It seems almost too good to be true that there would be not only so many female-driven films in the race for Best Picture, but a strong number of films directed by women in the conversation as well — something that just never happens in a male-driven culture, male-driven industry, and in male-driven film criticism. Women have adapted themselves, along with people of color, to sit patiently on the sidelines and find excitement in stories that always put “one special boy” or “one special man” at the center. We’ve seen way too many coming-of-age (or coming-of-old-age) successes and failures of the male protagonist as though millions of tiny stories didn’t occur every day around the globe that involve everyone else.
This year, however, there are women. Lots and lots of women behind the camera, from Dee Rees, a brilliant out gay African American filmmaker whose Mudbound just won the audience award at the Middleburg Film Festival, to Greta Gerwig’s first solo directorial effort that took Telluride by storm, Lady Bird, and even to the more controversial films like Kathryn Bigelow’s unforgettable Detroit and Sofia Coppola’s The Beguiled. The second highest grossing film of the year was Patty Jenkins’ groundbreaking, history-making, future-changing Wonder Woman, and Valerie Faris co-directed Battle of the Sexes, celebrating the life of Billie Jean King, hero and a pioneer of the LGBTQ movement. That’s just behind the camera.
In many ways it is an historic year — but it must be said that it is unfortunate and unacceptable that there are still so few of these roles offered to women of color. It feels like a giant step forward but it also feels like a step back because of that.
In the same year that Frances McDormand as Mildred, turns a mother’s grief from having lost her teenage daughter to a rapist and murderer into an internal combustion engine that wipes up the floor with the residents of Ebbing, Missouri, Margot Robbie transforms herself into one of our imperfect anti-heroes Tonya Harding.
Jessica Chastain, one of the finest actresses working today, sails brilliantly through Aaron Sorkin’s dialogue as the smartest person in the room in Molly’s Game. Emma Stone takes the biggest risk of her career to tackle Billie Jean King, mastering her walk, her movements, her way of dressing as the tennis icon discovers her power as a champion and her vulnerability as a lesbian who must hide who she is in a country not yet ready for the truth.
Saoirse Ronan embodies Greta Gerwig’s palpable teenage angst in Lady Bird as the portrait of a creative woman who doesn’t yet know what she wants to be, but feels a burning ambition to get out of Sacramento and drop herself in the middle of New York City. Brooklynn Prince bursts onto the screen in The Florida Project as a naturally compelling child wrestling with the confines and limitations of poverty.
Sally Hawkins as Elisa finds love with the only living thing that understands her amidst the paranoia and oppression of an America we thought we broke free from, but one that threatens to swallow us all up once again. Hawkins gives us a a reprieve from so much pain, so much frustration, so much heartache. The Shape of Water is a poetic, beautiful, but hard-edged look at unlikely and forbidden love.
Jennifer Lawrence turned herself inside out to play the lead in Darren Aronofsky’s mother!. Judi Dench became Queen Victoria for Victoria and Abdul, while Cynthia Nixon became Emily Dickinson in A Quiet Passion, a woefully underrated performance and film. Kate Winslet plays a housewife completely undone in Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel and in any other year would be a frontrunner.
There are so many more actresses who could be in this year’s race, like Annette Bening as Gloria Grahame in Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool and Salma Hayek in Beatriz at Dinner — but only five will make it.
Since 2009, it’s been infrequent that the Best Actress nominee is in one of the Best Picture contenders:
2016- 1/5
2015- 2/5
2014- 1/5
2015- 3/5
2012- 4/5
2011- 1/5
2010- 3/5
2009- 3/5
Now compare it with Best Actor / Best Picture:
2016- 4/5
2015- 2/5
2014- 4/5
2013- 5/5
2012- 3/5
2011- 3/5
2010- 4/5
2009- 2/5
In general, the men do better in terms of leading Best Picture nominees. However, this year we could see another year like 2012, where at least four out of the five Best Actress nominees are in films with Best Picture nominations, and there’s a slight chance one of those films might win Best Picture. No film has won Best Picture since 2004 with a Best Actress nominee or winner. But this year we could have:
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Meryl Streep, The Post
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
And it’s possible we could have these nominees, even if they don’t make the Best Picture cut, which they might:
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Right now, the strongest contenders and the five I think have the best shot are:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes or Meryl Streep, The Post
That’s how I see it – but let’s see how you all see it. Ready for another poll?