It will all be over soon! One more agonizing week, Oscar watchers, and the whole thing comes to a wild finish. As of now, some have put out their predictions. The Gurus of Gold have turned them in, mostly, give or take a person or two in all of the categories. The pundits have seemed to coalesce around The Shape of Water winning Best Picture. And that is a good prediction, I’d say, over all. If it gets a boost from the BAFTA it’s possible that it can overcome the divisive nature of the preferential ballot and win. It needs to come in at number one or two. If it can do that, it can possibly win.
The only holdouts are me and Greg Ellwood. David Poland has Three Billboards.
Scott Feinberg also has The Shape of Water out front, but does have Get Out at number 2, which says a lot. You have to weigh lack of a SAG ensemble nomination against four Oscar noms and no crafts. Both are great films. My preliminary polling told me that it was Dunkirk vs. Get Out, but I’m going to do it again in one week and see if that changed. Get Out is revealing itself to be pretty teflon by this point. If it was going to deflate it would have already. By the same token, Shape of Water also seems to be growing in popularity, not dipping. So it’s going to be competitive with all of these movies and that’s going to make the preferential ballot do something weird. Or not.
Mostly, though, the prediction consensus is coming into shape, so to speak, and they are mostly what Feinberg has put down, I’d say. There is guess work to be done in documentary feature, foreign language film, and the short categories but the frontrunners look to be in place here in the last moments of the race and those are:
Picture – Shape of Water vs. Get Out vs. Dunkirk vs. Lady Bird vs. Three Billboards
Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Supporting Actress: Alison Janney, I Tonya (with Laurie Metcalf as potential spoiler because it has a BP nomination)
Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Director – Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water
Adapted Screenplay – Call Me By Your Name
Original Screenplay – Jordan Peele, Get Out vs. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird, vs. Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor for Shape of Water, vs. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards. It’s insane. But Peele, having won the WGA, is probably the favorite here.
Editing: Dunkirk
Production Design: Shape of Water
Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (but…usually goes to a Best Picture nominee so perhaps Dunkirk or Shape)
Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes (no Best Picture nominee in category)
Costumes: Phantom Thread
Sound & Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Score: Shape vs. Dunkirk vs. Phantom Thread
Animated Feature: Coco
Foreign Language: Fantastic Woman
This is the general consensus heading into voting week. We will check back next Friday after ballots close to see if it still feels like this or if we’ve all changed our minds.
Gurus
7 out of 10 for Shape
2 out of 10 for Get Out
1 out of 10 for 3Bs
Gold Derby Odds
1/1 Shape
5/2 3Bs
10/1 Get Out
How close is this race really?
Come on, Shape is the usual-default BP winner prospect since September of last season – a la La La Land. It is the industry’s beloved one as evidenced by its DGA + PGA wins..
And this does not mean it is winning BP under the preferential ballot conditions as evidenced recently with similar movies (Revenant, La La Land).
Times has changed !!
Gurus final predictions:
2016:
11 out of 12 for La La Land
1 out of 12 for Moonlight
How close is this race really?
2015:
9 out of 13 for The Revenant
2 out of 13 for Spotlight
2 out of 13 for The Big Short
How close is this race really?
Yeah… One learns the hard way not to blindly trust the pundits… (I was lucky enough to find out about the stats and how they work long before I even knew what Gold Derby was.)
Gurus
7 out of 10 for Shape
2 out of 10 for Get Out
1 out of 10 for 3Bs
Gold Derby Odds
1/1 Shape
5/2 3Bs
10/1 Get Out
How close is this race really?
Gurus final predictions:
2016:
11 out of 12 for La La Land
1 out of 12 for Moonlight
How close is this race really?
2015:
9 out of 13 for The Revenant
2 out of 13 for Spotlight
2 out of 13 for The Big Short
How close is this race really?
Yeah… One learns the hard way not to blindly trust the pundits… (I was lucky enough to find out about the stats and how they work long before I even knew what Gold Derby was.)
lol who got blocked
I got the shaft :)) !!
What are you guys talking about?…
I am curious to know this as well 🙂
:))
there is that sad trail of “this member is blocked” all over the thread…
I don’t see it. Is it someone you personally blocked?
I’m not seeing this on my screen.
I don’t even know who it might be. The number of possibilities is only two.
Never saw Disqus do this before.
btw, most all the time when you see “comment deleted” it’s straight up blatant spam that’s been removed in honor of Monty Python.
Does it like so. I love it. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0255bd08826e69d6aa7557b67319138e85faec9cedc2b3af4cf0d4ab9d3c44e4.jpg
Completely off-topic but I think that I can get a good range of opinions here: which of these Powell and Pressburger movies would be the top priority to see first:
The Life and Death of Colonel Blimp
Black Narcissus
Tales of Hoffman
Black Narcissus is a personal favourite, along with The Red Shoes.
1.The Red Shoes 2.Black Narcissus 3. The rest of it
Black Narcissus, Red Shoes, Col. Blimp
I have not seen them yet but I am planning to. I am most excited about ‘The Tales of Hoffmann’ then ‘Black Narcissus’ and I had never heard of ‘Colonel Blimp’ until you mentioned it.
I really enjoyed ‘The Red Shoes’ and ‘A Matter of Life and Death’. I assume you have already seen the former since it is an absolute classic and it would most likely be part of or on top of your list if you had not seen it already.
Black Narcissus.
basically all of their films before Tales of Hoffman.
The Red Shoes
Michael Powell’s Peeping Tom and Thief of Bagdad
Black Narcissus
49th Parallel
A Canterbury Tale
A Matter of Life and Death
The Life and Death of Colonel Blimp
I Know Where I’m Going!
other movies
Tales of Hoffman, ha.
The stat that I used in late December to predict Del Toro is clear favourite for BD also points to TSOW winning BP. Three Billboards is not even close.
It’s all about the BOS, isn’t it? If Three Billboards wins Best Original Screenplay then its over and it definitely wins BP. However, if it loses, most likely to “Get Out”, then TSOW is almost certain to win BP. Three Billboards could still win BP with just actors but that seems less likely. “Get Out” is a huge favourite for BOS, so why do some people have Three Billboards as BP favourite? They are hoping Three Billboards wins BAFTA screenplay so it can tie “Get Out” in number of screenplay wins among the big precursors(GG, BFCA, WGA and BAFTA). BFCA-WGA V GG-BAFTA screenplay showdown has never happened before so it’s unclear who is favourite in that scenario. I think it would be stupid to just focus on that rather the individual awards and which ones are more reliable.
Here’s the clincher stat: Since 1996 when “Fargo” won the Oscar, only one film has won Original screenplay without winning either the WGA or BFCA: “Talk to Her”. “Get out” did not just win one of them but won both of them. You need to win one or other. You have to win BFCA if you’re not eligible for WGA. As I have said before, losing BFCA and then claiming WGA ineligibility is not going to wash. You need to proof you’re good enough to win WGA by winning BFCA.
I just found a stat that is even stronger than SAG (knew it was always kinda there, really.). Claudiu, I told you “Get Out” is a huge favourite for BOS.
And Milk and Sling Blade are less comparable to the situation Get Out is in than Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and The Cider House Rules are to Three Billboards’ case
What do you mean?
Milk was in a lineup with no other films that were best picture nominees and thus it lost the single-category Globe and BFCA to award Slumdog Millionaire instead. Instead Get Out would have to be the general screenplay winner as to win Three Billboards and The Shape of Water it would most likely win over Call Me by Your Name as well. And Sling Blade won over a best picture winner but the best picture winner didn’t have a strong screenplay, thus the case would be comparable if it was The Shape of Water vs. Get Out only.
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King is a best picture winner, which Three Billboards might be in the future and won over several more screenplay-driven films (Mystic River and American Splendor) because it was winning best picture along with other awards. The Cider House Rules also won an acting category, was quite acting-driven, wasn’t necessarily re-inventing the wheel (which seems to be the case with Three Billboards) and was a bit of a best picture contender or at least a very clear second-place film that year.
I don’t think GO is a huge favorite for OS at the Oscars… until 3B loses OS at BAFTA.
Your system starts to get holes when we go to adapted, though (I don’t believe in the idea that screenplay categories have their own stats as people vote on them simiarly): that doesn’t explain Up in the Air losing, nor does it get Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King or The Pianist or The Cider House Rules or Gods and Monsters winning.
And here’s another one that has just one exception on the original side until 1993 and one less in general since 1996: a film has to win BAFTA screenplay or get a Globe nomination to win. The exceptions are: Milk, Sling Blade, Gods and Monsters, The Pianist and Precious
Also, to win the Screenplay Oscar (regardless of Original/Adapted), the film needs at least one additional above-the-line nomination. The vast majority of Screenplay winners fit this criteria. Case in Point: GODS AND MONSTERS (2 acting nods), ETERNAL SUNSHINE (Best Actress nod), TALK TO HER (Directing nod), SLING BLADE (Best Actor nod), and more.
I know it’s hard to understand but they are different categories you know. The stats are comparable or even close. I didn’t even bother to look at Adapted because they are different categories. The stats are different for them, but why that is I don’t have a clue. It is staggering stat though, especially the fact “Get Out” has won both WGA and BFCA.
Literally the only WGA and BFCA winner we’ve ever had that didn’t also win either the Globe or BAFTA was Arrival last year, and that one lost the Oscar. You can try to spin it and say it’s not relevant, but then you’re still left with a sample size of zero for Get Out’s situation. Arrival was also snubbed at the Golden Globes, by the way.
TROTK and “The Pianist” are kinda of exception because the former didn’t look like a screenplay winner but was just part of rewarding the a great trilogy, while the latter came out of nowhere to win. The other ones I am not familiar with but they probably had weak competition so something had to give.
Gods and Monsters had no competition but then again Gods and Monsters wasn’t that competition either. The Cider House Rules was the picture runner-up that year and won over The Insider, The Green Mile and The Talented Mr. Ripley. Up in the Air lost perhaps mostly because of the writing dispute. Milk was against no competition (the film lost BAFTA to McDonagh, though) and Sling Blade was a weird case, The English Patient had won some precursors but Sling Blade kind of won perhaps because it was Billy Bob Thornton winning an award (actors voting for actors) or because the film is more dialog-driven
To win Screenplay, a film needs at least one additional above the line nod. SLING BLADE had a lead actor nod (and won WGA, so the Oscar win was not really a surprise).
But over The English Patient which had won BAFTA and BFCA and was nominated for the Globe, which Sling Blade didn’t have. But then again it did beat The English Patient in competition at WGA
BAFTA occurred after the Oscars then, so I don’t think that should count.
So you’ve finally stumbled onto the key that unlocks the mystery of BP winner ?
Best screenplay is the hinge of fate that this race turns upon
3 Bills must have it
SHAPE can win without it
GET OUT seems fated to act as a spoiler allowing SHAPE to win BP by default
SHAPE is very unlikely to win BSP
If GO wins BSP Oscar then SHAPE has surely won BP !
[OK, it doesn’t look like this got posted the first time around, so I’m re-posting it – hopefully it gets through this time. If there’ll be a double, I’ll delete one of them later.]
“”Get Out” is a huge favourite for BOS, so why do some people have Three Billboards as BP favourite?”
Because the first sentence of that is most likely incorrect. In more ways than one. See below for details!
“BFCA-WGA V GG-BAFTA screenplay showdown has never happened before so it’s unclear who is favourite in that scenario.”
Yet Get Out is a huge favorite, you say, in a scenario that’s never happened before… That should already tell you something’s wrong with the whole concept, if you ask me. To put it mildly.
“Here’s the clincher stat: Since 1996 when “Fargo” won the Oscar, only one film has won Original screenplay without winning either the WGA or BFCA: “Talk to Her”. “Get out” did not just win one of them but won both of them. You need to win one or other. You have to win BFCA if you’re not eligible for WGA. As I have said before, losing BFCA and then claiming WGA ineligibility is not going to wash. You need to proof you’re good enough to win WGA by winning BFCA.”
You can, of course, find a pretty much endless list of stats that say Three Billboards is the underdog for screenplay, if you keep pretending its ineligibility for the WGA is the same as a loss. It’s just not, there’s absolutely no evidence for that, or any reason to treat it that way, and that, of course, changes EVERYTHING. So, please stop doing that – pretending it’s the same! I’ve told you repeatedly I can’t take any such stats seriously, and I’m pretty sure most of the people that have given this any thought whatsoever would agree with me.
I’m ready and very interested to hear about any and all stats that say Get Out is a favorite for screenplay, huge or otherwise, that don’t include the WGA in any way, because, no matter how you spin it, including it taints the analysis and renders it completely worthless, at least from a logical perspective, when it comes to this year’s race. It still has value as a curiosity, or as a springboard for something that’s actually relevant, or it could have value in years to come, obviously, when none of the screenplay favorites is ineligible for the WGA. But not this year.
“You have to win BFCA if you’re not eligible for WGA.”
So, obviously, this is the only part of your stat that’s actually relevant in any way to this year’s situation. However, I assume you’re not going to tell me movies that did not win the Globe, like Three Billboards did, and were ineligible for the WGA, are as relevant to the situation as movies that won the Globe… Or at all relevant. So, let’s see, how many Golden Globe winners for screenplay were ineligible for the WGA in the BFCA era: Birdman – won the Critics Choice, won the Oscar; Django Unchained – won the Critics Choice, won the Oscar. And that’s it! Your stat has a sample size of two, and is one different result away from 50%… Random variance? Quite possibly. Also possibly relevant, though not mathematically, in any way, or even logically, if you ask me, and most certainly nowhere near enough to make any movie a big favorite over the other, in any event.
So, let me do what I suggested you do, above, and remove the WGA from the equation, to see how Golden Globe winners do, compared to Critics Choice winners, at the Oscars, when those two awards go to different movies, and both of those winners are then nominated at the Oscars in the same category, like Get Out and Three Billboards are! The score is a “whopping” 2-1 in favor of the Critics Choice winner. Yet again, such overwhelming statistical evidence!… 🙂 Globe-winner Lost in Translation beat BFCA-winner In America, BFCA-winner Little Miss Sunshine beat Globe-winner The Queen, and BFCA-co-winner Manchester by the Sea beat Globe-winner La La Land. (Which, however, was also the Critics Choice co-winner, and that isn’t really the same situation at all, as La La Land also won the BFCA and still lost, so counting that as a “win” for the BFCA is at least suspect, since it didn’t even actually give us any indication of what would win that year, by tying between the only two movies that could… But, OK, let’s call it 2-1, for the sake of simplicity!) Of course, crucially, both Little Miss Sunshine and Manchester by the Sea first won BAFTA, before winning the Oscar. In America didn’t. Coincidence? I think not…
So, we’re back to what I’ve been saying all along: if Get Out wins BAFTA, it’s probably a pretty significant favorite. Nobody’s been disputing that, anyway. (I might, later, if it comes to that, and I find stats that say otherwise, but I’m definitely not doing so right now, nor have I ever, up to this point.) If Three Billboards wins BAFTA, then, well, we just don’t know what’s favorite, for the most part, but we can certainly say there’s absolutely no evidence either it or Get Out are any kind of a big favorite for screenplay, other than – I’m forced to repeat myself -, of course, the stat that says the last 14 screenplay winners (last 7 years – and 15/16 in the preferential era) were all at least nominated for screenplay at the Golden Globes, unlike Get Out. Which is the reason I make Three Billboards a favorite in that scenario. You don’t have to agree with me – but the numbers do.
Also, again, since we’re, apparently, comparing stat sizes, for some reason :), literally NOTHING is stronger than the one that says “no movie has won BP after losing the WGA and having one other major industry snub”, which has a sample size of at least 60, probably higher. You’re not going to find a stronger stat than that. That’s a truly prohibitive stat (and even that can be broken, of course), not like yours, which is, in reality, as far as this year is concerned, based on just a couple of precedents – that happened to lead to the same result… And my stat says The Shape of Water can’t win Best Picture, while Three Billboards can. What say you to that, sir? 🙂 Will you again bring up that “stat” about PGA+DGA winners losing only to WGA winners, which is based on, again, a handful of precedents, and once more completely ignores the WGA eligibility issue? And, by the way, now that I think about it, it’s also technically incorrect, because Gravity won the PGA and DGA and lost to a movie that didn’t win the WGA, 12 Years a Slave. (Sure, that year’s situation is slightly different, but, since you obviously don’t care that losing the WGA and not being eligible for it are two different things, allow me to also not care about how that situation is different from the rest!…)
“I just found a stat that is even stronger than SAG”
Also, needless to say, a stat that’s on 2/2 is in no way stronger than a stat that’s on 21/22… Or even a stat to begin with.
Not sure BAFTA does the male winner last year presenting female acting awards and vice versa, but Dev Patel handing the BAFTA to Lesley Manville would just about make me spontaneously combust.
Manville is unlikely to win
I was so happy that Dev Patel won Supporting Actor for ”Lion” last year.
Same here. I so wanted him to win the Oscar. I felt he deserved it more. AACTA gave him two awards. The International arm of the academy and the local part of the Academy gave him Supporting Actor for Lion. I proudly voted for him!
I wanted Patel to win the Oscar, too. Hey, he’s making progress. Back in 2009, this ”Slumdog Millionaire” star was nominated by BAFTA, BFCA and SAG, and he was part of its SAG-winning Ensemble and received a Breakthrough Award from the National Board of Review. But the Academy failed to nominate Patel, or any other actors in ”Slumdog.”
I hope he’s getting the leading-man roles he deserves. I look forward to his ”Hotel Mumbai” with Armie Hammer, and he was just announced for Arrmando Iannucci’s modern retelling of Dickens’ ”David Copperfield.”
Have you seen ‘The Man Who Knew Infinity’ with Jeremy Irons – another great Dev performance. Lion really gave him the space and scope to show what a talented performer he is and get away from the typecast roles. Yes I too hope he is afforded Leading Man status.
I only know of the title from reading Dev’s resume; I’m assuming it came and went. I read that it’s about a pioneering Indian mathematician, but the title – ”The Man Who Knew Infinity” – makes it sound like a sci-fi movie. Now that he’s an Oscar nominee, I hope he never has to make any followup to ”Chappie” or more sequels to ”The Exotic Marigold Hotel.” 😉
Yes to that – no more sequels. Infinity was a fairly standard flick but Dev shone playing up against Jeremy Irons – no mean feat! An impresario mathematician who manages to make his way out of the slums of India and into academia in Britain. It’s quite emotional too. The maths bored me as it did in Theory of Everything – but the relationships in both movies more fascinating. There is a humanity that Dev covneys and empathy engendered for an audience.
Speaking of ”Lion,” I wish the Academy still gave out special Juvenile Oscars for kid performances. That Sunny Pawar was cute and charming.
Again Agreed! Like the Rising Star BAFTA award; AMPAS could resurrect the Golden Globe award – New Talent award’ although no Pia Zadora please. You may be too young Wayman (apologies if you aren’t) tor remember that debacle. I’d have to go and do some homework to check when the HFPA eradiated that award – might have been 82? 83? Yes a ‘Best Young Actor/Actress award would also potentially bring a younger audience to the Oscar show.
Lion won 2 AACTA awards in 2016 and 12/12 last year, making it the most awarded film- 14 awards- ever. It also climbed to #3 Australian film ever at the box office.
Dev deserved the Oscar but was up against a hit favourite in the BP winner.
The newly (7 years) reconstituted AACTA has never quite sat comfortably with me – as a 30 year AFI member – the bizarre International Awards that are announced in January; then the local ones in December 11 months later is weird; as it is unclear who is voting for the International ones and how! As much as I loved Lion it is strange that it won those 2 awards in 2016 then repeated 2 of them again in 2017 – in the local section! I’ve asked questions – but curiously no answers come back. All about Geoffrey Rush and Cate Blanchett. Or I’m just jealous that even tho i’m an AACTA member, I don’t get screeners of the international films in December/January as several members must to nominate and then hand out those prizes in LA in January. Ok, whinge over!
How can Nicole Kidman and Dev Patel win the same prize twice from the same Academy? Daft, I reckon. Ok; now rant over!
I know, it was silly that Lion was in the international section in 2016 and local in 2017..
For Lion fans, Garth Davis’s new film Mary Magdalene coming soon for Easter, just booked a preview on 8 Feb in Melbourne. Can’t wait.
Had the pleasure of meeting Mr Davis at MIFF, he was so lovely.
I know we shouldn’t see everything thru the prism of awards (but we do), but a March release is terrible for awards consideration. Films like Get Out have had staying power but that is the exemption rather than the rule. The performances of Mara & Phoenix look to be amazing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x18fgYITXwc
Wow, 12/12 at AACTA. Were there any notable Australian films of note in competition? I doubt an Oscar sweep like that will ever happen again.
I thought it was another crap year locally for our films. The past several years the sweep has gone to a big – often overseas themed.located; although shot wholly or partly here in Australia. The Great Gatsby (12) Mad Max (7 awards) Hacksaw Ridge (9 awards) and then Lion. (12). Last year there were several horror films;(Hounds of Love, Berlin Syndrome, Killing Ground) the requisite rite of passage (Jasper Jones, Red Dog; True Blue) a flawed but curious tale about a guy whose life is in reverse; and for me the only film that was at all a contender was ‘Don’t Tell’ based on a true story of a young woman who takes on the church over sexual abuse.
Pia Zadora’s win at the Globes (1982) for New Star of the Year was a little before my time, in following film awards. And for the record, the Broadcast Film Critics DO give out a prize for Best Young Actor/Actress.
As you might know, the Academy gave out a special Juvenile Award, intermittently from 1935 to 1961 at their discretion. There were about a dozen recipients (under the age of 18), and they included: Shirley Temple, Deanna Durbin, Mickey Rooney, Judy Garland, Margaret O’Brien and Hayley Mills. They oughta bring it back. The Academy (read: older white men) are pretty good at nominating girls, like Quvenzhane Wallis and Keisha Castle-Hughes for Best Actress, and Tatum O’Neal, Anna Paquin and Patty Duke have all won for Supporting Actress. But the Academy rarely ever nominates boys. The last one was Haley Joel Osment in 1999 (for ”The Sixth Sense”). And Academy voters passed over Jamie Bell, Freddie Highmore, Jacob Tremblay, etc. No boy has ever won an Oscar.
The Australian Film Institute now AACTA gave Sunny the Best Lead Actor award in the local awards in December. They played a pre-recorded acceptance speech from him. It was so sweet.
Wow, that’s amazing that AACTA could nominate AND reward a boy for Best Actor. (The BAFTAs did that with Jamie Bell in ”Billy Elliot,” too.) But the Academy hasn’t nominated a boy for Best Actor since Jackie Cooper (”Skippy”) in 1931, let alone given him the Academy Award.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WnO7iZyqPA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IQGs-Z5oTs
Yes best moment of BAFTA, along with the screenplay win
lol who got blocked
What are you guys talking about?…
there is that sad trail of “this member is blocked” all over the thread…
I don’t see it. Is it someone you personally blocked?
I’m not seeing this on my screen.
I don’t even know who it might be. The number of possibilities is only two.
Never saw Disqus do this before.
btw, most all the time when you see “comment deleted” it’s straight up blatant spam that’s been removed in honor of Monty Python.
Does it like so. I love it. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0255bd08826e69d6aa7557b67319138e85faec9cedc2b3af4cf0d4ab9d3c44e4.jpg
I like Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 since I taught art and art therapy with schizophrenics.
The race for Best Original Song is definitely between Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Bobby Lopez’s ”Remember Me” (”Coco”) and Benj Pasek and Justin Paul’s ”This Is Me” (”The Greatest Showman”). If Pasek & Paul win, it’ll be the first time someone’s won consecutive Oscars for Best Song; it last happened in 1991-92 with composer Alan Menken (”Beauty and the Beast” and ”Aladdin”). However, he had different lyricists: Howard Ashman on ”Beauty and the Beast” and Tim Rice on ”A Whole New World.” … To find a composer AND lyricist who won consecutive Best Song Oscars, you have to go back to the only time it ever happened, 55 years ago: for Henry Mancini and Johnny Mercer for ”Moon River” from ”Breakfast at Tiffany’s” (1961) and ”The Days of Wine and Roses” from ”The Days of Wine and Roses” (1962).
I imagine some folks are predicting ”Mighty River” from ”Mudbound” because Mary J. Blige is up for Supporting Actress and co-writing its Best Song. Since Blige won’t win Supporting, the reasoning goes, the best way to reward her and acknowledge ”Mudbound” is to give it the Best Song Oscar. But I can’t think of any precedents for that. For instance, it’s hard to imagine an awards-giving group that likes to star-f*ck as much as the Golden Globes. They’ve given Best Song to Jon Bon Jovi, Sting, Bono, Mick Jagger, Prince and Madonna for tunes that didn’t go on to win the Oscar (and sometimes weren’t even nominated). This year, the Globes could’ve awarded Nick Jonas, Mariah Carey OR Blige, but even they went with ”This Is Me.”
FYI, the Academy didn’t shortlist ”Never Enough” ‘cuz ”The Greatest Showman” didn’t submit it. I imagine that Pasek & Paul didn’t want to risk splitting votes by offering two songs, like they did with ”La La Land”: ”City of Stars” & ”Audition.” So they put all their chips on ”This Is Me.”
Interesting.
But how would it be consecutive wins if the Remember Me wins? They won in 2013 for Frozen.
I imagine he means consecutive times the songwriters were nominated, not necessarily during consecutive years?
Not sure. The examples he gives are both consecutive years. And Ashman and Mencken won also in 1989 for The Little Mermaid, which is not mentioned.
And the mystery is solved. 😉
MrScreenAddict, are you and I the only ones rooting for Sufjan Stevens to win for ”The Mystery of Love”? Ha-ha-ha! … (What are you predicting?)
I’ll announce myself as a Mystery of Love fan as well (especially since it’s also a way to award Visions of Gideon which is my favorite movie song of the year)
I would be thrilled if Mystery Of Love won because you know my passion for CMBYN, but I’m also kind of rooting for This Is Me at the same time. (I saw The Greatest Showman three times in theaters.) I’m also predicting the latter.
This Is Me is already ubiquitous, I’ve heard it play on the radio and in stores and in a thousand YouTube covers and even during commercials for the Olympics. It’s conceivable that someone who hasn’t even seen The Greatest Showman yet is familiar with the song regardless. As someone who hasn’t gotten around to seeing Coco yet, I can tell you I haven’t heard that song one single time. I have no idea what it even sounds like. “Remember Me” is no “Let It Go.” I think that’ll hurt its chances.
Carlos Rivera does a great job with the Spanish ”Remember Me.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfzmjgpx-VE
I’m definitely planning on seeing Coco before the Oscars, and I sorta want to wait to hear the song for the first time during the movie. But I’ll remember this version and come back to it later!
If others can hear ”This Is Me” before they see ”The Greatest Showman,” surely you can hear ”Remember Me” before you see ”Coco.” 😉
I think the right question around here is “who ISN’T” rooting for that song, or the movie it’s featured in?! 🙂 (I’m not. But both are fine, I’m certainly not rooting against them, either.)
I didn’t mention that because it wasn’t consecutive. And it’s MENKEN. 😉
Menken won 8 Oscars (all in 2’s, one for Original Score and the other for Original Song). The first 2 for THE LITTLE MERMAID in 1989, followed by 2 more for BEAUTY AND THE BEAST in 1991, then 2 more for ALADDIN in 1992, and 2 more for POCAHONTAS in 1995.
It is worth noting that Menken is one of only 2 people EVER to win multiple Oscar PER YEAR in consecutive years (the only other person to do this is Joseph L Mankiewicz, who won Adapted Screenplay AND Directing EACH for A LETTER TO THREE WIVES (1949) and ALL ABOUT EVE (1950)). Inarritu would’ve been the 3rd ever person to do this had THE REVENANT (2015) won Best Picture.
You’re right. I blew it. Only Pasek & Paul can be consecutive winners. I meant to say that both the Lopezes and Pasek & Paul were previous winners. I’ll re-edit it.
Also, it is worth noting that Pasek and Paul are only an Emmy win shy of completing the EGOT.
Yup, I thought they might get a shot for ”Running Home to You,” which they wrote for that musical episode of ”The Flash,” but it didn’t even get nominated. Maybe they’ll get nominated for one of their new songs for ”A Christmas Story Live” on Fox, even though it bombed in the ratings.
“Remember Me” will definitely win. “Coco” is a loved film and will easily win. The Academy has a tradition of awarding this award to Disney animated films. Plus the Academy just loves Disney. Add Pixar into the mix and it’s game, set and match. Always bet on Disney unless it’s a Marvel or franchise movie.
“The Academy has a tradition of awarding this award to Disney animated films.”
A Disney movie (Moana) literally just lost to a Pasek/Paul song last year.
The Princess And The Frog, WALL-E, Enchanted, Cars, The Emperor’s New Groove, and Hercules are all also recent examples of Disney songs losing to songs from non-Disney movies. It doesn’t happen infrequently.
They get so many nominations that they are unlikely to win. it’s not just Disney, but the quality of the song and its competition. When the film is as strong as “Coco” and the song is as popular or memorable as this, it cannot lose. It already won many awards and it’s unlikely to lose. If it does lose, then I will put up my hand. I wasn’t talking about just songs, by the way. There is a clear Disney bias at the Academy.
“When … the song is as popular or memorable as this”
Is it, though? Like I wrote below, as someone who hasn’t gotten around to seeing Coco yet, I have ZERO idea what “Remember Me” even vaguely sounds like. I haven’t heard it one single time, it doesn’t seem to be played anywhere out of context like “This Is Me” — which is being broadcast during commercials for the Olympics in the United States — which is helping that song reach a level of cultural ubiquity unrivaled by its fellow nominees. I bet you voters who haven’t even seen The Greatest Showman yet will vote for “This Is Me” just because they’ve heard it so many times.
It has won most critics award and the biggest and most reliable award, the BFCA. It is winning so let’s not waste time on it.
Okay John.
You’re wrong I suspect; I haven’t seen either movie but have watched both songs on youtube …This is me is the obvious winner
Well, I was so certain that Academy weren’t going to choose something as hair tearing bad as “Writing’s on the Wall” yet they did. It’s not about personal opinion. They will go for the most popular song or a song from popular film , which is clearly “Coco”. They also love Disney/Pixar. You can pick your choice, but “Remember Me” will win.
Remember your comment in 2 weeks and then try not to laugh
But the scenes with Remember Me are much more emotional in the film. If they watch Coco, the film’s whole emotional climax has to do with the main character singing the song to his great grandmother so that she wouldn’t forget her father so in terms of emotional voting, Coco might do better than an extremely general “I’m embracing my weirdness” point that This Is Me focuses on
Could BAFTA give us a clue? That’s if both are nominated? The only way I can see “Remember Me” losing is if BAFTA goes for “This Is Me”.
Sadly BAFTA doesn’t have a song category
Some years, it isn’t that sad, especially if the crop of songs is dismal. 😉
Especially if you compare them to the riches of past winners/nominees.
What do they have then? best use of music in a film?
They only have a score but neither are nominated there
They have a single category called “Best Film Music”. I guess that would include soundtracks, but I don’t really remember any movies nominated for their soundtracks there, instead of an original score.
Yeah – I hate the movie overall, and don’t like the song either, on its own, but I absolutely loved that scene, it was really moving. There, the song worked fantastically.
The song itself is pretty mediocre, in my opinion, but it’s used fantastically well in the movie. I hated 95% of that movie (I’m not exaggerating – it was super-annoying in its obviousness), but I still cried at the scene at the end the song is featured in (you’ll know when you get to it – the song is featured before, too, but less/less effectively), and that scene was the only thing about the movie that worked for me. So, yeah, I’d be surprised if it got the vote from people who didn’t see the movie (which, given that it’s the big favorite to win the category, really shouldn’t be that many), but I would not be surprised if it got A LOT of the votes from the ones that did.
You cannot just look at the Disney, but they strength of the films and songs too. If they are any way close to winning, they almost always win. LLL was a clear favourite and I am sure none of the other were favourite or close to it. You might find or exceptions, but the patter remains the same. If it’s a strong and especially from a strong film, it will win.
Lady Gaga was a pretty clear presumed frontrunner, and she lost.
Exactly what I was just writing.
Was she in animated Disney film?
Since when was Lady Gaga the ”presumed frontrunner”? Her song lost at Broadcast Film Critics (to ”See You Again” from ”Furious 7,” which should’ve been NOMINATED and WON as the Oscars). And she lost to Smith at the Globes. Besides, Smith’s song was in a huge James Bond hit, Spectre ($200 million). Gaga’s song was in ”The Hunting Ground,” a documentary about college rape that only grossed $400,000.
Some people just presumed she was the favourite because it was the best of the nominees. They don’t see to understand how the Oscars work.
Poor Diane Warren. She co-wrote that ”Hunting Ground” song with Lady Gaga and probably hoped she finally broke her Oscar-losing streak of 8. If she loses for her ”Marshall” song with Common, she’s up to loser No. 9.
Still ain’t got nothin’ on Deakins!
Sorry, but Deakins has nothing on sound mixer Kevin O’Connell, who finally won on his 21st Oscar nomination for ”Hacksaw Ridge.” … And then there’s fellow sound mixer Greg P. Russell, winless after 17 nominations. And to add injury to insult, he had his 17th nomination (”13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi”) rescinded by the Academy. Why? Because he broke a rule by lobbying his colleagues by phone.
Don’t forget Thomas Newman, who’s 0-for-14 so far.
There’s also Victor Young, who holds the record for most losses before first win. He won his only Oscar on his 22nd nomination. On top of that, that win was posthumous.
How sad that Young didn’t live long enough to get that Oscar for ”Around the World in 80 Days.” … And how prolific he was: For 1940, he had 3 nominees for Original Score, losing to ”Pinocchio” (granted, there were 18 nominees that year), plus one more for scoring. And yet he went 0 for 4.
She looks almost certain to lose to “Coco”.
Exactly. 🙂
She most definitely was considered the front runner. That was a shock upset. She even performed it at the PGA at their request.
How was Gaga a front-runner after already losing at the Globes & BFCA?
(I can’t make out your 3rd sentence at all. Are you missing some words?)
The pundits thought it was the favorite, but the stats said the opposite. Writing’s on the Wall was the stats favorite, and that’s why I predicted it.
Exactly. She was a pundits thing.
“If it’s a strong and especially from a strong film, it will win.”
Yeah, I don’t think that’s true at all. I think cultural ubiquity is the deciding factor in the Original Song category, not quality. That’s the exact reason why the horrible Writing’s On The Wall beat the terrific Til It Happens To You just a few years ago.
I mean Disney winners, not all winners. Oh, man!
About that Writings’ on the Wall win, Spectre was probably helped more by the voters at the very least knowing the movie and could imagine where the song was used in the movie. Neither Coco or The Greatest Showman has any advantage with that this year
Yes, but the former is much strong. The latter film need to do much better. It’s up against a beloved Disney/Pixar film and a song that is quite popular. I don’t fancy any of other nominee’s chances.
But what could This Is Me have done better besides winning the BFCA, which feels somewhat minor?
Not just the song. The film is not that strong compared to “Coco”.
Again, look at Spectre for why this absolutely doesn’t matter.
Yes, but it wasn’t up against a film like “Coco”.
It’s possible to win the Oscar without winning the BFCA or the Globe.
In 2011, Randy Newman’s ”We Belong Together” from ”Toy Story 3” won the Oscar, even though it wasn’t a Globe nominee and lost at BFCA. And in 2012, Best Song went to Bret McKenzie’s ”Man or Muppet” from ”The Muppets,” even though it wasn’t a Globe nominee and had lost at BFCA … to another song from ”The Muppets”: ”Life’s a Happy Song.”
Gee, was 2012 that sucky for movie songs? The Academy nominated only two: ”Man or Muppet” (which is inferior to ”Life’s a Happy Song”) and ”Real in Rio” from ”Rio” (which is still better than ”Man or Muppet”). The Academy didn’t nominate Elton John’s ”Hello Hello” from ”Gnomeo and Juliet” or Mary J. Blige’s ”The Living Proof” from ”The Help” – both of which WERE Golden Globe AND BFCA nominees. They should’ve Oscar-nominated Blige for THAT song; it could’ve beat ”Man or Muppet.”
“The latter film need to do much better.”
It’s done quite well for itself, actually. It may not have had a gonzo opening weekend, but it has had remarkable staying power. I read that it actually has the best holding power at the box office (in terms of not dropping off week to week) since Titanic — although clearly never at the same high level. I would wager far more voters have seen The Greatest Showman since they nominated its song, whereas most of those who are going to see Coco have probably already seen it.
I mean in terms of nominations. Musical usually win this award when they are nominated for lots of awards at the Academy like Les Mis .
…Les Mis didn’t win Best Song, though. It lost to Skyfall, a song that reached a massive level of cultural ubiquity. Like This Is Me.
It was just a random example. My bad! But they usually win when they get nominated. Les Mis was strong but so was “Skfall” and Adelle won everything so it was not really a surprise win.
The thing about “Skyfall” and “City of Stars” and others is that those, unlike “This Is Me”, also won the Critics Choice, in addition to the Globe. Which makes a huge difference.
Greatest Showman is a movie for adults
No, it isn’t. It’s a cartoon montage with glorious music. I really liked it, but substantive adult moviemaking it is not.
compared to COCO?
If Academy members are voting on Animated Film (and one assumes they saw ”Coco”), you can’t miss ”Remember Me.” It’s reprised throughout. … The disadvantage that ”This Is Me” might have is that fewer voters have seen ”The Greatest Showman,” since it isn’t nominated for anything else.
Exactly! If you’ve loved that film then you probably loved the song because the song is at the heart of the film.
”This is me” fits the zeitgeist perfectly in relation to Gay rights
I bet it wins
For a group that named a gay movie for Best Picture only last year; largely snubbed ”Carol,” and skunked ”Brokeback” for Best Pic, when it won PGA DGA & WGA, etc., I wouldn’t count on it as a stronghold for gay rights. 😉
Moonlight wasn’t a “gay movie.” That’s reductive and unfair to a movie about identity, poverty, family, fathers and love.
Every film is about many things. For the sake of shorthand, ”Moonlight” was about being gay and black as a young man. That doesn’t deny that it can have universal appeal, but it’s what made it stand out from the crowd.
Hmmm for a fellow predicting Dunkirk for BP , I wouldn’t count on your opinion
Hmmm … I could care less what you think of my opinion, but when did I ever predict ”Dunkirk” to win Best Picture?
We agree here. (Except about the “definitely” part.)
Just throwing something out there: every original song Oscar winner since The Weary Kind has won at least one critics’ award for original song. This Is Me hasn’t at least in my quick search won one yet
I’m guessing you’re not counting the Golden Globes, which includes reviewers, as a critics’ award? … Anyway, ”Remember Me” has won Best Song from the critics’ groups in Denver, Houston, Iowa and Phoenix. Not every critics’ group votes on a Best Original Song, so I don’t know how reliable that statistic would be.
In my research, I found the Yoga Awards, apparently a Spanish equivalent of the Razzies. And their pick for Worst Foreign Film was ”The Greatest Showman” (!).
I meant regional critics’ awards, thus I didn’t even count BFCA.
I always hate these “Worst of the Year” awards. They’re either obvious and thus pointless or they attack solid movies and thus they just don’t choose the correct winners. The worst was The Stinkers Bad Movie Awards which gave out some truly disgusting nominations, especially in their stupidly named “Worst Sense of Direction (Stop them before they direct again!)” category which nominated Brian De Palma (x2), David Lynch (x2), Oliver Stone and Spike Lee. Maybe some of those films that they nominated for weren’t that great (although Inland Empire and Lost Highway are incredible and deserved to get best director nominations for Lynch instead of worst director nominations) but you can’t say that these masters shouldn’t direct more movies
And the award for worst award show goes too….
So I’m predicting the right thing, then. 🙂 Cool!
I was wondering if they did that. It’s a shame because “This is Me” isn’t the best song off the soundtrack. My favorite is “Rewrite the Stars” but “Never Enough” is probably the most Oscar-y.
I’m a HUGE fan of Pasek and Paul’s work on ”La La Land,” and was so happy they won the Oscar, but their lyrics to ”Never Enough” are insipidly repetitious:
”These hands could hold the world but it’ll
Never be enough
Never be enough
For me
Never, never
Never, never
Never, for me
For me
Never enough
Never enough
Never enough
For me
For me
For me …”
And it pretty much repeats all of this for a second chorus (!).
It’s not the lyrics it’s the melody and soaring vocal. It’s a beautiful song.
It’s hard to listen that song without hearing those repetitious lyrics.
I agree. And it does get slightly annoying, even for one such as myself, who loves it. But I’m with Bobby Peru below. 🙂 The quality and beauty of everything else about it compensates for that, and makes listening to it over and over (if you like it in the first place, of course) more than worth it.
“FYI, the Academy didn’t shortlist ”Never Enough” ‘cuz ”The Greatest Showman” didn’t submit it.”
Yeah, I’d assumed that was it. Thanks for the confirmation! (It’s my favorite, but I doubt it would have had any chance of winning. That’s not the kind of song they like to award.)
OT: Where are we talking about BLACK PANTHER? I know everyone here is going to see it this weekend because only the total and complete racists are waiting until next weekend.
I swear I’m not racist, but my husband is out of town this weekend and I’m not allowed to see it without him! Rest assured I’m dying inside every day that goes by and I haven’t seen it… :'(
You mean he’s so racist that he went out of town? Grounds for divorce.
Hahaha I’ve already filed the papers. 😉
My husband will see this on his own, cuz i won’t go.
So I am definitely a racist, yet i don’t even have the courage to die inside every day.
Yes, can we PLEASE have a Black Panther commentary section?
I am not a fanboy so Monday or Friday work for me.
*schedules Patrick for Monday*
I’ve got no interest whatsoever. I’ve seen enough Marvel movies to last a lifetime. It used to be special to see a superhero film. Now they grind them out every other month or so.
Boycotting because there are Asians in it? I knew it! You’ve been faking all this time.
Yes, I’m secretly waiting for the Asian spinoff: ”Yellow Leopard”! 😉
I was watching the Oscar nominated shorts. Very worthwhile and high quality.
I’m tempted to catch the Oscar-nominated animated shorts … if only to see what beat out ”In a Heartbeat.” I’m bummed it’s not nominated. This cute film about two boys with a same-sex crush went viral and has 34 million views on YouTube.
Garden Party is fine but Dear Basketball and LOU aren’t really anything notable in my opinion. Them getting nominated over In a Heartbeat and Fox and the Whale is really baffling and annoying to me
Dear Basketball, Lou, and Revolting Rhymes all vary between “mediocre” and “hot garbage.” Negative Space and Garden Party are the only two deserving nominees, In A Heartbeat should absolutely have been included.
Star power must be behind ”Dear Basketball.” It’s based on a poem that Kobe Bryant wrote, and he narrates it, with music by John Williams.
Garden Party is amazing!
HAHAHA
I was thinking the same thing. Where’s the Black Panther chatter. It’s getting ridiculous reviews. I assume it’s too early to make assumptions for the Oscars just yet
I definitely won’t see it, but please stop with the pointless sarcasm.
Why? I thought her post was funny.
No. 😛
It’s probably the most intrigued (not to say excited) I have been for a superhero movie in a long while but I don’t know yet when I’ll be seeing it.
It’s pretty good! Michael B. Jordan is A+
I heard a decent argument for why Dunkirk could win on Vanity Fair’s latest Oscar podcast. The logic is sound, but I’m not sure I’m brave enough to predict it.
Basically, the argument is that voting will be so diffuse in the first round, with no single film likely to get much more than 20-25% of the vote, that it will take more rounds than usual to get one film over 50% — and so the question becomes not what movie is #2 on the most ballots, but what movie shows up in the middle the most, what movie is #4-5 on the most ballots? And when you think about it, Dunkirk really could be that movie. If you’re the old guard “steak eater” Academy member who ranks traditional fare like Darkest Hour or The Post first, Dunkirk probably wouldn’t be far behind. And if you’re a newer “hip” Academy member who ranks indie fare like Lady Bird or Get Out first, you’re still likely to rank Dunkirk higher than movies like Darkest Hour and The Post. Nolan is a filmmaker who is beloved by younger moviegoers, but who’s also made a movie in a genre that is beloved by older moviegoers. Basically, Dunkirk is the intersection of the two kinds of Academy members, and depending on how many rounds voting takes, it could be the movie that consensus ends up coalescing around. (It also doesn’t hurt that it’s also the highest-grossing of the BP nominees, meaning it’s probably been seen by the most voters and will therefore show up on the most ballots.)
Like I said, a decent theory, but still not sure I’m bold enough to make it my official prediction. It will feel especially weird to see Dunkirk win BP if Nolan loses Director.
What do you guys think?
I totally agree this is possible. Dunkirk is indeed a film that may appeal to traditionalists — for its subject-matter — and new Academy members — for the cache of Nolan.
I don’t know if Dunkirk itself IS the film that might do that, but i think it is very possible that the film that is in the middle rank (don’t hate, don’t love) will win. Of course, we’ll never know for sure.
I’m torn as to whether the preferential ballot, awarding the “mediocre middle”, is a good thing.
It may be in the middle for most, but, to win, it has to also be at the very top for many.
In any system, it’s 99 % likely that the winner is in top two. You need to have enough #1 votes just to survive and continue to still be in the race. And then you need second, third and so forth. That’s why it’s unlikely that a film outside top two can win BP.
Right, I understand that’s how it normally works. But the point is, support this year is so diffuse across the nominees that it might actually give a third- or fourth-ranked film the chance to rise to the top if the movies that are eliminated first get added to its count faster than the films in #1 or #2.
If your #1 pick is a movie that stays in the race until the final round, then it literally doesn’t matter how you rank the other eight nominees. The question we have to ask ourselves is, which movies will be eliminated first, and which movie is likely to be next on their ballots?
The same guy who explained his Dunkirk theory also correctly predicted Moonlight based on this idea. He realized that Fences and Hidden Figures would likely be two of the first films eliminated last year, and that the vast majority of their support would go to Moonlight over La La Land. Similarly, this year, Darkest Hour and The Post are extremely likely to be the first two films eliminated — and I would wager a bet that the vast majority of those ballots would go to support Dunkirk next.
Unless there is a clear strategy in play, it’s very unlikely for a film outside top two to win. One of the top two film will still be popular enough to defeat any other film outside the top two.
Yes. This. (Although 99% seems high. 90%, at least, though.)
I try to never think of the preferential system as whether a film has #3 or #4 votes but as a simple race between the favorites. Once we get to the top 5 this year, which will be named best by the least amount of people? I’d have to say that Dunkirk might drop there. At the very least by the time we get to the top 4 and it would be Three Billboards against Dunkirk against The Shape of Water against Get Out, I have little doubt that Dunkirk would have the least amount of number one votes for the simple reason that it hasn’t really done anything notable in the season so far. Thus having #2s, #3s, #4s or #5s doesn’t matter. Or to put it in a different way: in which cases of these would you think that over 50% of the Academy thinks that Dunkirk is better than:
1) Get Out, Three Billboards and The Shape of Water
2) Get Out and Three Billboards
3) Get Out and The Shape of Water
4) Three Billboards and The Shape of Water
5) Get Out
6) Three Billboards
7) The Shape of Water
youre overthinking again
That is literally how preferential balloting works. A film doesn’t get extra points for having #2 or #3 votes, what matters is what is their favorite of the films still left on the ballot. The winner is the film that more than half of the voters think is the best film of the ballot and I don’t think that Dunkirk would be named better than any of the top 3 or especially any combination of them by more than 50% of the voters
Yes it works in theory but does it work in practice ?
If it’s the structure of the ballot, it can’t not work. I use this thinking because it’s a whole lot less vague than “what film is generally liked and not hated” or “what film has #2s and #3s” and is an actually exact depiction of what is going on on the ballot. Unless you think that one of The Post, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread and Call Me by Your Name leapfrogs one or more of Lady Bird, Dunkirk and Get Out, we get to the presumed top 5. And at that point it doesn’t matter whether some voters had these other films as their favorites. Instead they are asked: what is your favorite of the five. And that is the only thing that matters
For example a year ago Moonlight’s win didn’t happen because it had #2s and #3s but because it had enough #1 votes to get through the beginning and more than half of the Oscar voters voted it as better than La La Land.
you’re a mixed up kid
Again, the best picture winner needs to reach 50% so those two elements of Moonlight’s win are stone-cold facts instead of me being mixed up and my age has nothing to do with it. The film didn’t drop in the first rounds, proved by its victory, and it achieved the 50%, again proved by its victory, and if it went to the last round, that means that it got to that 50% exactly against La La Land, meaning that at least 50%+1 of the voters ranked Moonlight higher than La La Land. If it won in earlier rounds that means that it got that 50% against for example La La Land and Manchester by the Sea, which once again means that over 50% of the voters preferred Moonlight over La La Land. Let’s have some theoretical numbers of what last year’s round 7 if Moonlight had won then:
Moonlight: 52%
La La Land: 34%
Manchester by the Sea: 14%
So at that point even if all of Manchester’s votes went to La La Land, the sinner would still be 50%. So there is no way that over half of the Academy voted La La Land higher up than Moonlight because otherwise the best picture winner would be a different film.
“Basically, the argument is that voting will be so diffuse in the first round, with no single film likely to get much more than 20-25% of the vote, that it will take more rounds than usual to get one film over 50% — and so the question becomes not what movie is #2 on the most ballots, but what movie shows up in the middle the most, what movie is #4-5 on the most ballots?”
My simulations have ALWAYS gotten to the last round of voting. Down to the last two movies. I believe Awards Daily’s simulations have also always, or almost always, gotten to the last two as well. So, I think this is, in fact, always the case, not just this year. I think for movies that aren’t divisive, it might matter more how many #2-#4 votes they get, whereas for movies that are (like we have Shape and Billboards this year) it might matter how many of those #5-#7 votes the movie gets, instead of being placed 8th or dead last, on the ballots of the people who hate it. #1 votes matter for every movie. Unless the movie is in the top 3 or top 4 after the first count, I don’t think it can win, because it’s too likely to get eliminated early.
As for Dunkirk, I strongly suspect it won’t be top 4 after the first round, and so it will get eliminated long before those #4-#5 votes even come into play – not that it’d win even then.
I’m not predicting it, but I wouldn’t be shocked.
Strange, but wonderful race.
PRE-BAFTA, I’d say …….
Picture: 3 Billboards (3 wins overall)
Director: Shape of Water (3 wins overall)
Actress: Frances McDormand (Hawkins second)
Actor: Gary Oldman (2 wins for Darkest Hour)
S.Actress: Allison Janney (with Metcalf & Manville hot on her tail)
S.Actor: Sam Rockwell
Original Screenplay: Get Out (its big win)
Adapted Screenplay: CMBYN (its big win)
Cinematography: Shape of Water (yes, I went there)
Production Design: Blade Runner 2049 (yes, I went there)
Costume: Phantom Thread (its big win)
Song: Greatest Showman (power ballad in the big hit movie)
Score: Shape of Water
Editing: Dunkirk (3 tech wins)
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Make Up/Hair: Darkest Hour
Foreign film: A Fantastic Woman (or The Square, driving me crazy)
Animated: Coco (a-duh)
Documentary: Last Men in Aleppo (just a feeling)
It’s heartbreaking seeing some Jordan Peele getting a BD nomination and James Gray not getting any recognition for that masterwork called The Lost City of Z. I guess he’s not black enough for the SJW mafia.
Enough with black directors getting all the nominations!
Actually, he is suggesting replacing one with one he thinks deserves it more. I don’t think many would agree with him. He seems to worship Nolan. The best thing about the season is the shutout of Nolan, even though I actually like “Dunkirk” much more than most of his other works. I can’t stand the internet fanboys.
“I guess he’s not black enough for the SJW mafia.”
I mean, he’s basically saying Peele got in because he’s black.
Ironically all the oxygen thieves posting shit like this about Get Out are unintentionally proving Peele’s point
The thing is that movie never caught on the way Get Out is, box office performance does matters for the Oscars. Even if it’s not as much of a popularity contest as people’s choice awards, it’s still a popularity contest.
Get Out was a far superior film for the budget and the genre. Lost City of Z brought what different to the adventure drama genre? And to say because he was black that’s why he got in is kinda boring. Peele’s talent as a director proved he has what it takes to be around for years
“Get Out was a far superior film”, NOPE. Not even in the slightest
The movie isn’t good enough.
Completely off-topic but I think that I can get a good range of opinions here: which of these Powell and Pressburger movies would be the top priority to see first:
The Life and Death of Colonel Blimp
Black Narcissus
Tales of Hoffman
Black Narcissus, Red Shoes, Col. Blimp
Black Narcissus.
basically all of their films before Tales of Hoffman.
The Red Shoes
Michael Powell’s Peeping Tom and Thief of Bagdad
Black Narcissus
49th Parallel
A Canterbury Tale
A Matter of Life and Death
The Life and Death of Colonel Blimp
I Know Where I’m Going!
other movies
Tales of Hoffman, ha.
The stat that I used in late December to predict Del Toro is clear favourite for BD also points to TSOW winning BP. Three Billboards is not even close.
It’s all about the BOS, isn’t it? If Three Billboards wins Best Original Screenplay then its over and it definitely wins BP. However, if it loses, most likely to “Get Out”, then TSOW is almost certain to win BP. Three Billboards could still win BP with just actors but that seems less likely. “Get Out” is a huge favourite for BOS, so why do some people have Three Billboards as BP favourite? They are hoping Three Billboards wins BAFTA screenplay so it can tie “Get Out” in number of screenplay wins among the big precursors(GG, BFCA, WGA and BAFTA). BFCA-WGA V GG-BAFTA screenplay showdown has never happened before so it’s unclear who is favourite in that scenario. I think it would be stupid to just focus on that rather the individual awards and which ones are more reliable.
Here’s the clincher stat: Since 1996 when “Fargo” won the Oscar, only one film has won Original screenplay without winning either the WGA or BFCA: “Talk to Her”. “Get out” did not just win one of them but won both of them. You need to win one or other. You have to win BFCA if you’re not eligible for WGA. As I have said before, losing BFCA and then claiming WGA ineligibility is not going to wash. You need to proof you’re good enough to win WGA by winning BFCA.
I just found a stat that is even stronger than SAG (knew it was always kinda there, really.). Claudiu, I told you “Get Out” is a huge favourite for BOS.
And Milk and Sling Blade are less comparable to the situation Get Out is in than Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and The Cider House Rules are to Three Billboards’ case
What do you mean?
Milk was in a lineup with no other films that were best picture nominees and thus it lost the single-category Globe and BFCA to award Slumdog Millionaire instead. Instead Get Out would have to be the general screenplay winner as to win Three Billboards and The Shape of Water it would most likely win over Call Me by Your Name as well. And Sling Blade won over a best picture winner but the best picture winner didn’t have a strong screenplay, thus the case would be comparable if it was The Shape of Water vs. Get Out only.
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King is a best picture winner, which Three Billboards might be in the future and won over several more screenplay-driven films (Mystic River and American Splendor) because it was winning best picture along with other awards. The Cider House Rules also won an acting category, was quite acting-driven, wasn’t necessarily re-inventing the wheel (which seems to be the case with Three Billboards) and was a bit of a best picture contender or at least a very clear second-place film that year.
I don’t think GO is a huge favorite for OS at the Oscars… until 3B loses OS at BAFTA.
Your system starts to get holes when we go to adapted, though (I don’t believe in the idea that screenplay categories have their own stats as people vote on them simiarly): that doesn’t explain Up in the Air losing, nor does it get Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King or The Pianist or The Cider House Rules or Gods and Monsters winning.
And here’s another one that has just one exception on the original side until 1993 and one less in general since 1996: a film has to win BAFTA screenplay or get a Globe nomination to win. The exceptions are: Milk, Sling Blade, Gods and Monsters, The Pianist and Precious
Also, to win the Screenplay Oscar (regardless of Original/Adapted), the film needs at least one additional above-the-line nomination. The vast majority of Screenplay winners fit this criteria. Case in Point: GODS AND MONSTERS (2 acting nods), ETERNAL SUNSHINE (Best Actress nod), TALK TO HER (Directing nod), SLING BLADE (Best Actor nod), and more.
I know it’s hard to understand but they are different categories you know. The stats are comparable or even close. I didn’t even bother to look at Adapted because they are different categories. The stats are different for them, but why that is I don’t have a clue. It is staggering stat though, especially the fact “Get Out” has won both WGA and BFCA.
Literally the only WGA and BFCA winner we’ve ever had that didn’t also win either the Globe or BAFTA was Arrival last year, and that one lost the Oscar. You can try to spin it and say it’s not relevant, but then you’re still left with a sample size of zero for Get Out’s situation. Arrival was also snubbed at the Golden Globes, by the way.
TROTK and “The Pianist” are kinda of exception because the former didn’t look like a screenplay winner but was just part of rewarding the a great trilogy, while the latter came out of nowhere to win. The other ones I am not familiar with but they probably had weak competition so something had to give.
Gods and Monsters had no competition but then again Gods and Monsters wasn’t that competition either. The Cider House Rules was the picture runner-up that year and won over The Insider, The Green Mile and The Talented Mr. Ripley. Up in the Air lost perhaps mostly because of the writing dispute. Milk was against no competition (the film lost BAFTA to McDonagh, though) and Sling Blade was a weird case, The English Patient had won some precursors but Sling Blade kind of won perhaps because it was Billy Bob Thornton winning an award (actors voting for actors) or because the film is more dialog-driven
So you’ve finally stumbled onto the key that unlocks the mystery of BP winner ?
Best screenplay is the hinge of fate that this race turns upon
3 Bills must have it
SHAPE can win without it
GET OUT seems fated to act as a spoiler allowing SHAPE to win BP by default
SHAPE is very unlikely to win BSP
If GO wins BSP Oscar then SHAPE has surely won BP !
[OK, it doesn’t look like this got posted the first time around, so I’m re-posting it – hopefully it gets through this time. If there’ll be a double, I’ll delete one of them later.]
“”Get Out” is a huge favourite for BOS, so why do some people have Three Billboards as BP favourite?”
Because the first sentence of that is most likely incorrect. In more ways than one. See below for details!
“BFCA-WGA V GG-BAFTA screenplay showdown has never happened before so it’s unclear who is favourite in that scenario.”
Yet Get Out is a huge favorite, you say, in a scenario that’s never happened before… That should already tell you something’s wrong with the whole concept, if you ask me. To put it mildly.
“Here’s the clincher stat: Since 1996 when “Fargo” won the Oscar, only one film has won Original screenplay without winning either the WGA or BFCA: “Talk to Her”. “Get out” did not just win one of them but won both of them. You need to win one or other. You have to win BFCA if you’re not eligible for WGA. As I have said before, losing BFCA and then claiming WGA ineligibility is not going to wash. You need to proof you’re good enough to win WGA by winning BFCA.”
You can, of course, find a pretty much endless list of stats that say Three Billboards is the underdog for screenplay, if you keep pretending its ineligibility for the WGA is the same as a loss. It’s just not, there’s absolutely no evidence for that, or any reason to treat it that way, and that, of course, changes EVERYTHING. So, please stop doing that – pretending it’s the same! I’ve told you repeatedly I can’t take any such stats seriously, and I’m pretty sure most of the people that have given this any thought whatsoever would agree with me.
I’m ready and very interested to hear about any and all stats that say Get Out is a favorite for screenplay, huge or otherwise, that don’t include the WGA in any way, because, no matter how you spin it, including it taints the analysis and renders it completely worthless, at least from a logical perspective, when it comes to this year’s race. It still has value as a curiosity, or as a springboard for something that’s actually relevant, or it could have value in years to come, obviously, when none of the screenplay favorites is ineligible for the WGA. But not this year.
“You have to win BFCA if you’re not eligible for WGA.”
So, obviously, this is the only part of your stat that’s actually relevant in any way to this year’s situation. However, I assume you’re not going to tell me movies that did not win the Globe, like Three Billboards did, and were ineligible for the WGA, are as relevant to the situation as movies that won the Globe… Or at all relevant. So, let’s see, how many Golden Globe winners for screenplay were ineligible for the WGA in the BFCA era: Birdman – won the Critics Choice, won the Oscar; Django Unchained – won the Critics Choice, won the Oscar. And that’s it! Your stat has a sample size of two, and is one different result away from 50%… Random variance? Quite possibly. Also possibly relevant, though not mathematically, in any way, or even logically, if you ask me, and most certainly nowhere near enough to make any movie a big favorite over the other, in any event.
So, let me do what I suggested you do, above, and remove the WGA from the equation, to see how Golden Globe winners do, compared to Critics Choice winners, at the Oscars, when those two awards go to different movies, and both of those winners are then nominated at the Oscars in the same category, like Get Out and Three Billboards are! The score is a “whopping” 2-1 in favor of the Critics Choice winner. Yet again, such overwhelming statistical evidence!… 🙂 Globe-winner Lost in Translation beat BFCA-winner In America, BFCA-winner Little Miss Sunshine beat Globe-winner The Queen, and BFCA-co-winner Manchester by the Sea beat Globe-winner La La Land. (Which, however, was also the Critics Choice co-winner, and that isn’t really the same situation at all, as La La Land also won the BFCA and still lost, so counting that as a “win” for the BFCA is at least suspect, since it didn’t even actually give us any indication of what would win that year, by tying between the only two movies that could… But, OK, let’s call it 2-1, for the sake of simplicity!) Of course, crucially, both Little Miss Sunshine and Manchester by the Sea first won BAFTA, before winning the Oscar. In America didn’t. Coincidence? I think not…
So, we’re back to what I’ve been saying all along: if Get Out wins BAFTA, it’s probably a pretty significant favorite. Nobody’s been disputing that, anyway. (I might, later, if it comes to that, and I find stats that say otherwise, but I’m definitely not doing so right now, nor have I ever, up to this point.) If Three Billboards wins BAFTA, then, well, we just don’t know what’s favorite, for the most part, but we can certainly say there’s absolutely no evidence either it or Get Out are any kind of a big favorite for screenplay, other than – I’m forced to repeat myself -, of course, the stat that says the last 14 screenplay winners (last 7 years – and 15/16 in the preferential era) were all at least nominated for screenplay at the Golden Globes, unlike Get Out. Which is the reason I make Three Billboards a favorite in that scenario. You don’t have to agree with me – but the numbers do.
Also, again, since we’re, apparently, comparing stat sizes, for some reason :), literally NOTHING is stronger than the one that says “no movie has won BP after losing the WGA and having one other major industry snub”, which has a sample size of at least 60, probably higher. You’re not going to find a stronger stat than that. That’s a truly prohibitive stat (and even that can be broken, of course), not like yours, which is, in reality, as far as this year is concerned, based on just a couple of precedents – that happened to lead to the same result… And my stat says The Shape of Water can’t win Best Picture, while Three Billboards can. What say you to that, sir? 🙂 Will you again bring up that “stat” about PGA+DGA winners losing only to WGA winners, which is based on, again, a handful of precedents, and once more completely ignores the WGA eligibility issue? And, by the way, now that I think about it, it’s also technically incorrect, because Gravity won the PGA and DGA and lost to a movie that didn’t win the WGA, 12 Years a Slave. (Sure, that year’s situation is slightly different, but, since you obviously don’t care that losing the WGA and not being eligible for it are two different things, allow me to also not care about how that situation is different from the rest!…)
“I just found a stat that is even stronger than SAG”
Also, needless to say, a stat that’s on 2/2 is in no way stronger than a stat that’s on 21/22… Or even a stat to begin with.
Not sure BAFTA does the male winner last year presenting female acting awards and vice versa, but Dev Patel handing the BAFTA to Lesley Manville would just about make me spontaneously combust.
Manville is unlikely to win
I was so happy that Dev Patel won Supporting Actor for ”Lion” last year.
Same here. I so wanted him to win the Oscar. I felt he deserved it more. AACTA gave him two awards. The International arm of the academy and the local part of the Academy gave him Supporting Actor for Lion. I proudly voted for him!
I wanted Patel to win the Oscar, too. Hey, he’s making progress. Back in 2009, this ”Slumdog Millionaire” star was nominated by BAFTA, BFCA and SAG, and he was part of its SAG-winning Ensemble and received a Breakthrough Award from the National Board of Review. But the Academy failed to nominate Patel, or any other actors in ”Slumdog.”
I hope he’s getting the leading-man roles he deserves. I look forward to his ”Hotel Mumbai” with Armie Hammer, and he was just announced for Arrmando Iannucci’s modern retelling of Dickens’ ”David Copperfield.”
Have you seen ‘The Man Who Knew Infinity’ with Jeremy Irons – another great Dev performance. Lion really gave him the space and scope to show what a talented performer he is and get away from the typecast roles. Yes I too hope he is afforded Leading Man status.
Yes best moment of BAFTA, along with the screenplay win
Another Oscar ballot was revealed at Indiwire. This time with an Academy Member of the Editors Branch. His best is “Get Out”, and on his ballot he is also putting “Phanton Thread”, “3 Bilboards” and “Dunkirk”. He is not impressed with “The Shape of Water”, but thinks it is the consensus movie.
http://www.indiewire.com/2018/02/anonymous-oscar-ballot-editor-get-out-the-shape-of-water-1201929363/
Universal has hired Harvey, ha??
Why do they need Harvey, don’t they have lawyers?
Shape of Water sucks, Del Toro wins of course because of political reasons.
“Political” meaning that he’s well liked in the industry?
He’s hated four of the last five BD winners because they’re Mexicans. He goes on some strange about that because he is Nolan fanboy.
Love these! Keep ’em coming, if they keep releasing ’em! 🙂
I like Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 since I taught art and art therapy with schizophrenics.
The race for Best Original Song is definitely between Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Bobby Lopez’s ”Remember Me” (”Coco”) and Benj Pasek and Justin Paul’s ”This Is Me” (”The Greatest Showman”). If Pasek & Paul win, it’ll be the first time someone’s won consecutive Oscars for Best Song; it last happened in 1991-92 with composer Alan Menken (”Beauty and the Beast” and ”Aladdin”). However, he had different lyricists: Howard Ashman on ”Beauty and the Beast” and Tim Rice on ”A Whole New World.” … To find a composer AND lyricist who won consecutive Best Song Oscars, you have to go back to the only time it ever happened, 55 years ago: for Henry Mancini and Johnny Mercer for ”Moon River” from ”Breakfast at Tiffany’s” (1961) and ”The Days of Wine and Roses” from ”The Days of Wine and Roses” (1962).
I imagine some folks are predicting ”Mighty River” from ”Mudbound” because Mary J. Blige is up for Supporting Actress and co-writing its Best Song. Since Blige won’t win Supporting, the reasoning goes, the best way to reward her and acknowledge ”Mudbound” is to give it the Best Song Oscar. But I can’t think of any precedents for that. For instance, it’s hard to imagine an awards-giving group that likes to star-f*ck as much as the Golden Globes. They’ve given Best Song to Jon Bon Jovi, Sting, Bono, Mick Jagger, Prince and Madonna for tunes that didn’t go on to win the Oscar (and sometimes weren’t even nominated). This year, the Globes could’ve awarded Nick Jonas, Mariah Carey OR Blige, but even they went with ”This Is Me.”
FYI, the Academy didn’t shortlist ”Never Enough” ‘cuz ”The Greatest Showman” didn’t submit it. I imagine that Pasek & Paul didn’t want to risk splitting votes by offering two songs, like they did with ”La La Land”: ”City of Stars” & ”Audition.” So they put all their chips on ”This Is Me.”
Interesting.
But how would it be consecutive wins if the Remember Me wins? They won in 2013 for Frozen.
I imagine he means consecutive times the songwriters were nominated, not necessarily during consecutive years?
You’re right. I blew it. Only Pasek & Paul can be consecutive winners. I meant to say that both the Lopezes and Pasek & Paul were previous winners. I’ll re-edit it.
Also, it is worth noting that Pasek and Paul are only an Emmy win shy of completing the EGOT.
“Remember Me” will definitely win. “Coco” is a loved film and will easily win. The Academy has a tradition of awarding this award to Disney animated films. Plus the Academy just loves Disney. Add Pixar into the mix and it’s game, set and match. Always bet on Disney unless it’s a Marvel or franchise movie.
“The Academy has a tradition of awarding this award to Disney animated films.”
A Disney movie (Moana) literally just lost to a Pasek/Paul song last year.
The Princess And The Frog, WALL-E, Enchanted, Cars, The Emperor’s New Groove, and Hercules are all also recent examples of Disney songs losing to songs from non-Disney movies. It doesn’t happen infrequently.
They get so many nominations that they are unlikely to win. it’s not just Disney, but the quality of the song and its competition. When the film is as strong as “Coco” and the song is as popular or memorable as this, it cannot lose. It already won many awards and it’s unlikely to lose. If it does lose, then I will put up my hand. I wasn’t talking about just songs, by the way. There is a clear Disney bias at the Academy.
You cannot just look at the Disney, but they strength of the films and songs too. If they are any way close to winning, they almost always win. LLL was a clear favourite and I am sure none of the other were favourite or close to it. You might find or exceptions, but the patter remains the same. If it’s a strong and especially from a strong film, it will win.
We agree here. (Except about the “definitely” part.)
Just throwing something out there: every original song Oscar winner since The Weary Kind has won at least one critics’ award for original song. This Is Me hasn’t at least in my quick search won one yet
I’m guessing you’re not counting the Golden Globes, which includes reviewers, as a critics’ award? … Anyway, ”Remember Me” has won Best Song from the critics’ groups in Denver, Houston, Iowa and Phoenix. Not every critics’ group votes on a Best Original Song, so I don’t know how reliable that statistic would be.
In my research, I found the Yoga Awards, apparently a Spanish equivalent of the Razzies. And their pick for Worst Foreign Film was ”The Greatest Showman” (!).
I meant regional critics’ awards, thus I didn’t even count BFCA.
I always hate these “Worst of the Year” awards. They’re either obvious and thus pointless or they attack solid movies and thus they just don’t choose the correct winners. The worst was The Stinkers Bad Movie Awards which gave out some truly disgusting nominations, especially in their stupidly named “Worst Sense of Direction (Stop them before they direct again!)” category which nominated Brian De Palma (x2), David Lynch (x2), Oliver Stone and Spike Lee. Maybe some of those films that they nominated for weren’t that great (although Inland Empire and Lost Highway are incredible and deserved to get best director nominations for Lynch instead of worst director nominations) but you can’t say that these masters shouldn’t direct more movies
And the award for worst award show goes too….
So I’m predicting the right thing, then. 🙂 Cool!
I was wondering if they did that. It’s a shame because “This is Me” isn’t the best song off the soundtrack. My favorite is “Rewrite the Stars” but “Never Enough” is probably the most Oscar-y.
“FYI, the Academy didn’t shortlist ”Never Enough” ‘cuz ”The Greatest Showman” didn’t submit it.”
Yeah, I’d assumed that was it. Thanks for the confirmation! (It’s my favorite, but I doubt it would have had any chance of winning. That’s not the kind of song they like to award.)
OT: Where are we talking about BLACK PANTHER? I know everyone here is going to see it this weekend because only the total and complete racists are waiting until next weekend.
HAHAHA
I was thinking the same thing. Where’s the Black Panther chatter. It’s getting ridiculous reviews. I assume it’s too early to make assumptions for the Oscars just yet
It’s probably the most intrigued (not to say excited) I have been for a superhero movie in a long while but I don’t know yet when I’ll be seeing it.
It’s pretty good! Michael B. Jordan is A+
I heard a decent argument for why Dunkirk could win on Vanity Fair’s latest Oscar podcast. The logic is sound, but I’m not sure I’m brave enough to predict it.
Basically, the argument is that voting will be so diffuse in the first round, with no single film likely to get much more than 20-25% of the vote, that it will take more rounds than usual to get one film over 50% — and so the question becomes not what movie is #2 on the most ballots, but what movie shows up in the middle the most, what movie is #4-5 on the most ballots? And when you think about it, Dunkirk really could be that movie. If you’re the old guard “steak eater” Academy member who ranks traditional fare like Darkest Hour or The Post first, Dunkirk probably wouldn’t be far behind. And if you’re a newer “hip” Academy member who ranks indie fare like Lady Bird or Get Out first, you’re still likely to rank Dunkirk higher than movies like Darkest Hour and The Post. Nolan is a filmmaker who is beloved by younger moviegoers, but who’s also made a movie in a genre that is beloved by older moviegoers. Basically, Dunkirk is the intersection of the two kinds of Academy members, and depending on how many rounds voting takes, it could be the movie that consensus ends up coalescing around. (It also doesn’t hurt that it’s also the highest-grossing of the BP nominees, meaning it’s probably been seen by the most voters and will therefore show up on the most ballots.)
Like I said, a decent theory, but still not sure I’m bold enough to make it my official prediction. It will feel especially weird to see Dunkirk win BP if Nolan loses Director.
What do you guys think?
I totally agree this is possible. Dunkirk is indeed a film that may appeal to traditionalists — for its subject-matter — and new Academy members — for the cache of Nolan.
I don’t know if Dunkirk itself IS the film that might do that, but i think it is very possible that the film that is in the middle rank (don’t hate, don’t love) will win. Of course, we’ll never know for sure.
I’m torn as to whether the preferential ballot, awarding the “mediocre middle”, is a good thing.
It may be in the middle for most, but, to win, it has to also be at the very top for many.
In any system, it’s 99 % likely that the winner is in top two. You need to have enough #1 votes just to survive and continue to still be in the race. And then you need second, third and so forth. That’s why it’s unlikely that a film outside top two can win BP.
Right, I understand that’s how it normally works. But the point is, support this year is so diffuse across the nominees that it might actually give a third- or fourth-ranked film the chance to rise to the top if the movies that are eliminated first get added to its count faster than the films in #1 or #2.
If your #1 pick is a movie that stays in the race until the final round, then it literally doesn’t matter how you rank the other eight nominees. The question we have to ask ourselves is, which movies will be eliminated first, and which movie is likely to be next on their ballots?
The same guy who explained his Dunkirk theory also correctly predicted Moonlight based on this idea. He realized that Fences and Hidden Figures would likely be two of the first films eliminated last year, and that the vast majority of their support would go to Moonlight over La La Land. Similarly, this year, Darkest Hour and The Post are extremely likely to be the first two films eliminated — and I would wager a bet that the vast majority of those ballots would go to support Dunkirk next.
Unless there is a clear strategy in play, it’s very unlikely for a film outside top two to win. One of the top two film will still be popular enough to defeat any other film outside the top two.
I try to never think of the preferential system as whether a film has #3 or #4 votes but as a simple race between the favorites. Once we get to the top 5 this year, which will be named best by the least amount of people? I’d have to say that Dunkirk might drop there. At the very least by the time we get to the top 4 and it would be Three Billboards against Dunkirk against The Shape of Water against Get Out, I have little doubt that Dunkirk would have the least amount of number one votes for the simple reason that it hasn’t really done anything notable in the season so far. Thus having #2s, #3s, #4s or #5s doesn’t matter. Or to put it in a different way: in which cases of these would you think that over 50% of the Academy thinks that Dunkirk is better than:
1) Get Out, Three Billboards and The Shape of Water
2) Get Out and Three Billboards
3) Get Out and The Shape of Water
4) Three Billboards and The Shape of Water
5) Get Out
6) Three Billboards
7) The Shape of Water
“Basically, the argument is that voting will be so diffuse in the first round, with no single film likely to get much more than 20-25% of the vote, that it will take more rounds than usual to get one film over 50% — and so the question becomes not what movie is #2 on the most ballots, but what movie shows up in the middle the most, what movie is #4-5 on the most ballots?”
My simulations have ALWAYS gotten to the last round of voting. Down to the last two movies. I believe Awards Daily’s simulations have also always, or almost always, gotten to the last two as well. So, I think this is, in fact, always the case, not just this year. I think for movies that aren’t divisive, it might matter more how many #2-#4 votes they get, whereas for movies that are (like we have Shape and Billboards this year) it might matter how many of those #5-#7 votes the movie gets, instead of being placed 8th or dead last, on the ballots of the people who hate it. #1 votes matter for every movie. Unless the movie is in the top 3 or top 4 after the first count, I don’t think it can win, because it’s too likely to get eliminated early.
As for Dunkirk, I strongly suspect it won’t be top 4 after the first round, and so it will get eliminated long before those #4-#5 votes even come into play – not that it’d win even then.
Strange, but wonderful race.
PRE-BAFTA, I’d say …….
Picture: 3 Billboards (3 wins overall)
Director: Shape of Water (3 wins overall)
Actress: Frances McDormand (Hawkins second)
Actor: Gary Oldman (2 wins for Darkest Hour)
S.Actress: Allison Janney (with Metcalf & Manville hot on her tail)
S.Actor: Sam Rockwell
Original Screenplay: Get Out (its big win)
Adapted Screenplay: CMBYN (its big win)
Cinematography: Shape of Water (yes, I went there)
Production Design: Blade Runner 2049 (yes, I went there)
Costume: Phantom Thread (its big win)
Song: Greatest Showman (power ballad in the big hit movie)
Score: Shape of Water
Editing: Dunkirk (3 tech wins)
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Make Up/Hair: Darkest Hour
Foreign film: A Fantastic Woman (or The Square, driving me crazy)
Animated: Coco (a-duh)
Documentary: Last Men in Aleppo (just a feeling)
Another Oscar ballot was revealed at Indiwire. This time with an Academy Member of the Editors Branch. His best is “Get Out”, and on his ballot he is also putting “Phanton Thread”, “3 Bilboards” and “Dunkirk”. He is not impressed with “The Shape of Water”, but thinks it is the consensus movie.
http://www.indiewire.com/2018/02/anonymous-oscar-ballot-editor-get-out-the-shape-of-water-1201929363/
Love these! Keep ’em coming, if they keep releasing ’em! 🙂
Dunkirk should win BP and BD. I’ll never understand how voters think that Del Toro’s direction in that film was better than Nolan in Dunkirk. It’s ridiculous.
Agreed.
Dunkirk should be winning Best Picture this year. It’s epic, beautiful, box-office hit, strong reviews. Could it just be the Nolan bias? Had another director helmed this project, would it be in the bag? It seems to be lost in the mist and that’s a shame. I was pulling for Nolan to win the DGA to spice up the race, but alas- he lost to the predictable. I hope the movie still wins some tech awards (I’m betting on the sound categories and editing. It could surprise with Cinematography too).
I don’t think even anti-Nolan bias goes that far… 🙂 No, it seems a lot more likely they just didn’t connect with it or its characters. A shame, indeed!…
I’m rooting really hard for that Cinematography win. Would be so deserving! I know people want Deakins to win, but he’s a legend regardless, and I don’t feel like an Oscar would really add anything to that. Is Hitchcock less of a legend because he never won one? Did he get to make fewer movies because of it? I wouldn’t know, but I doubt it, given his stature at the time.
Now, I can root for someone like Emma Stone last year to win, even not thinking she deserved it for that particular performance (though she most certainly did for others, especially Birdman, as well as for her consistent greatness in anything she’d been in), because she’s not yet a superstar (or at least wasn’t until she won last year), and an Oscar might help her in her career. But I don’t really see what it would do for Deakins. It’d be nice for his fans, of course (I like his work as much as the next dude, though I can’t really say I’m quite as much into cinematography as other people, so I’m not a “fan”, per se, of anybody in that field, really – I’m a fan of the cinematography itself for certain movies… like Dunkirk, this year, or Deakins’ work on Sicario two years ago), because they’d feel he’s getting long overdue recognition. I completely understand that, but I have no reason to root for it myself. I’m not rooting against it, either – I’m just rooting for Dunkirk to win in that category. Four of the nominees have to lose, and I’d rather it was Dunkirk that wasn’t among those four than any other movie. 🙂
And I really hope it doesn’t lose editing! It’s maybe even more deserving there…
Feinberg’s predictions are giving me something to think about. He has Dunkirk winning Cinematography and losing Sound Mixing to Shape Of Water (both of which sort of make sense, especially the latter), and most of all he has MARSHALL for Best Song. I thought it would be the weakest nominee in the field, but he placed it in front. I don’t know, maybe he’s friends with Dianne Warren, but I’m still predicting Coco, which he places dead last.
Stats-wise, the weakest nominee for song is “Mighty River”. There are no real precedents for “Stand Up For Something” winning, either. It could happen, but it would be a stats upset. “Mighty River” winning would be an even bigger stats upset. I’m predicting “Remember Me” as well, but it’s super-close with the Globe winner, “This Is Me”. Recent precedents that are close enough in terms of trajectory favor the former, but older ones are shakier…
I’m predicting Mystery of Love because I just can’t live in a world where it loses to either of the frontrunners.
🙂 You might have a problem after the 4th, then… But, of course, it’s song, it’s not the most stats-prohibitive category out there. Things can happen.
I really don’t see Stand Up For Something as a potential spoiler, really. Lady Gaga lost to Sam Smith for that horrible James Bond song only because everone had watched Spectre, so I really doubt the Academy will vote for a song from a film no one knows.
In any other year, Coco would be a steamroller. The thing that gives me pause is that This Is Me, even though I despise it, seems to be sticking, and it’s from a popular, if divisive, movie. And it won the Globe too.
Yeah, when the Critics Choice winner and the Golden Globe winner have both been nominated at the Oscars, the Critics Choice winner has won more often than not, and has done so the last two times, while the third-most recent such race, about 15 years ago, saw a movie not nominated at either win, instead, but there’s a difference, because, that time, the BFCA tied in that category, so there was no single Critics Choice winner… The two times before that, the Globe winner took it, and the firs year of the Critics Choice song category their winner, again, beat the Globe winner at the Oscars. So, nothing too solid, but the trend does seem to favor the BFCA’s winner pretty clearly.
Another interesting thing is that 3/4 times that the Globe-winning song lost at the Oscars since 1999, it was to a song from an animated feature. 🙂 Haven’t checked beyond that – no Critics Choice award in this category before 1999, anyway. And, leaving aside stats and such, I don’t see any strong arguments for why one of them should beat the other. Pretty much everybody should have seen Coco, and there’s no guarantee they’ll like “This Is Me” that much, even though it’s the more popular/mainstream song.
Apparently neither “Stand Up for Something” nor “Mystery of Love” are being performed on the show. Take that how you will.
This is the first I’m hearing of this. Who reported this? Got a link to the story?
Have the Oscars done this before? It seems so unfair. It should be all or none.
They at least did this before in 2012 with Before My Time and Pi’s Lullaby not being performed I guess because the performers weren’t famous enough
Andra Day and Common, a recent Oscar winner for Best Song, sang ”Stand Up for Something” for ”Marshall.” And Sufjan Stevens is an acclaimed singer-songwriter. They’re not exactly nobodies.
And the N.Y. Times just did a piece profiling all of the nominees.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/14/movies/oscar-best-song-mary-blige-sufjan-stevens.html
I just did a Google search and found nothing to confirm or deny Peter’s assertion. I don’t think it’s been officially announced either way.
So far, all I’ve seen is that Stevens IS going to the Oscars, but he hasn’t been ask to perform ”The Mystery of Love” (this was a couple of weeks ago); maybe someone else is singing it, or maybe it is getting cut.
It was on the Gold Derby forum. Apparently the rule is they can have 0-3-5 of the nominated songs performed. They went with 3. I have a feeling this hasn’t been announced yet because they knew there’d be a backlash at excluding two African American performers (Andra and Common) and an LGBT performer (Sufjan) from a LGBT-centered Best Picture nominee.
Boy, I’ve never heard of that 0-3-5 rule … or read that Stevens is LGBT.
By the way, I found that post on GoldDerby’s message board. Chris Beachum, who’s a reputable editor there, says it’s a rumor he’s heard.
Yeah, he’s definitely not… at least, publicly. He may well be gay for all I or anyone knows, but he has never said so. In fact, he’s spoken way more about his Christian faith than he has about his sexuality.
Is Stevens singing about God or about being gay? Or is he bi? There’s certainly speculation online about it, but he hasn’t weighed in on it.
https://www.ursinusgrizzly.com/is-this-sufjan-stevens-song-gay-or-just-about-god/
I just re-watched Beauty and the Beast last night and boy does Jacqueline Durran deserve to win Costume Design. Just look at the details on the costumes and I’m not even pertaining to the yellow ball dress. But the castle costumes, Belle’s village clothes espwcially her hoodie!!!, Gaston’s, Maurice’s and the village people which I couldn’t help to notice even if they’re just in the background. I really hope it wins Costume Design
Also the Hair and Make Up in it blew Darkest Hour out of the park. The opening HMU design is really award-worthy especially the prince’s and how it portray’s decadent fantasy. Says a lot about his character.
I think Jacqueline Durran is going to win the BAFTA for Beauty and The Beast.
I really hope so. It will boost its Oscar chances. But Mark Bridges’ work in Phantom Thread is also formidable I must say.
The costume design in ”Beauty and the Beast” certainly was showier and more opulent, and there were tons and tons of costumes. Actually, it would’ve been my pick. ”Phantom Thread” is about a fashion designer and has far fewer costumes for much of the movie; near the end, there’s a costume ball, but the way it’s filmed, we rarely see much of it close-up.
That said, Durran is a past Oscar winner and nominated for not only ”Beauty and the Beast,” but ”Darkest Hour.” If Academy voters want to acknowledge ”Phantom Thread,” this is probably its likeliest win.
“’Phantom Thread” is about a fashion designer and has far fewer costumes for much of the movie; near the end, there’s a costume ball, but the way it’s filmed, we rarely see much of it close-up.”
The period costume work for the characters (Alma, Reynolds, Cyril and all of their clients) may seem low key, but is terrific. The interplay between their clothing, the sets, and the story is really sophisticated.
I agree the costume design in ”Phantom Thread” is terrific. And it’s a shame Anderson didn’t choose to showcase more of it from the movie’s costume ball. But as you acknowledge, it may ”seem low-key.” As we know, subtlety is not a strong suit at the Oscars. And the Academy voters often celebrate the most flamboyant period costumes. But if the Oscars want to reward ”Phantom Thread,” this is where that support can go.
“I’m not even pertaining to the yellow ball dress.”
Thank god you’re not, because that was the single most hideous piece of costume design I’ve seen in a movie in a long time.
http://costumevault.blogspot.com/2017/06/burning-question-whats-wrong-with.html
Truly awful stuff. To botch an iconic dress like that…*smh*
I don’t think it’s hideous, it’s just very simple and I found it the weakest among the designs in the film. I like that they didn’t went for the big ball gown. It won’t fit the dance scene unlike the beautiful one in Cinderella. Same with the Beast’s blue suit. But the rest of the designs where just exquisite craftsmanship till the very small details.
I wonder if we’re going to have the same year like the Cinderella was nominated which went to a BP nominee Mad Max: Fury Road, though deserving as well, but the craftsmanship in Cinderella was more ingenious to me.
So nice to see Get Out rise to #2
Why the fuck do you keep choosing “A fantastic woman”??? IT’S NOT GONNA MOTHER FUCKING WIN!!!
And where is your prediction for best song??
“And where is your prediction for best song??”
Bitch!… 🙂
Now now, take your meds.
Still making my way through the latest podcast and listening to you all discuss Get Out; granted it was moments after it won the WGA; if it goes on to win the Oscar for screenplay – after hearing your perceptions on it as well as the preferential voting system – it could do a Spotlight and win BP and Screenplay only. I just wonder whether enough voters will get past the horror/comedy mashup genre when considering Best Picture of the year? Likewise Shape of Water. The last time a fantasy or sci fi won BP was Lord of the Rings and that was to honour the huge trilogy achievement. Will AMPAS get behind a fantasy flick for the big prize?
I really don’t think War of the Planet of the Apes is winning Visual Effects. That franchise NEVER wins. I think Blade Runner 2049 wins this easily. It’s a better liked movie, and the effect are also spectacular. Not sure why anyone is jumping on the Planet bandwagon other then it looks like it has a lot going on. I remember pundits predicting the previous films to win, and they lost.
I also have a feeling Blade Runner, on the contrary, will lose Cinematography to Shape of Water. Roger Deakins IS due, but his name won’t be on the ballot. The movie will be. And Shape leads the nominations, and usually these epics fail to win the top prize but manage to win a bunch of techs (think Mad Max, Gravity). Therefore, I think Shape of Water takes this- but just barely.
Best Picture is truly a mystery. I just don’t see Shape of Water being our winner, despite its PGA win. PGA has been wrong the last two years and SOW also lost the Golden Globe (Drama) and SAG Ensemble prizes. It seems to be a “meh” type of check off choice, and with this BIG long gap between voting (which doesn’t even start until Feb 20th), I think its safe to say this is between Get Out and Three Billboards. Remember – voters WANT to pick something thats socially important. Not fantasy. Shape of Water, like La La Land and Mad Max/Revenant before it, falls under the fantasy category. Visually stunning, but not really something that’s “about something vital for the American Public”. Sounds insane right? This is the voters talking, not me. If this were the 90s, then of course they would be lapping it up. The 90s were all about the epics- from Dances with Wolves, English Patient, Titanic, Braveheart, Shakespeare in Love, Schindler’s List- and even to extent, Unforgiven and Forrest Gump. Only The Silence of the Lambs and American Beauty seemed to be a little more intimate- and even here, you had all star cast, directors, and soaring stories people still talk about.
It’s a shame the Best Director prize has become the default “Second Place” award. I remember when And Lee won for Life of Pi- there was this feeling in the room that he only won this because voters didn’t have Ben Affleck’s name to check off, so he was easily the silver medal. But Life of Pi also falls into the Fantasy Film mold that reeks of gorgeous cinematography, music and sets- but not necessarily heart (even though I for one, loved Life of Pi and was heartbroken by the min twist at the end).
Of all the recent Best Picture winners, only Birdman as been able to win both Best Picture AND Best Director. And it wasn’t really about anything socially important, but it was- in a way- a unique look into the theater industry and how filmmakers can utilize camera tricks and Michael Keaton with a comeback for the ages. Plus 2014, lets face it, sucked compared to other years. The only Socially Important movie it was really going against wasn’t Boyhood, but American Sniper. And THAT movie could have won, had it not peaked too late and also had that dreadful fake baby (remember that embarrassment??). Bradley Cooper, though, was my pick for Best Actor. What a performance!
Get Out’s only dilemma is that it lost the SAG Ensemble prize (as did Moonlight last year), but ALSO lost the Golden Globe (which Moonlight won). Despite WGA, has it won anything else substantial? Not really. It would go down to be the first Best Picture winner without any other major precursor for best film since Crash (correct me if I’m wrong, I’m sort of rambling this off the top of my head). It’s not really divided per say- and with preferential balloting, you sort of have to be up towards the top of the heap. Not a love it/hate it.
Which is what is hurting 3 Billboards. It has the Globe, SAG Ensemble, acting wins sewn up, political message. BUT- it has no best director nomination AND it’s a divisive movie. But I still am going out on a limb and saying it wins 3 Oscars, for Picture, Actress and Supporting Actress. But Get Out is DEF competitive.
FEB 16th OSCAR PREDICTONS
PICTURE: 3 Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
DIRECTOR: Shape of Water
ACTOR: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
ACTRESS: Frances McDormand, 3 Billboards
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Sam Rockwell, 3 Billboards
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Allison Janney, I Tonya (Laurie Metcalf biggest chance to spoil)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Get Out, Jordan Peele
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Shape of Water
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Shape of Water
FILM EDITING: Dunkirk
SOUND MIXING: Dunkirk
SOUND EDITING: Dunkirk
VISUAL EFFECTS: Blade Runner 2049
ORIGINAL SCORE: Shape of Water
SONG: Coco (Mudbound could spoil; Globes have been terrible predictors for this prize)
ANIMATED FEATURE: Coco
MAKEUP: Darkest Hour
COSTUME DESIGN: Phantom Thread
The smaller categories like Documentary Short, Feature, Animated Short- give me a few days. THOSE are the tricky ones that can make or break your Oscar pool! Will Kobe win that Oscar?
“SONG: Coco (Mudbound could spoil; Globes have been terrible predictors for this prize)”
Actually, whenever the Golden Globe winner for song is also Oscar-nominated, it wins a large percentage of the time – including the last three times in a row. There are only 5 exceptions to this rule since 1975, the most recent being “Ordinary Love” losing to “Let It Go” and “The Hands That Built America” losing to “Lose Yourself”. 🙂 The other 29 Globe-winning songs in this interval that have been nominated for the Oscar all won it. That’s 85% of the time. And the remaining eight years, when the Globe-winning song wasn’t nominated at the Oscars, neither was the Oscar winner at the Globes. (Those don’t concern us, anyway, as that’s not the case this year, and the two situations are quite different.) So, overall, 29 times out of 42 (69% of the time) the Globe winner was nominated at the Oscars and won, 8 times (19%) it wasn’t, and then the winner was one of the songs not nominated at the Globes every single time, and only 4 times (10%) was the winner a movie that lost at the Globes, beating the Globe winner. The song “Until…” from Kate & Leopold won the Globe and was nominated, but lost the Oscar to a movie not nominated at the Globes. (2%.)
This is the stat that helped me predict “Writing’s on the Wall”… So, this year, “This is Me looks like a strong favorite – again, 85%, going by the stat above -, after its Globe win, followed by the Oscar nod. The two it beat at the Globes (“Mighty River” and “Remember Me”) are in the 12% category of the four movies that lost the Globe but still managed to beat the winning song there to win the Oscar, so those can win, but are rather unlikely, from the perspective of this stat. And the remaining two (“Mystery of Love” and “Stand Up for Something”) are even less likely, as they have just the one true precedent in the last four decades (2001, the only time in this interval that a movie not nominated at the Globes beat the Globe winner, the aforementioned Kate & Leopold song) for winning since 1975, for 3%. (Of the 34 times that the Globes winner was also nominated at the Oscars, which has also happened this year.)
I’m rooting for ”The Mystery of Love” from ”Call Me by Your Name” (despite its long odds), and I also love ”Remember Me” from ”Coco,” especially the Spanish version. (It won Best Song from the Broadcast Film Critics.) But I bet the Oscar goes to ”This Is Me” from ”The Greatest Showman.” It’s in the Billboard Hot 100 and the film’s soundtrack was No. 1 on Billboard’s 200 album chart last month.
🙂 I’m rooting for “This Is Me”, since “Never Enough”, from the same movie, wasn’t nominated. (Or shortlisted.) Then, I guess “Stand Up For Something”… I also liked “Remember Me”, but less so the song than the way it was used in the movie. (Incidentally, that was the only part/scene I really liked in that movie – I found the rest of it incredibly annoying.)
Also see my updated stats post about this category above. (I also took a look at Critics Choice stats, with some interesting results – no idea why I’d never done that before, apart from the obvious… lack of interest…)
After doing this, I’m now predicting “Remember Me” – but it’s a very close call with “This Is Me”.
Hmm fascinating. I guess my brain didn’t catch on to that stat. You know what- I think I mixed up Song with Best Score. How the Globes with predicting Best Score? That might be what threw me for a loop.
🙂 They’re not bad, actually! 2/4 in the last few years, but they did manage to get the last two right… However, one of those years, their winner wasn’t nominated for the Oscar in the first place, so you couldn’t predict it anyway. In fact, since 2001, only two of their winners that were Oscar-nominated for score lost, the others all won. (And I believe only two or three weren’t nominated, so it’s a good percentage.)
But, as you can see, after I looked at both Globe AND Critics Choice stats, combined, I came up with the same predicted winner for song as you, anyway. 🙂 Though it is very close, and the Globe winner could easily be the right answer, instead. But, hey, at least now you can be pretty sure the Mudbound song isn’t the real threat – it’s still “This Is Me”!
Well Crash did win the SAG ensemble, the WGA, and the Ace Eddie drama. Get Out has won less major precursors so its an even bigger uphill battle for it to win Best Picture.
I just took a closer look at the BFCA song results in conjunction with the Globe and Oscar results in the same category, since 1998, and the resulting stats and precedents:
The Oscar-winning song has always, since 2007, been at least nominated for the Critics Choice in that category; the Critics Choice winner, when nominated at the Oscars, has won 7/9 times, since 2003, the exceptions being “Listen”, from Dreamgirls, and “If I Rise”, from 127 Hours. Both of which lost to a movie also nominated at the Critics Choice, but not also at the Golden Globes. Logically, given the stat above, the 5 songs that won at the Oscars in this time span after losing the Critics Choice were either not nominated for the Golden Globe – four of them – or were, and won it – “Writing’s on the Wall”. To sum up, since 1999, the first year the Critics Choice gave out a song award, the Oscar winner for Best Song has been either the Critics Choice winner (4 times), the Golden Globe winner (4 times), the winner of both (4 times), a movie not nominated for either (3 times) or a movie that lost the Critics Choice and wasn’t even nominated for the Golden Globe (4 times). The only time the Golden Globe and Critics Choice winners for song were different, there was no tie at the Critics Choice, and were both nominated at the Oscars, as well as at both the Globes and Critics Choice (making it the only perfect precedent for this year’s situation), “Let It Go”, the Critics Choice winner, beat “Ordinary Love”, the Golden Globe winner, at the Oscars in 2014.
Combining the two, I came up with the following, updated predictions (yes, I changed my prediction after looking at these and how they relate to one another), based on the extra information and adjusted stats, as well as the re-evaluation of precedents:
1. “Remember Me” (The precedent count is about equal, but the last two times the Critics Choice winner has gone up against the Globe winner at the Oscars, 2014 & 2003, the former won.)
2. “This Is Me” (The time before that, in 2002, both lost; the only times the Globe winners have prevailed in such duels come from early BFCA years, when they only announced winners.)
3. “Stand Up for Something” (Very unlikely to win – no song that lost the Critics Choice and was snubbed for the Globes has ever beaten both the BFCA and Globe winners at the Oscars.)
4. “Mystery of Love” (Unlikely for the same reason. Nor has any of the movies in that situation ever beaten even just the Golden Globe winner at the Oscars…)
5. “Mighty River” (Pretty much no shot at winning – no precedent supports it. Snubbed by the BFCA AND lost the Globe…)
The first two are obviously very close, and either could easily beat the other. I don’t know if I’m making the right choice or not – but I doubt I’ll change it between now and the Oscars, since it’s a choice entirely based on numbers (which I count as optimal) and no new data is likely to present itself in the meantime, unless I decide to go into critics awards stats, which I might…
I’ll play along for this point in time. Saturday afternoon Sydney time. I’m sure it will change, but this is the first time I’ve done this for this season
BP: 3 Billboards
BD: Shape of Water
BA: Frances McDormand
BA: Gary Oldman
BSA: Allison Janney
BSA: Sam Rockwell
Screenplay: Get Out
Screenplay: CMBYN
Cinematography: Dunkirk
Prod Design: Shape of Water
Costume: Phantom Thread
Song: Greatest Showman
Score: Shape of Water
Editing: Dunkirk
Sound editing: Baby Driver
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Make up: Darkest Hour
Foreign film: The Square
Animated: Coco
*My predix gives 3 films 3 Oscars each – 3B / Shape/ Dunkirk. 2 for Darkest Hour 1 for Get Out,
1 for Phantom Thread, 1 for CMBYN, Only Best Picture candidates empty handed Lady Bird and The Post. But that could turn on a dime – if Greta wins or Metcalf. That said; Best Picture could still go any which way. I’m predicting 3B for the two powerhouse performances and being one of the most provocative films of the year. It’s hard to ignore. My concern about Shape is the fantasy/sci fi element. Get Out – the horror/comedic element. Under preferential voting who knows how the genre films will fare.
Feinberg’s predictions are giving me something to think about. He has Dunkirk winning Cinematography and losing Sound Mixing to Shape Of Water (both of which sort of make sense, especially the latter), and most of all he has MARSHALL for Best Song. I thought it would be the weakest nominee in the field, but he placed it in front. I don’t know, maybe he’s friends with Dianne Warren, but I’m still predicting Coco, which he places dead last.
Stats-wise, the weakest nominee for song is “Mighty River”. There are no real precedents for “Stand Up For Something” winning, either. It could happen, but it would be a stats upset. “Mighty River” winning would be an even bigger stats upset. I’m predicting “Remember Me” as well, but it’s super-close with the Globe winner, “This Is Me”. Recent precedents that are close enough in terms of trajectory favor the former, but older ones are shakier…
I’m predicting Mystery of Love because I just can’t live in a world where it loses to either of the frontrunners.
I really don’t see Stand Up For Something as a potential spoiler, really. Lady Gaga lost to Sam Smith for that horrible James Bond song only because everone had watched Spectre, so I really doubt the Academy will vote for a song from a film no one knows.
In any other year, Coco would be a steamroller. The thing that gives me pause is that This Is Me, even though I despise it, seems to be sticking, and it’s from a popular, if divisive, movie. And it won the Globe too.
Apparently neither “Stand Up for Something” nor “Mystery of Love” are being performed on the show. Take that how you will.
This is the first I’m hearing of this. Who reported this? Got a link to the story?
Have the Oscars done this before? It seems so unfair. It should be all or none.
Truly fascinating year. I’ve been watching this circus for decades and it is quite a unique year in terms of the spread of films and both the obstacles and strengths that the majority of them bring; and in equal measure making it difficult to see where it ends.
Or maybe GET OUT will do 6 quads.
I agree that Metcalf could happen because I, TONYA underperformed with the Academy. If Manville wins BAFTA, she could certainly become the sudden BSA frontrunner, too.
I feel like Supporting Actress is the only acting prize still in play.
Picture seems very difficult to call, still. My gut says THREE BILLBOARDS, but if SHAPE wins BAFTA, I’ll switch to that. If DUNKIRK wins, who knows what that means… GET OUT definitely feels like the dark horse, yet still feels possible, for sure.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/three-billboards-inspired-protest-miami-calls-marc-rubio-1085786
A strong sign that THREE BILLBOARDS is hitting the zeitgeist.
I just re-watched Beauty and the Beast last night and boy does Jacqueline Durran deserve to win Costume Design. Just look at the details on the costumes and I’m not even pertaining to the yellow ball dress. But the castle costumes, Belle’s village clothes espwcially her hoodie!!!, Gaston’s, Maurice’s and the village people which I couldn’t help to notice even if they’re just in the background. I really hope it wins Costume Design
Also the Hair and Make Up in it blew Darkest Hour out of the park. The opening HMU design is really award-worthy especially the prince’s and how it portray’s decadent fantasy. Says a lot about his character.
I think Jacqueline Durran is going to win the BAFTA for Beauty and The Beast.
I really hope so. It will boost its Oscar chances. But Mark Bridges’ work in Phantom Thread is also formidable I must say.
The costume design in ”Beauty and the Beast” certainly was showier and more opulent, and there were tons and tons of costumes. Actually, it would’ve been my pick. ”Phantom Thread” is about a fashion designer and has far fewer costumes for much of the movie; near the end, there’s a costume ball, but the way it’s filmed, we rarely see much of it close-up.
That said, Durran is a past Oscar winner and nominated for not only ”Beauty and the Beast,” but ”Darkest Hour.” If Academy voters want to acknowledge ”Phantom Thread,” this is probably its likeliest win.
“I’m not even pertaining to the yellow ball dress.”
Thank god you’re not, because that was the single most hideous piece of costume design I’ve seen in a movie in a long time.
http://costumevault.blogspot.com/2017/06/burning-question-whats-wrong-with.html
Truly awful stuff. To botch an iconic dress like that…*smh*
So nice to see Get Out rise to #2
Why the fuck do you keep choosing “A fantastic woman”??? IT’S NOT GONNA MOTHER FUCKING WIN!!!
And where is your prediction for best song??
“And where is your prediction for best song??”
Bitch!… 🙂
Now now, take your meds.
Still making my way through the latest podcast and listening to you all discuss Get Out; granted it was moments after it won the WGA; if it goes on to win the Oscar for screenplay – after hearing your perceptions on it as well as the preferential voting system – it could do a Spotlight and win BP and Screenplay only. I just wonder whether enough voters will get past the horror/comedy mashup genre when considering Best Picture of the year? Likewise Shape of Water. The last time a fantasy or sci fi won BP was Lord of the Rings and that was to honour the huge trilogy achievement. Will AMPAS get behind a fantasy flick for the big prize?
I really don’t think War of the Planet of the Apes is winning Visual Effects. That franchise NEVER wins. I think Blade Runner 2049 wins this easily. It’s a better liked movie, and the effect are also spectacular. Not sure why anyone is jumping on the Planet bandwagon other then it looks like it has a lot going on. I remember pundits predicting the previous films to win, and they lost.
I also have a feeling Blade Runner, on the contrary, will lose Cinematography to Shape of Water. Roger Deakins IS due, but his name won’t be on the ballot. The movie will be. And Shape leads the nominations, and usually these epics fail to win the top prize but manage to win a bunch of techs (think Mad Max, Gravity). Therefore, I think Shape of Water takes this- but just barely.
Best Picture is truly a mystery. I just don’t see Shape of Water being our winner, despite its PGA win. PGA has been wrong the last two years and SOW also lost the Golden Globe (Drama) and SAG Ensemble prizes. It seems to be a “meh” type of check off choice, and with this BIG long gap between voting (which doesn’t even start until Feb 20th), I think its safe to say this is between Get Out and Three Billboards. Remember – voters WANT to pick something thats socially important. Not fantasy. Shape of Water, like La La Land and Mad Max/Revenant before it, falls under the fantasy category. Visually stunning, but not really something that’s “about something vital for the American Public”. Sounds insane right? This is the voters talking, not me. If this were the 90s, then of course they would be lapping it up. The 90s were all about the epics- from Dances with Wolves, English Patient, Titanic, Braveheart, Shakespeare in Love, Schindler’s List- and even to extent, Unforgiven and Forrest Gump. Only The Silence of the Lambs and American Beauty seemed to be a little more intimate- and even here, you had all star cast, directors, and soaring stories people still talk about.
It’s a shame the Best Director prize has become the default “Second Place” award. I remember when And Lee won for Life of Pi- there was this feeling in the room that he only won this because voters didn’t have Ben Affleck’s name to check off, so he was easily the silver medal. But Life of Pi also falls into the Fantasy Film mold that reeks of gorgeous cinematography, music and sets- but not necessarily heart (even though I for one, loved Life of Pi and was heartbroken by the min twist at the end).
Of all the recent Best Picture winners, only Birdman as been able to win both Best Picture AND Best Director. And it wasn’t really about anything socially important, but it was- in a way- a unique look into the theater industry and how filmmakers can utilize camera tricks and Michael Keaton with a comeback for the ages. Plus 2014, lets face it, sucked compared to other years. The only Socially Important movie it was really going against wasn’t Boyhood, but American Sniper. And THAT movie could have won, had it not peaked too late and also had that dreadful fake baby (remember that embarrassment??). Bradley Cooper, though, was my pick for Best Actor. What a performance!
Get Out’s only dilemma is that it lost the SAG Ensemble prize (as did Moonlight last year), but ALSO lost the Golden Globe (which Moonlight won). Despite WGA, has it won anything else substantial? Not really. It would go down to be the first Best Picture winner without any other major precursor for best film since Crash (correct me if I’m wrong, I’m sort of rambling this off the top of my head). It’s not really divided per say- and with preferential balloting, you sort of have to be up towards the top of the heap. Not a love it/hate it.
Which is what is hurting 3 Billboards. It has the Globe, SAG Ensemble, acting wins sewn up, political message. BUT- it has no best director nomination AND it’s a divisive movie. But I still am going out on a limb and saying it wins 3 Oscars, for Picture, Actress and Supporting Actress. But Get Out is DEF competitive.
FEB 16th OSCAR PREDICTONS
PICTURE: 3 Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
DIRECTOR: Shape of Water
ACTOR: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
ACTRESS: Frances McDormand, 3 Billboards
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Sam Rockwell, 3 Billboards
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Allison Janney, I Tonya (Laurie Metcalf biggest chance to spoil)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Get Out, Jordan Peele
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Shape of Water
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Shape of Water
FILM EDITING: Dunkirk
SOUND MIXING: Dunkirk
SOUND EDITING: Dunkirk
VISUAL EFFECTS: Blade Runner 2049
ORIGINAL SCORE: Shape of Water
SONG: Coco (Mudbound could spoil; Globes have been terrible predictors for this prize)
ANIMATED FEATURE: Coco
MAKEUP: Darkest Hour
COSTUME DESIGN: Phantom Thread
The smaller categories like Documentary Short, Feature, Animated Short- give me a few days. THOSE are the tricky ones that can make or break your Oscar pool! Will Kobe win that Oscar?
“SONG: Coco (Mudbound could spoil; Globes have been terrible predictors for this prize)”
Actually, whenever the Golden Globe winner for song is also Oscar-nominated, it wins a large percentage of the time – including the last three times in a row. There are only 5 exceptions to this rule since 1975, the most recent being “Ordinary Love” losing to “Let It Go” and “The Hands That Built America” losing to “Lose Yourself”. 🙂 The other 29 Globe-winning songs in this interval that have been nominated for the Oscar all won it. That’s 85% of the time. And the remaining eight years, when the Globe-winning song wasn’t nominated at the Oscars, neither was the Oscar winner at the Globes. (Those don’t concern us, anyway, as that’s not the case this year, and the two situations are quite different.) So, overall, 29 times out of 42 (69% of the time) the Globe winner was nominated at the Oscars and won, 8 times (19%) it wasn’t, and then the winner was one of the songs not nominated at the Globes every single time, and only 4 times (10%) was the winner a movie that lost at the Globes, beating the Globe winner. The song “Until…” from Kate & Leopold won the Globe and was nominated, but lost the Oscar to a movie not nominated at the Globes. (2%.)
This is the stat that helped me predict “Writing’s on the Wall”… So, this year, “This is Me looks like a strong favorite – again, 85%, going by the stat above -, after its Globe win, followed by the Oscar nod. The two it beat at the Globes (“Mighty River” and “Remember Me”) are in the 12% category of the four movies that lost the Globe but still managed to beat the winning song there to win the Oscar, so those can win, but are rather unlikely, from the perspective of this stat. And the remaining two (“Mystery of Love” and “Stand Up for Something”) are even less likely, as they have just the one true precedent in the last four decades (2001, the only time in this interval that a movie not nominated at the Globes beat the Globe winner, the aforementioned Kate & Leopold song) for winning since 1975, for 3%. (Of the 34 times that the Globes winner was also nominated at the Oscars, which has also happened this year.)
I’m rooting for ”The Mystery of Love” from ”Call Me by Your Name” (despite its long odds), and I also love ”Remember Me” from ”Coco,” especially the Spanish version. (It won Best Song from the Broadcast Film Critics.) But I bet the Oscar goes to ”This Is Me” from ”The Greatest Showman.” It’s in the Billboard Hot 100 and the film’s soundtrack was No. 1 on Billboard’s 200 album chart last month.
🙂 I’m rooting for “This Is Me”, since “Never Enough”, from the same movie, wasn’t nominated. (Or shortlisted.) Then, I guess “Stand Up For Something”… I also liked “Remember Me”, but less so the song than the way it was used in the movie. (Incidentally, that was the only part/scene I really liked in that movie – I found the rest of it incredibly annoying.)
Also see my updated stats post about this category above. (I also took a look at Critics Choice stats, with some interesting results – no idea why I’d never done that before, apart from the obvious… lack of interest…)
After doing this, I’m now predicting “Remember Me” – but it’s a very close call with “This Is Me”.
Hmm fascinating. I guess my brain didn’t catch on to that stat. You know what- I think I mixed up Song with Best Score. How the Globes with predicting Best Score? That might be what threw me for a loop.
Well Crash did win the SAG ensemble, the WGA, and the Ace Eddie drama. Get Out has won less major precursors so its an even bigger uphill battle for it to win Best Picture.
I just took a closer look at the BFCA song results in conjunction with the Globe and Oscar results in the same category, since 1998, and the resulting stats and precedents:
The Oscar-winning song has always, since 2007, been at least nominated for the Critics Choice in that category; the Critics Choice winner, when nominated at the Oscars, has won 7/9 times, since 2003, the exceptions being “Listen”, from Dreamgirls, and “If I Rise”, from 127 Hours. Both of which lost to a movie also nominated at the Critics Choice, but not also at the Golden Globes. Logically, given the stat above, the 5 songs that won at the Oscars in this time span after losing the Critics Choice were either not nominated for the Golden Globe – four of them – or were, and won it – “Writing’s on the Wall”. To sum up, since 1999, the first year the Critics Choice gave out a song award, the Oscar winner for Best Song has been either the Critics Choice winner (4 times), the Golden Globe winner (4 times), the winner of both (4 times), a movie not nominated for either (3 times) or a movie that lost the Critics Choice and wasn’t even nominated for the Golden Globe (4 times). The only time the Golden Globe and Critics Choice winners for song were different, there was no tie at the Critics Choice, and were both nominated at the Oscars, as well as at both the Globes and Critics Choice (making it the only perfect precedent for this year’s situation), “Let It Go”, the Critics Choice winner, beat “Ordinary Love”, the Golden Globe winner, at the Oscars in 2014.
Combining the two, I came up with the following, updated predictions (yes, I changed my prediction after looking at these and how they relate to one another), based on the extra information and adjusted stats, as well as the re-evaluation of precedents:
1. “Remember Me” (The precedent count is about equal, but the last two times the Critics Choice winner has gone up against the Globe winner at the Oscars, 2014 & 2003, the former won.)
2. “This Is Me” (The time before that, in 2002, both lost; the only times the Globe winners have prevailed in such duels come from early BFCA years, when they only announced winners.)
3. “Stand Up for Something” (Very unlikely to win – no song that lost the Critics Choice and was snubbed for the Globes has ever beaten both the BFCA and Globe winners at the Oscars.)
4. “Mystery of Love” (Unlikely for the same reason. Nor has any of the movies in that situation ever beaten even just the Golden Globe winner at the Oscars…)
5. “Mighty River” (Pretty much no shot at winning – no precedent supports it. Snubbed by the BFCA AND lost the Globe…)
The first two are obviously very close, and either could easily beat the other. I don’t know if I’m making the right choice or not – but I doubt I’ll change it between now and the Oscars, since it’s a choice entirely based on numbers (which I count as optimal) and no new data is likely to present itself in the meantime, unless I decide to go into critics awards stats, which I might…
I’ll play along for this point in time. Saturday afternoon Sydney time. I’m sure it will change, but this is the first time I’ve done this for this season
BP: 3 Billboards
BD: Shape of Water
BA: Frances McDormand
BA: Gary Oldman
BSA: Allison Janney
BSA: Sam Rockwell
Screenplay: Get Out
Screenplay: CMBYN
Cinematography: Dunkirk
Prod Design: Shape of Water
Costume: Phantom Thread
Song: Greatest Showman
Score: Shape of Water
Editing: Dunkirk
Sound editing: Baby Driver
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Make up: Darkest Hour
Foreign film: The Square
Animated: Coco
*My predix gives 3 films 3 Oscars each – 3B / Shape/ Dunkirk. 2 for Darkest Hour 1 for Get Out,
1 for Phantom Thread, 1 for CMBYN, Only Best Picture candidates empty handed Lady Bird and The Post. But that could turn on a dime – if Greta wins or Metcalf. That said; Best Picture could still go any which way. I’m predicting 3B for the two powerhouse performances and being one of the most provocative films of the year. It’s hard to ignore. My concern about Shape is the fantasy/sci fi element. Get Out – the horror/comedic element. Under preferential voting who knows how the genre films will fare.
Truly fascinating year. I’ve been watching this circus for decades and it is quite a unique year in terms of the spread of films and both the obstacles and strengths that the majority of them bring; and in equal measure making it difficult to see where it ends.
Or maybe GET OUT will do 6 quads.
I agree that Metcalf could happen because I, TONYA underperformed with the Academy. If Manville wins BAFTA, she could certainly become the sudden BSA frontrunner, too.
I feel like Supporting Actress is the only acting prize still in play.
Picture seems very difficult to call, still. My gut says THREE BILLBOARDS, but if SHAPE wins BAFTA, I’ll switch to that. If DUNKIRK wins, who knows what that means… GET OUT definitely feels like the dark horse, yet still feels possible, for sure.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/three-billboards-inspired-protest-miami-calls-marc-rubio-1085786
A strong sign that THREE BILLBOARDS is hitting the zeitgeist.