It has all come down to this, my friends. The first really big awards announcement of the year is nearly upon us. It’s a weird Golden Globes year because so much of the Best Picture heat, at least so far, happens to be in the Musical/Comedy category where Get Out and Lady Bird will be competing against each other, potentially along with films like Downsizing and The Big Sick or The Greatest Showman or Beauty and the Beast. There are lots of choices there and it would be odd if one of the musicals this year did not land in the Musical/Comedy section. But which one? I find this the most difficult category to predict. The Globes are traditionally difficult to predict because, generally speaking, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) only has about 90 or so members. It all could go in so many different directions, especially in a year like this. I suspect either Greatest Showman or Beauty and the Beast will get in Musical/Comedy, but I have no idea which one.
The Golden Globes can often give a much needed boost for a film or a contender, like Kate Winslet winning for her supporting work in Steve Jobs when no one was really predicting her. It put her in the race. They can bring out something that the critics mostly ignored and give it a massive publicity boost, as the Globes are the most tracked film awards event next to the Oscars. Everyone goes, everyone campaigns for them.
Do they predict the Oscars? Yes and no. A win there can either be a great thing or a terrible thing. It’s like an audition for a potential win. How it feels when a person or a film wins can determine how that plays out later. It’s always harder for a shy director to seal the deal at awards shows. Actors turned directors always seal the deal because they can more easily play off the win. Then naturally charismatic people, like Alejandro Iñarritù or Danny Boyle (who aren’t even actors) can push the film once they’re at the mic. But it isn’t easy, that’s for sure. I always thought when Jim Cameron beat Kathryn Bigelow in 2009 at the Globes that set in motion The Hurt Locker’s eventual Best Picture win. There is just no way to know, however.
Someone like Jordan Peele or Greta Gerwig or Guillermo del Toro – if they get up to the mic you know they’ll have no problem sealing the deal. They can all handle this with ease. Is there a winner out there like Moonlight that seems so impossible its win would bring down the house? Well, since it’s a wide open race right now I’m not sure there is one — it feels like anything can win. But, as always, we watch for mood to see the reactions of folks after nominations and after wins to suss out how the Globes mentions will play overall.
In terms of Best Picture, you’re mostly looking at the Best Director category, where there are only five possible names. Of those five, you’re very likely to find your Best Picture winner at the Oscars.
Let’s do the categories, shall we?
Best Motion Picture — Drama
The Shape of Water
Call Me By Your Name
Alt: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
It’s a close call there for Darkest Hour vs. The Post. Film Twitter and critics are cool on Darkest Hour but will the Globes be? Is it right up their street? Or will they prefer Three Billboards? The reason I put in Darkest Hour is because ultimately the HFPA might be more inclined to not give two of their slots to one studio. They might want to spread the wealth a little. But I could be wrong.
Best Actress — Drama
Sally Hawkins, Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Meryl Streep, The Post
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
There are other options here and I would not be surprised if someone out of nowhere popped up here, like Nicole Kidman in The Beguiled. I mean, who wouldn’t want Kidman at their awards show? But perhaps Big Little Lies will be named in TV and she’ll be there anyway. Vicky Krieps for Phantom Thread remains a possibility as does Brooklynn Prince for The Florida Project.
Best Actor — Drama
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Tom Hanks, The Post
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Again, this is difficult because Robert Pattinson could be named. Can you imagine the frenzy at the Globes if Pattinson came? Then there is Andrew Garfield in Breathe and Denzel Washington in Roman Israel, Esq. Any of them could replace any of the names above.
Best Motion Picture — Comedy/Musical
The Big Sick
The Great Showman
With Beauty and the Beast, Baby Driver, Battle of the Sexes, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya also in contention, the Comedy/Musical category is PACKED. Really this is a showdown between Get Out and Lady Bird, I figure, in Picture, Director and Screenplay – with Nolan/Dunkirk and Spielberg/The Post also in the mix from Drama.
Best Actress — Comedy/Musical
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
This category feels very unpredictable. For instance, if they loved Beauty and the Beast Emma Watson might be in the running. Michelle Williams if they loved The Greatest Showman. Hard to know.
Best Actor — Comedy/Musical
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Of course, Daniel Kaluuya from Get Out is a strong possibility. I just don’t see how they pass up Matt Damon, but they might, you never know. This category feels like a roll of the dice.
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Alison Janney, I, Tonya
Octavia Spencer, Shape of Water
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
The biggest risk I’m taking is not putting in Holly Hunter for The Big Sick. She probably does get in, I just don’t know which one gets left off.
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
Bob Odenkirk, The Post
I’m taking the biggest risk with Odenkirk, whom no one is predicting. If they really like The Post there is a good chance he gets in. But this is also a crap shoot of a category. Your guess is as good as ours.
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Yes, I know, I’m leaving out Luca Guadagnino again. But which one do you think I should dump to put him in? I do not know because those five films above seem the most likely to win Best Picture. So I’m not really sure how the Globes will shape the narrative in the negative, but any of those above names left off this list will immediately drop in terms of chances to win either Best Picture or Best Director. I’m working backwards from there.
Call Me By Your Name
The Shape of Water
Again, leaving out Three Billboards here but it and The Big Sick could both get in.
The Lego Batman Movie
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
That’s about all I got, Oscar watchers. We’ll see you bright and early Monday morning for the results. Don’t forget to enter our contest and check back on Sunday night for our No Guts, No Glory.