Rope of Silicon’s Brad Brevet has waded the territory of early Oscar predictions. He’s humble enough to admit nobody knows anything and that only three from his list last year ended up making it to the final race. Things are going to change significantly if the Academy decides to go back to five, or god willing, to an even ten. Right now we have to think about Oscar predictions in terms of “heart light” movies about good people that make voters feel good about themselves.
Pundits will reject films with darker themes because of this, no matter how good they are. Inside Llewyn Davis one of the best films of the year? Forget it, he is not a likable character. Foxcatcher, Gone Girl and Nightcrawler define the year’s best films? Forget it, ew scary people. Ew, not likable. At least they saved face by nominating Selma because if they hadn’t and this month rolled around with the President of the United States in Selma, Alabama the Academy could not look more out of touch.
But let’s look at Brad’s list and see what kind of films might be offered next year. Are we looking at another “Dick in a Box” year or will the dudes who run the Academy broaden their way of thinking even a tiny bit to remember the other 50% of the human population?
I don’t know, let’s have a look shall we?
How do you find Best Picture? You can usually follow the distributor. Fox Searchlight has won Best Picture two years in a row now. Warner Bros. took it in 2012 and then it was The Weinstein Co. for two years. Summit took it in 2009. Fox Searchlight again in 2008. Miramax had it for No Country for Old Men in 2007. Warner Bros. again for The Departed in 2006. Lionsgate had it for Crash in 2005. Warner Bros. for Million Dollar Baby in 2004. And on it goes.
The way you read the race, though, isn’t so much by distributor, although that certainly helps. You also have to look at Oscar strategists and/or publicists. The ones who get paid per nomination and then paid again per win are going to push a lot harder than those who simply work for the studios in their publicity department. For hire strategists are usually attached to these winners. Their names are only really known by those of us in the business. They stand behind much bigger names like Harvey Weinstein, for instance, who used to work with Lisa Taback, or Scott Rudin who often works with Cynthia Swartz. Generally speaking if you have any of the big names attached to a movie you now it’s going to get very close to Best Picture. They are good at their jobs and they leave no stone unturned. For better or worse.
The organic part of the race comes when the movies are screened at festivals and SEEN by those distributors. They pick a winner and they run with it (unless they already know they have one in-house, as with Argo in 2012).
At any rate, predicting Best Picture isn’t rocket science because of that. We can play this game of looking at the filmmakers and the plots and the studios but in the end on paper (Unbroken, Into the Woods, etc) is no match for a film that has the right ingredients to go the distance and the right publicity team behind it.
As we look forward to another year of the Oscar race I already feel tired from the fights that haven’t even happened yet trying to defend this story starring women, this film directed by a woman, this film (will there be any) about a woman that has nothing to do with a man.
The last thing I care about is catering to the needs of Oscar voters by dumbing down the choices to what “they” will like. That is a waste of my time and yours. I try to push movies that are good enough, movies that break new ground, and movies that are either about or made by minority filmmakers. I try as hard as I can to push against the consensus not because I don’t know exactly how it will play out (after 16 years of this, my friends, I KNOW) but because there is nothing about the Oscar race that matters otherwise. Those voters all have mirrors they can look into to see a reflection of themselves. I do not wish to be one of those.
About Men
Midnight Special, directed by Jeff Nichols (Father/son)
Black Mass, directed by Scott Cooper, Whitey Bulger movie, Johnny Depp
The Walk, starring Ben Kingsley, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, directed by Robert Zemeckis
Icon, directed by Stephen Frears, (Lance Armstrong) Ben Foster
Bridge of Spies, directed by Steven Spielberg, starring Tom Hanks
Snowden, directed by Oliver Stone, Joseph Gordon-Levitt
The Sea of Trees, directed by Gus Van Sant
Steve Jobs, directed by Danny Boyle, Michael Fassbender
The Revenant, directed by Alejandro G. Inarritu, Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Hardy
Truth, directed by James Vanderbilt (Robert Redford, Cate Blanchett supporting)
Concussion, directed by Peter Landesman (Will Smith)
Trumbo, directed by Jay Roach (Bryan Cranston, Diane Lane supporting)
Triple Nine, directed by John Hillcoat (Aaron Paul)
**Money Monster, directed by Jodie Foster (George Clooney/Jack O’Connell, Julia Roberts supporting)
Genius, directed by Michael Grandage (Colin Firth)
About Women and Men
A Bigger Splash, directed by Luca Guadagnino (couples drama) Matthias Schoenaerts, Tilda Swinton, Ralph Fiennes, Dakota Johnson
Demolition, directed by Jean-Marc Vallée, About a man rescued by a woman, Jake Gyllenhaal, Naomi Watts
Me & Earl & the Dying Girl – Fox Searchlight, directed by Alfonso Gomez-Rejon
The Danish Girl, directed by Tom Hooper, starring Eddie Redmayne
The Hateful Eight, directed by Quentin Tarantino
An Irrational Man, directed by Woody Allen, Joaquin Phoenix, Emma Stone
About Women
Far from the Madding Crowd, directed by Thomas Vinterberg (Carey Mulligan) (May 1)
Carol, directed by Todd Haynes, (Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara)
Brooklyn – Fox Searchlight, directed by John Crowley, young girl’s coming of age (Saoirse Ronan)
Joy, directed by David O. Russell,(Jennifer Lawrence)
Ricky and the Flash, directed by Jonathan Demme (Meryl Streep)
Our Brand is Crisis, directed by David Gordon Green (Sandra Bullock)
Of all of these, only one is directed by a woman and it is starring men, about men. In most of these titles, with the exceptions of the few here at the bottom wherein your likely Best Actress contenders lie, you are mostly dealing with stories about men where women are supporting players or couples dramas. Women as stand-alone subject matter look to be mostly scarce in the Best Picture race.
Note how many films about women, and by women, are released into the dumping ground of March and April.
Eva, directed by Kike Maillo
Kumiko, The Treasure Hunter, directed by David Zellner
Effie Gray, written by Emma Thompson, directed by Richard Laxton.
Woman in Gold, starring Helen Mirren, directed by Simon Curtis
Clouds of Sils Maria, directed by Olivier Assayes, starring Juliette Binoche and Kristen Stewart
The Riot Club, directed by Lone Scherfig
Yes, finding films about women are few and far between. Finding films directed by women are practically non-existant. Finding films by women and about women? Almost impossible.
Next, we head over to Hollywood-Elsewhere‘s Cannes projections to see if there are any gets there, for Oscar, with women or not.
Spotlight, directed by Thomas McCarthy about sexual molestations in the Catholic church.
By the Sea, directed by Angelina Jolie with Brad and Angie co-starring.
The Last Face, directed by Sean Penn and starring Penn and Charlize Theron
High Rise, directed by Ben Wheatley, starring Tom Hiddleston and Jeremy Irons
That leads us over to Todd McCarthy’s Cannes predictions page, which brings us, potentially:
The Lobster, directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, Lea Seydoux, Rachel Weisz, Colin Farrell, Ben Wishaw
Regression, directed by Alejandro Amenabar, with Emma Watson and Ethan Hawke
And some random titles:
Welcome to Me, directed by Shira Piven, starring Kristen Wiig (May 1)
Mad Max: Fury Road, directed by George Miller starring Charlize Theron
Crimson Peak, directed by Guillermo Del Toro, starring Mia Wasikowska. (October 16)
The Lady in the Van, directed by Nicholas Hytner, starring Maggie Smith
Sisters, Jason Moore, starring Tina Fey and Amy Poehler
A Little Chaos, directed by Alan Rickman, starring Kate Winslet
Jane Got a Gun, directed by Gavin O’Connor, starring Natalie Portman
Lila and Eve, directed by Charles Stone, starring Viola Davis and Jennifer Lopez
Live by Night, directed by Ben Affleck, starring Ben Affleck and Sienna Miller
Once again, we are going to be flooded with bravura acting performances by men. And once again, we’re going to be flooded with supporting parts by women. And once again, we are going to see virtually no interest in stories about women. Hardly any. It’s just all so desperately sad.
Here’s the upside – this list doesn’t really show the films that might pop up on the festival circuit, which begins in May – Cannes, Venice, Telluride, Toronto. Perhaps somewhere in there something good might happen or women. I’m not holding my breath.
Thus, if I had to do Predictions in the top categories right now, based JUST on what I see here on these lists, I’d go with:
Best Picture (let’s pick 9 using the preferential ballot currently in place, voters get just five slots to pick their best)
Far From the Madding Crowd
The Walk
Icon
Steve Jobs
Trumbo
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Joy
Carol (I think the Academy is finally ready for Todd Haynes)
Possible
Money Monsters
Hateful Eight
A Bigger Splash
Demolition
Best Director
Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Hooper, Danish Girl
David O. Russell, Joy
Todd Haynes, Carol
Possible:
Robert Zemeckis, The Walk
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Jay Roach, Trumbo
Best Actor:
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Jake Gyllenhaal, Demolition
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Also possible:
Ben Foster, Icon
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Maggie Smith, the Lady in the Van
Carey Mulligan, Far From the Madding Crowd
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
There are so many more names that will be coming up but these are the ones that strike me off the bat.
My own personal most anticipated include:
Carol – OMFG
Joy (I think it will be funny)
Mad Max: Fury Road
Crimson Peak
Spotlight
A Bigger Splash
Money Monster
Trumbo
Midnight Special
Clouds of Sils Maria
But hopefully we’ll have many more titles to add. Being a fanatical Todd Haynes fan I’m mostly looking forward to his SECOND collaboration with Cate Blanchett, his first being his masterpiece, I’m Not There. So that is probably the one film I’m looking forward to more than any other this year.
Emma Thompson in nomination supporting actress (A Walk in the Woods or Adam Jones or Effie Gray).
The Assassin by Taiwanese master Hou Hsiao-hsien
Office / Design for Living by HONG KONG master Johnny To
both will be appeared in Cannes film festival and the official entry as OSCAR foreign film contenders , may be a strong contender of Cinematography ,Production Design, Costume Design and Original Score .
William Cheung is the Production and Costume designer of Johnny To’s “Office / Design for Living ” , he earned an OSCAR nomination for his work in ‘The Grandmaster ‘ .
Lee Ping Bin is the Cinematographer of Hou Hsiao-hsien ‘s ” The Assassin ” , he won a Cannes Technical Grand Prize for his work in ” In the Mood for Love”.
Trailer for Koreeda’s UMIMACHI DAIRY; very, very likely to end up In Competition. Otherwise lovely, the preview panders a bit to the manga set, but it’s Koreeda so I wouldn’t be to concerned, you genre skeptics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zw9IAF1Acs
I stumbled the very early Oscar predictions. Looks really good.
http://www.thecinemaholic.com/very-early-oscars-2016-predictions/
Would the Academy give a second Oscar to Eddie Redmayne before they give the first one to Leo? Yes, they will.
Color me naive (and I don’t care…I’ll hold out hope), but I don’t think clouds of sils maria is dead because of its release date. It’s the only film pre-june with any awards potential…and it’s common for one film to take advantage of getting out of the gate early…IF and a big IF, IFC sends early screeners AND the critics groups give it some life. I’m not saying it’s probable, but possible it survives, at least in the acting categories. But…maybe I’m just hopeful that a film with three, count em, three strong female roles gets real attention
As long as Avengers: Age of Ultron is asweome as advertised among fans AND critics, it has just as much right to be mentioned as a major Oscar nominee player as 20 arthouse niche movies combined.
Leo almost always comes across as phony to me. A child pretending to be a man. J-Law wearing mommy’s heels and make-up in American Hustle.
That’s why my favorite performances of his were characters who were pretending to be someone else, as in Catch Me If You Can, The Departed, and The Wolf of Wall Street. His phoniness a boon instead of a burden for these roles, so obviously “ACTING” as these characters when in reality he’s just this sweet little boy getting by on charm and mimicking the adults.
Hahahahahaha!!!! LOVE IT!!!!!
Joe, all I can think about when I saw that poster for The Lady in the Van was Little Miss Sunshine. Fan-freaking-fastic!!!!
Great find. 🙂
Predictions for best picture
Black mass
A bridge of spies
Brooklyn
The good dinosaur
Joy
The lady in the van
An irrational man
Ricki and the flash
Steve jobs
Thomas McCarthy unknown director? My gosh. I don’t know if to laugh or cry. Holy s**t!
@Nick
Hope Springs was quite good. It was just not baity. (should be a plus point though, but people seem to forget the movies exists)
Ricki and The Flash sounds more like Postcards from the Edge.
Meryl plays an aging rockstar, that alone is way more interesting/baity than a sexual frustrated wife. She sings and plays the (electric) guitar, which is not as difficult as the violin, but still a skill to learn and the Academy LOVES it when Meryl learns new skills.
Oscar nom or not, I can’t wait to see and hear this.
I’m a little surprised
that Freeheld w/
Julianne Moore,
Ellen Page and
Steve Carrel aren’t
mentioned very much
in this story. I’ve been
reading a lot of positive
stories about this up-
coming film from
Lionsgate.
Carol, Joy, Sea of Trees….
These are mine. I’m looking forward to JLaw sinking her teeth into something that sounds slightly quirky.
Before I accidentally offend anyone, I want to explain what I mean by unknown director. I mean I have either not heard of any of them before, or in the case of Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead is his first directorial film.
I forgot to add to the list of Known Directors, Previously Best Picture Nominated
Knight of Cups – Terrence Malick
With Malick you never know.
I made a list of possible Best Picture nominees, and divided them up to make better sense of them:
Known Director, Previously Best Picture Winner
Bridge of Spies – Steven Spielberg
In the Heart of the Sea – Ron Howard
Irrational Man – Woody Allen
Ricki and the Flash – Jonathan Demme
Snowden – Oliver Stone
Steve Jobs – Danny Boyle
The Danish Girl – Tom Hooper
The Martian – Ridley Scott
The Revenant – Alejandro González Iñárritu
The Walk – Robert Zemeckis
Known Director, Previously Best Picture Nominated
Aloha – Cameron Crowe
Demolition – Jean-Marc Vallée
Icon – Stephen Frears
Joy – David O. Russell
The Hateful Eight – Quentin Tarantino
The Sea of Trees – Gus Van Sant
Known Director
Beasts of No Nation – Cary Fukunaga
By the Sea – Angelina Jolie
Carol – Todd Haynes
Everest – Baltasar Kormákur
Our Brand Is Crisis – David Gordon Green
Southpaw – Antoine Fuqua
Trumbo – Jay Roach
Unknown Director
45 Years – Andrew Haigh
Brooklyn – John Crowley
Freeheld – Peter Sollett
Genius – Michael Grandage
Macbeth – Justin Kurzel
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl – Alfonso Gomez-Rejon
Miles Ahead – Don Cheadle
Spotlight – Thomas McCarthy
Suffragette – Sarah Gavron
“I hope Eddie Redmayne pulls a Tom Hanks, and WINS his second Oscar for The Danish Girl!”
Blasphemy!
Kane, I respect Duvall’s commitment, but not a fan of the picture in general so maybe that’s just it.
In any sane world SILS MARIA would be in serious conversation for Best Picture, Actress (Binoche), Screenplay and and Cinematography. But our world ain’t sane, so it won’t.
Leo’s best performance is The Wolf of Wall Street. Who just said Cameron Diaz is funny? HELL naw. And Blanchett and Gosling is more interesting than DiCaprio,?. I would watch his performance BEFORE both.
Bryce…get rid of Robert Duvall in The Apostle for DiCaprio??? No sir. In my opinion Duvall deserved the Oscar that year. I never saw Ulee’s Gold and only saw half of Wag the Dog and thought Hoffman was very good. I like Damon in GWH.
While I love the other 4 actors mentioned for Best Actor, I hope Eddie Redmayne pulls a Tom Hanks, and WINS his second Oscar for The Danish Girl!
Al, he was r.o.b.b.e.d. of a nomination for TITANIC.*Easily* get rid of *anyone* on that ’98 line-up for DiCaprio (ok maybe not Damon) and what he did opposite Winslet. CATCH is my 4th favorite film from 2002.
Good lord, Sasha – give the gender equality thing a rest. There is some stuff about women, less women are interested in becoming directors in general – there are reasons for the disparity beyond just a long standing sexist design to keep women down.
Every article with you these days, and for too long I think. Delusional.
Top 10 Leo performances:
1. Gilbert Grape
2. Wolf of Wall Street
3. Titanic
4. Basketball Diaries
5. Blood Diamond
6. The Departed
7. Django Unchained
8. The Aviator
9. Catch Me If You Can
10. Shutter Island
Goonnow,
Even if you don’t like Leo you can’t deny the man has made so many great movies. I mean, C’mon now.
One of the highlights of 2014 was NOT having a David O Russell movie in the awards race. Seeing him with Tony Revolori at the Oscars took the smile off my dial. Joy, huh?
Yeah, I doubt next year best actor and best actress will have 10 actors that have been nominated before, most of them winners.
I’m also looking forward to Carol- I’m Not There is easily the greatest musician biopic of all time, as well as The Sea of Trees and That’s What I’m Talking About.
But the one I’m most looking forward so far is The Lobster. I’m mean, it’s from the director of Dogtooth and look at the premise:
“In a dystopian near future, single people are obliged to find a matching mate in 45 days or are transformed into animals and released into the woods.”
Tell me this doesn’t sound like awesome?
And Joy is probably the movie I look forward the LESS next year…David O. Russell is getting more shameless about wanting an Oscar every year, and having Jennifer Lawrence playing a 35 year old mother of three is the most ridiculous thing he’s ever done. Just pathetic.
Bryce, it’s still pretty cool you’ve got Titanic #1 anyway. Yay!!
He way so great in Catch Me If You Can. I think even better than he was in Gangs of New York.
I’m sort of ranking the performances and not so much the films however if I don’t like a film I don’t consider that performance was not even considered for this ranking:
Top 10
1. Leo in TITANIC
2. Leo in WOLF OF WALL STREET
3. Leo in CATCH ME IF YOU CAN
4. Leo in REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
5. Leo in DJANGO UNCHAINED
6. Leo in ROMEO + JULIET
7. Leo in THE DEPARTED
8. Leo in WHAT’S EATING GILBERT GRAPE
9. Leo in SHUTTER ISLAND
10. Leo in THE AVIATOR
Honorable mentions: Leo in anything pre-TITANIC, with a special mention to Leo in THE QUICK AND THE DEAD; Leo in GANGS OF NEW YORK where he’s the hottest he’s ever been in a motion picture (in my very humble opinion), which is maybe why I like the picture more than I should. Maybe.
Guilty pleasure: Leo in THE MAN IN THE IRON MASK — I know, I know, indefensible.
p.s. He is not my favorite actor but the man has been in so many great movies.
That is a nice grouping of actors to be apart of. They’re intense alright. I just had a random thought:
What if Leo had been in Take Shelter instead of Michael Shannon. Would the film have been nominated for any Academy Awards, and especially would Leo have been nominated? Might he have even won??
Hmm, saw this boy’s life many years ago – not huge impression. Interesting question about which part of his career – i like bits and pieces from the beginning, the middle and recent, That says more about my taste in genres than his work. I put Leo along side Michael Shannon, Ryan Gosling, Michael Fassbender as among the most interesting actors to watch on screen. The intensity meter.
Correct that. He took a major boost in credibility when he started working with BOTH Martin Scorsese AND Steven Spielberg. You can’t get much better than having a movie from both director released just days apart. DAMN!!
Thanks Daveinprogress. I will do that. What about This Boy’s Life?
What’s funny, most people divide Leo’s career between pre-Titanic and post-Titanic. I tend to go pre-Gangs of New York and post-Gangs of New York. I think his career took a major boost in credibility once he started working with Martin Scorsese. Of course, I still love Titanic the most, but still.
Make that Marvin’s Room. I’m having technology and finger problems. Embarrassed.
Al, i know you are a man of great taste! Check out ‘Marvin’s Rom’ – Leo, Meryl, Diane Keaton. Some great work from all 3,
Daveinprogress, since Leo is probably my favorite actor, I’ll rank the movies he’s been in (based on what I’ve seen, and not by his performance):
1. Titanic – James Cameron – 1997
2. The Departed – Martin Scorsese – 2006
3. The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese – 2013
4. Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino – 2012
5. Inception – Christopher Nolan – 2010
6. Gangs of New York – Martin Scorsese – 2002
7. The Aviator – Martin Scorsese – 2004
8. Shutter Island – Martin Scorsese – 2010
9. Catch Me If You Can – Steven Spielberg – 2002
10. Revolutionary Road – Sam Mendes – 2008
11. The Beach – Danny Boyle – 2000
12. Blood Diamond – Edward Zwick – 2006
13. The Basketball Diaries – Scott Kalvert – 1995
14. What’s Eating Gilbert Grape – Lasse Hallström – 1993
15. J. Edgar – Clint Eastwood – 2011
16. The Great Gatsby – Baz Luhrmann – 2013
17. Body of Lies – Ridley Scott – 2008
18. The Man in the Iron Mask – Randall Wallace – 1998
19. Celebrity – Woody Allen – 1998
20. Romeo + Juliet – Baz Luhrmann – 1996
Leo will pull a Pacino and be rewarded for a crappy, baity picture where he has something terminal or someone close to him does. Di Caprio is an excellent example of the tall poppy syndrome. The guy has an amazing filmography going back 20 years, with an array of genre pics; more often than not imbuing them with his requisite intensity ala Pacino. Always the best man, never the groom? I think he is one of the best actors of his generation. It seems the haters gonna hate on him.
Leo will pull a Pacino and be rewarded for a crappy, baity picture where he has something terminal or someone close to him does. Di Caprio is an excellent example of the tall poppy syndrome. The guy has an amazing filmograpy going back 20 years, with an array of genre pics; more often than not imbuing them with his requisite intensity ala Pacino. Always the best man, never the groom? I think he is one of the best actors of his generation. It seems the haters gonna hate on him.
“By the way Cameron Diaz is under-appreciated, and naturally funny”
Robbed of an Oscar for THE COUNSELOR
“He’s no where near as interesting as Blanchett, Gosling, Fassbender, Kidman and Tilda.”
DiCaprio is WAY more interesting than stone-faced Gosling. I agree the other four are superior actors.
In fact, I think he was better as a young actor and Gilber Grape is his best performance – basically he should have won the Oscar for that.
I think he’s done too many Scorsese films. How can that even be a bad thing since Marty is great? Not sure, he just gives me Same old Same old vibes in all Scorsese films he’s done. All of the characters in Inception are paper thin as many people have mentioned in the past. And again, not planning to offend anyone, I do think he’s a good actor. But defo more of a star than an actor. He’s no where near as interesting as Blanchett, Gosling, Fassbender, Kidman and Tilda.
By the way Cameron Diaz is under-appreciated, and naturally funny – something most actors, and people actually, aren’t.
Can you explain WHY he is “limited”? And to.compare him to Cameron Diaz of all people isa tragedy. And I agree with Bryce. If Kevin Kline is great in Ricki, then he could be considered too. But the film will be on Streep’s hands, as well as Cody and Demme’s.
Oh Jesus. I hit send and then I get another brain flash.
Leo’s performance in Shutter Island too is really one for the ages. He is so good in that movie.
The two movies in which he appeared that I disliked were Titanic and Gangs of New York (for what it’s worth).
OH yea, I forgot his great turn in Django Unchained. He was brilliantly evil and mean in Tarantino’s film. I’m surprised he wasn’t Oscar nominated for this role. He is certainly Christoph Waltz’s equal in the movie, I’ll give him that much.
“[DiCaprio}’s almost a Cameron Diaz”
OUCH! That one really hurt. I’m not sure I would go THAT far with my critic of Leo’s acting chops, Goonnow. Tee hee.
I will say that I have become a convert of watching him over the years. I think he just gets better with age: his performances in Inception, Revolutionary Road, The Great Gatsby, and The Wolf of Wall Street all come to mind as having most impressed me.
I’ve never seen Eating Gilbert Grape, but all my friends tell me he was amazing in that movie. It’s one that I need to watch sometime.
Sorry but Leo is a limited actor
not a bad actor, but a limited one.
He’s almost a Cameron Diaz but in serious films directed by legends. Hence, the awards and nominations thrown at him.
The acting is the best part of HOPE SPRINGS and otherwise it is thoroughly competent. Editing issues? I liked it very much, but nobody’s saying it was America’s answer to AMOUR.
Now, based on the talent involved, RICKI AND THE FLASH has the looks of essential American cinema. But I agree that, on paper, it is not a slam dunk for Best Picture, let alone Best Director. $100M+ at the Box Office would help the cause a great deal, I reckon, and that possibility rides on Streep’s shoulders alone — however, acting nominations seem to be at hand and if it’s very good it could perfectly get in for the script, depending how competitive the category turns out.
But, then again, last year at this time, I would have had these predicted as Best Picture nominees:
Foxcatcher
Fury
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Selma
Unbroken
Whiplash
I am looking forward to The Revenant, and Leonardo DiCaprio is my favorite actor, but, I’m a little Alejandro González Iñárritu ‘d out. I think if it’s pulled off correctly, then I don’t see why it wouldn’t be a major Oscar player.
Here are my predictions right now for Best Picture nominees:
Beasts of No Nation
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Icon
In the Heart of the Sea
Snowden
Steve Jobs
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
I thought “Hope Springs” was enjoyable enough. I saw it on a cruise ship (not a theater) and maybe it was my good mood, but I thought Tommy Lee Jones was the actor who really shined in this movie. It was a harmless enough movie. Kinda fun if you could get into it. But It was fluff. Not awards-worthy. A nice film. But not a great one.
I would be so happy if Ian McKellan and Maggie Smith garnered nominations this year, as well as Kate Winslet.
One film that hasn’t been mentioned for awards consideration (or at least I didn’t see it), is “Suite Francaise” with Michelle Williams (YES, another one I look forward to) . . . paired with Kristin Scott Thomas (YES, one of my favorite actresses) in a very unusual story about a French woman who falls for a German soldier in WW II. I’m really looking forward to its release. Wasn’t it supposed to go into general release this spring?
Given the Academy’s short memory span, it won’t even be up for consideration, I suspect. Nevertheless, I may be its champion (just like I was for Colin Firth in “The Railway Man” . . . a terrific performance that should have been recognized by an AMPAS nomination. Had that film been released in December 2014, Firth would have been one of the locks Ryan had talked about in an earlier thread.
And how is Leo a “limited actor”? True, he’s been beaten by superior performances but he has also been.snubbed for a few. He certainly deserved .Oscar for Gilbert Grape.
I beg to differ. Hope Springs was good. The writing was decent for someone’s first screenplay. The acting was poor? The performances were natural. Meryl was very realistic for an elderly woman wanting a connection with her husband. It wasn’t one of her best, but it was good. Tommy Lee Jones was Tommy Lee Jones but it was necesssry for this type of character. I don’t see how the editing was “poor”, there was nothing wrong with it.
But this isn’t about Hope Springs. I was talking about Ricki. I trust Jonathan Demme with this one as well as Diablo Cody. Best Picture wise? We’ll have to wait and see.
What about Lily Tomlin for GRANDMA? Seems like a good candidate to get the Bruce Dern in NEBRASKA treatment potentially.
Nick, Hope Springs was a terrible film, poorly written, poorly acted (by two legendary actors, as if that wasn´t enough) and very annoyingly edited. Several times I had to pause the film because I thought the music was coming from some other tab because a lot of the times it felt so out of place. I understand I am not the target demographic but still, one can distinguish when a film is made with laziness.
Ummmm, The Iron Lady did not have good script. Im not saying Hope Springs was a mediocre film, it was very good. I am just saying, Ricki could land only a GG nom for Meryl and that’s it. But are they gonna campaign for her? Yes, they will. If she gets enough praise and deserves her 4thOscar, I will be happy. She honestly should have already beaten Hepburn’s record.
Most anticipated “actor” films for me, off the top of my head:
M. Fassbender and M. Cotillard in “Macbeth” (YES!)
K. Winslet in “A Little Chaos”
M. Smith in “The Lady in the Van”
I. McKellan in “Mr. Holmes”
M. McConnaugh in “The Sea of Trees”
C. Mulligan in “Far From the Madding Crowd” – a remake (the original film with Julie Christie and Alan Bates is one of my favorite movies of all time).
C. Blanchett in “Carol”
I think this looks like an even more exciting year for films than last year.
OMGGGGG!!!!! Seems like an awfully boring year, hope to see some pleasent surprises. Hope Linklater´s goes further than expected. Can Orson Welles be nominated? I think Iñarritu and Del Toro will be purposelly ignored no matter how good they films are.
“I just wish people would STOP compairing Ricki and the Flash to Hope Springs already.”
LOL’ing forever at whoever is doing that. First of all HOPE SRPINGS is a fantastic film, second, no.
“Unless Todd Hayness had made big changes on the original material but Cate Blanchet’s character is clearly not the main one”
:::::SPOILER ALERT:::::
:::::SPOILER ALERT::::::
Uh? “big changes”?? Have you read it? She’s in A LOT of the, uh, pages. And the fact that Haynes went with the alternative title “Carol” should be a hint. It’s a co-lead situation, it’s a romance right from pg. 50 or so until the “happy/optimist” end. My guess is they’ll sidestep much of Richie (or Ricky) stuff. Also, it’s Blanchett.
It bothers me SO MUCH to see film writers and Oscar pundits fall back into the habit of predicting the usual suspects of “Oscar fare” SO QUICKLY after a very troubling Oscar season–one where they were more than vocal about how the Academy failed minorities and women. But now, as far as I’m concerned, these same writers are already failing minorities and women again by choosing the irresponsible path in how they talk about the upcoming year.
The reason we get more of the same every year is because every year these writers devote space to the same. Oscar pundits posting these “early predictions” care more about getting a high percentage of them right than they do to use their voice to change things. Indiewire’s The Playlist posted early predictions in the acting races that included only 3/40 non-white actors (if we accept their expanded predictions of 10 in each category) all of which were in the Supporting Actor field. Sasha included 0 non-white actors in the lead categories.
How can anyone expect the Academy to, in JANUARY 2016, imagine a not all white Oscars if pundits can’t even imagine one in MARCH 2015?!
Good fucking grief.
Iron Lady?! That was an awful script!!!!
@Nick
Abi Morgan wrote the script for “Suffragette” and also wrote the script for “The Iron Lady” (which was nominated at the BAFTA and British Independent Film Awards BTW).
I just wish people would STOP compairing Ricki and the Flash to Hope Springs already. Meryl actually got great reviews for HS but it was HER wish not be campaigned for it.
How marvelous for you guys to include the movie “Carol” from oscar winning actress Cate Blanchett and omitted the powerful and inspiring movie “Freeheld” from oscar winning actress Julianne Moore. Assuming 1) you havent heard that the movie was acquired by lionsgate in high seven figures upon seeing the sizzle reel. 2) you havent seen the 12 minute trailer that was uploaded a few weeks ago before Julianne Moore won the academy. Or 3) you just dont like julianne moore at all. But then again, this is the oscar blogsite who failed to predict julianne moore during the oscars, critics choice, golden globes, sag and bafta. The latter , to which you posted your prediction that rosamund pike or felicity jones will win and backed it up with a link from a blogger who was supposedly a member of bafta which that person supported the british actresses and strongly agree that julianne moore will never win the baftas. Surely, awardsdaily.com is a very credible awards blogger. (Pun intended)
Aside from Carol, I’m mostly looking forward to Fassbender and Cotillard in Macbeth. Those two are obviously great together since they’ve been cast again in something else recently, and I reckon they’ll set the screen on fire!!!
Any bets for what film will be this year’s Gone Girl/Selma for Sasha? Maybe Carol for the Gone Girl personal favorite not getting enough love and Suffragette gets advocated for Best Picture due to the importance of the subject matter.
Is there any major films about the African-American experience? Last three years Sasha has advocated Lincoln, 12 Years a Slave, and Selma. What fits that bill this year?
Unless Todd Hayness had made big changes on the original material but Cate Blanchet’s character is clearly not the main one
I’m hoping for more people of colour this awards circuit. Ken Watanabe has a role in The Sea of Trees and I’m kinda hoping he gets some recognition for that – despite the fact that he is the go-to Japanese actor for that one Japanese character in a movie – I laughed when I saw him on the cast list, but love him anyway. Very excited for Carol since it has queer themes. Not so excited for Joy because I actually hate David O. Russell. I know I’ll probably hate it because of the O. Russell, Lawrence and Cooper trio again – I hate it hate it.
My most anticipated movie is DOPE – which is young, fresh and diverse. Perhaps you can bring to light some films this year with PoC in them? Unfortunately it is lacking. :/
btw, really want Carey Mulligan to be brilliant in her two movies this year so that she can finally win the Oscar.
I applaud her for not overworking and for being super selective.
Carol under Harvey power can easily up with a truckload of nominations
Actress
Supporting Actress – Mara
Supporting Actress – Paulson (we had that in “Doubt” and “The Help” and not only)
Supporting Actor – Chandler
Picture
Director
Adapted Screenplay
Costumes
Score
Cinematography
am I forgetting something?
I hope Tom Hardy will put in great performances this year. I feel he was absolutely robbed for The Drop and Locke. But, unlike some of you, I don’t root for someone until I’ve actually seen the performance. I’m somebody’s biggest fan until they give a disappointing performance and I drop them like a dirty kleenex. I’m ruthless that way.
Leo Di Caprio and his lack of an Oscar is the most annoying meme on social media. Honestly, he’s a limited actor and he has always been beaten by superior performances.
As for Carol, I was (very vaguely, a distance I liked to keep as Ms. Highsmith was personally ferocious) acquainted with Patricia Highsmith. I once asked her what her favorite and least favorite books were. She loved “Animal Lover’s Book of Beastly Murder”, a collection of short stories about animals who get revenge on people (she MUCH preferred animals to people). She said her least favorite was “The Price of Salt” which she originally published under a pseudonym because of the subject matter. She said it was a corny soap opera. Don’t know that she would approve of the movie. She certainly hated most of the movies made of her books.
and I know the early money is it finally being Leo’s year. He’s got a meaty starring role in the next thriller by the last Oscar winning Director and DP, big serious “I AM ACTING” beard, all that shit.
But yo, Fassbender tho. Jobs, Macbeth, Light Between Oceans…man is making some moves before he goes all blockbuster franchise-y in 2016 with X-Men and Assassin’s Creed.
Mad Max for the sweep, you heard it here first ladies and gentlemen!
I’m so excited for Carol it looks fantastic and I love Todd Haynes style and it’s about time for him to receive a proper recognized. Don’t underestimate Mcbeth though, it has the Weinstein behind it.
Cate Blanchett is so likely to win her 3rd Oscar ! Mark my words! So many things are actually screaming she has a hood chance and i really can’t see what is it that could make us not consider her to be the frontrunner already; 1) well respected actress by audiences,critics AND the academy 2) Todd Haynes long over due as a director 3) romance with two women who fall in love in America! In the 50s! 4) Is it just me or anyone else also sees this as the academy’s chance to correct the 2005 mistake and award the female Brokeback mountain?
“Gerard Depardieu has a shot at a Best Actor not for his performance in “Welcome to New York” which hits theaters in March”
Oh word? So it should be “eligible” this year? I’ve seen it and it’s the best performance I’ve seen in 2015. Oscar friendliness isn’t on *that* film’s wheelhouse I’m afraid.
I can tell already that if the Revenant gets great reviews, critics will want Leo to be the frontrunner. And whoever said Cate Blanchett will be nominated for Cinderella or even is in conversation of being nominated for that; keep dreaming. Whoever asked if we are underestimating Ricki and the Flash, I see your point. A trailer would have to come out though and like I said, I see it having the same reaction to that of Rachel Getting Married. Streep could be like Hathaway and be 3rd best choice for a win.
I don’t know about MacBeth, we’ll have to wait and see on that one
What about Freeheld? I read that Lionsgate snapped it real quick after seeing only a few minutes. Can Julianne Moore repeat
for best actress and Ellen Page nominated for supporting. And it’s based on na oscar winning documentary short about a lesbian couple fighting for pension rights.
I think Gerard Depardieu has a shot at a Best Actor not for his performance in “Welcome to New York” which hits theaters in March
I just hope we don’t in the very near future start disrespectfully calling Blanchett the “automatically nominated” 5th contender. Someone has to inherit the Streep heat, I guess.
Any reason to plug, right?
http://f—nobuttheresaposter.blogspot.com/2015/02/predicting-88th-academy-awards-or.html
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA truly not happening in 2015, is it? Oh well, as we were!
^ Typed too fast lol. Meant Carol obviously.
Yep, I’m really looking forward to Carl and Joy the most as well. I love Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence, Todd Haynes, and David O. Russell. Rooney is really good as well. I just hope some female driven films make more of a dent at the awards this year. I think it would be cool if Virginia Madsen gained some traction for Joy and got her second nomination. No idea what her part is though. Either her or Diane Ladd. Anywho, that cast is pretty great.
Very much so looking forward to Carol, Suffragete, Suite Francaise, Revenant, Bridge of spies, among many,
But really. REALLY. I just want to see one superb film that is unimpeachable in its greatness. I don’t care whos in it, what its about, who directed it. I want to be blown away. Sure, Ive seen quality cinema over the past few years; films that I talk up or have seen at least twice. But Its been quite a few years since I was blown away by something. A meaty drama, an outrageous comedy, a genre-defying masterpiece. Anything.
I’m glad I’m not the only one excited about Spotlight and Mad Max: Fury Road. Big fan of Tom McCarthy, and the former looks like a riot either way.
Very much anticipating a high profile Haynes to take the lead with critics this year, only to be done in on the last mile Linklater/Fincher style (not that it matters). It has been too long since his last feature. Carol joins A Bigger Splash and The Lobster on my most looked forward to films that Oscar is probably certain to shun.
I’m going to need proof, affidavits, and a money-back guarantee to get on the Joy bandwagon. Mr Russel’s last three were fingernails on a blackboard for me.
Icon – hopes it’s the breakout for Ben Foster. It’d be great fun if he takes the Oscar the same year the “missus” takes the Emmy.
Most of all for me? Macbeth and Mad Max. The year of MacMax, something for brows of every elevation.
This is the first I’m hearing about “Icon” (the Lance Armstrong biopic) and it looks very interesting. Ben Foster has long been one of those underrated great actors that’s just aching for a breakout part, and this could well be it. Stephen Frears has a good track record even if it’s been a while since his last really terrific movie — Philomena and The Queen were good but nothing special, though the fact that both were nominated for Best Picture shows that Frears is still in touch with Academy tastes.
“Bridge Of Spies” is such a generic name but everything else about that project seems interesting.
Call me crazy, but I still think the new Star Wars film might be a wild card in the Oscar race. If it’s really good (or at least good enough to eradicate the bad taste left over from the last three prequels), it has a shot at making the Best Picture field as this year’s version of the late-breaking American Sniper-esque huge moneymaker. For most blockbusters I wouldn’t consider them as Oscar candidates, yet Star Wars does have some Academy history behind it and the franchise is so culturally massive that I can see an above-average SW installment capturing a lot of nostalgia votes within the Academy.
“Macbeth” totally needs to be at least mentioned on the contenders list. Everything about Marion Cotillard-as-Lady Macbeth screams “Oscar nominee.”
Sasha,
I really get a sense for your excitement and anticipation for these mentioned titles . It’s nice to see you in good spirits and looking optimistic on 2015. I think the 2014 awards season really soured you, it’s great to see your love for the movies come back to life
Has By the Sea gotten bad reviews? I am intrigued by the look, setting and time period.
Where are MacBeth and Suffragette???
Effie Gray is not good at all. The 1950’s BBC radio play of the same story was so much more thrilling, just sayin’…
Just for kicks, I address phantom’s interrogation
2. MACBETH will probably be better, but put your money on the other one…if anything at all
3. Doubt it. She’s in for CAROL though.
4. No.
6. If it’s meant to be Oscar-wise, expect more of a WHIPLASH/SOUTHERN WILD trajectory for that one than anything similar to FAULT. I don’t even see the BO appeal to be honest, I mean not anything along FAULT’s numbers.
7. In all likelihood. I’m a big Gyllenhaal guy as I’m sure you know, but why are we excited about this one again?
8. Not sure but I’m stoked for every reason you cite + Sebastian Stan <3
9. No.
10. No idea. Who directs?
“1. Would the Academy actually consider giving Redmayne a second before giving DiCaprio his first ?”
My God, don’t even mention it.
Answer: Abso-effing-lutely they would, yes.
My most anticipated:
Brooklyn
Joy
Macbeth
Carol
In the Heart of the Sea
The Revenant
Oscar-wise these are the most interesting questions I have for this year (for now) :
1. Would the Academy actually consider giving Redmayne a second before giving DiCaprio his first ?
2. What will be Fassbender’s big Oscar role : Macbeth or Jobs ?
3. Could the brilliant Cate Blanchett be a double nominee again ? Cinderella in supporting (she is getting raves at the moment), Carol in lead ?
4. Even though it will be a (very) limited April release, could Kristen Stewart get an Oscar nod for her history-making (Cesar) supporting turn ?
5. Could Julianne Moore (Freehold) become only the third – and first since the 60s (Katherine Hepburn) – back-to-back Best Actress winner ?
6. Could Me and Earl and the Dying Girl accomplish what the acclaimed smash hit The Fault in Our Stars couldn’t (=Oscar recognition) ?
7. Will Jake Gyllenhaal’s latest massive transformation (Southpaw) go unnoticed just like his previous one (Nightcrawler) did ?
8. Are we already underestimating Ricki and the Flash directed by Demme (Silence of the Lambs), penned by Cody (Juno) and headlined by Streep ?
9. If Spectre repeats the Skyfall success, will the Academy give a damn this time ?
10. Will Suite Francaise figure into any of this ? Based on the source material, distributor (Weinstein) and talent involved, it looks good…I’m seeing it this week.
P.S. I really hope they go back to five because the expansion failed miserably : on paper the goal was to give a fighting chance to the acclaimed genre films that are usually not considered “Oscar material (The Dark Knight (too comic book-y), Bridesmaids (too light and raunchy (=female), Skyfall (too bond-y), The Fault in Our Stars (too teen-y)) and instead of giving these a nod, the Academy just went out of their way to find MORE films that are right up their alley (An Education, A Serious Man etc.). Long story short if they couldn’t be bothered to think outside the box, they really don’t need a bigger box, they should just go back to the small one…
Kate Winslet has too many films to be left out of the forecasts.
– Steve Jobs
– The Dressmaker
– Triple 9
– A Little Chaos
Here’s the thing about CAROL; it’s Haynes adapting “The Price of Salt” which sounds absolutely amazing and it probably will be, I mean, surely. Now, I’m not sure how Oscar friendly the prospect sound, and, to be honest, I’m not sure how much I want it to be. Best Todd has ever done with The Academy was FAR FROM HEAVEN (only 4 noms! Including writing and actress), so I fear CAROL could be well farther outside their comfort zone/taste latitude than the Sirk-ian saga — but then again, it’s Weinstein so we’ll see, right? However I *do* expect acting nominations and the “tech” aspects of the film are sure to bring a lot of attention to themselves.
Jennifer Lawrence’s chances of scoring that elusive second Academy Award for an Actress in a Leading Role looking swell…as well.
Russell’s JOY will give birth to a new cinematic syntax (think BREATHLESS), to that add he is highly overdue and we might have a winner already in March, folks.
@Nick
Thankfully it was not.
I can’t wait to see some of these titles in Telluride!!
I wonder if any of the huge blockbusters make the cut this year. If one does, what do you think has the best shot, Tomorrowland?
My way too early predictions, with my pick to win listed first:
Joy
Steve Jobs
Bridge of Spies
The Revenant
Demolition
The Hateful Eight
The Danish Girl
The Walk
Black Mass
Our Brand is Crisis
Brooklyn is simply terrific!! Has the crafts, performances and mood all going for it. Incredibly polished and might go far with Academy – like An Education- if they don’t default back to 5 Best Pic nominees. I will keep hoping it resonates and enters the race…
I dont have faith in Suffragette all that much. Wasn’t that directed by the woman who made Mamma Mia and The Iron Lady?
Sasha, you’re forgetting Suffragette! Written and directed by a woman, starring Carey Mulligan, Meryl Streep and Helena Bonham Carter, all about women’s right to vote. Looks like it’s going to get a big prestige push come the fall.
Best Picture:
The Revenant
The Sea of Trees
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Beasts of No Nation
Brooklyn
St. James Place
Best Director
Alejandro G. Inarritu
Gus Van Sant
Todd Haynes
(Dont know the rest)
Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl
Matthew McConaughey- The Sea of Trees
Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs
(Need help with one more)
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett- Carol
Saorise Ronan- Brooklyn
Meryl Streep- Ricki and the Flash
Jennifer Lawrence- Joy
Naomi Watts- Demolition
I am most excited for the Revenant, Sea of Trees, Carol and Hateful Eight. I’m not pro-David O. Russell at all unless Joy is another great, different version of Erin Brockovich, the idea of a Miracle Mop sounds boring. Carol’s story sounds intriguing and Cate Blanchett should be great in.it, as I was not impressed with Blue Jasmine. Ricki and the Flash will either be MerylStreep’s Hope Springs or it will be another Rachel Getting Married. I am more interested in how she will play the character than the actual film itself. Leo will probably get that overdue Oscar unless Eddie Redmayne pulls a Tom Hanks.
Best Actor:
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Ben Kingsley, The Walk
Jake Gyllenhaal, Demolition
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Ben Foster, Icon
Hmmm, four guys under 40, two of them Oscar winners. Should be interesting to see how this lineup changes over the next 11 months.
Umm….Kingsley is not lead in The Walk. The movie is about Philippe Petit, JGL’s character.
Umm….Kingsley is not lead in The Walk. The movie is about Philippe Petit, JGL’s character.
Ah okay thanks.
Carol and Joy are my most anticipated.
Carol and Joy are my most anticipated.
Me too!