*Updated this to rework screenplay, as Moonlight is considered original. I also altered adapted screenplay, which is a lot more thin than original at the moment.
It isn’t that people weren’t predicting Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea or Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight. Most were, all were. Still, sometimes you never know how things are going to go. You think a movie is going to sail through awards season and for whatever reason it is derailed. Manchester by the Sea leading the Gotham’s means something, but mainly because awards are about perception as much as they are about how much people love the films. An award announcement lends prestige, no matter if it’s the Gotham’s or the Golden Globes — there is something to do being able to claim such an honor.
Manchester gets a definite boost from the critics, and Moonlight, which is also nominated for feature and screenplay at the Gotham’s was met with a sea of rave reviews today, the New York Times and LA Times among them. I’d say we have three bonafide frontrunners:
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
It seems very likely that all three will have enough people calling them their favorite film of the year to easily make the Best Picture cut. When the New York Film Critics, National Board of Review and Critics Choice announce at the end of November, the picture will shift a little but you can mark these three down as sure bets.
That probably also means these three will be the top three for Best Director as well, with Manchester and La La Land duking it out for original screenplay, and Moonlight in joining whatever other films launch into the race in adapted.
From here, the picture is all about bets, wagers, hopes and dreams. Some think it will go one way, others think another way. There are the Jackie factions, the Lion factions, the Arrival factions (raises hand), the Hell or High Water factions, The Loving factions, the Sully factions, the Live by Night factions, the Silence, Hacksaw Ridge and Fences factions. The 20th Century women factions. You get the idea. It’s a toss up as to which films will fill in the five or six that will be nominated alongside these three but like we had Birdman, Boyhood and The Imitation Game two years ago, we’re looking at a similar kind of threesome hitting the film critics circuit now.
Other than that, not much has changed except the potential no go for Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (though I still want to see the film for myself because I can’t believe what I’ve read about it so far).
There are many festivals happening right now that draw Academy members, and bring publicity to various small towns and the films that arrive there. The Middleburg festival in Virginia (AD’s Jazz Tangcay is currently covering), the Napa Film fest here in California, the Key West film fest in Florida, and where I will be next week, the Savannah Film Fest presented by SCAD, the Savannah School of Art and Design.
The last gasp of the fests will be AFI, which happens early November and then we start into the heat of awards season.
I spend a lot of time on Best Picture but today I’d like to talk about the acting categories and specifically, how many winners are from late breaking films and how many come from films that would have been seen by now.
In the past ten years, the only winner that came in late and won the Oscar that I can think of is Leonardo DiCaprio who won for The Revenant last year. The thing about that, though? Everybody was talking about him winning for years before that — with each new year people would wonder, is this it for Leo? Most were predicting him to win for The Revenant sight unseen but when people finally did see the movie it was clear that DiCaprio deserved it.
The only other sort of late breaking winner was Jeff Bridges who won for Crazy Heart, which was released in early December. I’m pretty sure people saw it before then, though. I do not remember it being particularly late.
What I’m getting around to is this: even though Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea does not seem like a typical Oscar winner (young, doesn’t transform himself, isn’t overdue) his positioning now in the race might mean no one coming up can unseat him. Any performance that might unseat him will have to come from later in the year, and someone who is overdue — like Warren Beatty for Rules Don’t Apply, like Denzel Washington for Fences. There is one other possibility and that’s Dev Patel for Lion. He’s so likable in the film and if Academy members are looking to give Best Actor to a person of color rather than the standard white actor yet again, that might count in Patel’s favor. Obviously they have to see the movie and like the movie for this to be a reality but by now I would expect there to be lots of Lion events happening and Dev’s face everywhere. I’m not seeing that so much. I am seeing a situation where Affleck could walk away with it because there are no real viable challengers right now. Not to mention a Best Actor win for Manchester could be that movie’s big win of the night if voters are looking to award La La Land with the big prizes.
Best Actress is still a tough nut to crack, with three actresses now in it to win it: Emma Stone in La La Land (the frontrunner), Annette Bening in 20th Century Women (way, way overdue) and Natalie Portman in Jackie (won recently but …). Viola Davis and Fences have not yet been seen — the pressure is on. Both Denzel Washington and Viola Davis’ performances have to be seen before either category can be decided.
With Best Actress, though, it’s even more important to be out there early and not count on a late breaker. As with Best Picture, a big name can make up ground in a hurry — like a Scorsese or a Tarantino. Most Best Actress winners come from films that would have already been seen by now. The one exception would be Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side — but that was an easy award to predict because her time had come. She’s paid her dues, made a lot of money for Hollywood and was very likable in the industry.
Unfortunately, there are always actors who aren’t likable and in fact, seem to be hated in the industry. When it comes time to give them their Oscar, voters often simply refuse as payback. This is not something any of us can predict — we just have to watch it go down, humiliating minute by humiliating minute. It’s rare to have someone like Jennifer Lawrence swoop in and win the Oscar, as she did for Silver Linings Playbook. She was a hurricane that year. She could not be stopped. I am thinking something similar is going to happen with Emma Stone. We shall see.
I’m flying to NYC tomorrow AM so it’s now or never, my friends:
Best Picture
Frontrunners
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea
Silence
Fences
Jackie
Arrival
Sully
Lion
Contenders:
Hacksaw Ridge
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Live by Night
Best Actor
Denzel Washington, Fences
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Warren Beatty, The Rules Don’t Apply (unless supporting)
Dev Patel, Lion
Tom Hanks, Sully
Contenders
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Robert DeNiro, The Comedian
Chris Pine, Hell or High Water
Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Ben Affleck, Live by Night
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Matthew McConaughey, Gold
Best Actress
Emma Stone, La La Land
Viola Davis, Fences (unless supporting)
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Amy Adams, Arrival
Contenders
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Ruth Negga, Loving
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Emily Blunt, Girl on the Train
Rebecca Hall, Christine
Rooney Mara, Una
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
Supporting Actor
Liam Neeson, Silence
Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Contenders
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Supporting Actress
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane
Molly Shannon, Other People
Contenders
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Contenders:
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Clint Eastwood, Sully
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
Original Screenplay
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Alt. Kelly Reichardt, Certain Women
Adapted Screenplay
August Wilson, Fences
Jay Cocks, Silence
Luke Davies, Lion
Todd Komarnicki, Sully
Ben Affleck, Live by Night
Editing
La La Land
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Moonlight
Silence
Cinematography
La La Land
Arrival
Jackie
Hail Caesar
Rules Don’t Apply
Production Design
La La Land
Jackie
Arrival
Rules Don’t Apply
Hail Caesar
Costume Design
Jackie
La La Land
Rules Don’t Apply
Loving
Documentary Feature
OJ: Made in America
13th
Gleason
Life Animated
Weiner
Animated feature
The Red Turtle
Moana
Sing
Finding Dory
Zootopia
Visual Effects
Arrival
Midnight Special
Hail Caesar
Captain America: Civil War
Rogue One
Makeup AND HAIR
La La Land
Jackie
Rules Don’t Apply
Hail Caesar
Indignation