Now that the reviews for The Shape of Water are in, it looks like Sally Hawkins is indeed a strong contender for Best Actress. She could be joined by several other names coming up in the next few weeks. Veterans like Judi Dench, Meryl Streep, Glenn Close and Annette Bening going up against newer, younger actresses like Margot Robbie, Emma Stone, Jennifer Lawrence and Hawkins. Then there are those who fit in neither category, like Kate Winslet, Nicole Kidman, Salma Hayek, Debra Winger, etc. It gets harder and harder for older women to earn recognition (Streep and Dench and Mirren are the exceptions) when younger women are always coming through the door. And yes, it goes without saying that it’s doubly hard for actresses of color to get any recognition at all, no matter their age.
But there is no question that audiences tune into the Oscars and pay attention to the Oscar race if their beloved big, glamorous stars are in play. I don’t think this year’s Best Actress race will contain more than two vets. That’s my best guess based on looking at the recent history of the category, and I would fully expect Lawrence, Stone and Hawkins to be the three strongest, at least at this stage, when no one knows anything about anything. Dench’s work, at this stage in her career, with so many Best Actress nominations and no wins, also seems to be strong. If Meryl Streep is in the supporting category (which she might be) that leaves open a slot. My own best guess right now would be Hawkins, Stone, Lawrence, Dench and then one last slot that will either go to Bening or Streep. But it’s still too soon to lay down hard predictions. Let’s see what you all think.