The Screen Actors Guild Awards were handed out in Hollywood. Eddie Redmayne took home Best Actor for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. J.K Simmons won Best Supporting Actor for Whiplash, and Julianne Moore took home Best Actress for Still Alice. Birdman took home the SAG Award for Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture.
The complete list of winners is below:
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE:
Birdman
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
J.K Simmons (Whiplash)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Television:
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Downton Abbey
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Orange Is The New Black
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Kevin Spacey (House Of Cards)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Viola Davis (How To Get Away With Murder)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
William H. Macy (Shameless)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Uzo Aduba (Orange Is The New Black)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES:
Mark Ruffalo (The Normal Heart)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES:
Frances McDormand (Olive Kitteridge)
OUTSTANDING ACTION PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE:
Unbroken
OUTSTANDING ACTION PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES:
Game Of Thrones
LIFE ACHIEVEMENT AWARD:
Debbie Reynolds
Loved all the choices, but IMO “Boyhood” is a miles better film than “Birdman”… but “Birdman” had the most correct chosen Ensemble.
Great to see Eddie Redmayne winning for what it was the best performance of the year (and the best male performance in a while… for a great amount of years. Can’t care less if Redmayne is hated as a person at some forumsfor whatever reason (don’t know why, he seems nice and hasn’t made any strange comment)), great to see Moore winning for her splendid role, great to see JK. Simmons winning to for his nightmare evil teacher in “Whiplash”.
“Be fair though, Claudiu! Regardless of what the reasons may be for Birdman not getting an editing nomination at the Oscars (a fluke, it’s not an editor’s movie), the fact is that it didn’t get nominated for editing, and statistically (since you’re a big fan of the stats), that looks somewhat problematic for the movie to win BP. I remember last year, you argued how Gravity was unlikely to win BP because of its lack of a screenplay nomination, and several people downplayed that by arguing Gravity wasn’t a screenplay movie and writing/dialogue wasn’t “in the nature of the movie” or something similar to that. And you would not let them get by with that argument, yet now you’re kind of using the same argument to explain away Birdman’s lack of an editing nomination.”
I know, and of course I’ve considered this myself. I don’t like to be intellectually dishonest. But I’ve come to the conclusion (which I think can be sustained by statistics – at least the way I interpret them, which I believe to be correct, but which, of course, could also be wrong) that, given the PGA has a 100% record since the switch to preferential voting, Boyhood losing there (a 6000+ voting body) is more important than a single snub, by a much smaller group of voters (the editors). Which is why the situation is different – Gravity had not defeated the front-runner at the PGA, it had only tied. Boyhood has lost. Also, other differences, which I think are key, are that Gravity had no WGA nomination as well (no WGA AND no screenplay nomination at the Oscars – no movie has ever won Best Picture with that combination of snubs) AND no SAG Ensemble nomination (also explainable, but we’re talking about a snub by the largest group in the academy, the actors, not as small a group as the editors – added to a snub by another very large group, the writers), so, clearly, it was in much, much worse shape than Birdman is right now. Also, the fact that so many movies before 1980 won without the editing nomination proves that it’s, probably, the least important of the key nominations, despite the streak (the overall numbers support that theory), and it could well be that the fact this hasn’t happened EVEN ONCE for such a long time since is a fluke. Actually, I think it might be mathematically likely at this point. I don’t know. Plus, movies have overcome single key snubs from smaller branches before (Argo, Titanic, Driving Miss Daisy), but not from the actors AND writers, like Gravity had to. Honestly, there are so many differences that I think the situations (this year and last year) are barely alike at all.
I literally BEG you to tell me if I’m making any error of judgement above! You have no idea how important it is to me that I not do that…
“remember that PGA has been using the preferential ballot only over the past 5-6 years, so batting 100% with the Oscar BP isn’t that impressive when you’re looking at such a small sample size.”
Of course, but, like I said, you simply can’t ignore it. It is NOT easy for two awards to coincide 5-6 times in a row… It’s a questionable stat, I’ll admit it, but still a powerful one. I know Marshall probably wouldn’t approve, and he’d be right not to, in a sense – technically, it’s irrelevant, due to the sample size. But, honestly, and I believe I’m right about this, to ignore it is, I think, a far, far worse thing to do, and you could get a lot of predictions wrong due to this alone, in the long run. You have to ask yourself: do I THINK it’s irrelevant? Do I expect the PGA to suddenly get it wrong 2 out of the next 3 years? I don’t. Should I? Would anyone dare to bet against me on that one, even odds? Should anyone?
“All movies this year are showing kinks in the armor, which makes the BP race interesting.”
Clearly.
“DGA will determine if Boyhood is still competitive or not. If DGA goes with Linklater, as I still expect they will, then it’s going to be a tricky call in BP between Birdman and Boyhood.”
See, this is why I don’t like talking to Zooey. All of the reasonable people in this thread recognize that if Boyhood wins the DGA there’s still very much a race, and he still thinks Boyhood is a lock if it wins the DGA… It might be the favorite in that scenario, and I’m not even necessarily disputing that (the BAFTA might decide a lot, in that case, or the ACE – we’ll get further clues even then, is what I’m saying), but it’s definitely not going to be anywhere near a lock, because one always has to deal with the PGA’s 100% record. You can decide it will likely be broken, but to just GUARANTEE a 100% record will be broken (unless it’s 100% out of like 2 or 3 times) is, I think, simply an irrational conclusion to reach. The guy’s admitted he’s going with his “hunches”, anyway – which is what I wanted him to admit, because, let’s face it, that’s what he’s been doing all along – he’s never had convincing enough arguments to support this idea of a post-DGA-win Boyhood lock.
“If DGA goes Inarritu, it’s over and BP is Birdman.”
Honestly, not even then. 🙂 The editing stat remains a powerful stat that one should be wary of, and there’s still the Apollo 13 example (which I think is by far the best one to bring into the discussion right now, as Apollo 13 also had a single snub, the director snub, and won PGA+SAG+DGA). It was early days for the SAG and PGA, though, their records were far less impressive back then, and their winners far weirder, which is why I’ve always chosen to not give that one precedent too much weight (and I was proven correct – as much as results can do that – when I finally switched to Argo, just before the Oscars, in 2013). The Argo precedent seems like the one more likely to be enforced in the event that Birdman completes the hat-trick, of course, so, yes, Birdman will be the favorite, but I’m not sure it’ll be a big favorite. Argo has also won the BFCA and Globe (which went to Boyhood/Budapest this time around). Birdman, I think, would REALLY need the BAFTA BP (or that, at least, Boyhood not win there, or possibly even Budapest).
“Also, saying Birdman virtually cannot win BP because it will not win editing (since it wasn’t nominated) is also silly, IMO. Birdman is unique in being a film with essentially no editing or no editing in the traditional sense. It is just “other”, so the usual rule that a BP must win (or at least be nominated for) editing just doesn’t apply. I still think Boyhood will win, but it’s not gonna beat Birdman just because of the editing issue.”
That’s (largely) what I’ve been saying…
“it’s actually a miracle Boyhood got nominated for only 4 people.”
I agree, it’s pretty strong. But that could simply mean they like it a lot, but not as much as Birdman (which, given the SAG and PGA wins, is kind of the most likely scenario right now). It’s not actually evidence that they like it more than Birdman, or even close to as much (the nominations tally could have easily gone: Birdman – 1000 points … Boyhood 250 points, or whatever system they use), just like Keaton losing here and/or at the Oscars isn’t actual evidence that Birdman won’t win Best Picture.
“Only 9 movies won Best Picture without an editing nod
BUT
only 2 movies won PGA and SAG without winning Best Picture”
The vastly different sample sizes are the problem there (9/80 vs. 2/9), as Robert pointed out, which is why I was sticking with the preferential argument.
“Just to be clear: No, that was #not directed to you.”
OK then, JPNS! Sorry about the mixup! I just wasn’t sure, as you could probably tell.
“As always, I am totally #cool with you, and your seemingly healthy discussions with Zooey in this time round, too.”
No, they’re not healthy. I’m off those, as of a few paragraphs below.
“If the DGA does goes to Boyhood as most expect though, the race is back on.”
No, apparently, if that happens, the race is just over. Boyhood wins. Just ask Zooey! He’ll explain how only the DGA matters, and how you can’t ever overcome single snubs. Argo? Must have been a fluke… Titanic? The same. We live in a world of flukes, but they only happen when Zooey gives them permission to happen.
Oh know, it’s not so much hatred of Redmayne. It’s more being severely disappointed that there’s a chance the Academy won’t recognize what Michael Keaton did in Birdman. Redmayne gives a good performance in a mediocre film. I think it’s quite egregious that someone with life-threatening ALS is romanticized and made to look so cute and endearing in certain scenes of Theory of Everything. Keaton gives a career capstone performance where he is funny, sad, angry – sometimes all in the same scene. The range demanded of the lead actor to make Birdman work is extraordinary. Here’s hoping the Academy doesn’t go back to its old “affliction of the week” tendencies, and instead rewards a performance for the ages. Sometimes people don’t realize what is harder for an actor to pull off…and what’s most surprising about that is actors themselves are often the culprits.
The Oscar probably goes to Bradley Cooper.
“Me because Julianne Moore should have won that year for A Single Man.”
Over Monique? Man… First I read Woody Allen is not that great of a director and then this…
well, it’s clear KT loathes Eddie Remayne for whatever reason, it’s irrational. (shrugs)
But the dislike for Redmayne baffles me a bit. I see a handsome and sincere young man, almost puppy-like in his sweetness and slight awkwardness. So what if he’s been campaigning hard for the win? I can’t hold his desire against him. Plus, I had to sacrifice watching the Miss Universe pageant last night in favor of watching the SAG Awards, so I appreciated when Redmayne won and had a pageant-like reaction (hands to his face in shock)! It was like getting a little bit of pageant in the SAG Awards!
🙂 Thanks for making me giggle Robert A. It is baffling isn’t it? I wonder if KT et al., hates AnnE Hathaway for being everywhere in her undying quest for Oscar in 2013. I think Eddie is quiet charming in his quest. Good on him.
Me because Julianne Moore should have won that year for A Single Man.
Who on earth is arguing that Monique didn’t deserve her Oscar?
Jonny, I can’t decide which of your posts I like better, so I’m just gonna throw my full support behind both of them.
Redmayne is not “too young” and “inexperienced” to nab an Oscar and Boyhood is NOT just a gimmick. Jesus, you people.
@ Keifer. Re: Rosamund:
No.
My favorite Hurt performance might be Alien…I’ll agree to this, he’s one of the best actors around.
So Day-Lewis should’ve won for In the Name of the Father…but that means that Neeson would still lose and Ford, had he been nominated for Mosquito Coast, would have lost too. I could say something like “Chiwetel Ejiofor should have an Oscar for 12 Years a Slave! Leonardo DiCaprio should have an Oscar for Wolf of Wall Street!” But they competed in the same year! You’re only focusing on the lack of Oscars and shaking your fists. You’re not focusing on who was nominated that year. John Hurt without an lead Oscar sucks…but what should he have won for? The Elephant Man? Robert De Niro won for Raging Bull that year. And I never compared the acting power of Redmayne to Day-Lewis as I’ve mentioned I have not seen Theory of Everything. I am pointing out they were both first time nominees playing people who are not in control of their bodies…and both biopics.
Unless I’ve overlooked it, I want to address something that hasn’t been addressed in the 200 comments so far. And that refers to the photo at the top of this entry: Viola Davis. And the subject is diversity. Even though its film awards (and nominations) were pretty much as all-white as the Oscars, the SAGs did include a montage that focused on social change and diversity. The memoriam clips also reflected actors of all colors (like James Shigeta, Ruby Dee, Misty Upham, Elizabeth Pena). No one is arguing for racial quotas at the awards, but minorities deserve more roles so they can at least in the mix and be eligible. This is larger than ”Selma” and late screeners. There ARE a handful of roles for quality actors who happen to be minorities each year, but you also need voters who will recognize them. As Viola recounted, her daughter at bedtime asks: ”Can you put me in the story?” Then then thanked her producers for ”thinking that a sexualized, messy, mysterious woman could be a 49-year-old, dark-skinned, African-American woman who looks like me.” I look forward to the day that our movies and TV shows are truly inclusive and more reflective of our society because we ALL want to be ”put in the story.”
I completely agree with sentiment like Roberto’s above. It’s a bad precedent to continue the thread of “physical ailments” leading to Oscars. It happens in both lead categories far too often.
The real magic, for me at least, always happens in the supporting fields where the scene-stealing performances really break out and get the recognition. While one could argue that wins like Jennifer Hudson, Christoph Waltz, Mo’Nique, Heath Ledger, etc. aren’t worthy of their wins, it’s hard to argue against the fact that they took their roles and snatched the entire film with them. That being said, I think J.K. Simmons is a great example of that accomplishment and is more than deserving of a win while Patricia Arquette is not. The female supporting field is a mess this year. Sorry. I don’t prescribe to the ideology that 2014 was a weak year for actresses, it’s just a weak set of performances getting the recognition over far greater ones of lower profile actresses.
DDL and Redmayne aren’t even in the same stratosphere. The former is the most dedicated actor to his craft in the world. As I said DDL was a proven talent by 1990 when he won. And he should have won for In the Name of the Father over Hanks baiting it in Philadelphia, which isn’t a great performance. Ford should’ve had the fifth spot in a very competitive year. The Hurt I mentioned was Sir John Hurt.
@ Zooey
I didn’t know Harvey Milk prior to the film so I based it on just the performance of Penn. Though I must admit that it’s not perfect, I felt his performance more than Rourke’s in The Wrestler because Penn’s performance was so layered that whenever Penn’s on screen, I can’t help but see other dimensions to it and see Harvey Milk more that the gay politician, more than the activist, more than the lover.
Still Alice isn’t a masterpiece, but it’s a nice movie with performances that range from good (Baldwin) to great (Stewart) to superb (Moore). It’s delicate, it doesn’t push the “melodrama” button, it’s not emotionally manipulative like The Theory of Everything is. If the thing about Moore winning her Oscar for this movie is that it is too bland, then I don’t see why the same point isn’t made for Redmayne, unless of course we take their previous careers into consideration.
Redmayne is very much deserving of awards, but as I said a few hours ago, I’m so disappointed that guilds award such performances time and time again. All it takes for an actor to win awards is to lose weight or play a diseased person or to have massive make-up on their faces. So predictable and even offensive for performances like Redmayne’s.
I’m sorry I just don’t see Eddie as a great talent. I saw My Week With Marilyn and Good Shepherd and Hick and Les Miz. Those actors I mentioned should’ve been honored and those blights are on the Academy. Now, in a year with Oyelowo and Gyllenhaal and Spall and Hardy and Keaton, it’s a shame a bait role and incessant campaigning (does the convenient Oscar marriage count too???) will win out.
“Well, Redmayne would be one of the youngest winners in the category’s history. His career could go nowhere.”
Or his career could skyrocket and he becomes one of our most respected actors. His youth (and as others have already pointed out, he’s not as young as he looks) shouldn’t be held against him, and what his future career might hold shouldn’t be a factor in whether you vote/don’t vote for him for this performance.
“Plus, Eddie’s not even an established lead actor. So what’ll it be? O’Toole – 0, Burton – 0, Connery – 0, Caine – 0, Hurt – 0, McKellen – 0, DiCaprio – 0, Ford – 0, Neeson – 0, Redmayne – 1 say what??”
Well, at one time O’Toole and Burton weren’t established lead actors either, were they? Imagine if back in 1939, people were arguing that Vivien Leigh shouldn’t win Best Actress for Gone with the Wind because she wasn’t an “established lead actress,” and she especially shouldn’t win when established lead actresses such as Garbo and Stanwyck and Irene Dunne were Oscar-less.
I haven’t seen The Theory of Everything so can’t really speak for Redmayne’s performance. But the dislike for Redmayne baffles me a bit. I see a handsome and sincere young man, almost puppy-like in his sweetness and slight awkwardness. So what if he’s been campaigning hard for the win? I can’t hold his desire against him. Plus, I had to sacrifice watching the Miss Universe pageant last night in favor of watching the SAG Awards, so I appreciated when Redmayne won and had a pageant-like reaction (hands to his face in shock)! It was like getting a little bit of pageant in the SAG Awards!
His performance as Christy Brown is one of the best in cinema.
SAG and AMPAS do disagree, don’t forget. Viola Davis won SAG the year Streep got her Oscar for the horrible “Iron Lady”. So I respect SAG’s choices usually more so than I do AMPAS.
Having said that, I still can’t help feeling, and have felt from the beginning, that this really is the year Michael Keaton will win the Oscar. Especially if they go for Boyhood for Best Picture. It’ll give them a way to honor Birdman, which obviously has a LOT of support. The only upset I can see occurring would be Cooper sneaking in there.
I really hate it when AMPAS gives out “making up for lost time” Oscars, and I love Julianne Moore, but many bloggers have said she’s in a relatively forgettable movie and she has been better in other films. So why give her the Oscar then? Really, doesn’t Rosamund Pike deserve it this year?
KT, tell me which Oscars Ford should have been given and then tell me if he deserved those Oscars over who was nominated and who won. Same thing for Neeson and Caine (Caine arguably could have gotten 1 lead Oscar but the man has 2, that’s pretty good). Ford lost lead actor for Witness to William Hurt for Kiss of the Spider Woman, which nobody can argue. So Hurt did win a lead actor Oscar after all. If Ford was nominated for Fugitive he would have been in direct competition with Neeson for Schindler’s List. Hanks gave a great performance in Philadelphia that year. Everybody nominated deserved to be there. The year of Indiana Jones? Look at that best actor line up, not bad considering it’s the 80s (which I’m hardly a fan of). The Year of The Mosquito Coast was eligible Paul Newman finally won and Bob Hoskins was probably the most deserving. See? It’s easy to say “So and so should have had ‘x’ number of Oscars now.” But that’s not diving into that year and seeing who should be knocked out to put that actor in. Then if you put your favorite actor in there, would he deserve to actually have won that year? Redmayne may very well win on his first time out for playing “Oscar bait.” Would you say that’s why Daniel Day-Lewis won on his first nomination for playing a handicapped man?
“So many great actors never had a chance. And now Redmayne, not yet established, is gonna win first time out for a typical bait role in an unexceptional film? Sigh”
Because he’s in his early thirties doesn’t mean he doesn’t deserve an award. I agree the film isn’t exceptional but his performance really is. This guy might be young but he was a child actor and has been working for two decades. I believe he worked in a play on the West End with Sam Mendes when he was a child. I saw his incredible Tony Award and Olivier winning performance in Reds on Broadway and ever since I have been a fan. The idea that all those multi million dollar movie stars you named didn’t have chance is silly to me. They made choices that have led them to international recognition. I love that a young , hard working and extremely talented man is winning awards. The world is learning his name.
Oh, and this isn’t My Left Foot we’re talking about here. Go see that. DDL is extraordinary, and had been killing it in films before that too. Unbearable Lightness of Being, Beautiful Laundrette, Room with a View, and he even briefly upstaged Gandhi.
Well, Redmayne has proven that a relentless campaign got him were he is and might get him the biggest prize of all ( I hope not but it looks likely). I really like him as an actor but his constant presence all over the place is driving me nuts. Kane, the man next to Pike is her partner and father of he kids.
“Boyhood got its press not for being a great film… but for the length of time it took to complete. This is a gimmick. The film would have had the same impact and would have been the EXACT same film had it used makeup/ different actors in the same roles.”
I have to disagree. The film isn’t a “gimmick”. It was an effective tool he used to produce a beautiful film. Linklater finds truth and realism in all of his work. If Ethan and Patricia gave the same performances in a picture filmed over 3 months with make up, I would still be singing both of the praises. They created moving portraits of real people. I excited thinking about both of their work in this film. I still wish he was sweeping the awards with her. As for Linklater winning director and picture. Why not? He directed something that spoke to a lot of people and that nobody has ever done effectively. That truly is great directing in my opinion. As for producing, I am all for honoring someone that can produce a movie over 13 years, on a budget of 4 million dollars and make 10 times that amount. I really love Birdman as well and wouldn’t be upset if it won best picture but when it comes down to it the realism of Boyhood has the slight edge for me.
Well, Redmayne would be one of the youngest winners in the category’s history. His career could go nowhere. If Witherspoon and Bullock and Portman are winners, then Harrison Ford is way way overdue. He’s been magnificent in many films, though that presence and charisma is taken for granted and not directly translatable to awards. I’m thinking Witness, The Fugitive, Mosquito Coast, Regarding Henry, Presumed Innocent, heck even Raiders, in which he was incredible. Connery was a lead actor for 40 years and received zero noms for his best work. Caine won for supporting parts, not his best work. Neeson is a lead actor who’s even around forever and killing it at the box office. Thank God he has Silence coming. The point is the whole thing is so silly. So many great actors never had a chance. And now Redmayne, not yet established, is gonna win first time out for a typical bait role in an unexceptional film? Sigh
Redmayne is in his 30s so he’s not too young, he just looks it. I haven’t even seen Theory of Everything by the way, I’m pulling for Keaton.
Steven, if you just watch Theory, then you will fully understand why Eddie is winning. (sigh)
I just can’t with Eddie Redmayne. I’ve never seen great promise with him, and he’s so young to win in this category.
@KT, please remind me, how old was Jennifer Lawrence when she won her Oscar? Eddie Redmanye can’t help it that he’s 33 years old – he’s still a grown ass man. Besides, his age was pivotal in him being selected to portray Stephen Hawking. Anyone older would have been a mistake.
Everyone, it’s time to settle your biases against Eddie and concede that his Oscar win is inevitable, and fair.
Birdman is clearly the better made film. It features better performances, better acting, better script, etc
Linklater is one of my favorite directors, even School of Rock was a great film. Sadly, Boyhood is not one of his better films. Not close. Not at all. He may win the DGA and eventually take Director at the Oscars SIMPLY for his commitment to the project.
Boyhood got its press not for being a great film… but for the length of time it took to complete. This is a gimmick. The film would have had the same impact and would have been the EXACT same film had it used makeup/ different actors in the same roles.
Now Birdman has the one-take thing going for it… however, if you look at Birdman and forget about the one-take technique… it is still a brilliant film.
Oh did anybody notice the guy sitting next to Rosamund Pike (not sure if he was her date) had such a dismissive look when Moore won best actress? The clip was only a few seconds but it showed Pike turning away from him and he just looked like the unhappiest little camper.
KT, to be fair Caine did win 2 Oscars for supporting work. DiCaprio, to me, hasn’t done anything worthy of a win. Nominations, sure but not a win. What has Neeson done to deserve the win? His work in Schindler’s List was great but what other performance of his deserves a win? Connery won an Oscar and hasn’t done work in over a decade now. What would Harrison Ford deserve an Oscar for? O’Toole, Burton, McKellan…yes. Okay. But it’s not like Redmayne beat them to an Oscar. O’Toole has always been up against very stiff competition. Redmayne is in his 30s so he’s not too young, he just looks it. I haven’t even seen Theory of Everything by the way, I’m pulling for Keaton.
I’m really happy for Eddie. He seems so genuine. Plus he’s an incredible actor I have always loved his work.
I have to say it was kind of magical that both tv actresses were dark skinned black women.
”Frances McDormand continues her awesomeness.” I’m not sure about the ”continues” part. She just lost at the Golden Globes for ”Olive Kittredge,” and had the sourest expression on her face. She looked ticked off.
We can all quote statistics – and the exceptions to them – until the cows come home. The facts are: ”Boyhood” has been the critics’ darling, winning most of the major prizes, and ”Birdman” has taken 2 important Oscar precursors: the PGA and the SAG for Ensemble. Everything else is speculation. To say that ”Boyhood” isn’t popular with the Guilds, when only 2 of them have voted, is an overstatement. It’s a small indie movie and I don’t think anyone expected it to sweep any tech prizes. Due to SAG guidelines, it was only allowed to list 4 actors (two of whom were basically first-timers), so no one really predicted it to win Ensemble. More bumps ahead at DGA and BAFTA. And it just goes to show that anything can still happen: The 3 B’s are in a dogfight – ”Boyhood,” ”Birdman” and ”Budapest.” The only movie I can’t make an argument for is ”The Imitation Game.” Could it be the stealth Oscar winner?
I just can’t with Eddie Redmayne. I’ve never seen great promise with him, and he’s so young to win in this category. Now people are calling his performance the best in 20 years? Huh? Have you seen any movies? He’s fine…but a win would be rather stupid stereotypical Oscar going for another cripple and impersonation. Really, their voting tendency is getting to be too predictable. Plus, Eddie’s not even an established lead actor. So what’ll it be? O’Toole – 0, Burton – 0, Connery – 0, Caine – 0, Hurt – 0, McKellen – 0, DiCaprio – 0, Ford – 0, Neeson – 0, Redmayne – 1 say what??
I thought Redmayne’s acceptance speech was particularly bad and I don’t understand why the “thanking the demographic of my character” speech seems to help campaigns rather than hurt them. It’s pandering.
The innovative and eye-popping editing works of The Descendants and Silver Linings Playbook were all honores with a nomination.
There’s one other argument in favor of Boyhood I can think of. It’s not common for the SAG to nominate an ensemble consisting of only 4 people. It happened just a couple of times and only once did a small ensemble like this won. It was Sideways, with juggernaut performances by everyone, but especially Paul Giammatti (how he didn’t get nominated is a question that’s right up there with “what’s the purpose of our existance?”). Boyhood also had only 4 people in their ensemble (why so few? I dunno.), but only two of them were actual actors, the other two are an unexperienced newcommer and the director’s daughter. When you look at it this way, it’s actually a miracle Boyhood got nominated for only 4 people. Boyhood is not an actors’ movie per se. The performances are fenomenal, but also very nuanced and quiet, like the whole movie. I think I can understand why this particular ensemble didn’t score big with actors.
— Sorry, but you are reading waaaaaaaay too much into the fact that Eddie Redmayne said Bradley Cooper’s name twice. He was on the spot, understandably addled by his win, trying to remember all his competitors. It is just silly to interpret this as significant.
— Also, saying Birdman virtually cannot win BP because it will not win editing (since it wasn’t nominated) is also silly, IMO. Birdman is unique in being a film with essentially no editing or no editing in the traditional sense. It is just “other”, so the usual rule that a BP must win (or at least be nominated for) editing just doesn’t apply. I still think Boyhood will win, but it’s not gonna beat Birdman just because of the editing issue.
“Frances McDormand continues her awesomeness and shows why she’s the smartest one in the room.”
Totally agree. My only fear as that other less-intelligent people will follow her cheeky example and start promotion everything from the podium!
“Only 9 movies won Best Picture without an editing nod
BUT
only 2 movies won PGA and SAG without winning Best Picture”
This is interesting but misleading, since PGA and SAG have only given out awards since early to mid 1990s, and the editing nomination for the Oscar has been going on since the mid-1930s. In short, the editing award has been around for about 60 more years than SAG/PGA awards, so of course there are going to be more examples of anomalies with editing nominations. To make the comparison mean anything, you have to compare editing with PGA/SAG since the year they had both SAG/PGA awards, which was 1994. So your analogy should read like this:
Since 1994, when the SAG Awards began, only two movies won PGA and SAG without winning Best Picture
BUT
zero movies have won BP without an editing nod.”
”only 2 movies won PGA and SAG without winning Best Picture”
Probably what is making this Oscar Race more unpredictible is the fact that one of the favorites is totally diferent from what we’ve seen.
Be fair though, Claudiu! Regardless of what the reasons may be for Birdman not getting an editing nomination at the Oscars (a fluke, it’s not an editor’s movie), the fact is that it didn’t get nominated for editing, and statistically (since you’re a big fan of the stats), that looks somewhat problematic for the movie to win BP. I remember last year, you argued how Gravity was unlikely to win BP because of its lack of a screenplay nomination, and several people downplayed that by arguing Gravity wasn’t a screenplay movie and writing/dialogue wasn’t “in the nature of the movie” or something similar to that. And you would not let them get by with that argument, yet now you’re kind of using the same argument to explain away Birdman’s lack of an editing nomination.
All movies this year are showing kinks in the armor, which makes the BP race interesting. Birdman has a critical PGA win on a preferential ballot and a SAG Ensemble win, but it lacks the critical editing nomination and Keaton seems to have dropped down on the Best Actor scale after the SAG loss, which doesn’t prove anything, necessarily, and yet feels somewhat important. Boyhood lost the PGA it was expected to win, which obviously shows it’s beatable, and if Linklater doesn’t win DGA, Boyhood is unlikely to win BP. American Sniper has no directing nomination and a huge controversy on its back. The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game have multiple nominations but haven’t been winning enough to indicate them as potential BP spoilers. Selma has too few nominations to win BP. The Theory of Everything is probably getting rewarded through Redmayne’s performance, and Whiplash has pretty much fallen out of the discussion over the past couple of weeks. But one of these movies has to win BP, obviously, and is going to do so despite its weakness. I still think, along with pretty much everyone else, that it’s Birdman vs. Boyhood at this point, and any other BP winner would be pretty surprising. DGA will determine if Boyhood is still competitive or not. If DGA goes with Linklater, as I still expect they will, then it’s going to be a tricky call in BP between Birdman and Boyhood. If DGA goes Inarritu, it’s over and BP is Birdman. If anyone else wins DGA, I’ll weep in confusion.
One final note: I agree that comparing PGA results from an era before they used the preferential ballot isn’t particularly helpful, but also remember that PGA has been using the preferential ballot only over the past 5-6 years, so batting 100% with the Oscar BP isn’t that impressive when you’re looking at such a small sample size.
5. Redmayne mentioning Bradley Cooper twice in his acceptance speech indicates how front-of-mind Eddie’s ONLY threat is. It’s still Redmayne’s to lose, so maybe the double mention wasn’t a good idea.
@Steve50, good call out. It was like a Freudian slip. Eddie’s agent and minders have probably prepared him in the past two weeks that it’s not Keaton he has to worry about, but Cooper. It was a lovely speech, and I’m rooting for Eddie all the way, but I would be equally happy if Cooper won the Oscar – I was that moved by his performance in American Sniper. I wish there was a tie for both Eddie and Bradley. 😀
Only 9 movies won Best Picture without an editing nod
BUT
only 2 movies won PGA and SAG without winning Best Picture
If it’s only Birdman and Boyhood — both being unconventional choices — it seems Boyhood fits the Academy better. If Birdman wins, it might just become one of the quirkiest films to win BP.
But who knows, right? If it takes DGA, I may believe Birdman is actually happening.
Keaton is still taking the Oscar. The fact that they gave “Birdman” ensemble was the opportunity to award both Redmayne and Keaton.
I’m also starting to feel a “Birdman” upset at Oscars…which is fine by me…because “Boyhood” wasn’t anything great.
-UJ
“Also, it’s my own problem what I decide to spend my energy on. And I’m not being #condescending# to anyone who hasn’t been condescending himself. #(If that WASN’T directed at me, then you can just ignore that last comment – or do whatever you like, really.)#”
Claudiu Dobre
Thanks for your reply.
I’ve read the whole (quoted) paragraph.
Just to be clear: No, that was #not directed to you.
I was referring to *another username whose nom du plume is four-syllable and whose time zone might be close to mine — not your dulcet name.
[*I admired what seems to be part of his/her intelligence; au . . . contraire, sometimes I found his/her sarcasm, the condescending tone of his/hers, and most importantly, hypocrisy, the last of which, mind you, in general I disliked most, to be quite unfitting (to begin with) . . . .]
I didn’t read your current talks with Zooey but, taking your username into account and the way it could possibly be pronounced, I guess miscomprehension could have taken place.
As always, I am totally #cool with you, and your seemingly healthy discussions with Zooey in this time round, too. Cheers!
—
(Sometimes, only sometimes, it just felt a bit irritating for one by chance to happen upon some hypocritical comments, the ones in response to others by means of misquoting and manipulation to an extent.
Though myself usually being but a third party, occasionally I couldn’t help but silently taking that as an act of insulting to the micro-universe around me and my life force energy when someone purposely pulled an angle, deliberately misquoted other readers’ comments while being manipulative in process.)
Takeaways from last night:
1. Frances McDormand continues her awesomeness and shows why she’s the smartest one in the room.
2. Birdman’s win at both SAG & PGA may look forbidding, but I’m guessing it really isn’t.
3. Imitation Game is officially finished if Cumberbun couldn’t show.
4. The only way I can reconcile the fact that the same group awarded Orange is the New Black and Downton Abbey is to hope that the casts swap settings for the next season. Downton cast in prison and Orange cast frolicking in the halls of Downton.
5. Redmayne mentioning Bradley Cooper twice in his acceptance speech indicates how front-of-mind Eddie’s ONLY threat is. It’s still Redmayne’s to lose, so maybe the double mention wasn’t a good idea.
6. Debbie Reynolds is still a trip.
I think DGA will go to Linklater. From the beginning when the film premiered at Sundance, it has been hailed as a directorial achievement. That’s also why I’m convinced that if Boyhood loses at DGA, its chance of taking BP at the Oscars will become rather small. If the DGA does goes to Boyhood as most expect though, the race is back on. And just like Gage says, add the BAFTA GBH win to that mix, and we’ll have a race even more exciting than the 12 Years a Slave VS Gravity race last year. The weird thing about last year that while there was possibility of Gravity winning BP, most of the other categories were rather fixed, especially with Gravity expected to sweep the tech categories. This year, it’ll be an exciting Oscar night, with races like Animated Feature, Score, Editing and some other craft categories that are far from fixed.
Cheers, for an exciting month ahead of us!
So far we have asumed that Birdman is the frontrunner because it won the PGA, I have some doubts, thou. In the same way we knew all along that Boyhood’s chances of winning the SAG were pretty slim, could’nt have we overestimated Boyhood’s chances of winning the PGA? I mean, if we understand that award as a recognition of a huge undertaking and team effort—where not only directors, actors and writers play a part, but also cinematographers, sound engineers, music composers, and other technicians—, didn’t the producers, then, make the honest choice by picking Birdman over Boyhood? In this sense, Boyhood is an exotic animal. It’s a labor of love of one man and a close circle of friends. But, and this is the big question here, can we really conclude that that snub is the way the Academy is telling Linklater “we don’t like your movie and I will not vote for you”? To me, this time the DGA will have the final word.
It’s fascinating how a once-thought to be so boringly predictable Oscar race has had such a tide shift in two days! No more clear frontrunners for Picture, Directing and Actor. Kudos to the PGA and SAG for bringing excitement back to the race! Of course you can’t possibly make every single race unpredictable though, so Patricia Arquette and JK Simmons have it in the bag. And if there was still some bit of doubt about Julianne Moore’s Oscar, I believe she has a comfortable lead in the race at this point.
That being said, I hope the BAFTA picks The Grand Budapest Hotel so that we can have somewhat a three-way race to the Oscars! But, if Iñarritu wins DGA (as I am currently expecting him to), Best Picture will seem like a done deal.
Birdman is the quintessential ACTORS movie — it has a varied cast of well known actors in lots of large and small roles, they all ACT and ACT and ACT as if their lives are at stake, and it is ABOUT actors, and how crazy/brilliant(annoying) they are. So it is no wonder the SAG voters loved it. And Boyhood is not an actors movie — it is a movie of small understated moments, where the lead character is a nobody who just seems like a real kid. So it is no surprise it didn’t win the SAG.
While actors are the biggest group of Academy voters, I still feel that Boyhood will do much better among all the non-actors in the Academy and still prevail.
“If you’re analyzing, go back and see how many films that won the Globe, had the most Oscar nominations and an editing nod won best picture!”
Without either the PGA, DGA or SAG win? I can tell you right now: none.
“all you do is looking for arguments for Birdman and ignoring the rest!
Yes, I rely on hunches.”
I see – and you’re accusing ME of being irrational. OK. (And thanks for doing my job for me!)
“I don’t care whether you see my point or not.”
Of course you don’t, especially since you don’t have one (other than that “Boyhood will win because I say so”).
“spending time trying to be ironic (ten posts written in the same arrogant manner without saying much) doesn’t bother me.”
Nor does your doing the same bother me. What bothers me is that, unlike me, you don’t actually bring statistically sound arguments to support your ironies. If I’m not saying much, then I guess I’ve been talking to myself (sure feels like it), because it would necessarily follow that you’ve not said anything at all. For which reason, I’m rapidly losing interest, so, you know what, it’s OK! You have my permission to talk yourself into thinking you make sense. I’m going to sleep now. Argument postponed – although I honestly hope you stand by your (apparent) decision and stop wasting both our times, as this has become most pointless and unstimulating, especially since you’ve, after having your feeble arguments refuted without much effort, decided, instead, that you rely on hunches.
If you’re analyzing, go back and see how many films that won the Globe, had the most Oscar nominations and an editing nod won best picture!
Yes, go on analyzing the way you think you do, but all you do is looking for arguments for Birdman and ignoring the rest!
Yes, I rely on hunches. I don’t care whether you see my point or not.
Boyhood is winning. And spending time trying to be ironic (ten posts written in the same arrogant manner without saying much) doesn’t bother me. I’m going to live my life now. Bye!
“And yes, I do believe that the DGA will go with Linklater”
Again, such compelling arguments… I just don’t know what to say… So you BELIEVE it, then?… Well, that’s it! I’ve decided. I’m betting the house!
“the PGA honored in the past: The Crying Game, Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, Moulin Rouge!, The Aviator, Brokeback Mountain”
ALL BEFORE the switch to the preferential ballot. How about since then? (And please, PLEASE don’t make me explain AGAIN why Gravity doesn’t count as a “miss”, I’ve already had to do it once today, in another thread…)
“And actually the editing on Birdman was crucial and the process was very well covered in the press”
OK, you’ve got my interest… Elaborate, please! Links? Articles?
“After all, The King’s Speech, 12 Years A Slave, Shakespeare In Love all got editing nominations and they aren’t editor’s films either.”
How do you figure? Besides, there’s another argument here – Birdman’s editing was primarily done with the help of visual effects, very little traditional editing. Hence the snub. Is that the case for those movies as well?
“If Innaritu somehow takes it for his film, then the film is winning. ”
Whoa, whoa, hold on… without the editing nomination?! OMG, are you serious?! That’s not happened since… like… 1980… how could it POSSIBLY happen again… like… EVER?!…
“The Grand Budapet Hotel […] statistically it’s better positioned to take the Oscar than Birdman – editing nod and Globe victory!)”
At least think before you speak – it’s got no guild wins. It’s way dead. Unless you think it’s winning DGA – make up your mind!
“even though the front-runner for best actor was snubbed”
You’ve still not provided any kind of evidence for why that’s relevant. Also, he was barely a front-runner, more like a slight favorite. Did you check the bookmakers’ Oscar odds before last night? If you had, you’d know I’m right.
“Well, to me this doesn’t mean much.”
Oh, well, then it must be true! 🙂
“The DGA, on the other hand, does.”
Like it did last year? Like it did for Saving Private Ryan and Brokeback Mountain? Again you’re picking what matters based on your own agenda. You’re not being objective.
“you don’t mind when you are the one speculating)”
I’m not the one who started speculating, you are. I was just pointing out how easy it is to speculate, in order to get you to realize that your speculation was meaningless… (apart from being far less plausible) Have you? (realized)
“That’s why most of us are here.”
Speak for yourself! I analyze – I’ll leave the speculating to you.
“And afterwards all the Birdman hopes of taking picture are over.”
That’s also false, by the way.
“Sasha
[…] No hidden agenda here, I’m looking forward to your thoughts in the wake of PGA and SAG.”
What’s the point? The DGA is the only thing that matters, haven’t you heard?!
Also, it’s my own problem what I decide to spend my energy on. And I’m not being condescending to anyone who hasn’t been condescending himself. (If that WASN’T directed at me, then you can just ignore that last comment – or do whatever you like, really.)
(From a man pulling a bird in his head like someone with a split psnlt to a “three-months”-a-year holier-than-thou 4-syllable hyp who seems to have been secretly enjoying Guilds’ Awards while, in his or her generalization, being condescending upon other readers the latter of whom simply perhaps happen to be enjoying their lives and cheering for someone or something they’ve been supporting, . . . what a day . . . .)
Anyway, congrats to all, especially Redmayne [sp] and Birdman the latter for the Ensemble.
—
Sasha
[…] No hidden agenda here, I’m looking forward to your thoughts in the wake of PGA and SAG.
(Side note: Quite a waste for Gone Girl somehow to have missed the BP nom spot, though. Personally, I believed GG’s Screenplay category was relatively strong; so, no #big surprise. But for the BP “snub”, well, . . . .)
—
While I would be happier to see either Birdman or Budapest Hotel rise to the BP occasion [talking about the win], and despite the PGA and SAG “precursors”, it seems unsure for now as to which one among Boyhood, Birdman, Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game (and perhaps American Sniper) will prevail at the end of the day.
@ Claudiu Dobre,
Woody Allen has done a visually complex film with a great screenplay and solid performances. It’s called MANHATTAN and it wasn’t even a best directing nominee, even though it plenty of critics’ awards.
And yes, we’re speculating here. That’s why most of us are here.
And yes, I do believe that the DGA will go with Linklater, which will be the end of Birdman’s Oscar chances.
On your speculating that the lack of an editing nod was a fluke and no the PGA win (which is speculation, again, but you don’t mind when you are the one speculating), the PGA honored in the past: The Crying Game, Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, Moulin Rouge!, The Aviator, Brokeback Mountain and last year, Gravity (even though it was a tie). And during that same time (from the fluke called The Crying Game until now) no film has won without an editing nod. And actually the editing on Birdman was crucial and the process was very well covered in the press, so I believe that was a major snub. After all, The King’s Speech, 12 Years A Slave, Shakespeare In Love all got editing nominations and they aren’t editor’s films either.
All you build your assumption that Birdman is the favorite are the 9 nods (sound mixing, sound editing and cinematography have never been categories where Boyhood would get nominated and if you count The Grand Budapet Hotel’s editing nod, statistically it’s better positioned to take the Oscar than Birdman – editing nod and Globe victory!), the PGA win and the SAG ensemble victory (even though the front-runner for best actor was snubbed and the film has a big ensemble of recognizable and well-liked actors). Well, to me this doesn’t mean much. The DGA, on the other hand, does. If Innaritu somehow takes it for his film, then the film is winning. But I doubt it. Linklater will take it, he’s no lock. But he’s far more likely. And afterwards all the Birdman hopes of taking picture are over.
WGA won’t be irrelevant. If Boyhood wins it, it will give it fresh air. If The Grand Budapest Hotel wins it, it won’t fortify Boyhood’s frontrunner status but will give Birdman a stronger competitor for the Original Screenplay gold.
PS: I just saw Eddie Redmayne’s acceptance speech. It was so heartwarming that he can prepare his Oscar speech, cause he’s 100% winning it.
“If it were up to Statistics Gravity should have won best picture (PGA and DGA).”
That is ridiculously, profoundly false. Take any post I made last year, explaining why that’s completely wrong… It involves statistics – OTHER statistics, that maybe you’re not as aware of as the ones everybody seems to know by heart. STRONGER ones, with 100% accuracy (not like PGA+DGA, which has lost twice before – besides, it wasn’t even PGA+DGA, it was PGA tied + DGA, which is so different it’s not even funny, because 12 Years also won the PGA).
“BIRDMAN has no editing nomination”
That’s the one probably valid argument against it right now. But, and I quote ANOTHER AL: “Birdman was apparently shot in sequence and edited within a few weeks. It’s not an editor’s movie.” Given that, it’s not at all clear whether it was ever going to get nominated.
“So that snub is crucial.”
So, not that clear. What if THIS is the fluke, not the PGA win? 😮 Do you really need me to list ALL of the reasons why that’s far, far more plausible?
Also, heard of a little movie called Argo?…
“So far BOYHOOD has one supporting female actor at the SAG Awards for Arquette, who’s a lock for the Oscar. How many acting locks does BIRDMAN have? Oh, wait, ZERO! It could (and right now it’s likely to) lose all three.”
So? Show me the stat that says you have to win acting Oscars to win Best Picture! (I’ll spare you the trouble – there isn’t one. Some BP winners do, some don’t.)
“So, yes, I believe Linklater is a lock for the DGA.”
Ah, but do you bring any actual, statistical proof for this? Nope. Just your opinion… despite the fact that more experienced people, who’ve been doing this for a bit longer, have just expressly said they now disagree that it’s a lock.
Such confidence!…
“Does BOYHOOD have all the crucial nods? Yes, it does.”
Does Boyhood have the crucial guild win it requires? No, it does not, and it’s NOT a lock to get it, either (no matter how much you insist). Even the WGA (for which Birdman was ineligible, anyway, which kind of renders it irrelevant) is far from guaranteed. Is Boyhood even the favorite there? The Grand Budapest Hotel, anyone?!…
“BOYHOOD will probably take the Eddie as well.”
Again, where’s the evidence?
“And by the way, given the enthusiasm everybody in the room showed when BOYHOOD won the Globe, I’m pretty confident that the PGA is a fluke.”
Yes, very convincing – I’m touched! Kind of weird that it did lose the PGA, though, right? Such gargantuan enthusiasm somehow leaves room for a fluke… with a group of 6000+ voters… How does one go about explaining that?…
The beauty about statistics is that they are not rules. If it were up to Statistics Gravity should have won best picture (PGA and DGA). Adrien Brody shouldn’t have won Best Actor. Alan Arkin shouldn’t have won supporting actor. The same goes for Streep best actress(Iron Lady). Waltz best supporting actor (Dajango). Argo best Picture. Etc. Etc. Moreover, there will never be a true an honest consensus regarding a deserved oscar winner. That is why the nominations in my opinion are more important. Nothing can correct an undeserved snub (e.g. Flynn for adapted screenplay, DuVernay best director, Oyelowo for best actor, Birdman for Score, Lego Movie). Nominations are the only real recognition that Mr. Oscar can give. And this year he messed up in almost every category. Is that a statistic or is it becoming a rule:)
@Sato,
I didn’t like Redmayne’s performance. I hated his film. But Sean’s performance was a disgrace. Just take a look at footage of Milk and then ask yourself why Penn mimicked his I Am Sam performance.
“If Mickey Rourke could lose for The Wrestler, Michael Keaton can definitely lose for The Birdman”
Except that Sean Penn deserves it because he gave a better performance than Rourke (as much as I also love Rourke’s work in The Wrestler). I honestly cannot say the same thing with Redmayne.
So far BOYHOOD has one supporting female actor at the SAG Awards for Arquette, who’s a lock for the Oscar. How many acting locks does BIRDMAN have? Oh, wait, ZERO! It could (and right now it’s likely to) lose all three.
BIRDMAN has no editing nomination and well, history has proven that it matters. When was the last time a film won without an editing nod? Well, 1980. And it wasn’t the technical feast that BIRDMAN is. So that snub is crucial. Does BOYHOOD have all the crucial nods? Yes, it does.
And by the way, given the enthusiasm everybody in the room showed when BOYHOOD won the Globe, I’m pretty confident that the PGA is a fluke. And BIRDMAN has been the favorite to take SAG even before the PGA win.
So, yes, I believe Linklater is a lock for the DGA.
And the film has a shot at the WGA, which BIRDMAN doesn’t.
BOYHOOD will probably take the Eddie as well. It’s doing good. Don’t you worry!
I can’t believe how many people are now predicting Cooper to win Actor based purely on Sniper’s box-office. It’s not gonna happen. Like… I can’t even put into words just how unlikely this is to happen. Thinking he has any kind of chance is bad enough, but betting on him for the win is insanity. Boggles my mind.
“If Mickey Rourke could lose for The Wrestler, Michael Keaton can definitely lose for The Birdman”
And he’s going to, it seems. The last 10 SAG winners in this category also won Best Actor at the Oscars, and 17 out of the last 20, a stat I wasn’t particularly aware of until now (due to lack of interest, mostly).
But, seriously, people should stop with this Little Miss Sunshine comparison, it’s way weak and ONLY similar in the potential PGA+SAG vs. DGA scenario, and in no other way, really. Surely, one can come up with better examples to support the theory that Boyhood is still the front-runner…
Let’s get real! We ALL know the Oscars do NOT reward Best Acting but Best Transforming. So of course Redmayne has the edge! The only thing that could save Keaton is if he were perceived as a Hollywood Veteran making a comeback, but he’s not particularly overdue oscar-wise so it’s hard to make such a case for him. If Mickey Rourke could lose for The Wrestler, Michael Keaton can definitely lose for The Birdman (haven’t seen any of them but both performances had similar trajectories: anticipation, early buzz, frontrunner status, noms all-around, disappointing finish).
Plus Little Miss Sunshine wasn’t about actors, wasn’t a great directorial feat (so how could it even compete for the DGA?) and didn’t have Birdman’s exceptional production values (it’s a lot closer to Boyhood, in that respect).
“It looks a bit like when Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA, SAG (and also WGA where Birdman can’t score this year), but missed the DGA and ultimately failed to make a serious dent at the Oscars. However it did manage to score a win in the acting category that didn’t win either the Globe or the SAG Award (but Arkin did win the BAFTA). There are a few holes in that theory though :). Has Linklater got the star power of Scorsese?”
Also, Birdman has 9 nominations (and is the co-leader), whereas LMS had 4, and no Best Director nomination (in addition to no Best Editing nomination). Plus, it was a (not as dark/serious as Birdman) comedy. AND Birdman’s editing snub is very easy to explain. If you ask me, it’s a COMPLETELY different situation.
Somehow I’ve got the feeling the race has gone off the rails. Birdman gets ensemble, but not best actor? Redmayne has got the Globe and SAG, which in most cases equals to winning the Oscar. Boyhood charmed the critics, but apparently is not very popular with the guilds. In my opinion the Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay and Best Actor categories are wide open. I also have the feeling the BAFTA won’t matter much in the overall race (it would be a shocker if they didn’t go for Redmayne, but the Director nod for Marsh kinda says it all). Right now it’s only the DGA that can shed some light on where is this going, and that’s a contest between Linklater and Inarritu.
It looks a bit like when Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA, SAG (and also WGA where Birdman can’t score this year), but missed the DGA and ultimately failed to make a serious dent at the Oscars. However it did manage to score a win in the acting category that didn’t win either the Globe or the SAG Award (but Arkin did win the BAFTA). There are a few holes in that theory though :). Has Linklater got the star power of Scorsese? Probably not. Will Redmayne generate some negative buzz like Eddie Murphy did, that will eventually lead Keaton to victory? Probably not. Right now the only thing I know is that if the PGA lines up with the DGA the race is over. If it doesn’t, my money is on the DGA’a pick, no matter what the BAFTA’ll have to say.