ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bridge of Spies, Written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen; DreamWorks Pictures
Sicario, Written by Taylor Sheridan; Lionsgate
Spotlight, Written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy; Open Road Films
Straight Outta Compton, Screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; Story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff; Universal Pictures
Trainwreck, Written by Amy Schumer; Universal Pictures
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Big Short, Screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay; Based on the Book by Michael Lewis; Paramount Pictures
Carol, Screenplay by Phyllis Nagy; Based on the Novel The Price of Salt by Patricia Highsmith; The Weinstein Company
The Martian, Screenplay by Drew Goddard; Based on the Novel by Andy Weir; Twentieth Century Fox
Steve Jobs, Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin; Based on the Book by Walter Isaacson; Universal Pictures
Trumbo, Written by John McNamara; Based on the Biography by Bruce Cook; Bleecker Street Media
DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
Being Canadian, Written by Robert Cohen; Candy Factory Films
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief, Written by Alex Gibney; HBO Documentary Films
Kurt Cobain: Montage of Heck, Written by Brett Morgen; HBO Documentary Films
Prophet’s Prey, Written by Amy J. Berg; Showtime Documentary Films
The Big Short for adapted screenplay. The Martian is just popcorn fluff.
I agree with you jj that the Martian and big short are the front runners in the adapted screenplay
It’s seems to be between The Martian and The Big Short for best adapted, which is kind of shocking since Big Short overutilizes tired comedy cliches with its celebrity cameos and repetitive third wall breaking.
Ha, ha, I meant breaking of the fourth wall. That sort of thing needs to be handled with true delicacy, and subtlety is not McKay’s long suit. By a long way.
The book itself was so dense. Should have made a movie on Faultlines if they wanted to make a GFC movie.
Sicario is making major moves, and I think Del Toro may get a supporting nod.
Compton is popular with SAG and the other Guilds yet some people on here think it’s a long shot for BP. Unless it gets Foxcatcher-ed, the spot is pretty much a lock.
It’s probably too much to hope AMPAS will buck the usual racism and allow more than 1 poc lead movie into BP (Beasts and Creed). Female led movies face the same bias.
I predict Sicario nomination for Oscars Best Original Screenplay
Picture-
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Best Director-
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Todd Haynes, Carol
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Best Original Screenplay-
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Best Adapted Screenplay-
The Big Short
Carol
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs
2016 People’s Choice Award Winners – Film
Movie/Action Movie: Furious 7
Actor: Channing Tatum, Magic Mike XL
Actress: Sandra Bullock, Our Brand is Crisis
Action Movie Actor: Chris Hemsworth, Avengers: Age of Ultron
Action Movie Actress: Shailene Woodley, The Divergent Series: Insurgent
Animated Movie Voice: Selena Gomez
Comedy: Pitch Perfect 2
Comedy Actress: Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Comedy Actor: Kevin Hart, Get Hard
Drama Movie: The Martian
Drama Actor: Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Drama Actress (brace yourselves): Dakota Johnson, 50 Shades of Grey (other nominees; Blake Lively, Age of Adeline, Jennifer Lopez, Boy Next Door, Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs and Rachel McAdams, Spotlight)
Family Movie: Minions (and yes, Inside Out WAS nominated)
Thriller: Taken 3
Yikes, I can’t believe enough people saw ”Our Brand Is Crisis” or ”Black Mass,” let alone voted for them.
And Depp beat Damon? The Drama Movie nominees were: ”The Age of Adaline,” ”50 Shades of Grey,” ”The Longest Ride,” ”The Martian” and ”Straight Outta Compton.” Uh-oh! No ”Spotlight”! … Finally, I love how they obviously tell the winners in advance, so they can guarantee they’ll be there to accept.
I don’t think the average person cares about “Spotlight.”
If there is anything I like from this list (or at least tolerable), its Sandra Bullock, Melissa McCarthy, Johnny Depp, Rachel McAdams, and Kate Winslet.
the winners are determined by who will show up to the telecast. just like with the VMAs.
What flop taste
Okay here are my final Oscar Predictions, as of January 6th- 2016. I’ll do one more the night before. But here are my predictions in the big races
____________________________
BEST PICTURE
1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Revenant
5. Bridge of Spies
6. The Martian
7. Carol
8. Straight Outta Compton
9. Brooklyn
10. Star Wars- The Force Awakens
It seems my predictions have become accurate regarding The Big Short- it’s gaining momentum to win the Best Picture Oscar, rightfully so. It just has a more edgy and exciting edge to it, not to mention biting humor. It’s my prediction to win Best Comedy at the Golden Globes (over The Martian, which was NOT a comedy). It will also win SAG Ensemble over Spotlight. It has the surge going for it, better actors and more likely to earn Oscar nominations it’s gonna win (eg Screenplay, Editing). I also think Star Wars will make it, IF there are 10. Without 10, it might sink. It’s buzz might have come out too fast. It broke box-office records in a matter of days so it really will depend if voters love it that much. Straight Outta Compton is really doing better then anticipated- and that’s a good thing! It’s a grittier crowd pleaser then the soft Creed is, and it’s WGA showing today indicates it has the support. I also think Carol will make it, despite my underwhelming reception towards it. I still respect it’s value in the art world. I think Brooklyn replaces Room for the movie with a strong female heroine, in a much more positive outlook.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Ridley Scott, The Martian
3. Adam McKay, The Big Short
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu, The Revenant
Look out for TRUE UPSETS in this category. Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher) last year reminds us that this is a VERY picky bunch that will undoubtably go their own direction despite any precursor or critics steering the other way. Still, I think this will be our five- with McKay replacing the doomed Haynes. Unless DGA indicates his future any different, the buzz for The Big Short is just too big to ignore. If anything, McCarthy might be bumped for the likes of Haynes, Spielberg, Abrahamsson or even F. Gary Gray.
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Steve Carell, The Big Short
I dropped Cranston (Trumbo) because I think we’re overestimating him. The performance is a split for many people, and he’s a TV actor- not film, which makes difference to the steak eaters. Damon’s movie is going to get a lot more love then people think, and that includes the performance- which will earn him the Globe on Sunday. I think Carell is our wildcard. His competition includes Will Smith, Johnny Depp, Ian McKellen and Michael B. Jordan- but I think this is where the movie makes the difference vs. just the performance. Big Short is going to sweep Carell up with it because it’s peaking at just the right time. The other guys are in movies that aren’t doing as well. Plus, it helps that Carell is EXCELLENT and deserves this slot so much more then last time. He’s very good- and funny!
BEST ACTRESS
1. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
2. Brie Larson, Room
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
5. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
Three ladies are locked and loaded and two slots are open. I think Rampling gave the best performance of the year, and it’s a shame the guilds forgot. But LA and National Society did NOT, and neither will BAFTA (I hope). She’s in. With one slot left I have gone back and forth trying to decide whether Jennifer Lawrence is indeed going to take it for Joy. I think the underperformance of the movie and the fact that JLaw isn’t that good (okay is more like it), tells me instead voters will sway towards SAG nominee Helen Mirren, who also has the chance to get in for supporting in Trumbo. But I believe the subject matter of Woman in Gold, plus the better performance from Mirren, earns her a slot here. I don’t think Sarah Silverman, Maggie Smith or Lily Tomlin are cutting it. And Alicia Vikander – while deserving for The Danish Girl in lead- will find solace in the fact that if she gets in for Supporting, she might just win the whole damn thing.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
3. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
4. Christian Bale, The Big Short
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
The most wide open races are indeed the supporting fields this year. So I probably am going to end up with a lot of egg on my face- but so be it. Them the cards I see happening. Rylance and Stallone seem safe, though Stallone might be literally Rocky because his movie won’t do well anywhere else. Elba seems safe, but could older voters frown with the Netflix dispute? Bale is immensely deserving of this, and he’s someone known to get out of nowhere nods (eg American Hustle). Finally, my true wildcard is BFCA nominee Tom Hardy, who is excellent – but also will ride the coat-tails of Leo’s Oscar win by being the “side man” that proves there’s enough passion behind the vehicle. DiCaprio has had two of his past costars also earn this distinction: Jonah Hill in Wolf of Wall Street, and Djimon Hounsou in Blood Diamond. Both got in for supporting when they were somewhat dark horses. Michael Shannon in 99 Homes would be my sixth placer. Tremblay, if he ends up anywhere- would be a Leading nominee, not supporting. Watch out for Mark Ruffalo- he also could pop up for Spotlight because that movie is in dire need of support- and its’s the showiest role in the movie.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
2. Rooney Mara, Carol
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
5. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
I always go out on a limb for at least one slot- sometimes paying off (Marion Cotillard/Bradley Cooper last year) – and sometimes not (I thought Carell would make it in supporting last year for Foxcatcher, not lead). This category is a mess because two ladies- Mara and Vikander- may wind up in the lead for the same movie. But I think voters proved they can sometimes be misguided, like when Roberts got in for supporting in August: Osage County. So I think they show up here, easily making the category more juicy. Who does that leave? Leigh of course is being accused of scenery-chewing, but we forget that voters LOVE that! In. Winslet was very convincing, and solid in Steve Jobs- but she could also end up MIA simply due to the fact that no one cares about the movie anymore. And last- I predict Stewart will make it in on her strong critic wins, and the fact that this category is so weak. Rachel McAdams is, of course, probably taking that spot but she is so undeserving of it. She did virtually nothing in Spotlight to deserve this acclaim other then appear on the poster. Jane Fonda, too, is too brief in Youth and I doubt can make it in regardless of her star power.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Spotlight
2. Bridge of Spies
3. Straight Outta Compton
4. Hateful Eight
5. Ex Machina
Writing categories are also very tricky to predict. So don’t be startled to see some out of nowhere inclusions. I hope Inside Out makes it over Ex Machina, but it seems to have lost all buzz.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Big Short
2. The Martian
3. Steve Jobs
4. Room
5. Carol
More movies in contention here it seems, so I’m going based on gut feeling (Room especially seems to keep coming to my brain as a must here) and of course, luck.
Good analysis. Although I think Martian, Room, or Carol could get displaced by Brooklyn in Adapted Screenplay and any one of the Original Screenplay nominees that is not Spotlight could be dropped in favor of Inside Out.
The thing about the guild awards is that it’s hard to know who is or is not eligible. Does someone have to be a member of the guild? Emma Donoghue probably isn’t because this is her first screenplay and she’s first and foremost a novelist, not to mention she’s Canadian. I am surprised that Inside Out wasn’t nominated, though, although perhaps one of the writers wasn’t eligible, either (maybe Meg Lefauve?)
Can we just reiterate how crazy it is that we’re a week away from Oscar nominations and its not all that clear whose winning any of the major categories? Writing I suppose might be kind of sewn up as Big Short and Spotlight winning seems likely. But all the acting and Picture/Director seems very unclear considering how late in the race it is.
I mean, we kind of have an idea with the lead categories. Probably Leo but Cranston or whomever could swoop in and overtake and probably Larson for Actress but Ronan or whomever could overtake her there…
Supporting Actor it totally depends on who gets nominated. Supporting Actress depends on if Mara/Vikander get nominated in lead or supporting for their prestige pictures.
And Picture/Director can still go in various directions…
Are we actually going to have a year where there’s legit suspense when one or more of the major categories gets announced?
Can anyone recall a recent year like this, where all the major (and even ”minor”) categories are in such flux? It’s exciting AND nerve-racking. I can’t even imagine how stressful it must be for the nominees.
Maybe the 1995-96 year with Braveheart? Scott is probably praying that The Martian does not fall for the Apollo 13 curse.
the Return of the King year
I agree with you. This year has me stumped. I’m not sure about any category really, except perhaps Best Foreign Film and Best Animated Film. I think “Son of Saul” and “Inside Out” have these two Oscars sewn up. The major categories? I have an “inkling” who “may” win. But as Sasha has posted many times in her essays over the last couple months, anything can happen. This year;s awards season has (surprisingly and blessedly) turned out to be very competitive and exciting to watch. I do think SAG (and not the Golden Globes), however, will give us a better indication of how the acting awards will pan out. Then again, to turn a phrase, “anything can happen”. FINALLY, an Oscar race with some SUSPENSE in it! Reminds me of the old days.
If Golden Globes come out with unsuspecting winners at Picture/Acting, then I’ll deem it a crazy year. Right now, I still feel like it’s all pretty obvious, except for a few categories.
Nah… Once the GGs, BFCA, SAG, etc., announce winners, and the same people start winning over and over, it’ll be the same as every year…
That is unless those precursors go in different directions.
I stand by my prediction Spotlight will end up between 5-7 nominations (including Editing), but I’m starting to feel nervous about it ending up with only three. Does anybody know when the last time a film won Best Picture Oscar from only four nominations or less?
They usually don’t, though…
4 or less nominations haven’t won BP for decades, I’m pretty sure. But if Spotlight gets 4 or less but still wins PGA + SAG + DGA, it’ll still win… The number of nominations is less important than whatever wins PGA + SAG, in particular, especially this year.
The noms announced today convince me Compton and Sicario’s BP chances are for real. And I’m not ready to write Carol off, despite the PGA snub. Right now this looks like the BP list to me, in descending order of probability:
Spotlight
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Sicario
Straight Out of Compton
Competing for a tenth slot or ousting one of the above: Brooklyn, Room, Trumbo, Ex Machina
You;re missing Star Wars you dense dolt. Sicario? That’s a laugh. Ex Machina??? It couldn’t even get into the PGA. The ballots for these awards shows went out before FA was a big hit. It will make the final cut Oscar morning. Just wait and see!
*That’s WGA for EX Machina.
“you dense dolt”? Was that really necessary? Do you even know how to be civil?
I know how to be civil- dense dolt is used often during film commentary, especially in advanced classes. I’m older- 50s- and too poor to take film classes. But my friend let me come along to an open discussion panel once, and we all watched the movie and then talked about it afterwards. Of course, that film was not The Revenant- the only movie I saw this year in theaters – and it was a big question mark!
I happen to be a film professor and can assure you I have never called anyone a dense dolt in my classes. There is plenty of room for disagreement about what the various precursors mean for the BP noms–especially this year!–but there’s no reason for you to engage in name-calling just because we have come to different conclusions about the likelihood of Sicario, Ex Machina, or TFA being nominated.
My apologies, sorry about that.
Apology accepted.
No nomination in Original Screenplay for Ex Machina?
But there IS an Original Screenplay nomination for Trainwreck?
Excuse me while I get my smelling salts …
Ex Machina was ineligible.
Oh god, of course – it’s the ‘American’ Guild……
Facepalm
How was it ineligible? It was written in 2015 for the screen. That’s an excuse for “We just don’t like your movie.” How in fact was it not eligible? Unless it made it to Netflix before being on the big screen.
The WGA is a guild, a union to which screenwriters belong. It only considers scripts written by guild members. Alex Garland isn’t a WGA member so he was ineligible.
Just got back from a psychic’s meeting in Ohio. After a quick bite at a mom and pop roast beef sandwich shop, my best Midwest friend Judy (also a psychic) had some news for me to share with you :
“The Oscar voters hate Spotlight. Many found it numbing to sit through. It won’t get anything but a Screenplay nod.”
“You mean it’s getting snubbed in Best Picture??” I gasped audibley.
“Oh yeah it’s not even close. My readings say its 10th place at best.”
Well there you have it folks. Spotlight will get a big fat zero Oscar morning.
They only made roast beef sandwiches?
Carol is back in business! Sicario and SOOC seem like they are going to have a fruitful morning next week, huh? And I am disappointed, because this was Joy’s last chance to allow me, one of its six fans, hope that the Academy may take to it. Oh well.
Kind of surprised that “Trainwreck:” – Amy Schumer was listed (over Quentin Tarantino – “The Hateful Eight”
And Emily Donoghue’s omission for “Room”? ? ? Was she not eligible? I’d bet not.
There must be some inside job going on in writers guild association. No inside out, the hateful eight, but trainwreck. Ugh…
I like the nominations overall except for Trumbo and Trainwreck, the latter of which was so overrated. It’s my least favorite of the five comedies up for the Globe. Hopefully, Trumbo just benefited from Room and Brooklyn being ineligible.
Just one more reason to root for Room and Brooklyn! No Trumbo. Help keep the Academy from embarrassing itself.
Believe it or not, I agree with you on ”Trumbo.” But my issues with that quasi-TV movie is not that it’s ”lackluster” or that Cranston is hammy; it’s that it’s a self-congratulatory cartoon portrait of Trumbo that’s pitched at the intellectual level of a ”Transformers” movie. As some historians have pointed out, Trumbo was ”an apologist for the 1930s Stalinist purges, secret police and state control in the Soviet Union.” Michael Bernick in the Nation notes that Trumbo also was ”an initial critic of Great Britain’s opposition to Hitler’s Germany and urged America to stay out of the war.” Bernick adds: ”You wouldn’t know it from the movie, but there were many people on the left [including Eleanor Roosevelt] who opposed Trumbo and the Communist Party.” But, hey, it’s screenwriters voting for a whitewashed movie about a screenwriter giving the finger to the studios, so they love it. ”Trumbo” is bad filmmaking and bad history. Sadly, Hollywood is falling for it.
Good grief, lay off the right wing politics. The story of Trumbo is the story of abuse of power by the American right wing. The problem with the movie it that it doesn’t do the topic justice because it’s awkward and over the top.
I’m actually progressive … and I quoted the Nation, a liberal publication. ”Trumbo” ”doesn’t do the topic justice because it’s awkward and over the top” and simplistic.
This is the best list for movies ever. I’ve seen 6 of the nominated films.
Room and Brooklyn were ineligible and they still rightly passed on Revenant. Thank God, there’ll be no adapted screenplay nod for the misery porn.
I found this omission to be the most surprising, I guess. Only because it’s been getting so much attention. There have been a lot of people on this site who definitely do not like it. I can understand why, I guess. Would that hurt Di Caprio’s chances in the best actor category? Ummm.
Whatever! Trainwreck was one of the best movies of the year. I hope (and predict) it gets an Oscar nomination.
Amy Schumer’s name has power. And the new BFFs Jennifer and Amy nominated in the same year? Who wouldn’t watch that?
Last movie to win BP without even a script nomination was what again?
Titanic. The one that came closest since then but didn’t win BP was probably Gravity.
And Titanic certainly deserved its omission from this category. The screenplay was terrible. I still can’t rewatch this movie as I just cringe in certain parts. LA Confidential is the movie that will stand the test of time.
I’ll have to humbly disagree. How do you make a mega-hit out of the Titanic story when everyone knows the ship is gonna sink and tons of passengers will drown? Sounds like a bummer, right? To Cameron’s credit, he came up with a love story between Jack and Rose that won over audiences and gave them a reason to care about this historic disaster. All the hydraulic or special effects didn’t mean anything if you didn’t have an emotional stake in whether Jack or Rose survived. ”Titanic’s” fortunes rose … or sank because of the romance.
I agree that LA Confidential had the better script (maybe slightly acting), but I strongly more agree that Titanic had the “overall” better presentation. He brought back to the public conscious one of the greatest maritime peacetime disasters (I’m sure lots of people knew about Titanic, but the profile is greater than ever thanks to the film). Sure we’ve seen many love films, but trying adding action and other elements without creating a mess.
I loved ”L.A. Confidential,” but I’d be hard-pressed to recall a single scene or line of dialogue from it. But for good or bad, I still remember Jack crowing ”I’m king of the world,” or Jack and Rose’s ”flying” scene on the ship, or ”Titanic’s” moving closing sequence.
“Rollo Tomassi” is legendary… There are others. L.A. Confidential also stands the test of time, like Titanic. Both can be great, you know… 🙂 And I happen to think they are. But I prefer Titanic, if I have to pick.
Ed Exley: Why did you become a cop?
Jack Vincennes: I don’t remember.
Among many wonderful scenes in L.A. Confidential this particular one always hit me the hardest. Simply because that for a small moment you get a glimpse of Vincennes’ human side. A character who’s whole image is a fasade and an act finally has a human moment. A simple sentence like “I don’t remember” on top of Spacey’s brilliant delivery speaks volumes of the character’s past and the frailty of his image-shield.
And this is just one scene. I’m not mentioning all the beautiful twists and turns of the story, the actuall feel of L.A. in the fifties, that chandleresque climate you can almost smell in every frame of the picture, not to mention one of the best (and most underrated) shoot-outs in cinema history. And you compare that to Titanic? People, apples and orangutans.
There are plenty scenes and aspects of Titanic that, to me and others, are just as iconic…
Well said! He could have written better lines, but the story itself was good, I agree.
WGA mean squat for Oscars. It’s the least influential guild. Don’t care. When they’ll change their silly rules they will matter. Until then they don’t.
True, but Revenant and Max are going to be nicked by having no script nod even if they have a fistful of tech nods.
Nobody expected a nom for MM, but Revenant has been jonesing for it.
Neither Revenant nor Mad Max were supposed to be nominated for screenplay. To be nominated a screenplay must contain the right amount of dialogue, it’s pretty much a rule. They are really basic in their reasoning.
You mean Revenant classic lines like “Othma meh ne betha muf” doesn’t count as dialogue?
Revenant was eligible. It was passed over.
I didn’t say the opposite.
No, you just tried to imply it.
There are explicit rules and implicit rules.
Adapted Screenplay is all right this year (except maybe for Trumbo, but that’s not all that bad), but Original…woof. I thought the writing was the weakest part of Sicario and SOC, and Spotlight I’m very open about not loving. Trainwreck I haven’t seen, but I’m happy for Amy Schumer. Bridge of Spies is the only script I’m out-and-out in favor of, though.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SICARIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I enjoyed Trainwreck as a popcorn movie but, for God’s sake, a writer’s guild nomination??????!!!!!!!! Maybe the MTV Movie awards, but …
And for a movie whose ultimate message essentially undermines what Amy Schumer’s entire career has been about!!!!????
The nomination is clearly just about honouring Schumer (whom I love), because she is the current comedy IT girl, and not about writing quality.
Trainwreck is maybe the least-essential white people-problems movie ever made. It’s funny, sure, but good lord, there is virtually nothing at stake for any of it. I sort of fail to see why it was so popular, beyond the fact that Amy Schumer was 2015’s It-Girl.
Amy Schumer was not even good in it.. I really do not get this.
Trumbo wouldn’t be on here if Room and Brooklyn were eligible. Don’t get your panties in a bunch. 🙂
I second this. Trumbo was not my jam at all.
Thrilled to see Trumbo make the cut. The hatred for this movie among those commenting on this site is head-scratching; one would think it was a Transformers sequel, given all the animosity. Glad to see some of the guilds and critics’ groups recognizing its excellence.
Preach
When you nominate things like Trumbo you give a vast territory for fanboys to trash you. Happened with The Reader and Frost/Nixon. Will happen again this year. I don’t think Star Wars would be in my BP lineup. But it is definitely a better film than quite a few that are scoring lots of nominations across all this awards.
The consensus is that Trumbo is lackluster – save for the lead performance – which might win the Oscar. But I’m happy for the nomination if only because the movie is ABOUT a Hollywood screenwriter. I’ll bet a lot of the voters checked it off for that very reason!
The problem with the latest Star Wars from an artistic perspective is that it was already made – in the seventies.
Straight Outta Compton and Bridge of Spies BP nominees and not Inside Out is just pathetic. That says a lot about the future of the film industry…
Don’t worry about it, it was ineligible here, I think it will definitely be there at Oscars
I know animated are ineligible. It’s the strenght of this average films that is just consolidating Inside Out’s snub next week.
To reiterate, THE REVENANT and JOY were eligible but missed the cut. Anything else you’re thinking of was probably ineligible.
It’s really sad to see everyone who hasn’t read up on these things totally overreacting.
I would have read about it, had I known where to look.
Snub: Inside oUT
“STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON now has top nods from WGA, PGA, and SAG. Only
recent movie to get all 3 but still miss Best Picture is BRIDESMAIDS.”
Its getting in 🙁 its not bad movie but cmon…so many films were better this year
I would actually say it was a bad movie. Well acted and with a certain directorial flair, but poorly paced and badly constructed. While in general, I’m excited for better of representations of diversity in film and film awards, I’d rather have seen Dope or Tangerine take its spot here. The Compton screenplay was a mess.
You’re just saying that so you can appear to be “unique” and “rebellious”. No one’s heard of Dope or Tangerine. I’m sure you wouldn’t be saying this at all had Compton somehow missed the boat today. It didn’t – so get over it. It made it into the WGA when all the pundits FAILED to predict it! It made it into SAG ensemble when NO one else decided to think outside the box. If you’re going to trash a movie, go trash predictable garbage like Spotlight and The Revenant, and leave SOC alone. Seriously it’s getting those Oscar nods whether you like it or not. But stop with your whining.
So what else is it getting nominated for. Screenplay, based on this nom with 1000 other things ineligible? I don’t think so… So what else?
No surprises here …
Still thrilled to see Sicario appear again.
And Carol.
I’m assuming The Revenant missing out isn’t that surprising!?! It’s the only movie left for me to see.
Not a surprise. ”The Revenant” hadn’t gotten any screenplay nominations from critics’ groups or won any precursors. Plus, writers love words, and DiCaprio has very little dialogue in the picture. It’s said that ”actions speak louder than words,” but action movies rarely get noticed, let alone win, screenplay prizes.
Agree. We need more WALL-E-like screenplay nods.
Thanks!!
Mad Max has terrible dialogue, but incredible storytelling momentum, so I’m torn on that one. Revenant is not even close to being one of the 10 best adapted screenplays this year (I have it ranked 13th), so I have ZERO problem with that one missing. Ex Machina wasn’t eligible, nor was Anomalisa, The Danish Girl, Hateful Eight, Brooklyn or Room. Congrats to Carol, Steve Jobs, Sicario and Trainwreck.
Mad Max was not eligible i think.
You are correct. Didn’t realize that
I loved Mad Max’s dialogue! “I Live I Die I Live Again!”
I kind of like it too, to be honest. Not sure it’s award-worthy, but it works.
Everyone of the catchphrases were gold.
You will arrive at the gates of Valhalla, shiny and chrome!
Shiny and Chrome!!
My favorites are when hard’s voice completely changed
“chain”
“bolt cutters”
“why’d you leave?”
“maybe that way we can both get some kind of redemption”.
For that alone this movie should not be nominated for any of the top prizes.
Weren’t you just shitting on Mad Max?
Edit: I fail at reading basic English.
I still am, hence the sarcasm in my post, hardy’s accent is all over the place, it was a terrible performance hence why all the talk is about theron.
Thankfully he doesn’t do too much and looks very pretty doing it.
Couldn’t buy that either, max wouldn’t look like a GQ model he’d have a face like a bag of arseholes after all the action he’s seen, in fact he’d probably look as bad as gibson does now.
No one could stan for the movie with Gibson in it so good riddance.
Why not?
lol
Not really an answer, what’s wrong with gibson apart from the fact he was caught being a scumbag on tape?
lol
Lot’s of love to you to milli
Or Theron was just better.
Nope, the “now i drive a war rig”, dialog scene was laughably bad, it’s just hardy’s heart wasn’t in this film. Have you seen the cinematographer for the film give a lecture in which he says hardy was a dick who wouldn’t even show up to set on time?
Hardy is a dick on set. Every scene with Theron was gold.
I’d have to disagree and i think her character and the film in general is extremely patronizing to women.
You have mentioned that a lot. Why bother repeating?
Because it bares repeating, the movie has everybody hoodwinked. You know what would have made this movie better? if max was cut out of it and it was solely about furiosa’s character.
You have a right to your wrong opinion.
Okay hitler, quite clever that give somebody the illusion of freedom but they still have to comply to your mindset
Prepare to here the name Mad Max for the next 2 months over and over again.
hear*
Mediocre!
It is more bad news for The Revenant than Mad Max because Mad Max wasn’t eligible.
No Hateful Eight? Why?
Ineligible. If QT cared, he would have joined by now. It’s never affected his ability to win a screenwriting Oscar anyway.
The screenplay of Sicario is the weakest thing about it – the climax happens completely independent of the main character (Blunt). I’m surprised at how well this movie is doing with the guilds. For me it’s a distant 4th behind Villeneuve’s Incendies, Prisoners, and Enemy.
“the climax happens completely independent of the main character (Blunt).”
Isn’t that, like, the point of the movie… that she was always a pawn, always in the dark, always a spectator to much bigger and more sinister things going on?
Yes but it’s still poor craft. A more satisfying and sound way of dramatizing that idea exists.
If you say so…
Well, yes I do…I hope we can all share comments and ideas here without snark. Perhaps not.
What was I supposed to say? “Sure, if you say there is, then there must be. I require no further proof, because you are the ultimate authority on this – for some reason.” Is that what I should have said? I don’t see how the only possible correct answer to your post – that doesn’t invite a drawn out discussion where nobody can prove they’re right or wrong – can be considered snark. Maybe you have an alternative answer in mind, that I could have given in my position (and, please, no suggestions: just formulate a complete, adequate response that doesn’t launch us into the kind of discussion I mentioned above).
If the response is going to be the rude and borderline juvenile “If you say so…”, I’m not sure why anything needs to be said at all. My response to your comment was to suggest that yes, that may be the point of the film, but the execution (in my opinion, and let’s take it for granted that everything one says here is their own opinion, no need to qualify) is poor. No one needs to be proven right or wrong.
It’s not my job to be prescriptive and rewrite the film, but if you’re really interested – I will say, for example, that in Chinatown Jack Nicholson’s character fails in much the same way Emily Blunt’s character does, is basically rendered impotent to stop the powerful forces at work around (and above) him, but has agency and is effective (and bears witness) to the climactic event. This for me is an example of a movie that tries to tell a similar story but does so far better and with greater skill.
“in Chinatown Jack Nicholson’s character fails in much the same way Emily Blunt’s character does, is basically rendered impotent to stop the powerful forces at work around (and above) him, but has agency and is effective (and bears witness) to the climactic event.”
But WHY is that better? That’s the part you haven’t explained. I was hoping to avoid this, because I honestly believe the reason is purely subjective, in which case it’s not that important to me, but, fine, if we MUST go into it, I’ll allow you to try and persuade me otherwise, if you care about it enough.
I’m sorry if you think my earlier response was rude. I didn’t intend that for a second. For that reason, I can’t apologize (I have no problem doing that when I think I’ve been wrong, and many people here can attest to it) – because, in my opinion, you should have asked for clarifications, if you weren’t sure you were right about that. If you thought you were sure, they you were just wrong. I’ve given you all of the reasons why I replied the way I did. You can choose to believe me or not. Not much more I can do than tell the truth…
I’m not interested in persuading you of anything (has nothing to do with right or wrong, words you keep using) but rather exchanging ideas. Mine are that the last act of the film fails the structure it has set up — one with a strong, active protagonist who has a goal and then suddenly goes absent for the biggest plot turn in the film. That’s a let-down for me, and dulled the impact of the story. If it’s all subjective for you, and there’s no way to discuss the merits of structure and writing, then we don’t have anything to discuss, I suppose.
Well, the thing is, I thought the idea was that she was NEVER a strong, active protagonist – she just thought she was, before she got to the bottom of the whole thing.
I agree she thinks she’s stronger and worldlier than she is, but her character is strong and active in the sense that her experience of the story is what is driving the narrative for 3/4 of the movie. Then it’s handed over to someone else, and we start to see it through a completely different person’s lens.
That may have worked for you, but it didn’t for me.
Which I got from the beginning, and which is why I said it was likely a subjective thing. 🙂 Told you this discussion was kind of pointless. I’m glad we’ve at least figured out each other’s intentions, though. I repeat, I never meant to be rude in any way. I guess I might be using “if you say so” slightly wrong at times… (English isn’t my native language.) I wasn’t aware its connotations were quite so negative.
For me it wasn’t pointless at all. I always enjoy being challenged on my ideas and forced to articulate them.
I admit, I’m not like that, in that I only enjoy it when there’s a clear end result to be reached, a clear, unique “correct” conclusion to be drawn. I don’t enjoy long debates on things that are pretty much just a matter of one’s interpretation. As long as I know my interpretation is valid, I’m happy with that.
But our discussion wasn’t that long, in the end, so I don’t mind it. 🙂
I remember having the same issues with the movie and the screenplay. How are they just going to switch perspective near the end? That was just lazily written.
The main character is the Sicario. I mean it’s right there in the title. I mean it’s the whole title. SPOILERS Right when he shoots her you should realize you’ve been hoodwinked. The movie is about him. He’s the main character. They flipped ya. Flipped ya for real.
Bad news for Fury Road… I don’t care that it was expected. You need this nomination to win BP. (Unless, of course, it was ineligible.)
It wasn’t eligible. And it won’t be nominated for Oscar even though it is eligible there.
Fury Road is one of the best, cleanest screenplays for a film of its kind in many, many years. And one of the best overall this year. I worry there are too many action sequences and not enough dialogue for its Oscar chances.
Have you read it? The film is the work of genius storyboarding, choreographing, lensing, stunt work, practical effects, musical composition, and direction. None of these are the work of a screenwriter.
I haven’t read it, but films aren’t meant to be read, they’re meant to be watched. There are many films in which you could assign just as much (or more) credit to the director for an actor’s performance. The final effect is what matters, and in the case of this film, the story is clear, concise and powerful.
I agree with you.
My friend it wasn’t eligible, just like Room and Brooklyn. The Artist didn’t get a nomination here either. And Titanic won Best Picture without a Screenplay nomination.
But Titanic had a WGA nomination.
So Fury Road was ineligible – OK. I guess it still has a theoretical shot of getting in with the Oscars. It needs to, though…
Last year everyone said Birdman couldn’t win Best Picture because it didn’t get an editing nomination. I guess, you never know.
I didn’t. Not after the guilds spoke. Because there were (by the end) more important stats working against all of the others, including Boyhood.
As I recall, everything was working in favor of Boyhood. Boyhood got in everywhere just like The Big Short, and probably Spotlight. Boyhood was the favorite didn’t miss one nomination and then it lost.
Nope, incorrect. Boyhood had a stat working against it that had no exceptions: no movie had won BP without winning either the PGA, SAG, DGA or WGA (AT LEAST since all had existed together, since 1995). The editing stat had several exceptions in the past, albeit a long time ago.
Titanic got in at WGA but then missed at the Oscars, but still manage to win Best Picture.
There are exceptions to any rule. And Titanic had a SAG Ensemble nomination, of course.
But, anyway, nothing has won without both WGA AND Oscar screenplay nominations (as long as the number of nominees and categories has corresponded).
You don’t need a WGA nomination to win Best Picture. Django Unchained won Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars and wasn’t even nominated here.
But did it win Best Picture?
Just research what Laila said and it is true, Titanic won Best Picture without a Screenplay nomination.
BUT IT HAD A WGA NOMINATION. Did I not just say that below?
Does MMFR even have a screenplay?
It should, if it’s aspiring to win BP…
If it wasn’t for 12 years a Slave promoting the fact that they were going to be the first black film to win Best Picture, Gravity would have won and that didn’t get a screenplay nomination.
And if Lupita did not rise exceptionally and Brad Pitt was one of its producers.
That race was so close, remember it was a tie at PGA with the preferential ballots and everything. 12 years a Slave won out of pity.
Just like at the Globes, BAFTAs, Critics Choice… That’s a lot of pity!
Really – you’re gonna throw assumptions into a facts and precedent-based discussion?
I highly doubt they made this movie with Oscar ambition. People are mentioning it now so they are just rolling with it.
Of course, I agree.
That’s when you know a film is pure greatness, when they create something great without thinking about the awards.
No
It has a wonderful screenplay
It had a comic book like screenplay.. sorry graphic novel like.
Edit: So it was ineligible… OK. By the way, how do so many of you guys find out beforehand what’s eligible and what isn’t?
Birdman didn’t get a nomination at WGA and won Best Picture.
Ineligible. Same as 12 Years a Slave and the other recent ones you might think weren’t nominated. I researched this last year.
There was no way Fury Road was going to be nominated and will also not be nominated in Oscars.
Yeah, I think so too.
This is asking too much from the movie.. it has a too unusual script.
Yeah, if we’re demanding it get in for screenplay along with all the other tech noms it will deservedly get, it’s going to end up nominated in practically every category except the acting (and who knows, maybe Theron will show up). Whether it wins or not, it’s still likely to be the movie with the most noms. Let’s leave something for all the other movies…
Its going to turn into American Hustle. All noms no wins.
It was ineligible. But even then, I doubt it would score an Oscar nomination there.
Is BROOKLYN ineligible or what? These have a couple of very wack selections.
Ineligible.
Stiff competition in Adapted there.
Sicario: PGA, ACE, ASC, WGA, ADG. I’m soooooo glad for this resurge, very well deserved! I think at this point is pretty reasonable to BP nom and who knows, maybe Del Toro can surprise 😉
If Deakins finds a way to get a win over Seale and Lubezski, man, I would love that. I just want to hear his Oscar speech.
Wait when did ASC annouce? Link?
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/01/06/american-society-of-cinematographers-announces-nominees/
Thanks. Wow Kaminski instead of Richardson. Wow. Oscar might switch but both are deserving. Strong field.
BoS is not missing that BP nom, i guess. At least it’s deserving of it unlike War Horse or Lincoln…
I like both of those way more…
Sicario!
for oscar (adapted)
1. “The Big Short” – Adam McKay
2. “Room” – Emma Donoghue
3. “Brooklyn” – Nick Hornby
4. “Steve Jobs” – Aaron Sorkin
5. “The Martian” – Drew Godard
—
6. “Carol” – Phyllis Nagy”
7. “Anomalisa” – Charlie Kaufman
8. “Trumbo” – John McNamara
I think so too. Maybe Jobs is higher than Brooklyn.
I think you’re right, but I would really, really love for Carol to take Steve Jobs’ spot. If it was a stage play, I could have forgiven the ways Sorkin sandwiched events into the three days the script presented us with, but since he wasn’t constrained by having to keep to a static set, the structure of it made it all feel hamfisted and bizarrely unrealistic to me. I admire Sorkin more often than not, but to me, this was one of his weakest efforts to date (alongside his play The Farnsworth Invention which, oddly, had a script that would have been much better suited to a cinematic treatment).
for oscar (original) i have
1. “Spotlight” – Tom McCarthy
2. “Inside Out” – Josh Cooley, Pete Docter
3. “The Hateful Eight” – Quentin Tarantino
4. “Bridge of Spies” – The Coens, Matt Charman
5. “Ex Machina” – Alex Garland
—
6. “Straight Outta Compton” – Jonathan Herman
7. “Trainwreck” – Amy Schumer
Having not yet seen Sicario, I still think it’s 5 at best and 7 at worst. Schumer isn’t happening. While Ex Machina would be a prestigious choice, I’m not convinced they’ll appreciate the actual writing.
I loved Ex Machina’s screenplay – I would definitely nominate it.
Even with all the films that were ineligible, these still look pretty reasonable. Trim Trumbo and Trainwreck and those could be Oscar noms.
Trainwreck could be this year’s Bridesmaids (minus the acting nomination).
Carol and Spotlight for the win
More like Spotlight and Big Short (or Steve Jobs).
no surprises there
Ugh. Trainwreck was and is a piece of shit. Hope Inside Out knocks it out for the Oscar nominations
Inside Out is lock, i think its #2
Trainwreck has a good chance to get in. I think you are looking at Compton falling by the wayside for sure.
Compton has SAG-PGA-WGA. It ain’t going anywhere.
In screenplay? Yes, it will. It will not be nominated. Once Ex Machina, Inside Out, Hateful Eight and others become eligible, its nomination goes bye bye.
So did Bridesmaids. So did My Big Fat Greek Wedding… And the former, at least, had decent chances at getting other nominations. Compton isn’t getting into screenplay, when all of the stuff not eligible here is back in contention at the Oscars.
Eww..Not that overhyped shitbag.
That would be ok if Ex Machina takes its place. I liked SOC well enough but an award-worthy screenplay? Uh uh.
I think I need to re-evaluate Sicario’s place in this. I enjoyed it, but found I had immediately forgotten it almost completely. Now it’s turning up in every guild nomination list.
It’s only here because they desperately had to find something to replace Inside Out, The Hateful Eight, and Ex Machina.
As expected given the various ineligibilities, except I pegged Revenant as beating Trumbo. Trumbo’s script was honestly mediocre given the subject matter, so it shows how far Revenant is from making a dent in this category.
Frankly, Trumbo is garbage. Might as well have nominated the screenplay to the remake to Poltergeist.
As with any film that features little dialogue, most people won’t give the screenplay a chance at awards time unless it’s a front-runner (like The Artist, which never had a shot at winning the Oscar for its screenplay anyway).
Yes. I think Inarritu gets a director nomination though.
No Joy, no Revenant. To save people time of figuring out what was eligible but missed the cut.
Probably about as good as they’re going to be providing that the best films and screenplays were ineligible (Brooklyn, Inside Out, Mad Max, Hateful Eight, several others….).
Very thrilled to see Amy Schumer make the cut for a rich and interesting comedic script.
I AM ON THE ROAD TO RECOVERY
It fucking made it. The dumbasses in the WGA grew some brains for once and nominated it. Thank actual fuck.
Chill, Paddy! I think Carol is in for BP – the key is that it got 9 BFCA nominations. There are very few precedents of a movie getting that many and not getting in. (I wish I could count exactly, but I can’t find the appropriate resources to do so. I checked the last 5-6 years, with the expanded field, and there’s just one exception I could find, the critically panned Nine, which I don’t think is the same thing.)
Paddy, I’m hoping (although I don’t want to get my hopes up) that Carol hits the Oscars the same way that In the Bedroom did. A critical hit that somehow kept missing out on guild nominations, but got still got in. Here’s hoping.
And then some. It needs, and deserves, major tech love.
It does. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that it’s not likely to win, but maybe Haynes is at that point in his career where they can no longer ignore him. I mean, Wes Anderson got his first director nomination last year, and he couldn’t get arrested for over a decade prior. That said (I know this is a dead horse), in a just world, The Assassin would get even more tech love. 🙁
Oh it has basically no hope now. Not unless every other major contender takes some kind of outrageous tumble. But I think the Academy only embraced Wes Anderson last year because, for the first time, they properly liked his film. I don’t think they give a shit about Todd Haynes, and making a film about gay women (as opposed to Anderson’s sexless, mostly male-centric films) isn’t gonna help his case. I can see them ignoring him yet again.
And The Assassin? fml, the most wondrous cinematic achievement of the year. Designed more beautifully than any other film in recent memory that I can recall. So fucking stunning. Ineligible for the Oscars, alas, and now shut out of the Foreign Language Film race.
True and true. I’m starting to think that Spotlight is the Sideways of this year. Wins script and nothing else.
I don’t think Anderson and Haynes’s filmography are similar, but their trajectory is similar to that of other auteurs who the Academy delays in recognizing. I can’t think of any others off the top of my head, which does not speak well of the Academy’s recognition of auteurs…
The Assassin. It’s heartbreaking that this film has been all but ignored. But I can take some solace in the fact that this film actually got an official US release. I believe Three Times (also brilliant) is the only other film to have a US theatrical release. And unlike The Grandmaster (from another master director), The Assassin didn’t have a studio hacking it to bits for general audiences.
I expected it to be nominated for Best Picture. So no worries.
Finally a good day for Carol.