“I remember those cheers, They still ring in my ears, And for years they remain in my thoughts. ‘Cause one night I took off my robe, And what’d I do? I forgot to wear shorts. I recall every fall, every hook, every jab, The worst way a guy can get rid of his flab, As you know, my life wasn’t drab. Though I’d rather hear you cheer When I delve into Shakespeare …’A horse! A horse! My kingdom for a horse!’ I haven’t had a winner in six months. And though I’m no Olivier, If he fought Sugar Ray, he would say That the thing ain’t the ring, it’s the play. So give me a stage Where this bull here can rage, And though I can fight, I’d much rather recite. That’s entertainment.”
And for a time, the raging bull was a beautiful thing. He was in his prime and no one, not even Sugar Ray, could knock him down. By the end he’s lost everything, even knocked out the stones in his champion’s belt. His life has come to nothing. Looking at the year Raging Bull was up for Oscar you have to make a choice about what is better, Ordinary People, which is magnificent in its own way, or Raging Bull – an out and out masterpiece, but one that isn’t necessarily about the goodness in people, but rather, the the damage they do.
Today’s True Detective loving audiences would have loved Raging Bull were it released again today. That movie would blow the minds of people who are stunned and amazed by anything HBO produces. Those who have seen it know what I’m talking about. There are no ambitions that high today. And yet, to have to somehow frame that movie in terms of an awards race automatically ruins everything. To put its fate and the judgment of it in the hands of a consensus, however well-meaning it may be, is to instantly devalue the film.
This glaring truth, despite what people who look at my job think, presented itself years ago. Therefore that question of why Citizen Kane did not beat How Green was My Valley can be answered quite simply — yes, it’s true that a movie like Citizen Kane isn’t consensus-friendly. But the real truth of that year was that John Ford, the icon, the genius, had won Best Director twice without winning Best Picture. He was Ang Lee back then. He was way overdo. Given the choice of awarding John Ford’s sweeping epic and upstart Orson Welles was an easy call. The same dynamic would work itself out today. Nothing has really changed that much in 86 years.
So who are the chumps here? The Academy for not willing to embrace great films on a massive scaled, particularly in the last three years, or those of us who give a damn. The Academy are content with their choices. Moreover, they will likely be in lock-step with the New York, National Society and Los Angeles Film Critics, none of whom awarded 12 Years a Slave Best Picture.
Most anyone now, in the stifling heat of the these few weeks, will have long since stopped believing 12 Years a Slave was a good movie, or even a great movie. It will look like a hooker at the end of the night, hobbling alone down the street with one heel broken off and no friends to offer her a ride home. It will have been banged one too many times during Oscar season, raked over the coals for reasons that have nothing to do with whether it’s a good film or not. The popular movies have captured a zeitgeist — Gravity because it is a technological marvel, one that seems to be about the future of film. American Hustle because it is loose and easy, with juicy performances and lots of sex. It doesn’t matter in the least bit that it has no real plot, no real story. It was enjoyable and that’s all that counts. The New York Film Critics, after all, declared it the year’s best so how can anyone make the argument that it isn’t?
We ask too much of them, perhaps. No one really has any other choice but to vote with their hearts. The fault lies in us, those of us who spend any of our waking days caring about the outcome. The statues don’t define the worth. The statues only define their collective taste at a given moment in their history.
Let’s face it, most Academy members are old. They’ve already done all the suffering they plan on doing. They pay their taxes, perhaps contribute to political campaigns that might further social causes. They want movies that entertain them, move them, help them enjoy what remains of their lives. They don’t want movies that pick a scab, poke and prod their tender spots – just let it all be easy. But if it were only the Academy we might have a point. The industry consensus has rewarded in unison with the Academy since 2009. A solid wall of taste. The Academy aren’t alone in their decisions. Whether they’re doing it to pick the one they think the Academy will choose is unclear. What is clear is that Argo was popular with critics and guild voters alike, ditto The Artist. So what are we even saying here?
What I think about, and what not enough people in my field seem to acknowledge, is how this very large consensus closes doors of opportunity. Opportunities for women, for black filmmakers, for all but the ones who, like Alfonso Cuaron and Ang Lee, manage to work within the Hollywood system and get rewarded for it. In short, they make movies that appeal to largely white, largely male majority. Tough luck for anyone else unless they, like Kathryn Bigelow, can make movies a white man might have made. Had Steve McQueen directed Gravity, I suspect it would be an easy sell for him to win.
But Steve McQueen, like Spike Lee, like Lee Daniels, like Ryan Coogler, like Ava DuVernay, like Robert Townsend, like Denzel Washington carries White Man’s Burden. Very few black storytellers can do what Bigelow did – transcend definitions of race and gender. They would be criticized as Uncle Toms if they did, if they didn’t tell important stories about positive black role models.
Forget it, Jake. It’s Chinatown.
It wouldn’t sting so much if this hadn’t been such a watershed year for black auteurs. It wouldn’t sting so much if those movies hadn’t tried – two with the Weinstein Co backing them – to get into the Oscar race, to calm down the violence and rage in their films to be soggy enough and palatable enough for white voters. It wouldn’t sting so much if the one movie that did make it through is now TOO VIOLENT. Too full of hate and pain and rage and suffering. What is poor Goldilocks to do?
Someone in a comments section said to me that my reaction to 12 Years a Slave reads like someone who didn’t know slavery existed before and thus, was newly horrified by that which I didn’t know. It isn’t slavery itself that astonished me about 12 Years a Slave. I have been a McQueen fan for a long time now – what astonished me about it was the raw truth and shocking nature of telling a story from the point of view of slaves. In Hollywood. To rave reviews and Oscar nominations. That just doesn’t happen. Ever.
Sometimes using your vote to do the right thing, even if it runs counter to your conditioned heart, can do such good in the world the simple act of that alone might make you sleep better at night, even if it didn’t have half-clothed movie stars in funny hairdos, or million dollar visual effects, or a character that made you feel good about yourself and your place in the world. Doing the right thing often requires some kind of inner constitution.
At this point, any of the three could win Best Picture. It isn’t going to matter, particularly, which one does except 12 Years a Slave. Take it from an old lady who knows her Oscar history too well by now. The Academy will lose either way. If they pick 12 Years the film will be thought of as a “white guilt” win. If they don’t pick it they will be accused of being racists, even though the New York Film Critics, National Society and Los Angeles did not pick the film either. And once again, they will have to live in the shadow of the more daring Hollywood Foreign Press who, despite their continual blow jobs to celebrities, still managed to give 12 Years a Slave Best Picture, the only award it won that night. Maybe they didn’t “like” it, really really “like” it, but it was the right thing to do.
It’s been an interesting year. People tried hard not to make it be about race, but about “merit.” Yet, given their history, it had to be about race. We’re just not at the point yet where race doesn’t matter. Doors can’t be gently opened. They must be kicked down. With big black leather biker boots. If the Oscars represent the pinnacle of power in Hollywood, that is where the change has to happen. I hope, for their sake, that they do the right thing.
One thing to watch out for – there is a lot of buzz and heat on American Hustle all of a sudden. It is the one movie people seem able to settle on, no one hates it, lots of people – actors especially — love it. I suspect it could indeed be the spoiler on Oscar night. But we shall see. Mercifully, it will all be over soon. By next year, there likely won’t be a film about race in the race – the status quo will settle back into itself and no one will have to worry about watching a film no one wants to face.
So let’s do it, shall we? One last epic post. One more for my baby, and one more for the road.
Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
Why it will win: Because it has won most of the major precursors so far, including Globe, PGA, BAFTA. Because it will make Oscar history. Because, dammit, it’s time. It is a visionary, breathtaking work, easily among the most memorable of the year.
Why it won’t win: It did not win the DGA, which it really needed. It did not win SAG ensemble, which it really needed. It did not win the New York, LA, National Society, which it could have used. The consensus turned against it, only a few brave voting bodies were willing to go there. No one wants to reward a bummer experience. They just don’t care enough to sacrifice that heart-vote.
Gravity
Why it will win: It has the PGA and DGA. A powerful combo that really can’t be beat. People love it. They just do.
Why it won’t win: I did not qualify for a SAG ensemble nod, it did not win the Globe (where it should have), it’s 3D, set in space, effects-driven and has only two actors (never in the history of the Oscars has a film with so few actors won). It all rests on Sandra Bullock. If you don’t like her, as many older males likely do not, they won’t vote for it.
American Hustle
Why it will win: Two acting wins + Picture at Globes; SAG ensemble + Eddie usually precipitates and Oscar split. People like it and people love it. Very few people hate it. It takes zero risks. Sexy hot stars coupling, funny Jennifer Lawrence, tans and costumes – therefore it maintains zero baggage. Remember the words of Peggy Siegel, if you want to win Oscars you have to make movies “they” will want to watch. You do that with traditional roles of men and women, plucky successful white celebrities, a movie that doesn’t ask too much of you but takes you along for the ride, and never forces you to make any bad decisions.
Why it won’t win: It is the weakest of the nine. It didn’t win the BAFTA nor the DGA. The plot really makes no sense (not that people trouble themselves with details like that). It seems unimportant next to the other films.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron – has everything you need to win Best Director. Becomes the first Latino director to win.
Steve McQueen – hope is the thing with feathers that perches on the soul.
David O. Russell – your Steven Soderbergh spoiler if McQueen takes anything away from Cuaron and they split the vote.
Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey – won the SAG, namely. Also did True Detective, Wolf of Wall Street and Mud. The James Schamus reign at Focus Features, if voters are paying attention to such things, should push Dallas Buyers Club into the winners circle.
Chiwetel Ejiofor – if voters are feeling guilty about not awarding 12 Years Best Picture.
Bruce Dern – the major spoiler, talk about overdue.
Leo DiCaprio – someone pulls a candle out of his ass. Gets major props for pushing it all the way to the limit but voters like mostly good guys doing good things. You never know, of course.
Christian Bale – coming at you like a dark horse. Bale is representative of Academy voters: oldish, paunchyish but women like Amy Adams and Jennifer Lawrence find him irresistibly sexy anyway. Sort of like a Nancy Meyers movie for dudes. Good performance for sure. Great performance? Get outta town.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – no one else can touch her, performance-wise.
Amy Adams – with four acting nods for AH, Adams could be the one winner.
Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto – has that shit locked and loaded. Such a likable character it’s not possible not to fall in love.
Barkhad Abdi – the BAFTA gave him a big boost.
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong‘o absolutely deserves it. But if they never watched the movie…
Jennifer Lawrence
If Lawrence can beat 86 year-old Emmanuelle Riva who flew to the Oscars on her birthday only to lose to Lawrence, she can certainly and easily beat Lupita, winning her second consecutive Oscar, blah blah blah. Next?
June Squibb – your potential spoiler
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle – it could be Russell’s consolation prize for turning in three consecutive Best Picture nominees, with actor prizes and nominations up the wazoo. This win seems predicated on Best Picture heat. But supposedly no one likes him in Hollywood. That can hurt you in a popularity contest.
Her – the deserving winner could out, which would be funny considering it is the partner film to Lost in Translation which also won screenplay.
Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave – I predict this with zero confidence the film will win anything. I just don’t think they vote that way. They vote with their hearts and if they weren’t moved by 12 Years they are soulless to begin with. What can we expect of their hearts if they have no soul?
Philomena – probably the likely winner but I don’t have the guts to predict it.
Best Editing
Captain Phillips
Spoiler: Gravity
Best Production Design:
Gravity
Spoiler: Gatsby
Best Cinematography
Gravity
Spoiler: Grandmaster
Original Score
Gravity
Spoiler: Her
Original Song
Let it Go
Spoiler: U2, Pharrell
Costumes
Hustle
Spoiler: Gatsby
Visual Effects:
Gravity
Live Action Short: Helium
Animated Short: Get a Horse
Doc Short: The Lady in Number 6
I might change some of these in the coming days but for now, these are my best guesses.
:)) I hadn’t even seen your post, Zach! Convincing guy, this Hawkeye…
You’ve convinced me, Hawkeye! I’m switching to Her – for other reasons as well. I’m also switching to Lawrence.
Now I think 12 Years will most likely get Picture, Screenplay, Production Design (or, alternatively, Costume Design) and, perhaps, Actor (Ejiofor), but I’m not predicting the latter.
*a quick addendum to my previous post. It turns out that The Usual Suspects was “ineligible” for the WGA as well, so it might have been able to beat Braveheart there as well if they didn’t have their silly rules in place.
“does the Academy even give a fuck about the Before-trilogy”
Well…they have nominated it before. And I’m still bummed Before Midnight didn’t get a Best Picture nomination. Sigh. The screenplay nod is its (well-deserved) award.
“Hustle, Dallas, Philomena, and even Wolf are the most heavily plotted Best Pic nominees.”
If Wolf is one of the most heavily plotted nominees, then the rest of the nominees this year must not be very heavily plotted. That movie is three hours of sex, swearing, and drugs. Thankfully that movie also has a decent amount of subtext to make it more than what it is on the surface, but it is not heavily plotted at all.
Hawkeye, you’ve convinced me
Did a little more research today and found that no Original Screenplay has won the Oscar without first winning at least one major precursor (Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, WGA, BAFTA) WHILE having its top competition in play since the inception of the BFCA.
Hustle did win the BAFTA, but it didn’t have to face Her. The main reasoning here is that it opened right at the cutoff date, so many didn’t get a chance to see it. Not sure what the screener situation is with BAFTA, but it goes a long way towards explaining why McConaughey and Leto didn’t get nominated either (DBC opened very late as well). How else would you explain three gigantic snubs like this? If Her had opened earlier, it probably would have been seen by a lot more voters, gotten the nomination, and the win.
The closest circumstance would probably be when The Usual Suspects won only the BAFTA before winning the Oscar, but they flat-out snubbed Braveheart for a screenplay nomination (the film was obviously seen by most voters as it was nominated for seven awards). Braveheart would win the WGA, but still lose the Oscar.
Another somewhat similar circumstance happened back when Talk to Her only won the BAFTA before taking the Oscar. However, it was deemed “ineligible” for the WGA awards, where it probably would have easily beaten Bowling for Columbine (still not sure how this was nominated for Original Screenplay).
All this is to say that Hustle would be making a bit of history if it should somehow overcome the overwhelming odds against it winning the Best Original Screenplay Oscar.
All in all, I just don’t see this being the year that all of the precursors fail for the category, making Her the clear favorite despite the “experts” splitting their votes 50/50 with Hustle.
unlikely hood
Oh, it’s not just you, there are a few interesting angles that could result big surprises :
1. If the Academy REALLY wants to honor 12 Years a Slave they won’t split BP/BD and WILL make Steve McQueen the first black Oscar winning director…which would be a shock because though we rarely (=almost never) believe in splits, precursors actually support that scenario this year. Could it be the second year in a row that the precursor-king fails to win Best Director ? I guess based on precedent it could be just as likely as a consecutive split, no ?
2. If the Woody-scandal hurt Blanchett even a little it may have been around the exact time Harvey’s Dench-campaign was at an all-time high. All this around the time the voting went down. Timing could be everything here. I LOVE Judi Dench and I could not be angry if at 79 she FINALLY wins Best Actress, but boy, does Blanchett D-E-S-E-R-V-E this ?!
3. McConaughey is widely considered the frontrunner but if you think about it he may have peaked early, his big wins happened long before Oscar-voting started, in the voting-period all the talk was about Ejiofor’s momentum gain thanks to the Bafta-win (right at the beginning of the Oscar-voting period) and the VERY flashy last phase of the DiCaprio campaign with a bunch of perfectly timed articles (=love letters), featurettes, interviews etc.
4. I think the opportunity to honor the core trio of the Before-trilogy may just be to perfect to pass in Best Adapted Screenplay. Then again, does the Academy even give a fuck about the Before-trilogy ? Now THAT is the big question here.
Aaand, it’s a wrap, I listed all my favorite conspiracy theories 🙂 At the end of the day, the one thing I fear is that American Hustle will win awards it shouldn’t…everything else is pretty much fine by me.
Fun article. Is it me, or does this year have the makings of a 2003, with big spoilers almost likely (Polanski, Brody, Eminem)?
And I don’t think anyone hates Sandra Bullock. She’s old Hollywood. They did not “have to” award her last time. If Gravity loses, it’s not because Sandra was the wrong person/woman to headline it.
The best part of this season ending will be the end to the irrational Hustle hate. I can get why you’d say it has no story, but no plot? Hello, that thing was full of plot. You might think it was all smoke and mirrors, but there were a lot of plot developments. Things happened. Hustle, Dallas, Philomena, and even Wolf are the most heavily plotted Best Pic nominees. Slave has a very thin plot by comparison.
The problem with 12YAS is that too much of it plays out as a series of expertly executed cliches. I was disappointed that McQueen, whom I respect, could not find a fresher, more insightful way to present the material. (And, in my view, the decisions he made in adapting/altering the book almost guaranteed that the end product could not transcend what has become an important, but hackneyed, genre.)
Maybe it’s because I fall into the “under 25” category … but I haven’t spoken to a single peer of mine that “liked” AMERICAN HUSTLE at all. So overrated.
In my humble opinion, I’d go with Kirstin Thompson and call HGWMV not a “sweeping epic” but some of the best stuff John Ford has ever put on film, in these days truer than ever: neo-capitalist, like early capitalist excesses dispossesing me of my spiritual and geographical home.
Marshall, I would probably cite After Hours as Scorcese’s most blackly Catholic film, but that never scraped Oscar.
I can’t help but be one of those people that just hates David O. Russell. I liked The Fighter and SLP was entertaining and JLaw rocked it, but I just find him so irritating for some reason and I will always root against his films.
I barely made it 40 minutes into AH before turning it off, I really had no idea what I was watching, what it was about, why the female characters always wore suits that showed their boobs (was this really a common thing back then?). I feel like Russell hides behind casting, as Sasha put it, a bunch of likeable, popular white actors doing roles that are exactly made for them. No one has to stretch, no one has to try too hard to stand out. It’s all just so boring.
And while Goodfellas didn’t win BP, Scorsese certainly imbued plenty of Catholicism in his BP winner The Departed.
I think a bigger spoiler in Supporting Actress would be Hawkins, not Squibb.
^^ But Hawkins isn’t campaigning for it. I haven’t seen her anywhere…did she go to the Luncheon?
For the poster whining about Christian films being underappreciated, I would posit that Goodfellas was one of the most Catholic films ever feted by Oscar.
If Weinstein is behind 12yas , it will win for sure
12 Years a Slave will win best picture because it’s the kind of film that the Academy usually likes to honor: it’s about an important topic, it’s a period film, has a large cast giving phenomenal performances, and it has wonderful production elements. It’s old-fashioned, classic filmmaking–it tells a great story well. Also, people can feel good about themselves for voting for it. I hate to sound trivial because I think it’s a masterpiece and far away the best of the year, but it seems to me it’s the kind of film that often wins. I also think it might win either production design or costumes.
Although Gravity represents the future of filmmaking I wonder how many voters, especially actors, feel threatened by that. I think they’ll award Cuaron and the technical aspects but not best picture.
I disliked American Hustle so much I just can’t believe it could win best picture. It makes Argo look like a masterpiece. Why would it win when voters have such better choices to vote for? Her, Philomena and Wolf of Wall Street are far more substantial and deserving.
“12 Years a Slave” won’t win, that’s obvious. But more interesting is if it will lose to “Gravity” or to “American Hustle”.
“Does anyone think the academy will embrace contemporary Christian themed films? Now there’s a minority in Hollywood for you: Christian filmmakers composed of all races. How about affirmative action for them?”
I won’t align myself with ObamaWins’ response to the above comment because I’m not sure about byron e. gray’s religious beliefs. That said, there have been plenty of Christian themed films over the years. If, however, you’re referring to the newer Christian right, that’s really more a political issue where anything resembling affirmative action doesn’t apply. Any possible comparisons to underrepresented peoples of color or women, for example, is like apples to oranges.
“John C. February 26, 2014 at 3:46 pm
Anne Thompson said it best: :The reason that “12 Years a Slave” may prevail over all countervailing trends is that the academy thinks about how they want to be represented to the world. It’s not just what movie they like best. It’s what movie they want to like best.”
12YAS will win Best Picture, I have little doubt.”
THIS. Although my doubts might be a bit more than yours, John C., based on history. Not just AMPAS history. HISTORY.
12 Years won PGA as well, BAFTA, Golden Globes, BFCA! That’s not a powerful combo?
“It has PGA and DGA”, a powerful combo.
Yeah, about 819 PGA and DGA members get to vote for the Oscars out of almost 6000 people.
“It has the PGA and DGA. A powerful combo that really can’t be beat.”
Yeah, except that it has been, multiple times.
Also, I love how you don’t mention at all the lack of screenplay nominations (Oscar+WGA), which is actually THE most important reason (math-wise, at least) to bet against Gravity…
“12 Years a Slave – I predict this with zero confidence the film will win anything. I just don’t think they vote that way. They vote with their hearts and if they weren’t moved by 12 Years they are soulless to begin with. What can we expect of their hearts if they have no soul?”
Talk about disillusioned…
“Does anyone think the academy will embrace contemporary Christian themed films? Now there’s a minority in Hollywood for you: Christian filmmakers composed of all races. How about affirmative action for them?”
Hardcore Christians like you have been trying to use your fake “religious freedom” to discriminate. Who cares about Christian themed film?? Christians are not a minority, stop using that “I am the victim” card while you try to discriminate others. Christian themed films? You are out of your mind and pathetic.
I think a bigger spoiler in Supporting Actress would be Hawkins, not Squibb. She more than held her own in “Jasmine,” even getting great material in scenes without Blanchett and Blanchett is winning Actress so that’ll eke down support for Hawkins and if anyone benefits from a Lupita/Lawrence vote split, it’s her.
I agree it sucks that no African American filmmakers have been rewarded with Best Director yet, but let’s not completely ignore the fact that, if Cuaron wins on Sunday, it’ll be two straight years with a minority winning the award and 5 of the past 6 going to non-Americans (with the lone exception going to a woman). You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find the last time they gave it to your stereotypical white American Oscar winner. So frustrating as it is, at least there is some level of progress being made.
Wonderful predicts and thoughtful analysis.
One thing I respect and admire about Sasha and Nathaniel from Film Experience- they think OUTSIDE the box. They donnot rubber stamp their predictions like everyone else. Example? Sasha knows that The Great Gatsby is not just a lock for Production Design/Costumes like so many others are saying. She clearly knows voters may go elsewhere, despite what “everyone is saying”. Gatsby is not a liked film, and so yesterday. You’re telling me it’s going to win Production Design over 4 Best Picture nominees? THINK people THINK! Sasha knows this.
I also want to add that this could be the first Best Picture winner that Sasha has passionately rallied for since…I’m not sure actually. Last year, her and me both wanted Lincoln badly. Didn’t happened. The year before (2011)- I was out of town mostly, so didn’t follow her blog as much. 2010 she wanted Social Network, and The King’s Speech took it.
So I hope for passion sake, 12 Years a Slave prevails. Loved Gravity too, but 12 Years a Slave just feels more important, and will have more value in years to come.
Just my two cents, final predictions coming soon.
murtaza,
it’s David O. Russell’s third consecutive Best Picture nominee:
The Fighter – 2010
Silver Linings Playbook – 2012
American Hustle – 2013
Does anyone think the academy will embrace contemporary Christian themed films? Now there’s a minority in Hollywood for you: Christian filmmakers composed of all races. How about affirmative action for them?
imagine how awful they would be if we shut up.
“And good riddance! By far the most aggravating, ignorant an disrespectful season I have followed so far –only for troopers.”
What are you talking about? Nobody hardly even got into arguments. This was the mildest season I’ve seen in a long time.
AMPAS consists of a bunch of old white guys, many of whom are RETIRED from picture making. I bet a lot of them haven’t even been near a sound stage in years. (See recent demographic posted today.)
Anne Thompson said it best: :The reason that “12 Years a Slave” may prevail over all countervailing trends is that the academy thinks about how they want to be represented to the world. It’s not just what movie they like best. It’s what movie they want to like best.”
12YAS will win Best Picture, I have little doubt.
In short, they make movies that appeal to largely white, largely male majority. Tough luck for anyone else unless they, like Kathryn Bigelow,
^^
Ahhh….but the recent boxoffice is proving that black-themed, black casts are boxo winners (Ride Along, The Butler, Fruitvale Station, About Last Night, Think like a Man)….Hollywood is watching. There are so many black-cast movies in the works for this year and next year….and it means $$$ to Hollywood. So white male voters may not want to award the Oscar to a black-cast movie, but oh boy Hollywood wants to produce them!
Can we take a rest from the Oscar articles until Sunday? Pleez…
https://movies.yahoo.com/news/-sandra-bullock-to-make–70-million–at-least–for–gravity—exclusive-174707270.html
^^ Sandra Bullock – the $70 MIL woman….I betcha Angie is beating her head against the wall.
I appreciate that the preferential voting can throw up some safe and more accesible, less divisive films, but i just can’t see American Hustle winning BP. i can definitely see Gravity taking the Top 2, and 12 years winning both, or the split that is being canvassed – 12 years BP, Gravity BD. Faced with such sublime pieces of storytelling – passion projects such as 12 years and Gravity, American Hustle comes across far more pedestrian than an Argo or Artist. Hustle, would, going on past trends need to have at least screenplay and an acting award to probably also get that many #1 votes (i know that is entirely possible)
However, 12 years is not just an important film. It is a passionate one and a finely crafted one. Gravity is rich in symbolism, technical wizardry of the most brilliant kind. The King’s Speech which i really liked bu t didn’t love was old fashioned storytelling, not flash, but consumately told and performed. The Artist was a one trick pony, a construct that everybody and his dog (pardon the obvious reference) fell in love with. If the Academy could only give 1 Oscar to David O Russell’s personal project about mental illness (dedicated to his son) poor fellow; i don’t see them going gaga for a caper movie. Hollywood comes out of Argo looking great. Is AH going to make them feel good about themselves at all?
A catch 22 it may be for whether 12 years wins on Sunday, but as invested as you are Sasha (as you must be, or you would not have such a robust and lively site and involvement as yours), some detachment may be required after the final envelope is opened. At the end of that day, 12 years is a masterpiece of storytelling; one that will be referred to, revisited, utilised and revered as a GREAT MOVIE. You’ll notice I’ve used a lot of words starting with ‘R’ but not the obvious one.
I for one, want to appreciate its wonders regardless of the whims and wants of the Academy. If they ordain it – great! If they don’t – great.
My only disclaimer – if not 12 years, they are gonna wanna give it to Gravity. Cinema is about importance. It is about storytelling. It is about progression and ideas. A peak behind worlds that most of us have never seen or in some cases glad we have not. It transports. Even some of the ‘little’ films that have been my favorite for a given year, were about furthering humanity; exploring terrain previously not mined. It is what blows the mind or moves the heart, awakens the spirit.
I can’t wait to see Kim Novak. I wrote fan letters to her as a teenager.
About “AH”:
“It is the weakest of the nine.” -> LOL
“The plot really makes no sense” -> LOL
It will look like this:
“AH”: picture, original screenplay, supporting actress, costumes
“12 Years a Slave”: adapted screenplay
“Gravity”: director, cinematography, visual effects, score, sound mixing (or sound editing, but noth both), art direction
“Captain Philips”: sound editing (or mixing), editing
“Dallas Buyers Club”: actor, supporting actor, make-up
“Nebraska”, “Philomena”, “Wolf of Wall Street”, “Her”: nothing
I can live with most of the top2 variations in the main categories except two : David O. Russell wins in Original Screenplay and Jennifer Lawrence in Supporting Actress. Spike Jonze and Lupita Nyong’O are considerably more deserving in my opinion.
The Academy can shower Russell with nominations every year if that’s their thing, but I still don’t think his last three films warranted such unanimous praise and acclaim, I think it only made him ridiculously overrated.
I also firmly believe that the lovely and talented Jennifer Lawrence should NOT win a second consecutive Oscar at 23, mainly because I don’t think her performance was the best in the category, then there is the fact that it would seriously question the ‘Oscar’ system / credibility, not to mention she would probably face the kind of nasty backlash that could be very damaging for a young artist. She has raw talent and if she gets to do all kinds of roles in the future (and not just Katniss – IMO her best role/performance to date – AND your typical loud assshakinghairtossing Russell caricatures always hellbent on dressing for open heart surgery) she could become one of the best, but I don’t think she is there yet, I find her acting spotty at best right now. Sure she has great screen presence and raw talent but that doesn’t equal the kind of skill set one can only acquire through time, hard work, training and humility.
@keifer: The Academy does have members that have included such films as ‘Hot Tub’ and ‘Freddy Got Fingered’ and such in their resumes. Yes, it is about money. Keep as many movies being made and running in theaters as you can, and the money keeps coming in. Not all of their films are of the best quality, for sure. But if the studios were so picky, they would lose money faster than puberty hitting a teenager. But when those truly exceptional films are released, received, and recognized, that’s when they start earning credibility.
The thing is that people who are in it JUST for the money don’t really care so much about what they make. They take the jobs they can get. As a result, you might notice that not many of those filmmakers have very extensive resumes. It’s the filmmakers who are exceptional, and show the love of what they do in their work that get more jobs and become well-known. The better your films, the brighter your future as a filmmaker.
I should respect Sasha’s opinion on American Hustle. Nobody should be forced to love what they don’t love. But I can’t understand how it is the worst of the 9 nominees. To my eyes it’s more sophisticate and complete than Dallas Buyers Club, which is an example of completely generic, un-special filmmaking that had the great luck of having 2 actors in a state of grace. AH not only has a great cast, but also a deliciously freewheeling narrative and even more character detail.
AH has become the film that is cool to hate – it’s just an unassuming yet brilliant entertainment for adults. It is slight if compared to 12YaS or even HER, but hardly the deserving recipient of such vitriol just because it managed to win so many awards.
Shakespeare in Love, another lightweight comedy, won in the same year Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line (though NOT The Truman Show or Gods and Monsters) were nominated. I don’t remember it being so detested BEFORE it won…
The only two categories that don’t seem to have a solid consensus are Best Picture and Best Film Editing.
Best Picture: Gravity (still betting that this will take it)/12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Film Editing: Gravity (still betting this will take it)/Captain Phillips
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Best Score: Steven Price, Gravity
Best Animated Film: Frozen
Best Original Song, Let It Go, Frozen
Best Costume Design: The Great Gatsby
Best Production Design: The Great Gatsby
Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty
Best Documentary Feature: The Act of Killing
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club
Best Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects: Gravity
“All Over But the Shouting”?
And good riddance! By far the most aggravating, ignorant an disrespectful season I have followed so far –only for troopers. There’s at least TRUE DETECTIVE to look forward to this Sunday.
I’m glad you are taking a broader scope and correctly noting the racism and sexism and etc that exists in Hollywood not just the academy.
Here is the sad thing that no one is gonna want to hear and no one wants to hear- Hollywood is like that because a sizable portion of America is like that.
And if someone thinks it’s only the tea party or the red states that are, say, sexist, you live with your head in the sand. The society we live in does not want to see women in strong powerful roles. Most men don’t want it and even a large contingent of women don’t want to be asked to challenge themselves into being something other than a man’s thing, etc
Of course, Hollywood also produces films for the sizable contingent of us that are not like that, because after all Hollywood goes for every demographic.
But, make no mistake about it, the problems minorities face in Hollywood are only a reflection, and a microcosm at that, of the problems minorities and women face in our country generally.
Quiz. Of America (pop approx 310 million) or China (pop approximately America plus another billion souls), who has more people in jail?
Follow-up: how do the proportions of our imprisoned compare, when it comes to their races, to the races of our general population?
Hint: you won’t like the answers
^His last three films were BP nominees. So yeah, *he* has directed three consecutive Best Picture nominees.
How is that difficult to understand?
Sasha I love your write-ups, except your discussion of “American Hustle” is entirely ludicrous and in keeping with your tendency to be over-reactive and unfair to movies you would prefer not to win.
“People like it and people love it. Very few people hate it.”
Totally untrue. See this website. Far more divisive movie than 12 Years or Gravity. MANY people hate it.
“It takes zero risks.”
Seriously? The whole movie is a risk. This is the repeated incorrect facade about David O. Russell you see on this website — that he’s “standard,” or a copycat, or NOT a risk-taker. You may not like his movies, but you can’t say he’s not a risk-taker. And yet you do because you support 12 Years more (as do I).
“Sexy hot stars coupling, funny Jennifer Lawrence, tans and costumes – therefore it maintains zero baggage. Remember the words of Peggy Siegel, if you want to win Oscars you have to make movies “they” will want to watch.”
Nope, that’s not what American Hustle is. That’s not at all why it appeals to people. You may not like it all that much, but this is really a willfully incorrect discussion of the movie.
Sasha how is AH David o Russell’s third consecutive Best Picture nominee???????????
i believe there was no film of his nominated in 2011…
“The AMPAS is just that: An Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. They know their business. They know what to look for in a film in relation to the category in question.”
Are you kidding me? It’s about MONEY. These are the guys who make junk like “Hot Tub Time Machine”.
It’s odd how, during such a schizophrenic Oscar season with so much confusion as to frontrunner, many pundits have aligned recently with an awards narrative that seems to exist more from a need for sanity and order than as an accurate predictor. There seems to be a something of a consensus:
12 YAS: best pic, adapted screenplay, supporting actress
Cuaron: director, cinematography, visual effects, sound x2, score, maybe editing & art direction
Hustle: original screenplay
Capt. Phillips: probably editing
Gatsby: art direction/costumes
+ Blanchett, McConaughey, Leto
I’m tending to think that things will play out considerably differently but I’m not sure at this point just how. These potential outcomes include picture (Gravity or AH), supp. actress (J Law), screenplay (Philomena), song (U2), costumes (AH), and art direction (Gravity).
Instincts tell me that, if 12 YAS doesn’t win, the Academy will throw it a bone – maybe screenplay.
I’m going to sleep on it.
“Spike Jonze is one of the sweetest people in the business”
That made me laugh
From the sound of it, ‘Gravity’ would be the favorite to win Best Picture because it is the future of cinema. It’s revolutionary special effects and breathtaking cinematography only add to the incredible experience of the film. ’12 Years a Slave’, of course, would be the sentimental favorite…as well as the critical favorite. It has garnered nearly every single Best Picture award this season with the exception of a handful of nonconformists. Actually, the Academy tends to be more non-conformative istelf. Outside opinions do not matter to them. They are filmmakers, actors, producers, writers, editors, cinematographers, and so on. Someone’s opinion on what’s Oscar-worthy and what isn’t hardly merits awarding any one particular film. The AMPAS is just that: An Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. They know their business. They know what to look for in a film in relation to the category in question. It’s one thing to sit here and throw our two-sense into it. But only the Academy members know how this will turn out. Personally, I can’t wait to see it!
Nobody hates American Hustle??? That film has had more vitriol aimed at it than all of the others combined. It’s not the safe choice. That would be Gravity.
Sasha, your encapsulations of the best pictures are dead on. But I think you’re wrong when you say voters don’t hate “American Hustle.” A lot of them have expressed dismay that it’s doing so well when it clearly isn’t the caliber of the other movies. And I think they’re aware of the overwhelming Internet hate on the film, knowing that rewarding it over the other films would be worse than “Crash” over “Brokeback Mountain.” The Academy cares about their legacy. They can enjoy a movie but at the end of the day I don’t see them looking at “American Hustle” next to these other films and saying, “Yeah, that’s the deserving winner.”
This “consolation prize” talk really bugs me. If a voter likes a film, they vote for it in the categories they want it to win in. Therefore, if someone likes HUSTLE, they might give it supporting actress and actress and not feel the need to give it screenplay. Screenplay is a big deal–not a consolation prize. Every time HER has been up against HUSTLE–Globes, Critics Choice, WGA–it’s beat it. And even people who like HUSTLE acknowledge the script is the weak link. I really, really hope you’re wrong on this. And if it is a popularity contest, Spike Jonze is one of the sweetest people in the business. David O. Russell is…not.
“It all rests on Sandra Bullock. If you don’t like her, as many older males likely do not, they won’t vote for it.”
They liked her enough to give her Best Actress over Meryl a few years back…
They liked her enough to give her Best Actress over Meryl a few years back…
They had to that year.