The last punctuation mark for this year’s Oscars will be the BAFTAS, coming at you next Sunday. In a season that has shifted around many times, we have one more pit stop to make before the Oscar voters have their ballots in hand. And that is the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards, or the BAFTAs. Here’s the thing: since we have an somewhat extended seasonm the BAFTAs might have greater influence than they have had in previous years where the winners they chose were not the films that ended up winning over here. But remember, we figured out that extended seasons are every four years, when the Olympics happen. So what happened at BAFTAs four years ago? That was when 12 Years a Slave and Gravity split at the Globes, at the PGAs, at the BAFTAs, and eventually at the Oscars. I’ll never forget running up to Steve Pond at the Spirit Awards having cracked the code where I knew 12 Years would win — because it was an agreed upon split early on, like The Graduate and In the Heat of the Night. It was like that To Serve Man cookbook — I ran up to Steve and I said “Steve! Steve! It’s a cookbook!” No, I did tell him I knew why 12 Years was gonna win. And of course, it did. The Oscars were the next day: there probably wasn’t much chance Gravity would have won Best Picture anyway. ‘Twas the nature of the awards and the preferential ballot that year.
Four years before that was the Hurt Locker year, when Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker won at BAFTA and then repeated at the Oscars. That was the first year of the preferential ballot. This year, 2018, is only the third time we’ve had our extended season to make room for the WinterOlympics. And already strange things are happening. Strange things indeed. One of those things is that neither Get Out nor Lady Bird are even nominated for the BAFTA for Best Picture. The other strange thing is that our stats champ, the movie that should be the frontrunner, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, has been slammed over here with a “controversy,” which is translated as some critics object to the treatment of racism in the film. It won in Toronto, it won the Globe, it won at SAG, and at BAFTA it is nominated for both Best Picture and Best British Film. They like it. They really like it. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to win. It’s just a strange thing is all, the whole thing is strange. Some person — actual person or publicist, who knows — put up some art targeting Three Billboards here in LA in hopes of hurting its Oscar chances. That goes viral and you know the rest of the story.
The BAFTAs may tell us that they still love Three Billboards enough to award it mightily. If so, and it wins big there, I am not sure what happens at the Oscars. But if they go for something else in a big way, like Dunkirk or The Shape of Water — again, we’re at a loss because Get Out does not figure in here. I suppose we could always say we were watching the original screenplay category — ONCE AGAIN — to see who prevails, since all of the same folks nominated there are nominated for the Oscar except The Big Sick, which was replaced by I, Tonya.
You have Winston Churchill two ways, the battle of Dunkirk two ways. Both Dunkirk and Darkest Hour were widely seen and widely beloved by the Brits. Will they like one and not the other? Will they divide their wins or will another movie rise up to beat both? Why I think people who don’t live here love Three Billboards so much is that the rest of the world views us as a kind of circus in a bubble here in America. Three Billboards is a film by someone who thinks that if we could just all learn to listen to each other, to help each other we might not be so utterly divided. Here in America we dig our heels in. We are in a permanent war over things that matter to us. But outsiders probably see it as a bit … absurd.
BAFTAs screenplay category is a hit and a miss for Oscar. Sometimes it hits, sometimes it misses. They did award McDonagh for In Bruges when it was nominated. But again, this category is wide open as any other. The question we’ll all want to know is what movie do these voters put their weight behind? We’ll also be looking for the Mark Rylance of it all: acting wins that might hint to an upset to come.
We’ll be posting our predictions later in the week but wanted to run a poll — which film do you think will get the biggest boost from the BAFTAS in terms of specific wins or overall wins?
If The Shape of Water wins the BAFTAs, what happens to Three Billboards?
If Dunkirk wins, what happens?
If The Shape of Water wins the BAFTAs, what happens to Three Billboards?
If Dunkirk wins, what happens?
I think the shape of water will win directing and picture and a ton of techs the Baftas
I think the shape of water will win directing and picture and a ton of techs the Baftas
The baftas always want to suck up to the potential oscar winners so they try to mirror the front running wins. I don’t expect any surprises. That will come oscar night.
That’s the Critics’ Choice you’re talking about.
Unfortunately, it’s also BAFTA…
Usually they throw a curveball or two, ESPECIALLY in the acting categories. Case in point: Kate Winslet for STEVE JOBS, Carey Mulligan for AN EDUCATION, Colin Firth for A SINGLE MAN, Dev Patel for LION, and many more.
Loved Patel’s win, my favourite of last season
Yeah, exactly. That’s why I think Shape will win.
3 Bills will easily win
I think 3Bs being in the best British film, gives bafta a chance to award both the Oscar front runners, giving Shape a better chance.
I’m still tipping 3Bs for the big prize though
Ugh, I hated A Quiet Passion with a passion (get it?) and cannot understand who so many people are enamored of it. Also thought Nocturama was mostly disappointing. On the other hand, thrilled to see Personal Shopper on the list. Never in a million years would the Academy pay attention to a movie like that, but wish they would. Vicky Kreips belongs among Best Actress nominees, and Phantom Thread was my favorite movie of the year. Do not understand the love for Tiffany Haddish. Her performance was nails on a chalkboard for me.
Cynthia Nixon should be winning best actress for a quiet passion. The best performance of the year
Gosh I hope CMBYN wins Best film, Director & Adapted Screenplay so everybody’s face goes like Daniel Kaluuya’s in the advert to the right here>>>>>> !
CMBYN has no nomination for its director so…
But it would be great, sure, if it won all 4 Oscars it can win. 🙂 (Picture, actor, adapted screenplay and song)
I believe they’re referring to it winning those BAFTAs where Luca is nominated for director!
Yes Guadagnino is nominated for Director at BAFTAS!
CMBYN will win one of those BAFTAs because it’s written by an aging British film legend, and that’s about it.
Ivory is American, his partner and producer Ismael Merchant was Indian, so was his mostly commonly writer, Ruth Prawer Jabla. Although they made several films placed in Great Britain, none of them, or the films itself, were brits
The Village Voice film poll is as good as usually: https://www.villagevoice.com/2018/02/13/the-village-voice-film-poll/
Note the great decisions like decisions like the lack of Gary Oldman, Lynch getting in for director and the love for Personal Shopper, Nocturama and A Quiet Passion
I love this list, very close to my personal favorites. thnx
Please let those Village Voice-critics hand out this years Oscars!
Nice to see a group that has Nolan (and many others) ahead of GDT!…
12 Yrs a slave and Gravity split so it’s not that unusual to expect a split between 3 Bills and Del Toro/Nolan
Unlike the Oscars, BAFTA does not use preferential ballot, which means that there’s a decent chance that both Picture and Director at BAFTA will go to the same movie. The 12 YEARS A SLAVE/GRAVITY case was a rare instance of an agreed-upon split.
What about The King’s Speech/The Social Network split? Brits loved TKS but still awarded Fincher in Directing.
That happened BEFORE the BAFTA voting system changed up around 2012 to match the Academy’s. So post the voting change, the 12 YEARS A SLAVE/GRAVITY split is the only one to date.
Also that split occurred when the individual branches voted on the WINNERS, while all branches voted on the individual categories.
Maybe that race was extremely close? I’m not sure.
Well it’s very likely to happen again this year
Based on what, your intuition? Sorry, but I’m inclined to go with trends and statistics over your gut.
Well we’re going to find out aren’t we .?..who is a wise man and just who is a foolish knave !
Oscar races are like elections you cannot predict them on dry statistics because we humans are not predictable robots
The so called trend of the BAFTAS picking BP and BD in pairs is about to be broken , as it was a mere six years ago
Furthermore, it’s not my gut , it’s most of the betting crowd who are confidently picking 3 Bills for BP and Del Toro/Nolan for BD ..I’d value their predictions over a weak statistic by some anonymous Twerp
One more thing, this has to do with the Oscars. Sasha pointed out that no film has ever won Best Picture where it’s sole credited writer/director also won Original Screenplay. This means that if any one of GET OUT, THREE BILLBOARDS, or even LADY BIRD wins both categories, a big Oscar star will be broken.
If you’re predicting one of those 3 films to win the Original Screenplay Oscar, predict another film to win Picture. For example, if you’re predicting GET OUT for Screenplay, predict either LADY BIRD or THREE BILLBOARDS (or anything else) to take Picture, and so on.
Stat*
This Oscar race now pivots and turns on what wins BSP !
3 Bills must have it ….SHAPE doesn’t need it to win ..and Get Out or Ladybird cannot win BP even if they have it !
Ergo , if anything other than 3 Bills wins BSP , then the Shape of Water has won the best picture Oscar
Like I said, if you’re predicting 3 BILLBOARDS to win Screenplay, predict something else for BP due to the aforementioned stat.
NO , if I predict 3 Billboards for BSP then i’m clearly going to predict 3 Bills for best picture ..it’s the only way it can win
British voters should go nuts for Dunkirk.
I’ll be paying particularly close attention to Cinematography, Production Design, and Editing here, as the winners will likely be the favorites to win the Oscar. Hoping for Deakins, Gassner/Querzola, and Lee Smith, respectively.
Would love to see Dunkirk win Best Film, but I don’t think it’s gonna happen. I would laugh my ass off if Darkest Hour won, but I wouldn’t be that surprised.
Editing is a category to keep a close eye on, especially to see if BAFTA agrees with the ACE or not. In instances of disagreements, the BAFTA winner won the Oscar in recent years (case in point: HACKSAW RIDGE and WHIPLASH).
The baftas always want to suck up to the potential oscar winners so they try to mirror the front running wins. I don’t expect any surprises. That will come oscar night.
That’s the Critics’ Choice you’re talking about.
Unfortunately, it’s also BAFTA…
Usually they throw a curveball or two, ESPECIALLY in the acting categories. Case in point: Kate Winslet for STEVE JOBS, Carey Mulligan for AN EDUCATION, Colin Firth for A SINGLE MAN, Dev Patel for LION, and many more.
Loved Patel’s win, my favourite of last season
Yeah, exactly. That’s why I think Shape will win.
3 Bills will easily win
I think 3Bs being in the best British film, gives bafta a chance to award both the Oscar front runners, giving Shape a better chance.
I’m still tipping 3Bs for the big prize though
Ugh, I hated A Quiet Passion with a passion (get it?) and cannot understand who so many people are enamored of it. Also thought Nocturama was mostly disappointing. On the other hand, thrilled to see Personal Shopper on the list. Never in a million years would the Academy pay attention to a movie like that, but wish they would. Vicky Kreips belongs among Best Actress nominees, and Phantom Thread was my favorite movie of the year. Do not understand the love for Tiffany Haddish. Her performance was nails on a chalkboard for me.
Cynthia Nixon should be winning best actress for a quiet passion. The best performance of the year
Gosh I hope CMBYN wins Best film, Director & Adapted Screenplay so everybody’s face goes like Daniel Kaluuya’s in the advert to the right here>>>>>> !
CMBYN has no nomination for its director so…
But it would be great, sure, if it won all 4 Oscars it can win. 🙂 (Picture, actor, adapted screenplay and song)
I believe they’re referring to it winning those BAFTAs where Luca is nominated for director!
Yes Guadagnino is nominated for Director at BAFTAS!
CMBYN will win one of those BAFTAs because it’s written by an aging British film legend, and that’s about it.
Ivory is American, his partner and producer Ismael Merchant was Indian, so was his mostly commonly writer, Ruth Prawer Jabla. Although they made several films placed in Great Britain, none of them, or the films itself, were brits
Dunkirk wins Best Film.
Darkest Hour wins Best British Film.
Del Toro takes Director.
Three Billboards takes Screenplay.
If Dunkirk wins Best Picture, it will sure as hell win Directing as well. They rarely split, and there is no reason not to vote Nolan if you already vote Dunkirk.
I could see del Toro still winning if Dunkirk takes picture – people seem to love to vote against Nolan, unfortunately…
If you listened to the latest podcast, they are pretty much dismissing the BAFTA as a serious precursor. Even if 3B wins both Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay, they’ll dismiss it because “the British don’t seem to understand American films like Lady Bird and Get Out.”
So they’ll hedge and say that it’s still not over and that the WGA win means more. We’ll see. At the end of the day, it’s still going to be a tight race. However, I am encouraged by the anecdotal evidence that I’ve heard so far regarding the Three Billboards support. To be honest, it reminds me exactly like what happened with Trump. Oscar voters secretly love the film but they are too afraid of openly declaring for it because of fear of being namecalled, etc. Hence, the campaign that’s going on right now. We’ll see. I hope that they’ll stand their ground and not be cohersed by the SJW’s dirty tactics.
The whole race now comes down to BSP
.3 Bills must have it to win
SHAPE can win without it
Get Out and Ladybird cannot win BP even with it
Therefore , if Get Out wins BSP then shape has won BP by default
BSP is the hinge of fate that this race pivots and turns upon !
It sorta seems this way.
The Village Voice film poll is as good as usually: https://www.villagevoice.com/2018/02/13/the-village-voice-film-poll/
Note the great decisions like decisions like the lack of Gary Oldman, Lynch getting in for director and the love for Personal Shopper, Nocturama and A Quiet Passion
I love this list, very close to my personal favorites. thnx
Please let those Village Voice-critics hand out this years Oscars!
Nice to see a group that has Nolan (and many others) ahead of GDT!…
Brits love 3 Billboards and prefer it over SHAPE it was obvious in the noms when they wedged two actors from 3 Bills into the BSA category and booted Jenkins from SHAPE
The exact same happened at SAG and was indicative of the love that actors have for the movie
As I wrote earlier , SHAPE is not even released here in the UK until Friday ..there is little buzz or momentum for it as its campaign is flat …the betting odds have remained stable for 3 Bills as the favourite at 4-6 even when McDonagh was snubbed in the Oscar noms …IMO its a very safe bet !
Dunkirk just doesn’t have the strength to win BP , but could sneak a BD win due to hometown support for Nolan …but I wouldn’t bet on it !
But McDonagh is not winning BD and, as Marshal pointed out below, BAFTA rarely rarely splits the two top prizes. That’s a pretty good indication for Shape, with Dunkirk as a possible spoiler if they get super British-y.
Marshall is like a homicide detective who cannot solve a murder without forensics , but the best detectives always have an intuitive hunch
Marshall is not here in the UK like I am ..the zeitgeist is for 3 Bills
Statistics are only a rough guide ; they can be broken and ignored
The best indicator are the bookies odds which can fluctuate like an opinion poll in an election ..the bettors have a lot of confidence in 3 Bills and very little in Dunkirk or SHAPE…FACT !
12 Yrs a slave and Gravity split so it’s not that unusual to expect a split between 3 Bills and Del Toro/Nolan
Unlike the Oscars, BAFTA does not use preferential ballot, which means that there’s a decent chance that both Picture and Director at BAFTA will go to the same movie. The 12 YEARS A SLAVE/GRAVITY case was a rare instance of an agreed-upon split.
Well it’s very likely to happen again this year
Based on what, your intuition? Sorry, but I’m inclined to go with trends and statistics over your gut.
Well we’re going to find out aren’t we .?..who is a wise man and just who is a foolish knave !
Oscar races are like elections you cannot predict them on dry statistics because we humans are not predictable robots
The so called trend of the BAFTAS picking BP and BD in pairs is about to be broken , as it was a mere six years ago
Furthermore, it’s not my gut , it’s most of the betting crowd who are confidently picking 3 Bills for BP and Del Toro/Nolan for BD ..I’d value their predictions over a weak statistic by some anonymous Twerp
One more thing, this has to do with the Oscars. Sasha pointed out that no film has ever won Best Picture where it’s sole credited writer/director also won Original Screenplay. This means that if any one of GET OUT, THREE BILLBOARDS, or even LADY BIRD wins both categories, a big Oscar star will be broken.
If you’re predicting one of those 3 films to win the Original Screenplay Oscar, predict another film to win Picture. For example, if you’re predicting GET OUT for Screenplay, predict either LADY BIRD or THREE BILLBOARDS (or anything else) to take Picture, and so on.
Stat*
This Oscar race now pivots and turns on what wins BSP !
3 Bills must have it ….SHAPE doesn’t need it to win ..and Get Out or Ladybird cannot win BP even if they have it !
Ergo , if anything other than 3 Bills wins BSP , then the Shape of Water has won the best picture Oscar
Like I said, if you’re predicting 3 BILLBOARDS to win Screenplay, predict something else for BP due to the aforementioned stat.
I’ll be paying particularly close attention to Cinematography, Production Design, and Editing here, as the winners will likely be the favorites to win the Oscar. Hoping for Deakins, Gassner/Querzola, and Lee Smith, respectively.
Would love to see Dunkirk win Best Film, but I don’t think it’s gonna happen. I would laugh my ass off if Darkest Hour won, but I wouldn’t be that surprised.
Editing is a category to keep a close eye on, especially to see if BAFTA agrees with the ACE or not. In instances of disagreements, the BAFTA winner won the Oscar in recent years (case in point: HACKSAW RIDGE and WHIPLASH).
Predictions for the major categories:
Best Film: Three Billboards (TSOW could win, which would make sense since Best Film + Picture haven’t matched for the last three years, but if 3B does take Film + Original Screenplay, then it just makes it an even stronger frontrunner than if it just won OS)
Best British Film: Darkest Hour (3B and DH were nominated for both, so it seems most logical to give this to DH and Film to 3B)
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro
Best Actor: Gary Oldman
Best Actress: Frances McDormand
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (though we got a big curveball last year with Dev Patel, so for all we know, Hugh Grant will win this…)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (though I wouldn’t be surprised if Manville wins it, as there’s been one acting shakeup for the last two years)
Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name
That’s about right ; I’ve thought about Grant and Manville winning , but it’s unlikely when they have two actors from 3 Bills wedged in there ….Phantom Thread is too tedious for Manville to have an upset IMO
The most likely upset is Nolan winning BD , but I wouldn’t bet real money on it
Remember the stat Sasha pointed out regarding Original Screenplay: NO FILM in Oscars history has ever won Best Picture where the LONE CREDITED writer/director also won Original Screenplay. This means that if GET OUT, LADY BIRD, or even THREE BILLBOARDS wins both, Oscar history will be made. The more reasonable prediction is that one of those 3 movies wins Original Screenplay, while another one wins Best Picture.
My guess is 3B wins picture but Get Out wins screenplay, despite losing BAFTA screenplay!
Yup. Look no further than 2011. THE ARTIST (which had a lone credited writer/director (Michel Hazanavicius)) won Oscars Best Picture while MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (another lone credited writer/director (Woody Allen)) won the Original Screenplay Oscar. At the BAFTA’s, however, THE ARTIST won both Screenplay and Picture.
Not only that: I’ve felt for a long time like people were starting to overemphasize this picture-screenplay connection, which has only been a thing for a decade or so, but was much weaker before, and that this year would likely prove them wrong. (Though, personally, I hope that’s not the case, because if picture and screenplay do match again, then it’s virtually assured that Shape isn’t winning the former – because it’s 99% sure not to win the latter -, which I definitely don’t want it to…)
Given they rarely split, and Del Toro seems to be the favourite for BD, wouldn’t 3B winning British Film & Shape Best Film make sense?
I can’t see 3B winning both, but given what I’ve read about Shape release date & campaign (or lack there of) I’m going with Darkest Hour for British & 3B best film.
Does that mean McDonagh wins BD? Maybe
Still one of the more shocking BAFTA decisions was David Fincher winning over Tom Hooper in 2011. (Deservedly)
If there is a split, I PRAY that it’s Luca.
I always say… Even the Brits picked Fincher to win!
It is worth noting that the voting system BAFTA’s used at the time was very different. Back then, the entire BAFTA membership voted on the nominees (using a 2-stage process that released a longlist prior to the nominations), and then each individual branch voted on the winners. The voting system was changed in 2012 to closely resemble the Academy’s (the individual branch voting for the nominees, the entire membership voting for the winners).
If you listened to the latest podcast, they are pretty much dismissing the BAFTA as a serious precursor. Even if 3B wins both Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay, they’ll dismiss it because “the British don’t seem to understand American films like Lady Bird and Get Out.”
So they’ll hedge and say that it’s still not over and that the WGA win means more. We’ll see. At the end of the day, it’s still going to be a tight race. However, I am encouraged by the anecdotal evidence that I’ve heard so far regarding the Three Billboards support. To be honest, it reminds me exactly like what happened with Trump. Oscar voters secretly love the film but they are too afraid of openly declaring for it because of fear of being namecalled, etc. Hence, the campaign that’s going on right now. We’ll see. I hope that they’ll stand their ground and not be cohersed by the SJW’s dirty tactics.
Brits love 3 Billboards and prefer it over SHAPE it was obvious in the noms when they wedged two actors from 3 Bills into the BSA category and booted Jenkins from SHAPE
The exact same happened at SAG and was indicative of the love that actors have for the movie
As I wrote earlier , SHAPE is not even released here in the UK until Friday ..there is little buzz or momentum for it as its campaign is flat …the betting odds have remained stable for 3 Bills as the favourite at 4-6 even when McDonagh was snubbed in the Oscar noms …IMO its a very safe bet !
Dunkirk just doesn’t have the strength to win BP , but could sneak a BD win due to hometown support for Nolan …but I wouldn’t bet on it !
Sally Hawkins will win this and the Oscar, I would bet the house on it (I’m renting so I’m fine either way).
I would be so so happy if that happens. I love Sally Hawkins
The only upset at BAFTA that I see is the Darkest Hour for Best British Film
The voters have been habitually conditioned to expect two separate BP winners instead of one twice ..I expect 3 Bills to easily win BP , BA , BSA and likely BSP , and so they can afford to spread the wealth and vote for a ”very british film ” in the BBF category .
The problem for 3 Bills is that it just doesn’t resonate as British while the Darkest Hour surely does ..both have the same amount of noms , while Oldman is clearly winning best actor ; and furthermore , Dunkirk is not entered for tactical reasons and so the DH can get the total patriotic vote ,,,……”.they can have their cake and eat it too !”
by your reasoning which i agree – 3b doesn’t resonate as a British film (not that that has stopped BAFTA rewarding a seemingly non British type film as Best British Film in the past decade); then why is it a shoo in for Best Picture at BAFTA. I too can see Darkest Hour getting British Film and one of Shape of Water or Dunkirk Best Film.
Because actors love 3 Bills ; because SHAPE hasn’t even opened in the UK and has no buzz or momentum …because its remained a strong favourite with the bookies due to the weight of money bet on it , even when Mcdonaugh was snubbed for BD at Oscar …..because Dunkirk hasn’t the strength to win
OK, spent half the day on stats and precedents again… And I came up with the following – very close to final – percentages for the Best Picture win. The good news would be that I found more than enough precedents for a Three Billboards win, compared to The Shape of Water’s (making comparable concessions to dissimilarity in both cases, because otherwise one would be unable to find more than 2-3 precedents in total, which wouldn’t be very helpful.) Whether the precedents for Shape slightly outnumber the precedents for Billboards, or vice-versa, is probably quite a bit up to one’s interpretation/tastes. I’ve never given such close percentages between the #1 favorite and the #2 favorite before in my life and, since I’m sticking with the prediction system I described recently, in its slightly updated form, and am thus predicting Three Billboards to win, I may have had a slight bias in that direction. However, it should be noted that a majority of Shape’s precedents come from the pre-PGA era, where I had to make some pretty shady assumptions (based mostly on stats, but very mediocre ones – there’s a pretty large file on my laptop now, containing those, that I’m not yet sure what to do with) about what would have won the PGA and SAG Ensemble, based on what kinds of movies won those since 1990/1996. In the PGA era, Three Billboards wins the precedents war something like 6 to 3, at least. This, without any bias, I dare say. There’s only one preferential era precedent I used – last year’s race -, one which, of course, also favors Three Billboards.
So, long story short, here they are:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 42% (I’ve STILL not decided how much BAFTA will factor into the final percentages I give… There might still be some things to study first.)
The Shape of Water 39% (Based on my VERY rough estimate of a 13:12 ratio of close enough precedents between the two, between 1949 and 2017.)
Get Out 9% (Perhaps the most accurate/confident percentage on the whole list – which, however, isn’t saying much…)
Lady Bird 5% (Clearly lower than this, looking at absolute stats, but also maybe higher when looking only at non-standard races, like this year’s.)
Dunkirk 4% (Will drop to a pretty confident 3%, or maybe even 2%, once it loses BAFTA BP, which I’m assuming it will.)
Everything else 1% total. (Because they just don’t resemble even a single BP winner in the last 69 years, in either strength or trajectory, enough to call it
a precedent for their winning, making a win by any of those four a purely random and illogical scenario I don’t think has more than a 1% chance of coming to fruition, even in a messy year such as this.)
I might re-post.
I was just looking at the Indie Spirit Awards. They have correctly predicted the Best Picture Winner for the past 4 years which gives me a little pause. Get Out may definitely take it. Nonetheless, I am holding onto Three Billboards. It will need that BAFTA boost in order to be fresh in the minds of Oscar voters.
Indie Spirits also did not nominate ”The Shape of Water” OR ”Three Billboards” for Best Feature. However, the Best Picture nominees that are ALSO Best Feature nominees are ”Call Me by Your Name” (with 6 Indie nominations), ”Get Out” (with 5) and ”Lady Bird” (with 4). … For the past 8 years, the winner of the Best Feature at the Indies also has been a Best Picture winner or nominee.
What to do if CMBYN wins Best Feature at the Indies? That Indies winner stat is interesting. It won Sasha’s Facebook Preferential Poll by quite a bit. It’s destined to win at least one other Oscar on Oscar night. I don’t really think it has a shot, but this is a screwy year.
Get out will definitely take it, although that’s not a industry stat, it is something worth thinking about..
Agreed, a BAFTA win for either film or screenplay or both would be most useful…
“I found more than enough precedents for a Three Billboards win”
But there are literally only four precedents in all of Oscar history for a movie winning without a Best Director nomination. So how could there possibly be “more than enough” precedents to make it the frontrunner over a film that has all the necessary Oscar nods?
The SAG Ensemble stat rarely crumbles. It’s more significant that Best Director.
Not sure how you’re backing up the claim that SAG Ensemble is more significant than Best Director.
SAG Ensemble stat has been correct 20 out of 21 times = 95.2%
Best Director stat has been correct 85 out of 89 times = 95.5%
Statistically, they are almost exactly equal. The BD stat is actually a *little bit* stronger, and it also has by far the larger sample size. Ergo, I’m inclined to trust it more.
Because old results matter less than newer results, and post-preferential results matter more than pre-preferential.
You do realize how microscopic an advantage that is, right? To trust one over the other based on that is a bit more of a guess than anything, if you ask me… (Again, I could be wrong.)
I do! That’s why I said they’re almost exactly the same (unlike the other commented, who claimed SAG was stronger). I’m just saying that, if we’re talking statistics, I would also trust a stat with a larger sample size over a stat with a smaller one. Not that either or both of them can’t ever be wrong.
Sample-wise, of course, the directing stat is more trustworthy. But the difference isn’t a sample of 10 vs. a sample of 1000. 🙂 Both are comparatively small, but also comparatively large compared to a lot of other Oscar stats (like the one about the BP winner also winning screenplay, for example) which can trump stats with bigger samples and similar percentages sometimes. But, more importantly, logically speaking, TSOW’s SAG snub makes less sense as anything other than a clear sign of overall weakness – it just has nearly all of the “ingredients” a SAG-nominated movie needs. Movies with 3 acting nods at the Oscars, as well as a screenplay nod, just don’t miss there very often. Only three, by my count. Sample isn’t huge, but it’s big enough. It’s true it’s not winning screenplay or a supporting award at the Oscars (those that do miss SAG ensemble even more seldom,) but that’s not a necessity, it’s just good to have it. There really is no logical reason for it to miss for SAG other than that they didn’t love the movie.
Whereas McDonagh’s directing achievement, like Beresford’s before him, for Driving Miss Daisy, clearly isn’t impressive enough, in spite of the (presumed) overall love for the movie, to warrant making the top 5 for all major lists (DGA, Oscar, BAFTA, BFCA, HFPA.) Which I’d been saying for a long time, before he was snubbed by AMPAS. Yet he still made 4/5, which is quite impressive. Unlike Beresford. But the same as Affleck. And Affleck was strong enough to win everywhere except the place he was snubbed. McDonagh made as many lists without even being in the conversation for the win – that to me looks like strength, more than the Oscar snub looks like weakness.
Also, like I’ve said before, a vote from 2000 actors, regardless of how many of them are film actors, is, to me, more relevant to what the votes of 6000+ people, a lot of which are actors, will look like, than that of two or three hundred (I don’t remember the exact number) directors that have made countless unexpected snubs like that in the past, even if they’re all Academy members. (SAG rarely, if ever, snubs a top BP contender with a strong ensemble that they’ve actually seen – and Shape was seen, unlike The Revenant, for example.) 300 directors are less representative of the overall composition of the Academy than 2000 actors. Even 300 random people are less representative of that than 2000 random people. 🙂 Also, the fact that neither Hawkins, nor Jenkins, won at SAG, confirms that the nominating committee’s vote wasn’t necessarily a fluke – if the rest of the SAG voters felt that strongly about Shape, they probably would’ve given one of those the upset win. Hawkins was an easy one to give it to, as McDormand already had two SAG wins before this one. Sure, it would have been a surprise, but not a huge one. Hawkins won a lot of critics prizes this year – a lot of them important ones.
So, yeah, I, for one, think the logical considerations pretty clearly outweigh the smaller sample and the microscopic disadvantage in percentages for the SAG stat, compared to the directing stat. It’s not super-clear, but that’s what it looks like to me. Also, on that: the directing stat has had two exceptions in the PGA era. The SAG stat has had one – in the six years with no ensemble award, 1990-1995, the BP winners were basically locked to get in for SAG, looking at the stats I’ve been looking at. So, that’s two exceptions in the last 28 years, compared to just the one for the SAG stat. There might have been some exceptions to the SAG stat in the 61 years before that, had the award existed – probably even enough to just get the number over the directing stat’s four (Grand Hotel, for example, I doubt could have been one of them – being the essential ensemble movie -, but I’ve seen at least one or two years in the 1948-1990 interval where the BP winner might have been snubbed for SAG – not that it was certain to be, mind you) -, but, even then, it’s hard to ignore the situation over the last 30 years or so, especially since now we’re working under the preferential ballot, and we’ve already had an exception to the directing stat under that system, not to mention the growth in the number of splits. The trend clearly seems in favor of the SAG stat, not the directing stat. This year could confirm or negate that, of course.
Yes, and there’s only one precedent for a movie winning without the SAG nod. Percentage-wise, again, it’s the same – 5%. If you look at it that way, you don’t have enough precedents for either, so that’s not very useful. That’s why I decided to equate the two, since their percentages are similar. I looked at races similar enough in all other ways except those two snubs. In addition to the Braveheart, Driving Miss Daisy and Argo years, of course. (I only looked at the WGA era.) Movies in a stronger position than Shape, or a similar one, have lost before (the likes of La La Land – didn’t lose the Globe, won a SAG award, was winning actress, Moonlight lost SAG, etc.), Brokeback Mountain, Saving Private Ryan, Reds, Born on the Fourth of July (unlikely to get snubbed by SAG, had it existed), Giant, A Place in the Sun, Johnny Belinda… and movies in a weaker position than Three Billboards have won before. (Crash, Driving Miss Daisy, Chariots of Fire, Around the World in 80 Days, An American in Paris, Hamlet…) If you get hung up on the BD snub alone (or the SAG snub alone), you’ll ignore other clues and precedents, which I don’t think is the way to go. But I could be wrong, of course, in this particular case. 🙂 I’ve admitted as much. The directing snub could just be unbeatable unless very specific conditions arise, like some people seem to think, and in this case it could be better to ignore everything else. I think most probably not, but it’s possible. We’ll know soon enough!
There is no film with a 50% or more chance ??
La La Land had 65% I think post BAFTA vs. Moonlight’s 26% !!
That’s not that unusual for me – I think I had The Big Short under 50%, and maybe also 12 Years a Slave. Not sure. Anyway, yeah, i’d have actually felt uneasy about giving anything 50% or more this year, that’s for sure! Thankfully, the research backed up the idea that none deserved that much.
I too ended up with 45% and possibly below after BAFTA !!
I know, I saw. 🙂
Question that just occurred to me. I know that Get Out has way more stats going against it than TSOW and 3B, which mostly have one big one each. But those big ones are SO big, and each of Get Out’s is smaller by comparison, so I was wondering if the cumulative strength of Get Out’s snubs adds up to less or more than the strength of TSOW’s and 3B’s? (Like, around 95%.) Would that be easy for you to figure out, or super time consuming?
Well, it’s already been figured out. 🙂 Just one of Get Out’s stats obstacles is much more prohibitive than both of those: no movie has won BP despite not being at least tied for 7th on the list of most nominated movies that year. (Which Get Out is below.) In the full 89 years of Oscars. Even Grand Hotel, with its sole nomination, was tied for 7th. Only six movies had two or more nominations that year – none more than four. Even if you add an extra nod for Get Out (assuming one of the misses, maybe editing, was a fluke), you still get only 2 movies that won without being at least tied for 5th, which is also Lady Bird’s situation. (And also the biggest industry stat The Big Short failed to two years ago – one I didn’t pay sufficient attention to at the time, perhaps.)
I mentioned these nomination ranking stats in one of my earlier big posts. (In the longest one, I believe, so I guess you didn’t read any/all of it.) Of course, maybe you don’t find this stat convincing in its logic – I do. Even then, the sum of all of the other, more well-known stats blocking Get Out’s path, but not that of the two favorites, surely more than compensates for the importance of the BD/SAG stats! Especially with no movie on zero major snubs. Which isn’t to say Get Out can’t win (see the 9% above, which will go up if it wins screenplay at BAFTA), but it’s definitely not the favorite under any interpretation that doesn’t ignore certain stats – unless it wins BAFTA screenplay, in which case it could be argued that, had Three Billboards been eligible for the WGA, it would have lost and thus been eliminated (like Shape) by the WGA loss plus one other industry snub rule, and Get Out would have been the only one left standing, the only one that didn’t have to break that rule or the equally bad two snub rule to win Best Picture. But even then it wouldn’t be clear that that’s the case, it would still be more speculation than anything else, because BAFTA and the WGA have diverged in weird ways sufficient times in the past (MBTS/Moonlight, SLP/Argo, American Hustle/Her, etc.) to make it quite unclear that it actually would’ve beaten 3B at the WGA too.
Thinking skipping this show altogether this year. Not gonna be pretty.
Why? Will you be so pissed off if 3B wins? It’s not like there is a Brokeback Mountain masterpiece that will be unjustly not rewarded this year. If there is, I’d love to know what that is.
Yeah it’s awful. I’ll just catch up with Shawn Mendes interviews on YouTube instead.
The real crucial element with BAFTA this year is that the Oscar voting only begins about 3 days after BAFTA instead of the usual before when many folks who vote early are not influenced by BAFTA ….when 3 Bills wins it will be like a shot of adrenalin in the arm to help it over the finish line , but it still could get tripped up by the preferencial ballot
yep and the question is which film can prevail on the preferential ballot?
It all hinges on BSP ..3 Bills must have it to win , while SHAPE can win without it …ergo , if get Out or Ladybird win BSP then SHAPE has surely won best picture
Nothwithstanding any influence albeit perception rather than a pointer to eventual winner – Dunkirk needs to stay afloat by winning big time at BAFTA. Even though it’s a plurality vote there; perception may aid voters with preferencing it higher at AMPAS. If it sinks; and 3B does well it will help it over the pond for Oscar but I’m really not sure who will benefit. I just don’t see The Shape of Water winning BP at the Oscars; not because of the SAG omission but the sci-fi/fantasy element. Get Out and Lady Bird i would say need the screenplay prize to have a hope to win the pref vote. It’s going top be interesting. Maybe the grandeur and scope of Dunkirk will be a safer/stronger bet for voters in a year with so many different styles and themes of films. Just like we scratched our heads that The King’s Speech could win just a couple of years after less obvious winners such as No Country for Old Men or The Hurt Locker did. Moonlight may be progressive; will they vote progressive in 2018? And which way?
Predictions for the major categories:
Best Film: Three Billboards (TSOW could win, which would make sense since Best Film + Picture haven’t matched for the last three years, but if 3B does take Film + Original Screenplay, then it just makes it an even stronger frontrunner than if it just won OS)
Best British Film: Darkest Hour (3B and DH were nominated for both, so it seems most logical to give this to DH and Film to 3B)
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro
Best Actor: Gary Oldman
Best Actress: Frances McDormand
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (though we got a big curveball last year with Dev Patel, so for all we know, Hugh Grant will win this…)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (though I wouldn’t be surprised if Manville wins it, as there’s been one acting shakeup for the last two years)
Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name
That’s about right ; I’ve thought about Grant and Manville winning , but it’s unlikely when they have two actors from 3 Bills wedged in there ….Phantom Thread is too tedious for Manville to have an upset IMO
The most likely upset is Nolan winning BD , but I wouldn’t bet real money on it
Remember the stat Sasha pointed out regarding Original Screenplay: NO FILM in Oscars history has ever won Best Picture where the LONE CREDITED writer/director also won Original Screenplay. This means that if GET OUT, LADY BIRD, or even THREE BILLBOARDS wins both, Oscar history will be made. The more reasonable prediction is that one of those 3 movies wins Original Screenplay, while another one wins Best Picture.
My guess is 3B wins picture but Get Out wins screenplay, despite losing BAFTA screenplay!
Yup. Look no further than 2011. THE ARTIST (which had a lone credited writer/director (Michel Hazanavicius)) won Oscars Best Picture while MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (another lone credited writer/director (Woody Allen)) won the Original Screenplay Oscar. At the BAFTA’s, however, THE ARTIST won both Screenplay and Picture.
Not only that: I’ve felt for a long time like people were starting to overemphasize this picture-screenplay connection, which has only been a thing for a decade or so, but was much weaker before, and that this year would likely prove them wrong. (Though, personally, I hope that’s not the case, because if picture and screenplay do match again, then it’s virtually assured that Shape isn’t winning the former – because it’s 99% sure not to win the latter -, which I definitely don’t want it to…)
Dunkirk for the win. Christopher Nolan is the 21st Century answer to David Lean.
Ehh…I’d wait until Nolan gives us his Brief Encounter to don him with that honor.
Hopefully he’ll pass on Ryan’s Daughter!
I nev understand the double dipping o films in best film n best british film. Its so unfair to those non british films!
Bafta shld’ve a rule tt stipulates tt if a film is nom under the British category, it will not be nom under best film n vice-versa. Films who qualify for both shld simply make up their minds on which to forgo!
At least Dunkirk has the integrity NOT to submit for consideration under British film when it cld hav done so n it cld’ve easily won in that category!
They didn’t enter Dunkirk for tactical reasons because they figured it would weaken it’s chances in the BP category , and they are correct
I tink they din do so bcos they r not as shamelessly hungry for noms like 3BB or Darkest Hour. Lol
Anyway, the producers actually said althot its v British story, it is at heart a universal story tt cld happen anywhr. Thus, they decision to skip the British category .
I agree 1000% with everything in your post! I hate the double dipping, too.
I hope London pride helps ”Dunkirk” and Nolan win their BAFTAs. (If ”Dunkirk” wins Best Film, Nolan’s a co-producer. But I’m rooting for him to take Director, too!)
Given they rarely split, and Del Toro seems to be the favourite for BD, wouldn’t 3B winning British Film & Shape Best Film make sense?
I can’t see 3B winning both, but given what I’ve read about Shape release date & campaign (or lack there of) I’m going with Darkest Hour for British & 3B best film.
Does that mean McDonagh wins BD? Maybe
Still one of the more shocking BAFTA decisions was David Fincher winning over Tom Hooper in 2011. (Deservedly)
If there is a split, I PRAY that it’s Luca.
I always say… Even the Brits picked Fincher to win!
It is worth noting that the voting system BAFTA’s used at the time was very different. Back then, the entire BAFTA membership voted on the nominees (using a 2-stage process that released a longlist prior to the nominations), and then each individual branch voted on the winners. The voting system was changed in 2012 to closely resemble the Academy’s (the individual branch voting for the nominees, the entire membership voting for the winners).
BAFTA
Picture: Shape Of Water
British Film: Three Billboards
Director: del toro
Actor: Oldman
Actress: Hawkins
Supp Actor: Rockwell
Supp Actress: Manville
Original Screenplay: Three Billboards
Adapted Screenplay: CMBYN
I agreed w yo predictions but tink tt Bafta might wanna reward Dunkirk one o the big prizes.
Since Del Toro’s win is set, maybe Dunkirk will take Best Pic
dunkirk is not gonna win
I think these might be right. Damn I would love if Hawkins and Manville won and both got an Oscar boost!
You’re both wrong ; 3 Bills wins easy
I could see this happening for sure,.. Not that I’d want it to in all cases.
That certainly ticks a lot of boxes. Looks good. But that leaves Dunkirk to only techs and Darkest Hour maybe shut-out.
In fact, if Darkest Hour takes British Film instead of Three Billboards, and Dunkirk gets a few of those techs … then all the top films will be represented by WINS.
Darkest Hour isn’t shut out if it wins Best Actor. And yes, I still expect Dunkirk to be relegated to techs, just like the Oscars.
Ah yes, Oldman. Duh. Thanks 🙂
Yup, all of this except for the acting upsets. (Both possible, though.)
I think Shape will win best pic at BAFTA—they prefer big productions in the vein of classical Hollywood cinema— and I don’t see how Darkest Hour loses British pic. However, McDormand, Rockwall, and McDonagh’s script will all win.
Nope. 3B or Dunkirk for the win.
you wish it.. dunkirk is dead
Not sure what it means if this happens. I guess del Toro’s film wins BP/BD, McDonagh’s film wins Actress and Supporting Actor, and Peele wins Original Screenplay? I find it hard to envision Three Billboards winning 3 above-the-line categories and missing BP.
Sally Hawkins will win this and the Oscar, I would bet the house on it (I’m renting so I’m fine either way).
I would be so so happy if that happens. I love Sally Hawkins
Second set of Oscar predictions (wishlist in bracket)
Picture: TSOW
Director: Del Toro
Actor: Oldman (Chalamet)
Actress: Frances (Sally Hawkins)
Supp Actor: Rockwell ( Dafoe )
Supp Actress: Janney (Metcalf)
Cinematography: Deakins
Screenplay orig: Get Out
Screenplay adap: CMBYN
Editing: Dunkirk
Animated film: Coco
Foreign film: A fantastic woman
Doc: Faces Places
Score: TSOW
Song: Remember Me (Mystery of Love)
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Sound Editing: Dunkirk (Baby Driver)
Production: TSOW (Blade Runner)
Costume: Phantom Thread
VFX: War of the planet of the apes
Make up: Darkest Hour
Animated Short : Dear Basketball
Live action Short : DeKalb elementary
Documentary Short : Heroin(e)
Lets see what BAFTA says.
I like these winners much than the likely winners.
I really hope Faces Places takes Best Documentary, but I’m skeptical (although it “helps” that Jane and Ex Libris and others are out of the race).
One thing to point out: BAFTA has split Best Film and Director only once since their voting system change in 2012 (and the one year where they did split, Gravity still won both Director and Best British Film). With no preferential ballot, the Brits are more consistently keen with giving their top two awards to the same film.
Predict accordingly.
I realized that too. It’s easy to understand why the split year was 2013, since 12 Years a Slave and Gravity splited everywhere, as Sasha mentioned. This year looks perfect for a split though.
McDonaghs not going to win BD and SHAPE is not going to win BP
If Three Billboards wins Best British Film, they aren’t giving it Best Film too.
Darkest Hour is likely winning BBF for the good reasons I’ve stated below
3 Bills is easily winning BP ….and you can frame this comment for posterity and bet the farm on it
I’m sure you’ll do that on your own if it came to pass. And rightfully so 🙂
Also should also be noted since Bafta changed their voting the Globes hadn’t split either. They did this year.
Bafta usual follows the Globes lead. (La La Land, The Revenant, Boyhood, Atonement, Brokeback , The Aviator are just the non-BP winners). Also in acting Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs, Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle ect.
It’s to do with the timing (Bafta voting opening two days after the Globes) Three Billboards is the easy Picture winner. (I think likely British Picture too. Throw out the stats when British film was a jury award.) Director is the tossup between Nolan and del Toro.
Alfred, the one thing I am thinking about but I am a bit scared whether to pull the trigger or not. Should I switch to McDonagh for directing? Marshall keeps saying how Best Film and Best Director are usually tied together at the BAFTA. With the Oscars snubbing McDonagh, do you think that BAFTA might wanna make a statement a little bit?! What do you think? Am I crazy? Or should I just stick with the safe. There has to be one big surprise at the BAFTA. Not sure about the acting categories.
Del Toro is the fav to win but it’s not a safe bet : Nolan can win but is not safe either ..McDonagh is a long shot and very unlikely IMO…55% 45% Del Toro
You should probably go Shape for BP/BD at BAFTA, and with a 3B/Shape split for BP/BD at the Oscars. 🙂
Why couldn’t it win both? The King’s Speech did just that.
That being said, as I’ve said in my predictions, I think the most likely scenario has them giving BBF to Darkest Hour and Best Film to Three Billboards since both were nominated for both awards. However, if 3B gets BBF, I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets BF too.
Three Billboards isn’t The King’s Speech. Please don’t make me actually list the ways it isn’t.
Well, we don’t really know if they like it that much or not. 3B certainly did very well with its nominations, even making a surprise appearance in cinematography. Obviously it was never going to get nods for Costumes, Production Design, Sound, or Makeup, but it got everything else it could get except for Music (which isn’t all that surprising).
Again, I don’t think it’s going to happen, but given its obvious popularity with its nine nominations (which includes all of the major categories it could get), it’s certainly a possibility.
Plenty of films do well with BAFTA nominations. But very rarely does one film take both film awards there. And the one film to do it ever since the BAFTA became an Oscars precursor in 2000 was a Weinstein-backed memento of George VI that swept the season after getting only one win at the Globes.
I think it’s mainly that Cinematography nomination that’s got me thinking it’s chances of doing so are a little better than that, though still a bit of a longshot. The only nominee that didn’t match with AMPAS was Mudbound, which obviously they didn’t like that much (assuming it was eligible), but you would think the “replacement nominee” would be something more artful a la Phantom Thread or Call Me by Your Name, or even something technically impressive like Baby Driver. Heck, I would think I, Tonya would be in there before 3B. That’s not to say that 3B’s Cinematography is bad in any way, just that it’s strange they would choose to vote that into the category over the others. Perhaps it’s just indicative of how popular the film is in regards to its chances of winning Best Film.
La La Land’s surprise Best Sound Editing nomination was also indicative of its chances of winning Best Picture.
Sound Editing wasn’t a surprise nomination though. Sound Effects Editing/Sound Editing didn’t even expand from three to five nominees until 2006, so it’s hardly a shock that a universally-beloved musical like La La Land was able to get a nod there.
If you say so.
I much prefer 3B’s cinematography to I, Tonya’s or even Call Me By Your Name’s. I was very happy with that nomination.
Yeah, I don’t mean to make it sound like I think it was undeserving. I’m just surprised that it got in over what seemed like more-obvious nominees.
Yup – it was definitely surprising… Perhaps telling, too – we shall see. 🙂
Up until about 4 yrs ago the BBF was voted on by a small Jury , but now it’s the popular vote
In the last twenty years or so there’s only 4 times when a BP winner is actually in the BBF category and out of those 4 times only one movie has won both TKS
When the voters tick off 3 Bills to win , as I assume they will, it’s possible they will just automatically tick off it to win BBF too like they tick it off to win best actress THEY COULD , but it’s my intuitive hunch that they’ll spread the wealth and have their cake and eat it too, by giving BBF to a ”very British movie” like the Darkest Hour …
..they could even give it to Paddington since it’s a British Icon , has two famous Brit actors and is a box office smash
I’m not suggesting that the DH is a safe bet , it’s not, but I’d give it at least a 50/50 chance that I’ve bet on at 6-1
But maybe that’s also because most British Film winners were too weak in the Oscar race to also be awarded Best Film. (Which wasn’t the case with The King’s Speech, and probably isn’t the case with Three Billboards.) I also think Shape wins BAFTA BP, by the way.
Darkest Hour got the same number of noms
But not Director, Original Screenplay, or even Editing.
How about 3B winning Best Film and Darkest Hour winning Best British Film? That’s what I have now. Just don’t throw me off with that Best Director. Cause it’s hard for me to see Del Toro not winning that.
It’s very unlikely, but you never know… It’s not like it’s voted on by a panel.
Which would surely mean it can’t be Three Billboards since McDonagh isn’t nominated for BD. When was the last BAFTA BD, plus BP,was won by a film snubbed at the Academy awards (not including “Argo” which swept the boards everywhere)?
Sorry, just saw it’s since 2012. never mind.
Although, BD stat still applies. Paul Green Grass for “United 93” or Mike Leigh for “Vera Drake”?
Hmmm… How about if BAFTA really wants to make a statement and give Best Film to 3B and Best Director to McDonagh.. Too scared to predict it right now but I might. I am very confident that 3B will win at BAFTA but until now I was going with the split.
Like the Globes, I don’t think the BAFTA will go to The Shape of Water. They didn’t seem to love it so much, since all the nominations it had were expected and they snubbed Richard Jenkins for somehow. Three Billbaords, however, was even nominated for cinematography and they helped Harrelson.
Shape is a more typical BAFTA best picture winner, but you’re probably right. Plus, either way, I don’t see how they turn out down opting toward Darkest Hour as the best British film (they helped it as well) (even though it’s a bore).
Good points!
Best director is difficult to call ; on paper Del Toro wins but Nolan has a lot of hometown support and so it wouldn’t surprise me if he wins …I wouldn’t confidently bet on either
My predictions for BAFTA. BB and BD: “Dunkirk”. Best British film and BOS: Three Billboards. The acting winners are the same shitty winners as before.
TSOW should statistically win either BP or BD, but I am so convinced that “Dunkirk” has to win a bi award, either BP or BD, that I am predicting it for both because I am not sure which one it will win. I am picking to win both so I’ll get one of them right.
Three Billboards is so winning Best British film and Original Screenplay plus two acting awards that BAFTA will think it’s rewarded enough. I can’t see it winning more than four awards.
You’re dazed and confused again , unfortunately
Ah, yes, Richard linklater film. I like that film. You’re going to have more sense that, am afraid. You’re on here every trumpeting your bet is going to win. I am just going with the stats, at the Oscars. But at BAFTA I am going for what I think they like. No, stat unfortunately because BAFTA doesn’t any reliable stats. They pretty much go for what they like. Many times a film without BD nomination has won BP and vice versa. It’s BAFTA, man. relax. Anyway, I think “Dunkirk” is too big for BAFTA to ignore and I predict it will win either BP or BD.
I live in the UK and the Brits love 3 Bills …Dunkirk is never going to win BP but it could sneak a BD win with Nolan’s homeboy support
What makes me believe it is winning BP or BD is because Three Billboards will very likely win Best British film. and it will also win BOS and two acting awards. That four. It might also BP, but I think “Dunkirk” has to win something big. TSOW has to win something big stats wise. McDonagh is unlikely to win BD, because that be shocking and too silly. Nolan could win but Del Toro has to win something too, surely? I am not sure, so I put “Dunkirk” for both because I am most confident it will either BD or BP.
3 Bills is not winning BBF because …..
A / It doesn’t resonate as British and was shot entirely in America
B /Because it’s clearly winning best Picture and so they don’t need to reward it again
It’s nominated and there’s more than enough British influence . How can the Best Picture lose Best British film? I don’t think resonance has anything to do with it. And if we too that why then would “Dunkirk” not dominate and win BP and BD? It will look silly for Three Billboards to lose BF and still win BP. A bit like what “The Queen” losing BBF to “The Last King of Scotland yet still won BP. I think that was the last time that happened.
In around the last 20 yrs only once has the BP winner also won the BBF and that was the very British King’s Speech
3 Bills is not going to win both
I didn’t say it was going to win both. I said it’s more likely to win the easier award which is BBF. 2The “Queen” and “Atonement” lost BBF but still won BP back to back years . Let me put this way: if Three Billboards loses BBF its chances at the Oscars will be shortened quite significantly. Why do you thin TKS was able to win while the other BBF losers didn’t any BP at the Oscars? The Academy will be watching and if Three Billboard loses BBF, it will signal to the that it’s not worthy film. BAFTA voter have to vote for the best in each category or their award will look like a fraud. It’s not difficult to expect BP winner would also win Best British Film too.
So who’s winning instead?
see below
You should go Dunkirk for pic and GDT for director, if you think Dunkirk is winning one! The other way around makes almost zero sense to me.
I think it’s winning but not sure which one. I am more certain of “Dunkirk” winning one of the big two than TSOW. I am simply covering the bases.
Fair enough – I’m way more certain of Shape winning one of the big two. 🙂 I might be wrong, but I tend to not be in these spots… I usually know (or strongly suspect) when I’m about to be wrong, and this doesn’t feel like one of those times. (But I sure hope it is!)
The only upset at BAFTA that I see is the Darkest Hour for Best British Film
The voters have been habitually conditioned to expect two separate BP winners instead of one twice ..I expect 3 Bills to easily win BP , BA , BSA and likely BSP , and so they can afford to spread the wealth and vote for a ”very british film ” in the BBF category .
The problem for 3 Bills is that it just doesn’t resonate as British while the Darkest Hour surely does ..both have the same amount of noms , while Oldman is clearly winning best actor ; and furthermore , Dunkirk is not entered for tactical reasons and so the DH can get the total patriotic vote ,,,……”.they can have their cake and eat it too !”
by your reasoning which i agree – 3b doesn’t resonate as a British film (not that that has stopped BAFTA rewarding a seemingly non British type film as Best British Film in the past decade); then why is it a shoo in for Best Picture at BAFTA. I too can see Darkest Hour getting British Film and one of Shape of Water or Dunkirk Best Film.
OK, spent half the day on stats and precedents again… And I came up with the following – very close to final – percentages for the Best Picture win. The good news would be that I found more than enough precedents for a Three Billboards win, compared to The Shape of Water’s (making comparable concessions to dissimilarity in both cases, because otherwise one would be unable to find more than 2-3 precedents in total, which wouldn’t be very helpful.) Whether the precedents for Shape slightly outnumber the precedents for Billboards, or vice-versa, is probably quite a bit up to one’s interpretation/tastes. I’ve never given such close percentages between the #1 favorite and the #2 favorite before in my life and, since I’m sticking with the prediction system I described recently, in its slightly updated form, and am thus predicting Three Billboards to win, I may have had a slight bias in that direction. However, it should be noted that a majority of Shape’s precedents come from the pre-PGA era, where I had to make some pretty shady assumptions (based mostly on stats, but very mediocre ones – there’s a pretty large file on my laptop now, containing those, that I’m not yet sure what to do with) about what would have won the PGA and SAG Ensemble, based on what kinds of movies won those since 1990/1996. In the PGA era, Three Billboards wins the precedents war something like 6 to 3, at least. This, without any bias, I dare say. There’s only one preferential era precedent I used – last year’s race -, one which, of course, also favors Three Billboards.
So, long story short, here they are:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 42% (I’ve STILL not decided how much BAFTA will factor into the final percentages I give… There might still be some things to study first.)
The Shape of Water 39% (Based on my VERY rough estimate of a 13:12 ratio of close enough precedents between the two, between 1949 and 2017.)
Get Out 9% (Perhaps the most accurate/confident percentage on the whole list – which, however, isn’t saying much…)
Lady Bird 5% (Clearly lower than this, looking at absolute stats, but also maybe higher when looking only at non-standard races, like this year’s.)
Dunkirk 4% (Will drop to a pretty confident 3%, or maybe even 2%, once it loses BAFTA BP, which I’m assuming it will.)
Everything else 1% total. (Because they just don’t resemble even a single BP winner in the last 69 years, in either strength or trajectory, enough to call it
a precedent for their winning, making a win by any of those four a purely random and illogical scenario I don’t think has more than a 1% chance of coming to fruition, even in a messy year such as this.)
I might re-post.
“I found more than enough precedents for a Three Billboards win”
But there are literally only four precedents in all of Oscar history for a movie winning without a Best Director nomination. So how could there possibly be “more than enough” precedents to make it the frontrunner over a film that has all the necessary Oscar nods?
The SAG Ensemble stat rarely crumbles. It’s more significant that Best Director.
Not sure how you’re backing up the claim that SAG Ensemble is more significant than Best Director.
SAG Ensemble stat has been correct 20 out of 21 times = 95.2%
Best Director stat has been correct 85 out of 89 times = 95.5%
Statistically, they are almost exactly equal. The BD stat is actually a *little bit* stronger, and it also has by far the larger sample size. Ergo, I’m inclined to trust it more.
Yes, and there’s only one precedent for a movie winning without the SAG nod. Percentage-wise, again, it’s the same – 5%. If you look at it that way, you don’t have enough precedents for either, so that’s not very useful. That’s why I decided to equate the two, since their percentages are similar. I looked at races similar enough in all other ways except those two snubs. In addition to the Braveheart, Driving Miss Daisy and Argo years, of course. (I only looked at the WGA era.) Movies in a stronger position than Shape, or a similar one, have lost before (the likes of La La Land – didn’t lose the Globe, won a SAG award, was winning actress, Moonlight lost SAG, etc.), Brokeback Mountain, Saving Private Ryan, Reds, Born on the Fourth of July (unlikely to get snubbed by SAG, had it existed), Giant, A Place in the Sun, Johnny Belinda… and movies in a weaker position than Three Billboards have won before. (Crash, Driving Miss Daisy, Chariots of Fire, Around the World in 80 Days, An American in Paris, Hamlet…) If you get hung up on the BD snub alone (or the SAG snub alone), you’ll ignore other clues and precedents, which I don’t think is the way to go. But I could be wrong, of course, in this particular case. 🙂 I’ve admitted as much. The directing snub could just be unbeatable unless very specific conditions arise, like some people seem to think, and in this case it could be better to ignore everything else. I think most probably not, but it’s possible. We’ll know soon enough!
Question that just occurred to me. I know that Get Out has way more stats going against it than TSOW and 3B, which mostly have one big one each. But those big ones are SO big, and each of Get Out’s is smaller by comparison, so I was wondering if the cumulative strength of Get Out’s snubs adds up to less or more than the strength of TSOW’s and 3B’s? (Like, around 95%.) Would that be easy for you to figure out, or super time consuming?
Well, it’s already been figured out. 🙂 Just one of Get Out’s stats obstacles is much more prohibitive than both of those: no movie has won BP despite not being at least tied for 7th on the list of most nominated movies that year. (Which Get Out is below.) In the full 89 years of Oscars. Even Grand Hotel, with its sole nomination, was tied for 7th. Only six movies had two or more nominations that year – none more than four. Even if you add an extra nod for Get Out (assuming one of the misses, maybe editing, was a fluke), you still get only 2 movies that won without being at least tied for 5th, which is also Lady Bird’s situation. (And also the biggest industry stat The Big Short failed to two years ago – one I didn’t pay sufficient attention to at the time, perhaps.)
I mentioned these nomination ranking stats in one of my earlier big posts. (In the longest one, I believe, so I guess you didn’t read any/all of it.) Of course, maybe you don’t find this stat convincing in its logic – I do. Even then, the sum of all of the other, more well-known stats blocking Get Out’s path, but not that of the two favorites, surely more than compensates for the importance of the BD/SAG stats! Especially with no movie on zero major snubs. Which isn’t to say Get Out can’t win (see the 9% above, which will go up if it wins screenplay at BAFTA), but it’s definitely not the favorite under any interpretation that doesn’t ignore certain stats – unless it wins BAFTA screenplay, in which case it could be argued that, had Three Billboards been eligible for the WGA, it would have lost and thus been eliminated (like Shape) by the WGA loss plus one other industry snub rule, and Get Out would have been the only one left standing, the only one that didn’t have to break that rule or the equally bad two snub rule to win Best Picture. But even then it wouldn’t be clear that that’s the case, it would still be more speculation than anything else, because BAFTA and the WGA have diverged in weird ways sufficient times in the past (MBTS/Moonlight, SLP/Argo, American Hustle/Her, etc.) to make it quite unclear that it actually would’ve beaten 3B at the WGA too.
Thinking skipping this show altogether this year. Not gonna be pretty.
Somewhat a non sequitur but it’ll be interesting that in both BAFTA and Oscar there are nominees this year that used to be married. Last time I recall that being so in a given year was Bigelow and Cameron. This year it’s Oldman and Manville. Oldman was also previously married to another Oscar nominee. Just gossiping!
Oh. Should have added that Dunkirk could easily win the BADTa, and it could be the film that wins the Oscar. Same rationale as GO, different narrative of course. If this were 1990 or even 2000, it’s probably in. That would disappoint me a bit, but it is a great film
Only one movie can realistically win BAFTA and that’s 3 BILLS
how can you be so sure? You don’t think that the discourse around 3B hasn’t hurt it a little in Britain? McDonagh doesn’t carry that much heft does he? Dunkirk or Shape of Water could win too. I don’t see Call me by your name or Darkest Hour winning.
The real crucial element with BAFTA this year is that the Oscar voting only begins about 3 days after BAFTA instead of the usual before when many folks who vote early are not influenced by BAFTA ….when 3 Bills wins it will be like a shot of adrenalin in the arm to help it over the finish line , but it still could get tripped up by the preferencial ballot
yep and the question is which film can prevail on the preferential ballot?
It all hinges on BSP ..3 Bills must have it to win , while SHAPE can win without it …ergo , if get Out or Ladybird win BSP then SHAPE has surely won best picture
In the last 20 years only one movie has won Oscar after failing to be nominated for BP at Bafta ..it was Million Dollar Baby in 2004 and it won 4 Oscars !
GET OUT is no Million Dollar Baby !
That’s where stats i find don’t really help. Comparing two films that are 13 years apart and with such different content in different cultural landscapes may not help to predict this year. There was no preferential ballot in 2004.
At first I thought that Sasha had lost it (again-J/K-I adore this site). I think it’s a gutsy call, and, if I’m being honest, I kind of get her “logic.” It’s just been quietly sitting theee since early summer. Everyone seems to love it. I’ve not heard a bad word from anyone. I’ll agree that it’s not the kind of film to win, much less be nominated, but, hey; it’s a new era. It wouldn’t surprise me at all. I actually applaud her going with her gut here. I do have this feeling that 3B is most likely to win. It’s the kind of film that the Academy would typically reward. It’s deadly serious. Will that be enough to sink it on preferential?? Sasha’s betting it will, and she may just be right. I’m sticking with 3B–I don’t think the director snub will hurt it as much as most think it will. But the preferential thing. I just dunno. I’m going with GO as my alternate, based solely on gut. Can’t really back it up. I just don’t think SOW wins Pic. Director, almost a sure thing. I don’t see any of the other nommed films winning. LB, nah. Not DH. I would love it if CMBYN won, but I don’t see that. So–who’s your winner then?? I’m feeling a spreading of wealth this year.
SHAPE 50% ……3 BILLS 40%….. GET OUT 7%…. OTHERS 3%
I don’t see them going for SOW. Too “weird.”
Million Dollar Baby also won DGA and 2 SAG awards for acting.
Another reason why GO is not winning BP
GET OUT won WGA, DGA (First-Time Director), and PGA (Stanley Kramer Award).
Peele wasn’t competing with any of the Best Director or Best Picture nominees in DGA First Time Director. The Stanley Kramer PGA was an honorary award – not competitive one.
Probably irrelevant, but it does look interesting. 🙂 I guess SAG is the only place Get Out won nothing – which probably IS relevant…
The First-time director DGA win shows strong passion, at least among above-the-line people.
He won by default in a category where none of the other 4 Oscar nominees were eligible to compete as 1st time director.
Never understood how Eastwood won Best Director over Scorsese for The Aviator.
“Million Dollar Baby” did not have premiere in Great Britain on time so it actually coudn’t be nominated.
Am I the only one who thinks that, of all the acting categories, Actor is the one that actually has a chance to be an upset? I’m not saying it WILL happen, but it just feels to me that TC might be making up some ground on The Old Man. Especially since we’re a week later this year, it just wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t see The BAFTA going anywhere but to Oldman, Am o alone in sensing a bit of a shift and momentum for TC and CMBYN?? I’m just not convinced that it’s an actual sea change.
Um, Gary Oldman is 59. Unless you’re doing a play on words on his name…..
Totally a play on words!
🙂 Good or i was preparing a bitchy aside, like are you 12 years old? 59 has to be considered middle aged (please let that be so; he says in his 54th year of life) 🙂
I’d like to see it happen…. As a Brit, if I have to see another performance of Winston Churchill, I might top myself! I like to think of the year Adrien Brody won, where he beat Nicholson and Day Lewis, in a surprise. It would great to see Chalamet do it to Oldman and Day Lewis.
No, please. BTW Day-Lewis should have won for Gangs of New York instead of Brody.
NAH, It’s Oldman’s to lose. He may be the only sure thing in this unpredictable award season.
Do you think?? I disagree–only in so much as I think the other races are more locked.
Here’s a fun fact: REGARDLESS of who wins Best Actor, they will be among the Top 10 oldest or youngest ever winners in that category. Gary Oldman would be the 8th-oldest winner, Denzel Washington would be the 2nd oldest, Daniel Day-Lewis the 6th-oldest, and either Daniel Kaluuya or Timothee Chalamet winning would make them the youngest ever.
Funnily enough, if either Denzel or DDL win, they will have the unusual distinction of being among BOTH the oldest and youngest ever acting winners. Denzel is currently the 10th-youngest winner for Supporting Actor (GLORY), while DDL is the 7th-youngest ever Lead Actor winner (MY LEFT FOOT).
Even those stats favor Oldman. 🙂 He’s the closest one to the average…
I respectfully disagree, I think Best Actor is actually the most safe of the four acting categories. Gary Oldman has the BAFTA and the Oscar in the bag at this point in my opinion. Every British actor who won the Lead Actor SAG all went on to win BAFTA. The only award at both BAFTA and Oscar I see Call Me By Your Name winning is Adapted Screenplay. Call Me By Your Name is like this year’s Imitation Game where is wasn’t very likely to win Best Picture or an acting award but they wanted to award it somewhere, so they went with Adapted Screenplay. If anything in my opinion Call Me By Your Name has lost momentum. Chalamet’s momentum came when he won NY Film Critics and LA Film Critics, and he had some mojo then, but has totally lost it when he lost the Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG.
I always remember the BAFTAs was where Tilda Swinton started her charge for Michael Clayton. If Lesley Manville wins, watch out!
But Tilda Swinton had SAG nomination.
BAFTA are less reliable than they once were. Their choices for whatever reasons have not aligned with Oscar even with the crossover voters. But it’ll be something for us to chew over!
Most of their value comes in what wins the craft categories. They seem to align pretty often with the Oscars.
ESPECIALLY the Film Editing category in recent years.
thank you – I must admit i don’t pay attention to the techs (shame face :)) When I first started following BAFTA in the late 70’s they were so often so parochial; in recent years that is inconsistently so; and i find them a little baffling as to what films they endorse and which performances. Especially as a lot of the main films don’t get proper release until well into the new year. Like with our AACTA the international members get screeners or something, but it does seem a bit odd how strong a movie can show up when few have actually seen it!
I read the two anonymous ballots, and besides not understanding the love for Mudbound (I know I’m in the minority here), did one of them really need to be explained where Dunkirk was? I can’t believe it.
You would think a quick Google search would have done the trick.
Or half a brain.
Or half a brain.
Hope for a Dunkirk sweep at the BAFTA.
Lesley Manville wins BAFTA and carries that momentum toward Oscar.
There is some room for it. Even as a big Manville fan, and she is amazing in Phantom Thread, it is also a rather meme-friendly performance, which might capture votes.
SImilar case to Hawkins, but with less fierce competition.
Nah. She has no nods from BFCA, GG, SAG. Swinton did and also won in a year where the precursors were split. Not the case this year.
SAG is no important – “Phantom Thread” debuted too late to be nominated there.
As much as I love Three Billboards, I’d like BAFTAs to push Dunkirk. Because it deserves big recognition. Because it would fuck the Oscar race up even more.
But they’ll go big for Three Billboards.
I think it’s 1 of the 2 but’ll be a squeaker.
Nolan in Best Director is possible, even if Del Toro is winning everything.
Nah, Shape will win BAFTA, unfortunately. Original screenplay is all that matters, though.
Hugh Grant was fantastic in Paddington 2.
I really hope he’s not forgotten for next year’s Oscars.
It’s shameful P2 didn’t do bigger stateside. American family audiences have apparently become conditioned to only embrace simplistic, witless, poo-poo joke gibberish.
No fan of anonymous ballots being published before voting ends, let alone starts. I expect the Academy to at least try to restrict this in the future.
How? They’re anonymous
As I said, try. Probably by just telling voters not to do it and, if they must, wait until voting is concluded. (Obviously this is unlikely to work.)
Please don’t let them spoil what little pleasure I can eke out of these dark times we live in. It’s such a little thing and it means so much.
If any these voters are associated with any of the nominated films, they would already be in direct violation of Academy rules for speaking negatively about other nominees and would be punished if found out (which may not be that hard).
Does that extend to working for a particular studio or production company that has a contender?
The prohibition applies, yes. Not sure what the penalties would be if they aren’t AMPAS members, though.
That sounds like it could be a tricky area where contract work is involved— for example an academy member who is a publicist. They may not have worked on Three Billboards but are signed to do a campaign with Fox Searchlight- where is the line drawn? Or an academy member producer with a distribution deal with Focus? Overall bad idea to publicize these ahead of voting.
“Overall bad idea to publicize these ahead of voting.” Agreed. I’ll go further to say it’s a very bad idea.
If any these voters are associated with any of the nominated films, they would already be in direct violation of Academy rules for speaking negatively about other nominees and would be punished if found out (which may not be that hard).
Does that extend to working for a particular studio or production company that has a contender?
The prohibition applies, yes. Not sure what the penalties would be if they aren’t AMPAS members, though.
Interesting. Thanks.
That sounds like it could be a tricky area where contract work is involved— for example an academy member who is a publicist. They may not have worked on Three Billboards but are signed to do a campaign with Fox Searchlight- where is the line drawn? Or an academy member producer with a distribution deal with Focus? Overall bad idea to publicize these ahead of voting.
“Overall bad idea to publicize these ahead of voting.” Agreed. I’ll go further to say it’s a very bad idea.
Given that barely a dozen of these voters are willing to talk off-record every year, I’m pretty sure most in the know have a good idea of which Academy members would volunteer for this type of thing.
With everyone and his sister chiming in on the internet, how do we even know if these articles aren’t complete fabrications? Not that that would stop me from reading them
Pretty sure Scott Feinberg wouldn’t risk his reputation and career posting complete fabrications.
Well, I won’t let the fact that an article is true stop me, either.
As annoying as THR’s Brutally Honest ballots can be to read, at least THR has the good sense to wait until voting closed.
Never understood the purpose of these ballots. Probably just to show how awful and ignorant Academy members really are.
That I’d exactly the point of them.
Yeah. Honestly I think THR gets way more ballots than they publish, and they just publish the ones that are the most incendiary. “Chinese cartoons” anyone?
NGNG:
Ronan, Metcalf & Gerwig all win BAFTA’s and our heads explode.
I nev understand the double dipping o films in best film n best british film. Its so unfair to those non british films!
Bafta shld’ve a rule tt stipulates tt if a film is nom under the British category, it will not be nom under best film n vice-versa. Films who qualify for both shld simply make up their minds on which to forgo!
At least Dunkirk has the integrity NOT to submit for consideration under British film when it cld hav done so n it cld’ve easily won in that category!
They didn’t enter Dunkirk for tactical reasons because they figured it would weaken it’s chances in the BP category , and they are correct
I tink they din do so bcos they r not as shamelessly hungry for noms like 3BB or Darkest Hour. Lol
Anyway, the producers actually said althot its v British story, it is at heart a universal story tt cld happen anywhr. Thus, they decision to skip the British category .
I agree 1000% with everything in your post! I hate the double dipping, too.
I hope London pride helps ”Dunkirk” and Nolan win their BAFTAs. (If ”Dunkirk” wins Best Film, Nolan’s a co-producer. But I’m rooting for him to take Director, too!)
The most intriguing win here would be Dunkirk or Call Me By Your Name, both of which are likely to be popular (even if the latter can’t win Best Picture given the disappointing Oscar noms). I think awarding Darkest Hour (say in a tie) will be seen for what it is.
I expect this to be another Three Billboards sweep.
Feels ridiculous to imagine Dunkirk losing here and winning Oscar, so crunch time for Dunkirk, no more lurking will be tolerated.
Exactly. 🙂
The stats support that point of view.
BAFTA
Picture: Shape Of Water
British Film: Three Billboards
Director: del toro
Actor: Oldman
Actress: Hawkins
Supp Actor: Rockwell
Supp Actress: Manville
Original Screenplay: Three Billboards
Adapted Screenplay: CMBYN
I agreed w yo predictions but tink tt Bafta might wanna reward Dunkirk one o the big prizes.
Since Del Toro’s win is set, maybe Dunkirk will take Best Pic
dunkirk is not gonna win
I think these might be right. Damn I would love if Hawkins and Manville won and both got an Oscar boost!
I could see this happening for sure,.. Not that I’d want it to in all cases.
That certainly ticks a lot of boxes. Looks good. But that leaves Dunkirk to only techs and Darkest Hour maybe shut-out.
In fact, if Darkest Hour takes British Film instead of Three Billboards, and Dunkirk gets a few of those techs … then all the top films will be represented by WINS.
Darkest Hour isn’t shut out if it wins Best Actor. And yes, I still expect Dunkirk to be relegated to techs, just like the Oscars.
Ah yes, Oldman. Duh. Thanks 🙂
Yup, all of this except for the acting upsets. (Both possible, though.)
I am really glad that of the Two Honest Oscar Ballots already revealed this year (one in Indiwire and one on The Daily Beast), the two Academy Members voted in Gary Oldman for Best Actor, and both had “3 Bilboards” and “Shape of Water” head to head. And the Indiwire Academy Member interviewed (A WOMAN from the Costumer Designers Branch) huge stated that “Lady Bird” is soooooo overrated and didn’t understand why it got all the praise.
And I think it is important to say that The Daily Beast Academy Member, in the first phase of Oscar voting process, voted for “I, Tonya”, and now is voting for “The Shape of Water” and “3 Bilboards” for Best Picture.
For a minute, I thought it was the same person. I agree that the designer gowns in Phantom Thread were fugly but I kinda thought that was the point. Maybe?
But I almost fell off my chair when she said that BR2049’s Production Design was bad. What was it supposed to look like? It had to look the same with slight modifications. It was a sequel not a remake.
I think they both were very honest in their interviews, and besides one point or another, they clearly stated and accurately analised the race. I was thinking. I know it is a sample of two votes, but can we have an upset in the Adapted Screenplay Category? Neither ballots mentioned “Call Me By Your Name”, and one of the them (The Costumer Designer Academy Member) is really crazy about “Mudboud”. Anyway, I am really glad about two things: Oldman is winning and “3 Bilboards” blacklash seems a twitter thing. Both it and “Shape of Water” are very rewarding. (I am also very glad that one of them clearly didn’t like Lady Bird, which, yes, is really overrated.)
Yeah, like the opinion of the two people is representative of the Academy’s taste. Chill, mate!
Yeah, just like when more than 90% of the ballots published by The Hollywood Reported had Stallone as the winner. It appeared like a foregone conclusion. And we know what happened.
Morons accusing 3BB of being racist while ignoring movies about Churchill, who in today’s world would be in jail for hate crimes for the crap that he spouted.
Churchill doesn’t utter a single racist sentence *in the movie*, so your analogy is brainless.
You miss the point of the critique entirely.
We can’t expect people of previous generations to hold up to our modern standards because those weren’t the standards back then. Instead what is important is to celebrate the good things that they did.
Let’s look at examples:
Aristotle, considered by many to be the greatest philosopher of the antiquity and along with the Bible was the most important word in European science for almost a thousand years and thus one of the basic elements of Western thinking, thought that women were inherently weaker and irrational and thought that man’s place was over women
Bartolomé de la Casas is considered to be one of the first human rights activists for criticizing the way Native Americans were attacked by for example Columbus. But he was also one of the people who noted that maybe they could instead transport slaves from Africa, at least helping the creation of the trans-Atlantic slave trade.
Plato’s utopia is in several ways comparable to a totalitarian state, Voltaire didn’t think people of color were necessarily as human as white people and thought that demcoracy would emphasize the idiocy of the masses and any piece of baroque art is basically an advertisement for strong monarchy and the overpower of the Catholic church. The cases go on
Ugh! Not this again. You can’t whitewash history. You can still appreciate their achievements or even the person. To brush out their worst behaviour or believes is just straight out fucking con.
WTF?? Did Moonlighf not win last year? Or is she talking about BAFTA?
The original poster specifically said that we can’t appreciate the person or his acts because he was a monster and thus celebrating a film about him is wrong.
And I’m not saying that these things should be forgotten at all. All I’m saying is that people live in the time period they live in and we as modern people criticizing people for the cultural attitudes of their time is taking the most idiotic moral high ground imaginable and that if we start judging some of the most notable people in history who helped positively to get us to where we are by their worst elements by using retroactive moral codes, soon we’ll have no one that we consider to be good left. Every single ideology and person will be thought of as wrong because nothing is “pure”.
And what is the point of attacking someone like Churchill anymore? He is dead and the horrible things he said are not going to get anyone to become a social Darwinist, an Anti-semite, hateful towards muslims or an imperialist. I’m sorry for all the suffering his words might have caused back in the day but what is the point of defining him by these things that, to be honest, were quite normal attitudes in the early 1900s when he was young. What do we gain by saying: Churchill should not be respected, we must treat him as if he lived today and still said the same things. Of course in the particular case of Churchill the famine in India was something that he actually caused and that the people of India have every right to be angry about. But couldn’t we other than that define him and people like him MOSTLY by the good things he did as that way the world might look a bit more like its history isn’t full of the most disgusting people?
Is it important that we note that he wasn’t perfect and criticize him? Without a doubt. But is it useful in any way to emphasize that as the only thing about him that we need to define him by? In no way what so ever at least in my opinion.
As Tom O’Neil has repeatedly said, 12 Slaves won because people who didn’t even watch it voted for it because they felt they had to. Ditto for Moonlight.
“As Tom O’Neil has repeatedly said…”
It’s cool how Tom O’Neil is able to track the whereabouts of Oscar voters so he can keep a record of which movies they’ve seen.
It’s even cooler that Tom fucking O’Neil gets to see which ballots come from which Academy members, so he can then compare their votes to his investigation files into which movies those voters saw.
But I wish Tom wouldn’t “repeatedly” brag about the way he gets to know all this bullshit.
Tom O’Neill is a tool, a bitter old man who thinks that nasty sarcasm is an acceptable substitute for wit.
Sorry, why do we all hate Tom? Can somebody catch me up? I use goldderby but mostly for the prediction centre but I have never seen anything from Tom that seems unpleasant? Also in this specific circumstance I remember seeing that and he actually said he spoke to some people who said they didn’t watch it but voted for it. He never said that it is why it won or that heaps of people did it.
I like Tom O’Neill also. He’s very entertaining and I love when he gets into arguments about Best Picture. Plus, he’s on the 3B train so that’s an added bonus for me this year. We’ll see.
I don’t hate Tom at all. Far from it. Tom is Terrific.
I just look askance at anyone who tries to claim they know 12 Years only won Best Picture because a bunch of highly independent brilliant voters filling out their anonymous ballots got bullied into voting for a movie they never saw.
I’m also a fairly big fan of bitchy gay cattiness as a form of “wit” https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/89a547c676ed00d559ec7ce7dd41e8de0c5d2c5c165cfa3ff6bae2e253bbe5a1.gif
He’s right, it’s true. Typical liberal Hollywood hypocrisy.
What makes him right? because you agree with him?
You know people have repeatedly said Tom O’Neil says these things even though he’s doesn’t know that many, if any, Academy members.
12 Years won bc it was a Fucking great movie. Period.
Those are both true (that it won and that it’s great) but I’m not as sure as you that they’re related… 🙂
Test
Oh shit. Pop Quiz.
I think Shape will win best pic at BAFTA—they prefer big productions in the vein of classical Hollywood cinema— and I don’t see how Darkest Hour loses British pic. However, McDormand, Rockwall, and McDonagh’s script will all win.
Not sure what it means if this happens. I guess del Toro’s film wins BP/BD, McDonagh’s film wins Actress and Supporting Actor, and Peele wins Original Screenplay? I find it hard to envision Three Billboards winning 3 above-the-line categories and missing BP.
Second set of Oscar predictions (wishlist in bracket)
Picture: TSOW
Director: Del Toro
Actor: Oldman (Chalamet)
Actress: Frances (Sally Hawkins)
Supp Actor: Rockwell ( Dafoe )
Supp Actress: Janney (Metcalf)
Cinematography: Deakins
Screenplay orig: Get Out
Screenplay adap: CMBYN
Editing: Dunkirk
Animated film: Coco
Foreign film: A fantastic woman
Doc: Faces Places
Score: TSOW
Song: Remember Me (Mystery of Love)
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Sound Editing: Dunkirk (Baby Driver)
Production: TSOW (Blade Runner)
Costume: Phantom Thread
VFX: War of the planet of the apes
Make up: Darkest Hour
Animated Short : Dear Basketball
Live action Short : DeKalb elementary
Documentary Short : Heroin(e)
Lets see what BAFTA says.
I like these winners much than the likely winners.
I really hope Faces Places takes Best Documentary, but I’m skeptical (although it “helps” that Jane and Ex Libris and others are out of the race).
One thing to point out: BAFTA has split Best Film and Director only once since their voting system change in 2012 (and the one year where they did split, Gravity still won both Director and Best British Film). With no preferential ballot, the Brits are more consistently keen with giving their top two awards to the same film.
Predict accordingly.
McDonaghs not going to win BD and SHAPE is not going to win BP
If Three Billboards wins Best British Film, they aren’t giving it Best Film too.
Why couldn’t it win both? The King’s Speech did just that.
That being said, as I’ve said in my predictions, I think the most likely scenario has them giving BBF to Darkest Hour and Best Film to Three Billboards since both were nominated for both awards. However, if 3B gets BBF, I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets BF too.
Three Billboards isn’t The King’s Speech. Please don’t make me actually list the ways it isn’t.
How about 3B winning Best Film and Darkest Hour winning Best British Film? That’s what I have now. Just don’t throw me off with that Best Director. Cause it’s hard for me to see Del Toro not winning that.
It’s very unlikely, but you never know… It’s not like it’s voted on by a panel.
Which would surely mean it can’t be Three Billboards since McDonagh isn’t nominated for BD. When was the last BAFTA BD, plus BP,was won by a film snubbed at the Academy awards (not including “Argo” which swept the boards everywhere)?
Sorry, just saw it’s since 2012. never mind.
Hmmm… How about if BAFTA really wants to make a statement and give Best Film to 3B and Best Director to McDonagh.. Too scared to predict it right now but I might. I am very confident that 3B will win at BAFTA but until now I was going with the split.
Best director is difficult to call ; on paper Del Toro wins but Nolan has a lot of hometown support and so it wouldn’t surprise me if he wins …I wouldn’t confidently bet on either
My predictions for BAFTA. BB and BD: “Dunkirk”. Best British film and BOS: Three Billboards. The acting winners are the same shitty winners as before.
TSOW should statistically win either BP or BD, but I am so convinced that “Dunkirk” has to win a bi award, either BP or BD, that I am predicting it for both because I am not sure which one it will win. I am picking to win both so I’ll get one of them right.
Three Billboards is so winning Best British film and Original Screenplay plus two acting awards that BAFTA will think it’s rewarded enough. I can’t see it winning more than four awards.
You’re dazed and confused again , unfortunately
Ah, yes, Richard linklater film. I like that film. You’re going to have more sense that, am afraid. You’re on here every trumpeting your bet is going to win. I am just going with the stats, at the Oscars. But at BAFTA I am going for what I think they like. No, stat unfortunately because BAFTA doesn’t any reliable stats. They pretty much go for what they like. Many times a film without BD nomination has won BP and vice versa. It’s BAFTA, man. relax. Anyway, I think “Dunkirk” is too big for BAFTA to ignore and I predict it will win either BP or BD.
I live in the UK and the Brits love 3 Bills …Dunkirk is never going to win BP but it could sneak a BD win with Nolan’s homeboy support
What makes me believe it is winning BP or BD is because Three Billboards will very likely win Best British film. and it will also win BOS and two acting awards. That four. It might also BP, but I think “Dunkirk” has to win something big. TSOW has to win something big stats wise. McDonagh is unlikely to win BD, because that be shocking and too silly. Nolan could win but Del Toro has to win something too, surely? I am not sure, so I put “Dunkirk” for both because I am most confident it will either BD or BP.
3 Bills is not winning BBF because …..
A / It doesn’t resonate as British and was shot entirely in America
B /Because it’s clearly winning best Picture and so they don’t need to reward it again
It’s nominated and there’s more than enough British influence . How can the Best Picture lose Best British film? I don’t think resonance has anything to do with it. And if we too that why then would “Dunkirk” not dominate and win BP and BD? It will look silly for Three Billboards to lose BF and still win BP. A bit like what “The Queen” losing BBF to “The Last King of Scotland yet still won BP. I think that was the last time that happened.
In around the last 20 yrs only once has the BP winner also won the BBF and that was the very British King’s Speech
3 Bills is not going to win both
You should go Dunkirk for pic and GDT for director, if you think Dunkirk is winning one! The other way around makes almost zero sense to me.
I think it’s winning but not sure which one. I am more certain of “Dunkirk” winning one of the big two than TSOW. I am simply covering the bases.
Somewhat a non sequitur but it’ll be interesting that in both BAFTA and Oscar there are nominees this year that used to be married. Last time I recall that being so in a given year was Bigelow and Cameron. This year it’s Oldman and Manville. Oldman was also previously married to another Oscar nominee. Just gossiping!
Oh. Should have added that Dunkirk could easily win the BADTa, and it could be the film that wins the Oscar. Same rationale as GO, different narrative of course. If this were 1990 or even 2000, it’s probably in. That would disappoint me a bit, but it is a great film
In the last 20 years only one movie has won Oscar after failing to be nominated for BP at Bafta ..it was Million Dollar Baby in 2004 and it won 4 Oscars !
GET OUT is no Million Dollar Baby !
That’s where stats i find don’t really help. Comparing two films that are 13 years apart and with such different content in different cultural landscapes may not help to predict this year. There was no preferential ballot in 2004.
At first I thought that Sasha had lost it (again-J/K-I adore this site). I think it’s a gutsy call, and, if I’m being honest, I kind of get her “logic.” It’s just been quietly sitting theee since early summer. Everyone seems to love it. I’ve not heard a bad word from anyone. I’ll agree that it’s not the kind of film to win, much less be nominated, but, hey; it’s a new era. It wouldn’t surprise me at all. I actually applaud her going with her gut here. I do have this feeling that 3B is most likely to win. It’s the kind of film that the Academy would typically reward. It’s deadly serious. Will that be enough to sink it on preferential?? Sasha’s betting it will, and she may just be right. I’m sticking with 3B–I don’t think the director snub will hurt it as much as most think it will. But the preferential thing. I just dunno. I’m going with GO as my alternate, based solely on gut. Can’t really back it up. I just don’t think SOW wins Pic. Director, almost a sure thing. I don’t see any of the other nommed films winning. LB, nah. Not DH. I would love it if CMBYN won, but I don’t see that. So–who’s your winner then?? I’m feeling a spreading of wealth this year.
Million Dollar Baby also won DGA and 2 SAG awards for acting.
Another reason why GO is not winning BP
GET OUT won WGA, DGA (First-Time Director), and PGA (Stanley Kramer Award).
Peele wasn’t competing with any of the Best Director or Best Picture nominees in DGA First Time Director. The Stanley Kramer PGA was an honorary award – not competitive one.
Probably irrelevant, but it does look interesting. 🙂 I guess SAG is the only place Get Out won nothing – which probably IS relevant…
The First-time director DGA win shows strong passion, at least among above-the-line people.
He won by default in a category where none of the other 4 Oscar nominees were eligible to compete as 1st time director.
“Million Dollar Baby” did not have premiere in Great Britain on time so it actually coudn’t be nominated.
Am I the only one who thinks that, of all the acting categories, Actor is the one that actually has a chance to be an upset? I’m not saying it WILL happen, but it just feels to me that TC might be making up some ground on The Old Man. Especially since we’re a week later this year, it just wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t see The BAFTA going anywhere but to Oldman, Am o alone in sensing a bit of a shift and momentum for TC and CMBYN?? I’m just not convinced that it’s an actual sea change.
Um, Gary Oldman is 59. Unless you’re doing a play on words on his name…..
Totally a play on words!
I’d like to see it happen…. As a Brit, if I have to see another performance of Winston Churchill, I might top myself! I like to think of the year Adrien Brody won, where he beat Nicholson and Day Lewis, in a surprise. It would great to see Chalamet do it to Oldman and Day Lewis.
Here’s a fun fact: REGARDLESS of who wins Best Actor, they will be among the Top 10 oldest or youngest ever winners in that category. Gary Oldman would be the 8th-oldest winner, Denzel Washington would be the 2nd oldest, Daniel Day-Lewis the 6th-oldest, and either Daniel Kaluuya or Timothee Chalamet winning would make them the youngest ever.
Funnily enough, if either Denzel or DDL win, they will have the unusual distinction of being among BOTH the oldest and youngest ever acting winners. Denzel is currently the 10th-youngest winner for Supporting Actor (GLORY), while DDL is the 7th-youngest ever Lead Actor winner (MY LEFT FOOT).
Even those stats favor Oldman. 🙂 He’s the closest one to the average…
I respectfully disagree, I think Best Actor is actually the most safe of the four acting categories. Gary Oldman has the BAFTA and the Oscar in the bag at this point in my opinion. Every British actor who won the Lead Actor SAG all went on to win BAFTA. The only award at both BAFTA and Oscar I see Call Me By Your Name winning is Adapted Screenplay. Call Me By Your Name is like this year’s Imitation Game where is wasn’t very likely to win Best Picture or an acting award but they wanted to award it somewhere, so they went with Adapted Screenplay. If anything in my opinion Call Me By Your Name has lost momentum. Chalamet’s momentum came when he won NY Film Critics and LA Film Critics, and he had some mojo then, but has totally lost it when he lost the Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG.
I always remember the BAFTAs was where Tilda Swinton started her charge for Michael Clayton. If Lesley Manville wins, watch out!
But Tilda Swinton had SAG nomination.
BAFTA are less reliable than they once were. Their choices for whatever reasons have not aligned with Oscar even with the crossover voters. But it’ll be something for us to chew over!
Most of their value comes in what wins the craft categories. They seem to align pretty often with the Oscars.
ESPECIALLY the Film Editing category in recent years.
thank you – I must admit i don’t pay attention to the techs (shame face :)) When I first started following BAFTA in the late 70’s they were so often so parochial; in recent years that is inconsistently so; and i find them a little baffling as to what films they endorse and which performances. Especially as a lot of the main films don’t get proper release until well into the new year. Like with our AACTA the international members get screeners or something, but it does seem a bit odd how strong a movie can show up when few have actually seen it!
I read the two anonymous ballots, and besides not understanding the love for Mudbound (I know I’m in the minority here), did one of them really need to be explained where Dunkirk was? I can’t believe it.
Lesley Manville wins BAFTA and carries that momentum toward Oscar.
There is some room for it. Even as a big Manville fan, and she is amazing in Phantom Thread, it is also a rather meme-friendly performance, which might capture votes.
SImilar case to Hawkins, but with less fierce competition.
Nah. She has no nods from BFCA, GG, SAG. Swinton did and also won in a year where the precursors were split. Not the case this year.
SAG is no important – “Phantom Thread” debuted too late to be nominated there.
As much as I love Three Billboards, I’d like BAFTAs to push Dunkirk. Because it deserves big recognition. Because it would fuck the Oscar race up even more.
But they’ll go big for Three Billboards.
I think it’s 1 of the 2 but’ll be a squeaker.
Nah, Shape will win BAFTA, unfortunately. Original screenplay is all that matters, though.
Hugh Grant was fantastic in Paddington 2.
I really hope he’s not forgotten for next year’s Oscars.
It’s shameful P2 didn’t do bigger stateside. American family audiences have apparently become conditioned to only embrace simplistic, witless, poo-poo joke gibberish.
No fan of anonymous ballots being published before voting ends, let alone starts. I expect the Academy to at least try to restrict this in the future.
How? They’re anonymous
Given that barely a dozen of these voters are willing to talk off-record every year, I’m pretty sure most in the know have a good idea of which Academy members would volunteer for this type of thing.
With everyone and his sister chiming in on the internet, how do we even know if these articles aren’t complete fabrications? Not that that would stop me from reading them
Pretty sure Scott Feinberg wouldn’t risk his reputation and career posting complete fabrications.
Well, I won’t let the fact that an article is true stop me, either.
As annoying as THR’s Brutally Honest ballots can be to read, at least THR has the good sense to wait until voting closed.
NGNG:
Ronan, Metcalf & Gerwig all win BAFTA’s and our heads explode.
The most intriguing win here would be Dunkirk or Call Me By Your Name, both of which are likely to be popular (even if the latter can’t win Best Picture given the disappointing Oscar noms). I think awarding Darkest Hour (say in a tie) will be seen for what it is.
I expect this to be another Three Billboards sweep.
Feels ridiculous to imagine Dunkirk losing here and winning Oscar, so crunch time for Dunkirk, no more lurking will be tolerated.
Exactly. 🙂
The stats support that point of view.
I am really glad that of the Two Honest Oscar Ballots already revealed this year (one in Indiwire and one on The Daily Beast), the two Academy Members voted in Gary Oldman for Best Actor, and both had “3 Bilboards” and “Shape of Water” head to head. And the Indiwire Academy Member interviewed (A WOMAN from the Costumer Designers Branch) huge stated that “Lady Bird” is soooooo overrated and didn’t understand why it got all the praise.
And I think it is important to say that The Daily Beast Academy Member, in the first phase of Oscar voting process, voted for “I, Tonya”, and now is voting for “The Shape of Water” and “3 Bilboards” for Best Picture.
For a minute, I thought it was the same person. I agree that the designer gowns in Phantom Thread were fugly but I kinda thought that was the point. Maybe?
But I almost fell off my chair when she said that BR2049’s Production Design was bad. What was it supposed to look like? It had to look the same with slight modifications. It was a sequel not a remake.
I think they both were very honest in their interviews, and besides one point or another, they clearly stated and accurately analised the race. I was thinking. I know it is a sample of two votes, but can we have an upset in the Adapted Screenplay Category? Neither ballots mentioned “Call Me By Your Name”, and one of the them (The Costumer Designer Academy Member) is really crazy about “Mudboud”. Anyway, I am really glad about two things: Oldman is winning and “3 Bilboards” blacklash seems a twitter thing. Both it and “Shape of Water” are very rewarding. (I am also very glad that one of them clearly didn’t like Lady Bird, which, yes, is really overrated.)
Yeah, like the opinion of the two people is representative of the Academy’s taste. Chill, mate!
Morons accusing 3BB of being racist while ignoring movies about Churchill, who in today’s world would be in jail for hate crimes for the crap that he spouted.
You miss the point of the critique entirely.
We can’t expect people of previous generations to hold up to our modern standards because those weren’t the standards back then. Instead what is important is to celebrate the good things that they did.
Let’s look at examples:
Aristotle, considered by many to be the greatest philosopher of the antiquity and along with the Bible was the most important word in European science for almost a thousand years and thus one of the basic elements of Western thinking, thought that women were inherently weaker and irrational and thought that man’s place was over women
Bartolomé de la Casas is considered to be one of the first human rights activists for criticizing the way Native Americans were attacked by for example Columbus. But he was also one of the people who noted that maybe they could instead transport slaves from Africa, at least helping the creation of the trans-Atlantic slave trade.
Plato’s utopia is in several ways comparable to a totalitarian state, Voltaire didn’t think people of color were necessarily as human as white people and thought that demcoracy would emphasize the idiocy of the masses and any piece of baroque art is basically an advertisement for strong monarchy and the overpower of the Catholic church. The cases go on
Ugh! Not this again. You can’t whitewash history. You can still appreciate their achievements or even the person. To brush out their worst behaviour or believes is just straight out fucking con.
WTF?? Did Moonlighf not win last year? Or is she talking about BAFTA?
The original poster specifically said that we can’t appreciate the person or his acts because he was a monster and thus celebrating a film about him is wrong.
And I’m not saying that these things should be forgotten at all. All I’m saying is that people live in the time period they live in and we as modern people criticizing people for the cultural attitudes of their time is taking the most idiotic moral high ground imaginable and that if we start judging some of the most notable people in history who helped positively to get us to where we are by their worst elements by using retroactive moral codes, soon we’ll have no one that we consider to be good left. Every single ideology and person will be thought of as wrong because nothing is “pure”.
And what is the point of attacking someone like Churchill anymore? He is dead and the horrible things he said are not going to get anyone to become a social Darwinist, an Anti-semite, hateful towards muslims or an imperialist. I’m sorry for all the suffering his words might have caused back in the day but what is the point of defining him by these things that, to be honest, were quite normal attitudes in the early 1900s when he was young. What do we gain by saying: Churchill should not be respected, we must treat him as if he lived today and still said the same things. Of course in the particular case of Churchill the famine in India was something that he actually caused and that the people of India have every right to be angry about. But couldn’t we other than that define him and people like him MOSTLY by the good things he did as that way the world might look a bit more like its history isn’t full of the most disgusting people?
Is it important that we note that he wasn’t perfect and criticize him? Without a doubt. But is it useful in any way to emphasize that as the only thing about him that we need to define him by? In no way what so ever at least in my opinion.
As Tom O’Neil has repeatedly said, 12 Slaves won because people who didn’t even watch it voted for it because they felt they had to. Ditto for Moonlight.
“As Tom O’Neil has repeatedly said…”
It’s cool how Tom O’Neil is able to track the whereabouts of Oscar voters so he can keep a record of which movies they’ve seen.
It’s even cooler that Tom fucking O’Neil gets to see which ballots come from which Academy members, so he can then compare their votes to his investigation files into which movies those voters saw.
But I wish Tom wouldn’t “repeatedly” brag about the way he gets to know all this bullshit.
You know people have repeatedly said Tom O’Neil says these things even though he’s doesn’t know that many, if any, Academy members.
12 Years won bc it was a Fucking great movie. Period.
Those are both true (that it won and that it’s great) but I’m not as sure as you that they’re related… 🙂
Test
Oh shit. Pop Quiz.