Michael Patterson has been predicting the Telluride lineup for a while now and has compiled what he thinks are the ten most likely titles to land. Why it matters: Telluride has screened the Best Picture winner for the past ten years. Not since The Departed has the eventual winner not screened — or premiered — either at Telluride or somewhere else before Telluride.
2014 – Birdman — Venice/Telluride
2013 – 12 Years a Slave — Telluride
2012 – Argo — Telluride
2011 – The Artist — Cannes/Telluride
2010 – The King’s Speech — Telluride
2009 – The Hurt Locker — (year prior)
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire — Telluride
2007 – No Country for Old Men — Cannes
Why this rule continues to apply has to do, I think, with the Academy’s decision to push their ceremony date back one month, which eventually shifted everything back, which now means the race is decided behind the scenes. It also could be the safe harbor Telluride represents. Unlike other film festivals, critics and bloggers must pay their own way in at $750 a pop. Thus, the attendance is limited to those who are either being sent there by bigger outlets or there because their passion for film compels them to be there. Also, the Telluride people who select the films could have similar tastes to industry voters.
Patterson has chosen ten films he thinks will go. Is the eventual Best Picture winner among them? Or will this be the year the streak is finally broken?
Here are the features he’s predicting
Steve Jobs
Carol
Suffragette
Room
Anomalisa
Beasts of No Nation
Black Mass
Son of Saul
These will represent the underdogs expected to beat the Big Oscar Movies coming out in October or later in the year and those include: Bridge of Spies, The Revenant, Spotlight, etc. And the ones already seen in Cannes that could have a shot: Sicario, Youth and the already mentioned Carol.
Telluride begins at the end of this month, right on the heels of the Venice Film Festival.
I looked into my crystal ball the other night, and I discovered that there could likely be the 9 for Best Picture:
Steve Jobs / Danny Boyle / October 9
Bridge of Spies / Steven Spielberg / October 16
Suffragette / Sarah Gavron / October 23
Spotlight / Tom McCarthy / November 6
Carol / Todd Haynes / November 20
The Danish Girl / Tom Hooper / November 27
Joy / David O. Russell / December 25
The Hateful Eight / Quentin Tarantino / December 25
The Revenant / Alejandro G. Iñárritu / December 25
I believe Joy is the frontrunner. David O. Russell has been on a streak which usually culminates into a win. Oscars dig that kind of stuff. Personally, I’d really love to see Inside Out winning BP.
I am calling it now, the best picture race will be Suffragette VS. The Danish Girl with Suffragette winning Best picture and Sarah Gavron winning director at the 2016 Oscars.
The Danish Girl and Suffragette are the baitiest films this year.
1. Suffragette does have an October release date just like Birdman, Twelve Years A Slave, Argo.
2. Both films have big casts
3. Academy loves British films, so they would go for Suffragette
4. Both films feel important
5. Both films have strong rooting factor
6. Both films are based on historical events
7. The Academy likes films that take place overseas, especially Europe. example The Imitation Game, Les Miserables, The King’s Speech, The Queen, etc
8. Suffragette will likely play at Telluride
9. Both Danish Girl and Suffragette will get the most nominations
10. Both films are timely
Both films are massive and will get insane rave reviews. My bold predictions are Suffragette to score 100/100 and The Danish Girl to score 97/100 on Metacritic. They will easily crack double digits in terms of Oscar nominations, I am predicting both Suffragette and The Danish Girl to score 11 nominations.
I’m so happy to see that so many of us think differently. We all see a different scenario, and it’s great because it keeps things interesting. Let’s keep it coming everybody. 🙂
I’m anticipating a massive push to compensate for last year, where much needed calls for diversity were louder than ever. It’s not the frontrunner right now (I think that’s Steve Jobs), but I think that combined with all that has surrounded Suffragette since it started shooting, it’s my pick for winner right now. With the effort to have a more diverse voting body in who they asked to join this year, it seems possible.
BLACK MASS is your winner from that group. And Joel Edgerton gets Supporting Actor because THE GIFT.
I am calling it now, the best picture race will be Suffragette VS. The Danish Girl with Suffragette winning Best picture and Sarah Gavron winning director at the 2016 Oscars.
The Danish Girl and Suffragette are the baitiest films this year.
1. Suffragette does have an October release date just like Birdman, Twelve Years A Slave, Argo.
2. Both films have big casts
3. Academy loves British films, so they would go for Suffragette
4. Both films feel important
5. Both films have strong rooting factor
6. Both films are based on historical events
7. The Academy likes films that take place overseas, especially Europe. example The Imitation Game, Les Miserables, The King’s Speech, The Queen, etc
8. Suffragette will likely play at Telluride
9. Both Danish Girl and Suffragette will get the most nominations
10. Both films are timely
Both films are massive and will get insane rave reviews. I am predicting Suffragette to score 100/100 and The Danish Girl to score 97/100 on Metacritic. They will easily crack double digits in terms of Oscar nominations, I am predicting both Suffragette and The Danish Girl to score 11 nominations.
Let’s just go down the list:
Steve Jobs – Probably in, very strong contender for Best Actor, doubt it will win Picture. Feels too on-the-nose (like Lincoln).
Carol – Hopefully in, strong for Adapted Screenplay, Lead and Supporting Actress, but I don’t see it taking Picture either. It feels too low-key.
Suffragette – I don’t know about this one. I didn’t love the trailer and the Academy’s love affair with the British has cooled since The King’s Speech. We’ll see, but I think this might not make the cut.
Room – I sure hope so. As long as Brie Larson is nominated I’ll be happy. She might be its sole nomination, though.
Anomalisa – Oh, I’d love it if this happened. I would just be happy if it were good enough to be a contender. I don’t think it’s likely, but it’d make my day.
Beasts of No Nation – I don’t think so. Trailer didn’t look that good, the simultaneous Netflix release will probably hurt it, and the Academy is still kind of racist. So I’m thinking no.
Black Mass – It’s a September release. That alone has me skeptical. Not saying it won’t be good enough, but given how many other contenders are jostling for those slots, I think this could miss out.
Son of Saul – No. It’s hard enough for a foreign film to get on. I don’t see why this will change that. Foreign Film, absolutely. But Picture isn’t happening.
If Nick’s right, boy will I be delighted. One’s a film about a lesbian relationship in the 1950s, directed by a gay man, starring women in both lead roles, adapted by a woman from a novel written by a woman; the other’s a film about the Suffragette movement (natch), starring mainly women in its main roles, written by a woman and directed by a woman. Imagine…
Don’t see Suffragette going to Telluride though. London booked it as its festival opener, and I wonder if they might choose that to world premiere the film. London usually has at least one big premiere each year, and with Suffragette being a British film about a major moment in British history, it feels right to have it make its world debut on that stage. Could definitely happen that it goes to Telluride however – I’m certainly not ruling it out.
I mean NOT be a biopic… I’m sick of them.
Please, please, please let the Best Picture winner not be a biopic! I hope Carol is incredible…
I think Carol and Suffragette have the best shot of those 10. But i’m still thinking this year is going to Joy vs The Revenant.
A very interesting slate of movies we have this year. My first guess for Best Picture would be The Danish Girl, because of the timely subject matter, brilliant source material, and that Focus Features has come ridiculously close to winning multiple times before (The Pianist, Lost in Translation, Brokeback Mountain, Milk). But then again, Hooper won very recently and I don’t know if voters are willing to give him or one of his movies another Oscar so quickly. Steve Jobs would be a good possibility too (that centerpiece slot at NYFF could be a strong sign of its quality), but Boyle also won very recently and the similarly themed The Social Network didn’t take it either. I think Fassbender will be a strong contender for the win, but the film might not be. So, sight unseen, I would think the race is between Carol and Joy. The former has Weinstein and rave reviews from Cannes in its favor, and the latter has a director whose last three films all got great reviews and could be seen as overdue for an Oscar. So, here are my Best Picture and Best Director predictions for now.
—
Best Picture
1. Carol
2. Joy
3. The Danish Girl
4. Steve Jobs
5. Brooklyn
6. Suffragette
7. The Revenant
8. The Hateful Eight
9. Inside Out
10. Youth
—
Best Director
1. Todd Haynes, Carol
2. David O. Russell, Joy
3. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
4. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
5. John Crowley, Brooklyn (Fox Searchlight has managed at least one nomination here since 2010 so he is a VERY strong possibility right now)
—
As for The Martian, I’ll say this. Clearly people love the source material and the cast. But Ridley Scott’s recent track record is, um…not encouraging. Personally, I don’t have much hope for it and think its best chances lie in the technical categories if anywhere. That being said, I hope I’m wrong and that Scott does have at least one more great movie left in him.
At this point, I’m so jaded and cynical of the Oscar game, I’m gonna throw caution to the wind and pull as hard as I can for Inside Out to take top prize.
Lord only knows the people at Pixar deserve it after all these years.
I mean, just looking at the films that *could* factor into the most branches this year and have a double-digit nomination count (this is still my personal barometer for evaluating sight unseen what will be a major contender):
– Bridge of Spies
– Carol
– The Danish Girl
– The Hateful Eight
– In the Heart of the Sea
– The Martian
– The Revenant
– Suffragette
Personally, I think Carol, The Danish Girl and The Martian will have the largest impact in many branches and will be our top tier contenders.
I don’t think any of these 10 are winning
Right now I think the films with the best shots of winning are Joy, The Revenant, Youth and Inside Out (yes – I actually think it has a shot).
If Youth is going to Telluride, then count it as the front runner
Benutty is probably right. Or SNOWDEN.
The Martian is winning Best Picture.
As for Carol, I think there’s a great chance it will be nominated for Best Picture, but I don’t see it winning since Todd Haynes has not been nominated before, even though he’s had Oscar worthy films. I think what will likely happen is what finally happened for Wes Anderson and Richard Linklater last year, finally getting nominated, but not winning.
Right now I think Steve Jobs is in the driver’s seat for being the “front-runner” to win Best Picture. It’s premiering at a film festival, it’s being seen before November 1st, and it’s directed by Danny Boyle, who the Academy has already shown their love for before with Slumdog Millionaire. Plus, with Michael Fassbender in the role I think that’s a plus as well.