Leading up to the 88th Academy Awards, I’ve had the pleasure of speaking with dozens of filmmakers responsible for the Best Picture nominees. In our new Focus On… series, you can catch up with all the conversations I’ve had with many of the nominees and other collaborators on behalf of Awards Daily. Starting with Spotlight, read what screenwriters Josh Singer and Tom McArdle, and composer Howard Shore have to say about their work on one of this year’s Oscar frontrunners.
Spotlight is nominated for six Academy Awards including: Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Film Editing, Tom McCarthy is nominated for Best Director, Mark Ruffalo for Best Supporting Actor and Rachel McAdams for Best Supporting Actress.
Howard Shore Interview
Brian D’Arcy James Interview: From Broadway to Hollywood
Interview: Brian d’Arcy James Goes from Broadway to Spotlight
Nominated for Best Original Screenplay – Josh Singer – Spotlight
Nominated for Best Film Editing – Tom McArdle – Spotlight
Best movie of the year.
Cool! Nice work!
Honestly, the big race seems to be…
1. Spotlight: the SAG win, give the lead back to it, waiting for the DGA to speak. The film that feels important (even if it is not that much, in comparison to #2)
2. The Big Short: emptyhanded at the SAG, it desperately needed the ensemble, to confirm its strenght. It is the most important film of the pack, despite not seeming it at first glance.
3. The Revenant: despite being unlikely, Iñarritu is hitting big time, twice in a row, specially given his competition, one can’t ignore that it leads the noms, and it is a lock to win one of the big ones, Lead Actor, and a plausible winner on every other cathegory. It is a film that could win or lose, every one of its 12 noms. That’s something to be considered.
4. Mad Max: Fury Road: it’s the frontrunner to win the most awards, and also the likely winner of Film Editing and Director, a combo that normally gives Best Picture in the pack, if the film is also nominated. If it wins both, it’s winning Picture. It’s a film loved with passion, enough passion to make the 4th film in a sci-fi/action series, a Best Picture nominee… despite NONE of the previous entries, earning a single nom, not even for the song “We don’t need another hero”, by Tina Turner, on “Thunderdome”.
5. Room: The little film that could. There’s the slight chance, that this little, movie film, can be this year’s “Ordinary People”.
6. The Martian: while the absence of Ridley Scott certainly hurts really bad, this actually frees the people divided between Fury Road and this, to vote for The Martian at Best Picture, and Miller at Direction. It’s possible, even if not the favorite, that could earn either or both Actor and Adapted Screenplay, without being huge shocks. Add some tech love and you have our dark horse.
7. Bridge of Spies: never count Spielberg out. It can win Supporting Actor, some tech and upset Spotlight at Original, without being a huge shocker. A longshot, but a film that no one seems to hate.
8. Brooklyn. Despite the fact Saoirse Ronan might upset Larson, this is our “happy to be there” nominee.
So I’d say in %:
1. Spotlight 30%
2. The Big Short 25%
3. The Revenant 20%
4. Mad Max Fury Road 15%
5. Room 4%
6. The Martian 4%
7. Bridge of Spies 2%
8. Brooklyn 0%
The Big Short still has PGA though. The significance of that victory cannot be denied.
It’s nowhere near that close… At least 80-90% of the chances are split between The Big Short and Spotlight, with the former getting most of that (50-60%, at least, but probably more.)
“The Big Short: […] it desperately needed the ensemble, to confirm its strength.”
Nah… History shows if you win the PGA, you usually don’t need to win the SAG to win BP. There are exceptions, of course (Crash and Shakespeare in Love), but, most of the time, it’s unnecessary. It’s a bonus and a further sign of strength, if it comes, but not essential.