Given that our Best Picture winner will most likely emerge by October or November at the latest, but usually by the time Telluride closes its doors (September), it’s hard to see any clear frontrunner at this point, at least none that is based in reality. Sure, you can read the tea leaves and look at Oscar predictions for fun, but keep it mind it has to be only for fun. Oscar winners can’t be predicted when no one has seen the film.
Since Oscar pushed its date back by a month, the entire film schedule was also pushed back. Since then, no Best Picture winner has emerged in the old model of Oscar releases (late December). By “emerged” that means seen by people either at film festivals or screenings. When the film is released to the public is mostly immaterial (unless it flat out bombs).
But even still, it’s hard to find even the de facto frontrunners this year. That is, films that scream Oscar from the outset. There isn’t a Munich or a Charlie Wilson’s War. So right now we can enjoy the moment before the moment everyone knows, or thinks they know, what will win.
I’m interested in what you AwardsDaily readers are thinking. I scoured the web for “sight unseen” Oscar predictions to find those poor films with the albatross already heaped upon their backs. Anyone predicting a movie to win right now is basically ensuring that movie won’t win because the expectations will simply be too high. Interesting, though, that Brad Brevet’s predictions at Rope of Silicon have Unbroken in first place to win Best Picture but Angelina Jolie is fifth place to win Best Director.
Let us know what you think in the poll after the jump.