It’s all going down in the next few weeks – Producers Guild this weekend, SAG awards the following weekend, DGA awards the weekend after that. The train rolls along. We are headed into an industry season that is completely wide open in a way we haven’t seen before (or if we’ve seen it before, we haven’t yet connected the dots). The Producers Guild does tend to surprise and upend what Oscar pundits think the race will be about. Right now, we just don’t know a dang thang! Well, that’s not completely true. Here are the things we know almost for sure:
The Absolutelies
Leonardo DiCaprio is winning Best Actor
Brie Larson is winning Best Actress
Inside Out is winning Animated Feature
Original Screenplay will go to Spotlight
Visual Effects – Mad Max: Fury Road all the way
The “I Have No Fucking Idea, Wait for the Guilds”
Supporting Actress at SAG Award and Oscar are completely up in the air, but we’ll get to that.
Best Picture and Director are completely up in the air unless you rely on the stats.
The Probablies
Adapted Screenplay will probably go to The Big Short, because it almost always goes to a BP frontrunner, although there is competition there.
Supporting Actor will probably go to Sly Stallone, although Christian Bale for The Big Short and Tom Hardy for The Revenant are potential contenders.
Editing – It’s Mad Max vs. The Big Short
Production Design/Cinematography The Revenant vs. Mad Max
Costume Design Sandy Powell vs. Sandy Powell (Carol, Cinderella)
Sound and Sound Editing The Revenant vs. Mad Max
Score – Ennio Morricone probably wins a competitive Oscar (FINALLY!) for The Hateful Eight, with a wee bit of a push for John Williams who is celebrating his 50th nomination for Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
Documentary – Probably Amy, but The Look of Silence and Cartel Land and even What Happened Miss Simone and Winter on Fire all could upset the frontrunner
Foreign Language – Probably Son of Saul, but Mustang is a threat
Doc Short is wide open and anyone’s guess.
Animated Short – Have a hunch it’s World of Tomorrow vs. Prologue – but the rest are also worthy and potential winners.
Live Action Short – Shok seems like it’s up against Day One and Stutterer but man, these are all good.
Makeup – The Revenant probably
Best Picture
We are still in the mindset of not knowing where this headed. We’ve gone over it again and again and at this point, it’s just down to the vote. A majority vote. A consensus and that consensus will decide. This is an apology to all of you dear readers who look to people like me for the answer: I have no clue. I’d say Spotlight is still the safest bet to win. It seems to be the one most people can agree upon and appeals across the board. But it would be a surprise to me if it did because of the lack of a BAFTA nod for Director (maybe it means nothing) and the lack of an ACE Eddie nod (maybe that means nothing).
I am choosing to follow the stats, as I keep saying, and until a different movie wins tomorrow night, I’ll stick with the film the stats best support and that’s The Big Short, even knowing it’s a hard movie to get to know, a hard movie to watch and understand unless you really know what’s going on. Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant will, I think, cancel each other out as the visionary films people are passionate about. That will leave The Big Short vs. Spotlight. And this could be totally wrong. It could actually be The Revenant vs. Spotlight or Mad Max vs. The Big Short. Or some other movie will win and throw the whole thing out of whack, like The Martian.
Best Director
The odds of the season splitting are getting less and less reliable, despite the BFCA’s earnest attempt to “match” what they think Oscar will do and, in fact, what Oscar very well might do: Spotlight for Best Picture and George Miller for Best Director. There is no shame in that choice. These are two of the best films of the year. Iñarritu could win Best Director after winning the Globe and become just the third director in Oscar history with back-to-back wins. Or we’re all out of our minds and it won’t split and director will match picture, as it is has done so many other years.
Supporting Actor and Actress
In an email convo with Statsgasm’s Marshall Flores we were talking about SAG and the acting categories. It went like this:
Marshall: Thinking a little ahead to the SAG awards, I have just learned of an interesting new stat (a hat-tip to Sam Coffey @SamRS72 for this): in all of SAG’s existence, at least one of their four acting winners each year has been from a film also nominated for the Ensemble award. In other words, there hasn’t been an year yet in which all four SAG acting winners were not from Ensemble nominees. So unless history is going to be made for the first time in 21 years, the current consensus of Leo DiCaprio/Brie Larson/Mark Rylance/Alicia Vikander is likely to be wrong. Which is why I’m picking Christian Bale to upset in a couple of weeks.
Me: I have Bale too. I don’t think Rylance is going to win. In the supporting category there are only two choices: Rylance or Bale because they have Oscar noms. The other three won’t win unless they vote for Elba in protest but he’ll win in a different category (Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries for Luther). Bale is better than Rylance and The Big Short has an Ensemble nomination – thus, he seems stronger. For Oscar it’s a little more tricky obviously. Although it’s rare to win without a SAG nom, it happens. Christoph Waltz and Marcia Gay Harden won without a SAG nom, which means Sly Stallone could still win, so could Tom Hardy. What’s the usual number of actor/ensemble pairings? 1 or 2 or…
Marshall: Rylance is classy and understated in Bridge, but I never quite understood the fervor I observed in some circles for his performance. Bale of course is brilliant. Sly winning BFCA/Globe (and hopefully Oscar), Bale SAG, and Rylance BAFTA would be a solid division of wealth in an inundated supporting category this year for me. I don’t think SAG will mutiny against the Oscars and award Elba just for the hell of it, though it seemed pretty clear they were taken with Beasts.
The most common outcome is 2 of the 4 SAG acting winners coming from Ensemble nominees. The two times all four SAG acting winners were from Ensemble nominees came within the past 5 years (2010 and 2012). There are a few 3s and a few 1s as well.
Me: How many 1s? Also I think you would have to measure how many Ensemble films vs. acting nominees come from Best Pic winners. Leo is good because of The Revenant. Brie has Room nominated, also good. Supporting actress gets tricky as neither Vikander nor Mara are nominated from one. Could McAdams win?
Marshall: My feeling is that McAdams is probably not winning. Kate could definitely surprise as I think the temptation for a Titanic reunion photo-op with Leo is there. But I’m happy to stick with Vikander, who is great in Danish Girl. Leo and Brie are locked here (as much as I want to predict Saoirse, her best chance is with BAFTA). The years where only one of the four acting winners came from an Ensemble nominee were 1996, 2003, and 2005. I’m off from my computer, but at first glance I don’t think the average number of SAG winners coming from BP nominees is that different from the average coming from Ensemble nominees.
Me: 2007 is last time a we saw a SAG supporting actress winner that wasn’t from a BP nominee, Ruby Dee for American Gangster.
Marshall: True, but before Dee started that trend, 8 of the previous 13 supporting actress winners came from non-BP nominees. We may be due for a return.
– – –
There are things we just can’t know yet, and supporting actress is one of those things. Supporting actor is also going to be weird since people are predicting Sylvester Stallone, who doesn’t have a SAG nomination.
Either way, here are the current predictions, along with the general consensus from Gold Derby
Best Motion Picture of the Year
- “The Big Short” Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers
- “Spotlight” Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust, Producers – Gold Derby
- “The Revenant” Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon, Producers
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Doug Mitchell and George Miller, Producers
- “Room” Ed Guiney, Producer
- “The Martian” Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer and Mark Huffam, Producers
- “Bridge of Spies” Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
- “Brooklyn” Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
Achievement in Directing
- “The Big Short” Adam McKay
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” George Miller – Gold Derby
- “The Revenant” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
- “Spotlight” Tom McCarthy
- “Room” Lenny Abrahamson
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
- Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Revenant” – Gold Derby
- Matt Damon in “The Martian”
- Michael Fassbender in “Steve Jobs”
- Bryan Cranston in “Trumbo”
- Eddie Redmayne in “The Danish Girl”
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
- Sylvester Stallone in “Creed” – Gold Derby
- Christian Bale in “The Big Short”
- Tom Hardy in “The Revenant”
- Mark Rylance in “Bridge of Spies”
- Mark Ruffalo in “Spotlight”
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
- Brie Larson in “Room” – Gold Derby
- Saoirse Ronan in “Brooklyn”
- Charlotte Rampling in “45 Years”
- Cate Blanchett in “Carol”
- Jennifer Lawrence in “Joy”
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
- Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl” – Gold Derby
- Rooney Mara in “Carol”
- Kate Winslet in “Steve Jobs
- Jennifer Jason Leigh in “The Hateful Eight”
- Rachel McAdams in “Spotlight”
Adapted Screenplay
- “The Big Short” Screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay – Gold Derby
- “Carol” Screenplay by Phyllis Nagy
- “Room” Screenplay by Emma Donoghue
- “Brooklyn” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
- “The Martian” Screenplay by Drew Goddard
Original Screenplay
- “Spotlight” Written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy – Gold Derby
- “Inside Out” Screenplay by Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley; Original story by Pete Docter, Ronnie del Carmen
- “Straight Outta Compton” Screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; Story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff
- “Bridge of Spies” Written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
- “Ex Machina” Written by Alex Garland
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
- “Inside Out” Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera – Gold Derby
- “Anomalisa” Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson and Rosa Tran
- “When Marnie Was There” Hiromasa Yonebayashi and Yoshiaki Nishimura
- “Shaun the Sheep Movie” Mark Burton and Richard Starzak
- “Boy and the World” Alê Abreu
Achievement in Cinematography
- “The Revenant” Emmanuel Lubezki – Gold Derby
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” John Seale
- “Carol” Ed Lachman
- “Sicario” Roger Deakins
- “The Hateful Eight” Robert Richardson
Achievement in Costume Design
- “Carol” Sandy Powell
- “Cinderella” Sandy Powell – Gold Derby
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Jenny Beavan
- “The Danish Girl” Paco Delgado
- “The Revenant” Jacqueline West
Best Documentary Feature
- “Amy” Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees – Gold Derby
- “Cartel Land” Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin
- “The Look of Silence” Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
- “What Happened, Miss Simone?” Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby and Justin Wilkes
- “Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor
Best Documentary Short Film
- “Chau, beyond the Lines” Courtney Marsh and Jerry Franck
- “Last Day of Freedom” Dee Hibbert-Jones and Nomi Talisman
- “Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah” Adam Benzine
- “A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness” Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
- “Body Team 12” David Darg and Bryn Mooser – Gold Derby
Achievement in Film Editing
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Margaret Sixel – Gold Derby
- “The Big Short” Hank Corwin
- “Spotlight” Tom McArdle
- “The Revenant” Stephen Mirrione
- “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
- “Son of Saul” Hungary – Gold Derby
- “Mustang” France
- “Theeb” Jordan
- “Embrace of the Serpent” Colombia
- “A War” Denmark
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
- “The Revenant” Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin – Gold Derby
- “The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared” Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
- “The Hateful Eight” Ennio Morricone – Gold Derby
- “Carol” Carter Burwell
- “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” John Williams
- “Bridge of Spies” Thomas Newman
- “Sicario” Jóhann Jóhannsson
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
- “Til It Happens To You” from “The Hunting Ground”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga – Gold Derby - “Writing’s On The Wall” from “Spectre”
Music and Lyric by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith - “Manta Ray” from “Racing Extinction”
Music by J. Ralph and Lyric by Antony Hegarty - “Simple Song #3” from “Youth”
Music and Lyric by David Lang - “Earned It” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”
Music and Lyric by Abel Tesfaye, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephan Moccio
Achievement in Production Design
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Production Design: Colin Gibson; Set Decoration: Lisa Thompson – Gold Derby
- “The Revenant” Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Hamish Purdy
- “The Martian” Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Celia Bobak
- “Bridge of Spies” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo and Bernhard Henrich
- “The Danish Girl” Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Michael Standish
Best Animated Short Film
- “World of Tomorrow” Don Hertzfeldt
- “Prologue” Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton
- “Sanjay’s Super Team” Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle – Gold Derby
- “We Can’t Live without Cosmos” Konstantin Bronzit
- “Bear Story” Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala
Best Live Action Short Film
- “Shok” Jamie Donoughue
- “Day One” Henry Hughes
- “Stutterer” Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage
- “Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)” Patrick Vollrath
- “Ave Maria” Basil Khalil and Eric Dupont – Gold Derby
Achievement in Sound Editing
- “The Revenant” Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Mark Mangini and David White – Gold Derby
- “The Martian” Oliver Tarney
- “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Matthew Wood and David Acord
- “Sicario” Alan Robert Murray
Achievement in Sound Mixing
- “The Revenant” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom and Chris Duesterdiek
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo – Gold Derby
- “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson
- “The Martian” Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth
- “Bridge of Spies” Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin
Achievement in Visual Effects
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams – Gold Derby
- “The Revenant” Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer
- “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
- “The Martian” Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner
- “Ex Machina” Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett