Moonlight and Arrival take top honors at 2017 Writers Guild Awards February 19, 2017 0 Comments Jazz Tangcay Posted in featuredNews The Writers Guild Awards are being handed out in Beverly Hills. Film Original Screenplay: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight Adapted Screenplay: Eric Heisserer, Arrival Documentary Screenplay: Robert Kenner and Eric Schlosser, Command and Control Television Long-form Original: Confirmation Long-form Adapted: The People v. O.J. Simpson Drama Series: The Americans Comedy Series: Atlanta New Series: Atlanta Episodic Drama: “The Trip” (This Is Us) Episodic Comedy: “Kimmy Goes on a Playdate!” (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) Animation: “Stop the Presses” (BoJack Horseman) Comedy Variety Series: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver Paddy Chayefsky Laurel Award for TV Writing Achievement: Aaron Sorkin Makeup and Hairstylists Guild Announce Winners February 19, 2017 0 Comments ‘Crashing’ Review: Pete Holmes’s... February 20, 2017 0 Comments Share this About author Jazz Tangcay As a Brit, I'll say anything. Some things I love; Meryl Streep, Italians and Starbucks. Related Posts 0 Comments BEST DIRECTORfeatured Best Director – Is it Christopher Nolan’s to Lose? 0 Comments BEST ACTRESSBEST PICTUREfeaturedOscar Podcast AwardsDaily’s Podcast Takes on Battle of the Sexes and The Best Actress Race 0 Comments BEST PICTUREfeaturedPredictions Friday Predictions Friday – Narrowing it Down with the Oscar Squad 0 Comments BEST PICTUREfeatured Battle of the Sexes – One of the Best Films of the Year, Opens Tomorrow Tags WGA Awards PLEASE NO Are some of the trolling idiots from IMDB going to infest this place with their toxicity? Li Why are you writing about IMDB members? thatpj KIMMY! thatpj Message boards close tomorrow RossoVeneziano ARRIVAL! Will Arrival!!! Rodrigo Great win for Arrival! Aku Max Fences deserved it more Gustavo Heisserer! Sometimes, sometimes these awards bodies do reward work well done. Hoping for a repeat at the Oscars (I still think it’s Moonlight’s to lose, though). Heisserer’s evolution as a screenwriter is astonishing. thatpj YAS ARRIVAL ThePhasmid …or a couple of hours ago. Hal Jordan Arrival!! Please AMPAS, just do the same. Edkargir I hope the academy does not go with Arrival at the oscars. Moonlight the best film of 2016 needs to win adapted screenplay and supporting actor. I hope arrival gets shut out The weakest of the 9 bp nominees Al Robinson Man, these are some great picks! Starting of course with Arrival winning. But after that with OJ, Atlanta, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, and even awarding Aaron Sorkin. Love it. The Social Network is one of my all-time favorite screenplays. MrScreenAddict As Claudiu previously pointed out, the only compelling chance left for a BP upset (statistically speaking) would be a SAG/WGA combo. Obviously, Moonlight’s and Manchester’s hopes of pulling that off were dashed when they lost SAG to Hidden Figures. And Hidden Figures’ hope of pulling that off has been dashed now that it lost WGA to Arrival. For those praying for anything to beat LLL, the statistical window of options has now dwindled to basically nothing. Patrick Downing Arrival was best movie Joseph Interesting that they went with arrival instead of hidden figures. Arrival is a more of visual feast but Amy Adams, Jeremy renner and forest Whitaker gave their best performances at a subsci-fi genre. Lll will win original screenplay. Hal Jordan Well observed ereyethirn I love Arrival, glad it won here, but with Oscar putting Moonlight in adapted I really do hope it wins. Partly I want Barry Jenkins to get on that stage but also Moonlight is such a fantastic movie that is written so well. It totally deserves that. In saying that I’m rooting for Manchester is supporting! That was such a feat of storytelling (from a writing perspective). ereyethirn I think we’ve all been resigned to LLL winning for a while. Even if HF won here its lack of directing support (both dga and oscar) meant it still would have been behind LLL Stat wise. Hal Jordan Someone can tell me if some movie which won the Critics Choice and the WGA lost Screenplay at the Oscars? MrScreenAddict Up In The Air won both BFCA and WGA for Adapted Screenplay and lost the Oscar to Precious. (A travesty, if you ask me.) It also won the Golden Globes’ single Screenplay category over eventual Original Screenplay winner The Hurt Locker, to boot. But that’s the only time, as far as I could tell. MrScreenAddict Original Screenplay: Moonlight!! <3 Wayman Wong That’s 4 different results when ”La La Land,” ”Manchester” & ”Moonlight” have competed: * Broadcast Film Critics: ”La La Land” and ”Manchester” tie. * The Golden Globes: ”La La Land” wins. * BAFTA: ”Manchester” wins. * WGA: ”Moonlight” wins. MrScreenAddict Bizarre. With Moonlight shifting over to Adapted for the Oscars, this did absolutely nothing to clarify the Original Screenplay race. LLL and Manchester are still at one win each and one tie. Thanks, WGA! So helpful. 😛 thatpj Wow! La la loses another but not to Manchester. Very interesting screenplay races. Jigsaw Head I think Manchester isn’t going to win much next week. Life of Pi What do you mean? Hal Jordan This is the most open year in Original Screenplay in decades! I hope the AMPAS do some crazy thing and award Hell or High Water. Adapted Screenplay is still open, but (sadly) Moonlight probably will win. The most crazy thing is that the screenplay categories will be the first to be presented. Patrick Downing Go Bojak Horseman. Wit wins. Joseph Moonlight wins original screenplay. But it’s between la la land and Manchester by the sea. Arrival wins adapted screenplay at the oscars. I’m not being biased here but moonlight wasn’t my cup of tea. It wasn’t anything I’d see again. Arrival was Awesome. It’s time to give a science fiction film a chance at winning adapted screenplay. Al Robinson The award for original goes to Moonlight… D’oh! Great pick, but yeah, shit… It doesn’t tell us anything. Unless it means that AMPAS didn’t vote for either La La Land OR Manchester by the Sea. Maybe The Lobster or Hell or High Water actually wins. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/303710e2d2d881340879cfc7a4c7387c5efc2f8a100656d0cd0b5224872c8194.jpg Nice I like how this season they aren’t giving it to just one movie, it’s sorta shifted around a bit. Hal Jordan Agreed. Moonlight is overrated, even more than La La Land. But Arrival just should be first science fiction movie to win BP. TBA I wonder if Manchester is going to win anything at the Oscars.. Joseph Maybe hohw will win original screenplay in an upset. Will see what happens. thatpj That’s a good question. It lost at 2 guilds were it was the favorite. thatpj Agreed TBA Yeah. I guess they have a shot at Best actor and/or screenplay but the chances are low now. Holden Martinson Seeing Moonlight win Original Screenplay, and thinking, “Oh shit!” The Academy clearly likes the picture. Too bad it’ll be steamrolled by Blah Blah Land–a movie that I actually do like. GregoireNYC A shame because it’s a great film. Casey’s past indiscretions — plus the bummer nature of the film — have broken the momentum. I’d say right now its 50/50 between him and Denzel Washington now. (I fantasize about an Adrian Brody style win for Viggo Mortensen but that’s probably unlikely.) Sandy Beach The website looks so much cleaner and nicer without the boards! GregoireNYC All the movies are over-rated by this time. Moonlight is my favorite film of the year, but no movie can withstand 2 2/12 months of accolades. Citizen Kane would have been considered overrated in this environment. TBA You and me both! I keep hoping that Viggo wins considering how long overdue his Oscar is. However, I still think Casey is going to win because I’m sure the Academy doesn’t care about his personal life I mean they nominated Mel Gibson this year! Wayman Wong It seems odd to close a movie message board just before the Oscars. Wayman Wong Looks like the Make-up Artists & Hair Stylist Guild awards are still going on; they’re tweeting the names of the winners at @Local_706. … Any word on the MPSE Golden Reels tonight? disqus_xxwDaBtW3O The fact that Moonlight overtook favorites Manchester By The Sea and La La Land in Original Screenplay with the WGA, makes it the frontrunner in Adapted Screenplay over Arrival. JimmyJim All this keeps us on our toes. I like it. Spin the roulette wheel. I’m predicting MbtS for OS and Actor. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Ryan Adams Thanks, Wayman! JimmyJim Hidden Figures has too many contrivances to win AS. Arrival is so sensitive and intelligent in its depiction of communication with an alien species and a mother’s undying love. Bryce Forestieri Whoa–excellent winners. Who would have thought these lame-oes would deliver much-needed dignity to the industry awards? Bravo. KD I think Manchester will easily win now that Moonlight has moved to Adapted at the Oscars. La La Land could have easily won out here because of vote-splitting between the 2 high-profile dramas…it was the alternative choice. Manchester at the Sea has BAFTA + BFCA while La La Land has GG + BFCA (in a tie with Manchester . Neither GG nor BFCA are industry awards. BAFTA is, to a certain degree, and that gives Manchester a slight edge. But who knows? Joseph Tom one ill at gold derby says that a musical hasn’t won a screenplay award since an American in Paris. I’m sticking with mbts for original screenplay. Switching to arrival for adapted screenplay. I just did not get moonlight for some reason. disqus_xxwDaBtW3O It did tell us Moonlight’s popularity with WGA. MrScreenAddict Gigi won a screenplay award seven years after An American In Paris; perhaps he means specifically in the Original Screenplay category. Despite the fact that it’s an original musical, Gigi won in the Adapted Screenplay category since it was based on a novella. MrScreenAddict Moonlight is competing in Adapted at the Oscars. I said “this did absolutely nothing to clarify the *Original* Screenplay race.” disqus_xxwDaBtW3O My point – the WGA did reveal Moonlight’s popularity. The fact it was a surprise win in OS over favorites MBTS and LLL, makes it a huge threat to win AS at the Oscars. Wayman Wong Yer welcome, Ryan! Some of the movie winners are finally starting to appear, and they include ”Hail, Caesar!,” ”Suicide Squad” and ”La La Land.” MrScreenAddict That’s great. But since I was only taking about the Original category, I have no idea why you responded to me. Wayman Wong As if they weren’t handing out enough awards tonight in Southern Calif., the L.A. Italia Film, Fashion and Art Fest, which celebrates Italian and American artists, gave out these prizes: * Song of the Year: Justin Hurwitz for ”City of Stars.” (What about Pasek & Paul?) * Director of the Year: Mel Gibson for ”Hacksaw Ridge.” * Child Performer of the Year: Sunny Pawar for ”Lion.” Why an Italian-American festival in Hollywood would need to honor them is beyond me … Martin Asare Manchester by the sea got zero during the guild awards, I guess the industry is not feeling the movie. From the awards show podcast, one of them was talking about they don’t like the movie and Casey. Even an academy voter just voted for Denzel even though Fences was not the best. Wayman Wong To keep things in context: There are 6,687 members of the Academy. Only 406 belong to the Writers branch, and they’re easily outnumbered by other branches: Sound (456), Directors (473), Animation (479), etc. Joseph Never seen Gigi period. An American in Paris is a classic though. Scott Robert I saw both Manchester and LLL again yesterday and, on the topic of scripts, I never realized just how masterful Manchester is, while LLL left a pretty lackluster impression. Manchester: literally every character (the hockey coach, the two different teen girlfriends, etc) is fleshed out even with the tiniest bits of dialogue. The humor that punctuates the heavy scenes at just the right time… the way the **SPOILER ALERT** scene with the fire is edited into the scene with the estate advisor… such a brilliantly written film. La La Land: they’re both allegedly “dreamers” yet are two of the most cynical people. Their motivations are so confusing (the one-woman show doesn’t sell out, yet a casting agent loved it, and you refuse to go?), we know absolutely nothing about the lives of the two, or what makes them the way they are (aside from one line about Mia’s aunt, there’s nothing that depicts them having a passion for their craft, other than saying it). There are too many little things that are just “off”, like Mia never exchanges numbers with Sebastian, they just assume they’ll both show up at the movie theater? Mia is shocked to see The Messengers break into EDM pop music with flashing lights and dancers – as if Sebastian never once mentioned to her what his band even does? Mia just walks out on dinner with her boyfriend, offering no explanation, yet we’re expected to be so wrapped up in the *emotion* of that scene that we go along with her? Her parents live about 2 hours away, but don’t come see their daughters one woman show? And the biggest offense: the use of singing/dancing/fantasy sequences are done almost purely for the “look”, and have a very faux relation to the narrative of the story. It’s never clearly explained if the characters are genuinely breaking into song and dance (ex: Grease, West Side Story), or if it’s supposed to be a fantastical expression of their inner thought and emotions, and meant to be just an avant-garde explosion (ex: Moulin Rouge) – or something in between, (ex: Chicago). Upon second viewing of LLL, I think I picked up that the whole point is they’re these big dreamers, who believe that hard work and passion can lead to success manifested – and that’s depicted through the use of all the colorful song and dance that pop up when the two are experiencing something so grand. That some of the fantasy sequences are meant to be a surrealist/magical expression of their feelings (such as floating in the observatory, and breaking into song during her final audition). Though, other moments seem to be literal song and dance numbers (on the hill top at sunset, the opening traffic jam), so… which is it? A combo of both? If so, the film isn’t wild and fantastical enough to be truly surreal (like Moulin Rouge), nor are the musical sequences justified as purely imagined, and merely and expression of emotion (Chicago). I think Chazelle had a lot of interesting ideas for shots and sequences, but he didn’t make a point to justify why they matter. TL;DR: LLL has such a messy, amateurish script that I’ll be appalled if it wins the Oscar. Period Money. TBA If they were going to vote for someone other than Casey and didn’t care for Denzel then why not Viggo who not only gave a great performance but also deserves an Oscar? These “voters” are beyond my understanding. ereyethirn I was all on board with your sentiment until Sunny Pawar… I know hes not Italian but he’s not an american and hes such an inspired choice there! ereyethirn i think its fair to say the Academy isnt going to match the WGA this year! Wayman Wong A few weeks ago, Scott Feinberg at the Hollywood Reporter made a great case for reviving the Juvenile Oscar. Between 1935 and 1961, the Board of Governors had the discretion to give out honorary Oscars to young performers under 18. Among their honorees: Shirley Temple, Mickey Rooney, Judy Garland, Margaret O’Brien and Hayley Mills. Feinberg urged to Academy to revive it in time to honor Pawar on Feb. 26. I sure wish they’d do it! http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/why-academy-should-bring-back-juvenile-oscar-968305 ereyethirn Yeah I follow Scott and read that a whIle back… It’s a really good piece and I strongly agree, Sunny Pawar totally deserves it! daveinprogress Some interesting points of criticism of La La Land, Scott. It was good to read some considered perspectives on it, and not the endless gush about the movie and how it is so fresh and original. I have said for weeks that the screenplay is the weakest part of the movie and what prevents it from being a masterpiece. Charm and sweetness and slick goes only so far….. Wayman Wong Too bad the Academy didn’t embrace Sunny with an Oscar nomination, like they did with Quvenzhane Wallis (”Beasts of the Southern Wild”), but their track record with recognizing boys is pretty abysmal. By the way, Feinberg got to meet Sunny at the Hollywood Reporter’s Nominees Party, and presented the adorable kid with a statuette. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeiLvPfu1-8 Scott Robert Thanks, I hate to ramble on about a film that I don’t like (better to praise what you do like, in my opinion), but I absolutely adore both musicals, and surrealist/avant-garde art so when it comes to things like this I take them very seriously. Another thing I don’t really get: the script is getting so much praise for being an original musical, but the songs themselves are pretty basic. The audition has some touching lyrics, but the rest are all just cliched rhymes. Aside from the fact that it’s an original work, I don’t see what’s so spectacular about it. daveinprogress Yes the songs are all pleasant. Pleasant doesn’t equal greatness. Emma’s singing is fine, Ryan’s not so much. You’re spot on about Chazelle mixing up moments of fantasy (production wise and treatment) with others of ordinary experience. It’s a mish mash for sure. Enjoyable and sweet, and I was charmed by it, darn it! But left feeling – a bit ripped off and bemused by all the hoopla that has surrounded it. Especially as I thought Whiplash was daring and edgy and visceral. But all that charm…….:) Martin Asare Are you really serious? I think people underestimate Denzel’s performance because is Denzel. He makes it so easy, just imagine another actor did that. What will people say about that performance Idle Time Surprised and respect to the WGA for making the right choices in both categories. I have often said that the writers take their votes the most seriously. They don’t tick the boxes haphazardly. I’m over the moon about Moonlight’s win. The movie *is* beloved indeed. I expected Manchester to take it, but this confirms its weakness that I detected a while back. I’m a bit surprised that Arrival won b/c sci-fi rarely wins, but since another poster had pointed out Inception’s win, I increased Arrival’s chance. While not a favorite, it is the most complex script out of all the nominees. I wonder how Claudiu see the race now, now that Moonlight would not have to break a stat he deems important to its road toward BP. Wayman Wong I’d say those ”contrivances” & its artistic liberties with history are what make ”Hidden Figures” the feel-good, self-congratulatory crowd-pleaser it is. 😉 Khazija I am elated that Barry Jenkins and Tarell won for their beautiful, inspiring, and poignant script for Moonlight. Moonlight is underrated and I need to state that in response to certain snarkiness below. The dialogue was realistic and the audience got to feel Chiron’s struggles by experiencing it. Khazija Moonlight will probably win for Adapted Screenply and rightfully so. This will bring many people tons of happiness. BS No I am not serious… I just responded to what you think is happening with the academy voting. Wayman Wong ”Gigi” is definitely worth seeing. The plot of grooming a young lady to be a courtesan and the song ”Thank Heaven for Little Girls” might seem dated, but the lovely Lerner & Loewe score is gorgeous: ”The Night They Invented Champagne,” ”I Remember It Well” and the title tune. Vincente Minnelli’s re-creation of turn-of-the-century Paris is stunning, with Cecil Beaton’s incredible costumes. Add in Leslie Caron, Louis Jourdan and Maurice Chevalier. It was nominated for 9 Oscars and won all of ’em. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEofRODHZ1w Khazija Denzel truly deserves to win Best Actor. He gave a powerful performance. Martin Asare Academy voting is always about politics Khazija Brilliant analysis. Sammy This result shows the late surge of Moonlight ! Sammy It is in a better position than Braveheart and similar to Spotlight. The thing is it beats its major competition in a big guild !!! Henrique Cabral This. Agreed! Also, while I admit I havent been reading this website as much as I used to, can someone tell on why Moonlight got put in Adapted at the Oscars, but Original at the WGA? Sammy AMPAS deems scripts based on unpublished material as adapted. Sammy With this unexpected win now Moonlight becomes a serious threat for BP Oscar. La La Land is the favorite but with its SAG snub and WGA defeat, it has only around a 60% chance for BP victory. Moonlight lies in second with a 35% chance for BP victory. All other movies has 5%… aroncido Just curious: how the hell did you come up with exactly those probabilities? Sammy Good maths !! Sammy You think 60% is too much for 3L?? If you interpret that Hidden Figures’ SAG win as a fluke, Moonlight overtakes 3L for getting the lead !! Andrew Doesn’t change the BP race but good to see LLL lose this, doesn’t deserve it. Shame Moonlight is in adapted so can’t beat LLL for the Oscar. Think Lion is a bigger threat to Moonlight in adapted than Arrival, but Moonlight is the strong favorite Sammy Screenplay race is done, Andrew. Lion has no chance, sorry. Li There’s an interesting article at Huffpo: Why didn’t you see Moonlight? And I think it’s directed at the Black Community because let’s face it – the Black community could have propelled the Boxo. .http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/moonlight-movie_us_589ca0c9e4b0c1284f2b1206 The comments are interesting. Li I can’t remember one song from LLL except City of Stars or Dreams or whatever it is. I honestly expected MORE music than the movie gave us, because it’s a “musical” and I equated it to a Broadway musical, there song is every 10 minutes or so. Li Child Performer of the Year ^^ It’s past time for the Oscars to include this as a category. Li I think the problem with Manchester is that NO ONE IS campaigning for that movie. Not Michelle, not Casey. I haven’t seen them anywhere or in interviews. Could be an AMZ problem. But also – Casey is not an “interesting” personality. He pops up in movies here and there, but he’s hardly a big identifiable name, besides being the brother of Ben. Henrique Cabral Thank you RossoVeneziano So they went political. Poor Kenny Lonergan. What a shame. He’s going home empty-handed on Oscar night. RossoVeneziano I hope Arrival beats Moonlight because in no way Jenkins deserves an Oscar for writing. The weakest aspect of his movie. Talk about cinematography and directing and maybe score if you wanna praise Moonlight. Definitely not writing and not acting. RossoVeneziano Dream on. RossoVeneziano Underrated? LOL It’s the best reviewed picture of the year. Koleś If Arrival wins Best Adapted Screenplay I’m going to get gloriously drunk. It’s going to be around 3.00 or 4.00 A.M. where I’ll be watching it, but who the fuck cares. I’ll call in sick. This particular win deserves a huge celebration. Sammy It will be against Moonlight !!! Sammy Jenkins deserves an Oscar for both writing and directing, imho ! Koleś I know, but I’m not loosing hope. To me Arrival was the best written movie last year. Sammy I agree. But you know the facts: a sci-fi movie + going against a BP frontrunner (USC Scripter winner). Tough task !! Idle Time One thing: LLL didn’t win the industry awards. Idle Time Spotlight won both WGA and SAG though. And Braveheart did win ACE as well. Koleś I know it is a long shot, but it’s not like it has not happened before. The Hours won both the WGA and USC Scripter, was going into the race with 9 Oscar nominations, but still managed to loose screenplay to The Pianist (with 7 nominations) Same goes for Up in the Air. WGA + USC + BAFTA + 6 nods, but lost to Precious. Like I say – it’s a long shot, but not an unprecedented one. John While this SUCKS for trying to figure out which of LLL/Manchester has the lead for the Oscar race, what I think this shows MORE SO … is that Moonlight is pretty beloved. Knowing that Moonlight is in Adapted for the Oscars, I think the WGA voters wanted to ensure that it WON because they love it … no matter which category it’s placed in. I think this result means more for Moonlight “love” than it does for “well, which will win Original at the Oscars?!? LLL or Manchester!?!?” More than anything else, I just think they just wanted a Moonlight win, here. John Agreed. And we all know he likely losing Director to Chazelle. John Lion has strength. Clearly. I just wonder if Lion/Hidden Figures/Arrival votes have enough to overcome the Moonlight strength. I just don’t know. Idle Time Arrival is no Pianist. That one got a late surge and won director and actor. Sammy Moonlight won GG Drama !! Sammy Very good analysis, John. Idle Time I don’t think LLL has a chance at the Oscars. Its better shot was here because there was a chance that the two serious movies would split the votes. Manchester is still the favorite. LLL hasn’t won an industry award for screenplay. Manchester has. Idle Time GG is a bit of old news at this point and is non-industry. Koleś How about winning the WGA? Does that count as a late surge? 🙂 I agree same goes for Moonlight and thanks to this little category kerfuffle these movies will be duking it out in the original. But still, Moonlight has 8, Arrival has 8. Moonlight has the upper hand with a Globe win for Best Drama, Scripter and a screenplay nomination at the Globes (something the Arrival does not have), but I still think it’s pretty close. Certainly not a lock, especially considering that other three nominated movies are still very much in the game. Lion won BAFTA and is very much liked across the board, right now it’s impossible for this movie to leave without at least one Oscar. Same goes for Hidden Figures, a very much liked movie. Shit, even Fences stands a chance with Denzel metioning August Wilson’s name among other genious playwrights every time he get’s a chance to do so. A posthumous award over 12 years afer the authors death? It’s very tempting. To me this one is all over the place and quite frankly can go either way. Moonlight might be the frontrunner, but category confusion never helps. Idle Time How about winning the WGA? Does that count as a late surge? Not when the heavy favorite wasn’t competing in your category. When these two movies were going h2h in the same category, Moonlight won. USC Scripter is a very good bellwether for the Oscars. And the fact that Moonlight defeated the two favorites in the other category, it shows that its frontrunner status is not waning. And Arrival’s recent win shows that it’s probably a strong second place. Ferdinand Or maybe this is bad for Manchester because it couldn’t win even with the writers and La La Land will get more votes when everyone gets to vote because people are voting for it in best picture even though it’s not that good a screenplay. And BAFTA isn’t always the best predictor of the screenplay categories whereas the Globe has missed only twice in the previous 10 years Claudiu Cristian Dobre HOLY CRAP!!!… That just happened!… Super-interesting and, in Arrival’s case, SUPER-AWESOME! 🙂 My favorite win of this awards season so far… This is the one I wanted the most for it to win. It probably can’t beat Moonlight at the Oscars, but it’s great that it won here – I’m genuinely happy at the moment! As for Moonlight winning… some quick thoughts: big sign of overall support, since this wasn’t expected (it lost to both La La Land and Manchester by the Sea in this category at the only other major awards ceremonies they competed together, so nobody can tell me this was expected UNLESS one thinks Moonlight is a genuine BP challenger to La La Land!) I didn’t expect it, that’s for sure. Also, of course, now Moonlight has the Braveheart precedent, and is probably in a better position than that one, statistically. Also, the preferential system isn’t a disadvantage either, most likely. Of course, one must not overreact… but, at first sight, this seems very threatening! I’ll be looking at the stats and precedents shortly to figure out more clearly what this means, but my first reaction is: SHIT JUST GOT REAL AGAIN in the Oscar race!… Idle Time I think it’s logical to think that most of the Moonlight votes would go to Manchester rather than LLL. Talkative movies have the edge over musicals. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Plenty of great and smart movie lovers at IMDb too – hopefully we get a bunch of those instead of the trolls!… Idle Time Haha. I’ve been waiting for your reaction. Of course, one must not overreact… Famous last words around here. 🙂 Claudiu Cristian Dobre “Sometimes, sometimes these awards bodies do reward work well done. Hoping for a repeat at the Oscars (I still think it’s Moonlight’s to lose, though). Heisserer’s evolution as a screenwriter is astonishing.” This! All this!… Hal Jordan But Moonlight is by far the most overrated. I didn’t see nothing special in that movie. The universal acclaim is just because the movie meets the racial and LGBT agenda. But it’s just my opinion. Hal Jordan Well said. BAFTA isn’t a bad predictor in Original Screenplay. For example, they were one of the few who predicted Talk to Her in 2003. Ferdinand They missed 4 of the previous 10 winners and while they got Habla con ella correctly that year, they awarded Amèlie the year before and The Station Agent (not even Oscar nominated) the year after M. Murtaza Murad totally agreed!! moonlight has the easiest screenplay of all. Hal Jordan The LLL victory at the GG was bullshit. They just wanted to do something that has never been seen before giving everything to LLL. Besides, since they awarded Steve Jobs, the screenplay category of the Globes isn’t a good predictor anymore. Claudiu Cristian Dobre There aren’t many WGA-only BP winners, it’s true – apart from Braveheart, there’s also Around the World in 80 Days, which lost the DGA to Giant (no snubs for the latter, by the way), and, in my opinion, definitely would not have won the SAG, had it been awarded at the time (it might have won the PGA, but it’s not clear at all – Giant and The King and I both had more Oscar noms that year, for example); then there’s An American in Paris, which wasn’t even DGA-nominated (A Place in the Sun, again no snubs, won that one) and was, if I remember well enough, also a bit of a two-hander, like La La Land, so it probably would not have won, or maybe even been nominated for, the SAG – the PGA again would have been unclear that year, and An American in Paris also had two movies with more nominations, and one tied with it in third place). Those are the only ones. But there are examples. There’s a small chance… Had Manchester won this, as I’d expected, with the editing snub, things would have been somewhat clearer. As it is, I think La La Land is probably still the favorite, maybe even still a clear one, but I’m not as sure as before that an upset isn’t a serious possibility. (I wasn’t very confident before, either, but I’m even less so now.) The SAG snub still nags, however excusable… There’s definitely going to be a sweat now on Oscar night up until the very end, unless Ali loses and Moonlight only wins screenplay, or not even that. I need to check how many movies with no snubs won the WGA alone and lost BP (I can think of two right away – The Descendants and The Social Network) but even then, I’m not sure how many won it in the same category as the BP winner that year. That’s tricky. I also need to check how strong their opposition was, how many were up against PGA+DGA winners only, and so on… I also need to check how those years all compare to the Braveheart year, as well as, perhaps, the other two I mentioned above. I’ll return with my conclusions shortly. It’s a bit of a mess of possibilities and precedents in my head right now, so don’t take anything I say before performing my research as in any way final! I could change my mind entirely… 🙂 M. Murtaza Murad So true, I also picked some of these flaws in LLL. It’s just creative work, clearly style over substance. Idle Time Also, GG doesn’t have 2 categories in screenplay, so its predictive power would naturally be better. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Good point! Probably true… Sammy “Also, of course, now Moonlight has the Braveheart precedent, and is probably in a better position than that one, statistically.” Correct. Moonlight is also a more critically acclaimed movie than Braveheart. Hal Jordan Usually, when the BAFTA doesn’t predict the Oscar is when they just want to have a different choice or when the Oscar winner isn’t nominated there. It never happened in a open year. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Agree with everything, except, with typical selfishness, I want Arrival to repeat (poor Jenkins, he does deserve something for that movie), because it’s my favorite and easily the best screenplay of the year, in my opinion… (But Moonlight will obviously win, since it won the tougher category at the WGA, so you’re the one who’ll get his wish, most probably!) Claudiu Cristian Dobre Yeah, but the category mix-up makes that stat probably unreliable this year… Claudiu Cristian Dobre Yup – weird! Hal Jordan Yes, yes, yes! I agree. But we certainly are a minority here. Ferdinand Of course. That is exactly why I think it winning the Globe is so important. They loved it so much that they were ready to award it with even screenplay. The BFCA, the other precursor where La La Land pretty much swept, also awarded La La Land for screenplay. If La La Land sweeps, I think it’ll probably win. If it underperforms, like at BAFTA, Manchester will be a more likely winner Claudiu Cristian Dobre Exactly. Seems pretty clear now it’s not winning screenplay. M. Murtaza Murad I watched Moonlight twice and the only thing I came to like about it was its music…. that’s all. It’s a severely hollow movie so you’re right about it. Claudiu Cristian Dobre I think they’re pretty dead, actually – Manchester and Moonlight very likely to win. (Maybe La La can challenge Manchester, but I’m not feeling it anymore.) Claudiu Cristian Dobre Agree with every word you just said. 🙂 Claudiu Cristian Dobre I definitely don’t agree that it’s hollow!… It’s super-rich with psychological content and tension. Idle Time First, GG and BFCA are non-industry voters. GG went apeshit over a movie this year is quite unprecedented so we don’t know what that truly means. In the past, when they went apeshit (to a slightly lesser degree), it doesn’t necessarily bode well for that movie. BFCA is also unprecedented this year as well. It moved its awards to a month earlier. Its predictive power this year is still in question. M. Murtaza Murad Not for me. John Thanks, Sammy. I also love everyone else’s thoughts in this thread 🙂 Claudiu Cristian Dobre I LOVE Gigi! It doesn’t even seem dated to me, to be honest. 🙂 Claudiu Cristian Dobre The Night They Invented Champagne is such an awesome number – and great chemistry between the leads, in my opinion! Hal Jordan The psychological content isn’t interesting and sorry but it has no tension. MrScreenAddict It’s interesting that Braveheart’s sole guild win was at the WGA, and then it went on to upset for BP but *lost* that Screenplay award — which had been its only precursor — to The Usual Suspects. (Was The Usual Suspects perhaps not eligible at WGA that year? Does anyone know?) Anyway, I think calling a sole WGA win “very threatening” is a bit of an overreaction. Maybe in a more divided field it would be… like last year, when the top three guilds had gone to three different movies. But against a film that has won the BFCA, HFPA, PGA, DGA, and BAFTA? I don’t see it. To me, Moonlight’s win here was only surprising because of category confusion. Most of us didn’t see it coming because we assumed that one of the films that would actually be competing in Original Screenplay at the Oscars would win. But Moonlight won the USC Scripter, so is its victory really all that shocking? I think the only thing this really tells us is: Manchester continues to underperform with the guilds (its total wins remain at zero), and screenplays for musicals continue to go un-awarded, just like they have since Gigi in 1958. The only question is, with Moonlight out of the category at the Oscars, will it be the movie that’s been weak with the industry, or the genre with a weak track record that prevails? Or could a third option entirely sneak through this generally weak and very scattered category for the win? (It would be great to see HOHW go home with one trophy.) In any case, I think we can lock Moonlight in for that Adapted win. M. Murtaza Murad yes exactly, where was the tension? Claudiu Cristian Dobre Great post, sir! Claudiu Cristian Dobre 🙂 Yeah – in either category. Weird!… Hal Jordan I don’t know. Maybe when Chiron breakes a chair in the bully. That was the only part I was a little bit impressed in that movie. Claudiu Cristian Dobre There is a stat it has to break – having to win the PGA or SAG or DGA. The WGA has only been enough less than 5% of the time (Braveheart since all three have existed, and two more before that.) Moonlight is still a dog, but it’s a much more likely one to upset after this… I’ll have to study a number of stats and precedents before I make final pronouncements (I’ll, of course, return with my conclusions), but this is my first impression, based on what I already know by heart and don’t need to check. Claudiu Cristian Dobre It’s in worse shape than Spotlight. Better opposition, no SAG win… Lost the BFCA too, which is a lot more predictive than the GG’s. But it’s not much worse off (Spotlight had the ACE snub, after all.) Relatively, given La La Land’s strength, it probably is worse off, though. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Better meaning stronger. Claudiu Cristian Dobre “With this unexpected win now Moonlight becomes a serious threat for BP Oscar.” Agreed. Your percentages seem reasonable as well. Maybe a bit too much for Moonlight, but I can’t really say until I’ve studied the stats in-depth (which I will do as soon as I’m done reading the comments to this article.) Claudiu Cristian Dobre HF’s SAG win being a bit of a fluke seems like a very serious possibility at the moment… MrScreenAddict “Relatively, given La La Land’s strength, it probably is worse off, though.” Exactly this. Despite its relatively weak precursors, Spotlight benefitted from being in a year that was the most scattered in recent memory, with PGA and DGA and SAG all going to different films. Moonlight, with only a WGA win, doesn’t even have that advantage, with LLL dominating absolutely everything else. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Of course, La La Land’s SAG snub is also probably a fluke, so you can’t really use that argument to say Moonlight is ahead. Just that it’s strong… Claudiu Cristian Dobre Same here! (Except I don’t drink. But I’ll be drunk with happiness, that’s for sure!…) Claudiu Cristian Dobre By far. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Exactly! Big sign of strength… It remains to be seen whether it’s enough strength to take down La La Land for BP. Probably not… Claudiu Cristian Dobre I do think it has a chance, but I don’t think it’s the favorite, or that it will win. Manchester will. Claudiu Cristian Dobre I’d agree with that if it hadn’t also won the BFCA. But, no, since it did (tied, but still), and it also won 2-3 critics awards for screenplay, it remains a possibility to win, though of course not the favorite. Ferdinand About the BFCA win, I think that La La Land actually would have won over Manchester at BFCA if the ceremony would have been held around Oscar nominations time (but of course can’t prove it). By that time the film would have won the Globe for screenplay and I’d imgaine that some people would have felt that that was validation for them to award La La Land over Manchester and it would have made them think that it’s the Oscar frontrunner for the film to win in the category. Manchester is as likely and perhaps even more likely than La La Land to win screenplay but I don’t think that you can say that La La Land doesn’t have a shot at the Oscar win. Claudiu Cristian Dobre “Anyway, I think calling a sole WGA win “very threatening” is a bit of an overreaction.” The threatening thing is that it was unexpected. Braveheart’s was too. And it was in the same category as the front-runner for BP. Same as Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan in 1999, for example. Again, probably won’t be enough, I agree with that. Not winning the PGA or SAG or DGA is probably still the stronger stat. (More on that once I compare some things.) But to think it doesn’t show a lot of support for Moonlight in general is, I think, what would be an overreaction. 🙂 Like I said, it lost in this category to both La La Land and Manchester this year, every single time. (Major precursors.) It’s possible this is just a sign that they don’t like Manchester at all – but then why was Hedges nominated, and why didn’t the WGA give La La Land, a GG/BFCA winner, the original screenplay award instead? Just because it’s a musical? That sounds far-fetched. “But Moonlight won the USC Scripter, so is its victory really all that shocking?” It didn’t beat 3L or Manchester there, though. It had never beaten them anywhere except critics awards (even there it didn’t dominate) up until this point. “In any case, I think we can lock Moonlight in for that Adapted win.” More or less… Claudiu Cristian Dobre Or I guess that would be an “underreaction”, or something like that… 🙂 Idle Time I don’t disagree. But that just proves BFCA’s bullshitness. Its taste is not necessarily aligning with AMPAS’s. It’s just trying to predict the Oscars, so that it can appear relevant. And now it’s moved further away from the Oscars, its guess can only be worse and not improved. Claudiu Cristian Dobre “Of course, one must not overreact… Famous last words around here.” 🙂 Something like that… One must neither overreact nor “underreact” – which isn’t easy to do of course! MrScreenAddict But it’s not like Moonlight’s win at the WGA upset a status quo or defeated a firm frontrunner, either. It’s been an unsettled category all season, so seeing another permutation shouldn’t really be that surprising. Every single time LLL, Manchester, and Moonlight have competed against each other, there’s been a completely different result: BFCA — LLL/Manchester tie HFPA — LLL win BAFTA — Manchester win WGA — Moonlight win If we’re talking just industry wins, then Manchester has won once and Moonlight has won once. If we’re talking all major precursors, then both LLL and Manchester still remain stronger than Moonlight. I simply don’t see how a sole WGA win suddenly rockets Moonlight to “very threatening” status in the Best Picture race. Ferdinand I wonder how we’d be reacting to these winners if Moonlight was in original screenplay at the Oscars Sammy WGA is the real deal I would say ! BFCA — LLL/Manchester tie (held way too early) HFPA — LLL win (part of a sweep) BAFTA — Manchester win (Moonlight was snubbed in directing, editing) WGA — Moonlight win Idle Time Excellent question. Claudiu Cristian Dobre We’ll have to agree to disagree. I, for one, am not sure I’ve seen a more emotionally complex movie this year. And slow movies aren’t my thing as much as for critics, in general. Some I like, if I think they’re rich in psychological subtext, like I did with Moonlight, some I really, really dislike, if I think they’re mostly empty. (Like you did with it.) It’s probably subjective, anyway. 🙂 Some stuff resonates with some of us, some with others… Claudiu Cristian Dobre We very much disagree on both counts. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Yup. In relative terms, it’s probably even worse off than Braveheart (since Apollo 13 had dominated the guilds, but had an un-excusable BD snub and hadn’t won any other major precursors, as far as I can remember – Sense and Sensibility had won the Globe over both.) Art Vandelay This makes me so happy. Thank you, WGA! Best guild picks of the season. I only wish both of these incredible scripts could win Oscars. There is a glimmer of hope for Moonlight making some unexpected noise next weekend. Claudiu Cristian Dobre I agree it may not be huge, like I said. But it is significant. Again, the very significant bit is that it’s in the same category as La La Land. BP winners rarely lose their WGA category to another movie, especially one with no major precursor support in that category. Can you find another example? I can’t, off the top of my head. There probably are some, but not many and not recent. I know for a fact this hasn’t happened for at least 11 years, when the BP winner was eligible at the WGA. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Maybe they tie for adapted! 🙂 Khazija WGA put it in the original category due the play being unproduced at the time. Khazija Moonlight’s screenplay is more realistic, complex, and multi-faceted than people give it credit for. It wasn’t easy to adapt it from the play it was based on, either. It operates on a different wavelength than the other nominees in this category which had more conventional scripts. Idle Time I thought you had included WGA in that group. Sigh! Had ML won SAG like statistically it should, things would be a lot more exciting in the race right now. Khazija Yes, he does deserve an Oscar for writing given the nuanced and complex nature of the script which tackles difficult subject matters in a distinctive way. The dialogue is realistic and suited to the circumstances. There is no heavy-handedness or pretentiousness. The performances in Moonlight were exceptional across the board. Mahershala Ali and Naomie Harris defied stereotypes. They were transcendant and transformative in their roles. Trevante, Janelle, Alex Hibbert, and Ashton Sanders were all raw and great in their parts. Idle Time “Easiest”? I think you’re mistaking “easy” with “effortless”. Making things look easy is often achieved through high skill and intelligence. Professional writers know this more than others. Khazija No, they went with the film that has sociocultural significance and was masterfully written with a lot of emotional resonance. Acting like it won only due to ‘political’ reasons is not fair at all. Khazija Many people are mocking its qualities and much of the opposition keeps claiming it is overrated. MrScreenAddict To be fair, in the last 11 years, four BP winners have been ineligible for WGA, which is over a third of the time. That’s gonna skew the results quite a bit. I just looked back 20 years, and five times the BP winner was ineligible, five times the BP winner lost to another film, and 10 times the BP winner won its category. So in that sample, WGA and BP only match up 50% of the time. Claudiu Cristian Dobre “Had ML won SAG like statistically it should, things would be a lot more exciting in the race right now.” Indeed – I’d have to predict it… Claudiu Cristian Dobre But with just the WGA… It doesn’t look half as good. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Aha – so 5/15. That’s more than I expected, I’ll admit! Interesting… I’ll look back further to see how it looks more long-term. (The years with significant ineligibilities can just be ignored. It’s not ideal, but it’s not logically wrong, either, in my opinion. That’s what I do.) Claudiu Cristian Dobre I told you I might change my mind entirely. 🙂 I’ll still think Moonlight has a clearly better shot than before, though. Dan Feeney Why do you keep insisting, like the alt right, that anything about black people or minorities or women is “political”, but everything about white people is not? That’s utterly ridiculous. Every cultural/artistic product is political. Khazija No, the film is a sublime and raw piece of art that people can empathize with as far as Chiron’s struggles with his environment and identity. The film deals with this in a distinctive and art house style. Nothing about the film is overrated. Don’t even get me started on comparing to the other films because I don’t want to critique the others by starting a major debate. Moonlight has far more substance and weight than La La Land does. Moonlight tackles subject matters like race, bullying, persecution, sexuality identity, coming of age, and different kinds of love in a compelling way. It does it by drawing you into the emotions of the characters in a naturalistic sense. Using cards and twisting that as to why the film has support, is not correct at all. There have been many films with lgbt characters or themes as well as minorities but not all of them receive acclaim. MrScreenAddict Yep. • Million Dollar baby lost to Sideways (as it did at the Oscars) • LOTR:ROTK lost to American Splendor (though it won at the Oscars) • Chicago lost to The Hours (though it lost to The Pianist at the Oscars) • Titanic lost to As Good As It Gets (though it wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars, and AGAIG lost to Good Will Hunting there) • The English Patient lost to Sling Blade (as it did at the Oscars) Khazija Severely hollow? The opposite is true. It has emotional and sociocultural depth with a nuanced complexity by dealing with many difficult subject matters in an authentic way. Khazija The entire scope of the film is psychologically rooted in the coming of age of this character with his journey. There is tension laced throughout the film between different characters. My lord, you didn’t connect with this profound film. MrScreenAddict Looking back another 12 years (because before that the categories were split between Drama and Comedy, confusing things even further), here are even more examples: • Unforgiven lost to The Crying Game (as it did at the Oscars) • Rain Man lost to Bull Durham (though it won at the Oscars) • The Last Emperor lost to Moonstruck (though they competed in different categories at the Oscars) • Platoon lost to Hannah And Her Sisters (as it did at the Oscars) • Out Of Africa lost to Prizzi’s Honor (though it won at the Oscars) Discounting years in which the BP winner was ineligible, that’s 10/26 times that the BP winner lost the WGA to another film. Khazija The film is deeply charged with the exploration of Chiron’s identity on a visceral level where he see his struggles and experiences which lead to a certain outcome in life. The film is bold in dealing with this subject matter in a naturalistic way. For people who grew up in the projects or inner city, we can relate to Chiron’s struggles and pain. We can understand how authentic it feels. There is nothing cowardly about Moonlight. The film is rich is multi-layered subtext without going into heavy-handed dialogue or exposition. It is not up to the viewer to empathize with the characters. It feels like you are actually there watching segments of Chiron’s life. Khazija Moonlight had impressive acting, writing, and cinematography. Not every film needs over the top action and there are lot of emotional subtleties. It is all about connecting with Chiron. Khazija Where is the tension? There is palpable tension that exists practically in every scene. Whether it be tension between Chiron and the bully, or between Juan/Paula, or between Chiron and his best friend Kevin, or between Chiron/Paula. We witness tension with every dynamic in the film and interaction. Claudiu Cristian Dobre I know. I’ve been looking at the same period. 🙂 Do you know how many movies with zero industry snubs (BAFTA not counted – as you know, that’s my method) won the WGA over the BP winner in this period, 1985-2016? None. 🙂 All of those had some sort of a big snub (a number of them precisely the ACE snub; some weren’t even BP-nominated, of course.) That’s the interesting part (which I had intuited before checking), and the reason I was saying Moonlight’s WGA win over La La Land is significantly more telling than the average lone WGA win by a strong BP contender. How much more is the big question, of course! Will have to look at precedents more closely before I can begin to answer that! Idle Time Excellent article. Thanks for posting. But the article misses the homophobia aspect that keeps the film such as this from doing better at the b.o. because Precious, a film about the abject reality of a lot of African Americans, earned twice as much. Steven Kane Lonergan is not up against Jenkins for original screenplay on Oscar night. Steven Kane I was so mad when UitA lost adapted screenplay, one of the surest awards of the whole night and one of the most deserved. Steven Kane “The universal acclaim is just because the movie meets the racial and LGBT agenda.” That. Has. Nothing. to do with the acclaim. if that were the case then every LGBTQ movie would be nearing 100 on Metacritic. I know it’s your opinion but so many movies “fitting that agenda” are 80 or lower on MC and even hundreds, thousands of movies aren’t reviewed by some of the biggest publications. Wayman Wong The Broadcast Film Critics liked ”La La Land” plenty; it won 8 of its 12 nominations, including Best Picture and Director (and a tie for Screenplay). By contrast, ”Manchester” won 3 of its 7 BFCA nominations, and ”Moonlight” went 2 for 10. Claudiu Cristian Dobre All instances (since 1985, when the WGA categories first took the form they have maintained to this day) of a BP winner losing to another BP nominee at the WGA: Million Dollar Baby lost to Sideways (no editing nom, SAG winner) Chicago lost to The Hours (no PGA nom) Titanic lost to As Good As It Gets (no SAG ensemble nom, no directing nom) Unforgiven lost to The Crying Game (no ACE nom, PGA winner) The Last Emperor lost to Moonstruck (no ACE/Oscar editing noms, no DGA nom) Platoon lost to Hannah and Her Sisters (no ACE nom) Out of Africa lost to Prizzi’s Honor (no ACE nom) First, that’s only 7 instances in 32 years – let’s say 25, allowing for some ineligibilities. Less than 30%. Further proof that there is some serious correlation between winning BP and winning the WGA, even though it’s clearly less pronounced than for the PGA, DGA or some of the combos that include SAG ensemble. But it’s there, so it’s definitely quite relevant that Moonlight won. I think the list above also illustrates pretty well why I believe a Manchester by the Sea win here, with its editing snub, would have resembled one of those defeated BP nominees A LOT more than a Moonlight win does, which is unprecedented in this (admittedly narrow) sense. No BP nominee that beat the eventual BP winner at the WGA before was in a position as good as Moonlight is to challenge for the BP win, statistically speaking. This doesn’t mean this is necessarily huge, just because it’s unprecedented. Just that it’s interesting and opens up some scenarios that didn’t seem statistically as plausible before… And it makes La La Land an at least slightly less locked winner than before, in my opinion… (By virtue of showing strong and unexpected support for a realistic alternative for BP voters at the Oscars, unlike most of those others were.) Ferdinand Yes but the general attitude even at the time seemed to be that the screenplay wasn’t the film’s strongest part and wouldn’t be deserving/contending for the Oscar win. But if the Globes had awarded the film before, the attitude about its chances for the Oscar win would have changed and the film could have gotten some more votes from voters who want to vote for the probable Oscar winner in the category on top of the amount that it already got Wayman Wong Thanks for the context. Looking at the bigger picture, ”La La Land” has won at 9 out of the 11 Guild awards, including the PGA and DGA. ”Moonlight” has scored at 2 of them: SAG & WGA. And ”Manchester” went 0 for 4 at SAG, and lost the WGA Original Screenplay, where it was considered the front-runner. Idle Time No one can parse the tea leaves better than you. Sammy Good work. Some serious snubs for all the movies mentioned, which is exciting !! One more thing, BP winners usually won the screenplay Oscar In the last decade. One exception is The Artist and it had won BAFTA for original screenplay, though !!! Claudiu Cristian Dobre The list of movies to have won the WGA, but not the PGA, SAG or DGA, and have no major snubs (again, since 1985), looks like this: The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game The Descendants The Social Network Milk L.A. Confidential The Piano Witness The Killing Fields Of course, none of those won BP. Braveheart won the WGA, but 1. it didn’t beat Apollo 13, which lost in the other category, and 2. it had been snubbed by SAG. So, when did the BP winner lose in the other category as one of these 9 (in 32 years, again – 64 possibilities, since there are two categories) were winning the WGA in their categories? (Which would be similar to the Braveheart case.) Just twice: Titanic lost As Good as It Gets when L.A. Confidential won the WGA in the other category and had no major snubs. A telling example, perhaps, that being the year of one of the other two record holders for number of nominations. And Witness won with no major snubs as Out of Africa lost to Prizzi’s Honor in the other category. Out of Africa, with 11 nominations, lost the DGA, but, otherwise, that year seems to resemble this one quite a bit too. (Anti-stats DGA win for The Color Purple, like the SAG win for Hidden Figures SAG win was this year.) Claudiu Cristian Dobre By major snubs I mean Oscar or guild snubs for picture, directing, editing, screenplay and ensemble. (BAFTA not included, nor any other, non-industry precursors.) MrScreenAddict “One exception is The Artist” Yes, and which recent BP winner has LLL been compared to incessantly over the course of this season? The Artist may have won the BAFTA for screenplay, but it lost the BFCA and HFPA — both of which LLL won. Wayman Wong The what-if timeline is irrelevant now. Historically, screenplays for musicals almost NEVER win awards. ”La La Land” was the 1st one to win (or tie) Screenplay at BFCA, and it was the 1st one to win at the Golden Globes. Last night, it lost at WGA, which was not unexpected because a musical has never won Original Screenplay there. M. Murtaza Murad With easy i meant easy to write. Sparing the last ten minutes i didn’t see anything intense in this movie or new. There were just conventional scenes with regular dialogues. M. Murtaza Murad I haven’t seen the play but it seems everything powerful from that play was left out of this adaptation. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Thanks! I don’t know about all that, but nobody loves doing it as much as I do, probably, that much I can say… 🙂 Idle Time Naturalism is very hard to achieve. Koleś A strong second place might turn into a win by a hair. It’s just a hunch, but I think people who want to vote for Arrival will vote for Arrival. IMHO there is very little chance they will be considering any of the other four. And I also think that people willing to vote for Moonlight might as well vote for Fences and the other way around. I can see people who want to play it safe will voting for Lion or Hidden Figures. Also in recent years they tend to go for the movie based on actual events, so again points for Lion and Hidden Figures. I’m not gonna push my case for Arrival hard, because I know it has very little chance of winning. But you have to admit, despite Moonlight’s undisputed frontrunner status, it’s win is not certain. MrScreenAddict Gold Derby has a running tally of all 13 guild awards, not just limited to the PGA/DGA/SAG/WGA usual suspects. Here are the standings of the BP nominees: • LLL — 12/13 (missing only Visual Effects), 9 wins (losing only WGA and ASC, with CDG happening tomorrow) • Arrival — 9/13, 2 wins (WGA, ACE) • Lion — 8/13, 1 win (ASC) • Manchester — 8/13, 1 win (CSA) • Moonlight — 7/13, 3 wins (SAG, WGA, CSA) • Hidden Figures — 7/13, 3 wins (SAG, ADG, CSA) • Hell Or High Water — 7/13, 1 win (CSA in the Comedy category, bizarrely enough) • Hacksaw Ridge — 6/13, 2 wins (SAG for stunts, MPSE) • Fences — 4/13, 1 win (SAG) http://www.goldderby.com/article/2017/oscars-guild-awards-2017-predictions-news-135790864-2/ M. Murtaza Murad For me the only intense portion of the film was its last fifteen minutes, which were terrific. Nothing else left an impression on me. M. Murtaza Murad Agreed. But I felt Moonlight was made naturalistic by not touching upon the more powerful stuff and avoiding it. Everything was on surface level. It’s just my opinion. Claudiu Cristian Dobre And I thought I could just watch some movies today, all day… 🙂 Nope! The stats got interesting again, unexpectedly, so I’ll be getting behind schedule on the watching side once more… Hopefully not too much! MrScreenAddict Yesterday I watched A Man Called Ove, Fire At Sea, and My Life As A Zucchini. As of those viewings, I have now officially watched every single movie nominated for an Oscar this year: short, foreign, doc, animated, all 62 of them. That’s the first time in my life I’ve ever actually managed to achieve that — and it certainly wasn’t easy! Sammy I am going to watch One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest tonight !! Ferdinand The play was never actually performed at least for an audience anywhere Sammy And Spielberg’s Munich is next !!! JimmyJim You’re absolutely right. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Never seen it? (It’s pretty great.) Sammy I have seen it numerous times of course. But rewatching those masterpieces is also just great. Claudiu Cristian Dobre 🙂 Of course! One of my favorite pastimes is re-watching classics! Claudiu Cristian Dobre I keep it to the off-season, of course, because during Oscar season I have to make sure I see as much as I can from that year, obviously… Claudiu Cristian Dobre 🙂 Heavy! Well done! I’ll probably never be able to go 100% like you did this year. I have no shot at (most of) the shorts pre-Oscar, but it’s OK, I’m used to it. I’ll be seeing everything but Ma vie de courgette and I Am Not Your Negro, which I can’t locate, and maybe 2-3 more if solid watching options (proper conditions/resolution) don’t present themselves. I want to do them justice, not just watch them for the sake of adding up the numbers. I’ll try to catch up in the weeks after the Oscars, though, this year, if possible. ereyethirn Fair enough, as I said I love Arrival too and I would not be upset with it winning at the Oscars… I would just be sad if Barry won nothing and this is really his only chance! I’m not entirely convinced that Moonlight has 100% got it yet… From the fact that it won the tough catagory you know they love Moonlight but you never know, they may love Arrival just as much (it may have won if it was in original too). I mean, I am still predicting moonlight because I always was but I would not be surprised if it’s Arrival. MrScreenAddict OT, but this felt like worth sharing. It’s BTS rehearsal video from Another Day Of Sun. “At this point in the waning days of the awards season, it can be easy to forget that at one time, this year’s frontrunner was seen as a risky and even niche musical from the guy who made Whiplash. A lot of blood, sweat, tears, and music went into making the movie, and this rehearsal footage of the film’s opening number Another Day Of Sun is a great example of the extensive work put into the production.” http://theplaylist.net/enjoy-another-day-sun-glowing-rehearsal-footage-la-la-land-20170220/ Claudiu Cristian Dobre Last things I watched (yesterday) are The Salesman (which had its interesting aspects and was very well acted but, otherwise, not great at all, and I REALLY hope it doesn’t beat Toni Erdmann, as it’s my least favorite foreign film I’ve seen this year so far, and the German entry is by far my favorite) and Green Room (not Oscar-nominated, but I’d heard great things and it’s my genre – and it’s pretty great, indeed, in many ways!) MrScreenAddict Interesting. Toni Erdmann was by far my least favorite foreign film I’ve seen this year, and The Salesman was my second after Land Of Mine. I found Toni to be vastly overrated. To each his own! Hal Jordan “It is all about connecting with Chiron” I know it, and I just wasn’t connected with him Claudiu Cristian Dobre 🙂 Interesting, indeed! I also liked Under sandet, by the way. (Even though nowhere near as much as Toni Erdmann.) It’s in second place for me as well. As for Toni – I’m always a complete sucker for dramedies about family relationships. (Dramas, too, actually. Anything about family that has heart and psychological depth.) Little Miss Sunshine and all that… I can’t resist them! 🙂 And Toni Erdmann felt so real (leaving aside the main character, perhaps, but I’m sure such people exist, not exactly the same, but close enough) and endearing to me… Hal Jordan But it’s still a different movie. Being different doesn’t mean being more special in my opinion. creepingdoubt I’m just joining the chorus. This is maybe the most trenchant analysis of the movie I’ve seen, certainly that I can recall reading on this site. Very thoughtful. And says what so badly needed to be said. Wayman Wong Thanks for posting that. It gives a hint of the hard work, coordination and choreography to pull off just ONE number, let alone all the logistical challenges of a full-length musical. Because ”La La Land” has been considered a front-runner since September, and won so many awards, it’s easy to take it for granted. But it was a huge artistic and commercial risk: Who makes a modern-day musical with original tunes? As for ”Another Day of Sun,” Damien Chazelle has said that he’s wrestled with the opening of his movie. At one point, there was an overture, followed by ”Another Day.” But there were versions of ”La La” where they dropped them altogether, and basically started with Mia and ”Someone in the Crowd.” Thank goodness, they stuck with ”Another Day”; it’s now of the film’s signature moments and sets the stage for the L.A. story ahead. It also bookends the traffic jam that Mia encounters near the end. Dan Feeney You won’t have seen a number of great films though, even so. Under the Shadow and Sieranevada come to mind. MrScreenAddict Well said! I remember when we were all waiting with bated breath for the risky new original musical from the creative genius behind Whiplash. Now it’s here and it’s gorgeous and maybe not perfect but full of passion and love and respect for cinema history… and we spend several months shitting on it. (Not all of us, of course, but still.) It’s that kind of thing, the sport of pitting movies against each other, the attitude of tearing one film down to praise another, that makes me second guess my love of the Oscars sometimes. aroncido I think it’s kind of madness to think a film with PGA, DGA and BAFTA wins will lose BP. Sure, upsets happen, and it’s never absolutely sure, but La La Land has won everything and there is no reason why it wouldn’t win the Oscar. I don’t get what you’re saying with “Moonlight overtakes 3L for getting the lead”. Claudiu Cristian Dobre Of course, it’s not locked. It just seems like, if they have a choice between the two, as both has performed about the same with precursors, they’re very likely to go with Moonlight, for many reasons. Maybe not. I’m hoping I’m wrong about that! 🙂 RossoVeneziano No, he will lose to Chazelle. Wayman Wong David Poland of Movie City News puts it more eloquently than I can: ”How can anyone claim that a musical that opens with scores of people getting out of their cars to dance and sing on the freeway is ‘easy,’ ‘obvious’ or ‘made for Oscar voters’? If audiences didn’t fall in love with that 5 minutes, the whole picture goes down. That is a massive risk. … If ‘La La Land’ was easy, someone else would have made a ‘La La Land.’ No one has. It is a miracle, imperfections and all. … Give it the props it deserves and bring on the rebels, the ripples from pebbles, the painters, and poets, and plays. They count, too.” RossoVeneziano No, every artistic product is NOT political. Art in general is not political. Reaction to art can be political, especially when awards are involved. I was talking about that, the process of giving awards, not the movie itself. If you pick Moonlight over Manchester by the Sea for screenplay you are taking a political stance, you are saying it’s not the craft that matters but the message. This was true for The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar, to take another example. Black or white doesn’t matter. Dan Feeney Are you actually insane? Are you saying it’s actually impossible to just love Moonlight over Wankchester by the Water, by your our own claim that not all art is political, just because I enjoyed the film about 100 times more? Be serious. RossoVeneziano It doesn’t matter what you enjoyed more. I have no say in that, personal taste is not questionable. I enjoyed John Wick more than Silence but I will never argue that the former is a better movie. Film criticism and film awards should be based on artistic merit, not on likeability. Moonlight is a fine movie, I’m not denying that. You can argue it’s a better movie than Manchester overall but WGA wasn’t asked to say what movie was the best. Thay had to judge a specific aspect of the movies, the screeenplay, and they failed by giving the award to the movie they liked the most. Not to the more deserving screenplay. Khazija The entire film was intense from the beginning. Everything about the film left a strong impression on me. Khazija That is not true. Barry Jenkins is being very underrated as a writer here. The film was powerful. Khazija The entire film is filled with scenes showing Chiron’s life struggles and pain. The intensity permeates throughout every scene. Moonlight would not be described as conventional in the slightest and the dialogue was natural for the circumstances. Khazija That is your opinion. Moonlight’s screenplay was a work of art and a great exercise in naturalism. The film itself can’t function without the context of its writing. They did base their selection on artistic merit and implying that it only won due to tokenism is downright offensive. Khazija No, it is not taking a political stance to prefer Moonlight’s screenplay over Manchester by the Sea. It is also very patronizing to insinuate that Barry only won due to his race or the film only won due to the sexuality of its characters. Then it is a cyclical argument because these aspects are central to the identity of the characters in the film as well as the plotline. Just like how Carol or Brokeback Mountain or Pariah would be very different films with a completely different storyline if you altered the sexual orientation or race or setting of the characters. Using the racial/lgbt cards to argue against the film winning awards is not right at all. The detractors keep using this really damaging spin against Moonlight on boards where they deny the artistic merit and story of humanity in the film to claim it is only winning for ‘political correctness’ sake which is a slap in the face to minorities everywhere because that card gets abused when the work of minorities get celebrated or recognized. Wtf Okay? David In your post of the winners, Tarrell McCraney – as the story by – should be listed alongside Barry Jenkins. It’s was Tarrell’s play that became the basis for the script. Do not miss 0 Comments BEST DIRECTORfeatured Best Director – Is it Christopher Nolan’s to Lose?