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I’m a gamer, always have been.

Predictions Friday — What Will the BAFTA Bring?

The British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTAs) are coming this weekend. The betting odds, believe it or not, have Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri taking both Best Film and Best British Film. I’m not so sure about that. I’m thinking a different movie will win Best Film — maybe and probably The Shape of Water. I suppose that Three Billboards could win both — I can’t really get a read on anything this year, to be honest, but I am wondering how the BAFTA might influence the race on the eve of Oscar voting. Here are some scenarios to work through.

  • If Three Billboards does very well, with one week of Oscar voting coming up, you can expect there to be massive amounts of think pieces and protests, probably enough to snuff out whatever remains of its chances. It’s mostly been left alone because it’s not seen as a threat but if it comes out a big winner it will become a bigger target.
  • if Get Out or Lady Bird win in original screenplay, over Shape of Water and Three Billboards, that’s a big deal for either of those movies.
  • If Dunkirk surprises and wins big in Picture and/or Director we can see that movie suddenly as a formidable competitor right when final Oscar voting begins.

Let’s go through them, shall we? You have no idea how much I want to predict Paddington 2 to win British Film. But I won’t.

2017 NOMINATIONS
(presented in 2018)

BEST FILM
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, Marco Morabito, Peter Spears
DARKEST HOUR Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski
DUNKIRK Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
THE SHAPE OF WATER Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale — Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh — Jazz Tangcay

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
DARKEST HOUR Joe Wright, Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski — Tangcay
THE DEATH OF STALIN Armando Iannucci, Kevin Loader, Laurent Zeitoun, Yann Zenou, Ian Martin, David Schneider
GOD’S OWN COUNTRY Francis Lee, Manon Ardisson, Jack Tarling
LADY MACBETH William Oldroyd, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly, Alice Birch
PADDINGTON 2 Paul King, David Heyman, Simon Farnaby
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin — Stone, Flores

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
THE GHOUL Gareth Tunley (Writer/Director/Producer), Jack Healy Guttman & Tom Meeten (Producers)
I AM NOT A WITCH Rungano Nyoni (Writer/Director), Emily Morgan (Producer)
JAWBONE Johnny Harris (Writer/Producer), Thomas Napper (Director)
KINGDOM OF US Lucy Cohen (Director)
LADY MACBETH Alice Birch (Writer), William Oldroyd (Director), Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly (Producer) — Stone, Flores, Tangcay

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
ELLE Paul Verhoeven, Saïd Ben Saïd — Flores
FIRST THEY KILLED MY FATHER Angelina Jolie, Rithy Panh
THE HANDMAIDEN Park Chan-wook, Syd Lim
LOVELESS Andrey Zvyagintsev, Alexander Rodnyansky
THE SALESMAN Asghar Farhadi, Alexandre Mallet-Guy — Stone, Tangcay

DOCUMENTARY
CITY OF GHOSTS Matthew Heineman
I AM NOT YOUR NEGRO Raoul Peck
ICARUS Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
AN INCONVENIENT SEQUEL Bonni Cohen, Jon Shenk
JANE Brett Morgen — Stone, Flores, Tangcay

ANIMATED FILM
COCO Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
LOVING VINCENT Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Ivan Mactaggart
MY LIFE AS A COURGETTE Claude Barras, Max Karli

DIRECTOR
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Denis Villeneuve
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Luca Guadagnino
DUNKIRK Christopher Nolan
THE SHAPE OF WATER Guillermo del Toro — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Martin McDonagh

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
GET OUT Jordan Peele — Tangcay
I, TONYA Steven Rogers
LADY BIRD Greta Gerwig
THE SHAPE OF WATER Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Martin McDonagh — Stone, Flores

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME James Ivory — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
THE DEATH OF STALIN Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, David Schneider
FILM STARS DON’T DIE IN LIVERPOOL Matt Greenhalgh
MOLLY’S GAME Aaron Sorkin
PADDINGTON 2 Simon Farnaby, Paul King

LEADING ACTRESS
ANNETTE BENING Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
FRANCES McDORMAND Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — Stone, Tangcay
MARGOT ROBBIE I, Tonya
SALLY HAWKINS The Shape of Water — Flores
SAOIRSE RONAN Lady Bird

LEADING ACTOR
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS Phantom Thread
DANIEL KALUUYA Get Out
GARY OLDMAN Darkest Hour — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
JAMIE BELL Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET Call Me by Your Name

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
ALLISON JANNEY I, Tonya — Tangcay
KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS Darkest Hour
LAURIE METCALF Lady Bird
LESLEY MANVILLE Phantom Thread — Stone, Flores
OCTAVIA SPENCER The Shape of Water

SUPPORTING ACTOR
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER All the Money in the World
HUGH GRANT Paddington 2
SAM ROCKWELL Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
WILLEM DAFOE The Florida Project
WOODY HARRELSON Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

ORIGINAL MUSIC
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Benjamin Wallfisch, Hans Zimmer
DARKEST HOUR Dario Marianelli
DUNKIRK Hans Zimmer — Flores
PHANTOM THREAD Jonny Greenwood
THE SHAPE OF WATER Alexandre Desplat — Stone, Tangcay

CINEMATOGRAPHY
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Roger Deakins — Stone
DARKEST HOUR Bruno Delbonnel
DUNKIRK Hoyte van Hoytema — Tangcay
THE SHAPE OF WATER Dan Laustsen — Flores
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Ben Davis

EDITING
BABY DRIVER Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Joe Walker
DUNKIRK Lee Smith — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
THE SHAPE OF WATER Sidney Wolinsky
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Jon Gregory

PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Tangcay
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
DARKEST HOUR Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
DUNKIRK Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
THE SHAPE OF WATER Paul Austerberry, Jeff Melvin, Shane Vieau — Stone, Flores

COSTUME DESIGN
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST Jacqueline Durran — Tangcay
DARKEST HOUR Jacqueline Durran
I, TONYA Jennifer Johnson
PHANTOM THREAD Mark Bridges — Stone, Flores
THE SHAPE OF WATER Luis Sequeira

MAKE UP and HAIR
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Donald Mowat, Kerry Warn
DARKEST HOUR David Malinowski, Ivana Primorac, Lucy Sibbick, Kazuhiro Tsuji — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
I, TONYA Deborah La Mia Denaver, Adruitha Lee
VICTORIA & ABDUL Daniel Phillips – Tangcay
WONDER Naomi Bakstad, Robert A. Pandini, Arjen Tuiten

SOUND
BABY DRIVER Tim Cavagin, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater — Tangcay
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Mark Mangini, Mac Ruth
DUNKIRK Richard King, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo, Mark Weingarten — Stone, Flores
THE SHAPE OF WATER Christian Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Nathan Robitaille, Brad Zoern
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Gerd Nefzer, John Nelson — Tangcay
DUNKIRK Scott Fisher, Andrew Jackson
THE SHAPE OF WATER Dennis Berardi, Trey Harrell, Kevin Scott – Stone
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Nominees
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES Nominees — Stone, Flores

EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
DANIEL KALUUYA — Tangcay
FLORENCE PUGH
JOSH O’CONNOR
TESSA THOMPSON
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET — Stone, Flores