The Best Actress category is the hardest to predict at the moment because it feels like there are maybe seven or eight solid names and only five slots. The three locks at the moment appear to be Emma Stone for La La Land, Natalie Portman for Jackie, and Annette Bening for 20th Century Women. Beyond that, there is Ruth Negga in Loving, Amy Adams in Arrival, Jessica Chastain in Miss Sloane, and Isabelle Huppert in Elle, and that’s before you even get to, say, Taraji P. Henson in Hidden Figures, Rebecca Hall in Christine, and Meryl Sreep in Florence Foster Jenkins.
The Globes divide the categories in two, drama and musical/comedy. So that means, for the Globes, Emma Stone will not be facing down Natalie Portman because they will be in different categories. Natalie Portman will not be facing Emma Stone or Annette Bening because both will likely be in musical/comedy, unless 20th Century Women goes into drama. In this Kris Tapley piece, he says they’re leaning comedy.
In the comedy category, the nominees might look something like:
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins – she’ll also be receiving the Cecil B. DeMille award, which will put a lot of heat and attention on Streep.
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
And then a fifth slot which could be filled by Kristen Stewart in Cafe Society or Greta Gerwig in Maggie’s Plan. Or some out of left field comedic performance no one is thinking about, like Renee Zellweger in Bridget Jones’ Baby. Even Jennifer Lawrence could get in for Passengers.
But only three of those at the most are going to the big show – Stone, for sure, Bening, and very likely Streep.
In the Drama category, with three of the frontrunners out, that leaves room for other performances that might get a boost from being nominated. What we have so far:
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Ruth Negga, Loving
Amy Adams, Arrival or Nocturnal Animals
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle or Rebecca Hall, Christine
But even with the two categories split to include 10 nominees, it’s STILL hard to predict who will get in and who won’t, because now we’re talking about 90 Hollywood Foreign Press members.
The Screen Actors Guild will winnow it down to five, which will help a little with predictions, but we’re still rolling the dice when it comes to Oscar.
By the way, Portman probably wins for Jackie, I’m guessing, but I could see any of the actresses in drama taking it. In musical/comedy, well, I’m guessing Emma Stone wins it in a walk. But I also would not be surprised if Annette Bening or Streep won there. Looking over Globes/Oscar history, it’s pretty rare to have three names cross over to the Oscar nominations. Usually it’s one, sometimes two.