It is a wide open Golden Globes by most accounts. Some are predicting The Post (like folks at Gold Derby) and some are predicting The Shape of Water. In the musical/comedy category it looks down to Lady Bird vs. Get Out. The Post probably won’t go home empty handed but it also feels a bit muted in terms of how it’s been received – no SAG, no WGA. But the Globes might revive it and put it in a more formidable position heading into the DGAs and onward to Oscar.
According to our stats, we’re really seeing two frontrunners right now – Get Out and Lady Bird. But that’s only if you go by stats. With no one film dominating the way they have in the past, it almost seems like any film can win. We’re still dealing with the preferential ballot, however, and that means if one film doesn’t win on the second round you have to think about what movie voters will push to the top of their ballots either out of sheer good will or because they liked it. That’s always a tough call. We have to wait to see what the DGA does to clarify the picture a bit more. I half wonder if Michael Showalter might show up for The Big Sick or Aaron Sorkin for Molly’s Game – I’m just wondering how that’s going to play.
Meanwhile, here are our Oscar Squad predictions before the big day.