Syndrome, Being There | |
1978: Midnight Express | Midnight Express* |
Coming Home | Coming Home* |
Heaven Can Wait | |
Movie, Movie | |
1977: Annie Hall | Annie Hall+ |
Julia | Julia* |
The Turning Point, Oh, God | |
1976: All the President’s Men | All The President’s Men* |
Network | Network* |
Pink Panther Strikes Again | |
1975: One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest | One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest+ |
Dog Day Afternoon | Dog Day Afternoon* |
The Sunshine Boys | |
Shampoo | |
1974: Godfather Part II | Godfather Part II+ |
Chinatown | Chinatown* |
Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz | |
Blazing Saddles | |
1973: A Touch of Class | The Exorcist* |
Save the Tiger, Paper Moon | The Sting+ |
Serpico | |
1972: The Godfather | The Godfather+ |
The Candidate | The Candidate |
What’s Up, Doc? Cabaret | |
1971: The French Connection | The French Connection+ |
The Hospital | The Hospital |
Kotch; Sunday, Bloody, Sunday | |
1970: Patton | Patton+ |
M*A*S*H | M*A*S*H* |
I Never Sang for My Father, The Out-of Towners | |
1969: Midnight Cowboy | Midnight Cowboy+ |
Butch Cassidy | Butch Cassidy/Sundance Kid * |
Goodbye, Columbus; Bob, Ted, Carol and Alice | |
1968:Lion in Winter | The Lion in Winter* |
The Producers | The Producers |
Funny Girl, Odd Couple | |
1967: The Graduate | In the Heat of the Night+ |
Bonnie and Clyde | Guess Who’s Coming… * |
Thoroughly Modern Millie | |
1966: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Wolfe? | A Man for All Seasons+ |
The Russians are Coming | A Man and a Woman |
1965: A Thousand Clowns | Dr. Zhivago* |
The Sound of Music, The Pawnbroker | Darling* |
1964: Becket | Becket |
Dr. Strangelove, Mary Poppins | Father Goose |
1963: Hud | Tom Jones+ |
Lillies of the Field | How the West Was Won |
1962: The Kill a Mockingbird | To Kill a Mockingbird * |
That Touch of Mink, Music Man | Divorce Italian Style |
1961: the Hustler | Judgment at Nuremberg |
Breakfast at Tiffany’s, West Side Story | Splendor in the Grass |
1960: The Apartment | The Apartment+ |
Elmer Gantry | Elmer Gantry |
The Bells are Ringing | |
1959: The Diary of Anne Frank | Room at the Top * |
Some Like it Hot, Five Pennies | Pillow Talk |
1958: Gigi | Gigi+ |
The Defiant Ones | The Defiant Ones |
Me and the Colonel | |
1957: 12 Angry Men | Bridge on the River Kwai+ |
Love in the Afternoon | Designing Women |
Les Girls | |
1956: Around world/80 Days | Around world/80 Days+ |
The King and I | The red Balloon |
Friendly Persuasion | |
1955: Marty | Marty+ |
Mr. Roberts | Interrupted Melody |
Love Me/Leave Me | |
1954: On the Waterfront | On the Waterfront+ |
Sabrina, Seven Brides/Seven Bros. | The Country Girl |
1953: From Here to Eternity | From Here to Eternity+ |
Lili, Roman Holiday | Titanic |
1952: High Noon, The Quiet Man | Lavender Hill Mob |
Singing in the Rain | Bad and Beautiful |
1951: An American in Paris | An American in Paris+ |
A Place in the Sun | A Place in the Sun* |
Father’s Little Dividend | |
1950: All About Eve | All About Eve+ |
Sunset Boulevard | Sunset Boulevard * |
Broken Arrow, Annie Get Your Gun | |
1949: All the King’s Men | All the King’s Men+ |
A Letter to Three Wives, on the Town | Battleground* |
1958: The Snake Pit | Treasure of the Sierra Madre* |
Sitting Pretty, Easter Parade |
It would be a major upset if anything but Her were to win Original Screenplay since it’s taken 20 screenplay awards (the most of any screenplay this season), including the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice. On top of that, it has the better writing, and it’s the exact kind of screenplay the WGA and AMPAS like to award. Looking at some of their past winners (Lost in Translation, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, Midnight in Paris), Her would fit right in. Plus, in a more general sense, the WGA has a tendency to award great screenplays in this category, only missing the mark twice (The Hurt Locker and Zero Dark Thirty) in the past ten years, and both were because QT was “disqualified.” In conclusion, Her seems like the very obvious and clear winner.
As for Adapted Screenplay, I’m thinking they’ll lean towards Before Midnight. It’s done better on the awards circuit (six wins, including LAFCA and NSFC), compared to Wolf’s three (including the NBR). Plus, Before Midnight has the better writing and I think the WGA will acknowledge that. That being said, their picks for Adapted Screenplay over the past ten years have not exactly been stellar, having only chosen four great screenplays in that time, so we might not be able to count on the best writing winning. However, hopefully they can start to make up for last year’s embarrassment at least.
SmartGuy – I think Before Midnight is the best Adapted Screenplay.
Ang Lee also won DGA and Globes for BBM.
“That’s a bit harsh. 🙂 I didn’t think [BBM] was THAT bad. But, yeah, definitely nothing new, particularly convincing or incredibly moving or anything like that.”
Ha. I didn’t mean to be that harsh and I don’t mean it’s pedestrian as a McConnaughey rom-com or anything. But even in those movies there are character development with some sort of details. BBM just relies heavily on sympathy. What I meant is it’s not any better than a movie like “The English Patient”, another wretched movie romance.
Anyway, Ang Lee didn’t win the Oscar as BD for BBM. He won it for a combination of BBM, Crouching Tiger, and Sense and Sensibilities. If he didn’t have those other 2 movies in his resume’, I’m afraid that the BD might have gone to Paul Haggis too. I just want to throw that in just to see if we can add another wrinkle to Sasha’s theory.
Well, I still hope that “Before Midnight” will win both WGA and Oscar. It should because it has best screenplay in “best adapted screenplay” category.
Well, this one came out alright. Weird… Anyway, it seems as though it was a temporary problem, so no sense bothering about it anymore!
“Claudiu, reformatting?”
Yeah, I’m not seeing separate paragraphs for my most recent messages, just one long paragraph. I’m seeing the others fine, with paragraphs and blank rows and everything. But I guess it’s just on my end – you guys are probably seeing them correctly, since you didn’t notice anything unusual. Oh well, it’s no big deal.
Sorry about the delayed answer – I just watched a rather long David Lean movie :). (A Passage to India)
As for the other thing – I think it should be ‘think’, actually, because I said “I’m definitely one of those who think” etc., I didn’t say “I’m one who thinks”. 🙂 I usually read what I’ve written again before posting, because I tend to write pretty fast the first time around and make mistakes because of it. But this particular paragraph I added at the end, and I failed to proofread it.
I think WGA writers can appreciate the beauty of the HER script, while also spotting the laziness/sloppiness of the American Hustle “script.” So I think HER takes WGA, but not convinced it wins the Oscar. It would be a shame to see something so beautifully crafted lose to something so mediocre.
Wow, some weird reformatting going on right now…
Claudiu, reformatting?
Well, I’m not defending its win TOO MUCH either… It’s still a below-average winner. I don’t think I’d give it the win in any other year in recent memory, but 2005 is a real low-point for me, movie-wise (I emphasize the fact that this is just my opinion). I personally don’t think there’s anything else outstanding that year (that I’ve seen), good enough to beat Crash.
I really didn’t like the direction the movie industry was going with its story selection and style at the time (2004, for instance, is another year with very few movies I really like, and none that I love without reservations) and I’m happier than most that they didn’t stick with that trend. 2007 was about the same – I know everybody loves NCFOM and TWBB, but I’m ‘meh’ about the first and I just don’t like the second. But then, from 2008 onward, it got better, for me, and the last 2 years have been among my very favorites since the ’90s, my favorite decade ever for movies.
This year, for instance, I might not even nominate Crash, perhaps not even in a field of 10, let alone 9. And I haven’t even seen Nebraska, Philomena (or The Desolation of Smaug, which I’m bound to love) yet.
I guess by quoting the review I might have done it and myself a slight disservice, because now people won’t need to read it in its entirety to see what I’m talking about. But Ebert says many more interesting things about the movie than the ones I chose for my quotes – those are just some “highlights”, if you will. So, READ IT, by all means, if you have enough interest in the matter. I recommend it! It’s not bad… 🙂
Well… “think”, actually. I love it when I make these corrections and I can’t even get them right the second time! :))
(“thinks” looks right to me, Claudiu. “One who thinks.” Correct. “..of those…” is a prepositional phrase. Your noun verb agreement “One/thinks” is fine… …it’s fine, methinks.)
I won’t defend the Crash win or even its nomination, but liked the movie for reasons I do not expect others to share. It is an esoteric movie, didactic, as well. It says, over and over, that people are virulently racist/prejudiced underneath….. our prejudices are suppressed in everyday circumstances, but come roaring out when we are in conflict. That is one of my strongest beliefs so I liked the film because I agreed with it so strongly. The clunky structure is straight out of a diversity training – I liked the structure for that reason. A series of set pieces illustrating a point.
The fact that many people believe the ending to be redemptive (or intended to be redemptive) indicates to me a failure of the movie and its direction. Worst thing for Crash was the success of its kick-ass awards campaign.
“Crash is a mediocre (at best) film: not an ounce of subtlety and its plot depends on cheesy coincidence.”
Like I said, I understand and respect this point of view. For me, however, a movie doesn’t HAVE to be subtle in order to be good. Just interesting and well constructed enough that we believe it anyway… The coincidences were there and you (and many others :), I’m aware of it) thought they were cheesy – they were, if you want everything to be subtle all the time… I thought they were OK. They didn’t seem particularly contrived to me.
The movie did enough to warrant suspension of disbelief, I felt. Roger Ebert liked it too (http://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/crash-2005), and I don’t think anybody is going to accuse him of being an overly emotional or unsubtle critic. He didn’t say anything about it being “cheesy”.
So I would definitely say this, at least, is almost entirely a matter of taste. A few quick quotes from his review (4/4 stars, definitely not a mediocre rating):
Perfectly explained! He doesn’t seem to think subtlety is an absolute requirement for making good movies…
Sorry to “pull rank” on you like that, by using a respected critic’s thoughts instead of my own, to illustrate that liking Crash is valid and doesn’t automatically mean you have poor taste – don’t take it the wrong way!
I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not the best at expressing my ideas (sometimes I manage, if I try hard enough), particularly on as volatile a topic as movies, and he just puts it so well!… I’m definitely one of those who thinks Crash gets way too much hate due to having won BP over a more beloved movie (AND because it was also a somewhat unexpected win, leading to even greater disappointment/resentment).
–I think the Adapted Screenplay Oscar will go to 12 Years a Slave even if it doesn’t win best pic. And I think it will win best pic. Given how odd the recent Oscars have been I can see it winning best pic with just screenplay, and supporting actress (possibly production design).
I had no emotional response to Gravity whatsoever. Very beautiful looking but I just don’t get it. Difficult for me to see the Academy giving the top prize to a complete CGI movie with 2 actors.
–Ryan is absolutely correct about the impact of anti-gay initiatives in swing states led by Republicans to turn out the vote for Bush’s reelection. It’s been well- documented. It is overly simplistic to say it’s the only reason he won, but it was a close election that came down to a small percentage of the vote.
There was much talk at the time of homophobia dooming Brokeback’s chances/Academy members refusing to watch their screeners etc. Brokeback is not only a masterpiece, it was part of the zeitgeist of the time that you often see leads to best pic: constantly talked about, parodied, obsessively discussed.
Crash is a mediocre (at best) film: not an ounce of subtlety and its plot depends on cheesy coincidence. I was shocked when it was even nominated. Shocked it won screenplay! The fact that Brokeback didn’t even win one of its 3 acting Oscars was appalling.
“Most people I know who have a problem with BBM are not familiar with the actual repression of the times”
I do know OF it… But yeah, I wasn’t around back then, so I can’t truly relate on a personal level, for sure. However… (see below)
“The dialog drips with this – bravura, always talking around the subject, lack of eye contact. The subtext is there. The tragedy is in Ennis’ inability to make the leap when that period ends. The sadness is not a political message, but within the two characters specifically.”
Yup. I got that part, all of it – and I actually think the repression angle was quite well handled. It’s the most interesting part of the story for me, Ennis’ ultimately tragic character arc. Like I said, “moving, in places.” 🙂 If I’d been able to get into the characters, I’d have been far more moved by it, for sure.
Again, it’s the first part, the prolonged exposition, if you will, that I find unconvincing. That’s what sort of ruins it for me. But, yeah, it’s a personal thing. I can totally understand its working better for others.
“and/or don’t understand or relate to the rural male mystique of the 60′s. It has become foreign and forgotten. The film was more about the latter than the former; the repression was always in the background as a threat, but wasn’t entirely responsible for the two characters lack of familiarity with intimacy or compassion.”
That part I wasn’t that aware of, the rural male mystique. Interesting! I guess that’s why they made all those westerns back in the ’50s and ’60s – and why the genre was more successful in those days. 🙂
“You’re right – compassion wasn’t the driving force at first. It was outright horniness coupled with drunken opportunity. Guards went down, followed by pants.”
That’s the thing – I would have thought it took more than that to make one take such a huge, identity-questioning leap. But I guess it makes sense, in a way – built-up repression… That’s the only good explanation I can find. And I’m not convinced by their reactions afterwards. The awkwardness between them is there, but seems to be minimal in the immediate aftermath. Oh, well – I’m splitting hairs now! 🙂 I guess the same theory explains this as well, though not as convincingly. But, anyway, I know too little about the subject to go into this much detail with any amount of confidence. Besides, even had this part worked for me as seamlessly as it did for others, I still would have had a problem with the characters themselves and how unremarkable I found them to be. So this is probably not the main issue I have with it.
I guess I like my characters to be inherently fascinating, somehow. Or else, I need for the filmmaker to make them fascinating, by using them (in a natural, believable way) to say something new or very deep about humanity. Either that or an engaging/fascinating enough story to compensate.
“your complaints about the films are mostly based on taste and what you personally do or don’t find interesting and not particularly any “flaws” I can address.”
Yup, that’s what I figured it was myself – a taste thing. Just wanted to be sure…
“I’m doing film therapy tonight O.O”
🙂
True, Bryce. There’s also an argument that Jack was a bit of a predator, obviously having more experience, knowing how to draw out characters like Ennis. Kind and compassionate, for sure, but he knew what he wanted.
“You’re right – compassion wasn’t the driving force at first. It was outright horniness coupled with drunken opportunity”
Steve,
But guards went down when Ennis opened up to Twist the first time. The “That’s the most I spoke in a year” scene. Jack is a supremely kind and compassionate individual from the get-go. That was at least my perception of him. Add to that his outward authenticity is what relaxes Ennis to that point. Ugh never mind, that scene is so perfect and the grade of continuous difficulty gets fully executed without missing a beat until it explodes with Jack’s quite comical outburst.
That’s better, Claudiu. Thanks!
Most people I know who have a problem with BBM are not familiar with the actual repression of the times and/or don’t understand or relate to the rural male mystique of the 60’s. It has become foreign and forgotten. The film was more about the latter than the former; the repression was always in the background as a threat, but wasn’t entirely responsible for the two characters lack of familiarity with intimacy or compassion. The dialog drips with this – bravura, always talking around the subject, lack of eye contact. The subtext is there.
You’re right – compassion wasn’t the driving force at first. It was outright horniness coupled with drunken opportunity. Guards went down, followed by pants. Feeling had to develop and there was plenty of opportunity given their situation and environment. The tragedy is in Ennis’ inability to make the leap when that period ends. The sadness is not a political message, but within the two characters specifically.
For the Academy to have rewarded BBM, it would not only have to acknowledge the politics, but also the theme that love cannot conquer all.
For me, Proulx’s original story and the film captured this (ahem) Flawlessly 🙂
BTW – there’s now an opera! *Borgnine rolls over in grave*
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/30/arts/music/lyrical-cowboys-in-love-on-stage.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0
“(not even if you call me stupid or uneducated or something; I honestly don’t mind, because if I am, I want to learn not to be)”
Haha not at all. You’ve explained quite extensively how you feel about the film. More than I ever had, but as you yourself pointed out, your complaints about the films are mostly based on taste and what you personally do or don’t find interesting and not particularly any “flaws” I can address. But thanks for reminding I’m way overdue to re-watch that film. I’ve been meaning to for ages.
Every time they get together, one is just nagging at why they aren’t together. It got quite redundant.
I have one question, do you like something like SCENES FROM A MARRIAGE?
I’m doing film therapy tonight O.O
(not even if you call me stupid or uneducated or something; I honestly don’t mind, because if I am, I want to learn not to be).
Haha not at all. You’ve explained quite extensively how you feel about the film. More than I ever had, but as you yourself pointed out, your complaints about the films are mostly based on taste and what you personally do or don’t find interesting and not particularly any “flaws” I can address. But thanks for reminding I’m way overdue to re-watch that film. I’ve been meaning to for ages.
Every time they get together, one is just nagging at why they aren’t together. It got quite redundant.
I have one question, do you like something like SCENES FROM A MARRIAGE?
I’m doing film therapy tonight O.O
“It might have been “groundbreaking” because it was Hollywood but the love story and chemistry was generic. I didn’t feel why these 2 specific people were so in love with each other. Every time they get together, one is just nagging at why they aren’t together. It got quite redundant.”
Yup, that’s what I thought as well, as already stated.
“It was even below par for standard Hollywood romance.”
That’s a bit harsh. 🙂 I didn’t think it was THAT bad. But, yeah, definitely nothing new, particularly convincing or incredibly moving or anything like that.
“I have one question, do you like something like THE LAST PICTURE SHOW?”
🙂 I think you already know the answer to that one. Liked it but didn’t love it and didn’t understand what the big deal was. I give it almost the exact same rating as Brokeback Mountain, across all 4 components of my rating system. BBM is ever so slightly ahead.
It would seem you’re somehow close to the truth about why I don’t love these types of movies… I have some suspicions too, after your inspired comparison, but don’t want to sound foolish, in case I’m wrong. So I’m just hoping you’ll tell me what you think it is – trust me: I won’t take it as any more than an assumption and, if I think it’s wrong, I won’t be upset in any way (not even if you call me stupid or uneducated or something; I honestly don’t mind, because if I am, I want to learn not to be).
But seriously, Claudiu. I’m not even the biggest BROKEBACK fan around here, but I like it a whole lot. Your criticisms are just to vague and superficial –you could be talking about BURLESQUE for all we know.
LOL. Very funny.
While I couldn’t stand Crash, I found BBM a big drag, and nothing much of a movie. So I wasn’t crying when it lost the BP Oscar.
It might have been “groundbreaking” because it was Hollywood but the love story and chemistry was generic. I didn’t feel why these 2 specific people were so in love with each other. Every time they get together, one is just nagging at why they aren’t together. It got quite redundant.
As anything in life for a minority, you have to excel much better than the mainstream in order to be recognized. And for BBM, the first major film to deal with same-sex love story and vying for the Oscars, it just wasn’t good enough. It was even below par for standard Hollywood romance.
Also, Bryce, please understand that I wasn’t saying I wanted to justify my not liking Brokeback Mountain as much as everybody else. I have no unanswered questions about why I do. What I asked was for somebody to tell me if I was missing something, if there was something just under the surface of that movie, that you can’t see by just paying attention. Some symbolism I’m not aware of. I don’t think I need to describe my understanding and reactions to every single aspect of it in order for somebody who has seen it and understands it to know if there’s something there that people often miss…
I have one question, do you like something like THE LAST PICTURE SHOW?
“What part of the “technical aspects” is objectionable, I’m curious?”
I knew somebody would be… 🙂
I did’t like the way the early part of their relationship (on the mountain) was handled. I thought it was unconvincing. I didn’t buy that they were really developing feelings for each-other, it felt forced. But I guess this still has more to do with the story (and dialogue – like I said, they didn’t strike me as interesting or particularly compassionate people in that part of the movie and that’s why I can’t grasp exactly why they liked each-other so much all of a sudden, or why I’m supposed to care what happens to them from that point on), so, if you want to call the technique flawless, go ahead! I can see how it might be that way for others, even though I, personally, do kind of hate, for example, the scene where Gyllenhaal’s character dances around – whatever that scene is trying to say, I don’t think it’s coming across too well. Plus I think it has some pacing issues, in my opinion – certain sequences (like the Mexico – or wherever it was – sequence, with Gyllenhaal, even though I get its importance) disrupt the overall tone, for me. Could have been done differently and I don’t really see why it wouldn’t have been better.
These are some of the reasons I don’t think the technique is flawless (for something to be flawless in my book, I have to not be able to find any kind of flaw whatsoever, almost no matter how long I think about it or how hard I try; there are only 3 movies I’ve ever given a perfect 10 to, and I have some doubts about those as well).
Please bear in mind that I’m not trying to say I’m right and others are wrong. This is just how I see it. I’m not trying to prove it’s a bad movie, like some people have done here before with other movies (and I don’t even think that), but only that I personally don’t find it to be great, despite its many qualities, and want to know if it’s just that, 100%, a personal perspective, or if there might be something deeper there (perhaps in the story itself) that I’m not seeing.
But, again, this is not the only problem I have with it. See below:
“And the story was great”
OK, but how so? What’s so special about what happens to these guys? What’s so special about the dialogue, the issues raised? What’s so special about them as characters, as people I’m watching for two hours? These were my questions.
Is it that love knows no bounds? If that’s the answer, then I get that, but, like I said, since I don’t completely buy (or care about) the characters and their motivations, to me this idea just doesn’t translate to the screen as well as it should.
“It’s not an idea it’s the execution said John Landis.”
That’s why I said to me a movie with an uninteresting, unoriginal story, no matter how mind-blowing and perfect it is in every other department, simply doesn’t feel complete. And here I have issues with the execution as well, utterly personal though they may be.
“very good movie, but flawed
We see this expression a lot. Anybody else find it to be a cop out of the most highfalutin kind? It’s right up there with “subtle” when describing an actors performance.
Don’t say “flawed” – be brave and precise.”
Of course, I agree. As you can see (from the fact that I did explain myself), I wasn’t trying to be evasive. Trust me, I know very well what kind of intense scrutiny I’ve just subjected myself to. 🙂 I knew what to expect from the word-go.
Forsook him and the horse he rode in on. 😛
Dallas Buyers Club – its actors are getting Oscars, in part, because the script is so very good/memorable…. great characters, moving character arcs, gripping dialog, wit.
my theory is that AH and Her have peaked.
Steve, yeah I love the “nuanced” trend as a synonym of “nothing was going on there”.
But seriously, Claudiu. I’m not even the biggest BROKEBACK fan around here, but I like it a whole lot. Your criticisms are just to vague and superficial –you could be talking about BURLESQUE for all we know.
very good movie, but flawed
We see this expression a lot. Anybody else find it to be a cop out of the most highfalutin kind? It’s right up there with “subtle” when describing an actors performance.
Don’t say “flawed” – be brave and precise.
The fifth song got disqualified!!!
Why are you guys responding to the plant? They didn’t teach Ohio politics at the errand boy college he went to
the technical aspects, which are all awesome (not perfect, but still…)
What part of the “technical aspects” is objectionable, I’m curious? And how do you separate something from what it does in a movie? And the story was great, not sure what you mean about concept? It’s not an idea it’s the execution said John Landis.
Other issues may have mattered more to voters in 2004, but you cannot deny that popular disapproval of same sex marriage was a factor that influenced Bush’s share of the popular vote.
http://www.apsanet.org/imgtest/psapr05lewis.pdf
Merciful heavens, Marshall, that analysis of the GOP strategy to motivate conservative evangelicals to vote is 39 pages long, not even counting all the mysterious charts and suspiciously scholary footnotes. Pish and pshaw, I say! It’s far more likely that some blowhard armchair observer from the UK can explain American behavior to us dumb Americans with a 200-year-old simple-minded hackneyed axiom about horses crossing streams. Harumph and piffle!
“After the Affleck snub and subsequent win of Argo last year that kind of meant all bets were off where patterns and stats are concerned.”
Last year didn’t disprove the stats. Two powerful stats collided (director snub vs. winning DGA+PGA+SAG+Globe+BFCA), one with a 90-something % record, the other with a 100% record (but significantly fewer – but still enough for relevance – past occurrences). Not surprisingly (neither statistically, nor general opinion-wise), the 100% stat won. We couldn’t be sure it would, but it was clearly the more logical outcome.
The stats still stand!…
“Not saying that the split is definitely going to happen. But insisting that it won’t happen is as stubborn as insisting that it will happen.”
Exactly!
“So I don’t buy that “Gravity” is simply a populist favorite going against a more difficult dividing film. They are both pretty minimalist and spare in their story-of-survival story arcs. They don’t provide joy-to-my-soul tears-of-happiness endings. But they are both widely recognized as historic achievements. (In fact, I think “Gravity” is even more divisive than “12 Years””
That’s what I’m thinking too. Gravity certainly doesn’t seem like the kind of picture the Academy would go gaga over either…
“Crash is not a bad movie. Paul Haggis’s direction is fine, precise. Editing is good. Cinematography is marvellous. Matt Dillon’s acting is first class. It is better than the Artist or Argo, imho.”
I’m of the exact same opinion.
“I think the problem is it won in a very strong, may be the strongest BP lineup of the decade – Brokeback, Munich, GNGL, Capote. All better than Crash..!!””
But here I’m of the exact OPPOSITE opinion. (may be the WEAKEST BP lineup, all WORSE than Crash) How different people can be!… 🙂
Brokeback is a beautifully made movie (I’ve watched it again, recently, to see if it improved for me – it did a little, but not significantly) but it’s also flawed, has characters that, to me, are just uninteresting, unremarkable people who I can barely connect with at all, and a story that, while moving, in places, is just altogether not that interesting. I guess it too is a character study (not a very deep one, though, unless there’s something I’m missing), and I simply don’t care about the characters. I get that there’s a message about repression as well, I just don’t really “feel” it.
So yeah, I guess I’m one of THOSE 🙂 who don’t GET why Brokeback is supposed to be so awesome and not just a beautifully told but, overall, average and rather forgettable story. People never bother to try and explain to me what I’m missing when I write stuff like this about a beloved movie (even though I’ve always expressed my interest in knowing whether it’s just a personal taste thing or if it’s actually something deeper within the story that I simply missed), so I guess I shouldn’t even bother to ask this time…
I also get the reasons people hate Crash (even though I do think that, because it beat BBM, the extent to which it was manipulative/contrived is now being exaggerated – it was, perhaps, a bit, but not enough to ruin it, at least for me). They’re valid complaints. I don’t even rate it that highly myself – a good, perhaps even very good movie, but flawed and certainly not outstanding in any way. But I still enjoyed watching it and found it quite interesting. The things people dislike about it are just not things that bother me that much in general, when they’re not too obvious or fake.
So, yeah, I’m hoping there won’t be 50 responses now by people detailing exactly why they hate Crash. I get it and already know the arguments, having been around the awards races for a while now. I would, however, be quite interested in knowing whether or not I, in fact, missed something more profound about Brokeback Mountain and what it has to say, since I’ve already watched it multiple times now, always struggling to see what was so fantastic about it, apart from the direction, acting, score etc. – the technical aspects, which are all awesome (not perfect, but still…), I agree, but which, for me, are never enough to make a good movie great, unless the story/concept is also great.
I thought Argo was an excellent script. It had great dialogue and mixed elements of political thriller, Hollywood satire, and old-fashioned biopic exceptionally well. I have no problem with it winning.
SallyinChicago – The Oscars are the first week of March. There are still the BAFTAs and Oscar voting begins right after those awards are announced.
Ryan Adams January 29, 2014 at 11:38 am
In 2004 a nincompoop like George W Bush became president because anti-gay marriage amendments in dozens of states on election day brought the homophobes out of the woodwork.
I know it’s a reason some people are tired of hearing about, but if homophobia can swing a presidential election in 2004 then it’s silly to think homophobia can’t swing the Oscars a year later.
========================================
You should just stick to the subject matter that you actually know something about ,like say, movies ….George Bush was re-elected because the US was heavily involved in a war in the Middle East and American voters ”don’t change horses when they are crossing a river ”…it was the gravitas of the Iraq war that won him re-election and not some silly homophodes…you sound like some mixed up college kid
the US was heavily involved in a war in the Middle East and American voters ”don’t change horses when they are crossing a river ”…
Except when they do. Have you heard about Vietnam? Have you heard about the the hostages in Iran?
Because trust me, “Americans” were not happy that Bush lied us into Iraq.
Stick to what you claim know: guessing what the BAFTAs might do.
USA Today: Nov. 4, 2004
The New York Times, Nov 4, 2004
I would hardly call Crash a crowd pleaser. It was not a huge success at the box office. And it got mixed reviews. It was not better than the other four movies it was up against. It won best picture because people were voting against Brokeback. And it’s possible Crash won by a very slim margin. We’ll never know. Crash winning best picture certainly didn’t help Paul Haggis’s career very much. He’s yet to work on a very good film again, which is a shame. Meanwhile Ang Lee made Life of Pi.
Re Writers Guild – I’m with Sasha – American Hustle (Her – the spoiler) and Wolf of Wall Street. I would prefer Her to win.
Jerry and Eric, yes and yes.
Not saying that the split is definitely going to happen. But insisting that it won’t happen is as stubborn as insisting that it will happen.
“This year, the supposed frontrunner for Best Picture, according to pundits, is 12 Years a Slave — they falsely believe that the Academy is going to split the awards giving Gravity director and 12 Years picture. I will be stunned if that happens as it’s never happened before. Best Picture, in a split vote scenario, has always gone to the film voters “like” (Crash, Shakespeare in Love, Chariots of Fire, Gladiator) while director goes to the more somber, serious film – Brokeback Mountain, Traffic, The Pianist, Reds, and on and on it goes.”
I dunno. I still think it’s possible for the 1967 scenario to play out where Mike Nichols won Best Director for the popular, feel-good “The Graduate” and then the racially-driven, serious social commentary “In the Heat of the Night” won for Best Picture.
Is this the LAST awards? If it is, then we have about 3 weeks to go for the Oscars, right? Too long a wait.
“2005 – Paul Haggis
2002 – Rob Marshall
1989 – Bruce Beresford
1981 – Hugh Hudson
1956 – Michael Anderson
1952 – Cecil B DeMille
– nor did they really deserve to win Best Director. Some of them only have a single good movie to their name, yes?”
With the bulk of that list, yes, I agree with you Ryan, and you did state SOME, I grimaced at the Bruce Beresford mention. He has directed many fine films certainly he was no one hit wonder or fluke. I was ‘Oscar watching’ in 1989 when the headlines screamed that Miss Daisy must have directed herself. I believe that Bruce has made many better films than that one. Breaker Morant, The Getting of Wisdom, Don’s Party, The Fringe Dwellers and his later films Tender Mercies, Paradise Road.
daveinprogress, that’s why I tried to be careful to say “Some of them…”
no, I agree with you. Again I really made an effort to account for directors who were “relatively unknown… outsiders…” … especially when compared to Oliver Stone.
but you’re right. it’s wrong to say all those overlooked directors are equally unpromising. I didn’t mean to imply that by grouping them together.
The thing about this year is.
At first glance, it looks like there’s “the movie they like” versus “the movie they respect,” and indeed if this were the case, then we should not be deceived and should predict that “the movie they like” will win BP and BD. Sasha is arguing this is “Gravity”. However, I do not think that is the case. I think “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” are *both* “the movie they respect”. I do not think “Gravity” has the I-personally-love-it factor like “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago,” “Crash,” or “Argo.” (There is not enough love for “American Hustle” to be that movie either.)
So I don’t buy that “Gravity” is simply a populist favorite going against a more difficult dividing film. They are both pretty minimalist and spare in their story-of-survival story arcs. They don’t provide joy-to-my-soul tears-of-happiness endings. But they are both widely recognized as historic achievements. (In fact, I think “Gravity” is even more divisive than “12 Years”; and “12 Years” is actually about *people* with *actors*, which tends to have an edge with the Oscars historically.)
So I think this is a year where you have two “Million Dollar Baby’s,” two “No Country for Old Men’s.” One is a director’s feat with a director that you cannot *but* award (like Spielberg’s feat with “Saving Private Ryan”). The other is a fuller “picture,” a movie that will go down in history, the “movie they respect” Best Picture winner.
I’m going to make predictions backstage using the form provided. But for now: my thought on the Original Screenplay category.
I’d like to see American Hustle win WGA writing. Because that means, to me, its chance at Oscar in the respective writing category will most likely double, more or less.
Anyway, competing in this year’s WGA Original, as well as Oscar’s for that matter, to me, each contender has its own interesting narrative. While I believe, it makes more sense to keep an eye on #HUSTLE# and #HER#, one just can’t overlook the rest of the pack.
#Blue Jasmine#: simply put, it’s Woody Allen, dudes . . . . Allen’s always got a winning shot at Writing (at least in my book) – that’s how I see it (to begin with). And I honestly think that he’s still got a good chance at beating the two aforementioned, supposed frontrunners.
#Nebraska#, as well as #Dallas#, also has its own supportive story to play depending upon the way you look at it. (I have yet to see both films so I can’t really get into detail.)
I’m pretty excited for this year’s Original Screenplay competition given both categories. I’m hoping, Hustle’s writing shall prevail but also expecting an upset particularly from Her or the beautiful Jasmine.
Sidenote: Thanks for bringing back the square avatar-frame. My avatar’s Feng Shui looks robust and healthy once again. xD [No more porthole, eh? lol]
Jorge,
I’m not disagreeing with Sasha’s split year point. Just have a problem using Crash/BBM as an example.
I could easily say that Crash is a movie about racism, similar to 12YAS. And the more popular BBM is a simplistic weepy romance, similar to the popular Gravity which is a simplistic space adventure.
So the split is possible.
(So sorry for the typos in the previous post I’m having some problems viewing the website- apologies)
You may be being somewhat nitpicky. I think the overall point is that in split years the easier movie to vote for gets BP and tbat what many including myself are predicting is not what has happened.
I don’t think one can realy refute the point that Sasha makes from a historical perspective.
I still disagree that the history means it can’t happen- because as we see year after year history is broken- but Sasha has a point that needs to be addresses if you’re gonna predict a split with slave on top
I agree, Jorge, re 12YAS/BBM analogy. But what I have a hard time swallowing is the Crash/Gravity analogy. That is why I think it’s a “sloppy” analogy.
The whole 12YAS/Gravity similarity to BBM/Crash is coarse at best.
Alan- I quite agree with you re: the point that Crash/BB doesn’t fit into the popular vs. dark analogy — but here is what does apply from that year:
BBM dealt with a more controversial, real subject in an honest and straightforward way. It wasn’t white washed by any means, like Crash’s silly dealing of racism was.
In that sense, 12YAS is like BBM- it deals with a topic that people don’t necessarily want to talk about and does so honestly and directly, with reaffirming and refreshing (not to mention needed) frankness.
Not that I think Crash and Gravity can be mentioned in the same breath– one is a piece of shit and the other is innovative and groundbreaking — but I think the BBM/12YAS analogy is pretty solid based on how they approach their themes and make (certain, silly) people uncomfortable
“I respect your opinion on “Gravity”. I was speaking from a general consensus take of that movie. It is a special effects driven thriller. The emotional Sandra Bullock factor is quite secondary to the film’s aura and identity.”
What consensus is this? You can only speak for yourself. Certainly not from everything I’ve read on the film.
Gravity was the most emotionally resonant film of 2013 for me. Sandy goes from aloof indifference, to despair and hopelessness in isolation, to rebirth. Simple, yes, but still a complete emotional arc.
Excellent, Marshall. Such psychological depth happening in the middle of the impetus of such a practical, trepidant, and vertiginous crisis is a miracle of filmmaking, and a testament to the humanity of GRAVITY.
Marshall, you can’t disagree with facts. Look at the b.o. office numbers, not from your memory of “buzz”.
And I’m emphatically stating that the box office numbers DO NOT tell the whole story regarding Crash. If Crash was released during prime awards season like Brokeback in December instead of April, it would’ve made 100M easily.
Vily- you just described one of my ideal oscar night scenarios (and fears)
Amen to that
Leo has to follow the route of McConaughey, I think. Physical transformation + dramatic subject matter.
All year I’ve watched in amusement as this site has downplayed Before Midnight’s chances. It was as low as #9 on the sidebar for months despite consistently collecting wins on the critics awards circuit. It is so winning the WGA this week. 🙂
Marshall, you can’t disagree with facts. Look at the b.o. office numbers, not from your memory of “buzz”.
And what does it matter what it does since it won BP. What matters is how it was doing during its year and awards season.
I respect your opinion on “Gravity”. I was speaking from a general consensus take of that movie. It is a special effects driven thriller. The emotional Sandra Bullock factor is quite secondary to the film’s aura and identity.
Look, as long as either Gravity or 12 Years a Slave wins, history will be made one way or another. I just hope the Academy won’t go “the hell with these two” and go the American Hustle route… That will be poor..
I think that a split would be fair because both McQueen and Cuaron win the Oscars and everybody goes home happy!
I would go even a step further and predict a DiCaprio WIN for the Wolf of Wall Street but let’s wait and see! It’s not out if the question either! 🙂
Crash is not a bad movie. Paul Haggis’s direction is fine, precise. Editing is good. Cinematography is marvellous. Matt Dillon’s acting is first class. It is better than the Artist or Argo, imho.
I think the problem is it won in a very strong, may be the strongest BP lineup of the decade – Brokeback, Munich, GNGL, Capote. All better than Crash..!!
Yeah, I’m going to disagree Alan. I remember distinctly Crash already had a lot of buzz in the summer of 2005. My university even had a number of forums and lectures talking about Crash and the state of race relations directed at incoming freshman, in order to foster diversity discussion.
A lot of people I know that are ordinary movie watchers *loved* Crash, and quite a few of them did not/could not understand the praise behind Brokeback Mountain. Crash’s BP win certainly elevated its profile (though it’s not all positive, as it’s generally agreed that is is among the worst BP winners ever)), but I don’t believe at all that it wouldn’t be popular if it hadn’t won Best Picture.
And I disagree with your analysis on Gravity as well. Gravity was the most emotionally resonant film of 2013 for me. Sandy goes from aloof indifference, to despair and hopelessness in isolation, to rebirth. Simple, yes, but still a complete emotional arc.
Original Screenplay: Should win: Her , Will win: Her
Adapted Screenplay: Should win: Before Midnight , Will win: TWOWS
Marshall,
Crash is the success it is today because it won BP. Without it, it would have gone into obscurity, or certainly not as successful as BBM.
As for BBM’s complexity, AMPAS’s members as a whole are not that deep. it’s either a movie is easy to get and emotionally fulfilling or it isn’t.
On another note, I have a hard time swallowing this idea that Gravity is a “beloved” film. In order to be labeled as “beloved”, it has to be an emotionally complete film. At the end of the day, it’s just an effective escape thriller. You might get teary for a second in the middle of the movie when Sandy cried, but by the end of the movie you’re pretty much exhausted by the rollercoaster.
BBM made more money than Crash in its initial theatrical run, yes. But as I stated, Crash has been the most popular Netflix rental for years after the Oscars. Meanwhile, Crash is in twice as many Blu-ray libraries as Brokeback Mountain on Blu-ray.com. Not too difficult to know that Crash is much more of a populist film than Brokeback.
As for narrative simplicity, yes Brokeback is on its surface a melodramatic romance with a singular thread, whereas Crash juggles multiple threads. But there’s a lot more going on underneath with Brokeback – Annie Proulx wrote quite the subversion of Western iconography and norms, and it was dutifully maintained and expanded upon by no other than Larry McMurtry.
I am not even ruling out a crazy tie for Best Picture.
AMPAS came out after the PGA tie and state that a BP tie *will not happen* – there are numerous tie-breakers in place.
Sasha,
You can’t assume that I didn’t live through the Crash/BBM year. I’m not revising history.
Is it not true that BBM made more money than Crash? Is it not a more traditional kind of movie, narratively? BBM is not necessarily a more “difficult” movie, as in hard to get. It’s rather a simple story. A tear-jerker and more emotionally complete than Crash was. It’s whether you want accept its theme or you don’t.
I don’t disagree completely with what you said, but in this case I think you cram your opinion into a piece of evidence.
In 2004 a nincompoop like George W Bush became president because anti-gay marriage amendments in dozens of states on election day brought the homophobes out of the woodwork.
I know it’s a reason some people are tired of hearing about, but if homophobia can swing a presidential election in 2004 then it’s silly to think homophobia can’t swing the Oscars a year later.
It’s just as silly to squawk with a counter-argument about “liberal Hollywood” — Hollywood makes movies for Middle America, not for West Hollywood.
I tend to agree with Ryan on this one. Yes, history tends to show different. But this year will be crazy. I am not even ruling out a crazy tie for Best Picture. To me, the scales in the Best Pictures race are dead even. The BAFTA will vote for 12 Years A Slave but I still see Cuaron winning there as well.
Will see what happens.
Yes, the whole Crash/Brokeback comparison by Sasha is quite sloppy.
Ugh, repressed memories of Black Sunday 2006 rearing their ugly head again…
Brokeback may have had made more money in theaters, but Crash was by far the more accessible crowd pleaser. I remember distinctly my university dorm hall (which had quite a contingent of avid movie watchers) preferred Crash over Brokeback by like a 3:1 margin. And there were a lot of cheers when Crash upset that night. Which was additional salt in the wound because I ended up winning the dorm’s Oscar pool (predicting a Brokeback sweep :-/).
Even long after the Oscars, Crash was still in Netflix’s Top 2 most rented movies as recently as 2011. Brokeback may still be adored and revered by many, but among typical moviegoers (muggles), to me there’s no question Crash was the more popular film, and still is.
Its absolutely annoying that the very best episode Breaking Bad has ever produced has been ignored by the DGA and WGA.
JamDenTel, you say Gravity has no substance? Okay fine, I get that since to me Gravity is an “individual” experience, everyone experiences something different depending on how you view space, being alone, being cold. The script may not have presented amazing dialogue but I felt something very transcendent watching Gravity. I felt my childhood, my sense of wonderment, my greatest fear, almost everything that brought me to studying astronomy in middle school obsessively. I felt the answers to my questions, both literal and philosophical, like “why should we go into space?” So, you see, depending on what you feel when you look up at the night sky is what you’ll feel for a lot of the movie. And I felt surrounded by the idea of infinity, smallness, and life. That’s all the substance I took away from Gravity.
I mean, how could you not enjoy a conversation like this?!
*SPOILER*
Jordan Belfort: I heard some stupid shit. I… I didn’t even want to bring it up. It’s just… stupid.
Donnie Azoff: Shit with me?
Jordan Belfort: You know, just… people say shit. I don’t even know. I don’t even listen to it half the time.
Donnie Azoff: What do they say?
Jordan Belfort: Shit about you and your cousin or something like that. I don’t even listen to it. It doesn’t even…
Donnie Azoff: No… it’s not like that. It’s not like that.
Jordan Belfort: You know what I mean? Like you married your cousin or some stupid shit, you know?
Donnie Azoff: Yeah, my wife… yeah, my wife is my cousin or whatever. But it’s not like what you think or whatever, you know…
Jordan Belfort: Is she like a… first cousin, or is she…
Donnie Azoff: Yeah, no. She… you know, her… her father is the… is the brother of my mom.
Jordan Belfort: Mhm.
Donnie Azoff: It’s not like… Look. We grew up together, and she grew up hot, you know. She fuckin’ grew up hot and all of my friends were trying to fuck her, you know, and I wasn’t… I’m not gonna let someone, you know, one of these assholes fuck my cousin. So I, you know, used the cousin thing as like… like an in with her. I’m not gonna let someone else fuck my cousin, you know? If anyone is gonna fuck my cousin it’s gonna be me, out of… out of respect, you know?
Jordan Belfort: No, I get it, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, you’re not afraid of like the whole kid thing, right? Like the whole…
Donnie Azoff: What, if the kid’s retarded?
Jordan Belfort: Yeah.
Donnie Azoff: No, we have two kids.
Jordan Belfort: And they’re… I mean, I don’t want to get personal or anything, but are they okay?
Donnie Azoff: No, they’re not retarded or anything like that…
Jordan Belfort: But there’s a big chance, right? The whole…
Donnie Azoff: Yeah, there’s like a 60 percent, you know… 60, 65 percent chance the kid’s gonna be fuckin’ retarded or whatever…
Jordan Belfort: That’d scare the shit out of me, buddy.
Donnie Azoff: Look, man… a lot of having a kid or whatever takes risk, whether you’re fuckin’ cousins or not, you know…
Jordan Belfort: What if… what if you… I mean, what if something like that happened?
Donnie Azoff: Well, basically, you know, if the kid was retarded I would… I would, you know, drive it up to the country and just like, you know, open the door and let it… say “You’re free now!” You know? Like, “Run free!” You know?
My predictions:
Original Screenplay – Her (Spike Jonze)
Adapted Screenplay – The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
And these are the same two I would like to see win. For me it would be a win-win.
I loved Crash when I first saw it. But I remember sitting in my dorm room and fuming…just fuming…when Crash won. It’s not as if Good Night and Good Luck, or even Capote won. But Crash. It was the first time I actually felt true disbelief when the years best film could really be overlooked.
The last two years the Academy picked one fine script (THE DESCENDANTS, DJANGO UNCHAINED) and one awful script (MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, ARGO). This year, they have the opportunity to award two good scripts (HER, 12 YEARS A SLAVE/THE WOLF OF WALL STREET), and it’ll break my heart if they go with AMERICAN HUSTLE or DALLAS BUYERS CLUB for Original. Adapted, though, is exceptionally strong.
Oh, and I still hold that the split will happen. Though I question how anyone could consider GRAVITY a “beloved” film, since it has virtually no substance.
Steve50, plenty of movies based on a true story will have some inaccuracies. Jonah Hill’s character in Moneyball , if I remember correctly, was a composite of 2 characters. Things are added and changed for dramatic effect. Jared Leto did such an amazing job that I fully believed Rayon to be real, until I found out he wasn’t just minutes ago.
I agree with Murtaza and Alan re: Brokeback/Crash. And I’ll add, that it wasn’t that the Academy liked Crash more, it was that it liked Brokeback less, because of the blatant spoken homophobia among many of its members who admitted they wouldn’t even watch it. To date, Brokeback is the only movie that lost the Best Picture Oscar while winning the Producers Writers and Directors Guild awards (a la Gravity winning PGA/DGA, and WGA now in discussion). Winning BAFTA, the Globe, NY, LA, Broadcast and 20something other Crix prizes didn’t help either, nor did having the most nominations.
I hope the Academy doesn’t pull the same nonsense and refuse to watch 12 Years a Slave too, because it makes them uncomfortable. Just two weeks ago I was out with an older Academy member (and multiple winner), a very nice guy. He said he has “seen everything”, and his favorite films of the year were Philomena and Rush. I asked him what he thougth of 12 Years a Slave. He said, “oh, I can’t watch that. I’ve heard its great but too painful”. Ugh. I tried to talk him into seeing it, maybe he did, maybe he didn’t, but how can one take seriously a voting body that won’t even watch all its Best Picture nominees?? And one that gave metacritic 69 Crash – which is more than it deserved – the Best Picture prize over masterpiece Brokeback, and for all the wrong reasons? And a group that snubbed Citizen Kane, Vertigo, The Searchers, 2001, Some Like It Hot, Raging Bull, etc etc etc.????
ANIMAL KINGDOM helmer David Michod’s THE ROVER first teaser! Robert Pattinson seems to be giving one of the noteworthy performances of 2014!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7C95zhu7yA
Ryan – I remember groaning audibly by the time that line was spoken for a second time.
It is literally in every cheesy “how to become a good writer for idiots” do it yourself guide that you should come up with a catchy phrase to stick in people’s minds. I know because I’ve read every such book, having no innate writing talent.
I guess so did Chris Theriot
Yes, the whole Crash/Brokeback comparison by Sasha is quite sloppy. Crash was about an uncomfortable topic of racism (though treated quite in a pedestrian way). Brokeback was essentially a tear jerker romance (albeit between 2 men). Brokeback was a much more successful movie financially. The parallel between them and Gravity/12YAS just doesn’t sit right.
Yes, the whole Crash/Brokeback comparison by Sasha is quite sloppy.
Bullshit. I lived through it and I remember how people were talking about the two movies. Anyone who lived through it remembers. Actors went for Crash – most people, even now, ordinary average people will say they preferred Crash. Sorry but it’s true. Brokeback was the much more ambitious, more more difficult sell. You can’t revise history to those of us who remember it. Most of the time voters will not vote for what they “should” vote for – they never do, unless they are united Picture and Director together like ROTK or The Hurt Locker. Or Platoon or Schindler’s List and on and on it goes. When there is a split, the popular general audience crowd pleaser gets the win. If pundits turn out to be right about 12 Years this will be a first.
I’m not trying to argue — but just to offer an alternative explanation here…
on the face of it, I’d agree that this is true.
But here’s the reason why I think this sometimes happens: Once every few years a popular general audience crowd pleaser catches fire with audiences. But these movies are often directed almost accidentally by nobodies or notorious cornballs, or else relatively unknown flash-in-the-pan, unfamiliar outsiders, or otherwise unproven directors.
So in those cases — and I can provide examples on request — the newcomer director out-of-nowhere gets passed over in favor of a more distinguished legendary director (who, not surprisingly, has directed a far more serious and difficult film that’s a tough sit for general audiences)
So yes, I do agree there seems to be a correlation between the more ‘entertaining’ movie winning over the more ‘serious’ one.
But I’m just saying:
Best Picture is an award for the MOVIE.
Best Director is an award for the MAN behind the movie.
these guys who directed Best Picture flukes were never going to win Best Director against the more formidable legendary directors who beat them:
2005 – Paul Haggis
2002 – Rob Marshall
1989 – Bruce Beresford
1981 – Hugh Hudson
1956 – Michael Anderson
1952 – Cecil B DeMille
— nor did they really deserve to win Best Director. Some of them only have a single good movie to their name, yes?
(Were the movies that won Best Picture without a Best Director crowd-pleasing movies? Yes — because with a good cast and zippy script, any b-list hack can churn out a sentimental formulaic crowd-pleaser. Alan Smithee could’ve directed Driving Miss Daisy to the Best Picture Piggly-Wiggly).
I maintain that the situation is different this year, because Alfonso Cuaron is no fluke.
Sasha says, “You also have to watch out for Dallas Buyers Club,” and I believe this to be true. I think is has a better chance of toppling AH than the best on the list, Her.
My main issue with that film, as it was for Argo, are the inaccuracies, such as the fact that Woodruff was not a rodeo rider and neither the Garner nor Leto characters existed but were made-up to propel and simplify the story.
Here’s the Slate article by Aisha Harris from sometime back.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2013/11/01/dallas_buyers_club_true_story_fact_and_fiction_in_the_matthew_mcconaughey.html?wpisrc=burger_bar
Nothing against artistic licence, but…. Why this hasn’t been more public is a mystery.
wasn’t Crash serious???? i think it had more important issue of racism than homosexuality to discuss. though brokeback was of course better film..
tony kushner’s screenplay was a high potency sleeping pill, 20 minutes and zzzzzzzzzzzz. thank god he lost both WGA and Oscar.
Plus, think about it. The number of Oscar does not tell whether the movie is better than the other. As long as it wins the BIG one! Godfather won Just 3 Oscars and is regarded as one of the top 5 greatest movies of all time. 😉
God, I hope your alternative predictions come true, Sasha. Her and Before Midnight all the way!
vily, kane,
methinks the backlash would mostly consist of Sasha and a couple disgruntled bloggers, PR and studio execs… the vast majority of Americans probably won’t care that much, they might even prefer to see Gravity win since chances are much higher they will actually have seen that film.
I like that metaphor – the cake and the baker.
You mean to tell me “argofuck yourself”
Isn’t brilliant screenwriting?
Say it isn’t so!!!
To be fair, you don’t get the full effect of the brilliance until after you repeat it over and over and over throughout the movie.
Vily, I don’t think the backlash would be because the Brits chose 12 Years over the academy, it’d be because the academy just didn’t choose 12 Years period. Also I think people are underestimating 12 Years’ chance of winning production design.
Also, Sasha, Crash won 3 Oscars the year it won. I know that year and this year is apples and oranges but 3 wins including picture is not unheard of. I still firmly believe (with much nervousness mind you) that 12 Years takes the cake, maybe not the baker like Gravity will, but the oh so giant cake.
It would be utter disgrace if 12 Years A Slave only wins Best Supporting Actress. I think that it’s definitely winning Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress. The BAFTA will tell the whole story. If they also split – 12 Years a Slave for Pucture and Cuaron for Director – then the split is happening. If McQueen wins at BAFTA, then he might upset at the Oscars too. Or Gravity might win at the BAFTA and then it’s over for 12 Years a Slave. I have a strong suspicion that 12 Years a Slave will win at BAFTA putting immense pressure on the Academy to vote for it as well.
Just imagine the Brits embracing a movie about a piece of American History – Slavery and the Americans not doing the same. The backlash will be huge!!!
Thanks, but no Banks = Epic cred Fail for WGA!