It’s never a pretty picture to look inside the mind of your average Oscar voter, especially those who have nothing better to do than blab about their choices. Back when I first started covering the Oscar race it was considered a rookie move to post or advertise what one Oscar voter was choosing – simply because there were so many pretending to be Oscar voters. No one is easier to fool than an Oscar blogger because they’re always looking to do three things, 1) pretend that they are rubbing elbows with Academy members, and 2) that they are the person Academy members talk to, and 3) generate filler.
You have to wonder why an Academy member would share this info with an online site. A while back, a LONG while back, the Wall Street Journal took out an Oscar poll in order to predict the Oscars. They got it mostly right but not 100%. The guilds themselves mostly serve as polls because you can get almost as close to predicting their winners just by looking at the guilds. Hey, that’s what most of us predictors do.
I would imagine that there is a large section of Academy members who like being the center of all of this puffery this time of year, and maybe they aren’t exactly working on a movie set, or showing up at an office making their assistant, wife, child, grandchild, mistress, UPS guy fill out their ballot. Maybe they have a lot of time on their hands and they’re looking at all of the coverage now of the Oscar race. There is so much coverage it looks like No Face in Spirited Away, a churning beast that always wants MORE.
Naturally they might be inclined to think, why shouldn’t someone know what I picked? Either way, for whatever reason, it’s curious to see those stories popping up during balloting. Two days and the ballots are turned in – everything will slow way down. No one is left to influence so there’s nothing left to say. But Academy members who turn up and say what they’re voting for with ballots outstanding? They are and will always be suspicious to me.
To make matters worse, those who report on them never say who they are. They can’t. They’ll get kicked out of the Academy for revealing their picks. That makes even more suspicious to me. I have never trusted them, particularly, except if it’s Anne Thompson hobnobbing with a bunch of them and a party and picking up “the buzz.” That is actually useful. But this?
Jeff Wells highlights this Daily Beast debacle one such member, “Pat” who leaves the heavy lifting thinking up to his son. The son is so bright he brings up torture porn to describe 12 Years a Slave. Oh good, he’s been keeping up with the whisper campaigns. The subject of Amy Adams having no boobs was brought up as if that matters for any reason except to remind the world how few people got what she was trying to do with that part – slim herself way down Studio 54 in the 1970s-style in order to have that lean, tan, 70s look. But does “Pat” notice that? Of course not. He’s used to be catered to – big boobs, hot young women, why bother with the details? Decoration isn’t meant to be mistaken for actual human beings.
“Pat” is almost as bad as the guy over at Gold Derby. “Demo Man” has a big old boner for American Hustle, so much so that he’s voting for Christian Bale for Best Actor. He is not talking about Amy Adams’ boobs – I guess he liked them just fine. He liked the jiggle and hustle and swagger of the film and has obliterated all of the favorites. Natch. Believe me, anyone who is going to blab about their voting isn’t going to step forward and say “I’m voting for 12 Years a Slave, Alfonso Cuaron, McConaughey and Blanchett. Yeah, not going to happen. How would they stand apart from the rest that way?
We have put our faith in a group of people who really do hold the fate of nothing less than naming the “Best Picture of the Year.” Why they would be fucking around with talking to bloggers and journalists about what they’re voting for with ballots still outstanding is beyond me. But hey, some people save string.
Why do I have a feeling they’re going to kiss off 12 Years a Slave with maybe one acting win? Maybe? I’ll leave you with what Kenneth Turan wrote in 2006 when Crash lost to Brokeback Mountain:
In the privacy of the voting booth, as many political candidates who’ve led in polls only to lose elections have found out, people are free to act out the unspoken fears and unconscious prejudices that they would never breathe to another soul, or, likely, acknowledge to themselves. And at least this year, that acting out doomed “Brokeback Mountain.”
For Hollywood, as a whole laundry list of people announced from the podium Sunday night and a lengthy montage of clips tried to emphasize, is a liberal place, a place that prides itself on its progressive agenda. If this were a year when voters had no other palatable options, they might have taken a deep breath and voted for “Brokeback.” This year, however, “Crash” was poised to be the spoiler.
I do not for one minute question the sincerity and integrity of the people who made “Crash,” and I do not question their commitment to wanting a more equal society. But I do question the film they’ve made. It may be true, as producer Cathy Schulman said in accepting the Oscar for best picture, that this was “one of the most breathtaking and stunning maverick years in American history,” but “Crash” is not an example of that.
You can’t really make the argument that Gravity is Crash. A Gravity win is still a win for a great movie. But you can make the argument that voters recoil when it comes to righting the wrongs of the past. They would rather reward a mediocre film that makes them feel good, that has no baggage at all, that no one will remember a year from now than pick a film, a landmark film, like 12 Years a Slave.
Thanks, Ryan, for fixing that!
“It’s suspicious to me that they never find anyone to interview who talks about all the screenings that they went to, or the specifics of their craft that we know so many voters must be considering when making their choices. It’s almost like they are looking for the people who want the Academy to look bad or silly or incompetent.”
A scary thought NeverTooEarly is that, maybe, and sadly, these type of voters and their attitudes are overwhelmingly common and the norm in AMPAS. How else can we explain many of the crazy wins throughout the Academy’s history. I know a lot of us are going to be seriously bummed out during and after the ceremony. :/
That’s weird. The link isn’t working because it’s only highlighting the first half. You have to copy the entire thing to get to the story.
Or Google: Most Overrated Best Picture Winners at ew.com
WW, links fixed. it’s a tricky one.
Oops. That Entertainment Weekly link didn’t work. Let’s try that again:
Mike, thanks for your posts about ”Brokeback Mountain.” Until then, no movie had dominated the prizes and won so many, which made its loss for Best Picture that much more stunning. Especially to a mediocrity like ”Crash.” But it’s not the first, nor the last, time the Academy has blown it. Chris Nashawaty of Entertainment Weekly lists 16 times where the Best Picture was anything but. Besides ”Brokeback” losing to ”Crash,” I’m reminded of ”Citizen Kane” losing to ”How Green Was My Valley” and ”E.T.” losing to ”Gandhi.”
Most Overrated Best Picture Winners
*waits for Bryce to leave the room*
You rewatched GRAVITY on a TV didn’t you? I said from day one that it wouldn’t hold up. My reason being that what everyone kept insisting to me was a great visual achievement looked like nothing of the sort from the opening shots. My experience in the theater is why.
I sat in the theater waiting for the previews with the 3D glasses on. The trailer for The Hobbit looked phenomenal. Then a minute or so later GRAVITY started and actually looked flat in comparison. When the movie was over I hadn’t liked the story at all and thought that the acting was normal. But then I got home and read over and over again what a tour-de-force masterpiece of super-human acting and godlike directing it was with a story that was too good for The Bible. And any audacity I had to mention that I didn’t like it was met by fanatics who insisted that I didn’t understand the story or some such nonsense.
Time’s gonna tell. People are not going to rewatch it as it replays on TV and it will drift out into the ether and several films from 2013 will take its place in movie history. Maybe when it does it can wave to A BEAUTIFUL MIND for us.
So glad to see you address these “anonymous voter” articles that keep popping up. It’s something that drives me nuts, not only because I always want to know who they’re really talking to, but also because they always seem to find the people who give terrible reasons for their picks. It’s suspicious to me that they never find anyone to interview who talks about all the screenings that they went to, or the specifics of their craft that we know so many voters must be considering when making their choices. It’s almost like they are looking for the people who want the Academy to look bad or silly or incompetent.
I realize that they don’t want to get in trouble for revealing their votes, but it seems like there might be other ways to get around this. I’ve seen examples where people like Quentin Tarantino and John Waters list their top 10 films of the year without any problems. Is it a stretch to believe that their nomination ballots might have looked similar?
@ Bryce
Of course this is speculation on my part – I believe films like Gravity and American Hustle will not be held in as high esteem as 12 Years a Slave as we approach the Apocalypse.
And while Gravity is a great movie, it IS “the easy choice” when listed next to 12 Years. The easiest choice is American Hustle (also a good movie), but I think Gravity and 12 Years are the frontrunners. If Hustle pulls out a win, then we all get to behold another cavalcade of white guys storming the podium. Then you know something’s up, if you didn’t know it already.
I REALLY like Gravity, it’s just the wrong choice.
Crash is not the worst movie to win Best Picture. It is much better than Gladiator.
Also, it appears that after giving it high praise in her initial review, Sasha is now turning against Gravity, just like she did with The King’s Speech, The Artist, and Argo. What a surprise.
I do think the Academy should vote on the MOST IMPORTANT MOVIE OF THE YEAR, the movie that tackles extremely hard subjects that had never been explored before in an original and unique way, exposing a genocide that while not talked about as much as it should, it still is an undeniable part of the history of a nation (although other nations had played an indirect part in it).
The name of that movie is THE ACT OF KILLING.
@Reno, I’m totally saving your quote, just in case your heart is the one “broken”.
tsk tsk tsk.
This from Peter King who writes a pro football column for Sports Illustrated:
“Saw 12 Years a Slave. Then I cried for 12 years. Tremendous movie. Riveting, painful, memorable. I haven’t seen all the Best Picture nominees, but it will take an epic film to beat that one in the Oscars for me.”
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/02/24/johnny-manziel-monday-morning-quarterback/3/
bet a lot more of the Academy steak-eaters read Peter King’s MMQB column, than read film blogs.
Gravity always gets a backhanded compliment here, though I prefer that over an outright bashing, well prepare your hearts to be broken coz Gravity is winning Oscar best picture… & 8 other trophies!
I’ve been predicting 12YAS since September ; however , I did lose confidence back in January with the noms when American Hustle was riding high , and then again after Gravity pulled off a tie at the PGA , but now , thankfully , I ‘ve came full circle and have almost complete confidence that 12YAS will win BP
It clear to me that the desire to compromise , to take the safe path of least resistance , to avoid any hassles will be the chosen route for the Academy to take ; just like the G Gs did , just like PGA did , just like BAFTA did …THEY WILL REWARD BOTH
Gravity will win the most Oscars , incuding BD , while 12 YAS only wins 2-3 , but the big one with Best Picture …this seems to me to be the SAFE CHOICE , the one that leaves the least amount of folk unhappy and the one that allows them to avoid any PC flax
That description of 12 Years a Slave as torture porn is hard to reconcile with a decent human being. I guess we’re supposed to ignore that slavery ever existed because we can’t “enjoy” the experience without a Django style revenge fantasy.
If any of the nominees borders on porn, it’s the capitalism porn of The Wolf of Wall Street. I thought that movie was grotesque … like watching three hours of completely unerotic porn. I also found the movie insulting … pretending that everything done in the movie is what we all desire if we have the means to do so. But I don’t desire to have public sex with hookers, masturbate in public, rape a flight attendant or consume all of the drugs of Bolivia. Why is any of this fodder for a comedy? And no, I don’t want to learn the secrets of getting rich quick at a seminar so I can partake of this lifestyle. All of this makes me sound like a scold, which bothers me, because I really don’t care how disgusting people live their lives as long as I’m not forced to watch. So … where does that leave me Marty? Someone who should feel morally superior to the characters? Somehow I don’t think that’s what you had in mind. I think I’m supposed to, at some level, empathize with them. But I didn’t, not for a second. Why was I asked to watch this? What was the point of it all?
All of this handwringing is a bit much. We are looking a year where there are 5 legit masterpieces. It’s not as if there is a chance of some lowest common denominator fluff taking Best Picture. As long as one out of Wolf of Wall Street, 12 Years a Slave, Her, Gravity or American Hustle win, I’ll be content.
I won’t lie, when Crash won over BrokeBack, it crushed me. I mean, not only as other pointed out BrokeBack was the superior movie, but also the other movies were superior as well: Munich, Capote, Good Night and Good Luck. They not only chose a movie over a far superior one, they chose the worst movie out of the ones nominated.
At this point I would be fine with a split: 12YAS and Gravity are very fine films in different ways and if there should be a year where the rules get thrown out, why not this year.
Sadly, America’s views on slavery and racial subjugation are not settled issues. Nostalgia for the world of GWTW is still very much alive, in fact, it’s an industry. There are scores of antebellum mansions with young women dressed as southern belles within a days drive of me now. I grew up knowing many Klan members, important men in our town. Their children are only marginally more enlightened. I’ve seen photos of hundreds of people, regular people, families with children, picnicking at a lynching. Those people are still around.
The popular interpretation of slavery and the civil war are still hotly contested, issues in our cultural politics…. and will be after we’re gone.
“It’s just the way of things. People will hate the winner no matter what wins…”
Of course there will always be haters. To me, its not about hating the choices, its about respecting them. For example, in my eyes, There Will Be Blood was robbed in 2007 (already top 201 ever at Sight & Sound too, pretty lofty). The winner was No Country for Old Men, then the overwhelming favorite to win the Oscar, and an almost undeniably intense, very well made film, many would say a great one. In my eyes, not quite, as there was just too many inconsistencies in the plot, with characters acting in ways they really wouldn’t have had they been consistent to how they were written, but irrelevant. No Country was supposed to win, it did, and its a terrific film, so what if I think There Will Be Blood is better.
On the other hand, we look at something like Chicago or A Beautiful Mind. You watch it in a theater, and you enjoy it. But then you give it a Best Picture prize over the likes of The Pianist or Fellowship or non-nominee Mulholland Dr. (top 30 ever at Sight & Sound), and you can’t help but be a bit ticked off at Chicago or Beautiful, even though its not their “fault” they won, extensive campaigning notwithstanding.
Then you look at a Crash. A film with a 69 metacritic, #30something at the Entertainment Weekly poll, #50something at the Premiere poll, and a movie considered out and out bad by many. I saw it upon its release. I was so excited, because I loved Million Dollar Baby (but no, not more than deserving winner Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind; Hilary’s family and the gym bullies in baby were just to evil to be taken seriously, the over-the-top writing and portrayals rendered them cartoons), and it was Paul Haggis again. But I was stunned by what a clumsy, in-your-face, unevenly acted, overall bad film it was, the important subject matter notwithstanding. When interviewed before the Oscars, he said he was surprised Crash was well-received at all, he saw many flaws in it, and he also said Brokeback should and would win. Very gracious. I can’t hate Paul Haggis. But when Crash won the Oscar over Brokeback, it was hard not to fall into hating it (for me). It just wasn’t in the same cinematic league as Brokeback, a film that shouldn’t have even been on the radar for a nomination in strong 2005 to beat the universally acclaimed masterpiece. All these years later, I no longer hate Crash, and I never should have in the first place of course, but I still dislike it. Its a bad movie, the worst to win the Best Picture Oscar (in my opinion), and when you look at the shockingly mediocre list thru the years, that’s saying a lot!
So back to Sasha’s point, yeah, plenty of people will always be disatisfied with the winner, no film is everybody’s favorite (not even Schindler’s List, sorry!), but is the winner an outstanding film even if not the so-called best? It darn well should be. With the Oscars, that way too often just isn’t the case. I’m in the minority thinking Gravity falls into the latter category. Obviously it is a technological wonder, but is that enough? I don’t know. The first 20 minutes were thrilling, but didn’t we all know Sandra’s eventual fate? And her incessant muttering…not her fault, it was the script’s fault. Where was the magic of the silence of space (like in 2001). And sorry, did you really truly believe Sandra was a genius scientist? Someone like Jodie Foster would have been more suited to the part (don’t get me wrong, I like Sandra, she’s a very engaging actress, and did well with bad dialogue). Movies like The Garden of Allah and The Jazz Singer were presented important technological break-thrus in their day (color cinematography and of course sound, respectively), but did that make them the Best Pictures of their years? Of course not, and neither was nominated by the Academy, rightfully so. Gravity is fun, often intense, but to me, after awhile, it just went around and around, with too much babbling, obvious pandering with Sandy’s skin (hot!), and a disappointing ending. If it wins, it will be nice that a sci fi film finally broke the barrier, but I wish it would have been a finer overall movie, beyond the best-ever effects.
Loved to hear you talking about the Oscars on HollywoodElsewhere. Would love to hear you talking movies every week. What struck me though, is that even you two don’t really seem to know who is eligible for voting the Oscars. Assuming, I’d say that everybody who HAS WON an Oscar EVER, is a life-time voter? (That’s for sure, innit?) But that’s not enough, of course. For sure not EVERYBODY in a guild has the right to vote. So how to become an Academy Member with the right to vote? Please tell us. There’s the Foreign Correspondents section even. You might want to be a voting member yourselves, Jeff and Sasha? In your own interest, what are the guidelines to vote, having won twice I guess that CHRISTOPH WALTZ is a lifetime member in the Academy and he can spill his hate on every newcomer that he is jealous of. This is just an example, but it goes on for every Member of the Academy and in every category, from Script to Animation Short Film. Or am I completely wrong in this? Please fill us up…
Maja
So glad you re-published Kenneth Turan’s piece on the Brokeback fiasco. That was the most high-profile at the time, but it was one of just many. I loved Annie Proulx’s “Blood on the Red Carpet”, it pulled no punches, she wasn’t afraid of the inevitable backlash. See below.
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2006/mar/11/awardsandprizes.oscars2006
I just think its worth reminding Oscar enthusiasts that Brokeback won Best Picture at 20something critics organizations (then a record) including NY, LA and Broadcast, the BAFTA, the Globe, DGA, PGA, WGA (remember, the Big 5 Oscars are Picture, Director, Actor, Actress and Screenplay). The only thing it lost was SAG ensemble, which is not a Best Picture prize, they’ve said so themselves (its just a precursor with a 50% accuracy rate, mediocre). And the most nominations and acting nominations. And highest box office among the nominees by 50%. Nothing with this dominance lost before or since. Social Network might now have more critics prizes, but it got creamed by the Guilds.
But most significantly, Ernest Borgnine, Tony Curtis, and “all their friends” openly stated they would not even watch Brokeback “because John Wayne would roll over in his grave”. For the years since that transpired, some of us have been waiting for this moment, wondering whether the Academy would snub a film made by African Americans because George Wallace and other bigots would roll over in their graves. They certainly snubbed Do the Right Thing in 1989, as history says it clearly should have won (see Sight & Sound, AFI, etc.), yet not even nominated. I was too young and naive to stop watching the Oscars then and there. I should have. It took the Brokeback loss, in light of the incontrovertible evidence of homophobia having cost the overwhelming frontrunner its due, to make me realize once and for all the Oscars are a political farce.
I hope 12 Years a Slave wins because it would signficiantly boost that film’s box office, and it deserves to be seen. Its not as dominant as Brokeback was at the precursors, but it has done pretty darn well. In my eyes, it is a a somewhat flawed but truly outstanding film, the best of 2013 (at least English language). One Academy member I am friends with voted for it. But the two others with whom I am friends didn’t watch it, not because they are racist, but because they said it would be “too difficult to watch”. I told them that’s a crock and they had an obligation. They agreed, but I think they were just giving me lip service. It will be interesting. I am hopeful the Academy has evolved a bit since 1989 and 2005, and that they indeed do the right thing (sorry, couldn’t help it).
Sasha, bless your liberal/leftist heart. No need to worry. I’ve been observing and writing about the Academy Awards far longer than you. 12 Years will win because it is the “important” film. Then, of course, the academy will be slammed for “being out of touch” with the average movie goer. That scenario will surely be played out because it’s part of the dumbing down of American culture.
I agree. A win for either Gravity or 12 Years A Slave would be a landmark in it’s own right! 🙂 My only “horse” in this race, however belongs to Leo! That win for Best Actor would get probably the biggest applause of the night if we have to be honest! It would be so so AWESOME! But, alas it probably won’t happen. One can dream though! 🙂
This is a year where we could deservedly have 2 BP winners. Seriously, how many years have there been like this? If 12YAS wins, then it’s a triumph for an excellent film about a subject matter that deals with a historic event that occurred years ago, but one that still has a strong effect today as so many people are reluctant to see the film or to discuss it. Slavery has been happening for thousands of years and is still happening today, thus giving the film current day relevance.
On the other hand, if Gravity were to prevail, it would be a landmark win as this genre has always been shunned for top awards. It also is a masterpiece.
I love both films and wish both could win, but that is not realistic. So to honor both a split would be in order, and given the relevance of 12YAS my vote would go there for BP. It’s a tough call for sure.
It’s a sad state when we hope our favourites lose just to spare them in future conversations. It says much about our connection to “our” films and, even more, about the Oscars.
Hey – look on the bright side. Maybe AH will win!
I think that it’s a bit unfair to call Gravity a mediocre film that no one will remember a year from now! I know that Sasha wants 12 years to win but please, don’t take your frustrations on Gravity. It’s not right!
I guess you didn’t actually read the piece?
You can’t really make the argument that Gravity is Crash. A Gravity win is still a win for a great movie. But you can make the argument that voters recoil when it comes to righting the wrongs of the past. They would rather reward a mediocre film that makes them feel good, that has no baggage at all, that no one will remember a year from now than pick a film, a landmark film, like 12 Years a Slave.
I am a bit confused, Sasha! On the one hand you say that a Gravity win would be a great win for a great movie but then you say that the Academy would rather vote for a mediocre movie that makes them feel good? I assume you are referring to American Hustle then..
Best erotic scenes from Oscar movies http://tiny.pl/qptsq
Gravity is the daring choice, 12 Years the safe one, Hustle the bad one.
one*
OT: Looks like one of those “it’s important because it happened in the UK” kind of deals. The only memorable on of the last 25-30 years being Stephen Frears uncontested masterpiece THE QUEEN, but I’m only watching it for the cast. Also the director of AN EDUCATION, who also had the good sense to cast fallen angel Jim Sturgess in a movie that wasn’t ultimately good, doesn’t hurt!
http://www.firstshowing.net/2014/first-look-lone-scherfigs-new-film-posh-about-oxfords-riot-club/
I’m laughing out loud at the people saying Gravity is ‘groundbreakibng’ and 12YaS is not.
My dear fellas, groundbreaking moviemaking doesn’t always refer to technical achievements.
Gravity had great technology and special effects, all right, but 12YaS is THEMATICALLY groundbreaking, and so is its DEPICTION of the subject. One can only hope AMPAS members are more sensible than you and reward it with the main award.
I’m laughing out loud at the people saying Gravity is ‘groundbreakibng’ and 12YaS is not.
My dear fellas, groundbreaking moviemaking doesn’t always refer to technical achievements.
This.
I think that it’s a bit unfair to call Gravity a mediocre film that no one will remember a year from now! I know that Sasha wants 12 years to win but please, don’t take your frustrations on Gravity. It’s not right!
I think that it’s a bit unfair to call Gravity a mediocre film that no one will remember a year from now! I know that Sasha wants 12 years to win but please, don’t take your frustrations on Gravity. It’s not right!
I guess you didn’t actually read the piece?
For very selfish reasons, I don’t even want GRAVITY to win. One is like Steve just said (about 12 YEARS), I think it’s last years’ film that fits perfectly in the “should-have wons”, but also I wanna be able to come back and comment here the rest of the year without having some fool having a petty yet sanctimonious breakdown on a weekly basis.
For very selfish reasons, I don’t even want GRAVITY to win. One is like Steve just said (about 12 YEARS), I think it’s last years’ film that fits perfectly in the “should-have wons”, but also I wanna be able to come back and comment here the rest of the year without having some fool having a petty yet sanctimonious breakdown on a weekly basis.
It’s just the way of things. People will hate the winner no matter what wins….
– Just back from a 12 hr power outage:
“How would you know? Do you have the 2032 sight&sound poll results?”
– Yes, just putting that together for them now 🙂
“12YAS is NOT like Brokeback, slavery is historical fact that everyone in this country is aware of and it is widely accepted as wrong. Homosexuality is not a settled issue like slavery, back in 2006 probably half the country if you polled it would be against homosexual rights and it remains a contemporary issue.”
Oh dear. WRONG. If you polled in 1850, half the country would find nothing wrong with slavery. Plus, like now, you get a lot of “I don’t give a fuck” votes. Oppression vs civil rights is an ongoing “historical fact”, whether one is aware of it or not.
“Maybe the best thing that could happen for 12YAS is to not win any Oscars, because that will demonstrate to everyone what a fraud the Oscars are. I love Gravity, if it wins big, it’s a technically deserving film. But more long term attention would be paid on the film that did not win, which should have.”
Simone – we are cut from the same cloth. Giving the damn Oscar to Gravity will be worthy and a definite improvement over the last couple of years. 12 Years a Slave fits just fine in the list of “shoulda-wons”.
pick what is the best film of the year, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS!
^^
I must be the minority because I found Capt Phillips boring.
I agree with her assessment of Cate’s acting, it was sort of Streetcar Named Desirish! 🙂 but Cate will still win. And Sandra was just “adequate”, but she was the most physical of the other actors.
I read somewhere that McQueen depended on Henry Louis Gates for the authentication of 12 Yrs a Slave moments….and I wouldn’t be surprised if they read the newspapers of those years …. because the news would have reported HOW MANY LASHES a slave(s) received. So if Patsy received 10 lashes, that may be what was authenticated for slaves during those times. Just a guess.
Regardless, here’s what I think will happen: It’s a good bet that Abdi upsets and takes best supporting over Jared. It could be an upset of Chitwele over Leo and McCon. I think Lupita takes best supporting. I think Gravity and 12 Yrs split – picture and best director. Gravity takes all the technicals, as it should.
If it played out as above, all actors would be FOREIGN!
It’s okay to be homophobic, that’s why BM lost to “Crash.”
It’s NOT okay to be racist, which is why “Crash” won over BM and probably why 12 Years a Slave (though a FAR superior film to “Crash”) will win over the groundbreaking “Gravity.”
1. The oscars don’t really deviate much from the guilds these days, so the “I’ve been hearing so and so has a ton if support” articles are pretty meaningless.
2. Can’t we be happy that the BP race is so tight that there is no perceived overwhelming favorite less than a week out?
3. Unless Gravity wins BP in a 7-8 Oscar juggernaut, the BP winner is likely to win at most three, which will reinforce just how tight this really was.
4. Assuming it falls short, any explanation for Hustle not closing the deal as the obvious compromise winner?
I’m prepared for a repeat of ‘The Color Purple’ being shut out at the Oscars.
Maybe the best thing that could happen for 12YAS is to not win any Oscars, because that will demonstrate to everyone what a fraud the Oscars are. I love Gravity, if it wins big, it’s a technically deserving film. But more long term attention would be paid on the film that did not win, which should have.
No big difference in terms of quality between the films. So anything can happen.
Eh? 12 years a slave is a good film but gravity is a LANDMARK
I wish the Oscars would hand out 5 BEST Pictures instead of ONE.
12YAS is NOT like Brokeback, slavery is historical fact that everyone in this country is aware of and it is widely accepted as wrong. Homosexuality is not a settled issue like slavery, back in 2006 probably half the country if you polled it would be against homosexual rights and it remains a contemporary issue.
IF anything, Gravity is this year’s Brokeback in terms of being the daring choice. Just like people avoided voting for the homosexual movie, people will not award a ci-fi visual effects spectacle Best Picture, its just straight up too modern.
12YAS is the safe choice, the historical epic made for the Oscar’s.
As for what’s going to be remembered years from now, it’s going to be Gravity, its a visual effects game changer, the one thats going to have massive Blu-Ray sales and be played on TV for years to come. 12YAS honestly needs a win more to stay in the minds of people. (If Hurt Locker didn’t win Best Picture, it’d be even more of an afterthought than it already is. It’s more remembered for Bigelow’s first woman triumph than the movie itself, which is rarely talked about anymore).
I must admit to being fed up with the predictable and worthy film winning just because it purports to say something important about a time or event in history. What rubbish this is. A film is a film is a film for god’s sake. This year everyone keeps going on about ’12 Year’s a Slave’ vs ‘Gravity’, which are both solidly good, but not great films. In my humble opinion voters should forget both these over rated offerings and pick what is the best film of the year, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS!
This wont happen though, because like sheep the Academy will vote in their normal predictable way for the films they feel SHOULD be voted for because that’s what every other group has done. The dye is already cast. They don’t want to seem too out of touch after all, do they? People who say that the Academy likes to go its own way are deluding themselves. Winners like Marisa Tomei, Art Carney and Halle Berry are arrived at more by error than judgement. Personally, I would love to see major surprises in all categories except actress. Cate Blanchett is a truly deserving winner and, oh yes, wasn’t she a victim of on of those Academy errors back in 1998.
So where are the voter’s picks? I thought we would see them.
“Why do I have a feeling they’re going to kiss off 12 Years a Slave with maybe one acting win? Maybe?”
@Sasha–the second outlier “Demo Man” says despite his own thinking that of the academy members he knows of, most are voting 12YAS BP. It may not be what you feel in the end. Knowing what happened in Crash VS. Brokeback Mountain keeps me from betting the house….but things may not be what you are feeling right now if this outlier is to be believed. And with all the out-there stuff he otherwise says, he is willing to say a majority of the small sample he knows of are going with 12YAS–something to consider.
Of course, at this point, giving Cate Blanchett Best Actress at this point seems more like a formality than an actual Oscar race…
I know there are some who have pushed for years for the Academy/Price Waterhouse to release the voting results but like they keep those secret. I’d know I’d be hit hard if I found out I lost an Oscar by only 50 or 60 votes, haunt me far more than thinking it was a wide margin.
I’m always wary of the “inside buzz” at this time of year as right on this site last year we had guys saying “I work in Hollywood and everyone I know is voting for Riva” and we see that made no difference. I do wish we had more insight for those times we get a truly shocking win (Binoche, Tomei, Brody) but as you point out, no one really wants to go on record as if the results are unpopular, they can always shrug “Oh, no, I never voted for that person.”
Didn’t one of the BAFTA voters that was surveyed before the outcome was revealed call 12YAS “torture porn” and gush over AH? That didn’t seem to work against 12YAS in terms of the Overall BAFTA Best Picture result….
Yeah, I suppose that guy’s votes were shared in an article for the same reason “torture porn” is getting brought up again now….it goes against the grain that “12 YAS will win BP” and therefore anything that goes against the grain of this thinking is newsworthy since it seems right now the reaction to 12YAS winning would be “we knew it all along–we were just a bit unsure because of the past”–which seems to be the “with the grain” thinking.
And so anything against-the-grain in suggesting what Oscar results might be is HOT right now. I think you said this in another way, Sasha. Certainly a 12YAS victory would be historical and thus newsworthy, but right now…THIS….this “torture porn” rhetoric, is what sells newspapers and magazines (print or cyberspace version).
Comparing 12YAS with Brokeback is utter rubbish ; it’s hardly surprising they refused to give it BP …they’re liberal and Left leaning , but not that much
They’ll give 12 YAS best picture , regardless of any last moment panick attacks by Sasha
“I’ll leave you with what Kenneth Turan wrote in 2006 when Crash lost to Brokeback Mountain…”
I wish CRASH had lost to BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN.
I should clarify that I’m predicting 12 YEARS A SLAVE to win Best Picture and Best Director on March 2 and would be a great outcome too. I’m just not down with the severe undermining of a highly unlikely GRAVITY victory.
Just as the Academy chose to ignore throughout its history landmark films like STAGECOACH, RIO BRAVO, HIGH NOON, LIBERTY VALANCE, RED RIVER, THE SEARCHERS, ONCE UPON A TIME IN THE WEST, MCCABE & MRS. MILLER, etc, etc and then decades later they salvaged some faced by awarding masterpiece UNFORGIVEN. The same could happen on Sunday and they can prove that they’re actually aware that 2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY, ALIEN, SOLARIS, BLADE RUNNER, STAR WARS and if you allow me THE FLY, SILENT RUNNING, and TERMINATOR were all significant and substantial movies that have had lasting influence in filmmaking far beyond science fiction.
“As tacky as it is to mention it, when people tick off their Best Movies of 2013, 12 Years a Slave will stay near the top of it while some of these others (Amercian Hustle and Gravity) will fall.”
How would you know? Do you have the 2032 sight&sound poll results?
“They would rather reward a mediocre film that makes them feel good, that has no baggage at all, that no one will remember a year from now than pick a film, a landmark film, like 12 Years a Slave.”
Strongly disagree. GRAVITY is a landmark film for reasons discussed to exhaustion here and elsewhere (mostly elsewhere). I doubt Danny Boyle, Brad Bird, James Cameron, Darren Aronofsky, etc qualify as fanboys who lack qualified cinematic judgment as to what has long-lasting value. GRAVITY is as bold a choice as any, it would begin to prove The Academy are not nearly as close minded, but most importantly clueless, as to the importance of genre films in the history of cinema.
Just saw 12 Years again today. Damn that’s a great film, better the second time.
Why couldn’t 12 Years have come out last year? Or Gravity?
Ken Turan’s words are so accurate.
I’m with you that Gravity is the safe choice. At least it’s a great movie. 12 Years a Slave is a better one.
As tacky as it is to mention it, when people tick off their Best Movies of 2013, 12 Years a Slave will stay near the top of it while some of these others (Amercian Hustle and Gravity) will fall.
I’m rooting for Lupita. I don’t want to dislike Jennifer Lawrence, but if she pulls out a win, I may join boycott the next Hunger Games movie.