This Oscar season has been one surprise after another. No one has been able to wrestle it to the ground completely, though plenty will rise to the surface to say they were sure this or that would happen because of course they knew (they didn’t know, they guessed). We get hunches all of the time. Sometimes they’re right, sometimes not, but a hunch is a hunch and nothing more. Still, Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg is one of the few I’ve seen who had a hunch about Mad Max: Fury Road not making it in. He’s taken a lot of heat for it. He also had a hunch Straight Outta Compton would be a player. He could be right about both. He could be wrong about both. We don’t know yet. What we do know is that, so far, the Hollywood industry seems ambivalent about Carol — no nominations at Producers Guild or Art Directors Guild but scoring with the Writers Guild and Cinematographers Guild — but BAFTA connected in a big way, as did the Hollywood Foreign Press. What’s the problem with Carol and the Americans? It’s hard to know, but whatever the difference — BAFTA chose Boyhood last year and not Birdman. Thus, we can be pretty sure their tastes are different for different reasons. We just don’t know what those reasons are.
Similarly, the BAFTA rejected Fury Road and George Miller as central players in the Oscar race, which came as a bit of a surprise. They had to make their choices and they didn’t go for the film except in the crafts categories (7 nominations, all below the line). Room hasn’t really hit on any of the lists necessary to make the Best Picture cut either but we still don’t know if passion will drive it through, as is sometimes the case.
Looking at BAFTA’s very recent history, once they changed up their voting in 2012 to match the Academy’s, you can see that they are pretty keen on matching Best Picture, while not so much on Best Director; although missing Best Director, as Spotlight did, will mean the film has to yet again make history to win, which is might do. It might be that one movie that can skate through to win Best Picture without any need for a director nomination, although Tom McCarthy should be named on Tuesday for the DGA. It would be very surprising if he isn’t.
Let’s build a quickie chart, shall we?
So what does this chart tell me?
- BAFTA’s choices make it in to Best Picture 100% of the time.
- BAFTA’s choices for Best Director make it into Best Picture 100% of the time.
- BAFTA’s choices for Best Director do not always make it into Oscar’s Best Director even when paired with DGA.
- Carol will become the first to get both BAFTA for Pic and Director while not being nominated by the ACE Eddie or PGA.
- In the past two years, a movie flew in for BP from out of nowhere that had no other nominations – Selma and Dallas Buyers Club.
We can conclude that all of BAFTA’s choices for Best Picture WILL make it into the Oscar race for Best Picture:
The Revenant
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Spotlight
Carol
Add to that, their choice for Best Director not named by BAFTA as Best Picture:
The Martian
That leaves three open slots if there will be nine. From where will those slots be filled? If we look at our chart, one came from the PGA in 2013, and two came from the PGA in 2014. As you see, it doesn’t even matter if a film has both the PGA and ACE Eddie — that still won’t make it a done deal with a five nominee ballot, a preferential voting system and more than five nominees.
In short, roll the dice. A DGA nomination could help tighten the gap with one of the names left dangling. As of now, it really could be either George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road or Denis Villeneuve for Sicario. Whoever it is, that film’s chances are upped significantly.
Worth noting, Selma did pop up in the Globes category for Best Director. Dallas Buyers Club did pop up in SAG ensemble. So they didn’t come TOTALLY out of nowhere. That leads me to believe these two are likely:
Mad Max: Fury Road
Straight Outta Compton
Brooklyn-maybe
This isn’t anything we didn’t already know, but you know me — I like to test various theories, build charts and pretend there is some THERE there to predicting an unpredictable race. I will be curious to see if Scott Feinberg’s hunch — that Mad Max isn’t and wasn’t and never will be — turns out to be right.
And, if I was really into long-shot betting, I might go ahead and predict Beasts of No Nation to make it in based on celebrity endorsements and passion votes, flying in from out of nowhere to land a Best Picture nomination. I just might go ahead and do that in the 11th hour but I haven’t decided yet.
Sharing my thoughts with you, dear readers, on this Saturday morning so that maybe in the end Scott Feinberg can say, “See, I was right. I took a rash of shit for two years but I was right. I feel you judging me. That’s palpable. I never said I was the hero of this story.”
Did I miss it or has anyone talked about this theory that there might be only 5 nominees for Best Picture?
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscars-why-this-could-be-the-year-only-5-films-get-nominated-for-best-picture-20160107
I made I comment that I thought there could be 7 or less, but that I didn’t think 5 – too steep a drop. I can easily see 6 or 7, though, and rather expect it, to be honest.
am i the only one who felt Brooklyn was extremely boring? and i read the book! which was also kind of boring but still.. what a boring and safe movie
Of the two of us – yes. Can’t speak for everybody else…
812 million dollars, folks. 93 RT rating. Are you really going to commit award nomination suicide, Oscars, and snub the most popular film of all time? TFA #TooBigToSnub.
they snubbed avatar by giving best pic to a movie nobody remembers or cares about ….so yeah they can certainly do worse to TFA pfff
The Hurt Locker is more highly regarded in 2015 than Avatar.
I would contest for any other genre film but yeah not Avatar.
It’s not the most popular film of all time.
Wow–for the life of me…why isn’t Oscar paying attention to Abel Ferrara’s WELCOME TO NEW YORK instead of THE BIG fucking SHORT?!!?
I notice that Revenant was not nominated for Screenplay at BAFTA ….I wonder , could it still win B P at Bafta without it ?
I seriously doubt that SPOTLIGHT will win BAFTA and I suspect that BIG SHORT will I fact win OSCAR but it could be that CAROL or REVENANT wins the BAFTA
Golden Globe Predictions
Picture (Drama): Spotlight
Picture (Comedy): The Big Short
Director: Ridley Scott, The Martian
Actor (Drama): Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Actress (Drama): Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Actor (Comedy): Matt Damon, The Martian
Actress (Comedy): Maggie Smith, Lady in the Van
Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Supporting Actress: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Screenplay: Spotlight
Animated Feature: Inside Out
Foreign Film: Son of Saul
Score: Carol
Song: Furious 7
This is without doubt the most exciting Oscar year I can remember. Usually by this time most major categories appear locked.
Can’t get The Revenant out of my head. I wish it would make a late surge but I doubt it.
I wonder whether the Globes might honour Innaritu as they didn’t last year. Don’t think so as they voted way before the current buzz and box office success.
I’ve been thinking about the number of nominations we’re likely to have in Best Picture and the actual way that voting works…
The way the preferential ballot works, it doesn’t make sense to assume there will be very few nominees (i.e. 5-7)…. Even if 90% of the Academy votes for the same film or two in the first round, an unused portion of their votes get redistributed to films that are further down on their ballots.
So, thinking about the films that are likely to get nominated also creates a secondary question. What films are those voting for the top 2-3 frontrunners likely to also list on their ballots…
If we assume the top vote getters are SPOTLIGHT and THE BIG SHORT. What are likely to be these voters’ #2-5 choices? I can’t help but feel these voters are likely to enjoy similar dramas, which strengthens SICARIO and BRIDGE OF SPIES and perhaps STRAIGHT OUT OF COMPTON.
If MAD MAX, THE MARTIAN, and THE REVENANT are top choices, that would seem to favor EX MACHINA and STAR WARS in redistribution passes.
Of course the reverse holds true as well… If a film gets eliminated, votes also get redistributed to other films further down the ballot… which could be how films on the cusp early on ultimately make the cut.
Remember, the preferential balloting system doesn’t favor diversity… It perpetuates the same tastes and consensus choices. It’s designed for “fairness” rather than excitement.
That’s something that we often forget in making predictions, I think. Because of the oddity of the preferential balloting system, our notions of, say, CAROL voters versus BROOKLYN voters are a fallacy. Many voters might have voted for both of these films, and had votes for both get counted!
Beyond reminding myself of the foolishness of predicting a set number of nominees (which is really just impossible… it’s a fluke of math that determines the number of nominations… might as well list 10), I’m not quite certain how this would concretely alter anyone’s ability to make predictions… but it’s something to remember about the process itself.
Brooklyn seems like movie they will put in. Scicario, SOC, Room and Fury Road all seem iffy. Star Wars is still a possibility. Maybe we will just have 5 or 6.
Pretty much sums up my thoughts about it as well…
I love Fury Road, but I deeply and honestly just lack the ability to see the Academy nominating it. Not because it doesn’t deserve it, but because it’s just SO out there. If it gets nominated, how exciting, that means maybe the tides are turning and they truly have gotten enough young blood in there to make a difference.
The Revenant is awful. Cinematography is good but that film is just a big bunch of nothing.
The Revenant is based on a true story. It is not a bunch of nothing. When you say it is awful you should say to me. Because I can say The Revenant is amazing! Because for me it is.
It’s loosely based on a true story. i really enjoyed The Revenant. but let’s not pretend it’s great because it’s a true story. It’s not.
Hahaha you missed the whole point of my post. Again, for YOU it may not be great, for ME it is. Cheers
Actually, if you read the true story, you come to see even more how manipulative and stupid that movie was.
Feinberg is, IMO, the best in the prediction business but he has beclowned himself with his views on Mad Max.
He is right tho. I think he runs with the crowd and therefore knows what those old farts like ore than us plebians.
Why are people still so cynical about SOC making it in ? It will and is probably the safest outside of the top 4.
Because it’s not looking like getting even one other nomination. Which never happens (just BP). Even two nominations in total is very rare, though it happens sometimes. It MIGHT get in, but that’s not a safe bet…
Wow, The Revenant has a Cinemascore rating of B+. Better than expected given its hard subject and R rating.
Revenant is also gonna make a fckton of money. Not that it can help now.
It’s better than bombing like ‘Steve Jobs,” which made only $7.3 million as it went wide. (Score: A-)
Same rating as Pan.
For the record, other B+ scored films include ”Mad Max: Fury Road,” ”Pulp Fiction” and ”Fargo.”’
Just got back from a screening of Trumbo. More like Dumbo! The older ladies I was with kept uttering “Oh this is just bad” and “Isn’t that somethin?”
We walked out halfway through bored and confused. We expect nothing but a costume nod for this overrated mess. My older friend who is 88 said “I saw more ham on screen then I do at thanksgiving.”
glad to see other people tought same thing i did ! esp telling given their age they would remember those times better than us 30smtg bunch !
There are certain things that are not accurate. The Bafta’s Best Picture nominees are not 100% with the Academy all the time.
Bafta’s Best Picture nominees that did not make it into Best Picture:
2011
1) Drive
2) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
2007
1)The Lives of Others
2)American Gangster
2006
1) The Last King of Scotland
2005
1)The Constant Gardner
2004
1)The Motorcycle Diaries
2)Vera Drake
2003
1)Big Fish
2)Cold Mountain
AND so on
And for Best Director, the BAFTA’s often predict 3 sometimes 2.
One can also say the PGA nominees ”are not 100% with the Academy all the time,” either. Ditto, for the Globes, Broadcast Film Critics, SAG, etc. … But there’s enough overlap to keep tabs on them.
Pay attention, since 2012 they changed their voting
Sasha “Looking at BAFTA’s very recent history, once they changed up their voting in 2012 to match the Academy’s, you can see that they are pretty keen on matching Best Picture”
Tapley : “Up until a few years ago, BAFTA wasn’t a great barometer in either phase of the season, really. The reason was the org’s voting system, which was formerly the reverse of the American Academy’s, i.e., the entire group would decide nominees collectively while the various branches would determine the winners. But ever since that system was reversed, with branches deciding nominees and the collective group picking winners, it’s become one of the most significant bellwethers in the race.”
Well, f*** me, what did just happen? Race is now down to Zzzzzpotlight and Big Snore? WTF? What happened to Sci Fi Wins Finally Fo Sho Either Max or Martian? WTF? I was out of the loop cause vacation abroad and now I come back to this mess! TFA bombs with PGA (TRAGIC!), two boring as f*** dramas that nobody will remember tomorrow are in contention to win. The hack? I need some updating pronto. What the hell happened?
HAHAHA, the race is all over the place. People are making predictions that is between Spotlight and The Big Short, but every film this year in contention has missed 1 or 2 key nominations.
Is that so? Thank you so much on the update. I really needed. Well, I guess that, if GG doesn’t boost sci fi, I’m gonna just call it quits as far as following the Oscar races goes. Not interested in another freakin drama winning.
I think most people are starting to feel that way. It’s the same stuff every year and it’s starting to lose its excitement. We’ll see what happens Thursday
Yes. I’m tired of the same stuff every year too, it is getting way too monotonous. If it is Spotlight vs The Big Short I’m not going to be wasting my time on the Oscars anymore. They need to start making bold decisions, if not the ratings are going to go down like last years.
Certainly it is true that the Oscars have not embraced genre films for the big prize — relatively few or no wins to westerns, horror films, sci-fi. More for musicals.
But on the other hand I don’t think it is quite accurate to say that the Oscar BP goes to the “same stuff every year”.
2006 — The Departed — modern big city cop/crime drama
2007 — No Country for Old Man — edgy indie thriller set in mid-West
2008 — Slumdog Millionaire — drama about game show contestant in India
2009 — The Hurt Locker — intense Iraq war drama
2010 — The King’s Speech — traditional comfy English period piece
2011 — The Artist — silent B&W homage to cinema’s past
2012 — Argo — political thriller set largely in Iran
2013 — 12 Years a Slave — historical drama about slavery
2014 — Birdman — one-take drama with fantasy elements about actors in NYC
Taking just last year on its own, the winner, Birdman (which I disliked) was absolutely one of the strangest choices for the Oscar BP ever.
I’m not saying all of these films are my choices — I loved some, was indifferent to others, and hated a few. But not one of these films is “like” any other.
They should start making bold decisions yet they can’t make bold decisions even about freakin presenters! Orlando Bloom? Are you kidding me? How is he more relevant than TFA actors? WTF? Who wants to see Bloom? Eveyrone wants to see Boyega, Driver and Isaac. Who wants to see Mrs Johnny Depp? Everyone wants to see Daisy Ridley! My point exactly. They can’t get presenters for Globes right, do you honestly think they are going to vote for the right movie? F*** that s***. Not worth it. NOT. WORTH.IT.
Irrespective of what Feinberg or any other Oscar pundit has to say, 8 movies are locked for BP nominations:
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Revenant
Mad Max
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Carol
Brooklyn
If there are more than 8, it will be one/two among Room, Straight Outta Compton and Sicario. Though I will give Room the edge simply because of passion votes from female voters.
I’m pretty sure that about 2 of those movies will not get in. I have no idea which, but the Academy never fails to surprise.
I think the same, only replcing Brooklyn with Room, as the likely 8th nominee. I also think The Danish Girl has a better shot, given how strong is going to be among branches.
“i’m just happy that The Big Short reached the frontrunner status over Spotlight…” (He couldn’t end it two words earlier…)
Honestly, now I can’t wait until this is once more happening to one of YOUR (plural) favorites, in favor of one of mine! Like with Birdman over Boyhood last year. It’ll come around again, don’t y’all worry!… You can’t avoid it! And, after what I’ve had to endure this past couple of days, I’m ready to make YOUR life hell with random, periodic malicious comments, when it does!… (I probably won’t, truth be told, because it’s not my thing and I don’t like that approach, but I should… I REALLY should… And, if y’all keep making these comments, you might just push me far enough over the edge, and I might do it, anyway! Internet justice, baby!)
Chill the fuck out. Enjoy your favs for what they are, the awards will sort themselves out.
It’s not the awards that are bothering me. It’s the anti-Spotlight comments, like the one above. I don’t understand how you can HATE that movie. I get why you’d be underwhelmed, but to hate it, or the fact that it might win BP, when so many movies there are far more reasons to hate have won in the past… No! That’s just beyond comprehension, for me…
People are gonna hate what they want to hate, man. Don’t worry about them. You keep rooting for Spotlight.
I suppose you’re right… Like with all things you just don’t understand, you can a) obsess forever, probably never reaching a conclusion or b) just let it go. The latter, indeed, seems more practical. I just need time to adjust to (and start expecting) the daily barrage of hate.
Exactly right. Hang in there, buddy.
🙂 Thanks! Will do!
There will always be internet trolls, and I know its hard to avoid the comments when we wanna advocate something you love (I’ve experienced it when the Lakers were winning titles). However, you have to stay strong and remember that this is just a contest. Spotlight loses does not mean the end of the world.
You keep advocating Spotlight with no questions asked.
Good analogy with sports – I hadn’t thought of that. Definitely makes more sense, looking at it like that!…
Well, people tend to dislike things that are getting benefits undeservedly (or at least if they think it’s undeserved). Even if it’s a good movie, it becomes antipathetic, or else, the Big Ugly Frontrunner.
I know, but Spotlight seems like such a harmless, 100% politically correct (except to members of the Catholic Church, I suppose) movie. But, yeah, they still found reasons to hate it – guess no frontrunner is ever safe. I wonder if Fury Road, THE most universally beloved movie of the year, had been in Spotlight’s position, if the same thing would have happened. Probably…
Mad Max is in an even worse position. Spotlight is being renegaded to the runner-up place. The industry could renegade Mad Max by not even nominating it for Best Picture.
I imagine the acting and writing branches, as a whole, are really mad at its sucess in the critics circuit.
It is not my favorite film of the year but definitely is the most challenging piece of directing of the year. The only guy I can accept beating George Miller is Ridley Scott because it is a lifetime achievement award, which he deserves do much. And I have a feeling that is growing that he won’t be nominated.
Could happen, I agree. I don’t think it will, though. Going on the record, here: Fury Road will be nominated for BP & BD. 🙂
Well… It was the anti-Boyhood feeling, powered by the virtually unanimous praise by the critics that fueled Birdman’s (your fave last year) win. It’s always like that. The industry doesn’t like something else (critics) to tell what they are supposed to do.
Spotlight is totally Boyhooding this awards season. It will likely lose to an inferior film that the industry can ”feel” more.
What bothers me is that it’s actually not even ‘Boyhooding’ it – it’s showing signs that it might be much weaker than that. I hadn’t expected its lead to not even last until the Oscar nominations were announced… It’s too obvious, somehow, almost obscene, this shift over to The Big Short. Oh, well…
I’m not sure that TBS will win BAFTA …I think that maybe CAROL will
BAFTA’s after the guilds, anyway (if it’s like last year) so we should know by then what’s winning anyway. But, in any case, TBS can win neither the GG Comedy or the Critics Choice and it still won’t matter much at all if it wins the PGA, because then it’s still winning BP, and, if it doesn’t, then it’s still very likely not. What matters right now are the snubs so far and those yet to be decided. The DGA and Oscar nominations are the only truly relevant steps remaining until the PGA announces its winner, in my opinion. Which is annoying, because it makes it so Spotlight pretty much has nothing real to gain from tonight’s Golden Globes, and only to lose (in case it loses either Drama or Screenplay, or both). This is the part that bugs me the most. I have to wait AT LEAST two more days until the DGA, which could still do nothing for Spotlight, and, if so, another two days for the Oscar nominations. It’s a very, very bad situation to be in for us few Spotlight supporters remaining…
I definitely do not hate Spotlight,loved it in fact but i do think it should not win BP. I also think most people do not genuinely hate a lot of thee movies. these areas are very black and white.. You either think it should win BP or you don’t.
Enough do, though – otherwise they wouldn’t be so happy it’s fallen behind (which they keep saying).
Not more than the no. of people who hate Big Short. More people were perturbed that something like Spotlight(and Big Short and Bridge of Spies), which comes out every year is going to win. It was a very exciting race and now its same old same old. Spotlight still has chance of pulling a Birdman.
It’s like hating Boyhood… It makes just as much ‘sense’, if not less…
Is any of this supposed to make sense? Taste is so subjective. Why can so many love one movie, while so many others hate it? There’s no right or wrong or logic. Intelligent people can disagree, but let’s be civil and respectful of other’s opinions (and not feed the trolls).
If it were only trolls, it wouldn’t bother/befuddle me so much… But, yeah, I have to learn to ignore it, regardless. I WILL learn my lesson – that any movie can, apparently, be hated just as much as any other movie!
A lot of people hate Boyhood genuinely. I did not like it at all and was glad Birdman won just because it was not Boyhood. Liking a movie does not depend on its awards potential. None of my favourites have ever won anything and hardly any has even been nominated.
Hmmm… I don’t know about ‘a lot’…
I did like Boyhood. It was my 4th-favorite of the year, Birdman being 1st.
You know, you could’ve responded to me directly instead of crying all over the place like a poor thing…i don’t hate Spotlight, i just prefer The Big Short (although my real favorite is Mad Max but since is not winning…), does that make me a hater? It’s called tastes, last year i also prefered much more Birdman over Boyhood. I mean, did you even saw me making an “anti-Spotlight” comment or you had some delusions? Calm down and stop moaning!
Obviously, I wanted more people to see my reply, since it was about more than just your comment.
Like I said, you could have stopped two words short if you don’t hate Spotlight… Would have been the classy thing to do. I also didn’t hate Boyhood last year – far from it – and you didn’t see me going around rejoicing loudly when it stopped being in the lead… It’s poor form. I actually felt for its supporters, which I’m pretty sure I even said, perhaps more than once. I’m sure people can confirm this, or I can perform a quick search myself.
It would have been better if you DID hate Spotlight, given your comment… This way, it just seems gratuitously malicious.
Would Mad Max be the first sequel nominated for BP in which no previous film in the franchise received a BP nom?
No, Toy Story 3.
… and Silence of the Lambs. Was #2nd film of the Hannibal Lecter franchise, after Michael Mann’s “Manhunter”, starring Brian Cox as Lecter.
Not really a sequel though, just a film made about the next book in a series.
I’m saying, oh ye of little Mad Max faith after 1 little BAFTAs.
Everyone bookmark this post. The OP plus the thread are gonna look crazy at this time next week.
Personally I’m still on the fence about Bridge of Spies as a BP nom. I wouldn’t bet $20 on it. (I’m already betting more than that on other noms.)
It’d be great if BoS was snubbed (because I don’t think it deserves it), but I’ve thought from day 1 this was going to get in, and it’s actually even exceeded my expectations in the precursor phase so far… But I think both it and Mad Max get in. The safest 6 (The Martian, The Revenant, Fury Road, Bridge of Spies, Spotlight, The Big Short) get in, plus maybe a 7th (I would say Brooklyn, but maybe Carol – or maybe Room, though I doubt it, with less than 9), and that’s it. If there are 9, Carol gets in as well. Then, either Room (probably) or Sicario.
been saying the same thing awhile now
An historical drama about lesbians without even a Nazi. Where does that fit into the best picture category? I think the amazing thing would be for Carol to actually be nominated. The Academy has shown time and again that this would not be their go to topic especially when there are movies about mute men stumbling in the wild waiting to be honored.
Yeah, you do make a good point…
That’s one more argument for why there’ll be less than 8 nominees this year.
I will be very surprised if Carol isn’t nominated. Now that The Hateful Eight hasn’t been doing as well as many hoped, I’m sure Harvey Weinsten is putting all of his energy into Todd Haynes’ film. I think it’s definitely in.
I think Mad Max will overperform and will be the first or second most honored film Oscar night. The comparison is Inception. Warner.
it’s going to grab most of the tech categories for sure.
I still think it is one of the few films that can actually win. My shortlist is basically, The Big Short, Spotlight and Fury Road. I don’t think anyone else, has what it takes to win. 50% for TBS, 35% for Spotlight, 15% for Fury Road. If it scores Director and 9 other noms, it might win. Specially if it sneaks in, in Score and Actress, that would indicate a heavy all around support. I’m thinking it’ll be nom’d for Picture, Director, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, both Sound, Make up & VFX in the very least. That’s 9. Heavy chances in Costume, that’ll be 10. With Score and Actress as still possible, that’s 11-12 noms and with permission of The Martian, The Revenant and Carol, the most nominated film of the night, which gives it an edge, despite the more than likely – and unfair – snub at Adapted Screenplay. If by any chance, MMFR is nominated at Screenplay, we’re aiming to a sweep… remember, Titanic wasn’t nominated for Screenplay.
Now that the nominations ballots are in I feel I have the freedom to not be nice to mediocre pictures and performances. So this is fair warning. lol
Anyway, I never thought that MAD MAX would be a kind of front runner. That surprised me. I did know that it had a lot of fans but I did think it would be over taken by late breakers. But once again the late breakers broke bad. Not all of them. THE BIG SHORT would be a deserving BP winner. But some of the stuff we were waiting for out here in neverland just didn’t pass muster. Having seen THE REVENANT today, I can say that it reminded me of two other films. APOCALYPTO and THE GREY. Both those movies were better and APOCALYPTO should have been an Oscar winner but we all know what happened there. I also accidentally saw another of the films that everyone thinks is so amazeballs and it was okay. I’m not going to start WW3 by mentioning that one just yet. But some of you guys have seriously low standards. If you want to find my truest opinions you know where they are. I don’t want to make anyone cry here though. You all seem like nice people. Except Gail.
Who me?? I’m always nice dear. I just happen to be very cut and dry when it comes to predicting the right films. My readings are part of my soul. I only forecast what’s in the cards.
And right now, Cate is still winning her third Oscar. Trust me, I’m not a fangirl. #blanchett #Aussie3
You’re nice? Really? Even if you are we still kinda hate you.
I think the only people hating are your parents. They confided in me last night and said they wish your last name was Spanish, so they didn’t have to understand you.
A shame that crystal balls don’t emit wit.
If I had a crystal ball with me I’d smash it across your dimwitted skull! Now stop interfering with my psychic readings for the Oscar Nominations on Thursday.
Oh, and Steve Harvey will be the one announcing them.
Your comment amused me. I wondered if the “okay” movie was Carol.
Shhh…..
Apocalypto, an Oscar winner?SPOILER It didn’t matter what you thought about the film, but having the Spanish arrive to the Maian empire, hundreds years before, in the last minutes, sank any chances to take the film seriously. END SPOILER
Also, Concussion is the most relevant film right now, as I sit here watching the NFL playoffs.
It is. And it’s better than a lot of these movies that are assumed to rank higher. I don’t even know how it did buzzwise but coming out the same time as The Force Awakens didn’t help anybody.
I still think Concussion will get 2 nominations-best actor, and best song.
I’m a big fan of Feinberg, but he is wrong, Mad Max: Fury Road gets in with DGA, and gets Picture and Director nominations with AMPAS.
I don’t want to, but I’m afraid I agree with Paddy. I want to believe in Mad Max’s chances, and I did until BAFTA came out. Those nominations were a disaster. Not even Best Director. That’s terrible for the film. True, BAFTA is generally more genre-averse but for such a wildly acclaimed film, you’d think they’d take chance. They didn’t, and I fear AMPAS will follow suit.
i saw trumbo and found it pretty blah for 2/3 of the movie somewhere near the end it started gaining a bit of my interest, , even spotlight and the big short are miles better and i found them just there a tad underwhelming as i was expecting more from frontrunners , heck even bridge of spies was better at the whole usa vs russia underlying theme
as for mad max still clueless that one flew over my head and yes i saw it in a full cinema 2 hrs i won’t get back ever all i remember is noise now the revenant absolutely gorgeous movie , leo just amazing ,
“as for mad max still clueless that one flew over my head and yes i saw it in a full cinema 2 hrs i won’t get back ever all i remember is noise”
You should DEFINITELY watch it again at home, in 2D. I had similar impressions after my cinema viewing, but loved it the second time around, at home. One of the biggest improvements for me by any movie from 1st to 2nd viewing. If you have two further hours to spare, and enough interest in giving it a second chance, I wholeheartedly say: go for it!
I believe that Mad Max will totally get in in the expanded BP field, not sure about Miller but if he makes the cut in DGA then he’s totally in. Either way, i’m just happy that The Big Short reached the frontrunner status over Spotlight…
Just to give another statistic, the last time a film led the BAFTA nominations but didn’t get an Oscar BP nomination was Casino Royale, in 2006. Even in 2009, when Avatar, An Education, and The Hurt Locker all tied for the most nominations, all three got in for Oscar. Carol also leads the Golden Globe nominations and is (of course) a huge critics’ darling. Even if it misses DGA, I’d say it’s in the clear. Bridge of Spies is pretty safe as well.
My thinking exactly…
I think that Brooklyn, Carol, and Room are all interchangeable. If one of them gets in, the others will not.
A film with a female protagonist that has pages of dialogue between two or more women isn’t something the Academy likes nowadays.
I agree. Just look at the two frontrunners. You have Spotlight with a bunch of guys and one kinda boring nothing-of-note performance from McAdams. (I don’t like her, so I might be biased.) Then you have Big Short: cast of guys with women in purely decorative roles that are almost laughably stereotypical: the stripper, Margot Robbie in a bubble bath, the Gomez part. For this to be the case in the year of Carol, Room, and Brooklyn? Not optimal. I liked both movies, but I see the BP lineup as being a sea of men and the token ONE woman-centered pics because heaven forbid they throw out more than one bone.
And hasn’t liked very much since the end of the studio era. The only BP winner in the past 25 years that matches your description is Chicago and its pages of dialogue are song lyrics.
I will be surprised if Brooklyn isn’t on the best picture list next week.
It will!
From your lips to Oscars ears.
I won’t be. Not just because I don’t get the hype. I also don’t think the stats are in its favor currently. Room is sadly looking pretty weak as well.
It’s the only female protagonist film that got a PGA nom, etc. Its stats are very high!!
Why should you be surprised?
It’s a film with a female protagonist and there is A LOT of dialogue between women. For quite awhile, the Academy has not cared for these kinds of pictures. “They don’t get the hype”.
What are you talking about?
Agreed. If Sasha is right and it’s Brooklyn/Mad Max/Compton competing for one spot, then Brooklyn has the huge edge as an ‘Academy movie’ through and through.
Me too, if there are 8-10 nominees.
It’s possible that like someone has speculated, this year could be as few as 6 nominees.
In which case, I think the academy might possibly choose the following 6: Spotlight, The Big Short, Sicario, Brooklyn, Creed, and The Revenant.
There’s no way Creed is in with less than 8 nominees. I don’t think it has much of a chance even with 9 or 10, but with 6 it would just be absolutely shocking. It would be in over way too many of the favorites…
Creed was my top movie of the year, but it’s not in the mix. It’ll be lucky if it even gets the one nomination for Stallone.
Let’s point out, Mad Max is an anomaly, and therefore should be judged as such. It really does not matter, if misses here or there, but on technicals. It’s more than 5 nominees, can be up to 9, therefore there’s a wider margin for it, to get in… it’s the frontrunner on almost every tech cathegory, meaning is going to get a sh*tload of #1 spots in the lists. It’s really likely, that Oscar-wise, MMFR might be one of the top 3 #1 picks. I’d say, it’s completely in. Not locked, right now, but it would be extremely surprising if it doesn’t, and difficult to explain. Same for Miller.
I’ve got the feeling Straight Outta Compton and Beasts of No Nation share a big chunk of the voters. It could be one, both, or neither, and so far I’m inclined to think it’ll be SOC or neither, but Elba will be BoNN’s only nom.
Right now, for the noms for BP I have.
The top 5: The Big Short, Spotlight, Mad Max: Fury Road, Carol, The Martian
6. Room
7. The Revenant
8. Straight Outta Compton
(edit: I forgot Bridge of Spies, which is #6 in my book) That gives Straight Outta Compton a #9 spot and I’d have Danish Girl and Brooklyn as possible spoilers. But I’m going with just 8 nominees.
I think it’ll be just 8. If 9, I have a hunch it can be The Danish Girl or Brooklyn
The Danish Girl? The Danish Girl? The Danish Girl? The actual Danish Girl?
Hold on…
The Danish Girl?!/1/1/1??!?!?!?!?!?1/!?1/2eqrwsjfkdv1
I can’t really believe you forgot how AMPAS actually works: broad branch appeal + important theme + prestige team makes you have a real shot. It’s expected to earn a lot of noms, therefore we can’t simply dismiss it as a possible BP nominee. Tom Hooper won’t be nom’d, but remember, this film might get 2 acting noms and 1 screenplay nom, plus score, cinematography, costume and production design. 7 noms and no BP? Think twice. I don’t have it as a sure thing but there’re actual chances it might.
After last year especially, anything goes. I personally wouldn’t be surprised either.
lol 7 noms
‘I can’t really believe you forgot how AMPAS actually works’
No I didn’t. I just don’t think it has a hope. And I’m very far from alone on that.
of course you’re not alone. But never say 0% with a film like this. AMPAS really dig Tom Hooper’s work.
Never said 0%.
Digging someone’s work only lasts so long. Voters are fickle. 10 nominations for Gangs of New York! 11 for The Aviator – 5 wins! The Departed wins Best Picture and 3 other awards! Hugo gets 11 nominations and 5 wins too! The Wolf of Wall Street also nominated for Best Picture! And square in the middle, the brilliant Shutter Island. Nothing for that.
Shutter Island was perceived as a minor Scorsese, back then. And that came in, right after he finally won. After that “break”, he came back to Oscar appeal, by making two great films (that honestly, are more inventive and deserving than Shutter Island).
Yes, that one — THE DANISH GIRL, a movie of uncommon sensitivity, bold narrative and with two fully developed and felt characters, both challenging and beautifully acted, superbly designed, costumed and shot. That one.
No chance for Best Picture.
I’m not referring to the film’s quality. I’m referring to its Oscar chances. Virtually no-one is talking about the film for Best Picture. Nobody in the Academy gives a shit how uncommonly sensitive you think it is.
It was horrifically bad.
The Avengers: Age of Ultron will get in before The Danish Girl.
Hell, no. The Danish Girl is going to score likely noms at Actor, Actress (or Supporting), Costume and probably Production Design, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Score. That’s up to 7 probable-likely noms, an 8th for BP, in an expanded field, it’s more than possible. Remember: widespread appeal on branches fuels you to Best Picture, regardless of what review said. I haven’t seen it yet, but if Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and The Blind Side got in, The Danish Girl, which has been better received, has a shot, specially to its wider branches excellence.
Age of Ultron was worse received in all levels (but b.o.) than Ant Man. If a Marvel movie was going to surprise, would be that one. If you’re looking for a VFX blockbuster to surprise, that’s SW7, as much as I shrugged at it.
Actor is a maybe. He’s up against Carell, Damon, DiCaprio, Fassbender, Jordan and DiCaprio. It’ll be close.
Production Design is also a maybe, even if it was dazzling. Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Cinderella, Crimson Peak, Mad Max, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars, Trumbo all competing in that category.
Cinematography is a probable no. It’d be behind Bridge of Spies, Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max, The Revenant and Sicario, and no higher up in likelihood than Brooklyn or The Martian.
Adapted Screenplay is almost 100% no. It’s way behind Anomalisa, The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, Room and Steve Jobs, and probably also less likely than 45 Years due to its relative acclaim.
I mean plz, The Danish Girl? Find anyone else who believes it stands a good chance at a Best Picture nomination. Find anyone else who believes it’s going to be nominated for Adapted Screenplay.
And finally: ‘widespread appeal on branches fuels you to Best Picture’. Dreamgirls and The Dark Knight say hi.
I approve this message, and I love Tom Hooper to bits, that’s saying…
Dreamgirls and TDK may have gotten in with the expanded field.
Aye but that they could each have received eight nominations and not gotten in for Best Picture says something. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Foxcatcher both in five categories, both inc. major nominations, and not for Best Picture in expanded fields?
It definitely doesn’t have a good chance, but it has A chance. 🙂 Probably (way) under 4%. I don’t think it’s quite 0%, though.
Dreamgirls and The Dark Knight didn’t get the nom, when there could only be 5 nominees for Best Picture… now, it’s 5 to 10. I mean, yeah, you really forgot how AMPAS is behaving. Neither Dreamgirls or The Dark Knight would have failed for a BP nomination, with more than 5 nominees.
The film is not going to get seven nominations. I’d bet my house on that. And if it did, I’d still bet that it wouldn’t get a Best Picture nomination, even with ten nominees. My point is still valid, because since when did I regress to the point of forgetting that there were only five nominees in the last decade? Dreamgirls lost out to two films with half as many nominations as it; The Dark Knight to one with just over half. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo couldn’t get past Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, or The Help which had only acting nominations. Foxcatcher lost out to Selma with its Original Song nom and nothing more Branch support only goes so far. If the film isn’t liked enough, it won’t get in. And nobody but nobody wants The Danish Girl in for Best Picture.
Okay well you took that seriously. What I meant is that Avengers chances of scoring a Best Picture nomination is the same as The Danish Girl — 0%
The Danish Girl is a longshot for a BP nom, it’s true. But to say, its chances are 0%, is a sympton of having no idea how voting for AMPAS actually works. The branches vote for themselves and for Best Picture, and when in doubt, they put as #1 the film that they liked the most AND also has direct relationship with their branch. That’s why the Best Picture nominees, normally have a lot of nominations among branches, and why Best Picture winners, are, normally, the most nominated films. With The Danish Girl aiming for 4+ noms, probably 6+, a BP nom can easily happen. Its only problem, is fighting for the very same appeal of Carol, without the sense of dueness Todd Haynes has, as Tom Hooper won a few years ago.
I wonder if voters will ultimately be resistant to award Netflix’s films because they take away from the theater experience. I can’t imagine Netflix dominating Oscars like they do television awards because at least the media for streaming vs networks is the same thing: a television set.
The most important thing to remember here, I think, is:
The Academy doesn’t give a shit about precedent if they love / hate your film. There’s no way Dreamgirls, The Dark Knight, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo can miss? There’s no way Letters from Iwo Jima, The Reader, The Tree of Life, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Selma can make it? Think again.
My gut feeling is that not enough Academy members are gonna love Mad Max, and too many are gonna hate it, or not even consider sitting through it, to get it in.
for the nom, hate is not a problem. For the win, it can be.
I approve this message : THE ACADEMY DOES WHAT THE ACADEMY WANTS!!!
I will never EVER forget the year Extremely Annoying & Incredibly Dumb made it in and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo did not. I sat here in the wee hours, in front of my computer unable to blink or move for 5 minutes.
Something fucked up is DEFINITELY going to happen……and I just hope it’s not my Carol that goes down like my Girl with the Dragon Tattoo did.
Ditto. And to think Dragon Tattoo had PGA, DGA and WGA noms and couldn’t even crack the Academy’s top nine over that hideous piece of shit. It didn’t reap Oscar noms in any of those categories. Fucking disgrace. At least by now I’ve prepared myself for a similar show with Carol, though I’m still not sure if that’ll ease the pain…
I’m trying to be prepared and it’s increasingly harder as this year’s top piece of shit IMO, The Revenant, is gaining momentum. I makes me lose faith in the whole god damn world.
The one thing keeping me from totally excluding Mad Max, aside from its possible DGA nomination on Tuesday, is the fact that it won the LAFCA award for Best Director. I know it’s a critics awards, but only one of their winners (Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master) in the last 25 years has not gone on to be nominated for Best Director by the Academy. I mean, these are the people who awarded David Lynch, Terrence Malick and Pedro Almodovoar, all respected veterans in their field who delivered some of the more ‘out-there’ and visionary films of each of those years (particularly in regards to Lynch and Malick). The LAFCA win doesn’t guarantee anything for Miller, but based on those statistics it certainly doesn’t hurt his chances either.
Saw the Revenant last night. Some of what I had read gave me the impression it wasn’t going to go all the way in terms of Best Picture because of the violence/gore. I think there are Academy members who will find it too much, but I have to say that I think it really is a serious contender. I was never sold on Spotlight winning.
No way. Lots of people hate Revenant. The rotten tomatoes negative scores are off the charts.
I have a terrible feeling that Mad Max will suffer the fate of Inception… lots of tech noms, a nom for Best Picture, but somehow leaving George Miller off the list… which will be bittersweet to say the least…
I don’t know HOW the Academy could possibly deny Miller’s accomplishment, but this is the same group that nominated the director of the Imitation Game last year and also gave Tom Hooper an Oscar over David Fincher, so…….
I think Feinberg is overrating BAFTA. Mad Max still dominated techs there despite the snubs. Mad Max has dominated guilds as well. Just so long as it seals the deal at DGA, it’ll be fine.
Feinberg didn’t think AMPAS was going for MM long before BAFTA announced.
I do agree with a lot of what your saying here, but if I follow my gut feeling I’d say there is no way 300-400 people will not passionately push for Fury Road and the directors branch LOVE Miller. I will eat my words if he’s not on DGA, right after I tear my house apart.
I’ve mentally prepared myself now not to see therons name. .that’s ok. But to snub the movie altogether? This happens every year but i’m holding out faith we’ve got some decent nominees otherwise this will be my last rodeo.this can’t be a hobby anymore if we’re not having fun. .right?
My recent prediction for the DGA:
The Big Short
Spotlight
Mad Max Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
I definitely fear what a few weeks ago felt like was going to be a great year, is actually turning out to be a terrible year.
The Big Short has an important message about a subject matter that happened in 2008.
Spotlight has an important message about a subject matter that happened in the 70’s.
The Revenant has an important message about a subject matter that is happening NOW. That’s why it will WiN Best Picture. This narrative will continue to be driven by the brilliant Leonardo DiCaprio. It only helps that The Revenant is opening wide right now – so it will stay very fresh in the Academy Voter’s minds.
I don’t really agree – don’t think there is any way The Revenant can win Best Picture. It will be nominated but not win. Passion choices help with nominations but you need a broad consensus to win and Revenant will be too divisive. Also, I don’t think it’s about right now – Big Short is about 2008 but also right now. Spotlight is about 2000 but also right now. They have pulse beats in what’s happening in our world as we speak. I think Big Short has it.
Carol is about acceptance of gay sexual liberation, which is happening right now. And The Martian is about using science to overcome the destruction we have wrought on the world, which is happening right now. The Big Short is about corruption, which is happening right now.
The Revenant is about equating masculinity with revenge and then celebrating it, which is DANGEROUS message to put into the world right now.
”Brooklyn” set 1950s, happening right now too….
What is the biggest problem that humanity is facing right now?
It’s not the Catholic abuse and it is not the Financial Crisis and corruption.
The biggest obstacle to humanity is global warming and climate change. I thought that you would know that. Just ask Bernie Sanders!
I think Spotlight speaks (at least on multiple viewings) about something larger than just the Catholic Church. It’s about holding institutions accountable for the actions of individuals. How often have we heard conservatives say that crazy gunmen don’t represent gun culture in America? Spotlight rejects the notion that “one bad egg” stands outside the institution.
Exactly, its about institutions, and its especially about community as an institution, and yes accountability – if it takes a village to raise a child, it takes one to abuse him, the most powerful line in the movie, in my eyes. You can’t excuse yourself from blame just because you didn’t have a direct part in the abuse – in situations like Spotlight’s, we are all complicit, and of course that’s going on in today’s society in other ways, like police brutality.
Thank you! Police brutality was the other example I was thinking about.
‘Spotlight has an important message about a subject matter that happened in the 70’s.’
Or a subject matter that has happened for centuries on every continent and is happening still today. Pretty fucking insensitive and ill-informed of you, Velimir. Like, say that to the abuse survivors from 2015, even 2016. Pick any place on the planet where catholicism has flourished and you’ll find clerical abuse at any time there. You’re talking out your arse.
You guys are missing the whole point.
Let’s call it like it is.
Catholic Abuse has existed for many years, probably centuries. And?! So?
Corruption has existed as far back as the start of humanity. It has existed and it will continue to exist. Business as usual.
But what about our planet and what we are doing to it. Climate change and global warming are the SINGLE BIGGEST problem that humanity is facing. It can make us extinct. 2015 was the warmest year recorded in history. The shooting of The Revenant ran into problems and the crew had to move to the South Pole just to finish shooting. The story of the filming of the film is a story about what humanity is doing to our natural habitat. We are slowly destroying it. You ask why are these remote locations so beautiful and gorgeous? Because they are still untouched by humanity, that’s why! You guys are blind but you will see a month from now. Hey, I am calling it first… 🙂
Global Warming is a conspiracy theory. I’m from Minnesota. Call me up in the dead of February and convince me it’s getting hotter around the world. My snow tires will laugh at you.
So what’s the message the Academy sent to the world last year with BIRDMAN? “The world is in danger because of all the superhero movies”?
What??? The Revenant takes places in the 1800s and deals with Frontiersman and Native Americans. Not to mention a confusing plot regarding DiCaprio being the father of a Native American, but then having his crew violently attached by the same people. It was a big mess!
*Attacked
Ugh I hated reading this but you might be right! Last year my favorite movie was Nightcrawler and I was very comfortable that it would get a couple nominations and most likely Best Actor. It got none! Certainly this can’t happen again, can it?
That’s one of many reasons I hated last year. I hate seeing it come on TV. .oh what could of been right?
Sicario/Ex Machina will be the Nightcrawlers of this year
Nightcrawler did get in for Screenplay. Cold comfort given the Gyllenhaal snub.
Shit. I forgot they did that last year. Last year was so boring it is glossed over in my mind.
Thank you, Sasha for being Brave and Seeing The Light before
anyone else!! The Revenant could very well win Best Picture. It is the most
epic in scope, it has an all-important environmental message amidst Global
Change. It is driven by the Best Actor Performance and audiences are
responding. Projections are for $35+ Million Opening Weekend.
The Academy will bypass both Spotlight and The Big Short by
washing their hands and giving them both Original and Adapted Screenplay
Oscars. The Revenant will win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best
Cinematography. Mad Max Fury Road will walk away with 6 Oscars but no Best
Picture of Best Director Nominations.
And the BIGGEST thing – the reason why The Revenant will win
the PGA – I saw the movie again yesterday and I stayed for the whole Closing
Credits – at the very end – it says. “The Making of This Film contributed to
the creation of 15,000 jobs”..
There you go!
Preach!I am feeling the same way too..
You are being almost as ridiculous as the movie.
i like your pov i too want the movie to win deservedly so those prizes but realistically it will probably get actor and cinematography
Yeah, like Academy members stick around for the whole of the closing credits. Ask them what inspired them about the closing credits of 12 Years a Slave when they didn’t watch it to vote for it as Best Picture.
I got this feeling a couple of days ago, and then I heard everyone else who’d been agreeing with my new opinion for weeks, and those who’ve started to come around too. I guess I just hadn’t believed it could come true – Mad Max is just so, so, so not the Academy’s type of thing. I figured it was too big to fail, that it’d be able to command support no matter where, no matter what the competition, that it was one of those pre-ordained sure things. But, with the clarity that the recent Carol and Mad Max misses have provided me, I’m now convinced that it just will not make the cut.
If Carol and Mad Max don’t miss, I think I’ve prepared myself for the disappointment now, so I likely won’t bail on this whole thing as I’d once considered. But it’d be a bummer on the same level as the collective Selma snub last year.
I’m so ready for this season to suck some major ass. Fuck you, Academy, in advance.
Do what I do Paddy, passionately follow the season at arm’s length, predict the disappointments, and be only moderately perturbed – but never forget the movies you love.
Excellently said! I do the exact same thing – although certain disappointments still take me by surprise, and then it sucks… but that’s once, maybe twice, a year…
Right. I’ll feel disappointment if, say, Saoirse or Brie or Alicia don’t get in. Devastated in fact. But unlikely and I’ll get over it.
If Alicia gets in for Testament of Youth I’ll faint, then awake with a new respect for AMPAS. No, I have not had a drink.
🙂 I’d have that reaction if Daisy Ridley somehow got in for Best Actress… (to pick something that’s just about as unlikely) Not that many agree with me, of course.
I’ll be watching Testament of Youth soon. It’s on my list. I might have watched it today (it was among the primary options) had a serious, deal-breaking toothache not reared its ugly head a few hours ago…
I’d actually prefer Daisy Ridley getting nominated for lead actor over the actual film nominated for Best Picture, to be honest.
I know. 🙂 I, for one, would prefer the BP nomination, because it would, indirectly recognize that Daisy did a good job as well (since she’s the lead), whereas, in the other scenario, you could take it to mean she was great, but the movie, overall, wasn’t. Not that I’d think those things, either way. But that’s what they (the voters) would be ‘saying’ by doing that.
Plus they generally don’t have the balls to make those kind of calls. Shame.
Yeah, I definitely don’t expect it, like I said… 🙁
are we really discussing the chance of Daisy Ridley being nom’d for ANYTHING, for Star Wars?
Like, really? Not even Boyega – who was the best, to my taste – deserves awards talk.
Maybe Adam Driver and Carrie Fisher, for the Razzies?
Ouch. Hope that tooth ache takes a hike. As for Daisy Ridley, that’d be a bold move. I liked her a lot in SW, there was a real performance there, but not top 5 of the year. Imagine the uproar – that’d worse than tooth ache for many.
🙂 I’m better now. I know what it is – I’ve just had to postpone my dentist’s appointment, which is why it’s happening. It passes, but it takes a few hours/days and it’s very debilitating…
Yeah, you’re right – the backlash would be fierce… Still, better that than no recognition! (I do think it’s top 5, especially after my second viewing – I had some doubts before -, because, as I’ve said, I’m not a fan of Blanchett in Carol; now, with Mara AND Vikander in the proper category, and Theron nominated… maybe even then I might leave Larson out, because I’m not as crazy about her performance as others are… but there’s Blunt as well… it’s a tougher call, but Daisy is still close, at the very least, for me, even in that case.)
I meant shocking for the Academy, my own top 5 could have Daisy easily but like you say there are so many great lead roles this year – the Carol girls, the two Vikander roles, Brie, Saoirse, Maggie, Charlotte, and my own personal 5 soul likely include Elisabeth Moss for Queen of Earth. Expanding to 10!!!
🙂 Oh yeah, definitely…
But I have tiny T-Rex arms.
Isn’t it like watching a match where you support no one?
A match between 50+ teams? We’ll all never ever make the same choices as Academy voters, and we all have our favorites. Putting too much emotional support on the hope they’ll agree with us is something I like to detach myself from.
I didn’t think for a moment that Mad Max would be nominated for anything major until it started cleaning up in the critics’ awards and I started to believe. And really, I think it’ll still make the Best Picture field, though it’s clearly not going to win.