The Producers Guild just told us what we already know, that this is a crazy year with a lot of films in the running for Best Picture. When you see them laid out as 11 choices predicting the winner can be daunting indeed. We just have to stick to the rules we know to be true, whether they are made to be broken or not.
The first rule is that producers are not actors and actors rule the Academy. They have by far the biggest branch and they aren’t no SAG/AFTRA – they are pure actor.
The second rule is that, when it comes to the Producers Guild, they have ten slots to choose Best Picture. Somehow they ended up with a tie and pushed that number out to 11, which is shocking in and of itself. I can’t even imagine the mathematic possibilities to calculate something like that. The Academy has five – just FIVE. When you have to name five best films of the year, or your five favorites, shit gets real – and it gets real FAST. So, that’s why you often see a few films get left off the list making the jump from PGA to Oscar.
The third rule is that it isn’t ever just one guild. You are always looking for crossover appeal, in terms of finding your winner. The actors have to like it. The directors have to like it. The guy down the street who just wrote out your parking ticket has to like it. My yoga teacher, if I did yoga, has to like it. So – having SAG ensemble, DGA and PGA and your guide for that. As we know, shit happens and so it’s possible that can be disrupted but in general follow the guilds.
The fourth rule is that there are no rules. Now go about your business. What I mean about that is that at some point it comes down to figuring out what film people most like vs. what film they want to push whether they like it or not. And for what reason. That can’t be figured out right now. But if one movie – say, Lady Bird, wins the PGA, then the DGA and then SAG? It’s a done deal. Remember, La La Land had no SAG so it could not do a clean sweep. That showed a break in the chain, however slight, to trigger a recount and for a recount you really can’t abide any kind of divisiveness, even a little tiny bit.
What the PGA told me was:
Molly’s Game is more popular than I thought, which makes me think Jessica Chastain will probably be a Best Actress contender, but I do not know which actress right now she will push out.
It also told me that there is some kind of internal or moral push happening for one movie but I don’t know which one it was. Why were there 10? Is it something to do with women and films directed by women? Is it shitstorm avoidance at play? They picked two films by women in their lineup – is that the reason why?
I’m also still not quite ready to blow off The Florida Project, which I think will have passionate support, even still, to possibly make the Oscar cut. Many a film has made it in without a PGA nod. Take a look at the charts below:
Films like Room, Selma, Philomena all got in without a PGA nod. I think we still know our core nominees if there were only five nominees for Best Picture they might be:
The Shape of Water
And then, the very likely adds:
Call Me By Your Name
The Big Sick
That’s 8. There will most likely be 9, a very very long shot gives them 10 but we just the PGA go for 11 so who knows – and if so, it’s two of the following:
The Florida Project
We can wait to see if the DGA clears anything up. Remember, there is a long way to go yet. This weekend will likely push a couple of movies to the top of the pile but will do so without knowing whether any of them will have DGA nominations or not. That could be awkward. Globes predictions coming up.