Something strange is happening in the Oscar race right now. I have a theory about it. Sometimes my theories get me into trouble, especially here in Salem — I mean, Hollywood. But I’ll run it past you anyway and it’s simply this: there are two movies that seem to be grappling for how to best represent the industry in the post-Trump atmosphere: Lady Bird and Get Out. But because different factions in town don’t quite know how to choose between them without feeling weird about it, for whatever reason, the usual voting blocks are splintering in unexpected ways. Of course, this would not come into play at the Producers Guild because the preferential ballot is designed to lift popular films above internal skirmishes (as Marshall Flores always tells me, though I don’t exactly know the particulars on that).
Right now, Lady Bird is tracking along the same path as Moonlight did last year, with the exception of two things. 1) it doesn’t have a Mahershala Ali winning everything, and 2) it has no Globe directing nomination. Get Out edged out Lady Bird for screenplay at the Critics Choice, and at the WGA they will be competing against The Shape of Water, but not Three Billboards. I could very well see a scenario where Shape gets director, Get Out gets screenplay and Lady Bird gets picture. It’s not outside the realm of possibility – and Three Billboards will get Actress and Supporting Actor.
Here is the updated chart with SAG ensemble folded in:
Our charts from years prior show that the eventual Best Picture winner does tend to have at least one major win off of this chart: even Moonlight, which shocked everyone, had the Globes picture win, right? It also had a nomination for Globes director. So I don’t know what’s going on exactly with this year, but as I said, I have theories.
Lady Bird and Get Out are splitting the hip vote theory – Kristen Bell and Natalie Portman have now made a major PR push for Lady Bird and Greta Gerwig at the SAG ceremony and the Globes. Portman even did a Q&A with Gerwig covered by Kris Tapley at Variety. But somehow that movie is doing battle with an abundance of movies not only made by women but starring women like Three Billboards, I, Tonya, Shape of Water, Molly’s Game, Wonder Woman, etc. Lady Bird is about a fledgling finding her way. but it does not have any sort of hardcore message at its center that could tap directly into the political climate of the right now. It has “sexual autonomy” and general acceptance of imperfect people, but its main thrust throughout this season has been that it’s the work of Gerwig and it depicts her universe, which is unique. The only other woman I can think of whose universe has been even remotely explored as deeply as her male counterparts’ would be Diablo Cody, and the awards community could really only deal with that for one season. Most female directors get one shot at being celebrated before being put back on the sidelines.
By contrast, Get Out really does have a political message. Coming as the third prominent film by a black director of this decade to head for the Best Picture race, it could be or might be the first film by a black director to win Best Picture with its director also winning. To date, no black director has ever had that happen, even though two films by black directors have won Best Picture. Those who might be inclined to push this stat are split up between pushing this and pushing Lady Bird for different reasons. Get Out is, to my mind, one of the best films of last year even though people always point the finger at me and say “you don’t even understand Get Out, it’s about people like you.” You see, despite the caterwauling, I actually agree with that. I know it’s about people like me, white people who have no culture and so they glom onto the culture of black America or black Twitter. White people aren’t really cool in today’s culture, when you think about it. Black people are. And who doesn’t want to be cool? Get Out plays on this, and it does make you feel discomfort if you’re white and even uneasily self-aware. On the other hand, after the 7th or so viewing, I simply watch it for the brilliance of the filmmaking. Every time I see it the film just gets better. And so what if I’m a white person appreciating it? It’s great filmmaking!
Yes, it’s all about me, you see.
Okay, so why would Three Billboards have not won the PGA if it was popular enough to win the SAG? Well, speaking of Kris Tapley, last night after I tweeted that no movie did what Three Billboards did last night since The Help in 2011. He tweeted to me “but that didn’t win … never mind.” He knows, or I hope he knows, that I would know, of course, that it didn’t win Best Picture considering I lost half of my readership over my championing of Viola Davis that year. The Help didn’t win Best Picture because The Artist was literally winning everything. That was also the Hugo and Martin Scorsese year and Hugo gave The Artist some trouble when the total tally of the awards came down.
For Best Picture purposes, winning the SAG ensemble is not as important as being nominated for the SAG ensemble. In fact, winning the PGA/DGA and SAG ensemble is a big deal but as we saw in 2011, there are factors that matter more. For instance, Three Billboards has already won the audience award in Toronto and the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Drama) — The Help did neither. Three Billboards dominates with the BAFTA nominations, The Help didn’t.
The Help was hit with a crippling controversy, so much so that people won’t even praise it to this day. The argument was what I still believe was a whisper campaign to give the win to Meryl Streep that a woman playing a maid in 2011 meant that no progress had been made in Hollywood. Either way, there is a smaller but still active controversy chasing Three Billboards. Whether it will stick or not is still an open question, but now that its stature has been greatly elevated I suspect it will become a massive punching bag in 3… 2… 1…. You think it was just a few columnists a week or so ago, now just wait for the sanctimony brigade to ring in. They will do it not knowing which film they want to reward instead. Maybe Lady Bird will benefit from that. Probably. Maybe Get Out will. Possibly.
One thing I think I know for sure is that when you watch Three Billboards you see that how you interpret it probably depends on who you are. Clearly, at least right now, it’s a film a lot of people love. It just won a vote of the largest group of voters in the awards race — all 150,000 of them. But the Academy is a different group. The SAG has a record of rewarding films like Straight Outta Compton, Beasts of No Nation, The Help, Hidden Figures, and Mudbound with nominations and wins — they don’t have a problem with diversity. The Oscars do. The Academy faced a boycott over #OscarsSoWhite, so whoever set up the Three Billboards slam (riding, it must be said, in the wake of legitimate concern from some) likely believes they will tip the race in the favor of their favorite. The problem with that is there are three films that could benefit from it not winning: The Shape of Water, Get Out, and Lady Bird.
Right now we don’t know how this thing is going to play out but we do know that there are going to be massive shitstorms ahead. Time to put on that raincoat with a sturdy hood because it’s about to get very very ugly. The Oscar nominations that will be announced tomorrow and will reshape the race yet again. We just don’t know in which direction.