If you go by who’s been nominated for and who has won what – here is how it’s looking so far. The Gurus of Gold have also put out their Best Picture and Best Director picks for the week, before the big film critic week that’s coming up and all of the big announcements. Here we go. You ready?
Precursor list with the major and minors so far – first without Peter Travers:
TIFF audience award | Gothams | NYFCC | NBR | Golden Satellites | |
Boyhood | ++ | * | * | ||
Birdman | ++ | * | * | ||
The Imitation Game | ++ | * | * | ||
Gone Girl | * | * | |||
A Most Violent Year | ++ | ||||
ALPHABETICAL | |||||
American Sniper | * | ||||
Inherent Vice | * | ||||
Fury | * | ||||
The Grand Budapest Hotel | * | ||||
Love is Strange | * | ||||
Mr. Turner | * | ||||
Nightcralwer | * | ||||
Selma | * | ||||
The Theory of Everything | * | ||||
Unbroken | * | ||||
Whiplash | * |
Next, if you factor in Peter Travers:
TIFF audience award | Gothams | NYFCC | NBR | Golden Satellites | Travers | |
Boyhood | ++ | * | * | ++ | ||
Birdman | ++ | * | * | * | ||
The Imitation Game | ++ | * | * | |||
Gone Girl | * | * | * | |||
A Most Violent Year | ++ | |||||
The Grand Budapest Hotel | * | * | ||||
Selma | * | * | ||||
Unbroken | * | * | ||||
Whiplash | * | * | ||||
American Sniper | * | |||||
Inherent Vice | * | |||||
Foxcatcher | * | |||||
Fury | * | |||||
Interstellar | * | |||||
Love is Strange | * | |||||
Mr. Turner | * | |||||
Nightcrawler | * | |||||
The Theory of Everything, Focus Features | * |
And here is how the films that have opened are stacking up so far with the critics.
Metacritc | Rotten Tomatoes | BFCA | Total | Box Office | |
Boyhood | 100 | 99 | 96 | 295 | 24m |
Whiplash | 87 | 96 | 93 | 276 | 3m |
Birdman | 89 | 94 | 91 | 274 | 17m |
The Imitation Game | 91 | 85 | 91 | 267 | 579K* |
The Grand Budapest Hotel | 88 | 92 | 87 | 267 | 59m |
Love is Strange | 83 | 97 | 86 | 266 | 2m |
Nightcrawler | 76 | 95 | 88 | 259 | 28m |
Gone Girl | 79 | 88 | 90 | 257 | 161m |
Foxcatcher | 83 | 86 | 85 | 254 | 2m |
The Theory of Everything | 72 | 81 | 87 | 240 | 10m |
Interstellar | 74 | 73 | 80 | 227 | 149m |
Fury | 64 | 78 | 83 | 225 | 82m |
And the ones that haven’t opened yet and still have limited information because not all of the critics have rung in.
Have not yet opened: | Metacritic | RT | BFCA | Total |
Selma | 98 | 100 | 93 | 291 |
Mr. Turner | 95 | 96 | 77 | 268 |
A Most Violent Year | 86 | 93 | 86 | 265 |
American Sniper | 66 | 79 | 85 | 230 |
Inherent Vice | 84 | 74 | 67 | 225 |
Unbroken | 59 | 53 | 82 | 194 |
The only suspense right now in the race is whether or not David Fincher’s smash hit will be a big Best Picture player or not. I guess you could ask the same thing about several other movies out there in the mix. But smart money is on the Fincher pick as being one of the sure bets of the season. At least, that’s how I see it but I could be blinded by love – you all know how I get. Ahem.
Beyond that, the first three are solid picks from all pundits. Then you have the word of one pundit against the other. In this corner — Anne Thompson, Kris Tapley, Scott Feinberg, Mike Hogan, Thelma Adams, Thom Geier, Tariq Kahn, Jenelle Reilly Dave Karger all saying “no” to Gone Girl.
In the other corner, Yours Truly (of course), Susan Wloszczyna, Glenn Whipp, Peter Travers, Jeff Wells, Nicole Sperling, Keith Simanton, Anne Thompson (who is having it both ways – on her site she says no but on Gold Derby and Movie City News she says yes), Paul Sheehan, Steve Pond, Kevin Polowy, Tom O’Neil, Michael Musto, Mary Miliken, Scott Mantz, Matt Atchity, Mike Cidoni at Gold Derby.
And here is how it’s shaking down at Gurus of Gold:
Either way, let’s see how it all goes down after the weekend. We will continue to check in with our precursors chart as the season wears on. And on. And on.
OK, I’ll make an attempt at predicting the BP nominees as well – no explanations, I don’t want any trouble. 🙂 Just what I think they will be – 9 of them, as I still think it’s the most likely number, although I could see just 6-7 happening, but I doubt it:
Boyhood
Birdman
Selma
Gone Girl
Unbroken
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
The Imitation Game
Possible alternates: Into the Woods, The Theory of Everything. I expect I’ll stick with these predictions for quite a while (I’m too lazy at this time of year to reconsider, anyway).
“I have a sneaky feeling that Gone Girl is going to be the surprise with more nominations that expected.”
Yup, loads of acting nominations is what I expect.
On the subject of Metascore:
I would like to inform you that you have to see in the assessment of the reviews all the votes in the correct proportions. From UNBROKEN there are only 11 Reviews so far, that’s not many. And so we have to wait at least another 40 reviews in order to obtain a real comparison and valid Metascore.
That’s why I think that UNBROKEN in Metascore is still gigantic set in the coming days and weeks after the film was seen by more people.
BOYHOOD: METASCORE 100
Universal acclaim based on 49 Critics
Critic score distribution:
Positive: 49 out of 49
Mixed: 0 out of 49
Negative: 0 out of 49
UNBROKEN: METASCORE 59
Mixed or average reviews based on 11 Critics
Critic score distribution:
Positive: 5 out of 11
Mixed: 6 out of 11
Negative: 0 out of 11
I never really predict but I’m going to do ten predictions for Best Picture because honestly at this point, I think the Gurus are just being stubborn. The buzz has shifted but they’re sticking to their guns. I don’t know if it’s to save face or to try to force a thing. I’m going to put mine in the order that I would put money on them. Meaning, if I put a long shot higher in the list, it’s because I’m a high roller. And I’m going to include what I haven’t seen even if it’s unnatural.
BIRDMAN
BOYHOOD
NIGHTCRAWLER
THE LEGO MOVIE
INHERENT VICE
GONE GIRL
WHIPLASH
INTERSTELLAR
INTO THE WOODS
EXODUS
I will double down on BIRDMAN as the winner. All I’ve heard about both THE IMITATION GAME and THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING is that they’re either meh or a disappointment. FOXCATCHER. Sounds like a critics’ movie. Which the gurus are, but the Academy are not. I have a big old question mark on that one. All I know is the trailer makes me forget about it 5 seconds later. Hell, I don’t even watch Olympic wrestling during the Olympics and I’m allergic to nose acting. Maybe it’s just me. SELMA seems like an odd duck. It sticks out like a sore thumb because it’s the history lesson movie this year and most of the other films have a completely different but similar to each other tone. It seems like it’s in the wrong year to me. But if it’s that good, it will make it. I’m just not gambling on it. Especially if their screeners aren’t ready. From what everyone’s said UNBROKEN is not all that or a bag of chips. The only thing going for it in my mind right now is Dave Karger. That’s it. FURY clearly has a better shot at getting the Chosen Couple to these award shows. I was going to put THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL and you can go ahead and count it as my number 11. But I actually thought it was one of Wes Anderson’s lesser films. The heart’s not there. Executed brilliantly but it’s got no soul. As I typed that, I heard Willem Dafoe in the back of my mind saying “Thanks a lot for not picking me.” And that’s exactly what’s missing for me. AMERICAN SNIPER is too late, either way, in my opinion. Maybe it can play catch up but I’m not going to bet on it. EXODUS is a complete gamble on my part. I get that but even if it slightly works, it’s obviously a massive undertaking with quality people behind it. I cannot count it out.
And that is why I usually just root for my favorite films and performances instead of predicting. It’s just gambling after all. Educated gambling maybe, but even the experts can crap out.
On Jolie as director… no way, really. The film is getting mixed to good reviews (59 Metacritic, on RT I don’t know how it stands, the page seems hacked). It does not matter her star power (remember, for Directing, the voters are the Directors branch!), it’s easier for her to get in at Actress thanks to Maleficent (even thought I don’t consider that, an Oscar-worthy performance), and the woman who’s going to likely get in, is DuVernay for “Selma”.
Linklater is a lock. DuVernay, Iñarritu seem pretty sure. The 4th and 5th slots seem to be for Marsh, Miller or Tyldum. The rest look like longshots to me. If any sneaks in, I’d be betting on Leigh. I don’t have any hopes on Fincher or Nolan getting the nom, honestly; Chazelle, Vallee, Anderson (both), Jolie, Marshall, will depend on how much the AMPAS cares for their films, they need their film making the cut for Best Picture (I think Leigh DOES NOT need a Best Picture nom for “Mr. Turner” to get in… Prestige can take you really far away, in this branch: Almodovar, Kieslowsky…).
Eastwood, honestly I don’t know. I doubt they feel the need to reward him with another nom, if the films isn’t anything really special.
So I still think it’s: DuVernay, Miller, Marsh, Linklater & Iñarritu, with Tyldum as 6th man in the race.
Just one thought on Angelina Jolie and a best director nomination: Will she truly ruin other female directors chances if she gets nominated? Mel Gibson and Kevin Costner have both won Oscars they didn’t deserve. If she gets in for an inferior movie, she is simply following in their footsteps. Why should she be held to a higher standard than they were?
That being said, I think Selma looks like it will be one of my favorite movies of the year and Unbroken looks less than that. I would rather see both women get nominated then Nolan get in at all. My muddled point being that Jolie would be the first women(based on reviews so far) to join a large group of men who didn’t deserve a nomination and still got nominated. I see that as progress if it happens because I can also see studios never giving her another true shot if this movie fails(her one with Pitt would be it for a while). Just ask Mimi Leder what happened to her after Pay it Forward. I think Duvernay is in regardless of Jolie’s chances. I might be giving the Academy too much credit, but they earned it after last year.
On “The Theory of Everything”, I have it as predicted winner as it really shows off a “A Beautiful Mind” vibe, coming from it. Everything else seems too dark in comparison, it really stands out of the rest as the “different” film in the race. I think “Selma” is probably the biggest threat it faces.
“Boyhood” would come third, but faces the oposition of facing TWO movies with two real characters greater than life itself. “The Imitation Game” could be 4th in discussion, for the win. And out of them, I don’t see any possible Winner, I think the rest are just fighting for the noms and maybe some important win.
I think the biggest fight this year, would be in Best Director, though… Linklater would be the unofficial frontrunner, but if “The Theory of Everything” wins, I think it’ll happen as it happens with most of this kind of films: Picture/Director/Screenplay/Lead Character wins.
The King’s Speech: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor
A Beautiful Mind: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supp. Actress (Crowe probably lost because his infamous BAFTA affair)
Gandhi: Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay (and 4 more!)
Amadeus: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor (and 4 more!)
So, if “The Theory of Everything” or “Selma” win, most likely the poker would be served… and Redmayne has the most showy role.
I’m hoping for a best animated feature nomination for
Big Hero 6
Let’s not be too hasty about considering Unbroken to be a shoo-in. Star power doesn’t have the same weight as it used to. Remember when people were convinced Tom Hanks was going to get nominated in two different acting categories last year? How’d that go for him? Oh that’s right, the only acting nomination from either of his movies was, um, Barkhad Abdi. Also, what happened to those acting nominations for Oprah Winfrey and Robert Redford that everyone was talking about earlier on?
“Her inclusion in this race will be based entirely on PR and her celebrity status. That is the hardest thing for me to watch – it was so with Ben Affleck and it’s so with Angelina Jolie.” – As I recall, Ben Affleck didn’t get included in as many categories as he was probably hoping for…
I think that after Crash, reviews mean more than they used to, too. No post-Crash BP winner has had less than an 85 on Metacritic. And being a film which is thought early on to be a strong contender, but which pulls weak reviews, is no good situation to be in. See Saving Mr. Banks, The Butler, The Ides of March, J. Edgar… all of those films had huge star power behind them, sometimes in the director’s chairs. Granted, bad reviews don’t always sink films (see Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close). But I think if Unbroken stays below a 70 on Metacritic, it and Jolie will have an uphill battle to even get nominated.
Look, there’s something that’s been really confusing to me. All of the major BP players seem to have *something* going for them —
Boyhood: literally everybody loved it dearly
Gone Girl: made by a very respected director, good reviews, enormous BO success
Birdman: excellent reviews, fabulous cast, insider story, previously nominated director
A Most Violent Year: very good reviews, Jessica Chastain, up-and-coming director, NBR
Foxcatcher: Bennett Miller, passionate supporters among critics, comedian doing dark stuff, Cannes
Whiplash: surprising indie hit of the year, will win Supporting Actor, fabulous reviews
Interstellar: mounting box office success, production pedigree, visceral spectacle, many LOVED it
The Theory of Everything: serious biopic with a very emotionally charged story, showy central turn
Fury: WWII, great ensemble, very popular among audiences
Into the Woods: Les Mis but good
Selma: urgent themes, intense critical enthusiasm, would make history
Nightcrawler: “edgy” choice, will probably do well with critics groups
The LEGO Movie: little animated film that could
Mr. Turner: revered director doing career-best work, British backing, it’s about Art
Inherent Vice: P.T. Anderson, great reviews, period film but with a difference
Wild: the power of Witherspoon, director’s film was nominated last year
The Grand Budapest Hotel: outside-the-box choice for the weary, has been favored by hindsight
Still Alice: “it’s winning Actress and it’s good enough so it might as well get in”
Heck, I can even get Unbroken (Angelina, Deakins, Coens, intense real story etc.); I can even get American Sniper (Eastwood is entitled to automatic consideration), even though both films have been met with a resounding “Meh” so far.
But really, what is the rationale behind the buzz for “The Imitation Game”? It did well at TIFF, yes. It’s backed by the Weinsteins, yes. It takes place during WWII and is based on the story of a wronged hero, yes. But it’s still a predominantly cerebral film with little emotional punch that tells a story about how cryptanalysis saved the world, one that has been getting fine but completely unexceptional reviews. Everybody likes it but nobody loves it (well, save for Rex Reed, who also loved that Hitchcock biopic from a few years ago). It doesn’t seem to inspire passion, nor does it seem to inspire a lot of intellectual respect. The director is a near-unknown. I can see it getting in for Best Actor given that Cumberbatch is somewhat overdue for a nomination, and it’s not that hard to picture it getting two or three more technical nods and maaaaybe a Supporting Actress nod for Knightley; why it’s being considered a BP lock is completely beyond me. Is it just that the theme and the production team screamed “Oscar” so loudly that everybody thought it best to preemptively include it among Oscar frontrunners regardless of the movie itself? I doubt that, as it goes against the impending exclusion of Unbroken from the race, but still, I can’t think of another explanation.
Hi RYAN & Hi SASHA.
Both of you were asking me about your answers about UNBROKEN & ANGELINA JOLIE.
How did that work out? – Well, Yes, of course, I can understand your opinions even so, that I don’t agree with all them.
We’re all film fanatics and should be able to look forward to the services provided all filmmakers to us year by year.
This is cinema and that’s what we all love!
That is why I very much hope that Ms. Angelina Jolie still remains many years us.
Do you agree with me?
“I haven’t seen all the films but I’ve seen The Theory Of Everything and it was like a blast from the past. If that film wins anything ( even nominations are for me hard to accept ) I don’t think we’ve moved too far from 20 years ago
It annoys me that the pundits have Theory so high on their predictions. From pretty much every comment i’ve read from AD users who have seen it claim it’s pretty much a mediocre film. It’s sad to think this film will take a nomination away from a great film like The Grand Budapest Hotel or something else more worthy.
Ryan,
I am really not a big fan of Angelina Jolie. I think i respect her non-Hollywood part of her life more than Hollywood. So i really dont are if she even gets nominated. She has enough! I have not seen her movie yet. In fact, I would be upset if the movie doesnt turn to be a good one, as I really loved the book and the story. All i said was as a female director, A.J may use some suppport so she could become even a better director which may help future female directors. Oh well.
Anyway. For this year i really believe that it is Boyhood that should win best movie and best director, followed by The Imitation Game. At least for now. And I dont think I will changemy choice
All i said was as a female director, A.J may use some suppport so she could become even a better director which may help future female directors. Oh well.
I want all the same good things for her, Aragorn. You and I both agree about that. In fact, you probably already know, Angelina Jolie already began filming her 3rd movie in September — in Malta. It’s called By the Sea, and she’s written it, directed it, produced it, and will star in it alongside Brad Pitt.
((the last movie Brad and Angelina made together earned $478 million worldwide))
By the Sea wrapped shooting in November. It will be in theaters next year. Imagine the high-profile release Universal Pictures will give this movie. I fully expect Angelina Jolie to continue to refine her talents as actress-writer-director, don’t you? It’s a certainty. Inevitable, yes? Her ambition, talent, and good fortune are paving the way for a terrific career, and I’m so glad about that, I mean that sincerely.
Next movie project for Ava DuVernay? We haven’t heard about it yet.
for years my nickname for David Karger was “Karger-Is-Fate”. we’ll see.
Gone Girl is exactly the kind of film that proves you should look at the year-end lists, not the Metacritic score. It’s only at the end of the year that we get to see the critics go through an exercise similar to Oscar voting – comparing the years films to each other and making a list. Gone Girl is going to rank much higher when those year-end lists are compiled. It is not at all unusual to see a film that got a Metacritic score in the 60″s end up in the top ten of the critical consensus. Films get re-evaluated pretty quickly. I would not be surprised at all to see Gone Girl in the top five of the top ten compilations.
It is not at all unusual to see a film that got a Metacritic score in the 60″s end up in the top ten of the critical consensus.
So true, Bob. My favorite example: Inglourious Basterds. Everyone really liked IG when it opened in August 2009. But critics were lukewarm (69 on metacritic — respectable enough, but not enough for a “lock”)
because, as you say, in August nobody was sure how to rank Inglourious Basterds against its rivals. How could we? nobody had seen the rivals yet.
But then, by the time Oscar night rolled around, Inglourious Basterds had already been re-evaluated and had been elevated to stand amid the top 3 frontrunners of the year.
Seconding Sammy. Come back Marshall Flores! Come baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack
It really is absurd that these experts have put The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game so highly still off of nothing more than positive reactions out of TIFF. NEITHER film and neither of the lead actors have been locks in any of the announcements we’ve gotten so far this year. I hope this trend continues and both films show up empty handed through this wave of critics announcements. The real test will be the HFPA and I’m hoping they go for Mr. Turner, just like the NYFCC did!
I’d guess that Unbroken will be switched out for one of the three at the bottom- A Most Violent Year, Into the Woods, or American Sniper.
I like Robert A’s analysis.
More so than in past years, I think the pundits have out-maneuvered themselves (at last) and Oscar, as well as the critics, will do as they damn well please. Films the general consensus have been ignoring could rise and high profile “look-at-me” stuff will get brushed off.
By the end of next week, the fog will start to clear, but right now – anything is possible
Also, given these times, and the environment I expect Ava D. To win Best Director and Selma Best Picture
Well now I have every reason to let aforementioned rage just fucking erupt.
Go fuck yourself.
I’m trying very hard right now to control the rage that’s threatening to explode onto my keyboard atm.
lol jk but no srsly, what’s the obsession witb BFCA scores? And who gives a shit about the Golden Satellites? And is it just me, or are the only people who are optimistic about Interstellar’s chances Nolan fanboys? Like, all of them. And delusionally so.
That Empire list is as good a representation of my reasons for cancelling my subscription to that shite years ago.
I haven’t seen all the films but I’ve seen The Theory Of Everything and it was like a blast from the past. If that film wins anything ( even nominations are for me hard to accept ) I don’t think we’ve moved too far from 20 years ago.
I caught Clouds of Sills Maria at a festival … now that is a film. Brilliant. Boyhood, Birdman, yes. Even Whiplash made an impression on me. But The Theory Of Everything?? How can you even mention it in the same breath??
In this same blog, film critics, reviewers, bloggers, anyone and everyone have been criticized for not being supportive of female filmmakers and movies based on strong female characters. A few months ago, even Tammy was mentioned as a movie that didnt get critical support because of the female centric story..we heard many many calls for support for fmale directors, film makers. Then this year, we have a female director whose movie with a decent shot of getting major nominatons…the movie has not opened yet..it is gettin mixed reviews..it may not be the flawless, great movie but someone would expect thst it would get more support from this blog! No, not something like saying it is a masterpiece…but just more support….but no! Because the blogger already announced a few months ago that she would support Selma and Ava D. over Unbroken and A.J. And we all know why! I am not expecting Unbroken to be named as a masterpiece if it is not one. But in a blog where there is always talk about sex/male vs female filmmakers, I would expect a bit more openness, more support…But when someone made her mind long time ago, she just looks for excuses/reasons to support her initial choice/decision, which is quite human…she is smart, she knows that there will be no room for two female directors in top five and probably thinks that if A.J. happens to get a nod, Ava D. Will be out ( there will be lots of racism in that case for sure!) So it is expected that at least in this blog Selma will get every possible push/support while the opposite will happen to Unbroken…remember the year when Viola Davis was running against Meryl Streep..smae thing will happen again…
fasten your seat belts and wait until the nominations…if Ava D. gets a best director nomination, we will get tons of articles about why she should win, regardless whether she deserves it or not! All about that stupid history making reason…
Also, given these times, and the environment I expect Ava D. To win Best Director and Selma Best Picture…The question of whether they are better than others is irrelevant!
I am not expecting Unbroken to be named as a masterpiece if it is not one. But in a blog where there is always talk about sex/male vs female filmmakers, I would expect a bit more openness, more support
If a bad movie gets in simply because a woman made it that is bad for all female filmmakers. If a movie gets in because the director is a huge star and worldwide celebrity that is not good for all female filmmakers. Unbroken is not worthy of beating some of the better films this year, not just Selma but any of them. She’s getting a pat on the back and a “good job” from the industry – she should not get accolades she doesn’t deserve. Not yet anyway. When she makes a good movie like Ava DuVernay made? Sure, give her all of the awards. I even advocated for August; Osage County last year and The Butler — also? Tammy is a better film than Unbroken. You can’t really say Unbroken is bad particularly because it is too middle of the road to be bad. It just isn’t excellent – and it needs to be excellent for women filmmakers to be taken seriously. It’s a good effort from her but her inclusion in this race will be based entirely on PR and her celebrity status. That is the hardest thing for me to watch – it was so with Ben Affleck and it’s so with Angelina Jolie. Sorry but it is. The movie is simply not good enough — BUT look, all the pundits are predicting it so the fix is in. It probably wouldn’t even matter what the movie looked like anyway. It’s frustrating — and over time people will regard this as an underserving win, which will make it that much harder the next time a woman comes up to bat. Not easier. This is going to be one of those things where everyone knows the movie is only in there because of star power — and that will mean that her inclusion will be denigrated over time….not good. For anyone. Except the studio.
And we all know why! I am not expecting Unbroken to be named as a masterpiece if it is not one. But in a blog where there is always talk about sex/male vs female filmmakers, I would expect a bit more openness, more support…
To be more precise, what we often talk about on this site is how some filmmakers have it easier than others. We often talk about the new-found clout an Oscar can bring to a filmmaker who has been faced with hurdles for years. What we often talk about is how an Oscar nomination (or a win) can be the thing to raise a filmmaker’s career to the next level.
Ava DuVernay and Angelina Jolie are both women, but the similarities between them fall apart quickly after we notice they’re the same gender.
How much easier can Angelina Jolie’s life in Hollywood be? With an Oscar in her house, how much more clout can she possibly have? How many hurdles stand in her way, with an Oscar or without one? Will an Oscar raise Angelina Jolie’s career “to the next level”? What level would that be? Top Goddess in Hollywood Heaven? She’s there already.
I know what you “think” the reason might be that many people are more excited at the opportunity we see within reach for Ava DuVernay. You think it’s something to do with race. That’s incorrect.
My own reason for feeling more excited for Ava DuVernay are many. But primarily this is the time of year when we need to focus our energies and and choose our battles more carefully. We look for battles that might be winnable.
That’s why you don’t hear Sasha talking about Tammy anymore, and (to a lesser extent) that’s why I believe you’re seeing many of us let go of hopes for the weaker film and consolidate our push for the MOVIE that looks most promising to us.
===
And yes, your other suspicions have some validity. Because one of these amazing women already has all the breezy ease and clout she needs, with fewer hurdles and less reason to need an Oscar — since it’s hard to imagine how Oscar glory for Angelina can boost her life or career in any significant way (not counting ego boost, and One More Rare Shiny Object to add to her vast collection of rare shiny objects.)
The other woman we’re talking about stands to gain everything that the first woman ALREADY HAS.
If you don’t see how that helps tilt our attention away from the woman who’s a world-wide worshipped celebrity with superclout and combined husband-and-wife net worth of $425 million, then I don’t know how else to explain it.
Maybe you’re thinking “What can we give the woman who LITERALLY HAS EVERYTHING?” And an Oscar sounds like a nice cherry on top of being a goddess who’s worth half a billion dollars and can do anything her heart desires? — everything except clutch a rare shiny statue for the cameras.
===
Aragorn, I adore Angelina Jolie. I adore Ava DuVernay too. They cannot both win Oscars this year. We have to choose who to wish for, right? We have to each choose what dream to dream about. You’ve chosen one person, and nobody is nagging you about it, right? Speaking for myself (and representing Sasha as best I can) we have chosen another person. It’s a little exhausting to get berated and browbeaten about our fondest dreams every day. That might be hard to understand since nobody is harassing you for YOUR fondest dream.
I wish the very best to Angelina Jolie in all her future endeavors and I have no doubt that her opportunities in the future will be virtually endless. I’m just a little less confident that Ava DuVernay can have another chance as spectacular as SELMA anytime soon.
Remember how everyone said: “Viola Davis and Meryl Streep will BOTH have lots more chances to win more Oscars. It doesn’t matter if Meryl takes the Oscar for The Iron Lady. (her 3rd one!) Viola Davis will have as many great roles in the future as Meryl Streep will have!”
How did that work out?
@ GEORGE
You know, for a while now I’ve been thinking Gone Girl isn’t going to fare any better than Fincher’s last film, but the BFCA score is solid and it’s already received a lot of mention, plus the box office is on Fincher’s side this time…maybe, just maybe it pulls off a Departed type win? Fincher is due, there’s no doubt about that, and while I wouldn’t consider Gone Girl his best film I certainly wouldn’t complain much if Gone Girl and/or Fincher won. I’m thinking best bet though right now seems to be Selma, even though a racial film just won last year. Boyhood seems poised to turn out to be this year’s Social Network in some sense.
I have a sneaky feeling that Gone Girl is going to be the surprise with more nominations that expected.
If I had to predict right now: (* winner)
Picture:
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Selma
The Theory of Everything *
Whiplash
Director:
Iñarritu, Birdman
Linklater, Boyhood
Marsh, The Theory of Everything (if he gets it, I doubt this movie loses) *
Miller, Foxcatcher
du Vernay, Selma
Actress
Jones, The Theory of Everything
Moore, Still Alice *
Pike, Gone Girl
Swank, The Homesman
Witherspoon, Wild
Actor: (all “rookies” at the Oscars!)
Carell, Foxcatcher
Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Keaton, Birdman
Oyelowo, Selma
Redmayne, The Theory of Everything *
Supp. Actress:
Arquette, Boyhood *
Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Ejogo, Selma
Knightley, The Imitation Game
Streep, Into the Woods
Supp. Actor:
Hawke, Boyhood
Norton, Birdman
Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Simmons, Whiplash *
Wilkinson, Selma
Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood *
The LEGO Movie
Selma
Whiplash
Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything *
Wild
This reminds me too much of 2001. Just saying.
I’m thinking that the Grand Budapest Hotel (which i loved) will take the “sleeper hit” slot. It seems like the reviews for Unbroken haven’t quite been strong enough to merit a best pic nod. I also think that the cachet of both Foxcatcher and the Theory of Everything have diminished somewhat. I’m also betting that Interstellar will be vulnerable. I’m thinking at this point that the final 9 will be:
Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Selma (given everything that’s happened in the past couple of weeks–not to say that it hasn’t always happened, but the media attention has been through the roof–there couldn’t be a more timely film)
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Gone Girl
Whiplash
A Most Violent Year
I am excited at the prospect of this being a really unpredictable year in most categories (though I think that JK Simmons will run away with Supporting Actor), but I said that last year, and it became pretty predictable in the end).
So far I have 5 “locked”:
The Theory of Everything (still, my predicted winner… reminds me too much, in advance of some Best Picture winners)
The Imitation Game
Selma (growing up full steam)
Birdman
Boyhood
Then a bunch of films likely to face/off for between 1 and 4 spots:
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Wild
Whiplash
Interstellar
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Then, the longshots that might get a surprise nom…
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
The LEGO Movie (still, I doubt it will, but it would be awesome if they did)
Love is Strange
A Most Violent Year
American Sniper
Into the Woods (which needs glowing reviews and a Golden Globe love affair to regain buzz)
Inherent Vice
Nightcrawler
Where is Marshall Flores and his Statsgasm ???
So far The Grand Budapest Hotel has topped Richard Corliss’ and David Ehrlich’s lists. If the early going is any indication, it’s going to be one of the top 2 films once the critics’ lists are compiled, along with Boyhood.
Of course, so was Moonrise Kingdom, which was #2 on Poland’s annual list in 2012 and didn’t get a nomination. So maybe that doesn’t matter.
If I were to predict ten, they would be:
Boyhood
Birdman
Selma
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Gone Girl
Foxcatcher
The Theory of Everything
Into the Woods
Interstellar
The director lineup could be something like this:
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Ava DuVernay, Selma
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner
EMPIRE posted a list as well. Removing the 2013 releases that released later in the UK apparently we have…
1. Boyhood
2. Nightcrawler
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. Edge of Tomorrow
5. Grand Budapest Hotel
6. What We Do In the Shadows
7. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
8. Mr. Turner
9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
10: X-Men: Days of Future Past
11. Gone Girl
12. Interstellar
Early prediction for the Academy “9”
Boyhood
Whiplash
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Gone Girl
Birdman
The Imitation Game
A Most Violent Year
Unbroken
Best Director:
Linklater
Inarritu
DuVernay
Tyldum
Chazelle
BTW, I just discovered this poll, and not sure if anyone saw it. It posted online 2 days ago. BFI held a reader’s poll of the best movies of 2014:
1. “Under the Skin”
2. “Boyhood”
3. “Ida”
4. “The Wolf of Wall Street”
5. “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
6. “Frank”
7. “Nightcrawler”
8. “Horse Money”
9. “Goodbye To Language”
10. “Two Days, One Night”
Is it more likely that this is a year with 5 to 7 nominees or a full 10? It seems like the latter to me, with passion being spread among a wide field. Based on lack of past success for Anderson and even Leigh (both normally recognize more for writing than directing/picture) I wouldn’t normally predict Budapest or Mr. Turner but maybe they squeeze in this year, Really the only thing concerning about Interstellar’s chances is the lower than expected BFCA score. The Metacritic score is the same as Inception so no worries there. I believe if Interstellar does make the cut it’s not just squeezing it, it’ll be top of the nomination count or very nearly so.
That Karger person hasn’t updated his picks since before Thanksgiving, right? RIGHT? He still has UNBROKEN winning it all. Free country.
“So, maybe The Imitation Game isn’t as much a contender afterall. Hmm…”
The Imitation Game will definitely get nominated in multiple categories. But yeah, I’m highly skeptical about it actually winning the grand prize.
I just pathetic how Unbroken is being pushed to the nominees lists because of Jolie. The scores for the film are just terrible (Metacritic and Rotten). I believe (more like I HOPE) this will not survive until the Oscars.
Highly Likely: Boyhood, Birdman, Selma, The Imitation Game. I would lay money on the table that they’re all getting in.
Probable (but I won’t lay money on the table): Gone Girl.
Chances Slightly Overrated by Pundits (but still seems like a decent bet to get in): The Theory of Everything.
Chances Somewhat Underrated by Pundits (has a decent chance to get in): Whiplash. Mr. Turner.
Chances Overrated by Pundits (and vulnerable not to get in at all): Unbroken.
Fencesitters (the Who Knows? category): Foxcatcher. American Sniper. A Most Violent Year. The Grand Budapest Hotel. Into the Woods.
Endangered Species to Everyone but Benutty and LCBaseball (kidding–it could maaybe squeeze in if there are 8-10 nominees): Interstellar.
So, maybe The Imitation Game isn’t as much a contender afterall. Hmm…
LCBaseball22 is correct, major typo on Imitation Game. The 71 on Metacritic is perhaps the biggest red flag with regards to its chances for the big prize. It would be the worst reviewed BP winner ever were it not for Crash at 69 on Metacritic (ouch).
Another note: NBR wins do not make AMERICAN SNIPER a contender any more than they made HEREAFTER or GRAN TORINO contenders.
Slightly OT: Love that Kenneth Turan is cited as “Kenny” on the IMITATION GAME ads on the homepage.
My sense of it:
1. BOYHOOD
2. BIRDMAN
3. THE IMITATION GAME
4. SELMA
5. THEORY OF EVERYTHING
6. GONE GIRL
7. UNBROKEN
8. WHIPLASH
9. FOXCATCHER
10. INTERSTELLAR
Wouldn’t be shocked if MOST VIOLENT YEAR or INTO THE WOODS jump into one of those last two spots. I think people hyping GRAND BUDAPEST for a nomination have their hearts in the right place and I’d LOVE to see it happen (the film is one of Anderson’s very best) but I doubt it will happen. Hard for me to buy that large a portion of AMPAS embracing Wes Anderson.
Except there’s a typo with the Imitation Game’s Metacritic score; it’s at 71 not 91, lol. Also, Unbroken is up to 85 BFCA score now, but it’s been jumping around.
… and Mr. Turner is still being wildly underestimated! It might not get in (depending on how many actually gets in!), but only one vote?
On the other side of the spectrum Boyhood is beginning to look like a proper frontrunner. Not just a default frontrunner, but a strong frontrunner build to last…
Boyhood, Birdman, Imitation Game and Gone Girl are receiving Best Picture nods. That leaves at least 5 spots (assuming they nominate 9 for the fourth consecutive year. The films vying for those final five slots will probably be ….
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
American Sniper
The LEGO Movie
The Grand Budapest Hotel
A Most Violent Year
Tough year, wouldn’t be surprised to see Still Alice make it into the lineup.
Sasha, you’re now thinking Into the Woods gets a nomination? What changed your mind?
So, what we’ve learned is that The Imitation Game is still a major contender.