We’ve never seen anything like this year’s Oscar race, and probably not in the ways that you might think. On the one hand, the Academy is working to build itself into the voting body it wants to be, which is to break free from its past, free from what Harvey Weinstein and Miramax shaped it into, free from it being solidly white, and free from being solidly male. It wants to still be relevant and vital in the modern era where everything is changing so fast. Big movies are getting bigger. Franchises are producing movies like Black Panther to erase the stigma of what we think about when we think about superhero movies. With both black writers and directors in the race, and a woman in those categories, it looks like they are becoming the change they seek.
There is something else happening, and that something is shifting the comfortable ground we’ve all become too accustomed to walking on. We are a divided nation under Donald Trump. There isn’t a day when those of us on the Left aren’t scrambling to regain some of the power that’s been seized from us, regain the upper hand, some amount of control. This dismantling of the titanic liberal left has been a long time coming, was well orchestrated, and had an end goal in mind — the revolution happened, but it happened on the Right.
One of the ways we exert control now is by policing our own side, running ourselves through purity tests to make sure we’re as right as we can be, to never offend anyone, to out those who threaten to keep the village pure and righteous. We do this on the Left because we can’t do it on the Right. So much so that all we seem able to accomplish now is to watch movies get targeted, shunned, exiled. We believe that this will somehow bring us closer to enlightenment, further away from Trump. The evil that was birthed the day he was elected can’t ever be let out because if any one of us shows even the slightest hint that we’re like him, we too become suspect. We could be that evil too.
And so it is with this fear that the strangest Oscar race in my twenty years covering it is coming to its long last exhale. In ten days it will be a story to be told in retrospect. Lessons learned. We put a lot of investment in our ability to see things before they happen, to know the unknowable. We’ve built a whole industry around it, putting value in those who can guess right, or guess the upset, or fall in line with the status quo. We’re shamed when we’re wrong, celebrated when we’re right. We all know on some level that this no way to evaluate something as subjective as art. It was one thing when films were horses in a race, or players in Survivor. It’s a whole other thing when films become political candidates. Which is least offensive? Which is most pure?
What I like about the frontrunners in this year’s Oscar race is that they’re all offensive in their own ways. While some bend towards justice — The Shape of Water, Get Out — others bend in a different direction, shining a light on a path not yet known — Three Billboards and Lady Bird. In three of these movies, women are the anchors. Women drive the stories. Women are nominated for Best Actress in three films that might win Best Picture. We can’t forget about the movies that spring from a different time in history, a better time perhaps, when we could say with certainty that we all knew who the heroes were. Even Trump supporters would have known. We can all agree that we fought on the right side in World War II. Dunkirk and Darkest Hour, and even The Post remind us of the heroes we once were.
The only pure hero in the acting categories predicted to win is Gary Oldman playing one of the most influential heroes of all time, Winston Churchill. What can be said about the others? Alison Janney as a twisted, dark, alcoholic mother who pushes her daughter Tonya Harding to achieve great things, to shake the trappings of poverty, of being born as an undesirable. Janney, playing against type, illustrates perfectly the underneath — people many of us not only don’t notice but would quickly sweep into the dustbin on Twitter in hopes of eradicating them from our species. Even poor Tonya Harding can’t escape our pointing finger — SHE’S A TRUMP SUPPORTER someone once screamed, as if our focus on someone who voted for Trump means that we have invested in the evil and thus, we ourselves must be purged.
Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell portray two of society’s discards inflicting violence for irrational reasons on people who don’t deserve it. The dentist hardly deserved to have his thumbnail drilled through, not to mention the billboards salesman being beaten and thrown out a window. That these actors could go there, that they could even attempt to look at imperfect, erratic, dangerous people who are supercharged with rage is what makes them stand out. There are only so many ways to play pious and good. Actually, there is just one way.
There is an element in our rating of art this year that lives in fear of letting that evil in, the evil we fear every day of our lives, that our country will surrender to Trump and undo all that Obama and previous Democratic leaders struggled for decades to build as the reshaped our nation for better equality. We stand bewildered and shaken to watch come undone all that we loved about ourselves and our country while Obama led us for eight years — our beacon of hope for a united future. I don’t know if art can survive in a sanitized environment. Jordan Peele’s Get Out shows us that no matter how we build our facades, our legacies based on an original sin will be exposed one way or another. Get Out dares to hold up a mirror even to the most woke among us and asks us to think about who we are vs. who we say we are.
Greta Gerwig, a likable person, chose to tell a story about an unlikable girl who breaks all of the rules because she can’t really do it any other way. She clearly wishes she was someone else, with a different name and a different house, a different boyfriend, a different town. She runs from who she is until she finally realizes that who she is is just the starting point. While it might seem like this is not that weighty compared to the other themes, it is its own quiet revolution when you look at how millennials are kind of blowing up America, starting with its origin story.
Only one film, of those that CAN win, has no ambiguity about good or bad, right or wrong and that’s Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water — which pulls no punches in launching a direct attack at Donald Trump’s brutal immigration policies. It is perhaps subtle, and you might not make the connection until you listen to Del Toro speak. As a Mexican, he’s right up there with Vicente Fox in terms of calling out Trump’s racist policies and rhetoric towards immigrants. Even still, wouldn’t you know that our culture finds offense in nothing so much as Sally Hawkins’ sexuality. It weirds them out that she finds sexual satisfaction in the creature from the black lagoon. Maybe it even weirds them out that she masturbates. But in a culture that rejects her — because of her age, because of her occupation, or because she can’t speak — the amphibian asset SEES HER. The Shape of Water is a true story of love, of finding that one connection in a million where you can be seen and understood. It aims its weapon right at Trump’s heart.
We’re down to the 11th hour here, as voters must now decide which film they can live with as their favorite. The stats still say Three Billboards has this thing in the bag, and that it could win on the first round — how many other movies can you think of that won the Audience Award at Toronto, the Globe for Picture and Screenplay, Actor and Actress, SAG Ensemble plus Actor and Actress AND the BAFTAs for both British Film and Film? I can tell you with certainty that it’s never happened. Only four times since 2000 has BAFTA and SAG agreed: Slumdog Millionaire, Return of the King, The King’s Speech, and Argo. Those are some first round winners you can be sure. But. But. But.
“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”
“Thing is, I think both 3B and Crash are most definitely about something. And are actually saying something, and in a fairly coherent/convincing way. Not as coherent or convincing as the best movies out there, but enough to still be pretty good. When it comes to Crash, so did Ebert, and others. Clearly, there are plenty of critics that think the same thing about 3B. Evidently, the majority don’t agree with you that it’s offensive trash, otherwise its Metacritic rating would be way lower. Even if they’re overrating it, it can’t be by that much. Maybe, I don’t know, they’re not all assholes or idiots… Just saying… 🙂 You have to distinguish between your read/opinion of the movie and what it’s saying, and other people’s. Both are just as valid – not only yours is.”
What is Three Billboards saying? And don’t tell me it’s violence begets violence and forgiveness. That’s hilarious coming from a film that’s awash with violence and where none of the characters show any remorse for their actions. These are horrible people and they never learn a lesson because, despite what the over the narrator might, this is the way they live their lives. First of all, how is the Dixon character presented to the audience? Is he really a bad guy? how is he a bad guy? He may be the antagonist of Mildred just like Willoughby at the beginning but he presented mostly as a comical and ignorant character. Such character are not usually reviled characters and are, in fact, more likely to get sympathy. His racism is not presented in a way to portray him as bad. We are merely informed about it, but we are never allowed to see it. People are more likely to have stronger reaction to something when they are showed rather than just hearing about it. The only moment where the Dixon character reaches revilement is when he brutally beats an innocent man. Why is that? because we see it in from of our eyes on the screen. I was a big fan of Ebert so I am happy to say that he wasn’t completely wrong on “Crash”. It failed, but it failed because it went to places that few dare to go. The biggest difference between Three Billboards and “Crash” is that the latter tried to tackle racism and prejudice in a serious manner while the latter trivialises it and all the other big issue it deals with.
“Another difference between you and me is I judge a movie close to 0% for it political views. Not 0%, but way, way closer to that than most people. Movies are art, not politics. Making them about politics automatically means you’re not being subjective when judging them, which means you can’t claim to know what their artistic value is or isn’t, in my opinion. Others see it differently, Sasha included. I have no problem with that. But I see it like I see it, and that’s why I have no problem with 3B and enjoy/admire it for its many qualities that, as far as I’m concerned, have nothing to do with politics.”
I don’t know if I can say I am not biased or that I don’t have a blinkered view of certain things. After all, we are only humans. We see thing subjectively whether we care to admit it or not. Some people might be more sensitive to certain things, but that’s why we have discussions and we need these discussions: To understand where others are coming from and whether we are wrong. I haven’t suffered discrimination, yet I am very sensitive to it and hate it very much. Some might call me a hypocrite for complaining about this film when a big fan of “South Park”. But I say to that, I can accept that kind of show because it’s not real. SP is not trying to be serious or trying to be this Zeitgeist film that’s trying to win the Oscar BP. I still wouldn’t like it, but I would be less critical of it if it weren’t up for BP. When a film uses big themes or talks about big issues, it’s fair to talk about how it uses them or deals with them. I think you may have a point when the politics is outside the film but when the politics in inside the film, it is unavoidable to talk about it.
“Definitely not to the extent to which you make it sound. There are maybe 2-3 moments like that, but I know of far more beloved movies that have such problems too, and I think trashing 3B but not also all of those is unfair.”
But I don’t think that is the case with the Academy. I don’t think they would, for example, be pleased to reward a film that is considered racist. Whether think it is racist is different question but they do care about themes and politics of the films they pick. How am I making it about politics when it is addressing highly contentious political issues? When you concede that it trivializes police brutality, especially if you are someone who claims to care about those, then, I am sorry to say, but you’ve lost the argument. Art is subjective, of course, and all opinions are valid but that isn’t to say that they are equal. If we look art only in terms of aesthetics, then yes. But that’s not what art is. At its core, art is highly political.
“That’s hilarious coming from a film that’s awash with violence and where none of the characters show any remorse for their actions.”
Not all movies have to be literal in how they make their point(s).
“Some might call me a hypocrite for complaining about this film when a big fan of “South Park”. But I say to that, I can accept that kind of show because it’s not real.”
Three Billboards isn’t real either.
“SP is not trying to be serious”
Not at all sure why you think 3B is necessarily trying to be serious. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. You think it is, I rather think it isn’t. It has serious themes, but so does South Park, and that doesn’t make it serious. 3B was placed in comedy at ACE, for example, so it’s very valid to look at it as a dark comedy.
“or trying to be this Zeitgeist film that’s trying to win the Oscar BP.”
That’s a label only awards watchers have placed on it. No evidence they were trying to be either of those things when they made it.
“When you concede that it trivializes police brutality”
I don’t, but I don’t want to get into details because – see below! I have no interest in feeding this discussion, especially three days before the Oscars. 🙂
“Art is subjective, of course, and all opinions are valid but that isn’t to say that they are equal.”
There are no degrees of subjectivity. Art either is subjective, or isn’t. If we accept that it is, then, yes, all opinions on it are precisely 100% equal.
“At its core, art is highly political.”
Politics is also subjective. Speaking of which, I think it’s best for both of us that we don’t go further down the path this discussion is taking us on… We really don’t need to be going into the Oscars debating the political aspects of Three Billboards – I’ve never really had any interest in this kind of discussion, neither about this movie, nor any other, so that would achieve nothing more (on my end) than to put me in a bad mood before the ceremony (precisely because I would feel like I’m wasting my time on something I don’t really want to be doing), which would just be silly for me to allow.
Good luck with your predictions and I hope whatever happens you can accept that it’s just the Oscars and they don’t really mean that much! 🙂 At least their winners don’t… Just as I’ll have to accept that if The Shape of Water wins. Which I will, should it come to that. (I mean, I accept it a priori, anyway.) I’ll be annoyed for a few days, but then I’ll get back to the rest of my life and the many other things I enjoy, and forget all about it soon enough. Until next year. I think it’s silly to care too much what wins Best Picture, beyond the statistics of it and trying to get your prediction right. Once you have, or haven’t, you draw your conclusions and move on.
And even if you think the winner they picked is sending a very bad message to society, or whatever, well… you still can’t do anything about it. And I’ve always thought it was counterproductive to pay any mind to things you can’t change whatsoever. (Part of why I don’t do politics. One vote doesn’t mean shit, ever, and I in no way feel it’s my duty to become a politician – thus effectively allowing society to decide what I do with my life, instead of my doing that, and choosing something I actually like -, so that I can make some actual changes, so, yeah, I just don’t care, instead. It’s about as effective as caring, but a lot less time-consuming. Guess that’s maybe another difference between you and me that explains why I like Three Billboards and you don’t. I perhaps have a more cynical view of the world, so something like 3B is right up my alley… Though, again, I don’t love it either – I just think it’s really good.)
Let cut to chase beyond gentle soothing words any oscar member who may happen quietly read our comments online here leading to final oscar vote let remove sugar coating and appeasement to accepting oscars choices so i ask you ehat film do YOU genuinely believe is best picture this yeat forget the ” acceptance of oscar being how they see themselves at your expense principle” what do YOU yourself believe is best film biggest cinematic achievement film public most care about this year? Beyond political meanderings of oscar and did thry get list of nominees for besy pic right?
I go first DUNKIRK or darkest hr. Or the Post i accept in that order in best picture now u turn people go!
Ranking the Best Picture Nominees for the 90th Oscars (2017):
…..
1.) Phantom Thread
2.) Dunkirk
3.) Lady Bird
4.) Get Out
5.) The Post
6.) The Shape of Water
7.) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
8.) Call Me by Your Name
9.) Darkest Hour
Did you also vote for my simulation, or should I count this ranking? Or neither? 🙂
Let cut to chase beyond gentle soothing words any oscar member who may happen quietly read our comments online here leading to final oscar vote let remove sugar coating and appeasement to accepting oscars choices so i ask you ehat film do YOU genuinely believe is best picture this yeat forget the ” acceptance of oscar being how they see themselves at your expense principle” what do YOU yourself believe is best film biggest cinematic achievement film public most care about this year? Beyond political meanderings of oscar and did thry get list of nominees for besy pic right?
I go first DUNKIRK or darkest hr. Or the Post i accept in that order in best picture now u turn people go!
Ranking the Best Picture Nominees for the 90th Oscars (2017):
…..
1.) Phantom Thread
2.) Dunkirk
3.) Lady Bird
4.) Get Out
5.) The Post
6.) The Shape of Water
7.) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
8.) Call Me by Your Name
9.) Darkest Hour
Did you also vote for my simulation, or should I count this ranking? Or neither? 🙂
Oh…geez here we go again another oscar race of mediocrity that will only end up in missed self sabotage self inflicted open gaping bloody woumd by oscar on itself …riddled with the ” social conscience ” that hollywood themselves have abundance of double standards they unashamedly display to us the real people that determine best judge of best movies of year along with minority of more educated independendently minded film critics ( no longer includes new York times, l.a. film critics and d.c. film critics for one.
No! Fact is oscar embrace filmmaker who back channel commentary is most anti- trump or as sasha puts it comes with massive admission ” the left is shoring itself against esyablished right wing movement in capitol hill”.
And i like to point out del toro is on verge of turning his work of brilliance into just another stealthily politically crafted mouthpiece against trump. I sorry to have fantasy film align so foolishly with political pospositioning sees it oen filmmaker diminish light of it oen pure achievement. Del toro will be certaij to lose more fans than he gain out of this. I guarantee you all this. Outside activist rage fury of political direction battles of USA silent majority would be left astounded .
Dunkirk darkest hr or the post would not win. These films not just politics the fillmakers respect setting understand it to respect it as sheer cinematic brilliance. If anything with the Post it justified to position itself witj politics of contect of it setting of story it telling after all u kmow given it a Spielberg film material is respected fpr what it is his goals in his films crystal clear and he understands film better than all contenders combibed to understand true hest films stay focused on their original setting of story not be hijacked by activist far left or far right ideology .
For this reason ” the post” pleased to say i finally saw is easily better than shape of water which is increasingly u wolf in sheep clothing that sasha admitted that fact proves this point. Del toro has underestimated undermined originak intention of his film a love stpry infused eith setting tension and rivalry between 2 superpowers in cold war . Del toro misread public appetite for true masrerpirce and settled for activist mediocrity . Very disappinted lot og people are in del toro ONLY reason he win best director is how forcefully he scewed his film to pander to political far left . Not a achievement to be proud of i fear for him
How does The Shape of Water pander to the political left?
So Del Toro is Riefenstahl now?
And you “guarantee” us “all of this”?
Can a film just be a good or bad film without pandering to libtards and con-men?
I remember one year WALL-E got similar accusations by the right for promoting liberal fascism. LIBERAL FASCISM.
JUst. Stop. It.
We are not interested in your personal politicL leanings.
Not just my view buddy perhaps you should read article before u assume i giing on facts
Why don’t you ask Sasha , she clearly recognises it as a political movie ; obliquely political or allegorical
No no you got it all fundamentally wrong. No offence i dont sprak in double touch take time which u clearly dont to see what i saying i never said zero tolerance to films with implied activist references but big difference between one as cinema expressionist art form and one that drivrn entirely as story as rrsponse direct ro issues of day huge difference and ones that films that are former are much more rememvered rhan latter. So 3 bullocks and gitly bird will bw forgotten evrn if thry win best pic.
Del Toro is accused of copying the film from a 1969 play and Jeunet’s Delicatessen. He may be done, especially for Best Director.
Oh REALLY? You serious? You have a link to back up this fact? I believe you but it quite unbelievable thrn that Shape is in as high regard as it is at oscars ouch !! No agreed if this is true best director nom where it at as far as good as it desrrves to get for del toro u have a link mate?
This story has been out there for weeks. And, before that the one about a foreign short. Hasn’t done a lick of damage, let alone it being “done”.
We’re talking an update of a Beauty and the Beast tale – hardly so original and unique that any one source, be it a play or a short film – could be considered THE inspiration.
Well actually taking a idea from far superior classic movie means shape will lose all important conservative vote. That matters. How on earth it entered original screenplay when it been accused is beyond me. Regardless of guilty or not that does not justify oscar oversight yet again and recklessness in abandoning due careful process. Do they understand that shape is far less original screenplay then darkest hr was? It outrage . Most of you who understand 2bat true original screenplay is knows it! And though shape is only accused it all making of smear campaign to give it a edge over competitors. Oscar can ill afford to drag themselves in mud before wider audiencr.. there ratings well below whqt used to be decade ago. Hopeless
Most of the votes are already in. And, more importantly, being accused is not the same as being guilty.
Del Tori is done because he’s been accused of plagiarism?
Do you know how many filmmakers have been accused of plagiarism in history?
Have you read the plagiarism claims and how ridiculous it was?
If anything, Jeunet came off as the self serving loser here.
I’m not crazy about the shape of water but Del Toro is a better director than Jeunet will ever be and is far from done.
Oh…geez here we go again another oscar race of mediocrity that will only end up in missed self sabotage self inflicted open gaping bloody woumd by oscar on itself …riddled with the ” social conscience ” that hollywood themselves have abundance of double standards they unashamedly display to us the real people that determine best judge of best movies of year along with minority of more educated independendently minded film critics ( no longer includes new York times, l.a. film critics and d.c. film critics for one.
No! Fact is oscar embrace filmmaker who back channel commentary is most anti- trump or as sasha puts it comes with massive admission ” the left is shoring itself against esyablished right wing movement in capitol hill”.
And i like to point out del toro is on verge of turning his work of brilliance into just another stealthily politically crafted mouthpiece against trump. I sorry to have fantasy film align so foolishly with political pospositioning sees it oen filmmaker diminish light of it oen pure achievement. Del toro will be certaij to lose more fans than he gain out of this. I guarantee you all this. Outside activist rage fury of political direction battles of USA silent majority would be left astounded .
Dunkirk darkest hr or the post would not win. These films not just politics the fillmakers respect setting understand it to respect it as sheer cinematic brilliance. If anything with the Post it justified to position itself witj politics of contect of it setting of story it telling after all u kmow given it a Spielberg film material is respected fpr what it is his goals in his films crystal clear and he understands film better than all contenders combibed to understand true hest films stay focused on their original setting of story not be hijacked by activist far left or far right ideology .
For this reason ” the post” pleased to say i finally saw is easily better than shape of water which is increasingly u wolf in sheep clothing that sasha admitted that fact proves this point. Del toro has underestimated undermined originak intention of his film a love stpry infused eith setting tension and rivalry between 2 superpowers in cold war . Del toro misread public appetite for true masrerpirce and settled for activist mediocrity . Very disappinted lot og people are in del toro ONLY reason he win best director is how forcefully he scewed his film to pander to political far left . Not a achievement to be proud of i fear for him
How does The Shape of Water pander to the political left?
So Del Toro is Riefenstahl now?
And you “guarantee” us “all of this”?
Can a film just be a good or bad film without pandering to libtards and con-men?
I remember one year WALL-E got similar accusations by the right for promoting liberal fascism. LIBERAL FASCISM.
JUst. Stop. It.
We are not interested in your personal politicL leanings.
Not just my view buddy perhaps you should read article before u assume i giing on facts
Why don’t you ask Sasha , she clearly recognises it as a political movie ; obliquely political or allegorical
No no you got it all fundamentally wrong. No offence i dont sprak in double touch take time which u clearly dont to see what i saying i never said zero tolerance to films with implied activist references but big difference between one as cinema expressionist art form and one that drivrn entirely as story as rrsponse direct ro issues of day huge difference and ones that films that are former are much more rememvered rhan latter. So 3 bullocks and gitly bird will bw forgotten evrn if thry win best pic.
Honestly, this is the point in the race I’ve been fantasising a lot about what changes I would’ve made.
So I propose a hypothetical game – the category change.
You remove one actor in each of the performance categories and three films from Best Picture and swap them with the performances of your choice and films of your choice respectively.
I’ll start:
Best Picture: Swap Three Billboards, Darkest Hour, The Post for The Florida Project, Blade Runner 2049, and Mudbound.
Best Actress: Swap Meryl Streep for Daniela Vega
Best Actor: Swap Gary Oldman for Tom Hanks (Not a great category this year)
Best Supporting Actress: Swap Alison Janney for Tiffany Haddish (I know it’s an unpopular opinion but I really didn’t like Alison in that movie. Felt one-dimensional)
Best Supporting Actor: Swap Sam Rockwell for Arnie Hammer
Wow looking at that list I realise I do not like the likely wins for the performance categories.
Oh, a fun game we haven’t done before. I would remove Darkest Hour, The Post, and (sorry you many fans) CMBYN from BP in favor of I, Tonya, Mudbound, and The Big Sick. I would replace Washington with Franco, Hawkins in TSOW with Hawkins in Maudie–is that cheating? Harrelson with Stuhlbarg, Spencer with Holly Hunter.
As long as you keep Hawkins in – I will forgive you for CMBYN snub 🙂
For Picture:
Take out The Post, Darkest Hour, and Three Billboards, and put in Blade Runner 2049, The Killing of a Sacred Deer, and A Quiet Passion.
Actress: Swap Meryl Streep for Cynthia Nixon (or Vicky Krieps, or Jessica Chastain).
Actor: Swap Denzel Washington* for Colin Farrell in Killing of a Sacred Deer.
Supporting Actress: Swap Mary J. Blige for Raffey Cassidy in Killing of a Sacred Deer.
Supporting Actor: Swap Woody Harrelson or Christopher Plummer for Barry Keoghan or Will Poulter.
*Washington is my #6, so I don’t mind his being nominated at all, it’s just the other four are in my top 5.
For Picture: Swop Darkest Hour w The Florida Project.
Director: I wld like to see Baker or Luca inside but the current line-up is quite perfect.
Actress: Swop Meryl w Vicky Krieps or Cynthia Nixon
Actor: Swop Washington w Franco or Jackman (Logan)
Supp Actress: Swop Spencer w Hong Chau
Supp Actor: Swop Plummer w Hammer or Stuhlbarg
For Picture: Swap Darkest Hour and Lady Bird for The Florida Project and Mudbound
Director: Drop Peele and Gerwig for Baker and Guadanigno
Best Actress: I’d probably keep this line up, MAYBE swap Meryl for Daniela Vega or Vicky Kreips
Best Actor: Swap Gary Oldman and Denzel Washington for James Franco and Jake Gyllenhaal
Best Supporting Actress: Swap Mary J. Blige for Tatiana Maslany (lol a pipe dream) and Octavia Spencer for Holly Hunter
Best Supporting Actor: Swap Harrellson/Plummer/Dafoe for Stuhlbarg/Hammer/Jason Mitchell
Overall I am pleased with the acting nominations, really the only undeserved nominations in my opinion are Harrellson and Washington, although neither are egregious! Darkest Hour absolutely does not deserve a Best Picture nomination though
Best picture : Swap Darkest hour, 3Bills with Coco, Mudbound and add The Florida Project as the 10th nominee.
Best Director : PTA out (very very tough choice) and Luca in for CMBYN
Best Actor : No change, except may be put Rockwell in lead somehow?
Best Actress : Daniela Vega or Vicky Krieps or Brooklyn Prince instead of Meryl Streep. but Meryl Streep’s Katharine Graham is sooooo likable.
Best Supp actor : Out goes Rockwell (to the lead), Woody Harrelson, Christopher Plummer and are replaced by Lil Rel from Get Out, Armie Hammer (CMBYN), Michael Sthulbarg (CMBYN and TSOW). Sorry Ray Romano (tough year)
Best Supp actress : Hong Chau instead of Octavia Spencer
Best Orig Screenplay : 3bills out and Coco in
Best Doc : Any one of them out (the ones I saw are deserving though) and Jane in. It is horrible that they ignored Jane.
Best editing : 3 bills out and Coco in
Best Cinematography : Darkest Hour out and Sayombhu of CMBYN in.
I also loved Blade Runner, The Big Sick — but honestly could not kick out The Post. It is a well made, VERY important movie for this day and age.
Best Picture: Swap The Shape of Water, Lady Bird and The Post for mother!, The Disaster Artist, and Blade Runner 2049
Best Actress: Swap Frances McDormand (because she doesn’t want it) for Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
Best Actor: Swap Timothee Chalamet for James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Best Supporting Actress: Swap Laurie Metcalf for Kelly Marie Tran (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
Best Supporting Actor: Swap Christopher Plummer for Lil Rel Howery (Get Out)
I could swap out plenty more actors and actresses.
Best Picture: Swap Three Billboards and Darkest Hour for A Ghost Story and The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki
Best Actress: Frances MacDormand out, Vicky Krieps in
Supp. Actor: Woody Harrelson and Richard Jenkins out, Barry Keoghan and Lil Rel Howery in
Orig. Screenplay: Three Billboards, Shape of Water and Big Sick out, Killing of a sacred deer, Phantom Thread and The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki in
Dentists… Who needs’em?!…
I want “Get Out” to win for Best Picture. Last week I was rooting for ‘Three Billboards..”
What changed?
Both films are brilliant. Last month when HBO ran “Get Out” on it’s various channels, I was able to sit through “Get Out” multi-times without any hesitation. I’m not sure if I could do the same for “Three Billboards”.
People don’t consider replay value nearly as much as they should when choosing BP. It’s one of the main things I consider.
It shouldn’t be that much of a main thing for me. I watched Schindler’s List only once and it’s in my top 10 all time. I watched The Devil Wears Prada and Home Alone multiple times and United 93 and Reversal of Fortune once.
I watch Schindler’s List at least once a year.
Cool! To me, both seem very rewatchable – but I guess I’ll get to test that out soon enough, as I’m planning on seeing 3B for the second time before the Oscars. Get Out I know for sure is, indeed, because it was just as great/better the second time.
Let’s hope you are able to see its massive problems the second time you watch it. That film should not win end of. Stats or no stats. It’s most flawed and problematic film since “Crash” and doesn’t deserve even a smidge of recognition.
You have to be aware, though, that I was a Crash supporter. 🙂 And, while I did see its flaws more clearly the second and especially third times I saw it (the latter being quite recent), I still, even now, don’t think they’re anywhere near as huge as its detractors do, and I still think it’s a rather good movie, even if very much below average for a BP winner. And I think 3B’s flaws are even less serious/significant (at least after that first viewing), and it’s definitely (though not by a huge margin because, again, I still think Crash is a good film, overall) a better movie. As long as a movie’s flaws aren’t enough to take me out of it/its story, if it compensates through other qualities, I’ll still like it. And I honestly think that’s the right way to look at it. A movie is both more than its biggest flaws, and than its biggest qualities. It’s the sum of all of that, and how well it works overall. Crash and 3B work for me. Not as brilliantly as others, but they still very much work. Of course, they don’t, at all, for many others, yourself included. And I can totally understand that. 🙂
A movie for which the flaws did take me out, completely, and which also didn’t compensate enough, was, for instance, The Last Jedi.
I think a movie is more than whether you enjoyed watching it or not. You may think a few is entertaining but to me a BP winner has to be more than and has to be about something. technical flaws aren’t the only issue with either films and to be honest 3B is way more technically flawed which is why I suspect it failed to get BD which Haggis did. Even in their screenplays, “Crash” is better and won every major award and did better among critics despite its low MC score. Three Bullshit didn’t won a single award from NBR, NYFCC and LAFCA. I think it got too high an MC score because of early success but subsequent review seems to suggest it’s not that well liked, at least among the bigger critics. It ranked way too low for a BP winner. The issue with film is how it portrays race, dwarfism, sexism, domestic violence, vigilantism and constant use of vulgar language. The film literally breaks down all the rules and things just happen because they happen. It’s quite surreal, really. “Crash” got criticised because it tried tackle racism and prejudice in an amateur way. Three Bullshit isn’t even trying to tackle racism or prejudices (if anything, it seemed to revel in it, judging from it’s Nigger torturing “joke” and constant midget “jokes”), but merely uses them as plot about racist cop on his path to redemption. Kareem Abdul Jabbar said : “Focusing on how the Oscar-nominated movie trivializes racist police brutality misses its bigger message”. Which is quite a stupid thing to say, really. How can we focus on anything else after that? What message could be bigger than that? There aren’t many issues bigger than that in the US and yet this film which seems to have a lot blind spot on many issues is the BP winner? The problems with Three Bullshit are profound and I have never been upset by a BP nominated film like this ever. I wasn’t this upset with “Crash” and I was mostly upset because it better films. I was young and didn’t fully understand what it was trying to show and how bad it was. But even so Three Billboards offends very deeply and I just wish it didn’t even get nominated let alone win. It’s even making look McDormand differently because I can’t stand her ghastly character in this terrible film. I want to remember her Marge, a wonderful and heroic Coens’ character.
Get Out is worth a bunch of Razzie Awards. It was schlock of the nth degree. Nothing extraordinary or memorable. The only thing going for it is that it’s about whitey victimizing blacks.
Who remembers Brendan Fraser from the Oscar-winning ”Crash” and ”Gods and Monsters”? He also was the hero of ”The Mummy” movies. If you’re wondering where he’s been, GQ has done a compassionate profile of him in which he says he was once groped by a former president of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. He says that incident was one of many reasons why he disappeared from Hollywood for a time. Now Fraser’s been making a mini-comeback …
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/brendan-fraser-says-he-was-groped-by-former-hfpa-president_us_5a8ee6f3e4b005bb0fef3283
He will always be George of the Jungle in my eyes.
That’s Sir Dudley Do-Right to me.
You’re all wrond. He’s Encino Man!
There will be NO BUT this time!!! I can assure you of that.
The Left has been struggling to accept Trump and has fought with vengeance with absolutely no results to speak of trying to undermine his presidency. They tried the Russian collusion thing and it didn’t work. They tried portraying him as incompetent. And now they are going back to calling him racist. IT AIN’T WORKING!!!
At first there was the #metoo movement and the assured 100% winner in Lady Bird. Then came the anti-Trump racist immigration policies film – The Shape of Water. BTW, how does giving 1.9 million ILLEGAL immigrants a path to US Citizenship equate to Racist policies is completely beyond me but that’s beside the point. It’s an utterly disgraceful statement and I have a huge problem with it.
And finally, now, the final push is for the “woke” people that somehow know everything and preach to everybody pretending to know what is right and what is wrong,
But you know what – just like TRUMP dominated and destroyed the status quo, changed the mindset of millions of Americans and is improving their lives, Three Billboards will stamp that stamp of approval against all odds – and finally destroy the remnants of the last bastion of Liberal Dogmatic thinking that has been plaguing so many of us.
I don’t think that liberals understand what it is like to actually have a different point of view and immediately being labeled as a fascist or a racist. It’s such a disgraceful tactic that it sickens me. Yes, this year’s Oscars have become EXTREMELY political and yes – there is no great undeniable film that should overcome these petty disputes. But since the liberals are asking for this war, they will have it and WHEN Three Billboards triumphs, they’ll be put back in their place.
Three Billboards tries to evoke a response of solidarity towards everyone. It tries to make people come together and understand that EVERYONE has inherent prejudices and people can be racist because of their background and their upbringing.
But the Left is just too stuck up and they just can’t have it. Well, tough. It’s WINNING!
While some might agree with some of the points you are attempting to make, you might consider the loud and obnoxious way in which to relate these ideas to people, as well as the space in which you are attempting to voice these ideas. In this space, it is foolhardy.
Point taken. I am just so frustrated with all these guilt-tripping and guilt-shaming for people that like Three Billboards.
“Three Billboards will stamp that stamp of approval against all odds” – except the awards odds of course.
You complain about the Left yet you sound so angry, triggered, and wildly emotional.
Trump is a rude and unprofessional person who mostly enjoys attacking people on Twitter since he has massive ego and thin skin.
Also I love Billboards but not because its some pro Trump piece. Its too complex for a simplistic take. Although I realize I’m in the minority about Billboards here.
Well, that’s the power of it – it can be liked and loved by all – IF it is allowed to. So many people don’t want to allow that to happen. Why?!? See, how they are using the props from the film to try and force a dialogue on gun reform.
And it’s working. Trump has changed his stance on gun reform and so are many Republican leaders. The Democrats should be jumping with joy over this but because it’s Trump – they won’t.
If you actually believe he’s changed his stance on gun control you are dangerously naive
Yes he changed his stance begrudgingly ( while the NRA reminds its members that the people who wants this are evil awful people) for the time being.
Still the minute Trump said fine people on both sides after Charlottesville when one side was a White Power rally it seemed to me its very clear the kind of moral compass he has which is either messed up or nonexistent.
Still I love the complexities of Three Billboards in all the characters. I’m fine with someone not liking it as long as they don’t like it for specific reasons within the film as many people on the board have pointed out quite well. And while I see their points I still love the film.
I could fire back that Trump’s desire to all but end LEGAL immigration is a sign that he’s not down with non-white folks
However since you post the exact same bilge about 3B and Get Out on every damn thread I’ll just stop and say that your concern is duly noted.
“The Left has been struggling to accept Trump “
Nope. The Left will never accept Trump, and none of us are effing struggling to try.
We’re preparing to indict him and his sleazy family. Not for collusion. For treason.
We’re working to destroy his family name and financially ruin them.
We plan to make sure many of the Trump mob and perhaps some of the Trump clan themselves die in prison.
Wait and see, Vily. Tick Fucking Tock.
3 Billboard is a dark brutal nihilistic messy masterpiece along the same lines as Hieronymus Bosch.
Instead of giving any Americans a vague fuzzy dream of “redemption,” it should depress the hell out of us that writers and directors from other countries see us this way: as an endless shithole cycle of grief, hatred, sillyass fuckups, bitterness and senseless violence.
3 Billboards is to America what Beasts of No Nation is to West Africa.
This is the stark ugly filthy viciousness that America had become under Trump, and it stuns me to see Republicans embrace this movie as lesson that liberals need to learn.
Anyone happy with any part of the America depicted in 3 Billboards is a sick fuck.
If it wins then it’s the bleakest Best Picture in Oscar history. Bravo? Why not. We deserve it.
Even though what it shows us about the Trump mentality is nauseating, I can’t help but gasp in awe that McDonagh or anyone else has the balls to rub our noses in it.
It’s an audacious nightmarish hellscape work of art. It’s America suspended in a jar of piss.
It’s bizarre to watch you drool over it, Vily.
This is a random thought I’ve had while immersed in the comments here on AD. For a site run by a woman with strong feminist views, the posters here seem to be about ten times more males than females. (I know one cannot always tell from screen names, but many here do use their first names.) Are those who participate in the polls and contests more evenly divided than the comments would indicate? I can see that Oscar stats might resemble sports stats as more of a guy thing to discuss.
From my outsider gender perspective I think it’s a bit of that, a bit of Hollywood being a boy’s club, and also a difference between the people that would comment vs. just reading the articles.
Ina, as far as readership goes, it’s impossible to say. We see tons of women are registered for the newsletter, but the discussion pages are obviously more of a boys club.
We know this for sure: Almost all movie site forums are thick with men and slim on the presence of women.
There’s an Oscar site I know where women are so scarce and LGBT folk are so unseen it makes me wonder if everyone who’s not a crusty middle-aged man has been banned there. I won’t name the site. It’s not near here, it’s elsewhere.
I would estimate my followers on Twitter are mostly women, close to 75%. But that circle of friends isn’t a good measure because they are roughly 75% political pals and 25% movie mavens.
Whenever we run our final Awards Daily Oscar Ballot Project, there are optional questions about gender, geographic location, and gender identity. So in a few days we will have a more definite answer for you — as least in regard to the ballot voters.
“I won’t name the site. It’s not near here, it’s elsewhere.”
I see what you did there.
There used to be a lot more women posting here back in the day.
I’ve been here since 2010. Is back in the day the early 2000s?
Four score and seven years ago… No there were people like that Fassbender fan and Africa. I remember there being a lot more I just can’t remember all their names. Maybe Gail killed them all and stole their life force.
most of the voters are male anyway
“The only pure hero in the acting categories predicted to win is Gary Oldman playing one of the most influential heroes of all time, Winston Churchill.”
Wow. I just… wow. I mean there is tone deaf and then there is denying his role in a famine that killed millions.
There were good people on both sides of that famine.
Your comment nailed it.
Sasha, and most yanks, still don’t get that Churchill ain’t the hero they think he is. Sure, he smashed the Nazis, but his views, from the ’40s, are in the same ballpark as Trump.
But he had those views back then, which is much more understandable than Trump having them now. (Not to say they’re understandable in the absolute – just relative to this.)
Plus he didn’t exactly show the greatest judgement in WWI
Yeah, Churchill was pretty much like Nigel Farage, just with a little bit of sense in his head to know that there was no negotiating with or cajoling Hitler. That alone makes him better than most politicians at that time, which says much more about the time than about Churchill.
It is possible that a man like Winston Churchill did terrible things to India and was also instrumental in saving England and all of Europe from the Nazi threat. It might surprise you to learn that people are complicated.
Oh please. I’m not the one lauding him as “one of the most influential heroes of all time”. Talk about black-and-white thinking.
He is both.
“pure hero”
He is both a hero and a villain. Most great men of history were not kind men. Churchill was a dinosaur in many ways, even back in 1930s Britain, and yet he was the man who saved the nation at a critical moment. It does not excuse his terrible legacy in India any more than said legacy erases the monumental good he did in Europe.
so then he’s not a pure hero
I never said that he was a “pure” hero. That would be OP. I have merely stated my piece on my own behalf.
My jaw dropped when I read that line. Pure hero my foot. I grew up in India, we remember what a monster Churchill was even if he is a saint/hero compared to Hitler. It is important to not get carried away while praising a historical figure.
One might argue, Churchill was good for his era. That is not true either, there were many folks in the British Parliament who understood the atrocities committed by the British against the colonies and spoke out against those atrocities. Churchill was not one of them.
[Very marginally off-topic:]
Having finally seen Phantom Thread yesterday, I can once again invite all of those willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and help us all better understand how this year’s race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot works, in general. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all who will, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes, these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) One interesting thing I will point out about the previous years’ results (which can be checked out, in detail, at the bottom of this post), is that the movie most people consider likely to have come in second place in the Best Picture race at the Oscars has finished in exactly second place in these every single time, for the last four years in a row, so perhaps this is something to look out for this year as well… So, without further ado…
7th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
Please rank the Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you want each of them to win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rank them according to your own tastes and wishes instead, of course)!
I would say, ideally, a voter should have at least seen all of the following, which are the only ones I find likely to win or come close to winning this simulation – or win at the Academy Awards themselves -, based on what I’ve heard about other, similar polls taken this year, and so on: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (I’ve listed them in alphabetical order, so as to minimally influence voting.) And maybe also Phantom Thread. I’m thinking this would be best because I expect even Academy voters, in this day and age, will pretty much have all seen at least the 2-3 (and, in this year’s case, maybe 4-5) movies that have the best chances of winning the Oscar in any given year, before completing their ballots. Beyond this, there are no guidelines. Vote as you like, but rank all of those first six I mentioned, please, don’t leave them off your ballot, or I might decide to not count it!
Voting will be open, I suspect, for no more than 3-4 days – I think there are solid reasons to do it this way. If somebody tells me they’re about to go see the last key contender they haven’t seen yet, and then want to vote, then I’ll, of course, extend the deadline for another day or two, like I did in previous years.
My ballot for this year (with a fairly obvious strategic placing of a certain movie, which 99% won’t help said movie at all, but also can’t hurt/alter anything significant):
1. The Post
2. Dunkirk
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Shape of Water
9. Call Me By Your Name
(My mother won’t be voting this year, as she just hasn’t seen enough of the nominees, and hasn’t seen The Shape of Water or Call Me By Your Name, of the strongest ones.)
The previous years’ results:
2011 The Social Network — details not saved
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty —– 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her —————— 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on 1st round 1st places
2015 Birdman ————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight ———— 41-32 over La La Land
1. CMBYN
2. The Shape of Water
3. Phantom Thread
4. Three Billboards
5. Dunkirk
6. The Post
7. Get Out
8. Lady Bird
9. Darkest Hour
1 Call Me By Your Name
2 Phantom Thread
3 Dunkirk
4 Lady Bird
5 Shape of Water
6 Get Out
7 Three Billboards
8 The Post
9 Darkest Hour
1. Three Billboards
2. Get Out
3. Darkest Hour
4. The Post
5. Phantom Thread
6. CMBYN
7. The Shape of Water
8. Lady Bird
9. Dunkirk
shape
phantom
dunkirk
go
cbyn
3b
ladybird
post
dh
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
Lady Bird
Three Billboards
Shape of Water
CMBYN
The Post
Get Out
Darkest Hour
1. Get Out
2. Dunkirk
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Phantom Thread
5. The Shape of Water
6. The Post
7. Lady Bird
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Darkest Hour
My ballot for this year. What I like,
1,2. The Shape of Water/Call Me By Your Name
3. Ladybird
4,5. Dunkirk/GetOut
6. Phantom Thread
7. The Post
8. Darkest Hour
9. 3Bills
What I think (hope) might happen.
1. The shape of water
2. 3Bills
3. Getout
4. CMBYN
5,6. Dunkirk and Ladybird
7,8. The Post and Phantom Thread
9. Darkest Hour
Well, for the purposes of this simulation, you need to give exact rankings. 🙂 Otherwise I’ll have to assume The Shape of Water is your #1 and Dunkirk your #4, whereas if you rank them yourself you might decide otherwise…
Correct. TSOW is #1 and Dunkirk is #4. Thank you Claudiu
Thank YOU for voting! 🙂
1. The Shape of Water
2. Call Me By Your Name
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Dunkirk
6. The Post
7. Phantom Thread
8. Darkest Hour
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1 Call Me By Your Name
2 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
3 Phantom Thread
4 Dunkirk
5 Lady Bird
6 The Post
7 The Shape of Water
8 Get Out
9 Darkest Hour
1. Lady Bird
2. three Billboards
3.Get Out
4. Dunkirk
5. Call Me By Your Name
6. Darkest Hour
7.Shape of Water
8. The Post.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
9. Phantom Thread
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Get Out
3. The Shape Of Water
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Phantom Thread
7. The Post
8. Three Billboards
9. Darkest Hour
1. Get Out
2. Dunkirk
3. Phantom Thread
4. Three Billboards
5. Lady Bird
6. The Post
7. Call Me by Your Name
8. The Shape of Water
9. Darkest Hour
1. Three Billboards
2. Dunkirk
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Phantom Thread
5. The Shape of Water
6. Get Out
7. Lady Bird
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Post
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Dunkirk
3. Phantom Thread
4. Lady Bird
5. Three Billboards
6. Get Out
7. The Shape of Water
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing
4. Call Me by Your Name
5. Lady Bird
6. Get Out
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
1. Call me by your Name
2. Phantom Thread
3. Three Billboards
4. Ladybird
5. Get Out
6. Dunkirk
7. The Post
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Shape of Water
1.Get Out
2.The Shape of Water
3.Three Billboards
4.Phantom Thread
5.Call Me By Your Name
6.Darkest Hour
7.Durnkirk
8. The Post
9.Lady Bird
1 – Phantom Thread
2 – The Shape of Water
3 – Call Me By Your Name
4 – Dunkirk
5 – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6 – Get Out
7 – Lady Bird
8 – The Post
9 – Darkest Hour
1. Phantom Thread
2. Lady Bird
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Dunkirk
5. Get Out
6. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. The Shape of Water
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
1. Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
3. Get Out
4. The Post
5. Ladybird
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. Phantom Thread
8. Darkest Hour
9. Three Billboards
Looking forward to loathing Mute later tonight.
Didn’t like Moon? Ideally, for me, it would be a return to that kind of form for this filmmaker, but not expecting that much.
I liked Moon when I first saw it, but revisiting it was such a non-event for me. Jones isn’t my kind of guy, more importantly though, Netflix’s track record is starting to scrape the gutter and I am losing a lot of faith in their originals.
While I disagree about MOON. I watched it several times and still love it. I agree with NETFLIX’s originals. They’re making too much too fast and most things just look bad. I’ll at least watch MUTE though.
I loved Moon and still do but frankly I’m becoming more and more certain that Jones was a one hit wonder.
Also while they have done some great films (Mudbound) I’m getting more cynical about Netflix films.
Still haven’t seen Dunkirk and CMBYN, so my ranking for the remaining 7 goes like this:
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Post
6. Darkest Hour
7. Phantom Thread
Phantom Thread being last doesn’t mean I didn’t like the movie. In fact, I actually really liked all of those.
And for the first time in a while, I was impressed with every actor nominated I’ve seen so far.
If there’s something these movies got right, it’s the great acting.
This year is such a meh year for me. I don’t care about most of the nominees. I love CMBYN and Phantom Thread. I like Lady Bird and The Shape of Water. Beyond this, I just don’t give a damn. And I’ve seen all nine nominees. I even sat through Three Billboards three times!
TERRIFIC
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Phantom Thread
VERY GOOD
3. Lady Bird
GOOD
4. The Shape of Water
MIXED
5. Get Out
6. Dunkirk
AVERAGE
7. The Post
8. Darkest Hour
I ABSOLUTELY HATE THIS ONE
9. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Exceeded Expectations
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Lived Up to Hype
Call Me By Your Name
Get Out
Three Billboards
Dunkirk
Overrated
Lady Bird
Darkest Hour
WTF
The Post (I have seen enough of Meryl Streep sitting in chairs and speaking about important things to last me the rest of my natural life)
I’ve seen 6 of the 9 and liked them all… I think the lowest score I gave any of them is 7/10. And that’s usually because of little to no replay value hurting their scores. All of them have been very good/ well made films though.
Honestly, this is the point in the race I’ve been fantasising a lot about what changes I would’ve made.
So I propose a hypothetical game – the category change.
You remove one actor in each of the performance categories and three films from Best Picture and swap them with the performances of your choice and films of your choice respectively.
I’ll start:
Best Picture: Swap Three Billboards, Darkest Hour, The Post for The Florida Project, Blade Runner 2049, and Mudbound.
Best Actress: Swap Meryl Streep for Daniela Vega
Best Actor: Swap Gary Oldman for Tom Hanks (Not a great category this year)
Best Supporting Actress: Swap Alison Janney for Tiffany Haddish (I know it’s an unpopular opinion but I really didn’t like Alison in that movie. Felt one-dimensional)
Best Supporting Actor: Swap Sam Rockwell for Arnie Hammer
Wow looking at that list I realise I do not like the likely wins for the performance categories.
Oh, a fun game we haven’t done before. I would remove Darkest Hour, The Post, and (sorry you many fans) CMBYN from BP in favor of I, Tonya, Mudbound, and The Big Sick. I would replace Washington with Franco, Hawkins in TSOW with Hawkins in Maudie–is that cheating? Harrelson with Stuhlbarg, Spencer with Holly Hunter.
As long as you keep Hawkins in – I will forgive you for CMBYN snub 🙂
For Picture:
Take out The Post, Darkest Hour, and Three Billboards, and put in Blade Runner 2049, The Killing of a Sacred Deer, and A Quiet Passion.
Actress: Swap Meryl Streep for Cynthia Nixon (or Vicky Krieps, or Jessica Chastain).
Actor: Swap Denzel Washington* for Colin Farrell in Killing of a Sacred Deer.
Supporting Actress: Swap Mary J. Blige for Raffey Cassidy in Killing of a Sacred Deer.
Supporting Actor: Swap Woody Harrelson or Christopher Plummer for Barry Keoghan or Will Poulter.
*Washington is my #6, so I don’t mind his being nominated at all, it’s just the other four are in my top 5.
For Picture: Swop Darkest Hour w The Florida Project.
Director: I wld like to see Baker or Luca inside but the current line-up is quite perfect.
Actress: Swop Meryl w Vicky Krieps or Cynthia Nixon
Actor: Swop Washington w Franco or Jackman (Logan)
Supp Actress: Swop Spencer w Hong Chau
Supp Actor: Swop Plummer w Hammer or Stuhlbarg
For Picture: Swap Darkest Hour and Lady Bird for The Florida Project and Mudbound
Director: Drop Peele and Gerwig for Baker and Guadanigno
Best Actress: I’d probably keep this line up, MAYBE swap Meryl for Daniela Vega or Vicky Kreips
Best Actor: Swap Gary Oldman and Denzel Washington for James Franco and Jake Gyllenhaal
Best Supporting Actress: Swap Mary J. Blige for Tatiana Maslany (lol a pipe dream) and Octavia Spencer for Holly Hunter
Best Supporting Actor: Swap Harrellson/Plummer/Dafoe for Stuhlbarg/Hammer/Jason Mitchell
Overall I am pleased with the acting nominations, really the only undeserved nominations in my opinion are Harrellson and Washington, although neither are egregious! Darkest Hour absolutely does not deserve a Best Picture nomination though
Best picture : Swap Darkest hour, 3Bills with Coco, Mudbound and add The Florida Project as the 10th nominee.
Best Director : PTA out (very very tough choice) and Luca in for CMBYN
Best Actor : No change, except may be put Rockwell in lead somehow?
Best Actress : Daniela Vega or Vicky Krieps or Brooklyn Prince instead of Meryl Streep. but Meryl Streep’s Katharine Graham is sooooo likable.
Best Supp actor : Out goes Rockwell (to the lead), Woody Harrelson, Christopher Plummer and are replaced by Lil Rel from Get Out, Armie Hammer (CMBYN), Michael Sthulbarg (CMBYN and TSOW). Sorry Ray Romano (tough year)
Best Supp actress : Hong Chau instead of Octavia Spencer
Best Orig Screenplay : 3bills out and Coco in
Best Doc : Any one of them out (the ones I saw are deserving though) and Jane in. It is horrible that they ignored Jane.
Best editing : 3 bills out and Coco in
Best Cinematography : Darkest Hour out and Sayombhu of CMBYN in.
Best Picture: Swap The Shape of Water, Lady Bird and The Post for mother!, The Disaster Artist, and Blade Runner 2049
Best Actress: Swap Frances McDormand (because she doesn’t want it) for Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
Best Actor: Swap Timothee Chalamet for James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Best Supporting Actress: Swap Laurie Metcalf for Kelly Marie Tran (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
Best Supporting Actor: Swap Christopher Plummer for Lil Rel Howery (Get Out)
I could swap out plenty more actors and actresses.
Best Picture: Swap Three Billboards and Darkest Hour for A Ghost Story and The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki
Best Actress: Frances MacDormand out, Vicky Krieps in
Supp. Actor: Woody Harrelson and Richard Jenkins out, Barry Keoghan and Lil Rel Howery in
Orig. Screenplay: Three Billboards, Shape of Water and Big Sick out, Killing of a sacred deer, Phantom Thread and The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki in
raves pouring in for love simon lol
Is this true or a fantasy?
No, real, I’ve seen a couple critics give very positive remarks on social media. I’m actually very much looking forward to it and the Argentinean version lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nOpykxXqzU&t
Three Billboards winning award after award is like that bad cold you just can’t afford to get at the moment, then you get it, you’re out of NyQuil, you can barely breathe for weeks, & then the cold lasts longer than you expected & turns into bronchitis but you just have to get through it.
Funny you just described what i struggling with…well maybe it simply that we all literally getting sivk and tired of oscars excuses lame weak underwhelming to public of how to use social commentary in real world to excuse thrm from doing EVERYTHING they can to avoid embracing their true AMPAS values in choice for best picture. Maybe moat of our immune systems are being eaten away by relentless social self justified thought police that get in to our heads…and hrnve make us literally sick …coincidence i become very sick as oscar race near it end perhaps?
Or…. you know the Best Picture is a reflection of our thoughts about our culture at the moment the way they have in many other eras such as the Vietnam War, World War II etc. Just because you seem to find yourself on the wrong side of where history will end up (like the people who were cheering FOR the Vietnam War at the time) doesn’t mean the awards have changed.
Yea well might be minority of opinions here….no idea what on earth so called ” side of history ” u talking about. Dont know bout you but i know for fact it oscar uslf and minotity of others who wrong side of history. If indeed contenders reflecting our culture all you say explain to me how even ” best “oscar ratings are well below par what they used to be? No buddy. History ought to tell you that trawling through social activist pool of movies only marginalizes disilussions silent majority i am sorry to tell you audience public ratings of oscar are public way of saying that they fed up with oscar not taking inti account other films that matter. Ratings in decline more than ever in oscars history publiv support overall for oscars choices make people more divided disconnected from oscars delusions of grandeur through choices they make. So you i wonder no difference between history of trend of oscar from 1950’s through to 1980’s ? I strongly suggest you look at differencr reflected by ratings in contrast to today and learn understand how and why major decline in public support for todays film.choices as favourite pushing more and more people away.
Answer is simple if you care to work it out u insist i on” wrong side of history ” so? I assuke u can answerqiestion easily ey?
– Oscar ratings down due to combination of more entertainment options as well as movies that no longer reflect the public popularity as before. Audiences don’t give out Oscars members of the Academy do which reinforces my point about why some win. You want popular movies that win awards go find the Perople’s Choice Award message boards. And the wrong side of history is always the one fighting against freedom, equality and the better side of our natures. (AGAINST segregation, racism, sexism, homophobia, etc.) Name ONE civil rights movement that failed in the long run. THAT is the wrong side and it is usually indicated by the people pouting abut the success of the other.
No face it oscar ratings are down because because contrary to your misinformed perception of history . At point in 1990’s THAT infamous outcome in race of 1998 specifically audirnces have turned off increasingly that you ackbowledge ratings have dropped onmy reinforces my point sorry to say. Befpre late 1990′ s you had measured, balanced careful choices and get a grip buddy your argument on peoples choice falls on deqf ears here. I talking bout more informed and less reactive more educated and informed critics who know whar ampas truly stands for. Furthermore history will prove all anti- trump white noise is reglection of merely short term trend that is result of left wing activist and extreme right wing fault lines . True best pictures do NOT pander to far left or far right. They the filmmakers have gar superior understanding to your ilk you activist noisemakers…thry understand true best film if as you say it merely reflecrion on society thrn reflect it thriugh telling visually inspiring stories with truly inventive non- plaguirized non short term reactive responses. Greatest art work is not solely defined by pop culture u honestly think i dont get that nor is it solely sefined by literal reactional responses to social problems today can u do you dare refer to films like ben hur, sound of music, casablanca, titanic, the godfather. ? your even less informed bout cinematic in contrast to activist reality than i thought! These films fotmes abstract echo of times without direvtly responsing to issues. Honestly anyone who thinks girlie bird or 3 bullocks is ttuly best picture ot better than dunkirk/ darkest hr or the Post is kidding themselves. Much like over half of films oscar chose public could not care less about. Incidentally i advise you again to understand through u argument in favour of reactionary issue driven films how hollywood was founded ehat it principles are about. Thry callrd AMPAS for a reason surprise surprise one of it majpr founding fathers was expansion of first major migration from Europe to states . If u dont understwnd simple irrefutable fact that such major immigration at very dawn of hollywood itself and u insiat public are last consideration to aiding influencing oscars decision stop trying tell us u so called percrption of u being on right side of history.
No buddy short term reactionary movies have not stood test of time . Ie: is anyone here in blog still raving biut 12 years a slave, slumdog, million dollar baby, crash, even no country or argo? Yet we debate and praise films beyond thrir best picture years of gladiator, saving private ryan, hurt locker, kings speech and the departed. So trll me how convincingly this time your on right side of history ?
Yeah deliberately not using anaesthetic is stereotypical dentist torture, don’t know why people think that Frances’ character was in the wrong there.
I like the film. But her character repeatedly getting away with things by simply denying them was quite silly.
You mean like The Traitor and many of his cabinet, staff, backers and media sycophants…?
It is a complete misunderstanding of the preferential system to think a divisive film has to win in the first round. It doesn’t.
In Australia, we have situations where all other candidates might recommend voters preferences against the leading one, but there is “preference leaking” that is, the leading one picks up enough preferences from the other candidates to win.
3 B doesn’t have to win on round one. It just has to be far enough ahead, and pick up enough votes from other films, to win
I find this quite an odd analysis that 3Bs will win, given the Oscar Squad had it at #4 last week and Sasha has this at #2. Quite a flip.
Gold derby has almost flipped for 3Bs now
Shape 37.55
3Bs 36.55
Get Out 14
I think 3 Bs will win. Damn that SAG ensemble stat !!
OT: I never got around to posting this here, so here is my Top 25 of 2017…
1. Get Out
2. World of Tomorrow Episode II: The Burden of Other People’s Thoughts
3. Dunkirk
4. Kedi
5. A Ghost Story
6. The Square
7. Blade Runner 2049
8. The Killing of a Sacred Deer
9. Strong Island
10. Good Time
11. The Work
12. Faces Places
13. BPM (Beats Per Minute)
14. War For The Planet of The Apes
15. Call Me By Your Name
16. Phantom Thread
17. Wonder
18. Coco
19. Lucky
20. I, Tonya
21. Baby Driver
22. It Comes At Night
23. The Insult
24. Stronger
25. mother!
I like it very much! Obviously, there are things I disagree with, as well, but that’s inevitable.
Of the ones I’ve seen, Get Out, Dunkirk, BPM, War For The Planet of The Apes, Baby Driver and mother! are also in my current top 25, and several others are close. And Get Out and Dunkirk are at least in my top 7, probably higher. Haven’t seen your other top 3 entry.
shit i still havent seen wot2 bet i wouldnt have rescinded the category on my ballot had it seen it on time
$4.99 one week rental on Vimeo. Hertzfeldt’s writing is as prescient and cerebral as ever. There are a few scenes that are real gut punchers. No filmmaker has a better understanding of our modern world than Don.
Just gotta say….your writing, as ever…is brilliant. That’s all. ;-).
Greta Gerwig ripped off Real Women Have Curves. No one would care about Lady Bird if it had a brown cast, but because it has a whiny white girl front and center, we’re supposed to interpret it as some kind of “relatable” feminist statement? It’s not. It’s white privilege at its worst. The only POC in the movie gets accused of affirmative action by Lady Bird, and that’s pretty much all we see of him smh.
Something tells me you did not like Lady Bird.
Give it a break.
How appropriate in the year of Get Out that another contender is an example of white people taking credit and acclaim for black people’s work and culture.
Yeah, just like no one cared about Moonllight because it had a brown cast. STFU.
[As in previous years, I’m going to re-post this a few times – probably this one and one more – in this thread alone, for optimum visibility and to try to get as many voters as possible. I will also re-post it in other threads, later – only once per thread.]
Having finally seen Phantom Thread yesterday, I can once again invite all of those willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and help us all better understand how this year’s race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot works, in general. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all who will, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes, these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) One interesting thing I will point out about the previous years’ results (which can be checked out, in detail, at the bottom of this post), is that the movie most people consider likely to have come in second place in the Best Picture race at the Oscars has finished in exactly second place in these every single time, for the last four years in a row, so perhaps this is something to look out for this year as well… So, without further ado…
7th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
Please rank the Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you want each of them to win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rank them according to your own tastes and wishes instead, of course)!
I would say, ideally, a voter should have at least seen all of the following, which are the only ones I find likely to win or come close to winning this simulation – or win at the Academy Awards themselves -, based on what I’ve heard about other, similar polls taken this year, and so on: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (I’ve listed them in alphabetical order, so as to minimally influence voting.) And maybe also Phantom Thread. I’m thinking this would be best because I expect even Academy voters, in this day and age, will pretty much have all seen at least the 2-3 (and, in this year’s case, maybe 4-5) movies that have the best chances of winning the Oscar in any given year, before completing their ballots. Beyond this, there are no guidelines. Vote as you like, but rank all of those first six I mentioned, please, don’t leave them off your ballot, or I might decide to not count it!
Voting will be open, I suspect, for no more than 3-4 days – I think there are solid reasons to do it this way. If somebody tells me they’re about to go see the last key contender they haven’t seen yet, and then want to vote, then I’ll, of course, extend the deadline for another day or two, like I did in previous years.
My ballot for this year (with a fairly obvious strategic placing of a certain movie, which 99% won’t help said movie at all, but also can’t hurt/alter anything significant):
1. The Post
2. Dunkirk
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Shape of Water
9. Call Me By Your Name
(My mother won’t be voting this year, as she just hasn’t seen enough of the nominees, and hasn’t seen The Shape of Water or Call Me By Your Name, of the strongest ones.)
The previous years’ results:
2011 The Social Network — details not saved
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty —– 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her —————— 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on 1st round 1st places
2015 Birdman ————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight ———— 41-32 over La La Land
1. Call Me By Your Name
2.Three Billboards outside, Ebbing Missouri
3. The Shape of Water
4. Phantom Thread
5. Dunkirk
6. Lady Bird
7. Get Out
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
(Haven’t seen DH)
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Dunkirk
4. Phantom Thread
5. The Shape of Water
6. Lady Bird
7. Get Out
8. The Post
1. Three Billboards
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Get Out
5. Phantom Thread
6. Lady Bird
7. Call Me by Your Name
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
1. Get Out
2. The Shape of Water
3. Call Me by Your Name
4. Phantom Thread
5. Dunkirk
6. Lady Bird
7. Three Billboards
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
1) Get Out
2) Phantom Thread
3) Call Me By Your Name
4) The Post
5) Darkest Hour
6) Dunkirk
7) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
8) Lady Bird
9) The Shape of Water
1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. Get Out
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. Three Billboards
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Post
1. Dunkirk
2. Call Me By Your Name
3. Lady Bird
4. Three Billboards
5. The Post
6. Phantom Thread
7. Get Out
8. The Shape of Water
9. Darkest Hour
1. Phantom Thread
2. Get out
3. Dunkirk
4. Shape of Water
5. Darkest Hour
6. Three Billboards
My top 3 I rank as all excellent films and totally deserving the nominations, I only disliked Three Billboards very much.
(haven´t seen The Post, Lady Bird and CMBYN yet)
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Dunkirk
3. The Post
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. The Shape of Water
6. Darkest Hour
7. Lady Bird
8. Get Out
9. Phantom Thread
1. Three Billboards (Driving anger/controversy because it is too close to home. Angry people not really accomplishing anything but feeling good doing it)
2. Shape of Water (Beautifully filmed reinterpretation of the plot from ET with plot twist ending)
3. Get Out (Credit for doing a what is usually white done genre and giving it new relevance)
4. Dunkirk (Like another well done restaging of a familiar Shakespeare play)
5. Lady Bird (We’re quibbling with tiny score differences here)
6. The Post (Not allowed to be TOO obvious about “importance” these days)
7. Darkest Hour (One for the Baby Boomers)
8. Call Me By Your Name (At risk of my tribe kicking me out, I was bored)
9. Phantom Thread (Something the Method Acting cultists would have done back in my college theater program. Done well but ever so eye-roll inducing)
Cool! You must be the only other person besides me to have both Call Me By Your Name (same reason for me) and Phantom Thread (which I have two places higher because at least that one had some fascinating characters, I thought) in the bottom three of their rankings!… (I tally everything at the end, so I haven’t checked out most of the other votes yet – but I don’t remember seeing any besides us.)
I understand the CMBY support. I recall when there were almost NO films with positive LGBT representation so that when even really awful ones were released we all cheered wildly to ensure that more (and hopefully better ones would be made.) I am also often at cross purposes with myself. On one hand I defend a film that were it made with white/straight/male characters would pass mostly unnoticed in awards season are valid award choices (when done well). But then I see a CMBYN and I wonder if it would get any attention if the young man was a young woman who falls for the handsome young male intern. There were great parts of course. But often my finger itched to hit the fast forward button on my remote. Worth awards consideration because of my first set of views? Sure. Worth winning like some are breathlessly advocating? No.
I have no bias for or against LGBT representation (I generally have very few biases in life, I’m atypical and apolitical, and the few biases I do have I think I’m very aware of and admit to with no reservations), and I agree with you 100% – it’s a very well made movie, but not more so (or as much as) than the best of the rest this year. It deserves nods, but not wins except for screenplay and maybe actor. I wouldn’t give Chalamet the win, personally, but I was bored, and most people weren’t, and he was really good, I thought, so, maybe, with a movie one loves behind him, his performance shines even more. So I can understand giving him the win, at least from among the nominees.
Sorry I’m quite late voting, took me a while to sort out my final ballot before I voted in all but if these:
1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. CMBYN
4. Get Out
5. Dunkirk
6. 3 Billboards
7. Darkest Hour
8. Lady Bird
9. The Post
Late’s just as good as early! 🙂 I’m keeping it open until something like Monday night, anyway, at the request of someone from IMDb who said they were seeing the final key movies that day.
I thought Shape began to wobble after BAFTA, but that sleazy plagiarism hit the day after the voting started I think hands it BP
The Shape of Water will walk away with Director, Production Design and Original Score. I am sure that Three Billboards will win Best Picture in an Argo-type win.
I would have agreed with you, but the hit on Shape was so sleazy I think the film will get undecideds breaking towards it. Del Toro is really LIKED in the industry
We shall see.
Interesting… I can kind of see voters reacting that way (though it doesn’t strike me as anything close to guaranteed that they would, unless they already loved The Shape of Water), but I can’t imagine they’d do it en masse. I don’t think they would give it that much importance. Surely such accusations, even unjustified ones, happen fairly often!… Anyway, even if Shape does win, we’ll never know whether that was the reason, and it seems to me more like wishful thinking than sound logic to assume it might be.
In what is clearly a tight race you don’t need to change too many minds
But IS IT such a tight race?! 🙂 Three Billboards seems pretty beloved to me, despite its directing achievements not being as praised. If it’s tight, sure, but, again, I don’t necessarily agree that it WILL change anyone’s minds to such an extent as to all of a sudden put Shape ahead of Three Billboards when they weren’t before…
It was never that close ; 3 Bills was a runaway victor at BAFTA
guys, can u recommend shows…to give u an idea of my taste i just saw this chart and saw mindhunter is no.46 and i think its superior to everything above it except the vietnam war, k appreciate it, thanks
http://www.metacritic.com/browse/tv/score/metascore/year/filtered?year_selected=2017
Bryce, I’ve been raving about Babylon Berlin since last October (back then it was only broadcast in Europe without English subtitles, so I couldn’t follow the plot. But it already knocked me out, visually.)
A few weeks ago Netflix quietly dropped the first 16 episodes with English subs. And I can’t shut up about it.
Here’s me swooning about the last 15 minutes of episode 2:
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/962537723126059008
Babylon Berlin is a wonderful show. That nightclub scene in particular is simply fantastic filmmaking on all fronts. It is wonderful to see the beautiful city of Berlin finally receive attention for the era in which it was its greatest, before the scourge of the Nazis and the Soviets robbed it of its past and future.
You’re right. Mindhunter is miles above any other series of the past several months.
“Ridley Scott Says ‘Mindhunter’ is the Best TV Show on Air Right Now …
You and Ridley. Two of a kind.
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/960019365990141952
Thanks! I’m checking this out tonight 🙂
MINDHUNTER is the best show I’ve seen in years. I’m not a huge TV guy, but I was addicted in minutes and can’t wait for season 2.
Mosaic > everything on that list
I forgot about that. I need to see it. Few things have been as good as The Knick.
Bojack Horseman Season 4 was more impactful and memorable than most things on that list IMO. If you haven’t seen the show, bear in mind the first season starts slow, but it builds and builds in writing and character quality and creativity to the point where every season it has is my show of the year now.
You’re not the first to recommend this one to me!
DARK on Netflix is fvcking phenomenal! My favorite show is Mindhunter & Penny Dreadful, & I watched this after and was blown away!
Metacritic is not wrong, The Leftovers was not only the best television show of 2017, it was the best filmed entertainment — big screen, small screen, TV, film, comedy, drama — of the year. The fact that Carrie Coon didn’t have trophies thrown at her all season long is a travesty, she acts circles around this entire Best Actress lineup.
I’m just gonna concede this one and say it’s a me problem. I tried it twice, but it just wasn’t my tempo.
How far did you get? Because Season 1 is admittedly rough for a lot of people, but everyone unanimously agrees that Seasons 2 and 3 are some of the best television ever made.
I never got past 1 so maybe that’s it.
Yeah, you gotta keep pushing through. I would say just skip S1, but it lays a lot of groundwork and you’d miss some emotional resonance later on in the series if you do. Just power through if you can! I promise it will be more than worth it.
I want “Get Out” to win for Best Picture. Last week I was rooting for ‘Three Billboards..”
What changed?
Both films are brilliant. Last month when HBO ran “Get Out” on it’s various channels, I was able to sit through “Get Out” multi-times without any hesitation. I’m not sure if I could do the same for “Three Billboards”.
Who remembers Brendan Fraser from the Oscar-winning ”Crash” and ”Gods and Monsters”? He also was the hero of ”The Mummy” movies. If you’re wondering where he’s been, GQ has done a compassionate profile of him in which he says he was once groped by a former president of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. He says that incident was one of many reasons why he disappeared from Hollywood for a time. Now Fraser’s been making a mini-comeback …
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/brendan-fraser-says-he-was-groped-by-former-hfpa-president_us_5a8ee6f3e4b005bb0fef3283
He will always be George of the Jungle in my eyes.
That’s Sir Dudley Do-Right to me.
You’re all wrond. He’s Encino Man!
There will be NO BUT this time!!! I can assure you of that.
The Left has been struggling to accept Trump and has fought with vengeance with absolutely no results to speak of trying to undermine his presidency. They tried the Russian collusion thing and it didn’t work. They tried portraying him as incompetent. And now they are going back to calling him racist. IT AIN’T WORKING!!!
At first there was the #metoo movement and the assured 100% winner in Lady Bird. Then came the anti-Trump racist immigration policies film – The Shape of Water. BTW, how does giving 1.9 million ILLEGAL immigrants a path to US Citizenship equate to Racist policies is completely beyond me but that’s beside the point. It’s an utterly disgraceful statement and I have a huge problem with it.
And finally, now, the final push is for the “woke” people that somehow know everything and preach to everybody pretending to know what is right and what is wrong,
But you know what – just like TRUMP dominated and destroyed the status quo, changed the mindset of millions of Americans and is improving their lives, Three Billboards will stamp that stamp of approval against all odds – and finally destroy the remnants of the last bastion of Liberal Dogmatic thinking that has been plaguing so many of us.
I don’t think that liberals understand what it is like to actually have a different point of view and immediately being labeled as a fascist or a racist. It’s such a disgraceful tactic that it sickens me. Yes, this year’s Oscars have become EXTREMELY political and yes – there is no great undeniable film that should overcome these petty disputes. But since the liberals are asking for this war, they will have it and WHEN Three Billboards triumphs, they’ll be put back in their place.
Three Billboards tries to evoke a response of solidarity towards everyone. It tries to make people come together and understand that EVERYONE has inherent prejudices and people can be racist because of their background and their upbringing.
But the Left is just too stuck up and they just can’t have it. Well, tough. It’s WINNING!
While some might agree with some of the points you are attempting to make, you might consider the loud and obnoxious way in which to relate these ideas to people, as well as the space in which you are attempting to voice these ideas. In this space, it is foolhardy.
Point taken. I am just so frustrated with all these guilt-tripping and guilt-shaming for people that like Three Billboards.
“Three Billboards will stamp that stamp of approval against all odds” – except the awards odds of course.
You complain about the Left yet you sound so angry, triggered, and wildly emotional.
Trump is a rude and unprofessional person who mostly enjoys attacking people on Twitter since he has massive ego and thin skin.
Also I love Billboards but not because its some pro Trump piece. Its too complex for a simplistic take. Although I realize I’m in the minority about Billboards here.
Well, that’s the power of it – it can be liked and loved by all – IF it is allowed to. So many people don’t want to allow that to happen. Why?!? See, how they are using the props from the film to try and force a dialogue on gun reform.
And it’s working. Trump has changed his stance on gun reform and so are many Republican leaders. The Democrats should be jumping with joy over this but because it’s Trump – they won’t.
If you actually believe he’s changed his stance on gun control you are dangerously naive
Yes he changed his stance begrudgingly ( while the NRA reminds its members that the people who wants this are evil awful people) for the time being.
Still the minute Trump said fine people on both sides after Charlottesville when one side was a White Power rally it seemed to me its very clear the kind of moral compass he has which is either messed up or nonexistent.
Still I love the complexities of Three Billboards in all the characters. I’m fine with someone not liking it as long as they don’t like it for specific reasons within the film as many people on the board have pointed out quite well. And while I see their points I still love the film.
I could fire back that Trump’s desire to all but end LEGAL immigration is a sign that he’s not down with non-white folks
However since you post the exact same bilge about 3B and Get Out on every damn thread I’ll just stop and say that your concern is duly noted.
“The Left has been struggling to accept Trump “
Nope. The Left will never accept Trump, and none of us are effing struggling to try.
We’re preparing to indict him and his sleazy family. Not for collusion. For treason.
We’re working to destroy his family name and financially ruin them.
We plan to make sure many of the Trump mob and perhaps some of the Trump clan themselves die in prison.
Wait and see, Vily. Tick Fucking Tock.
3 Billboard is a dark brutal nihilistic messy masterpiece along the same lines as Hieronymus Bosch.
Instead of giving any Americans a vague fuzzy dream of “redemption,” it should depress the hell out of us that writers and directors from other countries see us this way: as an endless shithole cycle of grief, hatred, sillyass fuckups, bitterness and senseless violence.
3 Billboards is to America what Beasts of No Nation is to West Africa.
This is the stark ugly filthy viciousness that America had become under Trump, and it stuns me to see Republicans embrace this movie as lesson that liberals need to learn.
Anyone happy with any part of the America depicted in 3 Billboards is a sick fuck.
If it wins then it’s the bleakest Best Picture in Oscar history. Bravo? Why not. We deserve it.
Even though what it shows us about the Trump mentality is nauseating, I can’t help but gasp in awe that McDonagh or anyone else has the balls to rub our noses in it.
It’s an audacious nightmarish hellscape work of art. It’s America suspended in a jar of piss.
It’s bizarre to watch you drool over it, Vily.
I still feel it’s between 3B and LB. Probably come down to 2nds and 3rds.
But didn’t you say that Call Me By Your Name won your poll through first place votes alone? Since in this season a stat or two is going to be destroyed, why does Call Me By Your Name get left out of the conversation? It’s certainly more deserving than some of your proposed front runners and how interesting that a gay love story is no longer considered progressive. Oh right, they would need to be black or transgender or alien to matter.
> how interesting that a gay love story is no longer considered progressive
You should tell that to the Academy, since they are the ones who awarded Best Picture to La La Land last year.
I agree with you about the poll thing, especially because every film has something working against it in the Best Picture conversation. Obviously CMBYN has a lot going against it. But I think what is being forgotten is that CMBYN is the only film going into the Oscars with a guaranteed screenplay win. These polls are being chalked up as an internet bubble, and that well may be true. But it seems unwise to throw it completely out of the conversation. I don’t count it out at all.
Because the internet doesn’t vote for the Oscars.
“many of the people who rated CMBYN highly were actually older/conservative.”
But were they also actors? Or directors, or editors? Because those branches in the Academy or guilds didn’t even like it enough to nominate it for ensemble (Hammer / Stuhlbarg) / directing / DGA / editing / ACE. (All of which have very strong nomination stats attached to their names. And the last time a movie with anywhere near this many “misses” won BP was 1949, and even that one didn’t have this many. And it won BAFTA, so at least it had the British voters’ support within the industry. Not the case with Call Me By Your Name.) Also, maybe, were they producers? Even those didn’t like it more than The Shape of Water, we know that, since it lost the PGA to that movie. Those are, in short, the reasons. There are others, too. Like the fact that it got four nominations total, and a movie with that few hasn’t won since the early 1930s. (And a movie outside of the top 7 in the total nominations ranking has never won – this is a problem Get Out also has this year -, in 89 years of Oscar.)
The internet, meanwhile, were it to hold its own awards, with everybody voting, would 100% give it nods for directing, Hammer, Stuhlbarg, ensemble and probably also editing. And many others, I bet. Like for “Visions of Gideon”, in addition to “Mystery of Love”. As well as the “best production” prize, most probably, were that a category, like it is for the PGA, since it’s winning the preferential polls. That’s how big the difference is between how the industry has received it and how the internet sees it. If that’s not enough evidence it’s nowhere near winning BP, I don’t know what is… Like you say, the only reason it might have something like a 1-2% chance of winning, still, is that the others all have their problems too. But those (3B & TSOW) have one or two stats-significant problems, tops, compared to its eight or more. It’s just not enough of a reason to even give it that 1%, if you ask me. Which, to me, justifies not talking about it. If we should be talking about it, we should also be talking about The Post. That won NBR, after all! Those people also don’t vote for the Oscars, but so what?!
I could be proven wrong, and then you’ll laugh. Though you still won’t have predicted CMBYN officially yourself, to win Best Picture, I bet, so maybe you wouldn’t even be justified in laughing, just because you happened to champion a 1% movie one time, and it happened to win… (I’m not being confrontational – it doesn’t bother me one bit that you think it can win. I’m just saying, you’re not predicting it to win, so there isn’t really that much difference between you and the rest of the world, if any… Did I laugh when Moonlight won last year, because I had officially and publicly given it 26% chances to win? When 99% of the rest of the world were giving it almost no chances, and even many of those who did predict it probably would have claimed they didn’t really believe in it, and were just going out on a limb, had it lost? I didn’t. I felt a lot more right than most, as should you, if CMBYN wins, but I didn’t laugh or think I was some sort of genius. I’m not saying you would – but you did say you would laugh, at least…)
Call Me By Your Name isn’t in the conversation because it completely lacks any sort of precursor momentum and Sony Classic hasn’t done anywhere near enough marketing for it. It’s not because of your “black or transgender or alien” nonsense theory (if that transphobic conspiracy theory of yours was true, A Fantastic Woman would be nominated more, and Eddie Redmayne would’ve won for his disastrous performance in The Danish Girl)
As slimy as James Woods’ NAMBLA hit on the film was, I think their campaigners needed to come up with a better initial retort than semantics about age of consent law in Italy
“Disastrous.” Right.
On another note, since there’s been some talk that no SAG Ensemble winner that lost the PGA and DGA has ever won Best Picture without winning the WGA first (which is certainly true, but also, as I’ve been saying, irrelevant this year, with the SAG winner not being eligible for the WGA, especially since it looks like it would have been the stats favorite to win there), I’ll throw a similar observation of my own out there: since 2001, when BAFTA became an Oscar precursor for the first time, no PGA winner, irrespective of whether it won or lost the DGA, has won Best Picture without first winning either SAG Ensemble or BAFTA Best Film. Which The Shape of Water has been unable to do this year. (Not all PGA winners that won one of the two did go on to win Best Picture, of course, although 8 of the last 9 did – and 11/15 overall. 6/7 for the preferential years – La La Land is the only one that didn’t. So, it’s not sufficient to win the PGA and one of those two, but it looks like it might be necessary. It should also be noted that, unsurprisingly, the four PGA winners that managed to win both SAG and BAFTA during this 17-year span all won Best Picture.)
Three PGA winners have fallen to this rule so far: Moulin Rouge! (2001), Gravity (2013) – which even won the DGA, but also only tied for the PGA win – and The Big Short. The Shape of Water is, of course, a bit stronger than each of these, even going by these indicators alone, because it won the DGA and didn’t tie with any other movie for the PGA win, but, likewise, Three Billboards is at least a bit stronger than all of the SAG Ensemble winners to have not won the WGA and then lost BP so far (and much stronger than most of them, even taking the directing snub into account), so this “stat” is no more irrelevant than that one. (Personally, I think they’re both equally likely to be irrelevant, but the SAG-WGA one strikes me as even more at risk of being misleading in the context of this year’s race, for reasons I’ve already pointed out.)
So are you still predicting 3B or did you switch to Shape of Water? What do you think of Sasha’s point about the BAFTA/SAG combo?
Of course I’m still predicting Three Billboards. 🙂
“What do you think of Sasha’s point about the BAFTA/SAG combo?”
I was aware of those precedents. Good for Three Billboards, obviously…
I will not switch to The Shape of Water either now or at any later point, because it’s the winner my industry stats-only system predicts. There’s no reason to switch. That’s going to be my official prediction no matter what. It’s also currently my intuitive prediction, and I expect it to stay that way until Oscar night. (Not much left that could happen to change that.)
Can’t wait for this shit show to be over. I used to love Oscar Season. Now that it’s become Angry Political Hot Take Season, I just want it to go away.
Ken, hang in there buddy. This happens almost every year. The moment oscar telecast is over, (mostly) everyone is back to being friends and appreciating movies for what they are.
Yeah guys, I know. I know it’ll get worse. And I know that by Tuesday, the buzz surrounding Drumpf’s latest tweet will be louder than anything that happened during the Oscars.
But it still sucks.
🙂 Exactly.
Except for the winner, which gets torn apart almost no matter which of the nominees it was. 🙂
Brace yourself – it’s about to get a lot worse.
I find it amusing. All of these people are in one way or another, complicit with the dirty dealings of a cesspool industry. They can wear black in solidarity and stand up and loudly and proudly proclaim how they will not stand for abuse and mistreatment and then at the end of the night they will climb back into their limos and drive home to their McMansions and go about their lives in a happy little bubble they have created for themselves. They don’t believe a word they say – these words are for their audience. They are actors, through and through.
Exactly. My favorite move critic wrote a piece on Patreon recently about how George C. Scott famously denounced the Oscars, and that if actors REALLY want to take a stand on these issues, they should skip the show altogether.
I’ll be honest – I miss the times of the epic sweeps like Titanic or The Return of The King.
Nowadays, it’s always a stance for something or against something. I agree with you.
“Angry Political Hot Take Season”
🙂 Well put!
This is a random thought I’ve had while immersed in the comments here on AD. For a site run by a woman with strong feminist views, the posters here seem to be about ten times more males than females. (I know one cannot always tell from screen names, but many here do use their first names.) Are those who participate in the polls and contests more evenly divided than the comments would indicate? I can see that Oscar stats might resemble sports stats as more of a guy thing to discuss.
From my outsider gender perspective I think it’s a bit of that, a bit of Hollywood being a boy’s club, and also a difference between the people that would comment vs. just reading the articles.
There used to be a lot more women posting here back in the day.
most of the voters are male anyway
hallway/elevator showdown between wife and groff some of the best shit Fincher has ever directed…stunning.
I’m still leaning 3 BILLBOARDS – but, my faith is shaky. SHAPE seems to be such a juggernaut in many circles (full disclosure, it’s my 9th fave in a field of 9!), that it’s easy to see why many are saying it’s the slight frontrunner (Gold Derby, Guru’s of Gold, Hollywood elsewhere etc). I’m not the biggest BILLBOARDS fan (my #6), but, it at least has the patina of substance.
On Oscar night, if BILLBOARDS wins screenplay in a tough category with GET OUT and LADY BIRD, then I’ll feel fairly confidant of a win for Best Picture. If not….nail biter ’til Warren Beatty gets the corrected envelope.
In a showdown between 3 Billboards and Shape of Water, I guess my vote would be going to 3 Billboards (I rank it 7th) over Shape of Water (9th). It’s hard to get enthusiastic about that possibility. Fyi, my #1 is The Post, which is obvious roadkill and a guarantee that my ballot would be going to something else.
You and me both in the “Least objectionable” frontrunner to ‘root’ for race, eh? In my decades of Oscar watching, I’ve never been less enthusiastic for the frontrunners than this year. My #1 or #2 rarely wins, but, #6 and #9!? Eeek
If it was really such a juggernaut, wouldn’t MORE people think it’s the frontrunner? It’s not got even 50% of the pundits’ predictions on its side at Gold Derby…
The better argument for it is the preferential ballot. I don’t think it’s a juggernaut, but it might win for being the slightly less divisive of the only two that can win (if Get Out does turn out to not be as strong as many are assuming, that is.)
I was talking macro and not just the current odds. 13 Oscar nominations, lots of critics prizes, Guild awards (even winning costume over a movie ABOUT costumes!). Plus, it’s still ahead on most prognosticator sites and in Vegas.
“even winning costume over a movie ABOUT costumes”
🙂 Remember when Gravity and The Revenant were pulling off similar shit? Even La La Land… This only proves it’s a strong movie for the tech wins, which we already knew. In the important categories, its only likely win is director. And it’s competitive for picture. That’s it.
“Plus, it’s still ahead on most prognosticator sites and in Vegas.”
I don’t know about Vegas, but it’s quite clearly not ahead (anymore) in terms of the odds the online betting sites give it: https://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-picture
I agree that, perception-wise, maybe some think it’s a juggernaut. But that says nothing about its chances. Presumed juggernauts lose all the time, thus proving they’re not actual juggernauts.
Hey, I’m the one who posted that I think SHAPE only has a 40% chance of winning right now, about even with BILLBOARDS and with GET OUT and LADY BIRD splitting the other 20%. Sorry, if the use of the term ‘juggernaut’ threw you. I just think it’s an average movie who’s stature is way above it’s actual accomplishment – a ‘juggernaut’ in that way.
Overpraised – yes! Couldn’t agree more! 🙂
I honestly hope Three Billboards doesn’t win because I’m already tired of all the uproar about the movie. Imagine it winning Best Picture, it would never end!
In my own personal rankings it ranks for sure behind “Dunkirk” and “Lady Bird” but I’m also kind of at the point now where I’m hoping it wins. Plus there would just be something fitting about a film winning that’s so much about what we do with our anger and lashing out at others.
Agreed. Love it or hate it, Three Billboards is the most 2017 movie of 2017.
Get Out would like some words with you.
Get Out is more universal, in my opinion.
I don’t see why, Get Out more than any of the other nominees feels like a relic of the Obama years. No one still labors under the delusion that we’re “Post-racial.”
I’ll be livid if it wins, and I agree with all the criticism of it, but even I fear the uproar that would happen.
I personally cannot wait for it to win, if only to see the outrage it produces. It will be one of the great battles of the natural world, much like the sperm whale and the giant squid fight each other for supremacy of the ocean deep.
So agree would love it to win but the uproar would last into the next Oscar season and then the Oscar season would just be infinite.
“The only pure hero in the acting categories predicted to win is Gary Oldman playing one of the most influential heroes of all time, Winston Churchill.”
Wow. I just… wow. I mean there is tone deaf and then there is denying his role in a famine that killed millions.
Sasha, and most yanks, still don’t get that Churchill ain’t the hero they think he is. Sure, he smashed the Nazis, but his views, from the ’40s, are in the same ballpark as Trump.
But he had those views back then, which is much more understandable than Trump having them now. (Not to say they’re understandable in the absolute – just relative to this.)
Plus he didn’t exactly show the greatest judgement in WWI
Yeah, Churchill was pretty much like Nigel Farage, just with a little bit of sense in his head to know that there was no negotiating with or cajoling Hitler. That alone makes him better than most politicians at that time, which says much more about the time than about Churchill.
It is possible that a man like Winston Churchill did terrible things to India and was also instrumental in saving England and all of Europe from the Nazi threat. It might surprise you to learn that people are complicated.
Oh please. I’m not the one lauding him as “one of the most influential heroes of all time”. Talk about black-and-white thinking.
He is both.
“pure hero”
He is both a hero and a villain. Most great men of history were not kind men. Churchill was a dinosaur in many ways, even back in 1930s Britain, and yet he was the man who saved the nation at a critical moment. It does not excuse his terrible legacy in India any more than said legacy erases the monumental good he did in Europe.
so then he’s not a pure hero
I never said that he was a “pure” hero. That would be OP. I have merely stated my piece on my own behalf.
My jaw dropped when I read that line. Pure hero my foot. I grew up in India, we remember what a monster Churchill was even if he is a saint/hero compared to Hitler. It is important to not get carried away while praising a historical figure.
One might argue, Churchill was good for his era. That is not true either, there were many folks in the British Parliament who understood the atrocities committed by the British against the colonies and spoke out against those atrocities. Churchill was not one of them.
[Very marginally off-topic:]
Having finally seen Phantom Thread yesterday, I can once again invite all of those willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and help us all better understand how this year’s race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot works, in general. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all who will, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes, these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) One interesting thing I will point out about the previous years’ results (which can be checked out, in detail, at the bottom of this post), is that the movie most people consider likely to have come in second place in the Best Picture race at the Oscars has finished in exactly second place in these every single time, for the last four years in a row, so perhaps this is something to look out for this year as well… So, without further ado…
7th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
Please rank the Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you want each of them to win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rank them according to your own tastes and wishes instead, of course)!
I would say, ideally, a voter should have at least seen all of the following, which are the only ones I find likely to win or come close to winning this simulation – or win at the Academy Awards themselves -, based on what I’ve heard about other, similar polls taken this year, and so on: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (I’ve listed them in alphabetical order, so as to minimally influence voting.) And maybe also Phantom Thread. I’m thinking this would be best because I expect even Academy voters, in this day and age, will pretty much have all seen at least the 2-3 (and, in this year’s case, maybe 4-5) movies that have the best chances of winning the Oscar in any given year, before completing their ballots. Beyond this, there are no guidelines. Vote as you like, but rank all of those first six I mentioned, please, don’t leave them off your ballot, or I might decide to not count it!
Voting will be open, I suspect, for no more than 3-4 days – I think there are solid reasons to do it this way. If somebody tells me they’re about to go see the last key contender they haven’t seen yet, and then want to vote, then I’ll, of course, extend the deadline for another day or two, like I did in previous years.
My ballot for this year (with a fairly obvious strategic placing of a certain movie, which 99% won’t help said movie at all, but also can’t hurt/alter anything significant):
1. The Post
2. Dunkirk
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Shape of Water
9. Call Me By Your Name
(My mother won’t be voting this year, as she just hasn’t seen enough of the nominees, and hasn’t seen The Shape of Water or Call Me By Your Name, of the strongest ones.)
The previous years’ results:
2011 The Social Network — details not saved
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty —– 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her —————— 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on 1st round 1st places
2015 Birdman ————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight ———— 41-32 over La La Land
1. CMBYN
2. The Shape of Water
3. Phantom Thread
4. Three Billboards
5. Dunkirk
6. The Post
7. Get Out
8. Lady Bird
9. Darkest Hour
1 Call Me By Your Name
2 Phantom Thread
3 Dunkirk
4 Lady Bird
5 Shape of Water
6 Get Out
7 Three Billboards
8 The Post
9 Darkest Hour
1. Three Billboards
2. Get Out
3. Darkest Hour
4. The Post
5. Phantom Thread
6. CMBYN
7. The Shape of Water
8. Lady Bird
9. Dunkirk
shape
phantom
dunkirk
go
cbyn
3b
ladybird
post
dh
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
Lady Bird
Three Billboards
Shape of Water
CMBYN
The Post
Get Out
Darkest Hour
1. Get Out
2. Dunkirk
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Phantom Thread
5. The Shape of Water
6. The Post
7. Lady Bird
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Darkest Hour
My ballot for this year. What I like,
1,2. The Shape of Water/Call Me By Your Name
3. Ladybird
4,5. Dunkirk/GetOut
6. Phantom Thread
7. The Post
8. Darkest Hour
9. 3Bills
What I think (hope) might happen.
1. The shape of water
2. 3Bills
3. Getout
4. CMBYN
5,6. Dunkirk and Ladybird
7,8. The Post and Phantom Thread
9. Darkest Hour
1. The Shape of Water
2. Call Me By Your Name
3. Lady Bird
4. Get Out
5. Dunkirk
6. The Post
7. Phantom Thread
8. Darkest Hour
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1 Call Me By Your Name
2 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
3 Phantom Thread
4 Dunkirk
5 Lady Bird
6 The Post
7 The Shape of Water
8 Get Out
9 Darkest Hour
1. Lady Bird
2. three Billboards
3.Get Out
4. Dunkirk
5. Call Me By Your Name
6. Darkest Hour
7.Shape of Water
8. The Post.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
9. Phantom Thread
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Get Out
3. The Shape Of Water
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Phantom Thread
7. The Post
8. Three Billboards
9. Darkest Hour
1. Three Billboards
2. Dunkirk
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Phantom Thread
5. The Shape of Water
6. Get Out
7. Lady Bird
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Post
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Dunkirk
3. Phantom Thread
4. Lady Bird
5. Three Billboards
6. Get Out
7. The Shape of Water
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing
4. Call Me by Your Name
5. Lady Bird
6. Get Out
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
1. Call me by your Name
2. Phantom Thread
3. Three Billboards
4. Ladybird
5. Get Out
6. Dunkirk
7. The Post
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Shape of Water
1.Get Out
2.The Shape of Water
3.Three Billboards
4.Phantom Thread
5.Call Me By Your Name
6.Darkest Hour
7.Durnkirk
8. The Post
9.Lady Bird
1 – Phantom Thread
2 – The Shape of Water
3 – Call Me By Your Name
4 – Dunkirk
5 – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6 – Get Out
7 – Lady Bird
8 – The Post
9 – Darkest Hour
1. Phantom Thread
2. Lady Bird
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Dunkirk
5. Get Out
6. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
7. The Shape of Water
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
1. Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
3. Get Out
4. The Post
5. Ladybird
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. Phantom Thread
8. Darkest Hour
9. Three Billboards
jonathan groff in mindhunter >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> olman in darkest hour
amid all the mediocrity im just gonna rewatch Mindhunter’s last 2 eps tonight
Jonathan Groff does Emmy-caliber work, especially in Episode 10. And he just won a Satellite Award for Best Actor in a TV Drama. But why isn’t this show getting nominated by SAG & the Emmys? Cameron Britton deserves prizes for his creepy Ed Kemper, too!
Three Billboards not winning would be a surprise. I prefer at least four other nominees, but I think it has shown all season that it has the raw nerve and wherewithal to get it done.
A fairly wrought piece, why does the US have to be so self-obsessed all the time? At the end of the day it will follow peer pressure from the likes of the AACTAs and BAFTAs and recognise 3B. Get Out, Lady Bird and The Post are the only nominees this year which you could say are unmistakably American.
Looking forward to loathing Mute later tonight.
Didn’t like Moon? Ideally, for me, it would be a return to that kind of form for this filmmaker, but not expecting that much.
I liked Moon when I first saw it, but revisiting it was such a non-event for me. Jones isn’t my kind of guy, more importantly though, Netflix’s track record is starting to scrape the gutter and I am losing a lot of faith in their originals.
While I disagree about MOON. I watched it several times and still love it. I agree with NETFLIX’s originals. They’re making too much too fast and most things just look bad. I’ll at least watch MUTE though.
I loved Moon and still do but frankly I’m becoming more and more certain that Jones was a one hit wonder.
Also while they have done some great films (Mudbound) I’m getting more cynical about Netflix films.
Lady Bird is going to win. It’s the one nominated movie everyone (well, almost everyone) likes. After reading all of the ongoing conversations, it’s my gut reaction. The Shape of Water loses some of its initial magic halfway through; as many people hate 3 Billboards as those who love it; Get Out is too genre despite it brilliance…it’s all been said. It reminds me of Annie Hall winning, a “little” film that people loved.
The lack of precursors make me really doubt that, and there isn’t as much conversation about it as any of the big three (Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, Get Out)
I am afraid you are wrong. My predictions say Three Billboards has the most likely chance of winning, followed by The Shape of Water and Get Out as a possible dark horse.
Everyone I know hated Lady Bird. But then again, we’re POC and Lady Bird is a character none of us could connect with despite being younger than Greta Gerwig. Loved Get Out, Three Billboards, Phantom Thread, Shape of Water.
Where are you getting all the lady bird love
I’m for The Shape of Water. It will hold up well over time – the performances, the production, the special effects, and the message.
Three Billboards is heavy handed. It’s the sort of movie that will induce groans from future critics. The performances are great even if the story is contrived.
I enjoy Frances McDormand’s Mildred, but the character will become outdated soon enough. She seems “edgy” the way that the performances in I Want to Live! (Susan Hayward) and The Three Faces of Eve (Joanne Woodward) used to be considered edgy. Looking back, you just kind of tell yourself “I guess they had different standards back then”. Sam Rockwell’s character is the more interesting dynamic of that story, because of his performance. Woody Harrelson is just doing Woody Harrelson.
Timothee Chalamet is unfortunately dead-in-the-water going against Oldman’s Oscar bait, Churchill biopic. The Academy has never awarded a Best Actor so young… not even close. I think it’s beyond the old fraternity’s capability to do so.
Again with the biopic Oscar bait – Allison Janney looks like she’ll be rewarded for I, Tonya, over Laurie Metcalf’s original creation.
3Bs is inducing groans from me already. I’d love to see Calamet, Ronan, Metcalf and Plummer win- but itis not likely to happen. Of those four I think Metcalf has the only real chance. I hope we see at least one surprise acting award March 4.
I agree with Three Billboards being heavy handed – there are so many points where the script is hitting you over the head with the message (eg that speech comparing gangs to churches) and it feels unsubtle as hell. I know the Crash comparison is overdone, but I see it. Also, it’s a film with heavy themes of race without any fleshed out non-white characters.
This is a great piece of writing.
whens votin ends again
Still haven’t seen Dunkirk and CMBYN, so my ranking for the remaining 7 goes like this:
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Post
6. Darkest Hour
7. Phantom Thread
Phantom Thread being last doesn’t mean I didn’t like the movie. In fact, I actually really liked all of those.
And for the first time in a while, I was impressed with every actor nominated I’ve seen so far.
If there’s something these movies got right, it’s the great acting.
This year is such a meh year for me. I don’t care about most of the nominees. I love CMBYN and Phantom Thread. I like Lady Bird and The Shape of Water. Beyond this, I just don’t give a damn. And I’ve seen all nine nominees. I even sat through Three Billboards three times!
TERRIFIC
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Phantom Thread
VERY GOOD
3. Lady Bird
GOOD
4. The Shape of Water
MIXED
5. Get Out
6. Dunkirk
AVERAGE
7. The Post
8. Darkest Hour
I ABSOLUTELY HATE THIS ONE
9. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Exceeded Expectations
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Lived Up to Hype
Call Me By Your Name
Get Out
Three Billboards
Dunkirk
Overrated
Lady Bird
Darkest Hour
WTF
The Post (I have seen enough of Meryl Streep sitting in chairs and speaking about important things to last me the rest of my natural life)
I’ve seen 6 of the 9 and liked them all… I think the lowest score I gave any of them is 7/10. And that’s usually because of little to no replay value hurting their scores. All of them have been very good/ well made films though.
raves pouring in for love simon lol
Is this true or a fantasy?
Three Billboards winning award after award is like that bad cold you just can’t afford to get at the moment, then you get it, you’re out of NyQuil, you can barely breathe for weeks, & then the cold lasts longer than you expected & turns into bronchitis but you just have to get through it.
Funny you just described what i struggling with…well maybe it simply that we all literally getting sivk and tired of oscars excuses lame weak underwhelming to public of how to use social commentary in real world to excuse thrm from doing EVERYTHING they can to avoid embracing their true AMPAS values in choice for best picture. Maybe moat of our immune systems are being eaten away by relentless social self justified thought police that get in to our heads…and hrnve make us literally sick …coincidence i become very sick as oscar race near it end perhaps?
Or…. you know the Best Picture is a reflection of our thoughts about our culture at the moment the way they have in many other eras such as the Vietnam War, World War II etc. Just because you seem to find yourself on the wrong side of where history will end up (like the people who were cheering FOR the Vietnam War at the time) doesn’t mean the awards have changed.
Yea well might be minority of opinions here….no idea what on earth so called ” side of history ” u talking about. Dont know bout you but i know for fact it oscar uslf and minotity of others who wrong side of history. If indeed contenders reflecting our culture all you say explain to me how even ” best “oscar ratings are well below par what they used to be? No buddy. History ought to tell you that trawling through social activist pool of movies only marginalizes disilussions silent majority i am sorry to tell you audience public ratings of oscar are public way of saying that they fed up with oscar not taking inti account other films that matter. Ratings in decline more than ever in oscars history publiv support overall for oscars choices make people more divided disconnected from oscars delusions of grandeur through choices they make. So you i wonder no difference between history of trend of oscar from 1950’s through to 1980’s ? I strongly suggest you look at differencr reflected by ratings in contrast to today and learn understand how and why major decline in public support for todays film.choices as favourite pushing more and more people away.
Answer is simple if you care to work it out u insist i on” wrong side of history ” so? I assuke u can answerqiestion easily ey?
– Oscar ratings down due to combination of more entertainment options as well as movies that no longer reflect the public popularity as before. Audiences don’t give out Oscars members of the Academy do which reinforces my point about why some win. You want popular movies that win awards go find the Perople’s Choice Award message boards. And the wrong side of history is always the one fighting against freedom, equality and the better side of our natures. (AGAINST segregation, racism, sexism, homophobia, etc.) Name ONE civil rights movement that failed in the long run. THAT is the wrong side and it is usually indicated by the people pouting abut the success of the other.
Oh come on. All dentists deserve to have their thumbs drilled. Greedy bastards.
Anyway, I hope GET OUT wins because I think it’s the best one.
It is a complete misunderstanding of the preferential system to think a divisive film has to win in the first round. It doesn’t.
In Australia, we have situations where all other candidates might recommend voters preferences against the leading one, but there is “preference leaking” that is, the leading one picks up enough preferences from the other candidates to win.
3 B doesn’t have to win on round one. It just has to be far enough ahead, and pick up enough votes from other films, to win
I find this quite an odd analysis that 3Bs will win, given the Oscar Squad had it at #4 last week and Sasha has this at #2. Quite a flip.
Gold derby has almost flipped for 3Bs now
Shape 37.55
3Bs 36.55
Get Out 14
I think 3 Bs will win. Damn that SAG ensemble stat !!
OT: I never got around to posting this here, so here is my Top 25 of 2017…
1. Get Out
2. World of Tomorrow Episode II: The Burden of Other People’s Thoughts
3. Dunkirk
4. Kedi
5. A Ghost Story
6. The Square
7. Blade Runner 2049
8. The Killing of a Sacred Deer
9. Strong Island
10. Good Time
11. The Work
12. Faces Places
13. BPM (Beats Per Minute)
14. War For The Planet of The Apes
15. Call Me By Your Name
16. Phantom Thread
17. Wonder
18. Coco
19. Lucky
20. I, Tonya
21. Baby Driver
22. It Comes At Night
23. The Insult
24. Stronger
25. mother!
I like it very much! Obviously, there are things I disagree with, as well, but that’s inevitable.
Of the ones I’ve seen, Get Out, Dunkirk, BPM, War For The Planet of The Apes, Baby Driver and mother! are also in my current top 25, and several others are close. And Get Out and Dunkirk are at least in my top 7, probably higher. Haven’t seen your other top 3 entry.
shit i still havent seen wot2 bet i wouldnt have rescinded the category on my ballot had it seen it on time
Just gotta say….your writing, as ever…is brilliant. That’s all. ;-).
Greta Gerwig ripped off Real Women Have Curves. No one would care about Lady Bird if it had a brown cast, but because it has a whiny white girl front and center, we’re supposed to interpret it as some kind of “relatable” feminist statement? It’s not. It’s white privilege at its worst. The only POC in the movie gets accused of affirmative action by Lady Bird, and that’s pretty much all we see of him smh.
Something tells me you did not like Lady Bird.
Give it a break.
How appropriate in the year of Get Out that another contender is an example of white people taking credit and acclaim for black people’s work and culture.
Yeah, just like no one cared about Moonllight because it had a brown cast. STFU.
[As in previous years, I’m going to re-post this a few times – probably this one and one more – in this thread alone, for optimum visibility and to try to get as many voters as possible. I will also re-post it in other threads, later – only once per thread.]
Having finally seen Phantom Thread yesterday, I can once again invite all of those willing to share their picks to post their rankings for this traditional BP voting simulation I’ve done pretty much every year since 2011, and help us all better understand how this year’s race might shape up, as well as how the preferential ballot works, in general. I will, as always, post detailed, round-by-round descriptions of how the count went, and so on, at the end… Many thanks to all who have participated in these simulations in past years, as well as to all who will, perhaps, take part in them for the first time this year!
Sometimes, these are mostly indicative of the internet’s favorites, but sometimes they can also be very telling for what will happen at the Oscars. (Like in 2015 and 2017, when the winners were the same for both.) One interesting thing I will point out about the previous years’ results (which can be checked out, in detail, at the bottom of this post), is that the movie most people consider likely to have come in second place in the Best Picture race at the Oscars has finished in exactly second place in these every single time, for the last four years in a row, so perhaps this is something to look out for this year as well… So, without further ado…
7th Annual Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation:
Please rank the Best Picture nominees this year, according to how much (or how little) you want each of them to win the Oscar! In other words, just as if you were a voting Academy member (except, don’t try to think like one of them would, but rank them according to your own tastes and wishes instead, of course)!
I would say, ideally, a voter should have at least seen all of the following, which are the only ones I find likely to win or come close to winning this simulation – or win at the Academy Awards themselves -, based on what I’ve heard about other, similar polls taken this year, and so on: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (I’ve listed them in alphabetical order, so as to minimally influence voting.) And maybe also Phantom Thread. I’m thinking this would be best because I expect even Academy voters, in this day and age, will pretty much have all seen at least the 2-3 (and, in this year’s case, maybe 4-5) movies that have the best chances of winning the Oscar in any given year, before completing their ballots. Beyond this, there are no guidelines. Vote as you like, but rank all of those first six I mentioned, please, don’t leave them off your ballot, or I might decide to not count it!
Voting will be open, I suspect, for no more than 3-4 days – I think there are solid reasons to do it this way. If somebody tells me they’re about to go see the last key contender they haven’t seen yet, and then want to vote, then I’ll, of course, extend the deadline for another day or two, like I did in previous years.
My ballot for this year (with a fairly obvious strategic placing of a certain movie, which 99% won’t help said movie at all, but also can’t hurt/alter anything significant):
1. The Post
2. Dunkirk
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Shape of Water
9. Call Me By Your Name
(My mother won’t be voting this year, as she just hasn’t seen enough of the nominees, and hasn’t seen The Shape of Water or Call Me By Your Name, of the strongest ones.)
The previous years’ results:
2011 The Social Network — details not saved
2012 – not held –
2013 Zero Dark Thirty —– 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her —————— 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on 1st round 1st places
2015 Birdman ————– 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road — 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight ———— 41-32 over La La Land
1. Call Me By Your Name
2.Three Billboards outside, Ebbing Missouri
3. The Shape of Water
4. Phantom Thread
5. Dunkirk
6. Lady Bird
7. Get Out
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
(Haven’t seen DH)
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Dunkirk
4. Phantom Thread
5. The Shape of Water
6. Lady Bird
7. Get Out
8. The Post
1. Three Billboards
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Get Out
5. Phantom Thread
6. Lady Bird
7. Call Me by Your Name
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
1. Get Out
2. The Shape of Water
3. Call Me by Your Name
4. Phantom Thread
5. Dunkirk
6. Lady Bird
7. Three Billboards
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour
1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. Get Out
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. Three Billboards
8. Darkest Hour
9. The Post
1. Dunkirk
2. Call Me By Your Name
3. Lady Bird
4. Three Billboards
5. The Post
6. Phantom Thread
7. Get Out
8. The Shape of Water
9. Darkest Hour
1. Phantom Thread
2. Get out
3. Dunkirk
4. Shape of Water
5. Darkest Hour
6. Three Billboards
My top 3 I rank as all excellent films and totally deserving the nominations, I only disliked Three Billboards very much.
(haven´t seen The Post, Lady Bird and CMBYN yet)
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Dunkirk
3. The Post
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. The Shape of Water
6. Darkest Hour
7. Lady Bird
8. Get Out
9. Phantom Thread
1. Three Billboards (Driving anger/controversy because it is too close to home. Angry people not really accomplishing anything but feeling good doing it)
2. Shape of Water (Beautifully filmed reinterpretation of the plot from ET with plot twist ending)
3. Get Out (Credit for doing a what is usually white done genre and giving it new relevance)
4. Dunkirk (Like another well done restaging of a familiar Shakespeare play)
5. Lady Bird (We’re quibbling with tiny score differences here)
6. The Post (Not allowed to be TOO obvious about “importance” these days)
7. Darkest Hour (One for the Baby Boomers)
8. Call Me By Your Name (At risk of my tribe kicking me out, I was bored)
9. Phantom Thread (Something the Method Acting cultists would have done back in my college theater program. Done well but ever so eye-roll inducing)
Cool! You must be the only other person besides me to have both Call Me By Your Name (same reason for me) and Phantom Thread (which I have two places higher because at least that one had some fascinating characters, I thought) in the bottom three of their rankings!… (I tally everything at the end, so I haven’t checked out most of the other votes yet – but I don’t remember seeing any besides us.)
Sorry I’m quite late voting, took me a while to sort out my final ballot before I voted in all but if these:
1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. CMBYN
4. Get Out
5. Dunkirk
6. 3 Billboards
7. Darkest Hour
8. Lady Bird
9. The Post
Late’s just as good as early! 🙂 I’m keeping it open until something like Monday night, anyway, at the request of someone from IMDb who said they were seeing the final key movies that day.
I thought Shape began to wobble after BAFTA, but that sleazy plagiarism hit the day after the voting started I think hands it BP
The Shape of Water will walk away with Director, Production Design and Original Score. I am sure that Three Billboards will win Best Picture in an Argo-type win.
I would have agreed with you, but the hit on Shape was so sleazy I think the film will get undecideds breaking towards it. Del Toro is really LIKED in the industry
We shall see.
Interesting… I can kind of see voters reacting that way (though it doesn’t strike me as anything close to guaranteed that they would, unless they already loved The Shape of Water), but I can’t imagine they’d do it en masse. I don’t think they would give it that much importance. Surely such accusations, even unjustified ones, happen fairly often!… Anyway, even if Shape does win, we’ll never know whether that was the reason, and it seems to me more like wishful thinking than sound logic to assume it might be.
In what is clearly a tight race you don’t need to change too many minds
But IS IT such a tight race?! 🙂 Three Billboards seems pretty beloved to me, despite its directing achievements not being as praised. If it’s tight, sure, but, again, I don’t necessarily agree that it WILL change anyone’s minds to such an extent as to all of a sudden put Shape ahead of Three Billboards when they weren’t before…
It was never that close ; 3 Bills was a runaway victor at BAFTA
guys, can u recommend shows…to give u an idea of my taste i just saw this chart and saw mindhunter is no.46 and i think its superior to everything above it except the vietnam war, k appreciate it, thanks
http://www.metacritic.com/browse/tv/score/metascore/year/filtered?year_selected=2017
Bryce, I’ve been raving about Babylon Berlin since last October (back then it was only broadcast in Europe without English subtitles, so I couldn’t follow the plot. But it already knocked me out, visually.)
A few weeks ago Netflix quietly dropped the first 16 episodes with English subs. And I can’t shut up about it.
Here’s me swooning about the last 15 minutes of episode 2:
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/962537723126059008
You’re right. Mindhunter is miles above any other series of the past several months.
“Ridley Scott Says ‘Mindhunter’ is the Best TV Show on Air Right Now …
You and Ridley. Two of a kind.
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/960019365990141952
MINDHUNTER is the best show I’ve seen in years. I’m not a huge TV guy, but I was addicted in minutes and can’t wait for season 2.
Mosaic > everything on that list
I forgot about that. I need to see it. Few things have been as good as The Knick.
Bojack Horseman Season 4 was more impactful and memorable than most things on that list IMO. If you haven’t seen the show, bear in mind the first season starts slow, but it builds and builds in writing and character quality and creativity to the point where every season it has is my show of the year now.
You’re not the first to recommend this one to me!
DARK on Netflix is fvcking phenomenal! My favorite show is Mindhunter & Penny Dreadful, & I watched this after and was blown away!
Metacritic is not wrong, The Leftovers was not only the best television show of 2017, it was the best filmed entertainment — big screen, small screen, TV, film, comedy, drama — of the year. The fact that Carrie Coon didn’t have trophies thrown at her all season long is a travesty, she acts circles around this entire Best Actress lineup.
I still feel it’s between 3B and LB. Probably come down to 2nds and 3rds.
But didn’t you say that Call Me By Your Name won your poll through first place votes alone? Since in this season a stat or two is going to be destroyed, why does Call Me By Your Name get left out of the conversation? It’s certainly more deserving than some of your proposed front runners and how interesting that a gay love story is no longer considered progressive. Oh right, they would need to be black or transgender or alien to matter.
> how interesting that a gay love story is no longer considered progressive
You should tell that to the Academy, since they are the ones who awarded Best Picture to La La Land last year.
I agree with you about the poll thing, especially because every film has something working against it in the Best Picture conversation. Obviously CMBYN has a lot going against it. But I think what is being forgotten is that CMBYN is the only film going into the Oscars with a guaranteed screenplay win. These polls are being chalked up as an internet bubble, and that well may be true. But it seems unwise to throw it completely out of the conversation. I don’t count it out at all.
Because the internet doesn’t vote for the Oscars.
Call Me By Your Name isn’t in the conversation because it completely lacks any sort of precursor momentum and Sony Classic hasn’t done anywhere near enough marketing for it. It’s not because of your “black or transgender or alien” nonsense theory (if that transphobic conspiracy theory of yours was true, A Fantastic Woman would be nominated more, and Eddie Redmayne would’ve won for his disastrous performance in The Danish Girl)
As slimy as James Woods’ NAMBLA hit on the film was, I think their campaigners needed to come up with a better initial retort than semantics about age of consent law in Italy
“Disastrous.” Right.
On another note, since there’s been some talk that no SAG Ensemble winner that lost the PGA and DGA has ever won Best Picture without winning the WGA first (which is certainly true, but also, as I’ve been saying, irrelevant this year, with the SAG winner not being eligible for the WGA, especially since it looks like it would have been the stats favorite to win there), I’ll throw a similar observation of my own out there: since 2001, when BAFTA became an Oscar precursor for the first time, no PGA winner, irrespective of whether it won or lost the DGA, has won Best Picture without first winning either SAG Ensemble or BAFTA Best Film. Which The Shape of Water has been unable to do this year. (Not all PGA winners that won one of the two did go on to win Best Picture, of course, although 8 of the last 9 did – and 11/15 overall. 6/7 for the preferential years – La La Land is the only one that didn’t. So, it’s not sufficient to win the PGA and one of those two, but it looks like it might be necessary. It should also be noted that, unsurprisingly, the four PGA winners that managed to win both SAG and BAFTA during this 17-year span all won Best Picture.)
Three PGA winners have fallen to this rule so far: Moulin Rouge! (2001), Gravity (2013) – which even won the DGA, but also only tied for the PGA win – and The Big Short. The Shape of Water is, of course, a bit stronger than each of these, even going by these indicators alone, because it won the DGA and didn’t tie with any other movie for the PGA win, but, likewise, Three Billboards is at least a bit stronger than all of the SAG Ensemble winners to have not won the WGA and then lost BP so far (and much stronger than most of them, even taking the directing snub into account), so this “stat” is no more irrelevant than that one. (Personally, I think they’re both equally likely to be irrelevant, but the SAG-WGA one strikes me as even more at risk of being misleading in the context of this year’s race, for reasons I’ve already pointed out.)
So are you still predicting 3B or did you switch to Shape of Water? What do you think of Sasha’s point about the BAFTA/SAG combo?
Of course I’m still predicting Three Billboards. 🙂
“What do you think of Sasha’s point about the BAFTA/SAG combo?”
I was aware of those precedents. Good for Three Billboards, obviously…
I will not switch to The Shape of Water either now or at any later point, because it’s the winner my industry stats-only system predicts. There’s no reason to switch. That’s going to be my official prediction no matter what. It’s also currently my intuitive prediction, and I expect it to stay that way until Oscar night. (Not much left that could happen to change that.)
Can’t wait for this shit show to be over. I used to love Oscar Season. Now that it’s become Angry Political Hot Take Season, I just want it to go away.
Ken, hang in there buddy. This happens almost every year. The moment oscar telecast is over, (mostly) everyone is back to being friends and appreciating movies for what they are.
🙂 Exactly.
Except for the winner, which gets torn apart almost no matter which of the nominees it was. 🙂
Brace yourself – it’s about to get a lot worse.
I find it amusing. All of these people are in one way or another, complicit with the dirty dealings of a cesspool industry. They can wear black in solidarity and stand up and loudly and proudly proclaim how they will not stand for abuse and mistreatment and then at the end of the night they will climb back into their limos and drive home to their McMansions and go about their lives in a happy little bubble they have created for themselves. They don’t believe a word they say – these words are for their audience. They are actors, through and through.
Exactly. My favorite move critic wrote a piece on Patreon recently about how George C. Scott famously denounced the Oscars, and that if actors REALLY want to take a stand on these issues, they should skip the show altogether.
I’ll be honest – I miss the times of the epic sweeps like Titanic or The Return of The King.
Nowadays, it’s always a stance for something or against something. I agree with you.
“Angry Political Hot Take Season”
🙂 Well put!
hallway/elevator showdown between wife and groff some of the best shit Fincher has ever directed…stunning.
I’m still leaning 3 BILLBOARDS – but, my faith is shaky. SHAPE seems to be such a juggernaut in many circles (full disclosure, it’s my 9th fave in a field of 9!), that it’s easy to see why many are saying it’s the slight frontrunner (Gold Derby, Guru’s of Gold, Hollywood elsewhere etc). I’m not the biggest BILLBOARDS fan (my #6), but, it at least has the patina of substance.
On Oscar night, if BILLBOARDS wins screenplay in a tough category with GET OUT and LADY BIRD, then I’ll feel fairly confidant of a win for Best Picture. If not….nail biter ’til Warren Beatty gets the corrected envelope.
In a showdown between 3 Billboards and Shape of Water, I guess my vote would be going to 3 Billboards (I rank it 7th) over Shape of Water (9th). It’s hard to get enthusiastic about that possibility. Fyi, my #1 is The Post, which is obvious roadkill and a guarantee that my ballot would be going to something else.
You and me both in the “Least objectionable” frontrunner to ‘root’ for race, eh? In my decades of Oscar watching, I’ve never been less enthusiastic for the frontrunners than this year. My #1 or #2 rarely wins, but, #6 and #9!? Eeek
If it was really such a juggernaut, wouldn’t MORE people think it’s the frontrunner? It’s not got even 50% of the pundits’ predictions on its side at Gold Derby…
The better argument for it is the preferential ballot. I don’t think it’s a juggernaut, but it might win for being the slightly less divisive of the only two that can win (if Get Out does turn out to not be as strong as many are assuming, that is.)
I was talking macro and not just the current odds. 13 Oscar nominations, lots of critics prizes, Guild awards (even winning costume over a movie ABOUT costumes!). Plus, it’s still ahead on most prognosticator sites and in Vegas.
“even winning costume over a movie ABOUT costumes”
🙂 Remember when Gravity and The Revenant were pulling off similar shit? Even La La Land… This only proves it’s a strong movie for the tech wins, which we already knew. In the important categories, its only likely win is director. And it’s competitive for picture. That’s it.
“Plus, it’s still ahead on most prognosticator sites and in Vegas.”
I don’t know about Vegas, but it’s quite clearly not ahead (anymore) in terms of the odds the online betting sites give it: https://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-picture
I agree that, perception-wise, maybe some think it’s a juggernaut. But that says nothing about its chances. Presumed juggernauts lose all the time, thus proving they’re not actual juggernauts.
Hey, I’m the one who posted that I think SHAPE only has a 40% chance of winning right now, about even with BILLBOARDS and with GET OUT and LADY BIRD splitting the other 20%. Sorry, if the use of the term ‘juggernaut’ threw you. I just think it’s an average movie who’s stature is way above it’s actual accomplishment – a ‘juggernaut’ in that way.
I honestly hope Three Billboards doesn’t win because I’m already tired of all the uproar about the movie. Imagine it winning Best Picture, it would never end!
In my own personal rankings it ranks for sure behind “Dunkirk” and “Lady Bird” but I’m also kind of at the point now where I’m hoping it wins. Plus there would just be something fitting about a film winning that’s so much about what we do with our anger and lashing out at others.
Agreed. Love it or hate it, Three Billboards is the most 2017 movie of 2017.
Get Out would like some words with you.
Get Out is more universal, in my opinion.
I’ll be livid if it wins, and I agree with all the criticism of it, but even I fear the uproar that would happen.
I personally cannot wait for it to win, if only to see the outrage it produces. It will be one of the great battles of the natural world, much like the sperm whale and the giant squid fight each other for supremacy of the ocean deep.
So agree would love it to win but the uproar would last into the next Oscar season and then the Oscar season would just be infinite.
jonathan groff in mindhunter >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> olman in darkest hour
amid all the mediocrity im just gonna rewatch Mindhunter’s last 2 eps tonight
Jonathan Groff does Emmy-caliber work, especially in Episode 10. And he just won a Satellite Award for Best Actor in a TV Drama. But why isn’t this show getting nominated by SAG & the Emmys? Cameron Britton deserves prizes for his creepy Ed Kemper, too!
Three Billboards not winning would be a surprise. I prefer at least four other nominees, but I think it has shown all season that it has the raw nerve and wherewithal to get it done.
A fairly wrought piece, why does the US have to be so self-obsessed all the time? At the end of the day it will follow peer pressure from the likes of the AACTAs and BAFTAs and recognise 3B. Get Out, Lady Bird and The Post are the only nominees this year which you could say are unmistakably American.
Lady Bird is going to win. It’s the one nominated movie everyone (well, almost everyone) likes. After reading all of the ongoing conversations, it’s my gut reaction. The Shape of Water loses some of its initial magic halfway through; as many people hate 3 Billboards as those who love it; Get Out is too genre despite it brilliance…it’s all been said. It reminds me of Annie Hall winning, a “little” film that people loved.
The lack of precursors make me really doubt that, and there isn’t as much conversation about it as any of the big three (Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, Get Out)
I am afraid you are wrong. My predictions say Three Billboards has the most likely chance of winning, followed by The Shape of Water and Get Out as a possible dark horse.
Everyone I know hated Lady Bird. But then again, we’re POC and Lady Bird is a character none of us could connect with despite being younger than Greta Gerwig. Loved Get Out, Three Billboards, Phantom Thread, Shape of Water.
Where are you getting all the lady bird love
I’m for The Shape of Water. It will hold up well over time – the performances, the production, the special effects, and the message.
Three Billboards is heavy handed. It’s the sort of movie that will induce groans from future critics. The performances are great even if the story is contrived.
I enjoy Frances McDormand’s Mildred, but the character will become outdated soon enough. She seems “edgy” the way that the performances in I Want to Live! (Susan Hayward) and The Three Faces of Eve (Joanne Woodward) used to be considered edgy. Looking back, you just kind of tell yourself “I guess they had different standards back then”. Sam Rockwell’s character is the more interesting dynamic of that story, because of his performance. Woody Harrelson is just doing Woody Harrelson.
Timothee Chalamet is unfortunately dead-in-the-water going against Oldman’s Oscar bait, Churchill biopic. The Academy has never awarded a Best Actor so young… not even close. I think it’s beyond the old fraternity’s capability to do so.
Again with the biopic Oscar bait – Allison Janney looks like she’ll be rewarded for I, Tonya, over Laurie Metcalf’s original creation.
3Bs is inducing groans from me already. I’d love to see Calamet, Ronan, Metcalf and Plummer win- but itis not likely to happen. Of those four I think Metcalf has the only real chance. I hope we see at least one surprise acting award March 4.
I agree with Three Billboards being heavy handed – there are so many points where the script is hitting you over the head with the message (eg that speech comparing gangs to churches) and it feels unsubtle as hell. I know the Crash comparison is overdone, but I see it. Also, it’s a film with heavy themes of race without any fleshed out non-white characters.
This is a great piece of writing.
whens votin ends again
Oh come on. All dentists deserve to have their thumbs drilled. Greedy bastards.
Anyway, I hope GET OUT wins because I think it’s the best one.