New York today put Carol front and center in a way that no other critics group could do when the NYFCC named Todd Haynes and his masterful love story Best Picture and Director of the year. Todd Haynes is one of the few who have won Picture and Director twice with the New York critics. Kathryn Bigelow is another. The difference is that when Todd Haynes was named Best Director for Far From Heaven, and Best Picture, it was not acknowledged with corresponding nominations by the Academy. Times have changed since then. The Academy has become more evolved, more “LGBTQ friendly.” It isn’t really that anyone has forced this change so much as the change has just bloomed around it. But it doesn’t hurt that Milk did so well with the Academy, of course. Either way, Haynes and the Carol team — including writer Phyllis Nagy and cinematographer Edward Lachman are having a good day. It does seem as though Carol really will finally be that movie that helps Haynes get the higher profile he so richly deserves; honestly, is there a more underrated virtuoso director out there that has been almost completely excluded from the Oscars?
As we barrel towards next weekend, when Los Angeles announces their winners, along with Boston, and then head into the Golden Globes and the SAG nominations — we’re circling closer to a consensus little by little. Each critics award is like someone in the audience shouting, “Hey, what about this?” One of the biggest boosts this morning came when Kristen Stewart’s name was announced as Best Supporting Actress for Clouds of Sils Maria. We’d all but given up on Stewart but this brings her back. The Supporting Actress category at the NYFCC is more accurate in predicting an Oscar nom than any of their other categories.
Stewart remains the only American actress to win the Cesar, which you’d think would have been enough in itself to put her forward in the conversation and to keep her there. Many months passed and sooner or later, her name faded in that conversation. The New York Film Critics have brought it back. The Supporting Actress race is still incredibly competitive. Whether Stewart can break in is still a question mark — but history tells us she will. Somehow. If Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander “go lead” it will be an easy call and Kristen Stewart will be looking at her first Oscar nomination. Clouds of Sils Maria is currently available streaming on Amazon, which should make it easier for voters to watch it, particularly with this award announcement.
Once the critics have their say — and after the big groups announce, the rest of the critics from all over the country will ring in. They will find consensus or not but not many of the smaller cities will have impact on the Oscar race. The next big event will be when the Producers Guild choose their ten, the Directors Guild choose their five. Those really are the biggest predictors and determiners, of the Best Picture race at least.
The Gurus of Gold were asked to lay down their predictions and then predict LA and New York. Some did better (Scott Feinberg) than others (me).
So far, though, the National Board of Review is offering up one scenario. The New York Film Critics then laid out another scenario that 100% ignored the National Board of Review’s position. I don’t know what LA is going to do but they might claim the Spotlight prize. It would be funny if Spotlight followed the Birdman trajectory and won the Gotham and then no other critics awards until the PGA. Honestly, I could see it shaking out that way. Second Level Chaos Theory tells us that just by predicting how a certain group will vote alters their predictions. Thus, the knowledge that Spotlight is the “frontrunner” might mean critics steer clear of it in hopes of pushing a different film that isn’t getting as much exposure.
Meanwhile, Spotlight has established a solid consensus among the pundits. A few of us stragglers aren’t so sure and it will probably take the Producers Guild to convince us. I spoke with Steve Pond yesterday and we were both scratching our heads, not knowing which movie would win or if there is a third movie that might be waiting in the wings. It’s a wide open year, no doubt about it.
And now that Kristen has been snubbed by both the SAG awards and the Golden Globes, can we please retire all this Oscar talk? She never stood a chance, the competition was way too strong this year. She was at 14 or 15th place in the overall list of potential nominees, and neither the SAG, Golden Globes or Oscar nominators were impressed by her Cesar or some good reviews.
She showed no range, nothing extraordinary in her Sils Maria performance. She didn’t transform into someone outside of herself, she didn’t have an accent or demonstrate anything different with her voice, she didn’t have a physical disability, she hardly had an arc. Her character didn’t even have a journey. She started at point at A and went all the way to point B. They don’t give awards for those kinds of performances, which makes her Cesar win even more mystifying.
Oscar voters care as much about Cesar awards as they do about Cannes awards (not at all). Stewart needs a strong campaign. After watching Clouds last night I wish she, Binoche, and the movie were in the conversation at a higher level.
Haynes has been overlooked as a director. Who knows if Oscar voters are more lgbtq friendly than in the past. If Carol and The Danish Girl get in it could signify some change.
I think PGA and DGA will go for Hateful Eight and The Revenant in a big way. They are most likely to eat up the purity of cinema narrative Tarantino and Inarritu like to talk about.
Hey Sasha, your Twitter reaction for The Hateful 8 was one of several posted on Joblo. Being an avid reader of your site, your name immediately popped out to me but also I couldn’t gauge wether you were disappointed or impressed by the film. I know there’s an embargo till the 21st but could you sum up in one word wether the film is good or a letdown?
It seems that Saoirse will get the biggest boost from this award, as I don’t think she’s been part of the conversation very much.
Try as I might, I still fail to see what anyone finds compelling from Kristen Stewart’s performances. She’s competent and natural on screen, but she plays the same thing every single time. I don’t see Oscar rewarding her Clouds performance. Let her stretch and actually show something different first.
I was always a fan of Ronan but I respect her so much for turning down that awful Elf Mary Sue role in awful Hobbit movies. That would have been such waste of talent and in the end it turned into complete embarrassment so it’s good that she dodged the bullet.
And yet she starred in that awful sci fi catastrophe, The Host. Every actor takes a pay cheque role from time to time!
Awful sci fi catastrophe was at least a challenging role on paper. She played 2 characters in one body. I can see why she was attracted to it. OTOH, Mary Sue Elf was pure trash on paper and on screen.
Well, I found Kristen Stewart’s performance compelling. Maybe not award-worthy, but certainly nomination-worthy nonetheless. What has me most excited, though, is that attention for her might also lead to attention for Juliette Binoche’s spellbinding performance, and bring her back into the conversation. At this point hoping for a nomination in such a strong year is probably asking for too much, but odder things have happened.
^Yes, absolutely! It is all about the duo and especially Binoche, who should absolutely be in the conversation.
A lot of people (here and elsewhere) are suggesting that because NYFCC gave Carol so much love that LAFCA is going to “retaliate” by not, but I want to throw one bit of caution out there for the naysayers–if you go to the LAFCA members page and look up the Metacritic pages of those critics you’ll find that A LOT of them have Carol a score of 100. They also have high scores for Spotlight, Fury Road, Room, Steve Jobs and The Assassin. I think their winner will be one of those 6.
Oh, no, they might try to resurrect Steve Jobs. Don’t waste your votes, LAFCA! Let it die!
They won’t go for Carol. They wouldn’t like to be seen like followers
and Carol probably won’t be cool enough to them. I could see them giving
it Score, Cinematography or Production Design but nothing else. The
metacritic scores are one thing, awards are another.
Why did they “follow” and award Boyhood last year after NYFCC already did?
Farachi is stanning for Creed. And he forced Arquette = Best Actress decision last year.
And what about Supporting Actor? The category is a mess. Rylance, Keaton got a huge boost from NYFCC (especially Keaton). I somehow don’t buy Stallone and I’ve seen the film. He’s solid but he has too much baggage. I can’t imagine them going for him ahead of Rylance who’s one of the great actors of our time, and Keaton who’s on a roll.
Sly strikes me as Depp-in-POTC/Rourke-in-The Wrestler situation. Hits all precursors, wins some biggies, gets Oscar nom and is stopped by a performance that’s seen as more serious or important.
From Sean Connery to Jack Palance, the category has often served as a de facto lifetime achievement award, a Thanks for money made and for being willing to step aside on behalf of younger talent. (Is this the first time Stallone hasn’t been first-billed since the 1970s?) You could make a similar case for Keaton, maybe, and I expect “Rambo vs. Batman” articles, but I give Sly the edge, partly because Keaton’s performance is understated.
You may be right. Also, perhaps winner speech tucking soured some on Batman so “lets make up for his last year snub” sentiment isn’t as strong as made out to be. Sly definitely has a better narrative (Keaton’s one is basically “cause he didn’t win last year”) and Oscars would benefit from an iconic role win. Didn’t happen since The Joker.
For Rylance, new to Hollywood, the nomination is the award, especially if BoS isn’t a BP nom, and I don’t think it will be (I’ve seen it, and I’ve seen Creed and Spotlight)
I agree about Rylance. He’s an iconic name in the theatre world but for all intents and purposes, Bridge Of Spies is his first real breakthrough film role. That’s not enough to overcome Stallone’s momentum.
I was wrong for Carol not winning NYFCC. I admit it. To me, the big news is that everybody would be forced to learn the right pronunciation of Saoirse. She could very well be our next Best Actress winner. Of course, LA won’t back her. They’ll go for Larson or Rampling now. But could it be the very first year when NBR, LAFCA and NYFCC don’t agree at all? In any of the major categories? I can’t see LA going for Carol. They’ll choose something that makes them look like the cooler bunch. Anyway, I believe that CAROL benefits from this in Adapted Screenplay. Todd Haynes does benefit, Lachman does benefit (and he deserves it, not to mention that he didn’t win an Oscar for Far From Heaven!!!!). Ronan does benefit hugely from it. The BAFTA will be hers. The question mark is the Globe. If Ronan wins the Globe, it’s over. Rylance benefits from this, Keaton benefits immensely and even though it’s crazy how they gave him lead, I could see the Oscars doing the same, especially given how empty the category is. The one odd winner is Stewart. I simply can’t see Oscar voters going for this performance and this film.
Ronan said to rhyme her first name with “inertia.”
New rule for the season: John Travolta must present all televised Best Actress awards
As long he doesn’t touch their faces like he did with Menzel the following year then I’m all on board. “And the Oscar for best actress goes to…Sa…Sir…Circus Ronan.”
I’m so happy for Todd Haynes. He deserves to be in the spotlight. When I first saw Velvet Goldmine back in the good old 90s I immediatley fell in love with the work of this man.
Keaton as Best Actor is an odd choice by the NYFC
It’s a troll choice.
Sils Maria isn’t on netflix 🙁 you got my hopes up too!!
Amazon
When I read that I jumped on my phone and burned through Netflix looking for it.
Hey Sasha- despite Blanchett’s failure to win NYFCC for Best Actress (I wonder if she placed), do you think she’s still in our top 5 for Best Actress? Or do you think Mara will cause vote splitting in the very competitive best actress field?
Sasha/Ryan, missing a blue cross next to Mark Rylance from NYFCC. 😉
I would be sad after all these years if the Academy corrected the same sex two lead category fraud and it cost Blanchett or Mara a nomination. Do it next year when I’m not so invested in these two. HAHA If Hawke and Washington and Streep and Roberts both got nods – let’s hope for Blanchett and Mara. If they both make Best Actress, that’s even better.
the difference between NYFCC coming to a split vote about it and The Academy is that NYFCC can only make one choice. If Mara and Blanchett split their vote then CLEARLY they would have nominated both given the chance to name 5. So why are people assuming that this means The Academy couldn’t nominate both? Obviously both can’t win in the same category, but both can surely be nominated.
Exactly. Assuming Larson and Ronan are locks, JLaw is near lock, Blanchett was a lock before Mara’s GG category placement in Lead and there was never consensus who will make #5, Mara could get that spot over Vikander.
Right now I’d say:
1. Larson
2. Ronan
3. Rampling
4. Mara
5. Blanchett or Tomlin
I don’t buy Lawrence until proven wrong by SAG/Globes/critics’ Choice/BAFTA.
At this point, Mara is more likely than Blanchett as a winner. But even for nominations, they’re no sure thing. The thing s that they’re aiming at the same voters. They expect #1 votes from the same voters and that’s why it’s harder to get these votes. It could be easier in a very weak field but in a lesser field it’s harder. Not impossible though.
Yes, Mara is a more likely winner than Blanchett, but Blanchett is a more likely nominee. There’s a huge difference between those statements. Mara can’t win if she isn’t nominated.
And why do you write “they split the vote” at NYFCC. They didn’t.
It’s funny because we didn’t expect it but Ronan won on the first ballot. She had the majority of votes on the first ballot, which means the support was huge.
The rumor (as mentioned by Sasha on Twitter yesterday) is that the Circle WAS split between the two in voting for Best Actress. That’s why.
I think you can forget Steve Jobs for Picture. Acting and writing nods, yes, but I think that’s as far as it will go. I think Mad Max, Inside Out, and Creed stand a better chance than Joy, Room, and The Revenant, quite frankly.
So happy for them all, but especially happy for Kristen!! She works so hard and truly deserves a shot at the oscar!!
Carol should win best cinematography at the Oscars.
No, The Revenant or The Assassin should. Carol isn’t remotely as good as either in that category.
Sicario.
I agree, but I’m still very reserved about being that matter-of-fact about it because this year has some STUNNING work. The Assassin and Sicario are both top-notch work and I have no doubt that Lubezki pulls through again in The Revenant. If all four aren’t nominated I’ll be depressed.
Before Carol, no one in history ever thought that the Holland Tunnel could look “beautiful”, let alone “romantic”.
My one thought about today is that it was extremely curious that they didn’t go for Blanchett in Lead or Mara in Supporting considering how much they liked the film. Could that hurt their chances that a clean sweep didn’t include them?
Sasha just said on Twitter she heard that Rooney and Cate cancelled each other out for NYFCC vote (as expected).
If you ask me, Harvey must campaign for Rooney in Supporting category, no matte on obvious category fraud or how many people will protest about this. It’s much more safe.
No, harvey must campaign Blanchett in supporting. Many people explained that. Mara = bigger lead than Blanchett. It’s just that Blanchett appears hungry for Lead noms and wins.
This is rather unlikely.
Lead Actress was decided in a few minutes, which means ONE ballot only.
To win on the first ballot, you need AT LEAST 50% OF THE VOTES. They didn’t have them combined. Why does somebody believe that if one of them was the sole lead, they would?
It’s odd that Kristen Stewart and Sylvester Stallone are on the right track to follow the line of Matthew McConnaghey, Penelope Cruz or Sandra Bullock of previously laughed at / continuously bashed performers that win an Oscar. But I’m happy for them. On Carol, I’m not really sure that given its subject matter and the filmmaking origins of Haynes, in queer cinema, the AMPAS would be ready to multi-award it. Right now, my money is on Spotlight and Creed.
I don’t give a flying f^^k about Carol except that I really stan for Mara to make Best Actress line-up. However, Joy stans meltdown over Joy’s total shut outs (this and NBR) are glorious. not that those snubs mean much but it’s fun to watch those annoying people look for excuses why Russell’s new movie didn’t play with NY like it was supposed. So thank you, Carol! ♥
I saw Joy tonight. It’s a fantastic movie.
Maybe new cut is better than the old one but I have no desire to revisit. DOR movies just aren’t my thing. I find them tedious. JLaw is phenomenal, tho. Should win her second for Joy.
See, I get where your concern lies, but this kind of talk about Carol that because it’s a lesbian romance, and because Haynes has queer cinema roots, it won’t get enough AMPAS love to make it BP winner really bothers me. It’s friggin’ 2015 and we should all be past this kind of talk “Oh it’s gay film and those AMPAS geezers won’t embrace it” and past those babystep tasteful cinematic treatments of gay relationships.
Christine, I sure hope you are right about the Academy not being homophobic anymore, but they sure were in 2005 back when Brokeback lost, after winning a then record number of precursors, from Golden Globes, BAFTA, LAFCA, NYFCA, DGA, PGA, WGA, BFCA, a total of about 30 Best Picture prizes, best box office (by 50%), most nominations, cultural watershed, and even places like Utah and Texas Crix gave it prizes – but not the Academy. People who were openly anti-gay like Ernest Borgnine and Tony Curtis are now dead, but its only a decade later, who knows. Again, I sure hope you are right – though not because I liked Carol (I thought it was very disappointing, I didn’t care about anyone in the film). Oh I know its sacrilege to say that on this site but so be it.
Yeah a decade’s passed indeed and a lot has changed so the majority of the voting body–straight white men aged 60+–had better keep up. I get people saying Carol is too ‘chilly’ for AMPAS members to connect with on an emotional level, but when so-called pundits and Oscar prognosticators are hesitant to include it among their BP predictions (especially with critics’ raves and solid BO despite its limited release) because they assume it won’t be embraced due specifically to its subject-matter and Haynes’ history with queer cinema, I think that kind of talk contributes to deflating any hopes & buzz the film has or might have during the race. But hopefully after NYFCC, people finally take it more seriously.