(NOTE: Updated and Expanded)
by Marshall Flores
Welcome to the final episode of Awards Daily’s Statsgasm for the 2013 Oscar season. We are now in the home stretch, and it’s time for everyone to fill out their ballots and enter their pools. If you haven’t done so already, do enter AD’s Predict the Winner Contest – as always, there will be prizes and bragging rights for the best predictor!
Before we unveil the final slate of predictions made by our Statsgasm models, we would like everyone to keep in mind three things:
1. Correlation is *not* causation. AD’s forecasting models are first and foremost built to predict outcomes as accurately as possible, not explain them. We really can’t make strong assumptions or inferences on how AMPAS voters behave because, outside of a few anecdotes and polls from voters self-selecting to talk under anonymity, we simply don’t have any good data on them (what they like, what they know, what they consider when voting, etc.). And we’ll probably never know any of that.
That being said, the strongest predictors in our models tend to be guild/BAFTA outcome-related precursors, and the reasons for this do make sense intuitively: these groups, with their overlapping membership with the Academy, reflect AMPAS to a limited degree while also acting as its official “gatekeepers.” So we could apply a certain amount of causative analysis in some cases.