It’s all come down to this, my friends. A preferential ballot for all too enabled Academy voters. It’s hard to know how this thing will go. There are so many conflicting narratives that run through it, so many different types of people voting. The industry throws out brilliant films like Inherent Vice or Selma but that doesn’t mean it will fit in the comfort zone of Oscar voters.
We’ve gone over Best Picture and Best Director, now let’s just ram it all on through, shall we? My Best Picture predictions match the Awards Daily contest entries so far, and they are…
Best Picture
(In order of contest entries)
1. Boyhood (For the win)
2. Birdman
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. The Imitation Game
5. The Theory of Everything
6. Selma
7. Gone Girl
8. Whiplash
9. American Sniper
10. Nightcrawler
I know it’s a big drama that I’m predicting my two favorites, Gone Girl and Selma, and that they are just as likely to get shut out. But you know what? I looked back at the Guru’s predictions and I found that if you look at individual predictions people get things wrong but the consensus seems to be right. Thus, I trust in that and am going with that.
Best Director
Richard Linklater, Boyhood (For the win)
Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alt. Morton Tyldum, Imitation Game
Wishful thinking/too good to be true: Ava DuVernay
Best Actor
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
David Oyelowo, Selma
Alt. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Best Actress
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Alt. Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Supporting Actor
JK Simmons, Whiplash
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Emma Stone, Birdman
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Original Screenplay
Alejandro Inarritu et al, Birdman
Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler*
Paul Webb, Selma
Alt: Foxcatcher
Adapted Screenplay
Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Nick Hornby, Wild
Jason Hall, American Sniper
Whiplash
Alt. Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Editing
Boyhood
Birdman
Gone Girl
Whiplash
American Sniper
Alt. Imitation Game
Cinematography
Birdman
Mr. Turner
Grand Budapest Hotel
Unbroken
The Imitation Game
Costumes
Into the Woods
Imitation Game
Grand Budapest Hotel
Maleficent
Mr. Turner
Production Design
Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
Into the Woods
Interstellar
The Imitation Game
Alt. Big Eyes
Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Into the Woods
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
Unbroken
Sound Editing
Guardians of the Galaxy
American Sniper
Interstellar
Unbroken
Birdman
Original Score
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Theory of everything
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Alt. Grand Budapest Hotel
Foreign Language Feature
Fource Majeure
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Wild Tales (Argentina)+
Documentary Feature
CitizenFour
Life Itself
Last Days in Vietnam
Virunga
Salt of the Earth
Animated Feature
The Lego Movie
Princess Kaguya
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Big Hero 6
The Box Trolls
Alt. The Book of Life
Visual Effects
Interstellar
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit
X-Men
Makeup
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
Foxcatcher
Song
“Big Eyes” (Big Eyes)*
“Glory” (Selma)*
“Mercy Is” (Noah)*
Everything is Awesome (Lego Movie)
Lost Stars (Begin Again)
Live Action Short
Aya
My Father’s Truck
Baghdad Messi
The Phone Call
Carry On
Animated Short
The Bigger Picture
Feast
Duet
The Dam Keeper
Me and My Moulton
Documentary Short
The Lion’s Mouth Opens
Joanna
One Child
Our Curse
White Earth
“Dallas Buyers Club over The Wolf of Wall Street…that’s one big fucking “no”.”
Er, no. The editing of WoWS is a mess. I recently saw it for a third time and I’m still saddened by how much a potentially great Scorsese film was cut and pasted together like some random art school project. They were in a hurry, and boy it tells.
Wild Tales o The Liberator? o Booth of them? ahhh!!!! Ida, Force Majeure,Tangerines y Leviathan ….
I haven’t been as confused by an Oscar race in such a long time. We are bound to see some surprises, I’m sure of it. And obviously best actor will be a shocker, since no one has a consensus. I have a gut feeling Fiennes makes it, but I just have no idea who he takes out.
I hope the lack of consensus for the fifth best actress slot makes room for Marion Cotillard. That would make me so happy. Heck, throw out Felicity Jones and nominate both Cotillard and Aniston! But I think thats wishful thinking.
My NGNG pick is Riz Ahmed for supporting actor. That fifth supporting actor slot is so contentious that I think anyone from Ahmed to Wilkinson to Brolin to Carell could take it, and I am banking on the groundswell support for Nightcrawler to bring Ahmed a nomination, along with Russo (knocking out Chastain).
That fifth Supporting Actor slot is a real head-scratcher. No offense to the great Robert Duvall, as even a half-assed Duvall performance is still worth noting, yet his work in ‘The Judge’ doesn’t seem Oscar-worthy to me. I would love to see Riz Ahmed get in, he was wonderful in that role and he has a decent underdog shot given how much buzz Nightcrawler is generating.
Simmons, Norton, Hawke and Ruffalo all absolutely deserve their virtually-locked nominations, so my top choices for that fifth spot would be…(and, I’d absolutely be overjoyed if any of these guys actually got that fifth nod)…
1. Riz Ahmed
2. Nelsan Ellis, Get On Up
3. Jason Clarke, Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes
4. Dave Bautista, Guardians Of The Galaxy
5. Stephan James, Selma
6. Andrew Scott, Pride
This isn’t a prediction so much as wishful thinking maybe…but I really think Adriana Barraza deserves a Best Supporting nom for CAKE. I’m genuinely surprised I am apparently the only person buzzing about her after seeing CAKE and being blown away by BOTH women.
Ryan Adams
Nice sentiment, though they messed up big time last year, at least in my book : Dallas Buyers Club over The Wolf of Wall Street…that’s one big fucking “no”. Oh, well, you win some, you lose some.
Not a chance Boyhood misses Editing. Imitation Game I could see happening, but you have to ask what would replace it. Theory Of Everything? American Sniper? Whiplash?
My official call:
1. Boyhood (6 noms, Pic, Director, S. Actor, S. Actress, O. Screenplay, Editing)
2. Birdman (8 noms, Pic, Director, Actor, S. Actor, S. Actress, O. Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing)
3. Imitation Game (10 noms, Pic, Director, Actor, S. Actress, A. Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Art Direction, Costumes)
4. Theory Of Everything (7 noms, Pic, Actor, Actress, A. Screenplay, Cinematography, Score, Makeup)
5. Grand Budapest Hotel (6 noms, Pic, Director, O. Screenplay, Editing, Art Direction, Costumes)
6. Whiplash (4 noms, Pic, S. Actor, A. Screenplay, Sound Mixing)
7. American Sniper (6 noms, Pic, Director, Actor, A. Screenplay, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)
8. Gone Girl (5 noms, Pic, Actress, O. Screenplay, Editing, Score)
9. Foxcatcher (2 noms, Pic, S. Actor)
10. Selma (1 or 2 noms, Pic if they go for 10, Song)
11. Nightcrawler (2 or 3 noms, Actor, O. Screenplay, MAYBE S. Actress)
12. Still Alice (1 nom, Actress)
13. Cake (1 nom, Actress)
14. Wild (1 or 2 noms, Actress, MAYBE S. Actress)
15. The Judge (1 nom, S. Actor)
16. Into The Woods (3 noms, S. Actress, Art Direction, Costumes)
17. Interstellar (4-7 noms, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Art Direction, MAYBE Cinematography, MAYBE Costumes, MAYBE Score)
18. St. Vincent (MAYBE S. Actress)
19. Big Eyes (1 or 2 noms, Song, MAYBE Actress)
20. A Most Violent Year (MAYBE S. Actress)
I love the years with a surprise nomination of someone outside the conversation a la Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart a few years back. She benefitted from everyone wanting to see Jeff Bridges – I could see some unexpected supporting nods from Nightcrawler or Selma, maybe even Gone Girl.
** Redmayne and Keaton obviously I mean
My last minute shockers:
There are just too many variables for there not to be some substantial snubs and shocking nominations in the acting races.
I now think Cotillard gets the final spot over Adams and Aniston. Moore, Pike, Witherspon, Jones and Cotillard. And I’m on record I don’t think Jones is very safe.
Best actor: Redmayne, Keaton, Fiennes, Gyllenhal and one of Cumberbatch. Cooper, David O. or wait for it…….Phillip Seymour Hoffman. God I would love to hear his name called. And I think like last year this category will be the one with craziness. Redmayne and Cooper in my opinion are the only really safe bets. Hell, even hearing Phoenix called wouldn’t shock me.
Supporting actor: Can’t see Simmons, Norton and Hawke not nominated. Ruffalo SEEMS safe but could he be bumped by Carrell? I don’t think Duvall makes it. I hope not. I think a crazy nom gets the fifth slot. Someone like Riz Ahmed or even Christoph Waltz who we know they love.
Supporting actress: Arquette and Stone are locks. I think Knightley gets snubbed here. Russo and Streep and either Chastain for Interstellar or Watts.
I’d have to agree that DuVernay seems very likely, meaning that we’ll probably lose Fincher or Chazelle. Then again, Tyldum could very well knock the other out as well. It would be such a terrible shame if Sniper ended up taking Nightcrawler’s BP nomination, but I suppose I’d have to make it one of my NGNG picks that Nightcrawler makes the cut.
The Film Editing category seems a bit off. Pretty sure Grand Budapest Hotel will make it in instead of Gone Girl, and it doesn’t seem likely that Sniper would take that last spot over Imitation Game (or something else). I’d also be surprised to see Selma make it into Best Original Screenplay, but given that the alternative is Foxcatcher, I hope your picks are right. It also seems far more likely that Theory of Everything would make it into Adapted Screenplay over American Sniper. Overall though, most of these seem pretty solid.
I can see Symphony No. 42 being a surprise nominee for Best Animated Short.
I think the major surprises will be…that the Academy has watched LESS of their screener pile than ever before, therefore stand alone potential nominees like Robert Duval in “The Judge”, and Jessica Chastain in “A Most Violent Year” will be replaced by Renee Russo,in “Nightcrawler,” a film that the Academy may very well nominate for Best Picture as well as Best Actor, and also that Tom Wilkinson may surprise in Supp.Actor and replace stand alone Duval.
For yes, playing the controversial part that every body is talking about LBJ! It COULD happen! And they’ll all watch and nominate “Selma” just because, apart from being a great, important, film, they HAVE the screeners and so will do the right thing (we hope). And the one thing that the guilds have not done.
And BTW, Jake G. is utterly killing it on Broadway in “Constellations” which I saw with a packed house. Standing O. The whole works. And tomorrow, he gets his second nomination for Best Actor. I’m feeling Cumberbatch is vulnerable….Meanwhile, two blocks away
Bradley Cooper is also stone-cold brilliant in “The Elephant Man,” believe it or not, and I think that helps his nomination, too.
Two potential Best Actor lightening up the skys over Broadway. I think I’ll faint.
*faints*
I REALLY see Steve Carrell getting in somewhere – Lead OR Supporting.
I think Ava DuVernay will make the cut and it isn’t even just wishful thinking : if voters rely so heavily on screeners then it should come as no surprise that the ones who did NOT receive any (guilds) snubbed the film and the ones who DID (Academy voters) will NOT.
I, too, am hoping for a great showing for Gone Girl but I now have some last minute paranoia even about Pike. She delivered the most memorable / iconic / cult-bound female performance in 2014, she simply MUST make the cut. Fincher is a directing giant who should be an obvious choice at least for a nomination this year but at this point I can settle for just three nominations : picture (Fincher’s reward), acting (Pike) and writing (Flynn in adapted).
The last film to win Best Picture without Best Editing (just a nomination, not necessarily a win) was Ordinary People. So yeah it matters.
If a film competing for the Best Picture win like ‘Boyhood’ or The Imitation Game’ miss an editing nomination is that a big deal?
If a film competing for the Best Picture win like ‘Boyhood’ or The Imitation Game’ miss an editing nomination is that a big deal?
Traditionally, yes but in Boyhood’s case, probably not. It won’t miss though, I don’t think.
The ACE Editors Guild voters are all about this “cut, cut, cut, MTV generation shit” but the more distinguished Editors Branch of the Academy are the people who have assembled most of the 500 greatest movies ever made, so we hope those sage veterans are more likely to understand the extraordinary feat of life-spanning structural cohesiveness that Boyhood has achieved.
I just want Riz Ahmed to get a nod. Maybe Rene Russo too.