“I feel like people are always talking about the business and how hard it is. But, [David] Fincher’s got a terrific movie. Alejandro’s got this movie. Wes [Anderson] has made one of his best movies ever. Richard Linklater made another great movie. Paul Thomas Anderson has made another great movie. Bennett Miller’s movie is incredible. Do you know what I mean? I mean like, c’mon. You can’t get cynical. I’ve been going to the New York Film Festival. Noah Baumbach’s got his movie. I’ve been going to the New York Film Festival every other night because there are so many. The Dardenne Brothers movie… what more do you want? How many good movies do you expect there to be?” Edward Norton talking to Indiewire
Some directors last. Some don’t. Some make you remember their names because each time they hold you in their capable hands in the quiet, dark calm of the movie theater they change you. The good ones do anyway. The best ones put their hands all over you, challenge your sensibilities, perplex you in unexpected ways. Not giving you what you want is often the best way to make a film. Because we judge movies by consensus on Twitter now and with various think pieces and/or social justice Tumblrs we often forget that art is not there to complete you.
The standout directors this year represent varying potential roads for the industry and Oscar voters. The Oscars put the period on the end of the sentence, claiming the right here, right now film to signify what captured their hearts and the zeitgeist to become worthy of being called one of the year’s best.
Throughout most of Oscar history, we’ve treated Best Picture and Best Director as conjoined twins. Splitting them was a rarity. The best picture was always credited to the director. In the silly awards community, this is somewhat “controversial.” I’m one of those who firmly believes that if it’s the year’s best picture the director should be the one who gets the credit. This is so with animated feature, documentary feature and the shorts. The director takes the credit. The only time they don’t is with the year’s top prize, where the producers take the credit.
The director is often awarded as a compliment to the year’s top film. Except when it isn’t. Though it’s rare, we’ve seen picture/director splits for the past two years. In 2012 the DGA announced after Oscar ballots were turned in. The consensus either had not yet congealed or the Academy’s choices for Best Director did not agree with that consensus. Either way, the two presumed “locks,” Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow, were not included on the list. Ironically, both films dealt with politics in the middle east. One comedically where Americans emerged the heroes. One more ambiguously, where Americans emerged victorious but lost. The combination of the likable alternative to the darker version of America, a popular actor who made good getting a perceived “snub” set the stage for a dramatic win for Argo, even without a Best Director nomination.
Once that extraordinary event happened, it seemed to represent an amicable “divorce” between Picture and Director. It suddenly seem fair game to judge picture and director differently, and/or to provide a simpler way to reward BOTH beloved films. In 2012’s case, Ang Lee became the default winner, topping the consensus favorite Steven Spielberg. Had Spielberg won, he would have joined an elite group of directors who won three Best Directing Oscars. Only three in all of their 87 year history have done it: John Ford, with 4, and William Wyler and Frank Capra with 3. Now, Ang Lee has won 2 directing Oscars (Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi) without his films winning Best Picture, another rarity shared only by George Stevens, who never won director the same year his film won picture (A Place in the Sun and Giant).
All the same, 2012 was not your usual split because the Best Picture frontrunner did not have a Best Director option. A true split happens when both are nominated and voters decide to split the vote. In Argo’s case they were going to choose it for Best Picture no matter what.
Last year, however, a more traditional split occurred, again breaking a historical record for “two splits in a row” and this time voters intentionally did it. Alfonso Cuaron would win for Gravity (which would then win the night’s most Oscars, seven in all) and 12 Years a Slave would squeak by with Picture, Screenplay and Supporting Actress. This same scenario played out in 1967 when voters settled on a split between In the Heat of the Night and The Graduate. But this split vote was traditional in the sense that the Best Picture winner won the night’s most Oscars, while The Graduate won a single Oscar: Best Director. While it happens that sometimes a film can win only one award for Best Picture and nothing else, it’s rare for a two-film race to give most of the Oscars to the film that wins Best Director but not Best Picture. Such was the case with Cabaret and The Godfather, and even 2012’s Argo and Life of Pi. It happens. It’s just not common.
The Academy’s small branch of 400 or so directors do seem to have their preferences when it comes to choosing great directors. For instance, they nominated Tom Hooper for the King’s Speech but have never nominated Christopher Nolan. The DGA nominated him three times — once for Memento, again for the Dark Knight and again for Inception. But the Academy? He’s been nominated twice for screenplay and once for producing Inception, which barely made it in with a Best Picture nomination on a ten nominee ballot in 2010.
While the DGA loves their success stories, the Academy tends to be more peculiar when it comes to choosing best. Generally, they fall in line with the DGA but lately they haven’t been. They chose Michael Haneke and Benh Zeitlin over Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck in 2012. Last year, Paul Greengrass got into the DGA but Alexander Payne was the Oscar branch’s choice.
Like Alfonso Cuaron last year with Gravity, and Ang Lee with Life of Pi, Interstellar fits nicely into what movies are likely to look like in the future: auteurs bringing that sensibility to effects movies, which aren’t traditionally the Academy’s favorite thing. The one thing these films all have in common, of course, is that they are both emotion driven and actor driven. That makes them acceptable to the Academy in ways that films like Avatar wasn’t.
But. Still. We’re talking about a version of Hollywood’s future that the actor-driven Academy might not be willing to give themselves over to. Some of them will make the jump easily — the composers, production designers, sound, animators, editors — while others aren’t going to go in so easily. For instance, last year’s win for Gravity for Director and Avatar’s massive popularity proved that writing isn’t the most important thing anymore. Visual effects can sometimes trump story. Also, fewer actors were needed to tell these stories. Again, visual effects trumped even the actors.
Many of the more traditional old-guard directors also might not be willing or even interested in throwing themselves into the effects-driven movies that are going to soon dominate the studios and multiplexes. Some of them don’t even like 3D yet. Making the leap to digital is one thing. Altering the art of storytelling, of the very fiber of filmmaking as we’ve known it for decades, is something else.
Therefore, we have once again two worlds converging on the Oscar race. Hollywood in the future and the grass roots traditionalism of what we used to call movies.
David Fincher’s Gone Girl and Alejandro G. Inarritu’s Birdman scratch the skin layer off the ways we have deceived ourselves in modern life by buying into illusions. Gone Girl is about avatar living, knowing that there is always a better you waiting online, an image you can carefully cultivate to advertise your happy life. Fincher and Flynn have scissored the pages of the book and pasted it back together as almost a satire of its source, removing what so many fans of the book turned to for some sanity. Fincher has hollowed out Amazing Amy but brought to life the monster. This subtle but significant adaptation has unearthed a lean, surreal masterpiece that it is not easily run through the Big Mac-o-meter for quick and easy understanding.
When the lights come up, Gone Girl demands you dig deeper to think about what you just saw without ever telling you exactly what you should be feeling. The chill it leaves you with takes time to shake off — but once you do, and if you go back and watch it again, a completely different movie emerges. Now you know where it’s headed, so watching the knot untangle backwards is an experience unmatched by any other film this year.
Fincher brings to this year’s Oscar race a career full of unpredictable turns, with critics not knowing exactly how to define his work. They want to say Gone Girl isn’t Se7en or Fight Club until they remember that those films were head-scratchers when they came out but over time resonate more brightly than they ever did. They want to say Gone Girl isn’t Zodiac, nor the one film they all could agree on as perfection, The Social Network. What they aren’t comfortable concluding yet is that he doesn’t do what Tarantino does — make essentially the same type of film that pulls the same types of ingredients from the bag. He doesn’t have a “return to mob” movies like Scorsese, or a “return to sappy sci-fi” like Spielberg. At best, they can conclude he is most interested in making his viewers uncomfortable, the one unifying theme of all Fincher’s films.
Gone Girl could be called a “departure” for Fincher — certainly it’s made money faster than any of his previous works and is on track to be highest earner — but the one thing it has that’s similar to his other films is that extraordinary eye for framing and that gift of insight that always looks for the alternative take, the unexpected reaction, resulting in a viewing experience where you have absolutely no idea what’s coming next and you can’t easily read the people you’re watching on screen.
Also departing from his usual oeuvre is Alejandro G. Inarritu, whose Birdman is filmed and edited to look like one long take. There are roughly 40 cuts, according to Kris Tapley, but they are seamless. With a drumbeat score and a rapid-fire script, Inarittu owes a debt to Chivo (his and Alfonso Cuaron’s Oscar winning cinematographer on Gravity) who captures the entirety of Birdman with what appears to be a handheld camera. Watching Birdman is a dizzying, electrifying experience, and unlike anything we’ve really seen from Inarritu.
Birdman, like Gone Girl is virtuoso directing by an artist at the top of his game, and another film in the race that slyly comments on the right here, right now of 2014. The question of relevance, and more importantly, how fame now can mean simply being filmed running through Times Square in your underwear and cheap stunts that go viral than offering up anything of substance to the gaping collective that waits, saliva dripping, for the next humiliation.
Both Fincher and Inarritu are are directors at the top of their game, working with masters of the craft from music to writing to acting to cinematography and editing. These are the type of films that Best Picture contenders are usually made from — a collaboration of various expert arms of the film industry.
The frontrunner in the category is Richard Linklater who has, as a writer and director, taken on a 12-year project with Boyhood. While Boyhood is not so much a departure for Linklater, it’s the realization of an entire career. It takes elements from so many of his films, and is complete with his soul brother and muse, Ethan Hawke, and is a rumination of life. Linklater is a writer and director who has not stopped asking questions, or wondering about the precious time we have in our too short lives. Boyhood is the only film that really captures that breathtaking speed of time passing before your eyes. To return again and again to the story, which feels like it was filmed in a couple of months.
Other films that are fictional accounts include Wes Anderson’s crazy/magical The Grand Budapest Hotel and the upcoming Into the Woods, and Interstellar. Wes Anderson, like Linklater, has yet to be embraced by the Academy, despite a growing and already impressive canon. The Grand Budapest Hotel defied expectations and made a good deal of money, surprising given its early release date. Gorgeous art direction, costumes, cinematography — this is a film that hails wholly from Anderson’s own imagination, much like Interstellar, where we will once again have the chance to deep dive into Christopher and Jonathan Nolan’s abstract storytelling set amid state of the art special effects.
Interstellar screens tonight but I won’t see it until tomorrow. Already it’s earning buzz and raves by those who have seen it, though the critics and voters haven’t yet gotten a crack at it. It’s sure to be the year’s highest grossing film, or close. It will have to beat Guardians of the Galaxy but if it does, it will do it without pre-branding, no easy feat these days.
The rest of the Best Picture race is made up of true stories, or bending the truth slightly stories. Most of those upcoming are of heroes — like Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, Ava DuVernay’s Selma, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper. Or films based on true events, like A Most Violent Year.
Bennett Miller heads for a nomination threepeat with Foxcatcher, possibly his third Best Picture nomination for the third film he ever made. Foxcatcher is one of two films based on a famous but heroic figure. Miller takes the story in a slightly different direction in that it’s easy to see what American has become through the lens of this film — the poor get screwed and the rich get away with it.
Miller’s own legacy is two great films, Capote and Moneyball. Foxcatcher makes three. It is being downgraded for Best Picture right now because pundits deem it “too dark” to make it in. The relatively unknown James Marsh (Theory of Everything), the Imitation Game’s Morten Tyldum, Ava DuVernay’s Selma, Tommy Lee Jones’ The Homesman, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, J.C. Chandor’s A Most Violent Year and Whiplash’s Damien Chazelle are the new kids on the block. Either all of them will get in, pushing the vets out the door, or they won’t. It’s tough to gauge right now.
One funny thing about this year is that pundits seem convinced that the Academy “is cool” on David Fincher when he’s been nominated twice already, and at the same time they have Christopher Nolan as a lock for Interstellar when he’s never been nominated. While I agree that, sight unseen, Nolan seems like a lock for the category, it would be a break from tradition if they went for it, which they probably will. You never hear pundits talk about their “Nolan problem,” though. Either they aren’t interested or they aren’t paying attention.
Even with Nolan’s collection of box office hits, only Inception has cracked the Best Picture lineup and it did it with ten nomination slots, not nine. Voters now have only five slots. They will pick their five favorites of the year. Right now, we have no idea what those will be because of so many late breaking movies that many of us have not seen. Still, money has a way of deciding things, at least where Best Picture is concerned. But it matters for Best Director now, too, after the past two years have given Best Director to an effects driven blockbuster.
Here is how Best Picture breaks down over ten years, from cost to domestic take. Split vote years are bolded.
2013 – 12 Years a Slave – cost $20 million/Domestic take $56 million
2012 – Argo – cost $44 million | Domestic take $136 million
2011 – The Artist – cost $15 million | Domestic take $44 million
2010 – The King’s Speech – cost $15 million | Domestic take $135 million
2009 – The Hurt Locker – cost $15 million | Domestic take $17 million
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire – cost $15 million | Domestic take $141 million
2007 – No Country for Old Men – cost $25 million | Domestic take $74 million
2006 – The Departed – cost $90 million | Domestic take $132 million
2005 – Crash – cost $6.5 million | Domestic take $56 million
(Ang Lee, BM’s box office take: $83 million)
2004 MDB – cost cost $30 million | Domestic take $100 million
2003 – ROTK cost $94 million | Domestic take $377 million
And this year?
Boyhood – cost $4 million | Domestic take so far $23 million and counting
Gone Girl – cost $61 million | Domestic take so far $111 million and counting
The Grand Budapest Hotel cost $30 million | Domestic take $59 million
Birdman – cost $18 million | Domestic take so far in limited release $538 thou and counting
Whiplash – cost $3.3 million | Domestic take so far in limited release $401 thou and counting
In the end, Best Director and Best Picture continue to be up in the air, with a few choice names leading the pack. Though it feels at once like we’re waging war against superheroes, it also feels like there’s more opportunity than ever before. It’s nearly impossible to do what David Fincher has done with Gone Girl, it must be repeated: create a studio movie starring an adult woman that is aimed at adults with an ambiguous ending and dark subject matter that can earn $100 million in three weeks? Maybe he’ll pry open a door that’s been closed for far too long. Open doors, open windows, new life, new light.
From what I’ve seen so far, it’s a pretty safe bet to list Richard Linklater (‘Boyhood’), Alejandro S. Iñaritu (‘Birdman’) in this race. That leaves three possibles yet to be determined. This field will be jam-packed with some greats this year. Some possibilities include Wes Anderson (‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’), J.C. Chandor (‘A Most Violent Year’), Christopher Nolan (‘Interstellar’), Peter Jackson (‘The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies’), Bennet Miller (‘Foxcatcher’), Paul Thomas Anderson (‘Inherent Vice’), and Tim Burton (‘Big Eyes’). Ridley Scott, though his career has been long and distinguished, will likely miss out yet again with ‘Exodus: Gods and Kings.’
Uhm, did PT Anderson run over somebody’s dog or something? How is Inherent Vice going unmentioned? Wasn’t its reception in New York largely favorable?
Evan, neither Slumdog Millionaire nor Return of the King have the sitting Best Actor winner, a recent Supporting Actress winner and a truly beloved/respected recent multiple nominee as their cast. I understand all the reasons why pundits and Oscar-watchers are hesitant to back Interstellar’s chances, but the writing is truly on the wall–Interstellar is nothing like the genre or Nolan have ever done before. You can’t base its chances on the reputations of those things.
The truth is that we already know Interstellar is going to be technically marvelous and is a heavy favorite in sounds/cinema/VE and possibly score. Essentially, all it needs to win what Gravity couldn’t is a great script.
While I get the whole February release problem, it’s a sad joke that Wes Anderson has never been nominated in the Best Director or Best Picture category. The same for Linklater. They have something like eight Criterion Collection movies between them.
I agree that Nolan should have been nominated by now, but a win is another thing altogether. Memento and The Dark Knight are particularly good. I’m looking forward to Interstellar, but it’s tempered by that fact that it stars McConaughey, someone I find a tad grating.
Foxcatcher is something I’m also eager to see, but I’m hoping it’s vibe is similar to Capote rather than Moneyball, which I found to be somewhat mediocre. I’d also like to see Miller try his hand with an original story. The second he tries one of his biopics starring a woman, his work will be scrutinized and then picked apart. Look at what happened with Jean-Marc Vallee…
Linklater and Inarritu deserve Best Director nomination . Fincher does not but I think he will be nominated anyway. I saw whiplash yesterday and was disappoined but the film is loved by others and may still receive a Bp and original screenplay noms. I do not predict until I see the movie.
Nolan has made only one great movie Momento. I hope Interstaller is great .
@PETE
Actually I agree that The Dark Knight’s 3rd act is subpar. I was pointing out that the critics had it #2 that year and Inception was also #2, which I consider one of Nolan’s 2 masterpieces, the other being Memento. TDK would be the 3rd if not for that 3rd act.
Chazelle? Really? fucking lol.
My current lineup, similar to a lot of other people’s:
Nolan
Linklater
Inarritu
Tyldum
Jolie
Also possible: Miller/Fincher/Eastwood.
Reasons why the others just aren’t happening:
Leigh – Mr. Turner is SPC’s third or fourth priority. And the British voting bloc, if it exists, will be gobbled up by The Imitation Game and Theory of Everything, which are their respective studios’ first priority.
Chazelle – Whiplash isn’t currently doing that great box office-wise, it’s small-scale, and it’s probably not going to be a top five contender. It can get a BP nomination, I guess? I just don’t see any of the precursors nominating him, and this isn’t a Zeitlin situation.
Chandor – A Most Violent Year is distributed by A24, which is a relative novice at this game. Plus it looks like a gritty, 70’s style crime drama. That’s definitely super baity for the Oscars. /sarcasm
Marshall – Is Rob Marshall
James Marsh – There just doesn’t seem to be any heat for him, which is weird, because his direction actually has better reviews than Tyldum’s. But Weinstein is doing his blood sacrifice dark magic on Tyldum’s behalf, and Focus hasn’t been pushing Marsh into the conversation.
Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel will be immensely lucky to get a single nomination, because it was released in February.
Dark Knight missed the nomination because its third act was subpar. The Nolan fanboys have no ability to view his films objectively.
This just goes to show how poor of a choice The King’s Speech was btw…all the way down at #7. The lowest ranked on end of the year lists to win BP in the last decade, even Million Dollar Baby and Crash were higher ranked…
2004-#6. Million Dollar Baby (205 lists; 33 top spots)
2005-#6. Crash (197 lists, 32 top spots)
2006- #1.The Departed (241 lists, 42 top spots)
2007- #1. No Country for Old Men (358 lists, 90 top spots)
2008- #3. Slumdog Millionaire (262 lists, 54 top spots) —— Should Have Been? 2. The Dark Knight (287 lists, 77 top spots)
2009- #1. The Hurt Locker (351 lists, 72 top spots)
2010- #7.The King’s Speech (182 lists; 17 top spots)
2011 – #3. The Artist (295 lists; 52 top spots)
2012- #4. Argo (305 lists; 44 top spots)
2013- #1.12 Years a Slave (464 lists; 117 top spots)
@JERRY
Inception wasn’t remotely good enough? Tell me, what’s the film at #2 on the Critics Top 10 compilation total?
http://criticstop10.com/best-of-2010/
“Inception could not have won with Nolan not nominated, not back then. Took someone of Affleck’s stature to break the curse.”
That’s sounds like baloney to me; in fact, Inception could not have won because it wasn’t remotely good enough.
Predictions:
Linklater
Inarritu
Nolan
Chazelle
Chandor
Ultimate predictions: Interstellar becomes a behemoth, but does not feel right for Best Picture, and consensus falls back on Boyhood for Picture/Director.
“If Interstellar becomes the film to beat, how could it not get acting nominations? Especially when it has two recent winners and another mulitple nominee?”
See also: Slumdog Millionaire, which answers the first question, and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, which answers the second. It’s particularly easy with genre pieces for the actors to slip out of conversation.
Also: Jessica Chastain, in the last 3 weeks or so on Goldderby, has gone from 100/1 to 50/1 and is now 25/1 in the Supporting odds.
K. Bowen is the only speaking any sense. There’s no way actors from Interstellar won’t be nominated. When there’s such broad support for a film the acting nominations just roll in if there’s even a hint of worthiness. American Hustle.
“If Interstellar becomes the film to beat, how could it not get acting nominations? Especially when it has two recent winners and another mulitple nominee?”
K Bowen, your question sums up exactly the intricacies of predicting the Oscars. Whenever something makes sense, it also doesn’t make sense. Angelina Jolie and Unbroken come to mind.
If Interstellar becomes the film to beat, how could it not get acting nominations? Especially when it has two recent winners and another mulitple nominee?
1. Christopher Nolan
2. Richard Linklater
3, Alejando Gonzales Innaritu
4. Bennett Miller
5. Morten Tyldum
Harry Potter aside I count 2011 as one of the worst Best Picture lineups that Oscar has ever chosen anyways. THREE films with sub 80 Metacritic and BFCA scores got in, while Deathly Hallows Part 2 held a very respectable 87 and 93 and received nothing but 3 tech nominations. Such blasphemy, it blows my mind…
@BRYCE
“Certainly not you. I’m only noticing here, but mainly at other sites that the very same people who in 2011 were trying to shove down everyone’s throat the inevitability of DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 earning seventeen nominations and winning Best Picture two years in a row because the franchise -at that point- had been “robbed” of countless Oscars, are now full-force behind INTERSTELLAR too. I was never my intention to generalize about every single Harry Potter/Chris Nolan fan, that would be like half of earth’s population. Sorry if it came across that way.”
Hah, actually I was one of the most vocal about Potter around here in 2011, but you have to understand why. A lot of it comes down to competition between LotR and HP. With HP we had a franchise that the film adaptations had been consistently good but never quite a home run. As the series progressed the film making continued to improve and some of us actually thought the 6th film had done enough to earn the respect of Oscar. (it was nominated for cinematography at least…) Part 1 of the final film we knew would be complaints about it not feeling complete, as stupid of a thing to say as it was for critics and others alike. And then FINALLY with Part 2 they hit it out of the park. 100% approval of Top Critics! This was unprecedented for a film of its kind; not even the mighty LotR films could claim this same feat. We thought for sure that was the year they bestow us all the Oscars and honor the series like they did LotR fans with RotK. But alas, Harry Potter never got this same level of respect and praise that it deserved. In my opinion it is a bigger tragedy that The Dark Knight being snubbed and I’m still bitter about it. Years from now I hope people look back and wonder how the best reviewed film of the year was hardly a blip on Oscar’s radar…
My guess is that Interstellar won’t get any acting nominations. The buzz about Chastain as a supporting actress nominee was so 3-4 weeks ago. Doesn’t the most up-to-date buzz suggest she probably won’t happen? Kris Tapley, for example, who has seen the movie, recently posted that he doesn’t expect either Chastain or Hathaway to get nominated. (Not that one should base his/her Oscar picks solely on what Kris says.) But wasn’t Kris really trumpeting a Chastain nomination just last month?
Anyway, I’m reading more and more that suggests Chastain is unlikely. Hathaway was never really in the discussion for Actress. And McConaughey, who has probably the best chance for an acting nomination in the cast, has the toughest category and would have to muscle out some pretty weighty contenders. I’m not sure I see it happening. Possible, I suppose, but…
I think Innaritu should win but not because Birdman is the best movie of the year – it’s just the best directed. Original, creative, visionary and bold.
I agree that Linklater, Iñarritu, and Nolan seem like locks. The other two will, in my opinion, come from Miller, Tyldum, Jolie, and Fincher.
Because of the Harvey factor and my belief that Unbroken will be huge, I’ll go with Tyldum and Jolie. If Unbroken falters, and folks are starting to question it given it’s promotion, I’ll put Miller on the fringe. The Globes will probably give him a boost given that it has been received well abroad.
i want to see Alejandro win for all the good reasons
Well it should be very interesting to watch the Tomatometer and Metacritic as the official reviews start to flood the net on Monday. Interstellar has climbed another point on the BFCA site to 98 putting all others behind it right now!
Benutty, thanks for that information. It’s definitelly true that James Marsh and Morten Tyldum aren’t recognizable names, and Mike Leigh is.
As for why I’m a bit fearsome of American Sniper is from what Sasha had said about it in the last Oscar Podcast. If it turns out that American Sniper really does focus more on Chris Kyle’s transition home, and not more of his story of being a sniper in Afghanistan and Iraq, I think it could suffer. But regardless, I’ve been looking forward to American Sniper since the moment I heard that Clint Eastwood was directing.
Al, Mr. Turner’s buzz has definitely gone silent, but I think it’s tough to forget the demographics of AMPAS + their love for constantly reaffirmed love for Leigh + the British vote. It’s a great film–gorgeous in fact, and it is likely to pop up in enough below-the-lines (possibly win them) that I think a BP nomination might become hard to avoid. On a related note, the only buzz that remains for The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything (arguably Mr. Turner’s closest competitors if we go by the British vote thing) is from festival-goers and from my perspective a lot of that buzz has worn off and will continue to wear down. I don’t see either film being as big of a smash with general audiences in ways that, say, The Artist or The King’s Speech were, each having entirely different campaign narratives.
What exactly ARE the campaign narratives for TIG or TTOE? Both are unrecognizable directors with actors that had buzz in previous years that amounted to nothing. The only tested element from either film is Keira Knightley and she couldn’t even drum up an acting nomination for BP-nominated Atonement.
Benutty, yeah, as we go through these last few months here, my predictions are gonna mentally feel less and less stable, but perhaps some films will confirm themselves, and become “locks”. Right now I think the two biggies are Boyhood vs. Interstellar. I think there’s a chance for Mr. Turner, but it’s been so quiet since Cannes.
Al, I think your last two are the most questionable inclusions. My predictions have them replaced by Mr. Turner and American Sniper. The only way Unbroken happens is if it isn’t awful. I’m banking on it being awful and from my perspective all signs point to it being awful. I also think Foxcatcher’s place is on shaky ground and could easily be replaced by A Most Violent Year. I think Eastwood and Leigh replace Fincher and Jolie in Director. Nolan/Interstellar win for sure. Boyhood fans set streets on fire.
In taking a safe approach to this guessing game, I think these will be the 9 Best Picture nominees, and the 5 Best Director nominees.
* – Best Director nominee / ** – Best Director winner / #Best Picture winner
Birdman / Alejandro G. Iñárritu*
Boyhood / Richard Linklater*
Foxcatcher / Bennett Miller
Gone Girl / David Fincher*
The Imitation Game / Morten Tyldum
#Interstellar / Christopher Nolan**
Into the Woods / Rob Marshall
The Theory of Everything / James Marsh
Unbroken / Angelina Jolie*
I agree with the above post on these three AMPAS director snubs:
2006- Children of Men
2010- Shutter Island
2011- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The directors were all at the top of their form and deserved nominations for these movies.
They also totally ignored one of Polanski’s greatest films, The Ghost Writer, a few years ago. European Film Awards showered this movie that year . . . AMPAS nominated it for NOTHING.
Looks like my sight unseen prediction of Chris Nolan may just work out
Unlikely hood,
I can get behind that more sensible interpretation.
“Bryce, you appropriated all of my comments into a longer, listier one”
Sorry, I lost you meaning. You mean I summarized everything you’ve been saying in several comments in a single one?
“I’m not sure who else you’re referring to Bryce, but I have been as much of a Nolan fan for years as I have been a Harry Potter fan. I was a fan of Nolan before he really became popular, before Batman.”
Certainly not you. I’m only noticing here, but mainly at other sites that the very same people who in 2011 were trying to shove down everyone’s throat the inevitability of DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 earning seventeen nominations and winning Best Picture two years in a row because the franchise -at that point- had been “robbed” of countless Oscars, are now full-force behind INTERSTELLAR too. I was never my intention to generalize about every single Harry Potter/Chris Nolan fan, that would be like half of earth’s population. Sorry if it came across that way.
LC, to me the funniest part of that tweet was how it so slightly takes a dig at Inarritu and Birdman, which most of the media keeps referencing Rope with.
Bryce: agreed. Though IF Nolan wins BD and IF Boyhood or some non-Interstellar wins BP, I think the distorted/received wisdom – based on the last two years – will be more along the lines of: Best Picture is for statements/drama, Best Director is for fluid blockbuster work that proves able to manage below-the-line talent to their own awards (VFX, Sound Editing, etc)
With that being said, as you may know Hitchcock is my favorite all time director, so this was the most exciting tweet last night for me…
Todd Nonnenberg @ToddNonnenberg
Saw #Interstellar tonight..Nolan is the modern day Alfred Hitchcock. His films and legacy will only improve with time
If this film is truly as great as most are saying, I don’t care that he hasn’t even made a dozen films, it will catapult him into the Hall of Fame of directors in my opinion. Nolan might make a bad film one day, but so far his track record is virtually flawless if you ask me, which shit even Hitchcock made a few stinkers…
LC’s Hall of Fame Directors:
Alfred Hitchcock
Billy Wilder
Frank Capra
Howard Hawks
Stanley Kubrick (though I don’t care for a number of his films I do have to admit the man had talent)
Clint Eastwood
Steven Spielberg
Martin Scorsese
Christopher Nolan, your spot awaits! 🙂
The Academy failed to nominate Nolan, but overall I prefer their choices over the DGA selection. The directing branch of the Academy tries to include directors from foreign countries and smaller films, the DGA tends to go for the big names.
Let’s not forget Catalina Sandino Moreno in the growing list of Interstellar supporters LOL: https://twitter.com/CataSan007/status/525176038905495552
“BRYCE FORESTIERI
OCTOBER 24, 2014
“I’m guessing it’s going to be Linklater vs Nolan round the last turn”
Should be a bloodbath for the ages, Steve. I think even the Harry Potter mob are conspiring on behalf of Nolan this year.”
I’m not sure who else you’re referring to Bryce, but I have been as much of a Nolan fan for years as I have been a Harry Potter fan. I was a fan of Nolan before he really became popular, before Batman.
Bryce, you appropriated all of my comments into a longer, listier one.
“this fractiousness in the Top Two may be the New Normal.”
Sure hope not if it’s going to encourage/validate statements like “In my opinion, it was the best directed film of the year, but not quite the best one” and other variations of the misconception.
Kane, to be perfectly honest I did cry the first time I saw 2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY; not straight up sobbing, but I did tear up as Frank was jogging in the centrifuge I must have been 14-15 years old, I could not contain the joy on a mere middle-sized TV screen — and contrary expectation, I have never cried during a Spielberg movie, as arresting as I’ve found them.
I agree that Inception could not have won without a BD nom, then. But the fact that the 400 member directors branch did not nominate the film does not negate the fact that it demonstrably (4 Oscar wins, lotsa noms) had wide support in the academy and would likely have been nommed in a five film BP regime. That it did not need 9-10 nominees to get in.
I am not an advocate for the Inception, btw. Too much talky exposition for my taste and I am guessing that Interstellar will be more of the same.
We should take note that Warner was Inception’s studio and Interstellar is Paramount, a much less successful Oscar studio over the last decade.
I’ll be rooting for Nolan (assuming his work is deserving, of course). No director has ever won for a SF flick.
If Best Picture and Best Director are a marriage, this decade has basically been George and Martha in Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
In 2010 and 2011, voters proved they didn’t care about auteur stature, instead handing statues to Hooper and Hanavicius. In 2012 and 2013, voters proved flexible enough to split the two awards between two films.
So when you say that you think they’ll patch up this marriage and lean auteur, I wonder if that’s based on thinking that went out the door five years ago. You know, kind of like how you look back on the quality preferences of the Departed-NCFOM-Hurt Locker era as bygone days. Or time before America swung each election to the opposite party.
Sure, let’s hope for the triumphant return of the homecoming king and queen. But I dunno…this fractiousness in the Top Two may be the New Normal.
Full stop, Bryce. I’ll probably be crying during Interstellar. Astronomy and space travel have been a deep seeded passion of mine since I was in middle school. Throw in some Spielbergian family elements and the grandiose infinite/unknown of Kubrick and you’ll have a twentysomething white man with no more tears left in his body.
“I’m guessing it’s going to be Linklater vs Nolan round the last turn”
Should be a bloodbath for the ages, Steve. I think even the Harry Potter mob are conspiring on behalf of Nolan this year.
Meanwhile a quick twitter search yielded me three grown men crying at last night’s screening. Grown white men. I know I’ve been sticking with INTO THE WOODS all this time, but it might be too late by the time it arrives.
https://twitter.com/firstshowing/status/525505565464985600
https://twitter.com/ErikDavis/status/525629075117715457
Perfect storm?
So if this thing materializes we’re talking:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Original Screenplay
Best Film Editing
Best Original Score
Best Cinematography
Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Editing
Best Production Design
Best Visual Effects
And then you have Chastain which is almost a given at this point, and if Academy members cry maybe McCounaughey (solely going by McConaughey bawling in the trailer here). So that’s potentially 12 Noms? We’ll know the truth tonight when Sasha sees it.
My predictions:
Linklater
Inarritu
Fincher
Chazelle
(some director from the films we haven’t seen).
You mean – NOLAN
“PAUL
OCTOBER 24, 2014
Inception got a 94 and that didnt help Nolan.”
Hmm, I seem to remember Inception scoring Nolan’s first Best Pic nom, did I imagine that? So anyways, TDK is actually Nolan’s previous high with 96 and while that obviously is one of the biggest snubs in Oscar history I think everyone will pretty much agree that with more than 5 nominees it get in…
Bob Inception could not have won with Nolan not nominated, not back then. Took someone of Affleck’s stature to break the curse.
My predictions:
Linklater
Inarritu
Fincher
Chazelle
(some director from the films we haven’t seen).
‘ONLY at 95 right now…’ lol
Inception got a 94 and that didnt help Nolan.
Correction, it puts it tied with solely Boyhood; Birdman is only at 95 right now.
So did anyone else notice twitter blow up with Interstellar praise from the screenings even though there was supposed to have an embargo? Lol…and just now Interstellar has surged onto the BFCA chart with a debut score of 96! That puts it in a 3 way tie with Birdman and Boyhood for top of the year!
Inarritu
Leigh (No Guts No Glory)
Linklater
Nolan
Tyldum
Shooting blind right now, but I’m guessing it’s going to be Linklater vs Nolan round the last turn. As both directors are also producers on their films, a split is not only likely, but a good idea.
Inarritu will have his year next with The Revenant. As will Leo. Though I suspect Van Sant & McConaughey will give them some stiff competition. It’ll be LOL to watch DOR desperately sniffing around again for his Oscar in whatever category he can squeeze Joy into. Bad move on Scott for being the third space film in a row to come out with awards hopes–while The Martian is great material for a film, and is stacking up a great cast, it’s coming out one year too late and voters will have sci-fi fatigue.
Nolan has Director in the bag. I was cool on Interstellar’s chances at Writing, but I think that’s pretty much sealed up now, too. Picture, locked. McC, Hathaway and Chastain are all starting to look like nomination likelihoods, and Chastain will probably win (sorry, Arquette fans–I happen to think she was one of the worst parts of a very boring Boyhood). VE, PD, SM, SE, FE, Sc & Cin all to Interstellar. That’s 11 wins 🙂
its clearly between 3 directors.
linklater, innaritu and nolan. no one else is getting a sniff.
i dont go in for the “so and so is owed an oscar” narrative, but out of those 3, clearly linklater and nolan are “owed”. innaritu’s films are polorising and this seems to be his first universally loved film. meanwhile linlkater has been defining indie filmmaking at its best since the early 90’s. hard to argue against him. same for nolan. he has been making blockbusters at their best.
i guess it then comes down to nolan and linklater.
i go for linklater cause he’s been around longer but i would be equally as happy for nolan. intersellar looks magnificent visually.
“Because we judge movies by consensus on Twitter now and with various think pieces and/or social justice Tumblrs we often forget that art is not there to complete you.”
I don’t disagree with this statement, but it’s an interesting one to analyze in the context of the consensus reaction to Boyhood, which most people seem to love because of its relatability/how it completes them.
Its interesting that some woman are always complaining about the lack of female directors in the race. This year Jolie seems the best bet and we go to goldderby and Thelma Adams is the only one who has Jolie in her list. . Ava doesnt count because despite being brilliant she was always a long shot as the last sreenings from Selma seems to indicate.
Well at least there HAVE been screenings of Selma.
Linklater
Tyldum
Innaritu
Miller
Nolan
Alt.. Jolie, Fincher or Eastwood
Bob Burns
^This times 1000! Let’s make splits a tradition, unless there’s really one film that undeniably towers above the rest, but most years there are 2 or 3 films that end up having a real shot at BP. Those 2 or 3 should share the biggest prizes: BP, Dir, Scrp or a couple Acting Prizes depending on their strengths.
Wes Anderson should be in. He’s among the best technical directors, and there are few if any films this year that tie together all the elements to create a unique personal vision as well as The Grand Budapest Hotel. But that’s been true for the past 20 years, so I don’t know why the Academy would start now.
Inarritu is the other one I’ve seen so far that is great. But I disagree with him about Hollywood and “cultural genocide.” I just think that’s an easy and not-entirely-accurate criticism.
Fan of Linklater on the whole, but not so much Boyhood.
Hmm – no PTA in the poll? I’d better go find my glasses
I am very much in favor of the split between BP and BD because it recognizes that, at these elevated levels of excellence, there are several movies entitled to be called “Best”. Coupling the awards makes BD irrelevant, or, more accurately, just a trophy.
Inception did not squeak in. It won four Oscars and was arguably the #2 Oscar film.
To quote *Crowe the yr the great “Cinderella Man” opened in the summer of 2005, it may still be a bit premature to oddsmake *Oscar? Although the top (early) contenders may well be Linklater, *Jolie & Innaritu
It was really hard to pick one, I wanted to vote for 4 best directors! Nolan, linklater, fincher, and Inarritu.
Jolie
Nolan
Iñárritu
Linklater
Tyldum
I feel like we could see another Picture/Director split, since while I have no idea what could win BP at this point, Linklater seems like a stronger and stronger candidate. He’s a lock for a nomination since his peers will respect the incredible 12-year commitment the project; the average Academy voter likely be similarly impressed since it’s such a great “Oscar narrative.” I’m not sure if that same narrative is enough to carry Boyhood itself to Best Picture, yet for Linklater, it might be enough.
My votes went to Linklater, Innaritu, Jolie, Chazelle and Nolan, though if I had to hazard a firm guess, I’d say Nolan is out and one of Marsh/Tyldum will be in. There are still so many unknowns in the BD race that it’s very hard to make a pick…I’d say Linklater and Innaritu are the likeliest nominees, the other three slots are totally up in the air.
While the Academy has yet to recognize Nolan as a director, they’re very aware of who he is. Forget his screenplay nominations, Nolan will always have “the guy who inspired AMPAS to change the Best Picture field” on his resume.
Globes:
Jolie
Nolan
Inarritu
Fincher
Rob Marshall
DGA;
Jolie
Nolan
Inarritu
Linklater
Fincher
BAFTA;
Nolan
Tyldum
Inarritu
Leigh
Marsh
LAFC: Inarritu
NYFC; Bennett Miller
Board of Review: Nolan
Oscar:
Jolie
Nolan
Tyldum
Inarritu
Linklater
Based on it’s predecessors, Mockingjay will end up grossing more than Guardians in the US with around 400M. It would be pretty shocking, but also very nice to see Interstellar top that. As for worldwide grosses, unless The Hobbit breaks out for it’s finale ala The Return of the King, Transformers should unfortunately remain the highest grossing film.
No James Gunn for Guardians of the Marvel Cinematic Universe?!??!
– Watermelons
Why so much hype over Unbroken? Nobody has even seen it yet and it did not premiere at any of the major film festivals either. T. Jolie’s PR team will definitely push for a GG, but maybe not the Oscars. ITLOBAH was shit, yet it somehow managed to get a GG nom for Best Foreign Film. If Jolie gets a bunch of Oscar noms for Unbroken, then we know she paid big money for those nominations. The Academy is willing to hand out awards to her like candy but they wont nominate Christopher Nolan, an actual talented director? ITLOBAH was a crap film. I don’t expect Unbroken to be that good from viewing the trailers. She might have gotten the Cohen brothers to help her out, but don’t think it will help her get into the Oscars.
I think its going to be
1. Linklater
2. Nolan
3. Inarritu
4. Miller
5.Eastwood/Jolie (one of the two)
I’d love to see Fincher nominated, but right now im just not feeling it. I hope to be proven wrong though.
Ridley Scott’s new movie looks like a CGI video game.
Hoping for Nolan.
If it’s going to be screened starting now, I’m guessing the spoilers are going to be almost unavoidable.
Tim Burton (Big Eyes) is missing from the poll. He’s long overdue. Heck, I would even add Ridley Scott for Exodus and Woody Allen for Magic in the Moonlight (no matter what those stern self-righteous critics say).
Heyyy now I came here for the poll and I want one now. This is not fair.
High concept films heavy on special effects and trickery have won three out of the last four BD prizes (King’s Speech being the outlier). So, does this mean the Academy views directing as a purely technical exercise, or will we see a mild change in course. If it’s the former, than Interstellar and Birdman will be sitting pretty, if it’s the latter then Bennett Miller and Richard LInklater stand to benefit. Critics’ prizes really will be shaping this year in a big way.
Let’s get serious for a minute.
Bennett Miller, Paul Thomas Anderson, David Fincher
Give me certainty that two of those three will make the final five. Do it and everything will be OK.
Why is this labeled a poll?
Is this FINALLY Nolan’s year? We should know soon enough…
I have enjoyed following the race quite a few years and a part of me says why care about the Oscars? They rarely pick the films I love, and just about every year I start to wish they would get with the program a little more and recognize the films that the general public (as well as the critics) feels strongly about (the final Harry Potter is the best example, it was 100% top critic rated even!) but year after year I continue to champion these films, enjoying the process and following the latest developments throughout the year, inevitably being let down time and time again lol.
Nolan is my best hope and Inception proved that they are opening up to him, but with the director snub that year it’s clear they haven’t completely warmed up to Nolan (yet), as opposed to the DGA that have nominated him 3 times. Is Interstellar the one that really breaks though?
I guess you could say my tastes lean more towards quality popular fare when it comes to modern day films, and I’ve been quite disappointed over the last decade with snubs like…
2004- Before Sunset
2005- Batman Begins
2006- Children of Men, The Prestige, V for Vendetta, Inside Man
2007- The Bourne Ultimatum, Zodiac, Gone Baby Gone
2008- The Dark Knight
2009- Star Trek, 500 Days of Summer
2010- The Town, Shutter Island, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
2011- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2012- Skyfall, The Hunger Games, The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers
2013- Frozen, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Now yes, I do realize that the Academy rarely goes for this type of stuff and I inevitably tend to end up watching most of what they do nominate (saw 4/5 in ’05, 5/5 in ’07, 3/4 in ’08, 9/10 in ’09, 9/10 in ’10, 8/9 in ’11) and yes they have chosen some good to really great films at times, but in the past decade I have been sooo disappointed and only 2 of the nominees can I count among my all time favorites (Inception and True Grit)
I’m hoping this year yields another one or two. For me Fincher and Linklater have already delivered and it’s time now for Nolan, Scott, and Eastwood to join them.