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Predicts Friday – the Golden Globes! And Away We Go

Probably not much that happens at Sunday’s Golden Globes will change things all that much for the Oscar race in terms of nominations. I suspect that many have a pretty good idea of how they want to vote regardless of what they’ll see this Sunday. Although ’tis the season for the backlashes to burst forth if there are any to be had and prime time for the smear campaigns if someone feeling threatened wants to knock a contender out. This is the time. There will be another time on down the road as final decisions are made on winners but right now we’re looking at nominees.

Since we already went through what things might happen that could change the race, the names I’m keeping an eye on are:

Mel Gibson, potentially for (and deserving for) Best Director at the DGA.
Viggo Mortenson, who picked up a one-two punch with a Golden Globe nomination and a SAG nomination, plus an ensemble nod for Captain Fantastic.
Annette Bening, to see if there is any possible room for an upset.
How La La Land is received overall.
And whether Casey Affleck will beat Denzel Washington – I think he will at the Globes but not sure about SAG and the Oscar race.

These are a few questions that are swirling around in my mind as we head into the weekend. I think you can suss out how well liked a movie is by how it wins, or how it’s spoken about on the red carpet. Buzz is something you can feel and not something you can read online. It’s there or it isn’t there.

Argo’s strength was really seen for the first time in 2012 at the Globes. You could feel the excitement around the movie that night. When Jim Cameron and Avatar won at the Globes you could sense that there was sentiment for Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker.   These are ways that the Globes can sometimes shift perception every so slightly.

An interesting thing about this year is that all of the films competing for the top prizes are great. There isn’t a bad one in the bunch.The Golden Globes are hard to predict because sometimes there are big surprises, like Aaron Sorkin winning for Steve Jobs or Kate Winslet winning for Steve Jobs for that matter. Getting a good score depends on how well you call out the potential upsets.

This is how we think it might go:

Best Picture, Drama
The Most Likely Winner: Manchester by the Sea
But don’t count out: Moonlight
The Shocker: Hacksaw Ridge

Best Picture, Musical/Comedy
La La Land can’t lose

Best Actress, Drama
The Most Likely Winner: Natalie Portman, Jackie
But don’t count out: Amy Adams, Arrival
The Shocker: Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Best Actor, Drama
The Most Likely Winner: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
But don’t count out: Denzel Washington, Fences
The shocker: Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actress Musical Comedy
The Most Likely Winner:  Emma Stone, La La Land
But don’t count out:  Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
The Shocker:  Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Actor Musical Comedy
The Most Likely Winner:   Ryan Gosling, La La Land
But don’t count out:  Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
The Shocker:  Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Supporting Actress
The Most Likely Winner:  Viola Davis, Fences
But don’t count out:  Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
The Shocker:  Nicole Kidman, Lion

The Most Likely Winner:  Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
But don’t count out:  Dev Patel, Lion
The Shocker:  Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Best Director
The Most Likely Winner:  Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (we’re going for an upset here)
But don’t count out:   Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea, Damien Chazelle, La La Land or Barry Jenkins (the general consensus pick)
The Shocker:  Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Best Screenplay
The Most Likely Winner:  Manchester by the Sea
But don’t count out:  Moonlight
The Shocker:   Nocturnal Animals

Foreign Language Film
The Most Likely Winner:  Toni Erdmann
But don’t count out:  Elle
The Shocker:  The Salesman

Animated Feature
The Most Likely Winner:  Kubo and the Two Strings
But don’t count out:  Zootopia (Oscar frontrunner)
The Shocker:  My Life as a Zucchini

The Most Likely Winner:  La La Land
But don’t count out:  Lion or Moonlight
The Shocker:  Arrival

The Most Likely Winner:  How Far I’ll Go (because Lin-Manuel Miranda!)
But don’t count out:  City of Stars (is probably going to win)
The Shocker:  Can’t Stop the Feeling! (JT!)

So there you have it! Make sure to enter our contest to see how you far predicting these.