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Ace Eddie Awards Preview and Predictions

Tonight’s Ace Eddie awards (Editors Guild) will test the power of Gravity – does it have massive pull to continue to dominate this awards season? That will show up tonight when the editors hand out their prize.  DGA + Eddie is a powerful combination, as is SAG ensemble + Eddie if American Hustle wins in the comedy category.   Gravity is expected to win tonight – should any other film win in the drama department that could mean Best Picture really is up in the air.

But when was the last time a film won Best Picture without a screenplay or a SAG ensemble nod?  It has never happened in the history of the Screen Actors Guild, going back to 1995.  The only film to win Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nod was Braveheart.  These are some of the ways a Gravity win would mark a significant break with history where stats are concerned.  Last year’s Argo win broke one of the biggest stats — looking back over the last few years The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo’s editing win at the Oscars was one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen, meaning, in a year with nine nominees and a preferential ballot, the film that wins editing wasn’t even nominated for Picture.

But let’s look at a few scenarios from most likely to least likely.

1. American Hustle and Gravity win.  Gravity already has 1/2 the PGA and the DGA.  It was not nominated for a WGA or an Oscar for writing – significant in and of itself. What does it mean if a movie’s writing is that undervalued?  For a Best Picture frontrunner not to have a screenplay nomination is significant, make no mistake. It’s the tech folks, though, that could push Gravity to the win.  Remember, Best Picture is almost always determined by the DGA except in the rare case of split years, which are nearly impossible to predict. Everyone seems to agree that American Hustle’s SAG win showed that the actors loved the movie, which they do. We have not seen any other major guild support. That could all change tonight. Armed with a Screenplay nomination at the Oscars, an Eddie and SAG ensemble win, American Hustle sets itself up to be the surprise spoiler.

2. Gravity does not win editing, some other films does, like Captain Phillips for instance. Or Her.  That will show love for a film but will not impact the Best Picture race at all except to say that this is more evidence of it being wide open.  Gravity needs this win. Can it still win Best Picture without it? Sure. But it is less likely, given the kind of movie that it is — heavy on the tech side of things.  Captain Phillips has dazzling, memorable editing, which could give it the win.

3. 12 Years a Slave wins.  That would be the most significant and unexpected thing to happen.  You can expect this not to happen, barring some off season Christmas miracle.  12 Years is not the kind of movie editors will vote for. Look at their history. They like the crowd pleasers, the consensus votes, which is why they can often predict Best Picture so well.  Right now, there are around 6,000 voting members of the Eddie, making them almost the exact same number as the Academy.  They do not use the preferential ballot, however.  A win for 12 Years would show broad industry support for a struggling underdog.  They would choose to vote for the film even if it wasn’t their favorite because they would feel like making history – a win for 12 Years would make it the first film to win the Ace that was directed and written by black filmmakers.  It has never happened, and likely never will in my lifetime.

I feel like tonight’s win for Gravity is as inevitable as its eventual Best Picture win.  But who knows, right?

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):

12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker <—I would shit my pants.
Captain Phillips, Chris Rouse, A.C.E. <—spoiler
Gravity, Alfonso Cuarón & Mark Sanger <—predicted winner
Her, Eric Zumbrunnen, A.C.E. & Jeff Buchanan
Saving Mr. Banks, Mark Livolsi, A.C.E.

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):
American Hustle, Jay Cassidy, A.C.E., Crispin Struthers & Alan Baumgarten, A.C.E. <–predicted winner
August: Osage County, Stephen Mirrione, A.C.E.
Inside Llewyn Davis, Roderick Jaynes
Nebraska, Kevin Tent, A.C.E.
The Wolf of Wall Street, Thelma Schoonmaker, A.C.E. <—spoiler

BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Despicable Me 2, Gregory Perler, A.C.E
Frozen, Jeff Draheim <—predicted winner
Monsters University, Greg Snyder

BEST EDITED DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE):
20 Feet from Stardom, Douglas Blush, Kevin Klauber & Jason Ze <–predicted winner
Blackfish, Eli Despres
Tim’s Vermeer, Patrick Sheffield

The Ace Eddies
Won Ace | Won Oscar

2013

12 Years a Slave 12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips Captain Phillips
Gravity Gravity
Her Dallas Buyers Club
Saving Mr. Banks
American Hustle American Hustle
August: Osage County
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street

2012

Argo+ Argo+
Life of Pi* Life of Pi*
Lincoln* Lincoln*
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty* Zero Dark Thirty*
Silver Linings Playbook* Silver Linings Playbook*
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables*
Moonrise Kingdom
Ted

2011

The Descendants The Descendants*
Hugo Hugo*
Moneyball Moneyball*
War Horse The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Artist  The Artist+
Young Adult
Midnight in Paris
Bridesmaids
My Week with Marilyn

2010

The Social Network The Social Network*
The King’s Speech The King’s Speech+
Black Swan Black Swan*
Inception* 127 Hours*
The Fighter The Fighter*
Alice in Wonderland
Easy A
The Kids Are All Right*
Made in Dagenam
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World

2009

The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker+
Avatar Avatar*
District 9 District 9*
Star Trek Inglourious Basterds*
Up in the Air* Precious+
The Hangover
500 Days of Summer
A Serious Man*
It’s Complicated
Julia & Julia

2008

Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire+
Milk Milk*
Benjamin Button Benjamin Button*
Frost/Nixon Frost/Nixon*
The Dark Knight The Dark Knight
Wall-E
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Tropic Thunder
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

2007

The Bourne Ultimatum The Bourne Ultimatum
Into the Wild Into the Wild
Michael Clayton* Diving Bell
No Country for Old Men* No Country for Old Men+
There Will Be Blood* There Will Be Blood*
Hairspray
Juno*
Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End
Ratatouille
Sweeney Todd

2006

Babel* Babel*
Casino Royale Children of Men
The Departed* The Departed+
The Queen* Blood Diamond
United 93 United 93
Thank You for Smoking
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine*
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

2005

Brokeback Mountain* Cinderella Man
The Constant Gardener The Constant Gardener
Crash+ Crash+
Good Night, and Good Luck*
Munich* Munich*
Charlie and The Chocolate Factory
The Family Stone
Pride & Prejudice
Wedding Crashers
Walk the Line Walk the Line

2004

Collateral Collateral
Finding Neverland* Finding Neverland*
Kill Bill Vol. 2
Kinsey
Million Dollar Baby* Million Dollar Baby+
The Aviator * The Aviator*
De-Lovely
Eternal Sunshine
The Incredibles
Ray* Ray*
Sideways*

2003

Cold Mountain Cold Mountain
Master and Commander* Master and Commander*
Mystic River* City of God
The Return of the King+ The Return of the King+
Seabiscuit* Seabiscuit*
(COMEDY OR MUSICAL):
Bend It Like Beckham
Finding Nemo
Lost in Translation*
Pirates of the Caribbean
School of Rock

2002

The Hours* The Hours*
Gangs of New York* Gangs of New York*
About Schmidt
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Lord of the Rings: Two Towers *
Minority Report The Pianist*
(COMEDY OR MUSICAL):
About a Boy
Adaptation
My Big Fat Greek Wedding
Chicago+ Chicago+
Punch-Drunk Love

2001

A Beautiful Mind + A Beautiful Mind+
Black Hawk Down Black
Hawk Down
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s
Stone
The Lord of the Rings: The
Fellowship of the Ring*
Lord of the Rings*
Memento Memento
(COMEDY
OR MUSICAL):
Gosford Park *
Amelie
Monsters, Inc.
Moulin
Rouge! *
Moulin Rouge*
The Royal Tenenbaums
Shrek

2000

Billy Elliot Wonder Boys
Cast Away
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon*
Gladiator+ Gladiator+
Traffic* Traffic*
Film Editing – Musical or Comedy
Almost Famous Almost Famous
Best In Show
Chocolat *
O Brother, Where Art Thou?
Shanghai Noon

1999

American Beauty + American Beauty*
The Insider* The Insider*
The Matrix The Matrix
The Sixth Sense * The Sixth Sense*
The Talented Mr. Ripley The Cider House Rules*
Film Editing – Musical or Comedy
Analyze This
Being John Malkovich
Election
Man On the Moon
Run Lola Run

1998

Out Of Sight Out Of Sight
Shakespeare In Love + Shakespeare In Love+
The Thin Red Line * The Thin Red Line*
Saving Private Ryan * Saving Private Ryan*
The Horse Whisperer Life Is Beautiful*

1997

Air Force One Air Force One
As Good As It Gets * As Good As It Gets*
Good Will Hunting * Good Will Hunting*
L. A. Confidential * L. A. Confidential*
Titanic+ Titanic+

1996

The English Patient+ The English Patient+
Evita Evita
Fargo * Fargo*
Shine * Shine*
The Rock Jerry Maguire*

1995

Braveheart+ Braveheart+
Apollo 13 * Apollo 13*
Crimson Tide Crimson Tide
The Usual Suspects Babe*
Casino Se7en

Comprehensive Chart:

Won ACE | Won Oscar *Nominated for Best Picture

+Won Best Picture

-Won ACE/Oscar for editing but not nominated
for Best Pic

Check out the seven year
streak from 1990 on.

2013:
2012: Argo Argo+
2011: The Artis+t/Descendants* The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
2010: The Social Network The Social Network*
2009: The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker+
2008: Slumdog Millionaire Slumdog Millionaire+
2007: Bourne Ultimatum Bourne
2006: The Departed The Departed+
2005: Crash/Walk the Line Crash+
2004: The Aviator/Ray* The Aviator*
2003: Return of the King/Pirates of the Caribbean Return of the King+
2002: Gangs of New York*/Chicago Chicago+
2001: Black Hawk Down/Moulin Rouge* Black Hawk Down
2000: Gladiator/Almost Famous Traffic*
1999: The
Matrix/Being John Malkovich
The Matrix-
1998: Saving
Private Ryan
Saving Private
Ryan*
1997: Titanic Titanic+
1996: The
English Patient
The English
Patient+
1995: Braveheart Braveheart+
1994: Forrest
Gump
Forrest Gump+
1993: Schindler’s
List
Schindler’s
List+
1991: Unforgiven Unforgiven+
1990: Dances
With Wolves
Dances With
Wolves+
1989: Glory Born on the
Fourth of July*
1988: Mississippi
Burning*
Who Framed
Roger Rabbit-
1987: The
Last Emperor
The
Last Emperor+
1986: Platoon Platoon+
1985: Witness Witness*
1984: Amadeus+ The Killing
Fields*
1983: War
Games-
The Right
Stuff*
1982: Gandhi Gandhi+
1981: Raiders
of the Lost Ark
Raiders of
the Lost Ark*
1980: Raging
Bull
Raging Bull
*
1979: All
That Jazz
All That Jazz*
1978: The
Deer Hunter+
The
Deer Hunter+
1977: The
Turning Point+
Star Wars*
1976: Rocky Rocky+
1975: Jaws Jaws*
1974: The
Longest Yard-
Towering Inferno*
1973: The
Sting
The
Sting+
1972: Cabaret Cabaret*
1971: Summer
of ’42-
French
Connection+
1970: Patton+ Patton+
1969: Hello
Dolly*
Z*
1968: Bullit- Bullit-
1967: The
Dirty Dozen-
In
the Heat of the Night+
1966: Fantastic
Voyage-
Grand Prix-
1965: Sound
of Music
Sound
of Music+
1964: Mary
Poppins
Mary Poppins*
1963: How
the West Was Won
How the West
Was Won*
1962: The
Longest Day
Lawrence
of Arabia+
1961: The Parent Trap West
Side Story+