The Gotham awards used to come so early in the race no one paid much attention to them. Back then, the National Board of Review seemed too early. Now that the race is being covered by way too many people and the news media is hungry for any tidbit about anything that seems substantial, the focus on these early awards is even more intense. The National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics don’t even announce until December. These were sometimes deemed premature but what they can do is launch a film pretty nicely into the race. The New York Film Critics did that with American Hustle. The National Board of Review did that with American Sniper.
The Gothams, though, are a different ball of wax. They kind of orbit on their own planet that exists in the same universe as the Spirit Awards. The Spirit Awards, lately, are looking a lot more like Oscar. But the Gothams never really have. Still, this morning’s announcement does indicate a few key things.
First, let’s look at Gotham’s short history.
Last year’s nominees mirrored the Oscars pretty well because the Oscars, last year, were more independent leaning than usual. I do not think that will be the case this year.
Best Feature
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Love Is Strange
Under the Skin
Best Documentary
Citizenfour
Life Itself
Manakamana
Point and Shoot
Best Actor
Michael Keaton – Birdman
Bill Hader – The Skeleton Twins
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year
Miles Teller – Whiplash
Best Actress
Julianne Moore – Still Alice
Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Beyond the Lights
Scarlett Johansson – Under the Skin
Mia Wasikowska – Tracks
You can clearly see how much more brave and “young” seeming their choices are. But the year before, you can see the mismatch even more clearly, with one or two standouts.
The year prior:
Best Feature
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave
Ain’t Them Bodies Saints
Before Midnight
Upstream Color
Best Documentary
The Act of Killing
The Crash Reel
First Cousin Once Removed
Let the Fire Burn
Our Nixon
Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
Robert Redford – All Is Lost
Isaiah Washington – Blue Caprice
Best Actress
Brie Larson – Short Term 12
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Scarlett Johansson – Don Jon
Amy Seimetz – Upstream Color
Shailene Woodley – The Spectacular Now
So this is what you’re looking for, mainly. If the Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Actress are to come from an independent film, they should show up at the Gothams. This is not strictly true, of course. They can serve as a boost to a film that needs it, or an early indication of something that’s going to win the whole way through the race.
Last year’s oddity of having Boyhood and Birdman as the main frontrunners did warp things slightly but this is by no means the norm. The film industry is always better when the independent film awards like the Gothams and the Spirits part ways with Oscar because they are designed to do different things. Lately, though, the Oscar race has had to rely on independent filmmakers to tell the kinds of films they like – character driven dramas. This year, the studios are offering more of those up so I suspect the race will lean more heavily in that direction and away from independents.
So what got a boost?
Diary of a Teenage Girl leads the pack – that could lead to some kind of presence at the Oscars, either for Actress for Bel Polowy, Supporting for Kristin Wiig or screenplay for Marielle Heller.
Carol gets a major boost and may be the only one to join Spotlight at the Oscars for Best Picture. Tangerine gets some big time publicity which could also help boost that film. I suspect all three of these will also do well at the Spirit Awards.
Paul Dano could be seen in Supporting Actor at the Oscars, which would be great. Since the Gothams don’t have “supporting” that explains why Elizabeth Banks did not make it. The real action is in Best Actress, where Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, and perhaps Lily Tomlin all could use this boost.
Since Brie Larson is currently our predicted WINNER for Best Actress, seeing her show up here only confirms that prediction.
One final thing to note – the Gothams were basically judged by many of the same kind of individuals who will make up the New York and Los Angeles Film Critics. They have budgetary limitations here on what kinds of films they could nominate but you can see their preferences and what they’re leaning towards pretty clearly. I do not know whether there will be crossover when the critics on each coast get to their own awards.
It’s been on my mind for some time now with Carol, given it’s overwhelming acclaim and support yet still a potential snub in the making here, that Todd Haynes has something of an overdue / over-looked status (I know, we hate that). This of course depends on the mood of the Academy when reflected through the collective voting.
Finally it’s time for some stats!… 🙂 OK, so, since 2006, the eventual BP winner has been at least nominated here almost 50% of the time (4/9 times – Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, The Hurt Locker and The Departed), including the last two years in a row (which also seems somewhat relevant to me).
So this would mean Carol, and especially Spotlight, are looking slightly (and I do mean SLIGHTLY) better right now than the other contenders for a BP win, based on having been nominated here – as opposed to NOT being nominated. We know at least two other BP contenders were eligible here (Room and Love & Mercy), but many more, of course, weren’t, so this could easily mean nothing, or close to nothing. It probably does. But it does, if nothing else, support the theory that Spotlight is a major player in the BP-winning game this season. Personally, I’ve been very much in agreement with the notion that Spotlight is the no.1 favorite to take down BP, ever since it was first formulated. This does little in the way of cementing that, but it’s a good start. As for Carol, I can’t imagine it had any real chances of being snubbed here, given how well it’s been received (95 on Metacritic), so maybe for Haynes’ movie this is less of a big sign, but, nevertheless, it for sure can’t hurt…
“They can serve as a boost to a film that needs it, or an early indication of something that’s going to win the whole way through the race.”
Sounds about right.
“And I think that the Academy would like to repair the injustice they did with “Brokeback Mountain”.”
Maybe, maybe not… You never know exactly when they’ll decide to do something like that, or when they’ll decide to just stick to their guns, as usual. Still, it’s a possibility, and this seems like as good a time as any for them to do it, so this is definitely a good point to keep in mind!
I remember Brie beat Blanchett at Gothams right before she started steamrolling. Wonder if same could happen this year but JLaw is the train this time.
The Gotham awards are putting a spotlight on movies with little chance of Oscar hopes (Diary of a Teenage Girl, Tangerine, I’ll See You in my Dreams). For me this is what an indie award body should do. These nominations will increase viewership for these under seen indies. I just hope they are not the only award body to nominate Room and Brie Larson. She and Short Term 12 were robbed last year
didn’t the Hollywood film awards also announce their winners too? I think it was carey mulligan, benicio del toro, and I forget the other two lol
At the moment, Carol has been the only movie that has received big raves and passionate reviews. The reviews from NYFF and LFF were stunning. I think that Carol has everything to be a frontrunner: impeccable technical aspects, outstanding performances and a relevant subject. And I think that the Academy would like to repair the injustice they did with “Brokeback Mountain”.
Also, TWC is pushing hard for it, from what I’ve seen. They assembled an almighty showing at the London Film Festival for its gala premiere, clearly angling for relevance (eight women on stage, aligning well with the festival’s theme of strong women) and BAFTA votes. And you’re right – near-universally brilliant reviews, potential for nominations both above and below the line, an overdue, under-recognised director, the best Oscar campaigners in the business behind it and contemporary social relevance could help it sail to a most deserved victory.
Brooklyn wasn’t eligible, right?
I second that question!
I’ve found out the answer in the meantime (from Gold derby): “However, another small scale movie with big Oscar ambitions — “Brooklyn” — was ineligible for consideration as it did not meet the domestic production requirement.”
Phew! That’s what I thought. Thanks!
You’re welcome!
Is it surprising that ROOM is supposedly this force to be watch for the Oscars, but it only gets Larson a nomination here? I thought for sure we’d see it for Best Feature.
The Gotham nominations are the result of a small panel, so omissions aren’t really meaningful … besides, ROOM is more of an audience movie than a critics’ movie.
That being said, there’s no doubt that Larson is its strongest awards play. She’s a mortal lock for an Oscar nomination.
The Gotham nominations, as per usual, are such a great mix of fringe and borderline indie/majors. However, their nominations don’t ever really end up being the best predictors of which way the wind is blowing (That would fall to the Spirits, Globes and BAFTA). In actuality, it is the winners who will be the real clue towards figuring out who might carry over into the Oscar race. All in all, the Gotham awards are just a fun way to recognize great work in independent filmmaking that otherwise would (and will) have little traction elsewhere, unfortunate or not.