Remember the saying about The King’s Speech? “Some movies you feel?” That was all that mattered that year. And so it goes with La La Land. Some movies you feel. It is the movie’s misfortune that this happens to be the year it’s riding home to Oscar glory. Its reign comes at a time of great upheaval and fear in politics, in the country, everywhere. But it stands out as a brilliant work of art on its own and there is no way the people who decide film awards are ever going to give that up. La La Land represents who they are, or at least, how they view themselves in an ideal world: one where they never gave up on their dreams.
We can spend all day trying to figure out which films are better expressions of our collective agony and grief, those of us on the left anyway. But at the end of the day, people do not vote for films that way. They don’t even consider it. So when you hear people say that politics and the election might shift the way people vote, it wasn’t true with the 6,000 members of the Producers Guild, or the 14,500 in the Directors Guild.
The only group that didn’t crown La La Land their top prize were the actors, or at least the 2,000 tasked with the job of picking best ensemble. And that is the only crack in La La Land’s otherwise ironclad dominance. Was it locked out because the voters were a more diverse bunch? Was it locked out because it was a “two hander”? Was it locked out because actors didn’t feel it depicted their world the way they saw their world? Whatever happened, there is the key to whether or not there will be a surprise upset for Best Picture.
Still, one can’t ignore the stark juxtaposition of La La Land and what’s happening in American politics.This year is hard to read because of that. Any other year there would be no problem with how things are turning out, but this year there are things we simply can’t ignore when predicting the Oscar race. Like the influx of new members: many of them very young, women, people of color. Might that matter? Does the biggest branch, the actors, not picking it for ensemble mean they might like Hidden Figures better and might that shift the preferential ballot? Or, as some are suggesting, is Trump’s King Kong terrorizing of Americans and the anger and resistance fury people are feeling make them vote for something else? If so, what?
The publicity team behind La La Land is the best in the business, and there is no way they’re going to drop the ball on this. To help deflect from some of the charges of John Legend being a sell-out next to purist Ryan Gosling, they are bringing out John Legend to perform the songs at the Oscars. Legend was also on hand at the Producers Guild (as I recall) to accept La La Land. He’s being put out front and center whenever possible as a way to say, see, this isn’t what La La Land is deliberately about. It’s a brilliant publicity strategy for the final stretch to erase any potential setback in perception.
The BAFTAs this weekend will only solidify La La Land’s grand slam around the bases just before ballots go out. It won a record seven Golden Globes just before nomination ballots went out and now it will sweep the BAFTAS just before final ballots go out. No one at Gold Derby is betting against it. No one has the nerve. La La Land may easily break the record of seven BAFTA wins post-2000 when the British moved up their ceremony to be before the Oscars.
I would love it if we lived in a world where Hidden Figures could win Best Picture. To me, it’s a meaningful win and one that would go a long way towards once again uniting the public with the Academy. Of course, La La Land is popular too and does the same thingm so perhaps it’s a toss up on that front. It really just comes down to whether or not voters are plugged into the diverse offerings this year and why that matters vs. just picking the film they like best.
Hidden Figures is making a good rally here at the end – advertising to show that they are taking their potential win seriously. I think it has a lot of good will going for it, which means people will be prioritizing it on their ballots even if it isn’t their number one choice. That makes it a threat only if there is a second count. La La Land has to win on the first round because if it doesn’t there is a chance another movie might overtake it. Very likely that would be Hidden Figures, pushed by the Academy’s largest branch, the actors, who did not give La La Land an ensemble nod. That’s my best guess for an upset.
As you can see, Hidden Figures is advertising where not many other films are to challenge the frontrunner here in the 11th hour. Stats tell us it’s a near impossibility, however, but they are holding out hope.
I’m sticking with eight for La La Land but I could see it winning nine.
Here is where I think La La Land MIGHT be vulnerable:
Sound categories – we’re assuming that it will win because it seems like a no-brainer. But Arrival or Hacksaw Ridge could win both as a way to honor those films. No musical has ever won sound editing, but then again, no musical was even nominated for sound editing until La La Land. And given that voters probably don’t know the difference between mixing and editing, they can easily give La La Land both awards.
Cinematography – after Lion beat La La Land at the ASC it seemed like there was a shot it could also win the Oscar. In a sweep no way La La Land loses, but if things are mixed up a bit I could see a shift here.
Costumes – I’m still predicting Jackie but again, in a sweep they’ll go for La La Land.
Production Design – Hail, Caesar! should win this but it probably won’t. Arrival could win, even Passengers could win come to that. Remember when Lincoln won that? It showed voters wanted to award the film even if they weren’t giving it a top prize. La La Land would be the first contemporary film to win the Oscar here since All the President’s Men.
Best Picture – in a fluke year, it’s possible that it could upset on a preferential ballot but I would not vote against it. Wild card pick would be Hidden Figures.
Predictions
Best Picture
La La Land (PGA/DGA) (1)
Hidden Figures (SAG)
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Arrival
Fences
Lion
Hell or High Water
Hacksaw Ridge
Best Actor
Denzel Washington, Fences (SAG)
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (GLOBES)
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Best Actress
Emma Stone, La La Land (SAG) (2)
Isabelle Huppert, Elle (GLOBES)
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Ruth Negga, Loving
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (SAG)
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Dev Patel, Lion
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences (GLOBES/SAG)
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land (3)
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Original Screenplay
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Damien Chazelle, La La Land (GLOBES)
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Yorgos Lanthimos/Efthimis Filippou, The Lobster
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Adapted Screenplay
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Eric Heisserer, Arrival
August Wilson, Fences
Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Luke Davies, Lion
Editing
La La Land (ACE)(5)
Arrival
Moonlight
Hell or High Water
Hacksaw Ridge
Cinematography
Lion
La La Land
Arrival
Moonlight
Silence
Production Design
Arrival
La La Land
Hail Caesar
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Passengers
Sound Mixing
La La Land (6)
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Rogue One
13 Hours
Sound Editing
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
La La Land
Sully
Costume Design
Jackie
La La Land
Fantastic Beasts
Florence Foster Jenkins
Allied
Original Score
La La Land (7)
Jackie
Moonlight
Lion
Passengers
Original Song
City of Stars (8)
How Far I’ll Go
Audition
Can’t Stop the Feeling
The Empty Chair
Foreign Language Feature
The Salesman (Iran)
A Man Called ove (Sweden)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Tanna (Australia)
Land of Mine
Documentary Feature
OJ: Made in America
13th
I’m not Your Negro
Life, Animated
Fire at Sea
Animated feature
Zootopia
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
My Life as a Zucchini
Visual Effects
Jungle Book
Deepwater Horizon
Rogue One
Doctor Strange
Kubo and the Two Strings
Makeup and Hair
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Live Action Short
Sing (Mindenki)
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Timecode
Animated Short
Piper
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Blind Vaysha
Pearl
Documentary Short
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
The White Helmets
Extremis
Watani: My Homeland