As we head into the weekend, we’re at our last stop before Oscar ballots are mailed out to voters. It’s been a season full of twists and turns. It has been unpredictable in many ways, with the final verdict still to be determined. We don’t know if the Oscars themselves will surprise us by making history, or if they will surprise us by NOT making history in an unpredictable season.
Why is it unpredictable? Usually, either the acting races OR the Best Picture race are unpredictable. This is a year where Best Picture and Best Director are both too close to call. Usually voters have to decide between two Best Picture frontrunners, like last year’s Boyhood and Birdman. Sometimes there are three movies in the Best Picture race, like in 2013 when 12 Years a Slave and Gravity tied at the Producers Guild, Gravity won the Directors Guild, and American Hustle won the SAG Ensemble award. In the end, 12 Years won Best Picture and Gravity won Director, American Hustle went home empty-handed.
One of the biggest reasons this year is so unpredictable is that a lot of the films that seemed strong early on stumbled as the race became more competitive. The Weinstein Co’s Carol was a campaign that forgot how homophobic the Academy still really is. While it was nominated at BAFTA for Best Picture and Director, it was shut out in both categories by both guild and Academy voters. They just aren’t going to let Todd Haynes into their club. It was a miracle Phyllis Nagy’s brilliant adaptation of the Patricia Highsmith novel received a screenplay nomination.
Another movie that stumbled was Fox’s The Martian. Fox entered the season with three movies: The Revenant, Joy, and The Martian. Of those, The Martian was the one they didn’t really see coming as an Oscar contender. It ultimately got in the Best Picture race, but just barely. Joy netted only a Best Actress nomination for Jennifer Lawrence. But The Revenant, Fox’s big Oscar bet, came in with a whopping 12 nominations, missing only Screenplay, but faring better than Mad Max: Fury Road in that it received acting nominations and has a Best Actor frontrunner in Leonardo DiCaprio.
Spotlight from Open Road was taking the Telluride low-key frontrunner position that ultimately goes on to win the whole thing. But it missed an ACE Eddie nomination, which is one of the key nominations needed heading into the race. It then also missed a Best Director nomination from the BAFTA directors branch. The Martian got the director nomination but not Best Picture. Missing one or the other can usually mean that the contender isn’t as strong heading into the guild awards. But then Spotlight surprised by winning the SAG Ensemble award, beating The Big Short. With Straight Outta Compton and Beasts of No Nation as competition, it’s possible that Spotlight’s support came from the 50,000 newly minted AFTRA voters (many of them, TV journalists), but a win is a win. When you have a film being shown at the Vatican, it becomes a fairly big deal. Spotlight is the film that won over the largest group to announce so far: the 150,000 voters of SAG-AFTRA.
Finally, one film emerged sort of late in the game but had guild screenings as early as October. Paramount, remembering its screener debacle last year with Selma, made sure their movie was seen, and in many cases — necessary cases –seen twice. A film about the Wall Street meltdown and the crooks who got away with it also tapped into the rise of Bernie Sanders among the kind of privileged white people who vote on these awards, i.e., those who have the luxury to be idealists. Still, beyond that, The Big Short was wildly original, funny and unconventional filmmaking which differentiated it from the other films in the race. Somehow, it won the Producers Guild Award, shocking almost everyone by attaining a majority consensus with 7,000 voters (unless you looked at the stats, like we had).
The stats said that only one film COULD win the Producers Guild – The Big Short — because it had all the crucial nominations heading into Best Picture that every film has had since 1989 at least:
SAG Awards Ensemble, ACE Eddie, BAFTA for Picture and Director/PGA/DGA – you can even add the WGA if you want but it isn’t that essential compared to the others.
No other film in the race had all of these. Fury Road and The Revenant were missing the SAG Ensemble nomination. Spotlight was missing the ACE Eddie. The Martian was missing an Oscar nomination for Best Director. The Big Short also got an A- CinemaScore, while The Revenant and Mad Max only got a B+. That might not seem like it’s important but Oscar winners, when they are CinemaScored, rarely score lower than an A- with audiences.
The Big Short is also making good money. Maybe it’s making anti-establishment Bernie money but it’s still making money. Right now, it’s box-office total stands at $61 million. It can’t touch The Revenant or Mad Max or even The Martian, but it’s way ahead of everything else. For some reason, the major pundits do not see The Big Short as the winner, as this latest Gurus of Gold chart indicates:
The all-star Oscar watchers are going for Spotlight, based on it being an unpredictable race and that SAG Ensemble award win. If it wins SAG without having won the PGA and goes on to win the DGA tomorrow night, it will be the first film in all of their combined history to pull off that trick. The only other option is The Big Short, which only a few of us are betting to win.
The only other category that is undecided by these pundits is Best Director, which looks like this:
Anne Thompson doesn’t get enough credit for ushering films into the Oscar race when many are saying they’re down for the count. She was one of the few who called Mad Max’s dramatic Oscar showing very early on, when most were saying “no way.” She did the same with Life and Pi and specifically Ang Lee for Best Director, and did it again for the Grand Budapest Hotel, predicting it to get in when it really seemed like it was too early to call. This year, she’s done something she never does — she’s written a pitch to explain why George Miller should win the DGA. The problem with this — and with the director category overall, why it’s often so hard to call — is that this year we have four strong contenders vying for a consensus vote among roughly 15,000 people with a plurality voting system. Votes are going to be split.
Where I believe Adam McKay gets a slight advantage heading into the DGAs is that The Big Short just won the Producers Guild Award. Probably producers and directors are going to be more aligned with each other than they are with actors, you have to figure. But McKay is not only a film director — he’s been a producer, a writer and an actor. He has a television background with his work on Saturday Night Live. His roots extend to many branches. His connections are many. Still, at the end of the day, it’s going to come down to which film or director they think deserve to win.
Two masterful epics – The Revenant and Mad Max – vs. two smaller character dramas that involve uncovering corruption. The only one of these four that stands out from the rest is The Big Short, which, like The Martian, is actually brimming with humor. In the face of the deeper tragedy, it lets us laugh rather than weep. Will that make a difference amid so many depressing films? It might. Will Spotlight’s universality give it the edge over The Big Short? It might. Will Inarritu win an historic back-to-back directing Oscar? He might. Will George Miller finally cash the check of hard work and good will he’s been owed for decades, not to mention having directed such a balls-out spectacular tour-de-force in his twilight years? He might.
We’re stuck. Anyone who pretends to know who the DGA will choose is kidding themselves. We’re getting down to the wire now.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
- “The Big Short” Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers
- “Spotlight” Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust, Producers
- “The Revenant” Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon, Producers
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Doug Mitchell and George Miller, Producers
- “Room” Ed Guiney, Producer
- “The Martian” Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer and Mark Huffam, Producers
- “Bridge of Spies” Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
- “Brooklyn” Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
Achievement in Directing
- “The Big Short” Adam McKay
- “Spotlight” Tom McCarthy
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” George Miller
- “The Revenant” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
- “Room” Lenny Abrahamson
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
- Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Revenant”
- Matt Damon in “The Martian”
- Michael Fassbender in “Steve Jobs”
- Bryan Cranston in “Trumbo”
- Eddie Redmayne in “The Danish Girl”
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
I’m still thinking Sly takes this. I just think his performance is so warm and winning, coupled with his being in the business so long – 40 years after Rocky and everything.
- Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”
- Mark Ruffalo in “Spotlight”
- Christian Bale in “The Big Short”
- Mark Rylance in “Bridge of Spies”
- Tom Hardy in “The Revenant”
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
- Brie Larson in “Room”
- Saoirse Ronan in “Brooklyn”
- Charlotte Rampling in “45 Years”
- Cate Blanchett in “Carol”
- Jennifer Lawrence in “Joy”
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
- Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl”
- Rooney Mara in “Carol”
- Kate Winslet in “Steve Jobs
- Jennifer Jason Leigh in “The Hateful Eight”
- Rachel McAdams in “Spotlight”
Adapted Screenplay
- “The Big Short” Screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
- “Carol” Screenplay by Phyllis Nagy
- “Room” Screenplay by Emma Donoghue
- “Brooklyn” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
- “The Martian” Screenplay by Drew Goddard
Original Screenplay
- “Spotlight” Written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy
- “Straight Outta Compton” Screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; Story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff
- “Inside Out” Screenplay by Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley; Original story by Pete Docter, Ronnie del Carmen
- “Bridge of Spies” Written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
- “Ex Machina” Written by Alex Garland
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
- “Inside Out” Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera
- “Anomalisa” Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson and Rosa Tran
- “When Marnie Was There” Hiromasa Yonebayashi and Yoshiaki Nishimura
- “Shaun the Sheep Movie” Mark Burton and Richard Starzak
- “Boy and the World” Alê Abreu
Achievement in Cinematography
- “The Revenant” Emmanuel Lubezki
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” John Seale
- “Carol” Ed Lachman
- “Sicario” Roger Deakins
- “The Hateful Eight” Robert Richardson
Achievement in Costume Design
- “Carol” Sandy Powell
- “Cinderella” Sandy Powell
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Jenny Beavan
- “The Danish Girl” Paco Delgado
- “The Revenant” Jacqueline West
Best Documentary Feature
Again, just making a roll of the dice prediction here. Don’t you be like me.
- “What Happened, Miss Simone?” Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby and Justin Wilkes
- “Amy” Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees
- “Cartel Land” Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin
- “The Look of Silence” Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
- “Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor
Best Documentary Short Film
- “Chau, beyond the Lines” Courtney Marsh and Jerry Franck
- “Last Day of Freedom” Dee Hibbert-Jones and Nomi Talisman
- “Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah” Adam Benzine
- “A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness” Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
- “Body Team 12” David Darg and Bryn Mooser
Achievement in Film Editing
- “The Big Short” Hank Corwin
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Margaret Sixel
- “Spotlight” Tom McArdle
- “The Revenant” Stephen Mirrione
- “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
- “Son of Saul” Hungary
- “Mustang” France
- “Theeb” Jordan
- “Embrace of the Serpent” Colombia
- “A War” Denmark
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
- “The Revenant” Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin
- “The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared” Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
I’m actually going to swap this out, based on Carol’s swoony score and betting that not everybody in the Academy will want to vote for anything Hateful 8 related.
- “Carol” Carter Burwell
- “The Hateful Eight” Ennio Morricone
- “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” John Williams
- “Bridge of Spies” Thomas Newman
- “Sicario” Jóhann Jóhannsson
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
- “Til It Happens To You” from “The Hunting Ground”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga - “Writing’s On The Wall” from “Spectre”
Music and Lyric by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith - “Manta Ray” from “Racing Extinction”
Music by J. Ralph and Lyric by Antony Hegarty - “Simple Song #3” from “Youth”
Music and Lyric by David Lang - “Earned It” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”
Music and Lyric by Abel Tesfaye, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephan Moccio
Achievement in Production Design
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Production Design: Colin Gibson; Set Decoration: Lisa Thompson
- “The Revenant” Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Hamish Purdy
- “The Martian” Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Celia Bobak
- “Bridge of Spies” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo and Bernhard Henrich
- “The Danish Girl” Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Michael Standish
Best Animated Short Film
- “Prologue” Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton
- “World of Tomorrow” Don Hertzfeldt
- “Sanjay’s Super Team” Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle
- “We Can’t Live without Cosmos” Konstantin Bronzit
- “Bear Story” Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala
Best Live Action Short Film
- “Shok” Jamie Donoughue
- “Day One” Henry Hughes
- “Stutterer” Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage
- “Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)” Patrick Vollrath
- “Ave Maria” Basil Khalil and Eric Duponty
Achievement in Sound Editing
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Mark Mangini and David White
- “The Revenant” Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender
- “The Martian” Oliver Tarney
- “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Matthew Wood and David Acord
- “Sicario” Alan Robert Murray
Achievement in Sound Mixing
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo
- “The Revenant” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom and Chris Duesterdiek
- “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson
- “The Martian” Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth
- “Bridge of Spies” Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin
Achievement in Visual Effects
- “Mad Max: Fury Road” Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams
- “The Revenant” Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer
- “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
- “The Martian” Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner
- “Ex Machina” Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett