In looking over last year’s predictions around this time we were still caught up in movies that hadn’t yet played and/or been rejected, so Unbroken was still riding high, as was Interstellar, even though it had been seen. See, we don’t really “know” anything. We’re just guessing. And last year, even the best of them weren’t on target. Anne Thompson, Thelma Adams and Tim Grey were the only ones who had 7 out of 8 right. The rest of us had 6 out 8 right, which still isn’t that bad. Overall, the Gurus had 6 out 8 right on Thanksgiving weekend, as did Gold Derby.
Like last year, we were messed up because of the late breaking films that embargo reviews until after voting for so many of the critics awards, like the New York Film Critics or National Board of Review. Such is the case once again with The Revenant and Joy at least. Therefore, even if we think they might not be/or might be Oscar nominees, we can’t get that confirmed until the movies get reviewed, seen, talked about. Thus, we’re in a bit of a vacuum even now.
Foxcatcher was a film that should have and would have made it in if the Academy had ten slots for nominating instead of five. After all, three of the best “dark movies” made it on the Producers Guild but fell short of Oscar nominations: Nightcrawler, Foxcatcher and Gone Girl. Some of the Gurus would have perfect predicting scores if Foxcatcher had made it. It was close because Bennett Miller and Steve Carell were both nominated.
Thus, you have to start thinking about which movies might be too dark and thus left off the Academy’s narrow allotment of five slots. Their list will mirror the Producers Guild list minus 1 or 2 or 3. The biggest change I can see from this recent spate of Gurus predictions is that Anne Thompson has made the switch from The Martin to Spotlight, and Steve Pond has reversed it – he now has The Martian predicted. I do not know why they changed that way – but it’s usually a mixture of a hunch and some insider knowledge of some kind.
Right now, I think you could say with confidence that almost everyone has no idea what will win Best Picture. Spotlight has the pundits on its side and is beloved by many. It could easily win. Creed’s impact hasn’t yet been felt by the Gurus or on any other group at the moment. It is starting to look like that movie with have some momentum heading into the season but it’s not really clear if it will. Gaining momentum, I’d say, would be Carol and Mad Max: Fury Road.
Sasha has been the best this year of all the pundits on holding off judgement on movies not yet seen. Good for her! It always seems that the late-breaking movies get a perverse extra bonus over movies released earlier in the cycle (remember the ridiculous nominations that EXTREMELY LOUD (including Best Picture!!!) and AUGUST OSAGE COUNTY got?).
That said, SPOTLIGHT is head and shoulders above the other movies that I have seen thus far, but, I will hold off judgement until they have all opened. And, again, amongst those I’ve seen, the one I see as overvalued is easily THE MARTIAN. Good solid craftsmanship, but, Best Picture and/or Actor? So many better choices in both categories.
Carol should win. The most delicately made and transcendental film of the year.
The Revenant is much more ahead of Room. Poland’s biased prediction affects its odds.
Well Since my top pick for best actor Cliff Curtis movie ‘ The Dark Horse’ has been moved back to April 2016 ( Curtis will be a top Contender for Best Actor Next Year) I’m pulling for Michael Shannon ‘ 99 homes” for best supporting actor he’s brilliant in it and has received a Gotham best actor nom and a Independent Spirit Award best male support nomination I think if he gets a Golden Globe nom you have to out him in the Oscar discussion
A thousand times CAROL! For once I’m supporting a film that actually gets rave reviews. It’s a nice respite from a long career of turkey-picking (Les Mis, Saving Mr. Banks, Unbroken). Still sore that MacBeth has never been part of the conversation though, despite reaping very positive reviews (MC85), I guess Harvey just dumped it to concentrate all his efforts on Carol, could be a necessary evil.
Who are Michael Keaton and Paul Dano supporting, exactly?
SPOTLIGHT is a genuine ensemble. A Keaton nom wouldn’t be ‘category fraud’. Some movies have no single lead.
I’m nervous about BROOKLYN. I think it’ll be forgotten. Loved it, kind of thought it was slow, but then again I thought that about THEORY OF EVERYTHING and that did fantastically.
Having seen every contender except Joy and Revenant, here are my Best Picture predictions currently:
LOCKS:
1. Spotlight
2. Room
3. The Martian
SAFE BETS:
4. Brooklyn
5. Carol
6. Joy
7. The Revenant
8. The Hateful Eight
ON THE BUBBLE:
9. Creed
10. Bridge Of Spies
11. Steve Jobs
12. Mad Max: Fury Road
13. Inside Out
14. The Danish Girl
OUT OF THE CONVERSATION (for now):
15. Beasts Of No Nation
16. Anomalisa
17. Son Of Saul
18. Straight Outta Compton
19. The Big Short
20. Star Wars Episode VII
Is Feinberg the only Guru who watches American football? Because as I was watching it yesterday they were actually playing TV spots for CONCUSSION. I did not expect that. I thought the NFL would be trying to squash it. NBC has been covering concussion news lately as there was a big brouhaha last weekend when the Rams quarterback wasn’t taken out of the game and he couldn’t even use his arms to help himself stand up. Two days ago it was announced that the Gifford family have donated Frank’s brain to be studied because he had been diagnosed with CTE before his death. I think this movie will be massive. I don’t know what word on the street is, if it’s been seen, but I personally think it could be a big player that’s still to come. They even have tested high school athletes who’ve died and they showed up with the disease. Do you guys know how many people in this country and their loved ones are involved in football? Anyway, every time I see a new trailer it seems to be looming larger on the horizon.
p.s. Why the heck is SLJ in Supporting? He’s going lead, no?
Who is this guy, anyways? And who the fuck does he think he is?
https://www.instagram.com/pietroboselli/
Your boyfriend?
I keep going back and forth. I feel that these 7 are secure:
1. Spotlight – Critically Acclaimed – Decent Buzz, Important Subject
2. The Martian – Well-Liked, Uplifting, Rooting Factor
3. The Revenant – Well-Crafted, Leo’s Potential Win (Will wait on the Critics to Confirm)
4. Joy – Should Get in, JLaw Factor, and they like David O Russel
5. Carol – Critically Acclaimed, Well Crafted, Respect for Todd Haynes and Cate Blanchett, Mara
6. Brooklyn – Well-Liked, Good Critics Response, Everyone seems to keep talking about it
7. Bridge of Spies – It’s Spielberg, Well-Crafted, Tom Hanks – what’s not to like
——————————————————————-
8,9,10 is where it gets tricky.
Currently, I am leaning towards the BIG Guns:
8. Inside Out – One of the Best Pixar Movies in a While – will get Original Screenplay and Score Nods
9. Mad Max – Fury Road – One of the best Action Movies in Decades, Critically Acclaimed, Will WIN Editing amongst others – Huge Box Office
10. The Hateful Eight – It’s Tarantino, should get decent reviews, will also get Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography and maybe Best Supporting Actress
————————————————————————-
11. The Danish Girl – It feels important and It is Tom Hooper, plus it will get several Nominations, BUT the critical response has been mixed at best.
12. Steve Jobs – Critically Acclaimed – but it feels like we’ve already been there with The Social Network and the Box Office shows. Will get Adapted Screenplay and Two Acting Nods
13. Room – It just seems too small for the Academy. It will get Best Adapted Screenplay Nomination and Best Actress but that’s it, really.
Anyway, this is how I see it. Obviously, we have to get confirmation of the Hateful Eight, and obviously on The Revenant and Joy (not as worried about these two)
Expect ROOM to be in the top four and INSIDE OUT to be left out. Otherwise, I agree.
This is why I need help. What’s so special about Room? What is the larger message? I have to see it. Did the Academy respond well to it? It just feels too small. I may be wrong. I wish that Sasha or Ryan would comment on this.
Ah I see your post below. ROOM starts as a difficult-to-watch small film but ends as a grand magnificent meditation on some broad themes, and jerks tears out of your eyes justifiably, not cheaply. It takes you on a journey. I think it’s a contender for the top prize. True it’s small and hasn’t been widely seen but has the potential to be the movie that’s talked about. The “you’ve got to see this movie” movie. Kind of like Whiplash but because of its emotional power has a bigger shot at the big prize and could also have the “little movie that could” narrative.
Good enough! Thank you! I will bump it up, then. I guess between Mad Max and Inside Out, I’ll drop Inside Out for now since it’s still getting nominated anyway.
Appreciate your input!
The most underestimated film this year is “Bridge of Spies”. It’s nowhere near the top of critic or public choices but it is the quintessential Academy film. It’s an inside film, and it’s guaranteed to get lots of nominations because it has so many winners with big influence on the film, including Spielberg, Hanks, the Coen brothers and many more. This is just cheating.
Yeah it should do well with nominations. Not just because it’s an inside movie but also because it’s just so good.
FOXCATCHER failed to get a nomination for BP not because it was dark. On the contrary, its dark stylish gloominess was the only thing it had going for it, making it falsely “feel” like an Oscar movie even though it masked an entirely empty and unsubstantial center.
I’m so disappointed that Sicario isn’t getting any attention. Hope that changes!
I have an idea what will win Best Picture: CAROL
I have a question about Room. How did it play with the Academy? Do they love it? For some reason, I am not getting all this praise. I see it more as a small critical darling movie, but nothing more. Am I wrong about this? Please someone help me out? Thanks!
you’re right
Agree completely
From the look of it, it just doesn’t look like a Best Picture winner to me. It’s a small film, punching above its weight. “Room” is one of those films with a big heart driven by great acting by the whole cast. I haven’t seen it yet, but it reminds of “Precious” and like that film, I can see it win an Oscar for acting and maybe multiple acting nominations.
Sly is coming. Not sure if he could go all the way, though, but it would be nice. Superstar wins would be amazing (Leo or Damon for best Actor, Sly for Supporting, JLaw for Best Actress, Scott for Director).
I have a feeling that “Steve Jobs” is not going to get nominated for ANYthing. Its’ fizzle at the box-office dooms it. Might drag Michael Fassbender AND K.Winslet down with it. And what will replace it? “The Danish Girl” of course, and Will Smith in “Concussion.” Now helped by the horrifying news that the revered Frank Gifford died of traumatic brain injuries due to football.
And Supporting Actress is now WIDE open. Hey, even Jane Fonda could win for four minutes of screentime. And since everyone will be watching “Carol” they’ll see Sarah Paulson’s EXCELLENT truly Supporting work as Carol’s ex-lover.
Wishful thinking! It’s year of the Fass. two nominations for the Fass at the Golden Globes or BAFTA.
I’m quite confident it won’t have zero nominations. I’d bet money on it…
It would be victory for Sly just to be there and I think he will be given a nomination but is unlikely to win.
Yeah, I get Depp-in-POTC/Rourke-in-Wrestler vibe from this. Likely runner-up, picks up some big precursors but is stopped by “more important” role.