[quote_colored name=”” icon_quote=”no”]FYI – I reserve the right to change a prediction or two before the final. Some shorts still need to be seen[/quote_colored]
This is a year where predicting the Oscars seems almost impossible. Category by category there is a hovering mystery, with no sure bets, no definitive frontrunners really, and the potential for surprises, contradictions and stat busting. The best films this year have a current of truth to them — truth finding its way out. Truth about the Catholic Church. Truth about Wall Street corruption. Truth about mankind’s legacy. Truth about currents of paranoia that ran through our culture in the 1950s that have come roaring back today. Truth about one’s sexual identity. Truth about the pure relationship between a mother and child, no matter what the circumstances. Truth about the spirit of children made to suffer in war. Truth about the impact of the hip hop movement on the black rights movement and the music industry. Truth about the future. Truth about the past. Truth about the ugliness. Truth about the beauty. Finally, truth about the capacity for hope in unity, not division, and how investment in science is the only way to save humanity going forward. It’s all here in this year’s slate of potential nominees.
The Best Picture race is clearly dominated by about seven movies, with a few stragglers floating around the edges. We know which films those are.
Let’s get into it, shall we?
Since the Academy expanded to more than 5 Best Picture nominees, there has only been one film that came out of nowhere to get an Oscar nomination and that was Selma. It had a lot of publicity heading into voting, however. Most films don’t get that kind of heat, so we’re probably not looking at any kind of advocacy voting to help salvage the Academy’s reputation again this year. What gets in for number 9, that isn’t on the Producers Guild list, will likely be a film that Academy members feel passionately enough about to put it at number one but doesn’t have enough corresponding branch nominations, which is why it hasn’t show up at the guilds. Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close, Tree of Life, Philomena, Dallas Buyers Club, Amour and last year’s Selma were all films that popped up in the 11th hour that couldn’t really be predicted. Some of them showed up at BAFTA (Philomena), some showed at SAG Awards ensemble only (Dallas Buyers Club), some showed up almost nowhere (Tree of Life).
Since Oscar expanded the field, in all years except 2011, every DGA nominees has got in with the Academy. In almost every year except 2013, 7 out 10 of the PGA films got in.
This is a complicated year for sure. Room is a big threat to make it in but I’m already including Carol off the PGA. I’m sticking with the rule that at most 7 out of the PGA’s slate have gotten in (since Oscar changed its rules back to five nomination slots, 2009 till now). 6 one year, but not more than 7. I am choosing Carol (predictable) and Beasts of No Nation (unpredictable) because on the 100 to 1 chance it gets in I want to have been among those who predicted it. I will probably be wrong so don’t you be like me.
Other surprise nominees that might take that last slot include: Steve Jobs, Room, Inside Out and The Force Awakens, Sicario.
Best Picture
- The Big Short (SAG, ACE, WGA, DGA, PGA, BAFTA)
- Spotlight (SAG, WGA, DGA, PGA, BAFTA)
- The Revenant (ACE, DGA, PGA, BAFTA)
- The Martian (ACE, WGA, DGA, PGA)
- Mad Max: Fury Road (ACE, DGA, PGA) Now – we have up to four, in an impossible year, five more choices.
- Bridge of Spies (ACE, WGA, PGA, BAFTA)
- Carol (WGA, BAFTA) That leaves us with two or three more. I’m going with:
- Straight Outta Compton (SAG, WGA, PGA)
- Beasts of No Nation (SAG)
- Brooklyn (PGA)
- Alt. Steve Jobs, Room, Inside Out and The Force Awakens, Sicario
Best Actor
Best Actor looks (still) like Leo’s to lose, sealed up by the strength of The Revenant’s position in the race, hitting almost every guild and doing surprisingly well at the box office. While its total awards take is yet unclear, its strength so far, coupled with Leo’s general popularity seems unstoppable. He will likely win the SAG Award (his biggest challenger, Matt Damon is not nominated). I had thought that Bryan Cranston could overtake him but then I saw Trumbo and I personally don’t think this is going to be Cranston’s Oscar win (though never say never). The SAG rule is, generally speaking, minus one name. Choosing who gets dumped and who gets in is the tricky part.
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (SAG/GLOBE/BAFTA)
- Matt Damon, The Martian (GLOBE/BAFTA)
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (SAG/GLOBE/BAFTA)
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (SAG/GLOBE/BAFTA)
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (SAG/GLOBE/BAFTA)
- ALT. Johnny Depp, Black Mass/Steve Carell, The Big Short
Best Actress
The same basic rule seems to apply for Best Actress, though sometimes two names are left off. Usually one. I’m adding Alicia Vikander, because I think she will get in both categories. I could really make my odds better here by putting Vikander in both categories with the Danish Girl but I think the strength of her performances in both films — coupled with the full frontal nudity in Ex Machina and its PGA nomination – puts her strongly in the running there, too. But if you want to get a better guarantee on a higher score, put her in both categories with Danish Girl – you are going to lose one but you will also gain one for sure. The reason I have her in this category is that I don’t feel any other actress pushing her out at the moment.
- Brie Larson, Room (GLOBE/SAG/BAFTA)
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (GLOBE/SAG/BAFTA)
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (GLOBE/BAFTA)
- Cate Blanchett, Carol (GLOBE/SAG/BAFTA)
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (GLOBE/SAG/BAFTA)
- ALT. Charlotte Rampling 45 Years
Supporting Actor
This is the hardest category because it may this year be ruled by sentiment. I finally had to let go of Paul Dano, though I still hope he gets in. Without his performance being attached to a film with Best Picture heat, it’s hard to imagine him getting in. The Spotlight duo presents problems for the voters. They would have to rally behind one or the other — and Keaton’s popularity vs. Ruffalo’s more noticeable performance presents a challenge. Of the two, Ruffalo is likely the one that gets in.
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
- Jacob Tremblay, Room
- Alt. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight or Michael Keaton, Spotlight, Paul Dano, Love & Mercy, Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Supporting Actress
This is a toss-up for that final slot between Helen Mirren and Rachel McAdams. I’m choosing Mirren because she is so popular with actors she got three SAG nominations. I also remember when Mila Kunis got a SAG Awards nod for Black Swan but then not an Oscar nomination. FUN FACT: Marcia Gay Harden is the only Oscar winner in this category not to have a prerequisite SAG nomination.
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
- Helen Mirren, Trumbo
- ALT. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight, Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Director
This is yet another wide open category. It is extremely rare for a director to win without an ACE nomination. It’s just never happens. Even when Driving Miss Daisy won in 1989 without an ACE nod, Bruce Beresford didn’t have a DGA or Oscar nomination so the issue was moot. We could still be looking at a split year with Spotlight taking Best Picture and someone else taking director but we don’t know who that could be yet. We have lots of contenders, of course. Inarritu could join a very elite list of directors who won back to back – Joseph L. Mankiewicz for Letter to Three Wives and All About Eve, and John Ford for The Grapes of Wrath and How Green was my Valley; in both cases, however, that director won Best Picture, too, the second time. That’s sort of the same idea behind actresses who have won twice — when they win a second time it’s because they are also winning for Best Picture: Million Dollar Baby, Silence of the Lambs. Thus, I am not confident that The Revenant has that kind of stuff. It would literally have to be the first film in history to win Picture and Director back to back — beating John Ford, Steven Spielberg, Ang Lee, etc. I’m sure it has to happen some time — but maybe if the movie winning was something like Titanic.
Either way, I guess we’re still looking at a non-split year with Spotlight/Tom McCarthy (no ACE nom, no BAFTA nod for director), The Big Short/Adam McKay (kind of a fish out of water a bit, considering, but has the right stuff for sure), Ridley Scott/The Martian if (1) the studio backs The Martian over The Revenant (have a feeling they won’t) and (2) it lacks any SAG noms, and also lacks a BAFTA for Best Picture, which puts it in the long shot category. There are two possible Best Directors who could get it — Todd Haynes for Carol and Steven Spielberg for Bridge of Spies. Usually the DGA misses one. Predicting which one is the tough part. I will keep the DGA five because I’ll probably only miss one. If I try to guess who gets dumped I might be wrong and get more than one wrong.
- Adam McKay, The Big Short
- Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
- Ridley Scott, The Martian
- ALT. Todd Haynes, Carol, Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Original Screenplay
- Spotlight, Tom McCarthy
- Inside Out
- Bridge of Spies, Matt Charman
- Straight Outta Compton
- The Hateful Eight
- ALT. Ex Machina, Alex Garland, Trainwreck, Amy Schumer
I don’t have confidence in Inside Out getting in. None at all. But I’m going with the herd on this one.
Adapted Screenplay
- Adam McKay, The Big Short
- The Martian, Drew Godard
- Steve Jobs, Aaron Sorkin
- Brooklyn, Nick Hornby
- The Revenant, Alejandro G. Inarritu, Mark L. Smith
- Alt. Room, Emma Donoghue, Phyllis Nagy, Carol
I’m going to be hateful about this one because it’s just like them to shut out the women, isn’t it? I can’t decide between Carol or Room, and I also see the other five as stronger in terms of the race overall. I could swap Carol for Brooklyn but it’s hard for me to really bet against Nick Hornby.
Editing
- The Big Short
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- Spotlight
- The Martian
- Alt. Bridge of Spies
I suspect you’ll see how much the branch loves Spotlight overall if it lands this nomination. I’m betting on it because Oscar ballots were turned in so early and the Academy is likely to follow the frontrunner. But we’ll see.
Cinematography
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- Carol
- Sicario
- Bridge of Spies
- Alt. Hateful Eight
Production Design
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Danish Girl
- Bridge of Spies
- The Martian
- The Force Awakens
- Alt. Hateful Eight
It kills me to dump Carol for this. I really think it’s getting in but why didn’t the guild nominate it? I wanted to dump The Danish Girl but in the end, after looking at Kris Tapley’s predictions, I changed it.
Sound Mixing
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- The Revenant
- Straight Outta Compton
- The Martian
Sound Editing
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Inside Out
- The Martian
- The Revenant
Costume Design
- Carol
- Cinderella
- The Danish Girl
- Crimson Peak
- Brooklyn
- Alt. Mad Max: Fury Road
Original Score
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Spotlight
- Carol
- Bridge of Spies
- ALT. The Hateful Eight
Best Song
- “Til It Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
- “See You Again,” Furious 7
- “Simple Song 3,” Youth
- “Writings on the Wall,” Spectre
- “Fighting Stronger,” Creed
Foreign Language Feature
- Son of Saul
- Mustang
- Labyrinth of Lies
- Brand New Testament
- Theeb
Documentary Feature
- Amy
- The Look of Silence
- Listen to Me Marlon
- Best of Enemies
- Heart of a Dog
- Alt. Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
Animated feature
- Inside Out
- Anomalisa
- The Peanuts Movie
- The Good Dinosaur
- Shaun the Sheep
Visual Effects
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Force Awakens
- The Walk
- The Martian
- The Revenant
Live Action Short
- Shok
- Stutterer
- Everything will be Okay
- Day One
- Ave Maria
Documentary Short
I had the chance to watch a few of these and no film has moved me more than Chau Beyond the Lines — about a young Vietnamese artist disabled from the after effects of Agent Orange. I really hope it gets in. The other incredibly moving film was The Testimony — about women raped with impunity in the Congo.
- Chau Beyond the Lines
- The Tesimony
- The Last Day of Freedom
- Claude Lanzmann: Specters of the Shoah
- A Girl in the River
Animated Short
This is a tough one to call because I haven’t watched any of them except Sanjay. So I’m flying blind here.
- Sanjays Super Team
- World of Tomorrow
- Prologue
- If I Was a God
- Bear Story
Tally
The Big Short, Spotlight – 5 nominations
Carol – 6 nominations
The Revenant, Mad Max, The Martian – 9 nominations
Finally, there’s a pretty good chance I will not win the predicting contest at Gold Derby this year. I’ve only won it once and that was last year. I would love to be the champ again but alas, I don’t think it’s happening.
Either way, good luck! I’m sure we’re in for some major surprises tomorrow AM.
I’ll just link y’all to mine cos I know that’s all you’ve even come here for anyway: http://screenonscreen.blogspot.co.uk/2016/01/for-official-record-here-are-my-final.html
Love that you have Inside Out for picture, score and screenplay.! 😉 that’s how it should be. I also think it’ll get 5 nominations including sound editing and animated.
I think your predictions are spot on this year (thought I am clueless on the shorts / docs category) but I would put Charlotte Rampling in for 45 Years and JLaw as the alternate nom;
Also, with the strength of this years movies (my favorite year since Life of Pi/Zero Dark Thirty/Argo) I am guessing at least 9 nominations in the Best Picture category
I sure hope Inside Out gets in for BP…
Wasn’t gonna predict the nominees but what the hell. Here goes…
Oscar predictions.
Best Picture:
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Revenant
The Martian
Mad Max
Carol
Straight Outta Compton
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Inside Out
Alt. Ex-Machina or Sicario
Best Director:
Ridley Scott
George Miller
Alejandro G. inarritu
Tom Mcarthy
Adam Mckay
Alt. Todd Haynes
Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio
Steve Carrell
Michael Fassbender
Eddie Redmayne
Bryan Cranston
Best Actress:
Brie Larson
Care Blanchett
Jennifer Lawrence
Saoirse Ronan
Alicia Vikander
Best Supp Actor:
Mark Rylance
Mark Ruffalo
Christian Bale
Michael Shannon
Sylvester Stallone
Best Supp Actress:
Rooney Mara
Kate Winslet
Jennifer Jason Leigh
Alicia Vikander
Rachel McAdams
Alt.Kristen Stewart
I initially have been predicting Ridley not to get in and Haynes instead but I decided to change it …I may regret that
Charlotte Rampling in “45 Years” would really make my morning but I agree with Sasha’s prediction for best actress…what an incredible performance…I guess she could still hope for a lifetime achievement award…*total hopelessness*
Actor:
What I predict: DiCaprio,Damon,Fassbender,Cranston,Redmayne
What I’d prefer: Fassbender,DiCaprio,McKellen,Caine,Frederick Lau(Victoria)
Actress:
Predictions: Larson,Ronan,Blanchett,Lawrence,Rampling
Preferences: Danner,Ronan,Larson,Mulligan(Suffragette),Lola Kirke(Mistress America)
(ultra competitive field means I had to leave out Mya Taylor, outstanding in “Tangerine”;I consider
it a lead rather than supporting, otherwise she’d replace my #5 in supporting)
Supporting Actor:
Predictions: Rylance,Stallone,Bale,Ruffalo,Hardy
Preferences: Hoult,Hardy,Segel,Peter Serafinovicz(Spy),James Marsden(The D Train)
Supporting Actress:
Predictions: Winslet,Mara,Leigh,McAdams,Mirren
Preferences: Mickey O’Hagan(Tangerine),Winslet,Fonda,Walters,Banks
I’d love to see some Supporting Actress mayhem, just completely random choices. I struggle to see Vikander getting in for Ex Machina, I think that will get kicked.
I’m not overly fussed with the Best Picture stragglers this year, Sicario is the only one in that zone which I’m particularly passionate about. As long as MMFR is still alive in the Pic/Director race, I’ll be glad. Dano has also had some mild buzz a few times in his career now, so I think he deserves to finally get one.
At the end of the day, it feels like one of those mediocre Oscar years down the track that a decent prestige drama would easily sweep by default, but that film ain’t here.
Sicario is brilliant, I don’t know why it’s not doing better in awards season. Let’s hope it lands a BP nom but I think it will miss out
this is defintely not a mediocre year.. any of the top 6 movies this year could have beaten The Artist / The King’s Speech to a pulp (my opinion).. excited! Unless Spotlight gets an Editing nom (sealing the deal, I think, for a BP win), its a very very exciting prospect for nomination mayhem today!
Maybe the Artist and The King ‘s Speech but they are not better than Hugo or The Social Network…
Jennifer Lawrence was not nominated for BAFTA or SAG!
Happy Oscars Everyone!
I’m predicting:
Best Picture
The Big Short
Spotlight
The Revenant
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
Straight Outta Compton
Brooklyn
Room
Best Director: Same as DGA
Best Actor: Depp is In, Damon is Out
Best Actress: J Lawrence makes it in with Alicia Vikander for Danish Girl
Supporting Actor: Rylance, Elba, Stallone, Bale and Ruffalo
Supporting Actress: Mara, Winslet, Leigh, Vikander(Ex), McAdams
But…I know nothing! I wasn’t in love with Carol so I wouldn’t mind it missing in Best Picture. I loved ROOM so I hope it pulls through. I’d be happy with a multitude of possibilities this year though. I’d only really be pissed if:
a) George Miller isn’t nom’d for Best Director
b) Room is only nom’d for Best Actress
Am gonna go out on a limb and predict some if not all the populist contenders make it. SOC,Martian etc etc. Oscars would be an elitist snoozefest otherwise on par with last years.
The best thing when this awars season ends and all ( tomorrow morning if my faves do not make it) will be not having to see that hideous Christian Bale face again.
i will f%ck your mother and cum on her ugly face…how do u like that mofo….i will cut you sister(or your cousin) pu$$y and tear it apart..your face is most ugly and more importantly you heart is ugliest sob….i will f$$k your girlfriend and not call her and let her cry and die..go to hell basta$d
lol
nice try milli sob
I have to say if EW’s final predictions for Best Picture are right, I will be thrilled:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
What I will be thrilled with tomorrow:
Brooklyn, Carol and Sicario in Best Picture. Two of three would even be fine.
Haynes in for director
Villenueve in for director
Julie Waters for supporting actress
None of those are gonna happen I don’t think…but I can hope
NGNG:
Benecio Del Toro in for Sicario (I cannot believe you don’t even have him listed as an Alt. Sasha)
No Bridge of Spies in Best Picture
McKay or McCarthy miss out on director
I think you are right about Benecio Del Toro (I think it will be Bale/Del Toro/Rylance/Shannon/Stallone) and either McKay or McCarthy missing.
agreed!
My predicted Best Picture lineup:
The Martian
Mad Max
The Revenant
Spotlight
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
Bridge of Spies
_______________
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton
I don’t see Tremblay getting in at all without it hitting Best Pic and some other categories showing lots of love. Not happening.
I could very likely be wrong, but I’m gonna go ahead and predict that Adam McKay doesn’t make it in for Best Director. That branch tends to be pretty elitist and high brow, so there may be enough snobby members in there who will see him as the “Talladega Nights guy” and not vote for him as a result. Again, I could be totally wrong, but these are my predictions:
Todd Haynes – “Carol”
George Miller – “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Ridley Scott – “The Martian”
Alejandro G. Inarritu – “The Revenant”
Laszlo Nemes – “Son of Saul”
Alternates: Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), and Adam McKay (The Big Short). Spielberg could maybe be a potential spoiler as well, but I have my doubts there.
The only one who is really safe, IMO, is Inarritu. I worry that Miller will get the ‘Nolan treatment’ but the DGA nod and LAFCA win are keeping me optimistic. Hoping for the best!
My Best Picture predictions:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
—
My Best Director predictions:
McCay – The Big Short
Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Scott – The Martian
Iñárritu – The Revenant
McCarthy – Spotlight
Sasha – Lawrence wasn’t nominated by SAG or BAFTA; I will be 0% surprised if she isn’t nominated. Joy is tanking in the awards season; only the Globes threw her a bone.
Re: the Marcia Gay Harden anomaly as the only Supporting actress Oscar winner not to be nominated by SAG —- she was listed on the SAG ballot that year as a Lead Actress for Pollock, so could not get nominated in the supporting category. Same thing happened 2 years later with Maryl Streep in Adaptation. That performance as well as her performance in The Hours were both listed separately on the SAG nominating ballot as Lead Actress. She cancelled herself out with SAG that year but got a supporting Academy nomination.
I’m just pulling for recognition for Room, Brooklyn, and Bridge of Spies.
I want to see nominations spread out rather than a few movies like The Revenant just totally dominating nomination counts.
NGNG:
1) Charlize Theron for Best Actress
2) No Rooney Mara nomination (category fraud causes confusion)
3) Tom Hanks for Best Actor
Great picks! I have very similar ones except I have Sicario instead of Beasts. The one thing we can be guaranteed is there will be surprises. I’m picking Rampling and Dano as two of the possible ones
Good Noms, Sasha!!!
My NGNG remains Tom Hanks.
Bridge of Spies is loved by the guilds, sans DGA.
And I think he can surprise (a la Cotillard with no industry precursors last year).
The acting branch may want to give him a nom for his miss with Capt. Phillips.
That 5th slot is shaky and, though it’s a longgggggg shot … I could see it happening 🙂
An idea: A countdown timer on the front page. So much anticipation!!
In terms of hopes, when it comes to the animation categories, I want Peanuts to at least get nominated in the Animated Feature category (it’s one of my favorite films of the year), and World of Tomorrow in Animated Short (Don Hertzfeldt is seriously due for an Oscar).
It’s my hope that The Danish Girl gets snubbed outright tomorrow. Yes, Vikander was good, but I much prefer her performance in Ex-Machina. I found The Danish Girl to be overwrought melodrama that is nothing more than bait. It DIDN’T work on so many levels! This would open up some races to much more deserving nominees!
Also, Sasha, I love your prediction for MMFR for original score – it was the most compelling score of the year and I love that it was incorporated into the Mad Max universe to boot! I’m surprised that it hasn’t been popping up on more prediction lists!
The score for MMFR really is the most memorable for me, as well
I rushed home from the theater after seeing MMFR and bought the extended version of the movie’s score. Junkie XL delivered in spades!
I’ll believe Alicia Vikander, a complete nobody, getting a double Oscar noms when I see it. Tom Hanks couldn’t do it in 2013, and he’s Tom Hanks. Neither of her films are as strong as Captain Phillips.
I can’t figure out why Nicholas Hoult is completely forgotten in the conversation on Best Supporting actor. He was the best thing in Fury Road if you ask me. He gave that movie a heart.
Somewhere in a parallel universe Mad Max would be fully appreciated with a sweep of wins and nominations.
He’s def in my top 10, close to 5
he did a great job but was never ever talked about in terms of the awards race
That’s how I felt about Miles Teller last year. J.K. Simmons was picking up awards left and right, but didn’t anyone notice Teller? He was fantastic, but couldn’t buy himself a nomination anywhere!
Miles Teller was brilliant. I do not usually sympathise with him but he said it is impossible for males below 30 to even be Oscar nominated nowadays and i agree wholeheartedly. Hoult , Cohen and specially MBJ should have been in Oscar talks otherwise.
He was absolutely fantastic. But if Theron in all her iconic Furiosa is having trouble I can see why he is not even in talks.
I love Charlize very much, but to be honest, Furiosa was not one of her best. Barely spoke and just did straight-forward badassery. I can see why she hasn’t been talked about much even though this film is so talked about. I don’t understand why not Hoult though. I think he did more acting work than all of them combined and gave the film its humanity, imo.
I am not saying it was Charlize’s best. I am simply saying Furiosa is iconic. More so than Nux surely. I am very very bitter about how bad Mad Max seems to be doing in terms of actual Oscars steam and would literally cry tears of Joy if Hoult is nominated. But he won’t be and I have accepted that.
I can’t see revenant for screenplay, if pops up there it could be sweeping
Remember these noms were voted for before Revenant opened
It deserves a nomination, but many people judge screenplays by their dialogue, & ”Revenant” has so little.
they gave screeners and stuff…
Well here’s how I’m rooting although I wouldn’t be surprised if I got completely skunked. I still really hope Johnny Depp makes it somehow. I really thought he’d be the breakaway favorite because BLACK MASS came out early but now I guess it’s too far into the past for most people. I’m not saying it’s a universally loved performance but neither is Leo in THE REVENANT. I’ll always be rooting for Benicio Del Toro even if I think the best supporting performances I’ve seen this year were from Jason Mitchell and Peter Sarsgaard. Having said that I still don’t actually think Benicio was supporting in SICARIO and ditto that for Christian Bale in THE BIG SHORT. He’s another of my favorites and I thought he and Carrell were co-lead. I’ll be happy for Stallone or Ford even, if they got in. They’re extended family as far as I’m concerned. I have no real rooting interests in the female actor categories. Most of their movies haven’t played here. Otherwise, they’re all okay. Regardless of what I think the best movie is this year, I’m rooting for Sir Ridley Scott all the way. And BP well, there’s plenty of good ones so the only thing that chaps my ass is that BRIDGE OF SPIES seems to be a given. I’ve said it enough but I really don’t think it’s stands up in a year this good. Otherwise, if my favorites get in, they’ll probably knock out other people’s favorites so I really don’t want any of us to be sad.
IMO:
— Sasha — your continued clinging to the Beasts of No Nation sinking ship is cute, but so wrong. It is not being nominated. No one cares about that movie. The SAG nom is a total aberration.
— Vikander is not being nominated for Ex Machina.
— I was convinced a few months ago that Damon would not be nommed for The Martian, but it’s looking like I was wrong. I was also convinced that Cranston would upset Leo but this looks less likely now.
— If Carol is snubbed for BP AND BD, there will be hell to pay.
— TFA is not getting nommed for BP. MMFR is more important as a film, and The Martian is more popular (I think, just my theory) across a large cross section of the Academy, whereas TFA is LOVED but by a small segment. (Yeah, I know it is breaking box office records, but I think The Martian is more the kind of film that the members of the Academy would like, and I don’t think three sci-fi-ish movies are gonna get in.)
—
“Sasha — your continued clinging to the Beasts of No Nation sinking ship is cute, but so wrong. It is not being nominated. No one cares about that movie. The SAG nom is a total aberration.”
1) nobody likes a know it all. You have no fucking clue. You’re right that the chances of it not getting in are high – it’s nearly impossible. But could you have predicted it got into SAG? Could you – in all of your infinite wisdom – have predicted Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to get in?
2) Every pundit should allow themselves one true longshot prediction. I’m playing it mostly safe here. I’d rather be wrong on a long shot that is true to what I hope will happen than a mediocre go with the flow prediction just so assholes like you don’t come in and call me “cute” for that prediction. Would you call it “cute” if any one else had predicted it? Like a guy? Like Feinberg or Tapley? Some of their predictions are long shots too – are they “Cute”?
I actually think Beasts of no nation is not so much of a long shot. Its craft and edginess (although very different movies obviously), remind me of Beasts (even the tittle) of the Southern Wild which was embraced by AMPAS.
Yes! Couldn’t agree more. The direction, acting, cinematography and screenplay for Beasts of No Nation are some of the finest of 2015. It’s an impressive film all round. Why it’s not being talked about more confuses me. I haven’t seen Room yet, but my pick for ‘young actor of the year’ easily goes to Abraham Attah who should really get a Best Actor nom.
I honestly think it’s possible the directors branch will nominate Fukunaga. A pleasant surprise like Meirelles getting nominated for City of God.
Hey Sasha — I honestly was not trying to be offensive and I’m truly sorry if I offended you. I think it is a stretch to jump to the conclusion that I said what I did because you are a woman. I was actually trying just to be silly and teasing in how I phrased it — in a kind of “you are sooooo wrong” way — but I get how that did not come across to the reader. I’ve heard you on your talks with Tom O’Neill and others and, believe me, I admire how forceful and eloquent you are in advocating your views.
Of course you are entitled to a long shot prediction and there will likely be SOME surprises this morning — there always are. But long shot predictions are also the ones that are most likely to be challenged by people. BONN was a fine film, but I think being a Netflix production on a difficult subject with no obvious box office appeal, it is a long shot for a BP nom. But absolutely, I could be wrong!!!!
I actually tried to acknowledge in my post how wrong I MYSELF have been in the past few months, when I explicitly said I have under-estimated Damon and over-estimated Cranston , and also when I said “I think, just my theory” about TFA not being nommed.
Hope that explains things a bit. Again, sorry!
Can’t decide if I’m going to put The Danish Girl or Beasts of No Nation in my bp predictions! Spotlight, Carol, Mad Max, The Revenant, The Martian, The Big Short, Room, Bridge of Spies & then I’ll throw in Danish or Beats of No Nation, & idk if I’m smart by not including The Force Awakens, or will feel like the dumbest predictor ever tomorrow for not including it, they really loved the movie!
*Beasts
I don’t know but but Room, Brooklyn, Beasts – those are the passion picks hovering in the background.
Yeah I agree, but I think Room is in, I think Brooklyn & Beasts are on shakier ground than Room! The SAG nod for Beasts makes me want to include it, & I think there were a lot of parties held for the film with tons of support also. And Danish looks so Oscary, plus Tom Hooper, I gotta include it lol
When are we gonna get your top 10 Sasha? I mean I know you dug The Martian, Spotlight, Mad Max, Carol, The Big Short(big time), but I was just wondering if we would get a final top 10 from you.
I feel like it’s too late now. I started writing one but never got to finish it.
Never too late!
I haven’t seen ”Son of Saul” yet, but I feel Nemes or Rohrig might surprise. Also, Fukunaga for ”Beasts.”
Nemes could definitely surprise.
The Revenant nor inarritu should be nominated There is a dozen better film .
I am not as big a fan of mad max as most people but it will have the most nominations
Agreed but I am not sure what I’m missing to make it higher.
Submitted my predictions but please note:
You did not have THE PROPHET as an option on the Animation Feature dropdown, nor did you have a write-in space, so I did a write-in for that title and category in a separate category (my only option, really, other than leaving a space blank, which I also did).
Shit. Sorry about that.
Here are mine: http://f—nobuttheresaposter.blogspot.com/2016/01/88th-academy-awards-predictions.html.
NGNG: Star Wars gets nominations in Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress (Ridley)
PREACH!
Everybody seems so confident about Alicia Vikander getting a double nomination but I’m still hesitant. I just don’t see it, hope I’m wrong.
Vikander getting in for Ex Machina and snub for Danish would be justice.
I see Vikander only getting a supporting nod, and only for Danish Girl (category fraud be damned). “Ex Machina” doesn’t seem like it would be the Academy’s cup of tea.
Nothing about her performance in Ex Machina even warrants talk of a nomination. I’m not sure why folks keep talking about it. I agree with you.
Oscar Isaac should be getting the nomination discussion talk IMO. Vikander was good, but not as good as Isaac.
FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Wednesday, January 13th – 2016
___________________________________________
BEST PICTURE
1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Carol
8. Straight Outta Compton
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Adam McKay, The Big Short
2. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Ridley Scott, The Martian
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Steve Carell, The Big Short
My big 500 bet at Goldderby is Carell manages to squeeze in over Damon. I think he is being watched by all the voters on screeners, and has a performance that’s much more passion-worthy then Matt’s passable but not challenging role. I probably am wrong, but when you’re one of the few right it’s worth the bragging rights.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Booklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
This is probably the lineup I kept coming back to. I think Vikander will gnar enough support to place her correctly in lead, thus bumping off Jennifer Lawrence. The ‘veteran Brit’ slot still remains a mystery, but my delusional brain refuses to drop Rampling even though Maggie Smith seems more and more likely. Helen Mirren and Sarah Silverman got SAG nominations but nothing else, and Lily Tomlin seems to have disappeared.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
4. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Taking Idris down might prove disastrous but I can’t figure out where to put Hardy and I see him riding the wave of Leo’s film to a nod ala Jonah Hill in 2013. This is the hardest category to call tomorrow and there are many guys waiting in the wings including Tremblay, Dano, Shannon and Keaton.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Vikander getting double nominations seemed probable but the fact that she went 0-2 at the GGs means the support isn’t as strong as we thought. I think she’s better positioned to score a nod for Danish Girl in lead, then as a robot in Ex Machina. But I would love to be wrong, as the final two slots in this category are underwhelming. Look out for surprises from the likes of Stewart or Allen.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Big Short
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. The Revenant
Look for movies that have the most support to show up here, including Leo’s film that might be limited on dialogue but we all know a screenplay is more then that. This is the hottest movie right now and I am betting voters go gaga for it. Carol seems tipsy but Far from Heaven earned a slot in 2002 here, despite no best director or picture mention. I don’t see three female driven movies making it at once, but Room and Brooklyn certainly are competitive.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Spotlight
2. The Hateful Eight
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Straight Outta Compton
5. Ex Machina
Many pundits have Inside Out pegged here, but I’m sadly betting it’s time has peaked and that we’ll get all live-action, including the creative writers behind the scifi premise in Ex Machina (it’s only nomination, often what happens with the writing categories; think Nightcrawler last year).
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Revenant
2. Carol
3. Sicario
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Bridge of Spies
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Martian
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Danish Girl
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
3. Brooklyn
4. The Danish Girl
5. Crimson Peak
BEST MAKEUP
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The 100 Year-Old Man
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Big Short
3. Sicario
4. The Revenant
5. The Martian
Spotlight would seem to be a wise move, but it’s not a very noticeable aesthetic in the movie.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Danish Girl
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Carol
BEST SONG
1. Furious 7
2. Spectre
3. Youth
4. The Hunting Ground
5. Ricki and the Flash
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Martian
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Jurassic World
5. The Walk
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Straight Outta Compton
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Inside Out
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Inside Out
2. The Good Dinosaur
3. Anomalisa
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. Minions
On the last slot, never better against a movie that made THAT much money.
I mean can we really have a conversation about how white these nominations will be Latino American African American Asian American really boils down to Idris Elba and Straight Outta Compton. With the backdrop being a year highlighted by the black lives matter movement, it’s only right that the nominations reflect how out of touch this industry is.
If it’s all-white again, that’s more comic material for Oscar host Chris Rock. (Alas, it’s not that funny.)
You don’t need Oscar nods to reflect how out of touch the industry is — not with a 94% white Academy.
Hopefully Benicio del Toro and/or Oscar Isaac can slide in
If precursors mean anything, Idris Elba has the best shot: He’s a SAG, BAFTA & Globe nominee.
It’s crazy. He seems like such a sure bet, and yet, he’s such a blind spot to me because I feel like not enough of AMPAS saw it. Also, his buzz was a few months ago. But yeah, I’m sure I’m DEAD wrong on all accounts.
These Oscars will be overwhelmingly white and overwhelmingly male and I hope it hurts their viewing like it did last year.
Stallone may fall in the same hole as Mickey Rourke and Bill Murray come oscars night. Two beloved actors who have one chance in life to win an oscar, and AMPAS fuck him in the ass.
But he would not be running against Sean Penn, so I guess that’s good!
I swear to all that is holy that if Stallone fails to get a nomination tomorrow I will never, never, EVER forgive the Academy (not that they would care but they’d have lost a very passionate Oscar follower and viewer – for life).
Given the quasi clusterfuck that is supporting actor I’m hoping hoping HOPING that Tom Hardy manages to sneak in. He’s amazing and had a great year overall. Not to mention how great he always is.
Problem with placing Stallone as frontrunner: No actor has was Best Supporting Actor Oscar while missing out on BOTH SAG and BAFTA since both awards existed simultaneously.
Interesting statistic. Do you know how long all the awards have existed simultaneously?
since 1995 (or 1994 by year of film release).
You’re right. It’s going to be tough for him. I guess statistics are there to be changed up every so often though.
It’s very possible that Bryan Cranston could be this year’s Jennifer Aniston (TV darling earning notices for good performance but gets the cold shoulder from the Oscars). However, Cranston does have that BAFTA nod.
Cranston was the sole ”Trumbo” nominee at BAFTA. That film probably will do better with the Hollywood crowd. Besides Cranston, there’s Mirren, adapted screenplay and maybe even a shot at Best Picture.
Seeing your predictions, and assuming you’re kinda pro in this matter, I think I f***ed up mine xDDD
Too late now. Can’t wait for tomorrow to find out!
Oh, yeah, my final, official BP nominations predictions:
1. Spotlight
2. The Big Short
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Brooklyn
8. Carol
9. Room
10. Sicario
NGNG: Still Steve Jobs.
I predict there will be 7 nominees – my top 7, if that’s the case.
For what it’s worth, Alicia Vikander was also full frontal in THE DANISH GIRL, however fleeting in the bedroom scene.
I love that you have Mad Max in score. I hope it makes it too. But I’m surprised that you have Hateful Eight as your alt. Isn’t it the front runner? It’s at least top 2 I’d say.
Lawrence didn’t get a SAG nom.
I kinda think that some animated movie will get into Best Song, because it seems to be almost a “rule” in this category. I bet in some Peanuts song, but maybe Anomalisa would get an nomination too.
I got Feels like Summer from Shaun the Sheep.
I’m afraid Vikander will cancell her out. Some voters can go for Ex Machina while others can go for Danish and put her on lead or supporting.
Feinberg has no clue, so just ignore him. He was picking FURIOUS 7 in visual effects yesterday. This film is not even on the short list
But he’s very good at the acting categories. And he’s predicting Tremblay, Del Toro and Shannon.
He has Fassbender as an alternate so I don’t know…
Feinberg is fucking with my predictions.
In alphabetical order:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Compton
Personally, I’d love to see Sicario, Beasts of No Nation or Ex Machina get in, but it’s probably not going to happen. Room, for some reason, fell off the radar, and I just have this gut feeling Carol’s in for a bittersweet morning as a snub for Picture. TFA doesn’t have the clout from the Big Three guilds, but it does have the box office clout of almost $800 million domestically. I don’t see how Oscar says no to that.
“I don’t see how Oscar says no to that.”
They will, sadly…
I love Tarantino but I don’t get the love for Hateful Eight at all. This is like last year when they for some reason nominated Inherent Vice for screenplay. I don’t get it.
Feinberg with Trembley in lead over Fassbender lol
I wish he would offer an explanation for that one
Stress? On his Twitter, Feinberg says his credit card was stolen & he just got a jury-duty notice! 😉
Which possible “snub” will cause the most outrage tomorrow if it ends up happening?
1. Mad Max not getting nominated for picture and/or director.
2. Straight Outta Compton not getting nominated for anything.
3. Carol not getting nominated in picture and/or director and/or actress/supporting actress.
4. Stallone not getting nominated for Supporting Actor.
5. Helen Mirren missing for Woman in Gold.
I just hope Mirren doesn’t get nominated for Woman in Gold, especially if it’s over Rampling
Most possible is by far Mirren for Woman in Gold, followed by Compton. Carol not getting an actress nom would be inconceivable. Mad Max missing either pic or director would be a travesty on par with Dark Knight
Edit: I thought you wrote “most possible snub”. Biggest outrage would be about equal between Mad Max and Carol not getting those noms. Then would be Compton, but I think that will be riding the coattails of the inevitable fact that there will likely be no nominees of color in the acting awards
I think MM missing would be a bigger one than TDK. Surely it won’t happen.
Yeah, true, Dark Knight was supposed to let movies like this get in. It should be nommed in a year of five, anyways
Yeah, Twitter would have a meltdown if Mad Max doesn’t get nominated. That would easily cause the most outrage. Straight Outta Compton missing would just mean a lot of “Oscars So White” stuff like last year. Hell, that might happen anyway if it’s only nomination is Best Picture.
Definitely bigger, and yet it might!
Stallone, from 1975 a GG winner in supporting is nominated
definitely 1
5 is a joke right?
Yes, 5 was a joke.
Number one is the only one i care about. It doesn’t need to win. But it NEEDS to get nominated.
Yes!!!!! It needs to be nominated. Please Lord hear our pleas.
I think Carol. Not just over here. Too many people expect Mad Max to get the shaft, and it’s so not an Academy movie… (I’m not saying it will. I’m saying people would get & accept the reasons behind it a lot more than for Carol.)
But Carol doesn’t have the momentum Mad Max has, so it will hurt a lot more if the latter is not included.
I know, but I’m just saying I think the actual backlash will be more muted in that case, though the internal outrage might be greater (which is still debatable).
I fear that in a year that so many films with strong guild or critics’ support star either women or people of color, we may well get a BP list of all male leads and overwhelmingly male ensembles. That’s a snub writ large.
God, imagine if both MM and Carol somehow missed the Best Picture field? I just wouldn’t bother watching the ceremony.
#1, I don’t want to imagine it.
Number one. Easily.
I watch Sicario yesterday, amazing movie, one of the best i seen this year. Seriuosly out of for the BP? I can’t believe
Still have yet to watch it unfortunately, but Benicio del Toro just doesn’t do it for me, I don’t know why it’s so hard for me to watch him on screen… still excited
I saw it yesterday and put Del Toro in my predictions.
Award-winning cinematic royalty Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, Titanic) will receive her second Oscar the same night Leonardo DiCaprio (Titanic, Revolutionary Road) wins his first! What a great time for movies, cinema, and flicks.
-Mothra
I thought this would be adorable… If (when) Leo wins this year he and Kate will have both won on their sixth nomination. Including Leo’s bp nod for WoWS of course.
Leo and Kate matched on Sunday, each winning their 3rd Globe.
Is that old Watermelons I see? Awesome. I prefer Mothra!
NGNG: Three 50 shades of grey’s songs get in
Not a lot of people are predicting Jacob Tremblay but I have a feeling that he is in. He’s been running the circuit, Room has passion behind it, and he is so cute and charming.
I stopped believing in the passion for Room after the PGA snub 🙁
I know PGA goes for more populist picks but that snub was so cruel to me.
I am also predicting Alicia Vikander is in for both!
NGNG Nominees: Theron and Hoult get acting noms for Mad Max, and Hardy gets in for Revenant
dream nom would be Charlize Theron!!
I don’t think so. Would be one of the most amazing and surprise nom ever
I have a feeling, we might be hearing her name tomorrow.
I put her on my gold derby!! Hehe! Let’s hope.
It’d be funny if Vikander got nominated for Ex-Machina and didn’t get nominated at all for Danish Girl.
There’s usually one acting nominee that didn’t get nominated at any of the precursors but gets nominated at the Oscars. Laura Dern last year being the most recent example. Looks like some are going with Rampling for that. Technically Keaton would qualify for that this year.
CHARLIZE!
CHARLIZE!
Charlize Theron.
Hey ! Wanted to share my predictions too with you all. Let’s see how we do tomorrow !
http://fenixpahedi.blogspot.com.es/2016/01/predictions-academy-awards.html
Forgot about make up and hair. So you can probably add another nomination for MM:FR and The Revenant. And if MM:FR also gets that costume design, then as per your prediction, it will end up with 11 nominations.
In that scenario, we can remember of a certain film who got a clean sweep at the oscars after also 11 noms.
Highly improbable but…. a guy can dream right!!!
Titanic?
The Lord of the Rings
That wasn’t a clean sweep dude. Think early 2000s and similar genre and mastery (as that of MM:FR not Titanic)!
Sasha, that’s such a creepy looking picture of Christian Bale atop.
When is the NGNG prediction post going up? With this hard-to-predict year, a lot of the ‘out there’ picks may have a good shot at coming true.
My Best Picture predictions: Mad Max, Spotlight, Revenant, Bridge Of Spies, Big Short, Martian are locks. I’ll predict that Carol, Brooklyn and Star Wars get the other three spots (with Room as the alternate/10th slot).
Oscar morning is going to be really tense for me! It is SO uncertain. Here are my predictions:
Actor: Carell, Damon, DiCaprio, Fassbender, Redmayne alt. Cranston
Actress: Blanchett, Larson, Lawrence, Rampling, Ronan alt. Mara/Vikander
Supporting Actor: Bale, Del Toro, Ruffalo, Rylance, Stallone alt. Hardy a la Jonah Hill in Wolf, our classic coat-tail nom
Supporting Actress: Leigh, Mara, McAdams, Vikander, Winslet
Director: I know DGA usually doesn’t match 5 for 5, but I’m going with the DGA 5.
Picture: Revenant, Spotlight, Big Short, The Martian, Bridge of Spies, Mad Max, Brooklyn, Straight Outta Compton alt. Sicario, Carol
I have to wait an extra 6 hours to get these noms because I’m at school, and we’re not supposed to get on non-educational sites. I want to see the nominations myself on video, then read all the comments in detail. I doubt I will have the self-control not to get on Yahoo.
My final predictions for Best Picture nominees:
1. The Revenant
2. MM:FR
3. Spotlight
4. The Big Short
5 The Martian
6. Carol
7. BOS
8. Inside Out
If 9. Brooklyn
If 10. SOC
To me Inside Out is a definite lock for Screenplay, how could it not? It’s brilliance!
Also, I’m surprised there is no mention of Score for Inside Out, to me it will also be in. Maybe it is just me but I find it so haunting (not sure it’s the right word).. like it gets under my skin and stirs my emotions.
It’s a great score, but there are so many this year…
I just checked and Anne Thompson does have it in her predictions so I’m happy with that 🙂
I think you are wrong about Revenant in screenplay. I would love to see this but it wont happen. And i just dont know why you think Inside Out can miss original?
And Ennio Morricone just won Golden Globe. He is not gonna miss score, is he?
I will stay much happy if the J-Law name really aren’t anounced tomorrow. I think that it will happen and the nominees will be: Larson, Ronan, Blanchett, Vikander and Rampling.
Hey guys do you remember your score from 2015? How many % you got right. I was right in 71%.
2015 was the easiest year ever to predict — there were so many locks. I got 21 out of 24, and believe me I am not boasting — i usually don’t do anywhere near that well.
I was 19-5. Before that I was 21-3 and 22-2 the Argo year.
Sasha, my dear, it always amazes me how, after 365 days of speculation, hopefulness, prognosticating, and throwing ones hands up in the air, you are able to boil it down to your picks. We who are about to die salute you. Congrats on another stellar year in film debating and tomorrow we shall see how it all plays out.
My predictions:
The Big Short
Spotlight
The Revenant
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
If 6: Bridge of Spies
If 7: Brooklyn
If 8: Carol
If 9: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
If 10: Inside Out
Sasha, I like how you incorporated statistics (more than any other year) to inform your predictions. Now, of course, this just happens to be the year that the pundits are saying they’re useless, but I think the punditry is somewhat in denial over their completely wrong-headed belief that ‘Spotlight’ is the inevitable BP winner.
Because you may update your predictions before the deadline, I would caution you in the documentary race. ‘Amy’, despite hitting the guilds, is not going to appeal to the male membership. Sure, it touches on the disastrous effects of our thirsty media culture, but it is ultimately about a young female pop star who drug overdosed. I do not see the branch going for it when there are “bigger” films (ie: war) that touch so many more lives. Netflix has a very good track record in the category, so maybe you could squeeze in ‘Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom’. Finally, I know you adore ‘Heart of a Dog’, but I cannot recall a weirder (respective to the branch’s taste) nominee in their history.
All the best in your predictions!
I sincerely hope you are right about Beasts and Elba and I hope Sicario and Ex Machina make for some surprises. A possible shame would be if Mad Max fell to genre bias and if Todd Haynes and co. continue on a downward spiral.
Expect the worst and you always get gravy.
I hope there will be 9 or 10 nominations again! And fingers crossed for McAdams, Stallone, Lawrence, DiCaprio (he is safe i guess), Inside Out, Carol, Brooklyn, Revenant!
I think INSIDE OUT gets in…. I’d switch that in for BEASTS. Otherwise I agree with your BP lineup.
Stick to your guts! That’s what matters