Two films that won the New York Film Critics Circle went on to win Best Picture in the preferential ballot era: The Artist in 2011 and The Hurt Locker in 2009. Only one NYFCC winner in that era did not earn a Best Picture nomination and that was, unfortunately, Todd Haynes’ brilliant Carol.
The last time the NYFCC Best Actress winner went on to win the Oscar was Cate Blanchett with Blue Jasmine. Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady and Helen Mirren in The Queen were two selections that also matched with the Oscars. They are known, along with LA and a few other groups, to push actresses in the race whom they believe warrant attention, and those picks included Isabelle Huppert, Marion Cotillard, Sally Hawkins, etc.
Sean Penn in Milk and Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln are two recent Best Actor picks that went on to win the Oscar, but the NYFCC are more hit and miss in this category. I do not expect them (nor do I expect LA) to go for Gary Oldman. The critics have a bug up their bum about Darkest Hour and have since Telluride. I suspect they will be determined to choose anyone BUT Oldman, who clearly and obviously deserves to win. And so it goes.
The New York Film Critics Circle has been around nearly as long as the National Board of Review and are still the most respected and prominent of the film critics groups – with the National Society of Film Critics and the LA Film Critics Association close behind. New York has traditionally had much influence over how the Oscars are chosen in much the same way the National Board of Review has: they are a prestige hit that sets the tone of the Oscar race early on each year.
There is no reason to expect that the New York Film Critics will not be all over Lady Bird and Call Me By Your Name. They might even split them for Picture and Director. Why do I think this? I don’t know. It’s just something I can sense. If it doesn’t go that way, I will be very surprised. The Post might also do well with them like it did the NBR, maybe winning Actor and Actress. Maybe even Picture. It would shock the hell out of me if The Post swept this season but it might. One never knows. There is always the chance Phantom Thread might surprise here as well in many categories, as it certainly deserves to do.
The next wave of film critics that come after New York and the nominations announced by the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards will give us an idea of where the consensus is heading, but we feel pretty confident that Lady Bird and Call Me By Your Name will be part of that consensus and would have been without New York.
Here are our predictions. Enter our contest below!
Call Me By Your Name – Marshall Flores, Sasha Stone, Ryan Adams, Joey Moser, Jalal Haddad
Dunkirk – Jazz Tangcay, Clarence Moye
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird – Flores, Stone, Moser
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name – Haddad
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk – Tangcay, Moye
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water – Adams
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name – Flores, Adams, Moser, Haddad
Tom Hanks, The Post – Stone
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour – Tangcay, Moye
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird – Flores, Stone
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water – Tangcay, Adams, Haddad
Meryl Streep, The Post – Moye
Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion – Moser
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project – Flores, Tangcay, Adams, Moser
Armie Hammer – Moye
Michael Stuhlbarg Call Me by Your Name/The Shape of Water – Stone, Haddad
Allison Janney, I, Tonya – Flores, Tangcay, Moye
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird – Stone, Moser, Haddad
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound – Adams
Call Me by Your Name – Flores, Tangcay, Adams, Moye
Lady Bird – Stone, Haddad
Get Out – Moser
The Shape of Water – Flores, Moye, Moser
Blade Runner 2049 – Stone, Adams, Tangcay
Mudbound – Haddad